Search found 1552 matches

by columbia
Tue Jun 18, 2019 11:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should I abandon the Total International Stock Index Fund for greener pastures?
Replies: 92
Views: 6532

Re: Should I abandon the Total International Stock Index Fund for greener pastures?

Is it possible to have too much diversification in a mutual fund? This is just an anecdotal observation, but it seems like the Total International Stock index never seems to fire on all cylinders because if one area of the index is doing well, there's another area of the index that does poorly, whi...
by columbia
Tue Jun 18, 2019 9:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should I abandon the Total International Stock Index Fund for greener pastures?
Replies: 92
Views: 6532

Re: Should I abandon the Total International Stock Index Fund for greener pastures?

At the level of each individuals choices age and asset allocation also matters. - If you are 75 with a 30% equity and 70% bond portfolio -- fine go all US. - If you are 25 put your money into education and getting pay raises so you can save more later. - If you have a six figure pension or $10M do ...
by columbia
Tue Jun 18, 2019 7:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Has The Value Trade Become Overcrowded.
Replies: 63
Views: 4164

Re: Larry Swedroe: Has The Value Trade Become Overcrowded.

Well, the poster has an active value tilt.
by columbia
Tue Jun 18, 2019 5:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Bad was 2008, really?
Replies: 310
Views: 35108

Re: How Bad was 2008, really?

Bad enough that I’m always perplexed by people hoping for a crash (to buy cheaper stock).

Those people don’t have retired parents/grandparents? They believe they’re immune from losing their own job, no matter what happens?
by columbia
Mon Jun 17, 2019 8:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast hits milestone
Replies: 15
Views: 1152

Re: "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast hits milestone

Presumably this includes streams through various outlets. (I never technically download anything through the iPhone podcast app.)
by columbia
Mon Jun 17, 2019 8:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Has The Value Trade Become Overcrowded.
Replies: 63
Views: 4164

Re: Larry Swedroe: Has The Value Trade Become Overcrowded.

I know that the market is not efficient all the time. Depends what it is meant by efficient. Does it mean that public information is quickly incorporated into market prices? Or does it mean that no one can make money betting against the market? Does efficiency mean that current market prices are ex...
by columbia
Mon Jun 17, 2019 5:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should I abandon the Total International Stock Index Fund for greener pastures?
Replies: 92
Views: 6532

Re: Should I abandon the Total International Stock Index Fund for greener pastures?

it's called recency bias. People keep repeating this, but it's not just a recent thing. Look back decades, or even a century. Sure, there were periods of out-performance here and there, but over the long run it has under-performed. Draw whatever conclusion you may, but it's not just a recent phenom...
by columbia
Mon Jun 17, 2019 1:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should I abandon the Total International Stock Index Fund for greener pastures?
Replies: 92
Views: 6532

Re: Should I abandon the Total International Stock Index Fund for greener pastures?

Had your reason for investing outside the US changed since you first did so?
by columbia
Sun Jun 16, 2019 8:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Case Against ETFs
Replies: 193
Views: 8297

Re: The Case Against ETFs

If you non transparent funds AND ETFs, you can now do that:

https://www.etf.com/sections/etf-strate ... nopaging=1
by columbia
Sat Jun 15, 2019 10:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: good example US vs UK returns
Replies: 20
Views: 1604

Re: good example US vs UK returns

Knowing historical evidence helps to avoid the biases such as home country and recency. Just to bolster Larry's historical comparison of the US and UK markets with a good chart! (discussed in more detail in this thread ). Going back to 1910, the US market outperformed in the post World War I & II p...
by columbia
Sat Jun 15, 2019 6:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Has The Value Trade Become Overcrowded.
Replies: 63
Views: 4164

Re: Larry Swedroe: Has The Value Trade Become Overcrowded.

I’m a pessimist, so the next crash is always 5 minutes away. Having said, prices do not resemble 1999:
https://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-pe-ratio
by columbia
Fri Jun 14, 2019 5:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wellington VS Balanced Index
Replies: 36
Views: 5955

Re: Wellington VS Balanced Index

Owning Wellington or Balanced Index or the VG 60/40 life strategy fund are on my list, should any nieces or nephews ever ask for a recommendation.
by columbia
Fri Jun 14, 2019 3:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wellington VS Balanced Index
Replies: 36
Views: 5955

Re: Wellington VS Balanced Index

Wellington has formed like an 80/20 mix of S&P 500 and total bond (since that index had existed).
by columbia
Thu Jun 13, 2019 5:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Case Against ETFs
Replies: 193
Views: 8297

Re: The Case Against ETFs

Your #2 is an illusion and is actually worse for mutual funds. Mutual funds have more cash drag than ETFs. The cash is still sitting in a bank account, just on the other side of the fund. Mutual funds are more inefficient in this regard. Not if you’re buying Vanguard mutual funds, which have a comp...
by columbia
Thu Jun 13, 2019 5:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is wrong with AQR?
Replies: 128
Views: 7170

Re: What is wrong with AQR?

