Search found 657 matches

by columbia
Sun Jun 17, 2018 5:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio Discussion (Cont'd)
Replies: 658
Views: 151483

Re: Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio Discussion (Cont'd)

Here’s a comparison of PRPFX and Wellesley Income: https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&timePeriod=4&startYear=1985&firstMonth=1&endYear=2018&lastMonth=12&endDate=06%2F15%2F2018&initialAmount=10000&annualOperation=0&annualAdjustment=0&inflationAdjusted=true&annualPercentage=0....
by columbia
Sun Jun 17, 2018 1:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Vanguard's actively managed funds better?
Replies: 11
Views: 1357

Re: Are Vanguard's actively managed funds better?

VHGEX (Global Equity) has outperformed Total World (VTWSX/VT) for the life of the latter.

That might or might not be true in the future.
by columbia
Sat Jun 16, 2018 9:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Approximating total stock market
Replies: 13
Views: 1142

Re: Approximating total stock market

Given the correlation between US large cap and the total US market, just using the former as a proxy for the latter (which is your apparent goal) seems acceptable. It’s also one less detail to worry about, IMO.
by columbia
Sat Jun 16, 2018 11:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio Discussion (Cont'd)
Replies: 658
Views: 151483

Re: Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio Discussion (Cont'd)

Here’s a comparison of PRPFX and Wellesley Income: https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&timePeriod=4&startYear=1985&firstMonth=1&endYear=2018&lastMonth=12&endDate=06%2F15%2F2018&initialAmount=10000&annualOperation=0&annualAdjustment=0&inflationAdjusted=true&annualPercentage=0.0...
by columbia
Sat Jun 16, 2018 11:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Factor-based strategy is better (winer), OK. then who are the losers?
Replies: 55
Views: 2403

Re: Factor-based strategy is better (winer), OK. then who are the losers?

Do non-tilters benefit from others overweighting areas like SCV? If you’re bidding up the prices, am I just paying more for that sub asset class?

I’m probably not asking my question in the best manner, I’ll admit.
by columbia
Sat Jun 16, 2018 8:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gundlach sees 10 yr yields hitting 6%
Replies: 18
Views: 3061

Re: Gundlach sees 10 yr yields hitting 6%

nisiprius wrote:
Sat Jun 16, 2018 8:33 am
cfs wrote:
Sat Jun 16, 2018 7:32 am
Television camera chasers. Gundlach, Bill Gross, and others well-known here. Ignore y gracias por leer / cfs
Bill Gross. There's a name that hasn't come up lately. Think I'll start another thread about that...
A Peter Schiff thread would probably be even more entertaining.
by columbia
Thu Jun 14, 2018 8:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin Price Manipulation
Replies: 34
Views: 4132

Re: Bitcoin Price Manipulation

Just the fact that there was a referendum and 25% voted for the initiative shows that even outside of crypto there is dissatisfaction of monetary system creating money out of thin air backed by nothing. My dollars are backed by the full faith and credit of the US government; “backed by nothing” cer...
by columbia
Thu Jun 14, 2018 3:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Factor-based strategy is better (winer), OK. then who are the losers?
Replies: 55
Views: 2403

Re: Factor-based strategy is better (winer), OK. then who are the losers?

JoMoney wrote:
Thu Jun 14, 2018 3:10 pm
What type of wine do factor-based investors think is best?
The VFVA crowd leans towards Two Buck Chuck.


:beer
by columbia
Thu Jun 14, 2018 2:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is the Dow Jones Industrial Average a useful metric?
Replies: 22
Views: 862

Re: Is the Dow Jones Industrial Average a useful metric?

Looking over the list:
https://money.cnn.com/data/dow30/

Is it sufficiently different diversified? No.
Is it better than stick picking? Absolutely.

Should anyone bother to track its performance and care about daily movements? I certainly don’t.
by columbia
Thu Jun 14, 2018 2:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: MD&P just purchased X / sold Y [md&pharmacist]
Replies: 177
Views: 10191

Re: MD&P just purchased X / sold Y [md&pharmacist]

Hi everyone. A number of Bogleheads have asked me to post how and when I buy such highly performing funds, and sell my under-performers. Barring a major correction/bear, looking to maintain an average 30-40% 1 year annualized return portfolio. I'll start with my last transaction: Purchased DXQLX on...
by columbia
Thu Jun 14, 2018 1:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gundlach sees 10 yr yields hitting 6%
Replies: 18
Views: 3061

Re: Gundlach sees 10 yr yields hitting 6%

Beware those, who stand to make (your) money, should you choose to follow their advice? Then again, that not unique...
by columbia
Wed Jun 13, 2018 6:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Schwab's market predictions next 10 years
Replies: 20
Views: 2635

Re: Schwab's market predictions next 10 years

The prediction will definitely be wrong - it’s a matter of to what degree and in which direction. As that’s unknown, it’s not actionable.
by columbia
Tue Jun 12, 2018 5:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why don't we index the Nasdaq too?
Replies: 16
Views: 1962

Re: Why don't we index the Nasdaq too?

