Search found 1250 matches

by columbia
Sun Jan 20, 2019 8:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International Allocation and Siamond's "Investing in the World" Series
Replies: 13
Views: 740

Re: International Allocation and Siamond's "Investing in the World" Series

That article is fantastic. Was actually referring back to it again today. One thing that I really wish was covered in the article was a home-currency-hedged global equities allocation. Say 25% local stocks 37.5% all-world 37.5% all-world home-currency-hedged Or 1/3 each if it makes it simpler. So t...
by columbia
Sun Jan 20, 2019 8:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What active management stock funds would you own?
Replies: 70
Views: 3538

Re: What active management stock funds would you own?

Looking at the basic descriptions of the two Windsor funds, what is the purported difference in their investment strategies? They both appear to be LCV approaches.
by columbia
Sat Jan 19, 2019 5:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why don't Standard and Poor come up with their own index funds?
Replies: 4
Views: 350

Re: Why don't Standard and Poor come up with their own index funds?

Based on my personal (work) experience of dealing with one of S&P’s subsidiary information products (think borderline incompetent service), I definitely wouldn’t entrust the parent company to manage my money. 😀
by columbia
Sat Jan 19, 2019 10:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What active management stock funds would you own?
Replies: 70
Views: 3538

Re: What active management stock funds would you own?

VHGEX, Vanguard Global Equity Fund, solely because its the only world stock fund available in the 403b. if the passive fund were there id use it instead. This has outperformed VT for the life of the latter. No way to predict the future, but I don’t think you should lose too much sleep over being li...
by columbia
Thu Jan 17, 2019 10:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle "5% Gold"
Replies: 63
Views: 5786

Re: Bogle "5% Gold"

It’s an insurance policy, which shouldnt be expected to keep up with inflation during your lifetime.

My sense is that some presume the second part isn’t true. Shrug.
by columbia
Thu Jan 17, 2019 7:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does Microcap add diversification to Total Stock Market Index fund?
Replies: 20
Views: 1441

Re: Does Microcap add diversification to Total Stock Market Index fund?

The real question would seem to be:

Would adding micro caps lead to a more positive outcome?

Looking at the essentially non-existent difference between owing a S&P 500 fund and owning a total stock market fund, I think we know the answer.
by columbia
Wed Jan 16, 2019 6:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: John Bogle has died at age 89
Replies: 839
Views: 42602

Re: John Bogle is dead at 89

My father started investing with Vanguard in 1975 and was able to send 3 of us to college, by getting a “fair shake” from the markets.

RIP
by columbia
Wed Jan 16, 2019 10:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Further diversifying the 60/40 portfoilio?
Replies: 29
Views: 3261

Re: Further diversifying the 60/40 portfoilio?

Hi Everyone, Thanks to this group I have had the luck to learn the science and art of passive investing and have been using the 60/40 portfolio for a while (Vanguard Total Stock + Total Bond Index Funds). However, two things (**) prompted me to think about further diversifying the current asset all...
by columbia
Wed Jan 16, 2019 7:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Real value of NYC real estate, 1899-1999.
Replies: 50
Views: 4216

Re: Real value of NYC real estate, 1899-1999.

One advantage to renting us that it’s a lot easier to move to a cheaper domicile than to sell your house, if more month to month cash is needed.

Owning a house isn’t as poor as an investment than buying a new car, but I don’t consider it to be a slam dunk good one.
by columbia
Wed Jan 16, 2019 7:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When would you stop being a Boglehead?
Replies: 95
Views: 7302

Re: When would you stop being a Boglehead?

One can just by a balanced/target date fund and achieve the hypothetical goal expressed in the original post.
by columbia
Tue Jan 15, 2019 10:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "College Endowments Badly Trail The Market"
Replies: 18
Views: 1935

Re: "College Endowments Badly Trail The Market"

Like with state pension plan managers, they can’t make big bucks (and also ensure friends in the the financial services industry get a hefty cut), if they simply put it all in VBIAX. Columbia may be on to something. Take a look at the paper . They regress the returns against distance to major finan...
by columbia
Tue Jan 15, 2019 10:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Further diversifying the 60/40 portfoilio?
Replies: 29
Views: 3261

Re: Further diversifying the 60/40 portfoilio?

Hi Everyone, Thanks to this group I have had the luck to learn the science and art of passive investing and have been using the 60/40 portfolio for a while (Vanguard Total Stock + Total Bond Index Funds). However, two things (**) prompted me to think about further diversifying the current asset all...
by columbia
Tue Jan 15, 2019 9:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "College Endowments Badly Trail The Market"
Replies: 18
Views: 1935

Re: "College Endowments Badly Trail The Market"

Like with state pension plan managers, they can’t make big bucks (and also ensure friends in the the financial services industry get a hefty cut), if they simply put it all in VBIAX.
by columbia
Tue Jan 15, 2019 6:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Opinion: Half of investment-grade bonds are only one step away from junk status
Replies: 23
Views: 2409

Re: Opinion: Half of investment-grade bonds are only one step away from junk status

Logically, it seems that the “problem” (and I think that’s too strong of a word) with corporate bond funds isn’t defaults, but rather that people panic sell them when equities crash.