The question to me is: who cares? There are reviews for psychics on Yelp. You and I may laugh at that, since there's no point in differentiating between a good psychic and a bad one, but still -- who wants to go to a bad psychic? There's no possible upside of that. Some psychics, I'm sure, are able...
by columbia
Thu Jun 13, 2019 5:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is wrong with AQR?
Replies: 128
Views: 7170

Re: What is wrong with AQR?

How much of the goal is low/no correlation? I can get that with cash.
by columbia
Wed Jun 12, 2019 6:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 3-fund portfolio: Home (Domestic) Bias?
Replies: 5
Views: 648

Re: 3-fund portfolio: Home (Domestic) Bias?

The US is one of the few places in the world, where folks are lucky enough to be able to get away with it. I own some international, but ex-US will have to more than *double* the returns of US in the next 23 years (total time I’ve been investing) for international to pull even for a 50/50 portfolio ...
by columbia
Wed Jun 12, 2019 11:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Karsten (Early Retirement Now) Pens a Challenge to Merriman and the Small/Value Premium
Replies: 44
Views: 3821

Re: Karsten (Early Retirement Now) Pens a Serious Challenge to Merriman and the Small/Value Premium

Merriman’s portfolio is equal weighted on value for small AND large cap, so focusing on just the small is curious. ie The S&P 500 beat his portfolio because of large cap growth.
by columbia
Wed Jun 12, 2019 8:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VFMF (Vanguard Multifactor) == Closet Value Index Fund
Replies: 20
Views: 1268

Re: VFMF (Vanguard Multifactor) == Closet Value Index Fund

“Rules based” appears to be the foundation of Wellington and Wellesley. But an investor will never really know what the rules are. It’s certainly better than turning those funds over to the new hot hand, who will eventually run out of luck.
by columbia
Tue Jun 11, 2019 7:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Best Vanguard value factor exposure?
Replies: 42
Views: 2647

Re: Best Vanguard value factor exposure?

The thread title is about value factor, not small value factor (which doesn’t interest me).

Is there a large cap value factor ETF out there, other than VLUE (which hasn’t managed to keep up with the large cap value index, ie VTV)?
by columbia
Tue Jun 11, 2019 4:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone buying Beyond Meat stock?
Replies: 35
Views: 2773

Re: Anyone buying Beyond Meat stock?

The reason this concept will really take off in the long run is down to: it’s already a more environmentally sound method, and will eventually be a more cost effective way, to deliver protein.

Whether it’s healthier for humans is a side issue; it’s definitely healthier for cows. ;)
by columbia
Tue Jun 11, 2019 2:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The logical fallacy behind "Bonds Are For Safety"
Replies: 248
Views: 15361

Re: The logical fallacy behind "Bonds Are For Safety"

One way to include both time frames in one's Investment portfolio is to not use TBM as their only FI asset. Sorry for all you three funders but while easy it ignores the short term concerns. Just break that TBM into it's components and both short and lifetime concerns can be addressed. This is only...
by columbia
Tue Jun 11, 2019 12:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone buying Beyond Meat stock?
Replies: 35
Views: 2773

Re: Anyone buying Beyond Meat stock?

No, I did try the "meat" from Carls Jr., not sure if it's the impossible or beyond meat, but I wouldn't have it again. I'd have a real one for the price I paid (I think it was $8 for that special burger). It didn't seem worth the price vs the veggie burger we tried from Trader Joes. If it's your th...
by columbia
Tue Jun 11, 2019 12:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone buying Beyond Meat stock?
Replies: 35
Views: 2773

Re: Anyone buying Beyond Meat stock?

This won’t be a small market in the future.

I have no idea if Beyond will last or be profitable, however. I do know that their products are pretty decent. :)
by columbia
Mon Jun 10, 2019 9:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone Pulled the Trigger on Global Wellington/Wellesley?
Replies: 43
Views: 11417

Re: Anyone Pulled the Trigger on Global Wellington/Wellesley?