Why would one do so?
by columbia
Mon Jun 11, 2018 2:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Yes, you can diversify a market portfolio
Replies: 190
Views: 9296

Re: Yes, you can diversify a market portfolio

My understanding is that time travel is likely only possible for moving forward in time. :)
by columbia
Sun Jun 10, 2018 6:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Yes, you can diversify a market portfolio
Replies: 190
Views: 9296

Re: The 60/40 Portfolio is not for everyone

Bogleheads: It is a serious mistake to believe that there is only one stock/bond allocation that is ideal for all of us. Each of us should base this very important decision on our goal(s), our time-frame, our risk-tolerance and our personal financial situation. We are all different. Vanguard offers...
by columbia
Sun Jun 10, 2018 5:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio Discussion (Cont'd)
Replies: 658
Views: 151483

Re: Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio Discussion (Cont'd)

It's pretty difficult to stick with an offbeat portfolio allocation over the long term, when it's not performing well and that's a real behavioral challenge. Over the 20-year period from 1981 - 2000, gold ground relentlessly lower and lost a cumulative 54% over that time with a max drawdown of 57%....
by columbia
Sun Jun 10, 2018 2:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard's own 401k plan eliminating S&P 500 Index option!
Replies: 86
Views: 7438

Re: Vanguard's own 401k plan eliminating S&P 500 Index option!

That narrowing gap since 2008 (between the grey and the green line) indicates that they have not been keeping up with inflation for the past 10 years. People need to stop using Treasury data starting with 2008. The '08 financial crisis and the subsequent some ten year period of Fed quantitative eas...
by columbia
Sun Jun 10, 2018 11:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard's own 401k plan eliminating S&P 500 Index option!
Replies: 86
Views: 7438

Re: Vanguard's own 401k plan eliminating S&P 500 Index option!

Prudence would generally require that retirement assets not be in cash because we know cash will be beaten by inflation. Generally T-bills are considered cash and 30 day t-bills will not be beaten by inflation. Can you please elaborate? I *think* I know what you mean, but want to make sure. Thanks ...
by columbia
Sun Jun 10, 2018 11:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard's own 401k plan eliminating S&P 500 Index option!
Replies: 86
Views: 7438

Re: Vanguard's own 401k plan eliminating S&P 500 Index option!

Prudence would generally require that retirement assets not be in cash because we know cash will be beaten by inflation. Generally T-bills are considered cash and 30 day t-bills will not be beaten by inflation. Can you please elaborate? I *think* I know what you mean, but want to make sure. Thanks
by columbia
Sun Jun 10, 2018 8:58 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: MD&P just purchased X / sold Y [md&pharmacist]
Replies: 177
Views: 10191

Re: MD&P just purchased X / sold Y [md&pharmacist]

Well, this is an interesting companion to another thread:

viewtopic.php?f=10&t=251285


:greedy
by columbia
Sat Jun 09, 2018 1:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jack Bogle on Fox Business Channel Friday June 8
Replies: 65
Views: 5351

Re: Jack Bogle on Fox Business Channel Friday June 8

Caught that, but not nearly as informative as his guest spots on Morningstar; that’s cable news for ya...they probably get better ratings with fast talking hedge fund managers.
by columbia
Sat Jun 09, 2018 9:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buffett says Bonds are a terrible investment now. What should we invest in besides stocks?
Replies: 141
Views: 20116

Re: Buffett says Bonds are a terrible investment now. What should we invest in besides stocks?

