Search found 2993 matches

by columbia
Thu Dec 17, 2020 5:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Was Bogle secretly a believer in value stocks?
Replies: 83
Views: 7930

Re: Was Bogle secretly a believer in value stocks?

Vanguard had such a strong conviction in their nouveau factor funds, that they don't even bother to list them on their page of ETF offerings:

https://investor.vanguard.com/etf/list# ... nd-returns
by columbia
Wed Dec 16, 2020 8:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: CAPE as a withdrawal strategy
Replies: 104
Views: 2387

Re: CAPE: A much stronger predictor of stock returns than many think

Interesting thread, which seems to be devolving to the true nature of the root issue: philosophical differences on the value of projecting future returns, as it relates to personal savings rate.

My opinion is save what you can and that seers are generally fooling themselves.
by columbia
Wed Dec 16, 2020 6:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Excess CAPE Yield; new Shiller metric
Replies: 35
Views: 4801

Re: Excess CAPE Yield; new Shiller metric

???? What the heck is an " in-sample forecasted returns?" How can a "forecast" be "in-sample?" Is "in-sample forecast" an euphemism for "backtest?" In-sample forecast means that they determine their parameters using the full data set, and then perform a forecast on the data that the algorithm has already seen. In machine learning lingo, they have no test or validation set. This is guaranteed tor result in overfitting. An out of sample forecast means that the parameters are determined on a different set of data. For example if you want to test how good your forecast of 1980 is, you are only allowed to use data that was actually available in 1980 (the training set) to determine the parameters...
by columbia
Wed Dec 16, 2020 5:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Tesla being added to the S&P 500 concerning?
Replies: 87
Views: 11313

Re: Is Tesla being added to the S&P 500 concerning?

To set the record straight on Tesla: it's not moving from any other midcap funds:

It is - and has been - in the Vanguard Large Cap fund.
by columbia
Tue Dec 15, 2020 9:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Podcast with Rick Ferri
Replies: 17
Views: 2833

Re: Podcast with Rick Ferri

Attention should be paid to the comments about all investors having a need for different portfolios.
by columbia
Tue Dec 15, 2020 6:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VTSAX vs. VFINX...Will they always almost be the same?
Replies: 29
Views: 2676

Re: VTSAX vs. VFINX...Will they always almost be the same?

Im not a math guy but it appears they would average out. I just want to make sure I am not doing something stupid. All of my money is in VTSAX but my wife only has an s&P500 index option with her work. It appears that they will have very similar returns over the long term so I guess I am overthinking things. For what it is worth, I prefer larger cap and a requirement for 4 quarters of sequential profits to be considered (S&P 500). It is mostly a psychological benefit to allow me to stay the course as the returns are almost identical over long periods of time. :thumbsup I also prefer S&P's methodology... The positive earnings requirement you mentioned, the seasoning requirements (no IPOs), as well as the more recent addition to ...
by columbia
Tue Dec 15, 2020 8:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VTSAX vs. VFINX...Will they always almost be the same?
Replies: 29
Views: 2676

Re: VTSAX vs. VFINX...Will they always almost be the same?

Annual returns 1993-present:

Vanguard 500: 9.93%
TSM: 9.98%

Something very strange would need to happen, for the annual returns to tangibly deviate in the years to come.
by columbia
Mon Dec 14, 2020 6:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Tesla being added to the S&P 500 concerning?
Replies: 87
Views: 11313

Re: Is Tesla being added to the S&P 500 concerning?

I take what the (US) market brings me, but if I thought that Tesla's valuation were that out of whack, the next logical step would be to question being an index investor. It seems really odd to bow at the alter of total market investing and simultaneously think that its participants are stupid. Maybe some here should play the active game....
by columbia
Sun Dec 13, 2020 7:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VTI holds $0-1 market cap companies
Replies: 30
Views: 3512

Re: VTI holds $0-1 market cap companies

Not sure about 'a lot', this is like mattress change. You can always buy a smaller haystack like the S&P 500. I don't get the benefit of buying VTI over VOO. Historically small and medium-sized companies outperform large companies. You don't get small and medium-sized companies in the SP500. If you owned the total stock market, you bought Tesla at a pre-split +-25/share. If you own the SP500 you're buying it at a pre-split +-3000/share Some of the S&P 500 companies are small and medium sized. By Morningstar's methodology, if you held at S&P 500 equal weight portfolio like RSP it would be mostly medium-sized companies https://i.postimg.cc/HnCVwNPR/RSP.png ... And yet the "total stock market" historically hasn't outperf...
by columbia
Sun Dec 13, 2020 8:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If Bonds are so Terrible, Why are they up so much for the year?
Replies: 155
Views: 14526

Re: If Bonds are so Terrible, Why are they up so much for the year?

