Search found 776 matches

by columbia
Sat Aug 18, 2018 6:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 531
Views: 30539

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

Speaking of Wellesley: I do know of an equity index fund, which has lagged the former by 2.5% a year since 1996; the life of said fund. I’ll let the reader guess what that is. ;)
by columbia
Fri Aug 17, 2018 8:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 531
Views: 30539

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

Quick question:

What happens to the opinion of the global cap diehards, if the US outperformance extends to 40 or 50 years? Stay the course?
by columbia
Thu Aug 16, 2018 8:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to Underperform the Market
Replies: 45
Views: 3961

Re: How to Underperform the Market

Investing in Russia comes to mind.
by columbia
Thu Aug 16, 2018 7:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 531
Views: 30539

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

It’s convinced me that people with different investment timelines do and should have different opinions on this particular subject. I wouldn’t hesitate to have VT as my line stock holding, if I were 30.


I am most certainly not 30.
by columbia
Thu Aug 16, 2018 1:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 531
Views: 30539

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

So now one of the arguments for international is that the US dollar might collapse, while the rest of the world hums along....surely no one actually believes that.
by columbia
Thu Aug 16, 2018 6:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jack Bogle - Two Fund Portfolio
Replies: 83
Views: 16850

Re: Jack Bogle - Two Fund Portfolio

One could do a lot worse than TSM/SP500/Total world & TBM/Short or intermediate treasuries.

Why complicate things?
by columbia
Thu Aug 16, 2018 5:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bullish/bearish on GE? Make your case here - new lows today
Replies: 57
Views: 4054

Re: Bullish/bearish on GE? Make your case here - new lows today

GE is doing decade lows today. I bought $2000 worth at 12.xx today . [...] I don't really know anything about the company other than that I buy their light bulbs and they made my oven. And people are worried that indexing is going to take over the world and ruin capitalism..... :sharebeer In all se...
by columbia
Wed Aug 15, 2018 4:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 531
Views: 30539

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

Since cognitive bias has been invoked numerous times: isn’t criticizing the choices of others, because they don’t match yours a cognitive bias? ;) Hey, there's a cognitive bias for that one too! https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/False_equivalence :wink: That was my polite way of saying that there’s bee...
by columbia
Wed Aug 15, 2018 3:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 531
Views: 30539

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

Since cognitive bias has been invoked numerous times: isn’t criticizing the choices of others, because they don’t match yours a cognitive bias? ;)
by columbia
Tue Aug 14, 2018 7:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 531
Views: 30539

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

With a keen knowledge of the concept of "Stay the Course" and "Don't Buy High and Sell Low" and most importantly "Don't Try to Time the Market" I cannot simply put my head in the sand and pretend that the last ten years or more have been anything other then a disappointment for those of us with Int...
by columbia
Tue Aug 14, 2018 2:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 531
Views: 30539

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

One of the most dangerous things we are going to start seeing for investors is that 2008 is falling off of the 10 years look back period most people consider long term. Keep in mind this means we aren't capturing a complete economic cycle. As far as the whole international is a disaster thing, if y...
by columbia
Tue Aug 14, 2018 1:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 531
Views: 30539

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

It’s your money and you should skip international, if that is your preference.
by columbia
Mon Aug 13, 2018 10:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International stocks in free fall
Replies: 151
Views: 19343

Re: International stocks in free fall

Vanguard total international stock index (admiral and investor shares) just half a percent away from 52 week lows after the close today :shock: There will soon be a bevy of TLH posts that will continue until the crescendo in late December. My suspicion is that these opportunities will persist in th...
by columbia
Mon Aug 13, 2018 9:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New York Times--Vanguard Warns of Worsening Odds for the Economy and Markets
Replies: 67
Views: 9614

Re: New York Times--Vanguard Warns of Worsening Odds for the Economy and Markets

What historically has happened after a 10 year bull market run? It's been 10 years if you measure wrong. Many people count the bull to new all-time highs in 2013, and even that's been broken since. Aside from the steepness of the last two crashes, the market looks pretty much the same as ever. We'v...
by columbia
Mon Aug 13, 2018 9:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bill Gross' fund, lately...
Replies: 14
Views: 2173

Re: Bill Gross' fund, lately...

