Search found 892 matches

by columbia
Mon Oct 15, 2018 7:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What Jack Bogle Expects From the Market
Replies: 9
Views: 1621

Re: What Jack Bogle Expects From the Market

I have no idea what his long term (prediction) track record is, but I imagine that paying attention to Mr. Bogle’s assessment of fundamentals is a good idea.
by columbia
Mon Oct 15, 2018 12:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What Jack Bogle Expects From the Market
Replies: 9
Views: 1621

Re: What Jack Bogle Expects From the Market

Random Walker wrote:
Mon Oct 15, 2018 12:36 pm
With stocks 4-5% and treasuries 3%, seems like a whole lot of extra risk without much extra expected return for equity heavy portfolios.

Dave
Some historical info. on the premium:
https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answer ... remium.asp
by columbia
Mon Oct 15, 2018 6:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What events hurt US equity returns in the past 100 years?
Replies: 12
Views: 1034

Re: What events hurt US equity returns in the past 100 years?

If I were a betting man, I’d say watch the oil market - could get ugly.
by columbia
Sun Oct 14, 2018 3:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Barron's Making the Case for Gold
Replies: 111
Views: 7656

Re: Barron's Making the Case for Gold

FOX Business channel is currently airing a “Buy gold, at cost!” infomercial.

The stoking of fear is one of the reasons why I (and many others) am so suspicious of the general idea. To each their own, however - I don’t care how others decide spend their money.
by columbia
Sun Oct 14, 2018 7:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 1154
Views: 95109

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

I do find it curious that Vanguard doesn’t offer a currency hedged version of VT. (The ETF would own VT + hedging mechanics.)

Then again, iShares used to offer that exact type of product and it no longer exists....
by columbia
Sat Oct 13, 2018 9:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Who worries about a bear market in stocks?
Replies: 71
Views: 5528

Re: Who worries about a bear market in stocks?

Don't feed the troll. +2 Only 49% of Americans invest. Most live paycheck to paycheck. I don't think many Americans think about it much if not at all. Most are just concerned about paying the next set of bills and saving up for Black Friday. If they do notice a crash it's either posted on their soc...
by columbia
Fri Oct 12, 2018 5:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does international really buy you diversification?
Replies: 43
Views: 4350

Re: Does international really buy you diversification?

As correlations grow higher (compared to say 20 years ago), it seems obvious that the diversification benefit would lessen. If you want high octane equity diversification for the next 30 years, I’d turn your gaze to EM funds.
by columbia
Fri Oct 12, 2018 8:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market decline in 2019 ?
Replies: 73
Views: 6410

Re: Market decline in 2019 ?

There is simply no way to know when a better time than today is to buy. https://fm.cnbc.com/applications/cnbc.com/resources/img/editorial/2018/10/10/105499667-4ED4-FM-A-BLOCK-2-101018.600x337.jpg?v=1539207457 https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/10/fundstrats-tom-lee-sees-a-rally-so-buy-value-stocks-on-the...
by columbia
Thu Oct 11, 2018 7:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When will you backup the truck on stocks
Replies: 93
Views: 7886

Re: When will you backup the truck on stocks

PE Ratio is still unpleasantly high, in relation to historical average:
http://www.multpl.com/

Nothing in the last week should be a sign to load up on US equities.

100% of my bi-weekly 403b purchases is still going to TIAA Traditional at 4.25%.
by columbia
Thu Oct 11, 2018 12:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Diversifying with a zero-correlation, zero-return volatile asset
Replies: 66
Views: 3489

Re: Diversifying with a zero-correlation, zero-return volatile asset

I wondering if this thread is really about currency risk. :)
by columbia
Thu Oct 11, 2018 10:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: This Time is Different
Replies: 30
Views: 5344

Re: This Time is Different

There’s a fairly easy way to avoid credit risk from corporate and ex-US bonds: don’t own any.
by columbia
Thu Oct 11, 2018 6:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market decline in 2019 ?
Replies: 73
Views: 6410

Re: Market decline in 2019 ?

Maybe.... :annoyed
by columbia
Wed Oct 10, 2018 8:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Do not invest with Vanguard if you are a market-timer." - Vanguard
Replies: 12
Views: 2554

Re: "Do not invest with Vanguard if you are a market-timer." - Vanguard

I’d say Vanguard does, in fact, have a high tolerance for market timing....