One factor that went heavily into my decision was researching this statement: “Active managers can take advantage of inefficiencies inherent to international markets. Over the last 23 years, the average actively managed large-cap international fund has beaten index funds by an average of almost 1% ...
by columbia
Mon Jun 10, 2019 7:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: The Re-Death of Value, or Deja Vu All Over
Replies: 61
Views: 5766

Re: Larry Swedroe: The Re-Death of Value, or Deja Vu All Over

That’s curious.

I think the real answer is: not easily.
by columbia
Mon Jun 10, 2019 6:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Insights From a Long Call With Vanguard Reps Today
Replies: 74
Views: 11982

Re: Insights From a Long Call With Vanguard Reps Today

I guess they view the mutual fund holders are free riders.

I’m ok paying an extra 0.01% (or whatever the difference is) for the automatic investing convenience.
by columbia
Sun Jun 09, 2019 6:48 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: VTSAX or VTWAX over the next 35 years?
Replies: 173
Views: 17614

Re: VTSAX or VTWAX over the next 35 years?

In my mind, the best argument for Total World over Total US is the tendency of markets to revert to the mean. We've been living in the echoes of World War II for the last seventy years—a war that left America as the only industrialized country standing, allowing us to write the rules of the global ...
by columbia
Sun Jun 09, 2019 6:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: The Re-Death of Value, or Deja Vu All Over
Replies: 61
Views: 5766

Re: Larry Swedroe: The Re-Death of Value, or Deja Vu All Over

gmaynardkrebs wrote:
Sun Jun 09, 2019 6:22 pm
nedsaid wrote:
Thu Jun 06, 2019 3:28 pm
I am deliberately underweighting the FAANG stocks.
I'm with you, but don't how. How would one do that (basically, a broad large-cap less FANG) using Vanguard or ETFs available through Vanguard?
S&P 500 EX-TECHNOLOGY ETF
https://www.proshares.com/funds/spxt_index.html
by columbia
Sun Jun 09, 2019 5:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond Performance When Stocks Lose Value, 1928-2018
Replies: 7
Views: 1193

Re: Bond Performance When Stocks Lose Value, 1928-2018

Long bonds get will get killed under high inflation. Holding long bonds under stagflation is the kiss of death for your overall portfolio. Oh, if only, if only there were some kind of bond that didn't get killed under high inflation. Imagine something that was sort of like a Treasury bond, but whos...
by columbia
Sun Jun 09, 2019 4:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond Performance When Stocks Lose Value, 1928-2018
Replies: 7
Views: 1193

Re: Bond Performance When Stocks Lose Value, 1928-2018

Long bonds get will get killed under high inflation.

Holding long bonds under stagflation is the kiss of death for your overall portfolio.
by columbia
Sun Jun 09, 2019 4:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: indexers buying negative interest bonds
Replies: 26
Views: 2465

Re: indexers buying negative interest bonds

I guess you would buy them, if you think the rates will go even further into negative territory in the future.

Although maybe you should just buy equities with that money instead. :?:
by columbia
Sun Jun 09, 2019 4:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: indexers buying negative interest bonds
Replies: 26
Views: 2465

Re: indexers buying negative interest bonds

I guess you would buy them, if you think the rates will go even further into negative territory in the future.

Although maybe you should just buy equities with that money instead. :?:
by columbia
Sun Jun 09, 2019 10:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Insights From a Long Call With Vanguard Reps Today
Replies: 74
Views: 11982

Re: Insights From a Long Call With Vanguard Reps Today

But Vanguard has the Bogleheads. I don't think Fidelity has anything equivalent. Perhaps there are Fidoheads out there, of which I'm unaware. Well, I am a Fidelity customer but I wouldn't call myself a Fidohead. I would say there are a lot of people here with Fidelity accounts and who like Fidelity...
by columbia
Sun Jun 09, 2019 9:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone Pulled the Trigger on Global Wellington/Wellesley?
Replies: 43
Views: 11417

Re: Anyone Pulled the Trigger on Global Wellington/Wellesley?

