Search found 610 matches

by columbia
Sun May 20, 2018 6:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: China and EM
Replies: 20
Views: 1874

Re: China and EM

It seems inevitable that FTSE will eventually transition China to a developed market status. That would certainly have an interesting effect on an emerging markets fund like VWO. It seems ripe for a bloodbath, if you’re asleep at the switch and don’t sell off ahead of time. Why specifically would t...
by columbia
Sun May 20, 2018 3:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: China and EM
Replies: 20
Views: 1874

Re: China and EM

It seems inevitable that FTSE will eventually transition China to a developed market status.

That would certainly have an interesting effect on an emerging markets fund like VWO. It seems ripe for a bloodbath, if you’re asleep at the switch and don’t sell off ahead of time.
by columbia
Sat May 19, 2018 7:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: No Need For Corp Bonds?
Replies: 35
Views: 3108

Re: Larry Swedroe: No Need For Corp Bonds?

Can someone point me to a time when owning a broad based corporate bond fund led to losing a tangible percentage of money and that this was *specifically* due to companies defaulting on the bond payments? Isn't that a really hard thing to do, simply because of how the funds are set up? Aren't many ...
by columbia
Sat May 19, 2018 7:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: No Need For Corp Bonds?
Replies: 35
Views: 3108

Re: Larry Swedroe: No Need For Corp Bonds?

Can someone point me to a time when owning a broad based corporate bond fund led to losing a tangible percentage of money and that this was *specifically* due to companies defaulting on the bond payments?
by columbia
Tue May 15, 2018 8:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: John C. Bogle explains his interpretation of RTM (reversion to mean)
Replies: 6
Views: 1304

Re: John C. Bogle explains his interpretation of RTM (reversion to mean)

The subtext (of the OP) being that one should be skeptical of assumptions that ex-US equities will mean revert (whatever that supposedly means)?

If so, I agree. No one should assume anything about the future of financial markets.
by columbia
Sun May 13, 2018 7:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New inflation-protected ETF launches: iShares Inflation Hedged Corporate Bond ETF (LQDI)
Replies: 27
Views: 2189

Re: New inflation-protected ETF launches: iShares Inflation Hedged Corporate Bond ETF (LQDI)

Could be an interesting (and contrasting) 50/50 twin with a short term TIPS fund.

Thanks for posting.
by columbia
Wed May 09, 2018 9:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why International again?
Replies: 224
Views: 19847

Re: Why International again?

I've been listening to this "all you need" argument for decades. All you need is a small basket of carefully selected blue-chip dividend stocks. All you need is S&P 500. All you need is US stocks large and small. All you need is heavily tilted US portfolio with an underweighted ex-US allocation. Th...
by columbia
Wed May 09, 2018 7:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why International again?
Replies: 224
Views: 19847

Re: Why International again?

The inception date of Vanguard Total Stock U.S. Stock Market Index Fund ( VTSMX ) was 4/27/1992. The inception date of Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ( VGTSX ) was 4/29/1996. Per Morningstar , as of 5/8/2018, if you had invested $10,000 in both funds on 4/29/1996, you would currently...
by columbia
Wed May 09, 2018 1:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why International again?
Replies: 224
Views: 19847

Re: Why International again?

The inception date of Vanguard Total Stock U.S. Stock Market Index Fund ( VTSMX ) was 4/27/1992. The inception date of Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ( VGTSX ) was 4/29/1996. Per Morningstar , as of 5/8/2018, if you had invested $10,000 in both funds on 4/29/1996, you would currently...
by columbia
Wed May 09, 2018 1:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why International again?
Replies: 224
Views: 19847

Re: Why International again?

So to me, not holding half of the world's companies is not necessarily the sign of a lack of diversification or the sign of a suboptimal portfolio. I think you're overextrapolating the logic of Bill Sharpe's CAPM and taking too extreme a viewpoint. Or, to put it even better, you wrongly assume that...
by columbia
Tue May 08, 2018 6:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why International again?
Replies: 224
Views: 19847

Re: Why International again?

Looking over the allocation for VSMGX, which would be a perfectly reasonable buy and hold for life fund: https://personal.vanguard.com/us/funds/snapshot?FundIntExt=INT&FundId=0914&funds_disable_redirect=true#tab=2 Between stocks and bonds, just a touch over 36% is ex-US. That certainly seems reasona...
by columbia
Tue May 08, 2018 6:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do so many Americans not own stocks?
Replies: 44
Views: 3507

Re: Why do so many Americans not own stocks?