The infamous "Taper Tantrum" in the spring of (as I recall) 2013: "Rates have bottomed out! They have nowhere to go but up!" Charts are from this site: They certainly did go up . . . then they went back down . . . then . . . The 10-year Treasury from January 2013: https://i.ibb.co/0st3Jyw/Jan-2013.jpg The 10-year from January 1962: https://i.ibb.co/jz34N3g/Jan-1962.jpg Good luck picking an entry and exit point in the future. It is no easier than picking a point for stocks. From my 30/70 portfolio, it did +8.7% YTD. I have bonds of all sorts, from a CEF to Treasuries. That bottom chart seems to make a case not to invest in bonds at the moment. Where is a reasonable return going to come from with bond indexes? The chart c...
by columbia
Fri Dec 11, 2020 11:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 500 Index preferred over Total Market
Replies: 70
Views: 7211

Re: 500 Index preferred over Total Market

It's a matter of preference and your choice will never have a material impact on your financial life.
by columbia
Thu Dec 10, 2020 6:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emerging Markets Index Fund Role
Replies: 45
Views: 3803

Re: Emerging Markets Index Fund Role

While I wouldn't invest in emerging markets, including (or avoiding) it hasn't made an tangible difference in total return for ex-US: https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-asset-class-allocation?s=y&mode=1&timePeriod=4&startYear=1997&firstMonth=1&endYear=2020&lastMonth=12&calendarAligned=true&includeYTD=false&initialAmount=10000&annualOperation=0&annualAdjustment=0&inflationAdjusted=true&annualPercentage=0.0&frequency=4&rebalanceType=1&absoluteDeviation=5.0&relativeDeviation=25.0&portfolioNames=false&portfolioName1=Portfolio+1&portfolioName2=Portfolio+2&portfolioName3=Portfolio+3&asset1=IntlStockMarket&allocation1_1=100&asset2=IntlDevelope...
by columbia
Wed Dec 09, 2020 7:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What ETFs would you like to see Vanguard do next?
Replies: 86
Views: 6550

Re: What ETFs would you like to see Vanguard do next?

The Vanguard Inflation-Protected Securities Fund is not an index fund. I don't know why not, and it doesn't seem to have mattered since VAIPX (blue) has performed virtually identically compared to two TIPS index ETF, TIP (orange) and TIPZ (green). But, yeah. I assume there's some technical/regulatory reason why they can't convert VAIPX into an index fund, but I'd like to see a full TIPS index product with a ticker symbol beginning with V. For no important reason. And if they can't do it as a mutual fund, then let it be an ETF. It is because the TIPS Index is a very poor "investable" index. If you are a index fund you have to follow the index. Every day you are expected to buy and sell bonds in the exact proportion of the index. T...
by columbia
Wed Dec 09, 2020 3:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What ETFs would you like to see Vanguard do next?
Replies: 86
Views: 6550

Re: What ETFs would you like to see Vanguard do next?

It seems like they should offer a free float of total world stock & bond.
by columbia
Wed Dec 09, 2020 12:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vg Makes Rare Retreat as Price War It Started Takes a Toll
Replies: 142
Views: 15026

Re: Vg Makes Rare Retreat as Price War It Started Takes a Toll

They are still my Dad's investnent company - he's 85.
by columbia
Wed Dec 09, 2020 5:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Vanguard retirement funds don't use leverage?
Replies: 20
Views: 2283

Re: Why Vanguard retirement funds don't use leverage?