So-called bond king Gross has been ‘wrong and wrong badly,’ his boss at Janus says
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/so-ca ... op_stories
by columbia
Sun Aug 12, 2018 6:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Press Release--Vanguard Continues To Expand Active Fixed Income Offerings With Proposed Global Credit Bond Fund
Replies: 9
Views: 1174

Re: Press Release--Vanguard Continues To Expand Active Fixed Income Offerings With Proposed Global Credit Bond Fund

I’m not interested in non-US debt, but I suppose I can see the theoretical appeal of the international component of this fund, as opposed to BNDX. Why would an investor want the proportions/weights of the various countries in that fund? Simply because they carry the most debt (in the context of the ...
by columbia
Sun Aug 12, 2018 4:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: (NEW) WisdomTree 90/60 U.S. Balanced Fund
Replies: 114
Views: 6083

Re: (NEW) WisdomTree 90/60 U.S. Balanced Fund

I recommend you this book: https://www.amazon.com/Options-Futures-Other-Derivatives-10th/dp/013447208X/ref=dp_ob_title_bk I realize your post was not directed at me, but I have an MBA, and I've never read a book that is exclusively about derivatives. So I feel my knowledge on the subject is too cas...
by columbia
Sun Aug 12, 2018 7:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International stocks in free fall
Replies: 151
Views: 19343

Re: International stocks in free fall

Here is an interesting data point to consider: On August 8, 2011, then infamous "U.S. stocks in freefall" thread began. Here is the result of that thread, from the point of view of an investor who placed a mutual fund traade when the thread appeared (thus receiving the end of day prices): On June 2...
by columbia
Sun Aug 12, 2018 7:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New York Times--Vanguard Warns of Worsening Odds for the Economy and Markets
Replies: 67
Views: 9614

Re: New York Times--Vanguard Warns of Worsening Odds for the Economy and Markets

I take such concerns seriously and I tend to take them even more seriously, when I see others disregard them. You never want to be the last person with your head in the sand.

And, yes, I have indeed reduced my equity exposure during this calendar year. :)
by columbia
Sun Aug 12, 2018 6:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Turkey/Turkish Stocks down 32% - approaching 2008 levels
Replies: 96
Views: 9762

Re: Turkey/Turkish Stocks down 32% - approaching 2008 levels

Turkey is such a small portion of the Total International Stock Index Fund, yet the fund lost nearly 2% today. I'm ready to seriously rethink the international stock portion (33%) of my equity allocation. And this isn't about market timing. It seems to be an recurring pattern. Something bad happens...
by columbia
Sun Aug 12, 2018 5:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [New Vanguard website layout starting Saturday, August 11]
Replies: 115
Views: 7566

Re: [New Vanguard website layout starting Saturday, August 11]

am wrote:
Sat Aug 11, 2018 9:01 pm
Its unbelievable how a firm with trillions in assets could have such a poor website
It started in the last 6 months with the publicly facing pages. They have systematically made their web framework fail any reasonable usability standard.
by columbia
Fri Aug 10, 2018 9:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Turkey/Turkish Stocks down 32% - approaching 2008 levels
Replies: 96
Views: 9762

Re: Turkey/Turkish Stocks down 32% - approaching 2008 levels

Demographic trends in Turkey do not look good, I would stay away. Its ridiculously low global cap weight aside, it’s one of the reasons that - at a low enough cost - actively managed international holdings should at least be considered: some countries just aren’t worth the associated risk. (I don’t...
by columbia
Fri Aug 10, 2018 8:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Valuations Too High?
Replies: 207
Views: 11262

Re: Larry Swedroe: Valuations Too High?

I'm willing to accept that CAPE10 can't tell us whether stocks are overpriced. But, I can't help but wonder what stock prices would look like if CAPE could do that? The point is, they'd look exactly the same, because the market would price-in the dire CAPE10 warning. One would think that the pessim...
by columbia
Thu Aug 09, 2018 5:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: (NEW) WisdomTree 90/60 U.S. Balanced Fund
Replies: 114
Views: 6083

Re: (NEW) WisdomTree 90/60 U.S. Balanced Fund

Take me through the mechanics of a 40% drop in the market. This fund performs better than Vanguard Balanced Index because ________.

(I think I know why, but would be interested in the real answer.)