Conversation a few years ago with someone, who was in their late teens during the last major crash (and old enough to remember the details): “The stock market is like gambling in Vegas...” Whether the numbers indicate 20 somethingd are investing less in stocks, because of fear and student loan debt,...
by columbia
Mon May 07, 2018 7:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Total Bond - SEC yield breaks 3%
Replies: 97
Views: 10542

Re: Total Bond - SEC yield breaks 3%

Worrying about the ST return on this fund probably means that it was too aggressive of a choice. The vast majority of current investors have never seen a bear bond market. Not saying we're in one, but its been a bumpy downhill ride on interest rates since the fall of 1981. Maybe spring/summer 2016 ...
by columbia
Mon May 07, 2018 7:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Total Bond - SEC yield breaks 3%
Replies: 97
Views: 10542

Re: Total Bond - SEC yield breaks 3%

Worrying about the ST return on this fund probably means that it was too aggressive of a choice.
by columbia
Mon May 07, 2018 6:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Peer-to-peer lending as an investment?
Replies: 67
Views: 7556

Re: Peer-to-peer lending as an investment?

Morningstar doesn’t appear to offer any information on LENDX. It’s an interesting idea, but seemingly not for the masses.
by columbia
Sun May 06, 2018 12:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard New Factor Funds Portfolio Statistics
Replies: 152
Views: 16376

Re: Vanguard New Factor Funds Portfolio Statistics

I could see VG putting together a bond factor fund, combining it with the new 4 factor equity fund and selling a series of Life Strategy Factor funds.
by columbia
Sun May 06, 2018 8:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do stocks outperform Treasury Bills? Almost never.
Replies: 25
Views: 4783

Re: Do stocks outperform Treasury Bills? Almost never.

JoMoney wrote:
Sun May 06, 2018 8:11 am
columbia wrote:
Sun May 06, 2018 8:06 am
...
Looking at Morningstar, its returns are pretty indistinguishable from the SP500 since 1970.
You can go back even further than that.

Hah! And has definitely underperformed since then.
by columbia
Sun May 06, 2018 8:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do stocks outperform Treasury Bills? Almost never.
Replies: 25
Views: 4783

Re: Do stocks outperform Treasury Bills? Almost never.

If you dollar weight the shares, you would get a different answer. Most microcap stocks don't do well. Most megacap stocks do. As evident by the Dow 30, and other assortments of large cap stocks... I think the LEXCX fund is an interesting case in this https://individuals.voya.com/product/mutual-fun...
by columbia
Thu May 03, 2018 1:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing in the World - Part 2 and 3 [Financial Page blog article]
Replies: 27
Views: 3277

Re: Investing in the World - Part 2 and 3 [Financial Page blog article]

It is interesting the US's low volatility (second lowest, after Canada) and 4th lowest drawdown (after Canada, France(!?), and Switzerland) translates to very pedestrian retirement income streams (9th place out of 16, so not even in the top 50%). It feels like more evidence suggesting that volatili...
by columbia
Wed May 02, 2018 10:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stock Buybacks as a Global Trend?
Replies: 39
Views: 2866

Re: Stock Buybacks as a Global Trend?

Presumably relevant:

Apple Says It Will Buy Back $100 Billion in Stock
https://mobile.nytimes.com/2018/05/01/t ... nings.html
by columbia
Tue May 01, 2018 6:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dilbert Creator: If everyone indexed...
Replies: 39
Views: 6910

Re: Dilbert Creator: If everyone indexed...

Why is the gentleman a source of information, such that anyone would care what he has to say (on investing)?
by columbia
Mon Apr 30, 2018 3:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Real Estate Isn’t Special
Replies: 44
Views: 5969

Re: Larry Swedroe: Real Estate Isn’t Special

I think the only special accumulation-stage (non cash) investment is TIAA Traditional. If folks have access to one of the flavors, they should probably use that and stop chasing the dragon with other far less tangible and reliable alternative investment options.
by columbia
Wed Apr 25, 2018 10:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jeremy Siegel's 1/3, 1/3, 1/3 diversification
Replies: 28
Views: 5005

Re: Jeremy Siegel's 1/3, 1/3, 1/3 diversification

Higher risk should = Higher returns (eventually) IF you can handle the consequences of the risk part AND can wait long enough for eventually to happen. Naive question: Is there evidence that investing in “higher risk” equities (as opposed to say the SP500), in fact led to higher returns over the lo...
by columbia
Wed Apr 25, 2018 8:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Balanced Funds Capturing Large Percentage of Stock Market Return
Replies: 15
Views: 1666

Re: Balanced Funds Capturing Large Percentage of Stock Market Return

My takeaway is that one can garner pretty respectable returns with < 70% equities and that a low cost balanced fund can be a pretty simple path to that result; there certainly are many, many worse strategies out there.
by columbia
Tue Apr 24, 2018 6:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why are rising Bond Yields bad?
Replies: 37
Views: 4390

Re: Why are rising Bond Yields bad?