Vanguard offers a number of questionable investments these days, so I wouldn't be shocked to see them get into the leverage game. I'd be surprised, but not shocked.
by columbia
Tue Dec 08, 2020 3:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard explains why they expect international outperformance
Replies: 122
Views: 12620

Re: Vanguard explains why they expect international outperformance

So in other words: Buy US equities because they are going to appreciate more than international equities over the next 19 years. Got it. Thanks! :moneybag :moneybag :moneybag Correct! I honestly can't see why this is a discussion. It's crystal clear that no matter how much time goes by or what factors affect the global economic landscape, US-Only investing will always be 100% foolproof - for eternity. How could this ever change when it has worked so well? US Stocks will always outperform international - that's all you need to know as an investor. Price, Earnings, Fundamentals, and literally any other metric are nothing more than straw-man arguments in this unnecessary conversation. All that matters here is past performance, the location of...
by columbia
Tue Dec 08, 2020 9:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard explains why they expect international outperformance
Replies: 122
Views: 12620

Re: Vanguard explains why they expect international outperformance

To everyone who is certain that international will inevitably outperform US, why are you not 100% international? I've not seen anyone claim any level of certainty on this. I think the main argument for holding both is is precisely the opposite, the lack of certainty either way altogether. Conversely to your point, anyone certain that 100% US is the way to go might be the perfect client for RWUI (Direxion FTSE Russell US Over International ETF). At 150 % Long US / 50% Short International, the net leverage is 0% and you get a sweet boost for US dominance over International, well in excess of the expense ratio. Plus, it is only recalibrated monthly, so it should trim out some of the volatility that might occur when investors accidentally pay ...
by columbia
Tue Dec 08, 2020 5:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard explains why they expect international outperformance
Replies: 122
Views: 12620

Re: Vanguard explains why they expect international outperformance

It's like that neighbor who borrowed a shovel and has been promising to return it for a decade: I'll believe it when I see it.
by columbia
Mon Dec 07, 2020 8:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Tesla being added to the S&P 500 concerning?
Replies: 87
Views: 11313

Re: Is Tesla being added to the S&P 500 concerning?

I don't know that Tesla's stock is overvalued, but I would agree there are a lot of good reasons to support that line. Doesn't make it so. Amazon stock was also "overvalued" for pretty much all of its existence... and it's been a star performer even after being added to the S&P 500. When Tesla's stock gets added, it will likely make up something around 1% of the index. The thing we don't have now, that there was a ton of in the late 1990's, is IPO's of stocks with dubious potential. There's not 20 Tesla car companies, there's one... I will grant that there is a Nikola Corp. that looks a bit dubious, but, I still don't think we're at the dot-com boom fervor for these companies. We also don't have a lot of other good investment...
by columbia
Sun Dec 06, 2020 3:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What Bonds to Use when Interest Rates are So Low?
Replies: 40
Views: 6416

Re: What Bonds to Use when Interest Rates are So Low?

z3r0c00l wrote: Sat Dec 05, 2020 3:46 pm
columbia wrote: Sat Dec 05, 2020 3:29 pm An underappreciated offering is the Vanguard short term bond index fund:
https://investor.vanguard.com/mutual-fu ... file/vbirx

As an aside, it's never (starting with 1995) provided a negative nominal annual return (if that sort of thing matters to you).
Not sure how one can appreciate a .34% percent yield. Ally bank accounts offer nearly double that. With that observation, I question the need for bond mutual funds at all. Instead I would suggest alternatives like bank accounts, EE bonds, and I bonds. Lots of institutions have no choice but to buy government bonds at almost any price. Individuals like us can shop around and use alternatives open only to us.

I don't own any bonds, but the OP does want to; hence the thread.
by columbia
Sat Dec 05, 2020 3:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What Bonds to Use when Interest Rates are So Low?
Replies: 40
Views: 6416

Re: What Bonds to Use when Interest Rates are So Low?

An underappreciated offering is the Vanguard short term bond index fund:
https://investor.vanguard.com/mutual-fu ... file/vbirx

As an aside, it's never (starting with 1995) provided a negative nominal annual return (if that sort of thing matters to you).
by columbia
Fri Dec 04, 2020 5:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: High valuations, CAPE, and passive investing
Replies: 103
Views: 7490

Re: High valuations, CAPE, and passive investing

What's the argument for the CAPE value being actionable?
by columbia
Tue Dec 01, 2020 9:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tesla leaving Extended for S&P500.
Replies: 37
Views: 5239

Re: Tesla leaving Extended for S&P500.

