Search found 1273 matches

by columbia
Sat Feb 16, 2019 8:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Split the Equity allocation 50% US / 50% International
Replies: 55
Views: 7538

Re: Split the Equity allocation 50% US / 50% International

Do people go to a dollar store and think that they’re purchasing quality products?
by columbia
Sat Feb 16, 2019 8:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Did you get spooked by the December 2018 fall and gave up on passive?
Replies: 133
Views: 7007

Re: Did you get spooked by the December 2018 fall and gave up on passive?

No.

I cashed out on equities on 10/8/18.

God help you if you’re ignoring 3/29/19 and US/China debacle.
by columbia
Fri Feb 15, 2019 2:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The WORST Morningstar Style Category In 2018
Replies: 34
Views: 2693

Re: The WORST Morningstar Style Category In 2018

One thing I’ve always wondered about small cap stocks:

What percentage of them could disappear and you’d never notice that fact for the rest of your life (aside from whatever equity holdings you might have in them)?
by columbia
Fri Feb 15, 2019 6:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wellesley’s Secret Sauce to Remain Secret
Replies: 22
Views: 3425

Re: Wellesley’s Secret Sauce to Remain Secret

If one thinks they can beat Wellesley with a similar blend of large cap value and investment grade/corporate, then they should probably pursue that route.
by columbia
Thu Feb 14, 2019 9:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New and Improved CAPE is Higher!
Replies: 18
Views: 1644

Re: New and Improved CAPE is Higher!

Was this the “needed” change pointed out by folks, who said that current CAPE was not comparable to measurements from the past?
by columbia
Wed Feb 13, 2019 8:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Globally diversified retirement drawdown portfolio over the last 30 years
Replies: 11
Views: 966

Re: Globally diversified retirement drawdown portfolio over the last 30 years

Parag Khanna has a pretty smart new book “The Future is Asian: Commerce, Conflict and Culture in the 21st Century”. I agree with his sense of future global economic development. I’m also extremely skeptical that those opportunities will be there - in any way that will make a difference - for an inve...
by columbia
Wed Feb 13, 2019 7:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Globally diversified retirement drawdown portfolio over the last 30 years
Replies: 11
Views: 966

Re: Globally diversified retirement drawdown portfolio over the last 30 years

Code: Select all

Begin_______End______CAGR_____SD_______Best Yr___Worst Yr____Max DD____Sharpe
Portfolio 1.....$10,000....$46,639... 5.44%..... 7.31%.......28.11%.....-11.86%.......-21.63%..... 0.74
Portfolio 2.....$10,000....$25,596....3.28%......7.42%.......20.16%.....-13.62%.......-24.20%......0.57
by columbia
Tue Feb 12, 2019 9:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why should stocks beat bonds in the long run?
Replies: 47
Views: 2743

Re: Why should stocks beat bonds in the long run?

They probably will, but let’s not pretend that isn’t pretending to be able to foresee the future (ie a BH heresy).

There’s a non-zero chance that they won’t.
by columbia
Mon Feb 11, 2019 11:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What index stocks are on undervalued now? What site do people use to determine this?
Replies: 27
Views: 2354

Re: What index stocks are on undervalued now? What site do people use to determine this?

Thinking that certain market segments are “on sale” would seem to imply having some knowledge that the market as a whole does not possess.
by columbia
Mon Feb 11, 2019 9:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Risk Parity Fund at Wealthfront
Replies: 15
Views: 1126

Re: Risk Parity Fund at Wealthfront

If I think of an “all weather” portfolio, minimizing losses is darn well near the top of the associated criteria. Let’s look at the Wellesley Income fund going back to 1985: https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&timePeriod=4&startYear=1985&firstMonth=1&endYear=2019&lastMonth=12&...
by columbia
Sun Feb 10, 2019 10:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why choose intermediate term treasury at this time?
Replies: 57
Views: 5219

Re: Why choose intermediate term treasury at this time?

Are you planning on retiring in the next 5 years?

Which do you think will perform better in the next 5 years, were a market crash to happen: ST or IT treasuries?
by columbia
Tue Feb 05, 2019 9:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]
Replies: 555
Views: 27595

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [3x leveraged ETF strategy]

Skepticism seems to be rooted in opinions on why it shouldn’t work; for fun, I’d like to see metrics of why it won’t work.