Vanguard Group begins an investing experiment that pushes free ETF trading to its limit
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cnbc.c ... sting.html
by columbia
Wed Oct 10, 2018 7:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The benefits of international diversification - NOT: Hulbert
Replies: 80
Views: 5140

Re: The benefits of international diversification - NOT: Hulbert

I wonder what the correlation is between not liking SPIAs and embracing international at global cap weight, in that they are both - theoretically- insurance policies.
by columbia
Wed Oct 10, 2018 5:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The benefits of international diversification - NOT: Hulbert
Replies: 80
Views: 5140

Re: Mr. Bogle on "International Investing"

Jack Bogle makes some compelling arguments for NOT investing in ex-US, as a US investor: Here's Why Jack Bogle Doesn't Like Investing In Foreign Markets Vanguard Founder Jack Bogle on Mutual Funds, Common Sense Investing and the Stock Market Jack Bogle on Market Index Funds (2014) Bogle: Why I Don'...
by columbia
Wed Oct 10, 2018 5:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 7355
Views: 1544329

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

I’ll be concerned if/when there’s another banking meltdown.
by columbia
Wed Oct 10, 2018 2:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Allan Roth doesn't like single premium annuities
Replies: 185
Views: 9162

Re: Allan Roth doesn't like single premium annuities

How many times do I have to say this? It isn't surprising that pensions pay out better than SPIAs because consumers buy SPIAs one at a time where a pension is the equivalent of Costco, a pension can buy in bulk. This is why when faced with a choice between a pension and a lump sum, I most often adv...
by columbia
Wed Oct 10, 2018 6:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Allan Roth doesn't like single premium annuities
Replies: 185
Views: 9162

Re: Allan Roth doesn't like single premium annuities

Fear of someone else - an insurance company - winning seems to be a broad driver of objecting to SPIAs.
by columbia
Tue Oct 09, 2018 9:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Diversifying with a zero-correlation, zero-return volatile asset
Replies: 66
Views: 3489

Re: Diversifying with a zero-correlation, zero-return volatile asset

Buying a mix of 50% stocks/50% short term treasuries for 50 years is a perfectly rational and reasonable tactic.

You could do a lot worse, probably including engaging in the above (thought) exercise.
by columbia
Tue Oct 09, 2018 6:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Allan Roth doesn't like single premium annuities
Replies: 185
Views: 9162

Re: Allan Roth doesn't like single premium annuities

... Keeping the money in other fixed income gets the advantage if you expect to pass younger and want to leave a larger estate. This is likely the least of my concerns. If my offspring desired an 8-figure inheritance rather than merely a 7-figure inheritance, they should have chosen different paren...
by columbia
Tue Oct 09, 2018 6:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Allan Roth doesn't like single premium annuities
Replies: 185
Views: 9162

Re: Allan Roth doesn't like single premium annuities

... Keeping the money in other fixed income gets the advantage if you expect to pass younger and want to leave a larger estate. This is likely the least of my concerns. If my offspring desired an 8-figure inheritance rather than merely a 7-figure inheritance, they should have chosen different paren...
by columbia
Tue Oct 09, 2018 3:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Roadmap For The Upcoming US Treasury Bull Market
Replies: 40
Views: 3730

Re: A Roadmap For The Upcoming US Treasury Bull Market

Short term treasuries have lost money only twice in the last 40 years:

1994: -0.48%
2013: -0.10%

That’s a pretty powerful point of diversification against the US stock market.
by columbia
Tue Oct 09, 2018 1:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Roadmap For The Upcoming US Treasury Bull Market
Replies: 40
Views: 3730

Re: A Roadmap For The Upcoming US Treasury Bull Market

Wouldn’t it make more sense to just hide out in a short term treasury fund and then pounce when the market crashes.

This assumes that the crash prediction is correct, of course.
by columbia
Mon Oct 08, 2018 4:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Debunking Bonds in Taxable
Replies: 35
Views: 2726

Re: Debunking Bonds in Taxable

Imagine if you have stocks and bonds in al of your accounts. Also imagine that you $50K in treasury fund in your taxable account (along with equities in that account), after a 10 year year bull market. Also imagine that you now need $50k for an expense. Would you rather sell that treasury fund or VT...
by columbia
Mon Oct 08, 2018 1:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is it a sign that a bear market is coming, when most people are afraid that stocks will plummet?
Replies: 42
Views: 2760

Re: Is it a sign that a bear market is coming, when most people are afraid that stocks will plummet?