I'm not sure why either. I've been trying to understand for nearly a year on this forum. The minds on this forum are very bright, much smarter than me. I have learned a ton in a short time. But people on here will insist to invest in inferior assets by nearly every single metric except liquidity. T...
by columbia
Thu Jun 07, 2018 2:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International Investing - a convincing argument by Fidelity
Replies: 6
Views: 943

Re: International Investing - a convincing argument by Fidelity

It seems odd to advocate for (or anywhere near) global cap level investing, based on not being able to predict the future and contend that international stocks are eventually due for a real period of outperformance.
by columbia
Wed Jun 06, 2018 6:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Just added bonds to portfolio
Replies: 44
Views: 2912

Re: Just added bonds to portfolio

Wait until the stock market drops in half...stock up on Maalox. ;)
by columbia
Wed Jun 06, 2018 5:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: vanguard fund that is the safest fund that is most likely to just keep up with inflation
Replies: 18
Views: 2472

Re: vanguard fund that is the safest fund that is most likely to just keep up with inflation

To me, it raises the issue of why the VG stable value fund is only available in (certain) 401k/403b plans and not for individual investors: https://retirementplans.vanguard.com/pe/pdfs/F4197.pdf EDIT: above not guaranteed to keep up with inflation.... Stable value funds may have serious liquidity i...
by columbia
Tue Jun 05, 2018 6:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out) and your portfolio?
Replies: 23
Views: 2292

FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out) and your portfolio?

I saw FOMO referenced in another thread and - based on my own choices and the choices of others - believe that it’s a real phenomenon. I have somewhere between 20-30% of my equities abroad, but honestly would prefer *not* to; I think that one can generally classify such decisions as fear of missing ...
by columbia
Tue Jun 05, 2018 12:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: vanguard fund that is the safest fund that is most likely to just keep up with inflation
Replies: 18
Views: 2472

Re: vanguard fund that is the safest fund that is most likely to just keep up with inflation

To me, it raises the issue of why the VG stable value fund is only available in (certain) 401k/403b plans and not for individual investors:
https://retirementplans.vanguard.com/pe/pdfs/F4197.pdf

EDIT: above not guaranteed to keep up with inflation....
by columbia
Tue Jun 05, 2018 11:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Best case to convert a Bogle skeptic?
Replies: 56
Views: 4831

Re: Best case to convert a Bogle skeptic?

Yes, leave it be, but what I find amazing is your father (a former professional in the investing business) does not seem to realize the impact of high costs. :shock: -OR- He does know, but is loyal to his employer. :?: Paul Or he simply disagrees with the Boglehead critique of his former career. I ...
by columbia
Sat Jun 02, 2018 6:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: General Electric
Replies: 57
Views: 6638

Re: General Electric

GE is a perfect example of diversification: it’s the 38th largest holding in the SP500. It cold disappear and you probably wouldn’t notice a difference in your annual return.
by columbia
Thu May 31, 2018 10:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: General Electric
Replies: 57
Views: 6638

Re: General Electric

The whole thing sounds like a larger scale version of Westinghouse’s prolonged demise. Most here (including me) own it through an index fund, so I hope not.
by columbia
Thu May 31, 2018 7:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cliff Asness - The Hedgie in Winter
Replies: 40
Views: 3625

Re: Cliff Asness - The Hedgie in Winter

I don’t know - nor care - what the they *should* be compared to, but that article furthers my sense that hedge fund managers are unrepentant con artists. Philistinism is never a good attitude. David Swensen is considered a God in the Endowment industry and he shunned passive investments for the mos...
by columbia
Thu May 31, 2018 5:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cliff Asness - The Hedgie in Winter
Replies: 40
Views: 3625

Re: Cliff Asness - The Hedgie in Winter

I don’t know - nor care - what the they *should* be compared to, but that article furthers my sense that hedge fund managers are unrepentant con artists.
by columbia
Thu May 31, 2018 1:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: To be or not to be complex, that is the question
Replies: 146
Views: 11467

Re: To be or not to be complex, that is the question

Great post Rick, and you make some excellent points. If I had any concern, that would be that I hope that it's just coincidence that the simple (Broad US stock market) has so greatly outperformed in the past several years the following "alternatives": commodities, gold specifically, International s...
by columbia
Thu May 31, 2018 8:40 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Thoughts on Pimco total return (PTTRX) ??
Replies: 19
Views: 1563

Re: Thoughts on Pimco total return (PTTRX) ??