I have to admit, I did a fair amount of research before pulling the trigger on Global Wellington (see my post above). Personally, about 1/3 of my overall stock investments are international. The same bond managers that manage Wellington and Wellesley manage Global Wellington. The stock manager for ...
by columbia
Sat Jun 08, 2019 7:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The logical fallacy behind "Bonds Are For Safety"
Replies: 248
Views: 15361

Re: The logical fallacy behind "Bonds Are For Safety"

Some of these recent threads talking about how well long-term bonds backtest are a little amusing to those of who who have been around here for 10+ years. It used to the be that the best backtesting showed that short-term bonds were advantageous over long-term bonds both from a standalone and from ...
by columbia
Sat Jun 08, 2019 8:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: US stocks still look better than anywhere else
Replies: 100
Views: 7551

Re: US stocks still look better than anywhere else

The problem with these lines of argument is that they tend to degenerate into quasi-sociological, highly anecdotal, comments about the superiority of US business practices and culture. OR They make an explicit link between US GDP growth and the performance of stock markets - when we know the actual...
by columbia
Sat Jun 08, 2019 6:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: US stocks still look better than anywhere else
Replies: 100
Views: 7551

Re: US stocks still look better than anywhere else

Factually speaking the US should outperform all the developed world economies over the coming decades. The US Will have working age population grow about 0.5% annually through 2050. Japan, China, and EU will see theirs plunge anywhere from 1% to 2% annually. Those economies will have trouble stavin...
by columbia
Fri Jun 07, 2019 7:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The logical fallacy behind "Bonds Are For Safety"
Replies: 248
Views: 15361

Re: The logical fallacy behind "Bonds Are For Safety"

In fact, in the most common use I've seen of "bonds are for safety" has been to remind people not to chase yield. But they do chase yield. Why do people buy TBM instead of intermediate term Treasuries? To chase yield. Why do people hold nominal bonds instead of TIPS? Because they're chasing yield. ...
by columbia
Fri Jun 07, 2019 4:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Value stocks are cheaper than they've ever been -- and could get cheaper
Replies: 13
Views: 2052

Re: Value stocks are cheaper than they've ever been -- and could get cheaper

US value (VTV) is more is more closely priced to ex-US, than it is to the SP500. I can’t say that is actionable, however. Maybe someone could? :?:
by columbia
Thu Jun 06, 2019 6:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: US stocks still look better than anywhere else
Replies: 100
Views: 7551

Re: US stocks still look better than anywhere else

True, and the talent flows to Silicon Valley from all over the world, which is a particularly amazing self-perpetuating success story of immigration. No other country has such a powerful talent magnet. The US in general has been the beneficiary of a global brain drain to a degree that no other coun...
by columbia
Thu Jun 06, 2019 5:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: US stocks still look better than anywhere else
Replies: 100
Views: 7551

Re: US stocks still look better than anywhere else

Why has the US outperformed International specifically? One word: Tech. or FANG Let's look at one of the major factors in the FANG growth and outperformance story: Silicon Valley. Silicon Valley: high desirability weatherwise, lots of capital flowing, capable of commanding top tier engineering tale...
by columbia
Thu Jun 06, 2019 6:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Large cap tilt?
Replies: 9
Views: 570

Re: Large cap tilt?

Total stock market has barely surpassed large cap since 1972: https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-asset-class-allocation?s=y&mode=1&timePeriod=4&startYear=1972&firstMonth=1&endYear=2019&lastMonth=12&calendarAligned=true&initialAmount=10000&annualOperation=0&annualAdjustment=0&inflationAdjus...
by columbia
Wed Jun 05, 2019 7:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: US stocks still look better than anywhere else
Replies: 100
Views: 7551

Re: US stocks still look better than anywhere else

It’s no mystery as to where the innovation has occurred. The market reflects that.
by columbia
Wed Jun 05, 2019 5:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: US stocks still look better than anywhere else
Replies: 100
Views: 7551

Re: US stocks still look better than anywhere else

Here we go on the U.S./ex. U.S. merry-go-round again. "Bogle was right! Ex-U.S. has gone nowhere for decades! The U.S. is the cat's meow!" etc. etc. "Bogle was just lucky. The EMH says that everything is priced in. You just believe in the ridiculous American 'exceptionalism' argument and past perfo...
by columbia
Wed Jun 05, 2019 5:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Diversification Regret Index
Replies: 131
Views: 16592

Re: Diversification Regret Index

Alternately, they’re not worried about how other people choose to invest. If that were REALLY true they probably wouldn't be commenting in an online investment forum, I suspect. It’s because folks here are interested in thinking through how they should make choices for themselves. Not everyone is a...
by columbia
Wed Jun 05, 2019 7:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Diversification Regret Index
Replies: 131
Views: 16592

Re: Diversification Regret Index

Alternately, they’re not worried about how other people choose to invest.
by columbia
Wed Jun 05, 2019 6:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What Experts Say About "Simplicity"
Replies: 24
Views: 36385

Re: What Experts Say About "Simplicity"

One could do a lot worse than spending 30-40 years putting half in bonds, half in stocks and rebalancing every few years.