Then there are the late 1990's dot.com period, when people talked about a new way of valuing companies. That's a pretty good clue that fundamentals and sentiment may be far apart. I think a good argument can be made that valuations no longer bore a strong relationship A variation on that is “CAPE n...
by columbia
Sun Oct 07, 2018 5:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 1154
Views: 95109

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

You're not getting it: Yes, the US does amazingly well in attracting talent. Mercedes Benz can come to the USA, set up R&D offices in the USA (like BMW does), hire American software developers to build the technology, heck even have them manufactured in the USA (like BMW does with its SUVs), but th...
by columbia
Sat Oct 06, 2018 6:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 1154
Views: 95109

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

It would be interesting to know what percentage of the global equity cap partisans also apply that approach to their bond holdings.

If not, what do they know that the global bond market doesn’t know?
by columbia
Sat Oct 06, 2018 12:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: October Bogleheads On Investing Podcast with Dr. David Blitzer
Replies: 22
Views: 2421

Re: October Bogleheads On Investing Podcast with Dr. David Blitzer

The conversation about varying levels of indexing across different countries was interesting. I do wonder how that - if at all - affects the ability of active managers to “profit” (ie beat the market) from said conditions.
by columbia
Sat Oct 06, 2018 11:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Allan Roth doesn't like single premium annuities
Replies: 185
Views: 9162

Re: Alan Roth doesn't like single premium annuities

It does not take much to show that annuities are a financial scam on consumers -- totally legal just like payday lenders in most states. Scam #1: They are advertised featuring "payout rates" which most consumers compare to CD rates because most people do not know better even after they read the fin...
by columbia
Sat Oct 06, 2018 10:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Allan Roth doesn't like single premium annuities
Replies: 185
Views: 9162

Re: Alan Roth doesn't like single premium annuities

I think a ladder of SPIAs will be a helpful addition to our retirement. I completely understand the inflation downside and that early on it is a return of principal. Having a large portfolio is helpful, but having multiple income streams will allow us to take out less from our portfolio. Also incom...
by columbia
Sat Oct 06, 2018 9:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: October Bogleheads On Investing Podcast with Dr. David Blitzer
Replies: 22
Views: 2421

Re: October Bogleheads On Investing Podcast with Dr. David Blitzer

Future guests who have agreed to be interviewed. Presented in no particular order: Tim Buckley (CEO Vanguard) Jonathan Clements (Humble Dollar) Christine Benz (Morningstar) Allan Roth (Wealth Logic) Bill Bernstein (Efficient Frontier) Gus Sauter (Vanguard - Retired) Wes Gray (Alpha Architect) Mel L...
by columbia
Fri Oct 05, 2018 8:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Yale's 'Warren Buffett' places big bets on cryptocurrency funds
Replies: 36
Views: 2554

Re: Yale's 'Warren Buffett' places big bets on cryptocurrency funds

Bitcoin is indeed the opposite of paper money:

For the former, the real value is the underlying technology; for the latter, it’s the value assigned to a particular piece of paper.
by columbia
Fri Oct 05, 2018 5:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Allan Roth doesn't like single premium annuities
Replies: 185
Views: 9162

Re: Alan Roth doesn't like single premium annuities

I think there’s a strong case, if one is genuinely vulnerable to running out of money. I’m most certainly going to annuitize my TIAA Traditional hondings and will take it from there.
by columbia
Fri Oct 05, 2018 12:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bloomberg - Cliff Asness Interview
Replies: 22
Views: 1963

Re: Bloomberg - Cliff Asness Interview

My eyeballing says that Growth is winning out over Value in the International arena as well. You goaded me into checking: EAFE value index (tracked by the iShares EFV ETF) 1 year -.36% 3 years 8.12 5 years 3.14 10 years 4.49 since 2005: 3.88 EAFE growth index (tracked by the iShares EFG ETF) 1 year...
by columbia
Fri Oct 05, 2018 12:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bloomberg - Cliff Asness Interview
Replies: 22
Views: 1963

Re: Bloomberg - Cliff Asness Interview

My eyeballing says that Growth is winning out over Value in the International arena as well. You goaded me into checking: EAFE value index (tracked by the iShares EFV ETF) 1 year -.36% 3 years 8.12 5 years 3.14 10 years 4.49 since 2005: 3.88 EAFE growth index (tracked by the iShares EFG ETF) 1 year...
by columbia
Thu Oct 04, 2018 4:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Barron's Making the Case for Gold
Replies: 111
Views: 7656

Re: Barron's Making the Case for Gold

As has been pointed out in this forum before: gold is a workable inflation hedge, provided that you are able live several hundred years; too much variance for shorter time periods.
by columbia
Thu Oct 04, 2018 2:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 1154
Views: 95109

Re: Our International Allocation?