How (if at all) do rising interest rates tend to affect higher dividend paying stocks, such as those found in Wellesley and Wellington?
by columbia
Sun Apr 22, 2018 9:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Limits of Modern Portfolio Theory - Do Investors Understand What They Own?
Replies: 16
Views: 2031

Re: The Limits of Modern Portfolio Theory - Do Investors Understand What They Own?

I just looked over the holdings of the Vanguard small cap value and international small funds: I can guarantee you that I have no idea what those companies do. :)
by columbia
Thu Apr 19, 2018 1:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The World in 2050 — An Emergent Middle Class
Replies: 35
Views: 4065

Re: The World in 2050 — An Emergent Middle Class

Should we expect an ETF, which screens on expected population growth (based on rolling 30 year estimates)? :)
by columbia
Wed Apr 18, 2018 6:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The World in 2050 — An Emergent Middle Class
Replies: 35
Views: 4065

Re: The World in 2050 — An Emergent Middle Class

As an investor, these dynamics would only seem to matter if there were a high correlation between GDP growth and market returns. I don’t *think* that is the case.
by columbia
Tue Apr 17, 2018 9:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The World in 2050 — GDP & Stock Market Capitalization
Replies: 70
Views: 5946

Re: The World in 2050 — GDP & Stock Market Capitalization

jebmke wrote:
Sun Apr 15, 2018 2:19 pm
I will be either 97 or dead.
82 or dead, here.

A global equity portfolio is probably best reserved for the 40 (currently) and under crowd, imo.
by columbia
Sun Apr 15, 2018 6:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Pacer Wealthshield ETF
Replies: 11
Views: 711

Re: Pacer Wealthshield ETF

WealthShield Strategy Evaluates the market for risk Uses rules to determine whether to invest in equity sectors or fixed income. Reevaluates regularly to ensure investments are still appropriate for market conditions. It appears to be a pretty sophisticated investment instrument and undoubtedly wor...
by columbia
Fri Apr 13, 2018 6:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why are expected returns so much lower than historical returns?
Replies: 153
Views: 8934

Re: Why are expected returns so much lower than historical returns?

The inevitable conclusion (by some) to this type of discussion is that valuation matters and that international funds are the answer (in response). In that I can’t predict future, perhaps that will be the true. It just seems odd that many are confident that international returns will be higher in th...
by columbia
Thu Apr 12, 2018 6:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is HSA right for me.
Replies: 6
Views: 826

Re: Is HSA right for me.

I set up an account this week with the company, which Vanguard links to. Their website is pretty clunky, but it only took about 10 minutes. The companion debit card appears to only work with the cash portion of your holdings. You’d think that it would at least default to Vanguard federal money marke...
by columbia
Wed Apr 11, 2018 8:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Introduction to Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS)
Replies: 53
Views: 4942

Re: Introduction to Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS)

It would be nice to see Vanguard offer an easier exposure to TIPS, for bond holders who don’t wish to juggle multiple bond funds and offer it in short and intermediate: 1/3 TIPS 1/3 Treasuries 1/3 Corporate That covers the various concerns pretty well. As I use TIAA Traditional, I don’t own a bond f...
by columbia
Sun Apr 08, 2018 1:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 96 percent of stocks are no better then TBills
Replies: 29
Views: 6887

Re: 96 percent of stocks are no better then TBills

Quick comparison of VT against two other global ETFs: IOO (100 stocks) DGT (150 stocks) https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&timePeriod=4&startYear=1985&firstMonth=1&endYear=2018&lastMonth=12&endDate=04%2F07%2F2018&initialAmount=10000&annualOperation=0&annualAdjustment=0&inflat...
by columbia
Sat Apr 07, 2018 9:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Just how safe is a short-term corporate bond fund?
Replies: 53
Views: 6205

Re: Just how safe is a short-term corporate bond fund?

Cobbling together the two...it's not clear that TBM is a safe haven compared to a ST corporate index fund.
Maybe it is and I just need to see the right data series?
by columbia
Sat Apr 07, 2018 9:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Just how safe is a short-term corporate bond fund?
Replies: 53
Views: 6205

Re: Just how safe is a short-term corporate bond fund?

The Vanguard fund in this class only goes back to 2010. I would be quite interested in seeing much longer historical data for short term corporate bonds. If one compares TBM to short term invest. grade bonds since 1987: https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-asset-class-allocation?s=y&mode=2&s...
by columbia
Fri Apr 06, 2018 11:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle on stock turbulence: ‘never seen a market this volatile to this extent in my career’
Replies: 88
Views: 12666

Re: Bogle on stock turbulence: ‘never seen a market this volatile to this extent in my career’

As I buy every week, I haven’t noticed much of a drop in total portfolio value - 2018 purchases have just been cheaper. 8-)
by columbia
Wed Apr 04, 2018 5:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Just how safe is a short-term corporate bond fund?
Replies: 53
Views: 6205

Re: Just how safe is a short-term corporate bond fund?