I’m don’t have the stomach for this approach, but would probably go with a vanilla version of 20% UPRO and 80% intermediate treasuries.
by columbia
Mon Feb 04, 2019 6:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: No Pain, No Premium
Replies: 12
Views: 1565

Re: No Pain, No Premium

Author here. Thanks for reading! columbia: Complicated question. I'll defer to the work of Nickolai Roussanov, who I think is on the forefront of published research in this area. He did a great interview with Jeremy Schwartz on Behind the Markets a few years ago). Even if you don't listen to the po...
by columbia
Mon Feb 04, 2019 3:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: No Pain, No Premium
Replies: 12
Views: 1565

Re: No Pain, No Premium

Therefore, we should seek to eliminate uncompensated risks while diversifying across compensated ones.
Does the author believe that currency risk is in fact compensated?
by columbia
Sun Feb 03, 2019 2:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: MSCI was forced to add China into its emerging market index...
Replies: 23
Views: 1886

Re: MSCI was forced to add China into its emerging market index...

samsdad wrote:
Sun Feb 03, 2019 2:21 pm
I can’t believe that the Communist Party of China was being heavy-handed.
:P
by columbia
Sun Feb 03, 2019 1:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is momentum an actionable factor?
Replies: 3
Views: 334

Re: Is momentum an actionable factor?

Since inception, MTUM has stomped the SP500 - and you can’t explain it away by pointing to tech stocks.
by columbia
Sat Feb 02, 2019 9:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Little Pension That Dumped Dalio
Replies: 14
Views: 2657

Re: The Little Pension That Dumped Dalio

At what point should folks of this ilk be considered con artists?
by columbia
Wed Jan 23, 2019 7:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Warren Buffett] Why Long-term stocks vs Index funds ?
Replies: 54
Views: 4031

Re: [Warren Buffett] Why Long-term stocks vs Index funds ?

Because the crowd is a lot better at guessing the weight of a cow, than any given individual.
https://www.npr.org/sections/money/2015 ... -cow-weigh
by columbia
Mon Jan 21, 2019 10:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: xkcd Webcomic Weighs in on Technical Analysis
Replies: 15
Views: 1454

Re: xkcd Webcomic Weighs in on Technical Analysis

The loudmouths on CNBC love to speak with great certitude about “the technicals.”

Have they ever been right?
by columbia
Sun Jan 20, 2019 9:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Value "Premium" has been ZERO for 30 years
Replies: 198
Views: 15353

Re: The Value "Premium" has been ZERO for 30 years

On the bright side, it’s (almost obscenely) outperformed ex-US. ;)
by columbia
Sun Jan 20, 2019 12:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International Allocation and Siamond's "Investing in the World" Series
Replies: 42
Views: 2826

Re: International Allocation and Siamond's "Investing in the World" Series

hmm I don't think you would need it to be from an actual currency based fund. If you had the returns of a global fund, couldn't you just adjust it to the change in the currency of the country relative to .. hmm yea you would have to know the currency that country relative to the "worlds" currency (...
by columbia
Sun Jan 20, 2019 8:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International Allocation and Siamond's "Investing in the World" Series
Replies: 42
Views: 2826

Re: International Allocation and Siamond's "Investing in the World" Series

That article is fantastic. Was actually referring back to it again today. One thing that I really wish was covered in the article was a home-currency-hedged global equities allocation. Say 25% local stocks 37.5% all-world 37.5% all-world home-currency-hedged Or 1/3 each if it makes it simpler. So t...
by columbia
Sat Jan 19, 2019 5:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why don't Standard and Poor come up with their own index funds?
Replies: 4
Views: 437

Re: Why don't Standard and Poor come up with their own index funds?

Based on my personal (work) experience of dealing with one of S&P’s subsidiary information products (think borderline incompetent service), I definitely wouldn’t entrust the parent company to manage my money. 😀
by columbia
Thu Jan 17, 2019 10:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle "5% Gold"
Replies: 78
Views: 7885

Re: Bogle "5% Gold"

It’s an insurance policy, which shouldnt be expected to keep up with inflation during your lifetime.