I did read about this in the Wall Street Journal. This is resulting in additional buying as the company is added to the S&P 500 index, thus helping the increase in share price. Crazy how this company has been valued higher than GM! Tesla's market cap is more than five times the value of Ford and GM combined ? :shock: Tesla: $560 billion GM: $64 billion Ford: $36 billion Tesla easily overvalued by 10x against any reasonable future scenario. Forget comparisons to other car companies, they are worth 100 billion more than Walmart right now. Walmart that has $520 billion in annual revenue, that owns 75,000 acres of land with thousands of stores, warehouses, trucks, a company that could potentially rival Amazon in online retail. I see TSLA a...
by columbia
Tue Dec 01, 2020 8:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mark Hulbert on the next decade
Replies: 13
Views: 2270

Re: Mark Hulbert on the next decade

I definitely know that neither this gentleman nor I know how US stocks will perform over the next decade.
by columbia
Tue Dec 01, 2020 6:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tesla leaving Extended for S&P500.
Replies: 37
Views: 5239

Re: Tesla leaving Extended for S&P500.

I did read about this in the Wall Street Journal. This is resulting in additional buying as the company is added to the S&P 500 index, thus helping the increase in share price. Crazy how this company has been valued higher than GM! Tesla's market cap is more than five times the value of Ford and GM combined ? :shock: Tesla: $560 billion GM: $64 billion Ford: $36 billion Tesla easily overvalued by 10x against any reasonable future scenario. Forget comparisons to other car companies, they are worth 100 billion more than Walmart right now. Walmart that has $520 billion in annual revenue, that owns 75,000 acres of land with thousands of stores, warehouses, trucks, a company that could potentially rival Amazon in online retail. I see TSLA a...
by columbia
Mon Nov 30, 2020 6:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: You are probably invested in Bitcoin now
Replies: 68
Views: 11025

Re: You are probably invested in Bitcoin now

bullmoose85 wrote: Mon Nov 30, 2020 4:49 pm
columbia wrote: Mon Nov 30, 2020 2:39 pm
bullmoose85 wrote: Mon Nov 30, 2020 12:28 pm
columbia wrote: Sun Nov 29, 2020 3:15 pm I don't have any exposure to the garbage company mentioned in the OP, but assume that any number of companies in Vanguard 500 own Bitcoin. Meh; lots of them own other commodities, too.
This "garbage company" is up over 20% today and 98% in the last month.
Seems like a really stable company: people should definitely bet the (bitcoin mining server) farm on it.
Nice straw man.
I'm just having fun, but this is the wrong forum for people thinking that a single stock, which is loaded up with Bitcoin, is a good idea.
by columbia
Mon Nov 30, 2020 2:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: You are probably invested in Bitcoin now
Replies: 68
Views: 11025

Re: You are probably invested in Bitcoin now

bullmoose85 wrote: Mon Nov 30, 2020 12:28 pm
columbia wrote: Sun Nov 29, 2020 3:15 pm I don't have any exposure to the garbage company mentioned in the OP, but assume that any number of companies in Vanguard 500 own Bitcoin. Meh; lots of them own other commodities, too.
This "garbage company" is up over 20% today and 98% in the last month.
Seems like a really stable company: people should definitely bet the (bitcoin mining server) farm on it.
by columbia
Sun Nov 29, 2020 8:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is the worst time to enter SP500?
Replies: 26
Views: 3202

Re: What is the worst time to enter SP500?

Alternately:

What does a successful 21st economy look like without tech (and we know that's a broad term, which goes beyond current sector classifications) being successful?
by columbia
Sun Nov 29, 2020 3:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: You are probably invested in Bitcoin now
Replies: 68
Views: 11025

Re: You are probably invested in Bitcoin now

I don't have any exposure to the garbage company mentioned in the OP, but assume that any number of companies in Vanguard 500 own Bitcoin. Meh; lots of them own other commodities, too.
by columbia
Fri Nov 27, 2020 9:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Vanguard's Factor Funds' days numbered?
Replies: 37
Views: 4917

Re: Are Vanguard's Factor Funds' days numbered?

000 wrote: Fri Nov 27, 2020 8:54 pm After the strategy changes with Metals & Mining (summer 2019?) and Energy and the closure of U.S. Value (merged into Value Index) and other active value funds all before a resurgence in the original strategies, I don't think Vanguard can be trusted to stay the course with non-vanilla funds.
The root question is why an investor would trust the idea of investing in a non-vanilla fund.
by columbia
Fri Nov 27, 2020 8:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How does Vanguard determine “Risk potential” for their funds?
Replies: 20
Views: 2118

Re: How does Vanguard determine “Risk potential” for their funds?