One wonders why Vanguard doesn’t offer an all bond fund managed by Wellington. If I were to own an actively managed fund, it would be that (mythical fund).
by columbia
Wed May 30, 2018 10:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: To be or not to be complex, that is the question
Replies: 146
Views: 11467

Re: To be or not to be complex, that is the question

dknightd wrote:
Wed May 30, 2018 10:52 am
columbia wrote:
Wed May 30, 2018 6:59 am

I have “reduced” my portfolio to 3 balanced funds + TIAA Traditional.
I'm curious which 3 funds you choose since I'm also with TIAA
This one in 403b:
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/qcscpx
by columbia
Wed May 30, 2018 6:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: To be or not to be complex, that is the question
Replies: 146
Views: 11467

Re: To be or not to be complex, that is the question

Absolutely

I have “reduced” my portfolio to 3 balanced funds + TIAA Traditional. I’ll get the returns that the market bears and fretting over a spreadsheet (and probably making a bad move, as a result) is a thing of the past.
by columbia
Tue May 29, 2018 5:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 6593
Views: 1429813

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

It’s funny how international drops even further on days like this; not sure funny is the correct word, of course.
by columbia
Tue May 29, 2018 3:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does VOO or VTI invest in Berkshire Hathaway?
Replies: 11
Views: 1108

Re: Does VOO or VTI invest in Berkshire Hathaway?

I guess we now know the reason Buffett recommends the SP500:

No one can afford the shares listed in TSM.

;)
by columbia
Tue May 29, 2018 6:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Help me better understand a non-dividend paying mutual fund
Replies: 7
Views: 919

Re: Help me better understand a non-dividend paying mutual fund

CREF Stock operates this way, as there are no dividends: the NAV of the fund goes up, as the dividends remain with the fund. Technically, I believe it’s an annuity and not a mutual fund. Someone smarter than me can better explain it, I’m sure.
by columbia
Tue May 29, 2018 5:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: German Bonds: a virtually riskless bet for an Italian investor, with no downside and a big upside possible?
Replies: 92
Views: 5349

Re: German Bonds: a virtually riskless bet for an Italian investor, with no downside and a big upside possible?

Allowing for the devaluation a few years ago, how are Swiss Francs viewed in the context of Eurozone turmoil? I might be 30 years behind in that thinking, of course. :)
by columbia
Mon May 28, 2018 7:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New to this - been looking at some Active Managed
Replies: 22
Views: 1234

Re: New to this - been looking at some Active Managed

Active managers are counting on folks agreeing with your last paragraph.
by columbia
Sun May 27, 2018 3:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Theory: Total World Index a Sure Fire Win [VT/VTWSX]
Replies: 155
Views: 12729

Re: Theory: Total World Index a Sure Fire Win [VT/VTWSX]

Age is a factor, correct?

It would seem odd to advise a 70 year old, US-only equities investor to switch to a global cap weight.
by columbia
Sat May 26, 2018 12:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The "4% withdrawal rate"- would it apply to someone "retiring" in their 70s?
Replies: 54
Views: 4476

Re: The "4% withdrawl rate" - would it apply to someone "retiring" in their 70s?

dbr wrote:
Sat May 26, 2018 12:02 pm
columbia wrote:
Sat May 26, 2018 11:59 am
Where does one get an 8% annuity?
That would be close for current quotes on a fixed SPIA.
Yes, I now see that:
https://annuities.blueprintincome.com/l ... ent-rates/

Thanks
by columbia
Fri May 25, 2018 6:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Theory: Total World Index a Sure Fire Win [VT/VTWSX]
Replies: 155
Views: 12729

Re: Theory: Total World Index a Sure Fire Win [VT/VTWSX]

Comparison of: Total world iShares global 100 50/50 mix of SP500 and developed markets https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&timePeriod=4&startYear=1985&firstMonth=1&endYear=2018&lastMonth=12&endDate=05%2F24%2F2018&initialAmount=10000&annualOperation=0&annualAdjustment=0&inflati...
by columbia
Sun May 20, 2018 6:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: China and EM [Emerging Market]
Replies: 30
Views: 3316

Re: China and EM

It seems inevitable that FTSE will eventually transition China to a developed market status. That would certainly have an interesting effect on an emerging markets fund like VWO. It seems ripe for a bloodbath, if you’re asleep at the switch and don’t sell off ahead of time. Why specifically would t...
by columbia
Sun May 20, 2018 3:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: China and EM [Emerging Market]
Replies: 30
Views: 3316

Re: China and EM

It seems inevitable that FTSE will eventually transition China to a developed market status.

That would certainly have an interesting effect on an emerging markets fund like VWO. It seems ripe for a bloodbath, if you’re asleep at the switch and don’t sell off ahead of time.
by columbia
Sat May 19, 2018 7:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: No Need For Corp Bonds?
Replies: 38
Views: 3923

Re: Larry Swedroe: No Need For Corp Bonds?

Can someone point me to a time when owning a broad based corporate bond fund led to losing a tangible percentage of money and that this was *specifically* due to companies defaulting on the bond payments? Isn't that a really hard thing to do, simply because of how the funds are set up? Aren't many ...