My sense is that some presume the second part isn’t true. Shrug.
by columbia
Thu Jan 17, 2019 7:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does Microcap add diversification to Total Stock Market Index fund?
Replies: 20
Views: 1667

Re: Does Microcap add diversification to Total Stock Market Index fund?

The real question would seem to be:

Would adding micro caps lead to a more positive outcome?

Looking at the essentially non-existent difference between owing a S&P 500 fund and owning a total stock market fund, I think we know the answer.
by columbia
Wed Jan 16, 2019 6:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: John Bogle has died at age 89
Replies: 856
Views: 49231

Re: John Bogle is dead at 89

My father started investing with Vanguard in 1975 and was able to send 3 of us to college, by getting a “fair shake” from the markets.

RIP
by columbia
Wed Jan 16, 2019 10:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Further diversifying the 60/40 portfoilio?
Replies: 29
Views: 3614

Re: Further diversifying the 60/40 portfoilio?

Hi Everyone, Thanks to this group I have had the luck to learn the science and art of passive investing and have been using the 60/40 portfolio for a while (Vanguard Total Stock + Total Bond Index Funds). However, two things (**) prompted me to think about further diversifying the current asset all...
by columbia
Wed Jan 16, 2019 7:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Real value of NYC real estate, 1899-1999.
Replies: 50
Views: 4403

Re: Real value of NYC real estate, 1899-1999.

One advantage to renting us that it’s a lot easier to move to a cheaper domicile than to sell your house, if more month to month cash is needed.

Owning a house isn’t as poor as an investment than buying a new car, but I don’t consider it to be a slam dunk good one.
by columbia
Wed Jan 16, 2019 7:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When would you stop being a Boglehead?
Replies: 95
Views: 7537

Re: When would you stop being a Boglehead?

One can just by a balanced/target date fund and achieve the hypothetical goal expressed in the original post.
by columbia
Tue Jan 15, 2019 10:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "College Endowments Badly Trail The Market"
Replies: 28
Views: 3038

Re: "College Endowments Badly Trail The Market"

Like with state pension plan managers, they can’t make big bucks (and also ensure friends in the the financial services industry get a hefty cut), if they simply put it all in VBIAX. Columbia may be on to something. Take a look at the paper . They regress the returns against distance to major finan...
by columbia
Tue Jan 15, 2019 10:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Further diversifying the 60/40 portfoilio?
Replies: 29
Views: 3614

Re: Further diversifying the 60/40 portfoilio?

Hi Everyone, Thanks to this group I have had the luck to learn the science and art of passive investing and have been using the 60/40 portfolio for a while (Vanguard Total Stock + Total Bond Index Funds). However, two things (**) prompted me to think about further diversifying the current asset all...
by columbia
Tue Jan 15, 2019 9:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "College Endowments Badly Trail The Market"
Replies: 28
Views: 3038

Re: "College Endowments Badly Trail The Market"

Like with state pension plan managers, they can’t make big bucks (and also ensure friends in the the financial services industry get a hefty cut), if they simply put it all in VBIAX.
by columbia
Tue Jan 15, 2019 6:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Opinion: Half of investment-grade bonds are only one step away from junk status
Replies: 23
Views: 2452

Re: Opinion: Half of investment-grade bonds are only one step away from junk status

Logically, it seems that the “problem” (and I think that’s too strong of a word) with corporate bond funds isn’t defaults, but rather that people panic sell them when equities crash.

The end might result (lower price) is the same, but those are very different reasons.
by columbia
Mon Jan 14, 2019 3:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: GMO's 7‐Year Asset Class Real Return Forecasts
Replies: 29
Views: 2048

Re: GMO's 7‐Year Asset Class Real Return Forecasts

Even if these are accurate, expected returns will be higher once the markets crash. ;)
by columbia
Mon Jan 14, 2019 12:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why No Mid-Cap TIAA Index Fund?
Replies: 6
Views: 432

Re: Why No Mid-Cap TIAA Index Fund?