I don't know Vanguard's methodology, but it would behoove investors to take it seriously when they assign their highest risk rating to a bond fund: EDV.
by columbia
Thu Nov 26, 2020 12:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Not Experiencing Any Problems With Vanguard
Replies: 175
Views: 16357

Re: Not Experiencing Any Problems With Vanguard

I don't pay them to be my accountant or lawyer (or priest or cook), so never an issue.
by columbia
Thu Nov 26, 2020 6:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Electric vehicle industry - Is there a good ETF for this sector?
Replies: 7
Views: 1536

Re: Electric vehicle industry - Is there a good ETF for this sector?

If I were to guess, there will be - in a relative sense - fewer cars sold in the coming decades: I'm greatly looking forward to booking a car (internal combustion
or electric - and likely autonomous) for all personal travel and never having to own one. We might not be close to it making sense from personal economic choice, but we're headed there.

(This might not happen in the middle of <insert state>, but I won't ever be living in a place like that. :) .)
by columbia
Wed Nov 25, 2020 12:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Silliest Investment Mistakes?
Replies: 176
Views: 21053

Re: Silliest Investment Mistakes?

Holding VXX (VIX futures) for about 6 (?) months.

(I bought at $27 and sold at $34, but even dabbling in that sort of thing was dumb.)
by columbia
Tue Nov 24, 2020 6:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VMVFX (Global Minimum Volatility) as core equity holding. Your opinion?
Replies: 183
Views: 20842

Re: VMVFX (Global Minimum Volatility) as core equity holding. Your opinion?

Like all active approaches - don't be fooled by the index aspect; it's still an active bet - the croupiers win and you might or might not.
by columbia
Sun Nov 22, 2020 3:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Impact of ESG/SRI investments?
Replies: 6
Views: 653

Re: Impact of ESG/SRI investments?

Larry Swedroe summarized the case for expecting lower returns:
https://www.etf.com/sections/index-inve ... erformance
by columbia
Sun Nov 22, 2020 11:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ray Dalio don't own bonds/cash
Replies: 86
Views: 10213

Re: Ray Dalio don't own bonds/cash

William Million wrote: Sun Nov 22, 2020 11:05 am I hold 50% FI because it suits my objectives.

I'm retired and draw 4%. If the stock market rises, great. If it drops, I can still draw 4% until the market turns around.

I wish FI paid more but my goal is the 4% SWR, not appreciation from FI.
Do you take a straight 4% or started with 4 and then inflation adjusted?
by columbia
Sat Nov 21, 2020 7:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast hits 500,000 downloads!
Replies: 28
Views: 4341

Re: "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast hits 500,000 downloads!

Rick Ferri wrote: Sat Nov 21, 2020 6:54 pm
columbia wrote: Sat Nov 21, 2020 5:22 pm I'd like to hear an interview with someone from TIAA, with an emphasis on the Traditional and TREA funds.
My goal is to select guests who can speak on topics of general interest to large segments of the Boglehead community.

Rick Ferri
Ok, that's reasonable, but I'm not sure how interviewing hedge fund billionaires maps over to people worrying about having enough money to make it through retirement.
by columbia
Sat Nov 21, 2020 5:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast hits 500,000 downloads!
Replies: 28
Views: 4341

Re: "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast hits 500,000 downloads!

I'd like to hear an interview with someone from TIAA, with an emphasis on the Traditional and TREA funds. We - the nationwide participants - are not a small number.
by columbia
Fri Nov 20, 2020 8:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 90% VTSAX & 10% Bitcoin (GBTC)
Replies: 76
Views: 8440

Re: 90% VTSAX & 10% Bitcoin (GBTC)

000 wrote: Fri Nov 20, 2020 8:30 pm
bogivan wrote: Fri Nov 20, 2020 8:24 pm
000 wrote: Fri Nov 20, 2020 6:52 pm Are you sure that GBTC is even allowed in a Roth account? I would hate to find out years down the road that it was a prohibited transaction, which would count as a irrevocable distribution from the date of purchase.
Why would it not be allowed? Even before GBTC existed, people were buying BTC directly with self-directed IRAs. Having a regulated security in your brokerage would be even less questionable. The only "prohibited transactions" that currently exist for IRAs have to do with self-dealing behaviors.
It depends on what GBTC actually "is".