Thanks
by columbia
Thu Aug 09, 2018 8:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: (NEW) WisdomTree 90/60 U.S. Balanced Fund
Replies: 114
Views: 6083

Re: (NEW) WisdomTree 90/60 U.S. Balanced Fund

How many funds/ETFs disappeared after the last crash? This is a fairly exotic idea and could certainly see it being abandoned in the afternath if some ugly market times.
by columbia
Thu Aug 09, 2018 6:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HBO Hard Knocks Clip - Compound Interest Clip
Replies: 10
Views: 1306

Re: HBO Hard Knocks Clip - Compound Interest Clip

Good candidates to own Vanguard Tax-Managed Balanced Fund.
by columbia
Wed Aug 08, 2018 9:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: (NEW) WisdomTree 90/60 U.S. Balanced Fund
Replies: 114
Views: 6083

Re: (NEW) WisdomTree 90/60 U.S. Balanced Fund

Historically since 1930, a portfolio like this would have theoretically had returns about 24% higher than a 100/0 portfolio with 8% less annual volatility. So I think it is interesting in principle. Out of curiosity: link? Here's a link to a backtest in PortfolioVisualizer (with the caveat the quic...
by columbia
Wed Aug 08, 2018 8:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: (NEW) WisdomTree 90/60 U.S. Balanced Fund
Replies: 114
Views: 6083

Re: (NEW) WisdomTree 90/60 U.S. Balanced Fund

And here I thought I was overweight in Peru. ;)
by columbia
Wed Aug 08, 2018 8:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: (NEW) WisdomTree 90/60 U.S. Balanced Fund
Replies: 114
Views: 6083

Re: (NEW) WisdomTree 90/60 U.S. Balanced Fund

The country allocation is certainly interesting:

1. United States 98.62%
2. Ireland 0.41%
3. United Kingdom 0.32%
4. Switzerland 0.24%
5. Netherlands 0.21%
6. Bermuda 0.06%
7. Israel 0.04%
8. Peru 0.04%
9. China 0.03%
10. Russia 0.03%
by columbia
Wed Aug 08, 2018 7:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: (NEW) WisdomTree 90/60 U.S. Balanced Fund
Replies: 114
Views: 6083

Re: (NEW) WisdomTree 90/60 U.S. Balanced Fund

Historically since 1930, a portfolio like this would have theoretically had returns about 24% higher than a 100/0 portfolio with 8% less annual volatility. So I think it is interesting in principle. Out of curiosity: link? Aargh. I computed it in Excel but I’m not at my computer now. I’ll try to ad...
by columbia
Wed Aug 08, 2018 7:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: (NEW) WisdomTree 90/60 U.S. Balanced Fund
Replies: 114
Views: 6083

Re: (NEW) WisdomTree 90/60 U.S. Balanced Fund

Historically since 1930, a portfolio like this would have theoretically had returns about 24% higher than a 100/0 portfolio with 8% less annual volatility. So I think it is interesting in principle.
Out of curiosity: link?
by columbia
Wed Aug 08, 2018 6:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: (NEW) WisdomTree 90/60 U.S. Balanced Fund
Replies: 114
Views: 6083

Re: (NEW) WisdomTree 90/60 U.S. Balanced Fund

One of the key points of leveraged funds is that the buyer is expected to be smart enough to sell before it crashes (x 1.5)?
by columbia
Mon Aug 06, 2018 11:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Age in Bonds" fails almost everyone
Replies: 217
Views: 12798

Re: "Age in Bonds" fails almost everyone

At the very least it'd keep them from making unforced errors like having 50% of their retirement portfolio in bonds while they are in their 30s. A higher stock allocation provides no guarantees. Would you have thought that Wellesley would provide higher returns than VASGX (80% stock) since 1994? I ...
by columbia
Sun Aug 05, 2018 9:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Portfolio Pain Happens
Replies: 49
Views: 4689

Re: Larry Swedroe: Portfolio Pain Happens

To be helpful here, with a couple of key points We had recommended including REITS as separate asset class. Now we do not because the evidence shows that nothing really special about REITs, as their returns are well explained by exposure to common factors, basically size, value and term, and defaul...
by columbia
Sun Aug 05, 2018 9:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The stock market is shrinking.
Replies: 68
Views: 7241

Re: The stock market is shrinking.

If an “outsider” can get greater than market returns from the private equity sphere (though a publicly available trading vehicle), it stands to reason that would require some evidence of it actually being true. Like that old Wendy’s commercial: “Where’s the beef?” That’s entirely different than havi...
by columbia
Sun Aug 05, 2018 7:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The stock market is shrinking.
Replies: 68
Views: 7241

Re: The stock market is shrinking.

The author of that article warns about companies smaller than Russell 200 index. This chart is limited in time by the life of the IWL etf, but is that really an issue? https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&timePeriod=4&startYear=1987&firstMonth=1&endYear=2018&lastMonth=12&endDat...
by columbia
Sun Aug 05, 2018 7:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The stock market is shrinking.
Replies: 68
Views: 7241

Re: The stock market is shrinking.