It's the classic case of incurring higher risk for the expectation of higher reward, in a highly efficient market. This is a great quote. The decision is based on if whether the (possible) higher return is worth the higher risk. Why is the higher return desired or needed? Is the higher risk worth i...
by columbia
Tue Apr 03, 2018 6:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Where Nobel Economists Put Their Money
Replies: 19
Views: 4561

Re: Where Nobel Economists Put Their Money

Whether you are an avowed Boglehead or not, John Bogle's recommendation to "Don't just do something; stand there!" holds for Nobel economists and mere ordinary PhD academics (of which I am one). As pointed out above, professors usually have great job stability, at least after they receive tenure. T...
by columbia
Sun Apr 01, 2018 8:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The "American companies I invest in already have international exposure" argument --- valid or not?
Replies: 139
Views: 10606

Re: The "American companies I invest in already have international exposure" argument --- valid or not?

nedsaid wrote:
Sun Apr 01, 2018 1:44 pm
Oh boy, next thing you know there will be a revenue weighted index fund that weights by revenue by country. I am sure there is somebody in Academia working hard on this right now and soon we will see a Larry Swedroe article on this. :wink: Revenue tilting.

:P
by columbia
Sat Mar 31, 2018 1:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is anyone putting money aside into Gold?
Replies: 148
Views: 14852

Re: Is anyone putting money aside into Gold?

If I were looking for a small measure of *potential* portfolio insurance, I’d probably buy something like this (VXX): http://etfdb.com/etf/VXX/ In fact, I own 10 shares and they sure didn’t cost me much. Whether they will react as I *think* they will at the time of a black swan crash remains to be s...
by columbia
Sat Mar 31, 2018 9:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 401k vs Traditional IRA
Replies: 34
Views: 1644

Re: 401k vs Traditional IRA

Max 401k + max Roth

No one knows where taxes will be in the future.
by columbia
Sat Mar 31, 2018 8:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The "American companies I invest in already have international exposure" argument --- valid or not?
Replies: 139
Views: 10606

Re: The "American companies I invest in already have international exposure" argument --- valid or not?

One rough observation: over the period when Total Stock and Total International have both existed, their monthly correlation has been 0.85%. I think it's reasonable to interpret this as meaning that about 85% of your Total International allocation is not actually doing anything different from your ...
by columbia
Wed Mar 28, 2018 7:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should I be worried about the S&P Index fund ?
Replies: 51
Views: 5871

Re: Should I be worried about the S&P Index fund ?

I don’t think Amazon should be classified as a “tech” company. It’s a retail outlet, with convenient terms for the customer physically acquiring the purchase.
by columbia
Sun Mar 25, 2018 3:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rationale for a 30% ex-US equity allocation
Replies: 30
Views: 3444

Re: Rationale for a 30% ex-US equity allocation

I really don’t understand the aversion to true global market cap weighting on this forum. The US only represents a quarter of global GDP, and therefore we’re already over-represented in market cap indexes at 50%. If nothing else, at least consider that international has lagged US for years now; kee...
by columbia
Wed Mar 21, 2018 1:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Personal Advisory opinion on Vanguard Total World Index Fund
Replies: 11
Views: 1718

Re: Vanguard Personal Advisory opinion on Vanguard Total World Index Fund

Total world stock index will not be as tax efficient some years. Int'l holdings have to be at least 50% of the holdings to qualify for the foreign tax credit. The decision should be whether you want 40% in int'l or a market cap weight. If you want the latter, setting it up with the two index funds ...
by columbia
Sun Mar 18, 2018 11:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIAA traditional question
Replies: 14
Views: 1079

Re: TIAA traditional question

TIAA appears to be giving high priority to annuitants vs certain other things, like IRA investors. Priority appears to be not DECREASING those additional amounts, to extent possible. But in the five years if been receiving lifetime income from my annuitized Trad, I've seen three modest increases in...
by columbia
Sat Mar 17, 2018 3:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard New Factor Funds Portfolio Statistics
Replies: 152
Views: 16376

Re: Vanguard New Factor Funds Portfolio Statistics

VFVA seems to out do TISM, for folks looking for cheaper options aside from TSM. I wouldn't consider VFVA or any U.S. value or factor fund an alternative to Total International or any international fund. I like diversifying away from pure U.S. beta (i.e. Total Market), but I consider value, size, e...