Any rationale for TIAA to not offer index fund(s) that more directly complement or cover market capitalization? Index funds are not their main business. The TIAA General Account, which backs the Traditional annuity, has $300 billion in assets. The CREF Stock account has $127 billion in NAV. The TIA...
by columbia
Sun Jan 13, 2019 7:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emerging markets cannot be fairly valued and investors are better off elsewhere: Change my mind :)
Replies: 128
Views: 7616

Re: Emerging markets cannot be fairly valued and investors are better off elsewhere: Change my mind :)

Here's what I honestly believe. (I assume that you are talking about the choice of holding emerging markets at cap weight, or excluding them; not overweighting them or shorting them or anything bold like that). 1) I don't believe it can make much difference, for reasons I explained above. If emergi...
by columbia
Sat Jan 12, 2019 3:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Vanguard to stop accepting purchases in Leveraged or Inverse mutual funds]
Replies: 145
Views: 8693

Re: [Vanguard to stop accepting purchases in Leveraged or Inverse mutual funds]

If my local bakery started to use margarine instead of butter, I’d go to a different bakery.

VG is clearly not worried about customers exercising their right to go elsewhere, as a result of this move.
by columbia
Sat Jan 12, 2019 3:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Who has the highest allocation to international stocks?
Replies: 65
Views: 5926

Re: Who has the highest allocation to international stocks?

One potential reason for VG to use a 60/40 in target date and life strategy funds (instead of VT) is a fairly cynical one (on my part):

That would cut into the AUM of the TSM classes and that might not be good PR.
by columbia
Fri Jan 11, 2019 9:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Low-volatility ETFs have beaten S&P indexes while cutting risk
Replies: 12
Views: 1277

Re: Low-volatility ETFs have beaten S&P indexes while cutting risk

gtwhitegold wrote:
Fri Jan 11, 2019 6:20 pm
columbia wrote:
Fri Jan 11, 2019 6:11 pm
USMV holds almost 24% LT treasuries.

I do not consider this ETF to be “similar” to the S&P 500.
Where do you see that? Top 10 holdings for USMV are all equities on Morningstar.com.

Per Portfolio Visualizer.
Given your response, I presume that their metric data is quite incorrect; odd.
by columbia
Fri Jan 11, 2019 6:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Low-volatility ETFs have beaten S&P indexes while cutting risk
Replies: 12
Views: 1277

Re: Low-volatility ETFs have beaten S&P indexes while cutting risk

USMV holds almost 24% LT treasuries.

I do not consider this ETF to be “similar” to the S&P 500.
by columbia
Thu Jan 10, 2019 9:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard explains the increase in ex-us allocation
Replies: 34
Views: 4668

Re: Vanguard explains the increase in ex-us allocation

I’d like to know THEIR personal allocation to international.
by columbia
Thu Jan 10, 2019 7:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Vanguard to stop accepting purchases in Leveraged or Inverse mutual funds]
Replies: 145
Views: 8693

Re: [Vanguard to stop accepting purchases in Leveraged or Inverse mutual funds]

I have not, do not and will never own a leveraged ETF/N: One has been able to achieve almost identical returns with 10% 3x SP500, 10% 3x 20 year treasuries, 80% bonds as a standard 50/50 portfolio. The stock market can (and has) drop by 90%. One of those portfolios would see a 10% decline of overall...
by columbia
Thu Jan 10, 2019 5:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is your allocation to U.S. and International?
Replies: 220
Views: 14752

Re: What is your allocation to U.S. and International?

Do you also diversify globally in the bond realm (if you invest in bonds)? I hold zero foreign bonds. No one assumed the OP meant foreign bonds. Vanguard holds them in target retirement funds. The OP clearly states "U.S. and International stocks and bonds." The justification for adding foreign bond...
by columbia
Thu Jan 10, 2019 2:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Experts Forecast Long-Term Stock and Bond Returns: 2019 Edition
Replies: 10
Views: 1015

Re: Experts Forecast Long-Term Stock and Bond Returns: 2019 Edition

Very little in those forecasts to indicate that 100% of my TIAA account cranking at 4.25% is a bad idea.

After If the markets take a terrible tumble, then we’re talking something different.
by columbia
Thu Jan 10, 2019 9:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AQR Cuts Staff After a Bad Year (39 out of 41 funds down)
Replies: 31
Views: 2695

Re: AQR Cuts Staff After a Bad Year

Performance aside, I wonder how many AQR investors really understood the nature of the investments. Isn't this about what one would expect from this fund over longer time periods? QSPIX in BLUE http://i63.tinypic.com/124hd3k.jpg QSPIX owners would have been better off with Wellesley: https://www.po...