Collectibles, for example, are generally prohibited in IRAs.
Gold is taxed as a collectible, but you can still buy it in an IRA.
by columbia
Fri Nov 20, 2020 3:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tesla finally added to S&P 500 - Concerns from Reckenthaler
Replies: 58
Views: 5563

Re: Tesla finally added to S&P 500 - Concerns from Reckenthaler

Rowan Oak wrote: Fri Nov 20, 2020 2:46 pm
nisiprius wrote: Fri Nov 20, 2020 1:15 pm Owning Total Stock isn't going to protect me or anything, but it is going to free me from anxieties about the addition of Tesla, because I've been owning Tesla since 2010 or so. If Tesla crashes, I lose perhaps 1% or 1.5% of what I have in Total Stock, but it will just be money that I had previously gained from the run-up in Tesla because of having owned it for years.
This. ^^^

Why worry about what the S&P 500 does anymore? Investors haven't needed to since around 1992 (Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund (VTSMX) inception).
I own the Vanguard 500 (in several accounts) and am not in any way worried by the addition of Tesla.
by columbia
Thu Nov 19, 2020 6:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ray Dalio don't own bonds/cash
Replies: 86
Views: 10213

Re: Ray Dalio don't own bonds/cash

Robot Monster wrote: Thu Nov 19, 2020 5:18 pm
bigskyguy wrote: Thu Nov 19, 2020 3:13 pm Given the present environment, one can realistically estimate realreturns going forward:

Cash -2%
10 Year Treasury -1%
Equities 2-4%
BlackRock has a page on asset return expectations over various time periods you might be interested in checking out. link
Who knows, but I took an odd pleasure in seeing that they also thing LTT are a bad idea. The worst, at timeframe most of interest to me (15 years).
by columbia
Thu Nov 19, 2020 10:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tesla added to S&P 500 index
Replies: 310
Views: 36099

Re: [Tesla added to S&P 500 index]

All the folks shorting TSLA in the BH contest was probably a good indicator to fade the public. :o
by columbia
Thu Nov 19, 2020 9:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ray Dalio don't own bonds/cash
Replies: 86
Views: 10213

Re: Ray Dalio don't own bonds/cash

re:anyone who takes his advice

I hope they're not planning on Dalio paying their bills, if stocks go down and don't come back for half a decade or more.
by columbia
Wed Nov 18, 2020 6:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Check my math? Wellington 4%-real withdrawals fail every starting year from 1962-1969?
Replies: 26
Views: 3763

Re: Check my math? Wellington 4%-real withdrawals fail every starting year from 1962-1969?

That should not be a real surprise. Talk about sequence of return risk. Market was high and went down. LBJ lost control of the deficit, Nixon took us off the gold standard and imposed wage and price controls leading up to the 1972 election, inflation soared, OPEC took the price of oil from $3 to $10 then to $30 a barrel at a time when production was much more energy intensive than now. So inflation in the 1970s killed the market and to kill inflation the FED took interest rates to 18%. The 70s was about the time the rest of the world recovered from WWII, so steel, auto, and textile industries started to run into competitive pressures for the first time in decades, we’d gotten fat and lazy. 1968-82 was a bruising time and if you retired int...
by columbia
Tue Nov 17, 2020 8:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fed up With Flagship
Replies: 291
Views: 25003

Re: Fed up With Flagship

I've never called Vanguard...

What special treatment is desired?
by columbia
Tue Nov 17, 2020 8:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Not all Lazy Portfolios are Equal. Help!
Replies: 44
Views: 5373

Re: Not all Lazy Portfolios are Equal. Help!

One persons opinion, but with very aging parents I increasingly see the value of a single fund portfolio. I hope the "optimizers" here are smart enough to know that simplicity is of great value.
by columbia
Mon Nov 16, 2020 8:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tesla added to S&P 500 index
Replies: 310
Views: 36099

Re: [Tesla added to S&P 500 index]

As a Vanguard 500 owner, this pleases me.

It also pleases me that I won't ever own all of the "hot" companies, that flame out before it even being a possibility.