There is quite a bit of evidence in predictions that the average of the predictions by various experts outperforms, on average, the guess of any one. So that is not clear. That's how I understand the ideas that market prices are about right (as in EMH), because they incorporate the views and decisi...
by columbia
Thu Oct 04, 2018 1:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Key differences between investing philosophies: Swedroe vs. Bogle
Replies: 144
Views: 7563

Re: Key differences between investing philosophies: Swedroe vs. Bogle

“The Death of Expertise” (Tom Nichols) is an interesting read.

I can guarantee you that said author would value the expertise of Misters Bogle, Swedroe, Ferri and Larrimore.
by columbia
Thu Oct 04, 2018 4:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Be Prepared For Losses
Replies: 100
Views: 12001

Re: Larry Swedroe: Be Prepared For Losses

...I ALSO believe one should ALWAYS assume the market could drop 50% starting tomorrow and stay down for 5 years. Because it could. This dren (the reality, not your assessment) is why I freaking hate our entire economic system of having become so dependent on the effective gambling our futures on t...
by columbia
Tue Oct 02, 2018 7:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Barron's Making the Case for Gold
Replies: 111
Views: 7656

Re: Barron's Making the Case for Gold

gold has risen over very long periods of time at the rate of inflation. An ounce of gold bought a fine tailored toga 2000 years ago and today it will buy you the equivalent fine tailored men's suit. When looking at the long term return of gold you also need to include the holding costs. For example...
by columbia
Tue Oct 02, 2018 5:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Barron's Making the Case for Gold
Replies: 111
Views: 7656

Re: Barron's Making the Case for Gold

Just my opinion, but long term treasuries seem like a better safety valve: https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-asset-class-allocation?s=y&mode=2&startYear=1972&endYear=2018&initialAmount=10000&annualOperation=0&annualAdjustment=0&inflationAdjusted=true&annualPercentage=0.0&frequency=4&rebal...
by columbia
Tue Oct 02, 2018 5:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is an emergency fund just about market timing?
Replies: 103
Views: 5503

Re: Is an emergency fund just about market timing?

I consider my Roth my emergency fund, though I do have plenty of cash in a savings account as well. The Roth is 100% invested in equities and large enough that during a huge correction it will still contain enough cash for regular (tax-free) withdrawals if I needed. +1 Although I took a minor tax h...
by columbia
Tue Oct 02, 2018 6:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Barron's Making the Case for Gold
Replies: 111
Views: 7656

Re: Barron's Making the Case for Gold

Bonds pay interest and gold doesn’t.
by columbia
Mon Oct 01, 2018 7:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Best Vanguard ETF Diversifiers, Ranked
Replies: 46
Views: 4577

Re: Best Vanguard ETF Diversifiers, Ranked

What’s the tangible distinction between VIOV and VBR?
by columbia
Mon Oct 01, 2018 6:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Best Vanguard ETF Diversifiers, Ranked
Replies: 46
Views: 4577

Re: Best Vanguard ETF Diversifiers, Ranked

Vineviz, you missed EDV, which is basically a supercharged BLV. In retrospect it seems weird that isn’t in my list. Even VGLT should have been superior to BLV. I’ll take a look again tomorrow. Short term funds in general and corporate bonds in particular are not usually among the best diversificati...
by columbia
Sun Sep 30, 2018 9:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why does Vanguard reccomend 60:40 US:International ratio?
Replies: 52
Views: 7577

Re: Why does Vanguard reccomend 60:40 US:International ratio?

As I recall, they point to 30% being the “optimal” allocation...yet exceed it. I’ve not seen a rational explanation for the increase in the Life Strategy and Target Date funds, given that.
by columbia
Sun Sep 30, 2018 8:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: CAPE-Based Robert Shiller Bought Italy and Spain Indexes in 2015
Replies: 62
Views: 2530

Re: CAPE-Based Robert Shiller Bought Italy and Spain Indexes in 2015

I don't make investment decisions based on valuations. Too much noise to be useful. To be fair to Shiller, he emphasizes the studies that show valuations to have some preditictive power over the long term. A few years is not long enough to evaluate the accuracy of his country picks. Among other que...
by columbia
Sun Sep 30, 2018 7:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: CAPE-Based Robert Shiller Bought Italy and Spain Indexes in 2015
Replies: 62
Views: 2530

Re: CAPE-Based Robert Shiller Bought Italy and Spain Indexes in 2015

This approach would dictate loading up on Russian equities. Good luck with that, should one pursue it. As a matter of fact, in an appearance on CNBC in September 2017 Shiller did advocate buying Russian equities, and made the case for avoiding U.S. equities. His argument for buying Russian equities...