Owning just the SP500 seems to have worked out well for a lot of investors, so I’m not sure what the real problem is (related to that article).
by columbia
Fri Aug 03, 2018 2:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is SEC yield of any value?
Replies: 42
Views: 5071

Re: Is SEC yield of any value?

Using the phrase “30 year bull market for bonds” is interesting, as it’s never clear what that is supposed to mean; aside from it supposedly just ended in 201?. If there’s a more accurate data set, then please let me know: https://dqydj.com/treasury-return-calculator/ 1988-2018: 5.17% annual return ...
by columbia
Thu Aug 02, 2018 1:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So go the FAANG, so goes the market?
Replies: 41
Views: 4451

Re: So go the FAANG, so goes the market?

Apple’s worldwide iPhone revenue through first three quarters of fiscal year:

2008 $1bn
2010 $16.4bn
2012 $62bn
2014 $78.3bn
2016 $108.5bn
2018 $129.5bn

Via Statista
by columbia
Wed Aug 01, 2018 5:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Matter/Scatter Part 5: International stocks
Replies: 12
Views: 1601

Re: Matter/Scatter Part 5: International stocks

Where U.S. was relatively unscathed from the various world wars and regional conflicts over the last century, many countries were not, which gave the U.S. in my personal opinion, a generational leap economically. How true. Having friendly neighbors ( I hope they are still friendly :happy ) and larg...
by columbia
Tue Jul 31, 2018 5:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Matter/Scatter Part 5: International stocks
Replies: 12
Views: 1601

Re: Matter/Scatter Part 5: International stocks

How early and how much you invest seemingly matters far more than if you decide to add any international. It’s an endless back and forth, so let that commence. ;)
by columbia
Mon Jul 30, 2018 6:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are stocks dangerously overvalued? Not according to new Vanguard yardstick
Replies: 84
Views: 8526

Re: Are stocks dangerously overvalued? Not according to new Vanguard yardstick

Elbowman wrote:
Mon Jul 30, 2018 4:21 pm
So the "less alarming" picture is 3-5% nominal? Considering you can get 4% nominal from intermediate corporates, is anyone considering a 15-20% reduction in their stock allocation?
I don’t think that would be irrational; others would disagree.
by columbia
Sun Jul 29, 2018 7:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Passive Index Investing, A Bubble Bound To Burst?
Replies: 114
Views: 11489

Re: Passive Index Investing, A Bubble Bound To Burst?

What do you expect from a site called seeking alpha and from a site called bogleheads? I came to the conclusion that low cost indexing was the best approach long before I joined bogleheads. This is really just based on the definition of average, and my belief that as a part time investor, I will lo...
by columbia
Sun Jul 29, 2018 2:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone Pulled the Trigger on Global Wellington/Wellesley?
Replies: 22
Views: 5747

Re: Anyone Pulled the Trigger on Global Wellington/Wellesley?

I just converted my Wellington and Wellesley stakes ($55k each) to their global counterparts. I want to stay in the stock market at my asset allocation, but with the Shiller 10 year PE showing the USA being so expensive, I think it is prudent to change these excellent funds to worldwide. It does ta...
by columbia
Sun Jul 29, 2018 11:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ray Dalio: Is it 1937 all over again?
Replies: 45
Views: 6094

Re: Ray Dalio: Is it 1937 all over again?

Using that chart to predict doom seems excessive. Having said, there are certainly indicators out there, which could be used to forecast a crash. I’m not a seer, however. :)
by columbia
Sat Jul 28, 2018 4:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vgd alt strategies fund (vasfx) open to retail investors?
Replies: 23
Views: 1835

Re: Vgd alt strategies fund (vasfx) open to retail investors?

A different type of return stream from that of stocks and bonds. It’s a mix of factors, commodities, and I think some merger arbitrage and currency stuff. These have risk but somewhat different risks than just straight stocks and bonds. Being a Vanguard fund, the expenses are way lower than a lot o...
by columbia
Sat Jul 28, 2018 1:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Passive Index Investing, A Bubble Bound To Burst?
Replies: 114
Views: 11489

Re: Passive Index Investing, A Bubble Bound To Burst?

The article is seemingly aimed at indexing in general, I do believe there is room for active investing internationally ; the goal being ruling out the obviously bad companies in obviously bad countries to invest. I don’t own such a fund, but the VG international growth and value funds are - IMHO - c...
by columbia
Sat Jul 28, 2018 11:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vgd alt strategies fund (vasfx) open to retail investors?
Replies: 23
Views: 1835

Re: Vgd alt strategies fund (vasfx) open to retail investors?

What is the goal for anyone who invests in this fund?