The end might result (lower price) is the same, but those are very different reasons.
by columbia
Mon Jan 14, 2019 3:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: GMO's 7‐Year Asset Class Real Return Forecasts
Replies: 29
Views: 1828

Re: GMO's 7‐Year Asset Class Real Return Forecasts

Even if these are accurate, expected returns will be higher once the markets crash. ;)
by columbia
Mon Jan 14, 2019 12:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why No Mid-Cap TIAA Index Fund?
Replies: 6
Views: 415

Re: Why No Mid-Cap TIAA Index Fund?

Any rationale for TIAA to not offer index fund(s) that more directly complement or cover market capitalization? Index funds are not their main business. The TIAA General Account, which backs the Traditional annuity, has $300 billion in assets. The CREF Stock account has $127 billion in NAV. The TIA...
by columbia
Sun Jan 13, 2019 7:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emerging markets cannot be fairly valued and investors are better off elsewhere: Change my mind :)
Replies: 128
Views: 7400

Re: Emerging markets cannot be fairly valued and investors are better off elsewhere: Change my mind :)

Here's what I honestly believe. (I assume that you are talking about the choice of holding emerging markets at cap weight, or excluding them; not overweighting them or shorting them or anything bold like that). 1) I don't believe it can make much difference, for reasons I explained above. If emergi...
by columbia
Sat Jan 12, 2019 3:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Vanguard to stop accepting purchases in Leveraged or Inverse mutual funds]
Replies: 145
Views: 8397

Re: [Vanguard to stop accepting purchases in Leveraged or Inverse mutual funds]

If my local bakery started to use margarine instead of butter, I’d go to a different bakery.

VG is clearly not worried about customers exercising their right to go elsewhere, as a result of this move.
by columbia
Sat Jan 12, 2019 3:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Who has the highest allocation to international stocks?
Replies: 65
Views: 5779

Re: Who has the highest allocation to international stocks?

One potential reason for VG to use a 60/40 in target date and life strategy funds (instead of VT) is a fairly cynical one (on my part):

That would cut into the AUM of the TSM classes and that might not be good PR.
by columbia
Fri Jan 11, 2019 9:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Low-volatility ETFs have beaten S&P indexes while cutting risk
Replies: 12
Views: 1230

Re: Low-volatility ETFs have beaten S&P indexes while cutting risk

gtwhitegold wrote:
Fri Jan 11, 2019 6:20 pm
columbia wrote:
Fri Jan 11, 2019 6:11 pm
USMV holds almost 24% LT treasuries.

I do not consider this ETF to be “similar” to the S&P 500.
Where do you see that? Top 10 holdings for USMV are all equities on Morningstar.com.

Per Portfolio Visualizer.
Given your response, I presume that their metric data is quite incorrect; odd.
by columbia
Fri Jan 11, 2019 6:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Low-volatility ETFs have beaten S&P indexes while cutting risk
Replies: 12
Views: 1230

Re: Low-volatility ETFs have beaten S&P indexes while cutting risk

USMV holds almost 24% LT treasuries.

I do not consider this ETF to be “similar” to the S&P 500.
by columbia
Thu Jan 10, 2019 9:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard explains the increase in ex-us allocation
Replies: 34
Views: 4586

Re: Vanguard explains the increase in ex-us allocation

I’d like to know THEIR personal allocation to international.
by columbia
Thu Jan 10, 2019 7:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Vanguard to stop accepting purchases in Leveraged or Inverse mutual funds]
Replies: 145
Views: 8397

Re: [Vanguard to stop accepting purchases in Leveraged or Inverse mutual funds]

I have not, do not and will never own a leveraged ETF/N: One has been able to achieve almost identical returns with 10% 3x SP500, 10% 3x 20 year treasuries, 80% bonds as a standard 50/50 portfolio. The stock market can (and has) drop by 90%. One of those portfolios would see a 10% decline of overall...
by columbia
Thu Jan 10, 2019 5:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is your allocation to U.S. and International?
Replies: 220
Views: 14293

Re: What is your allocation to U.S. and International?

Do you also diversify globally in the bond realm (if you invest in bonds)? I hold zero foreign bonds. No one assumed the OP meant foreign bonds. Vanguard holds them in target retirement funds. The OP clearly states "U.S. and International stocks and bonds." The justification for adding foreign bond...
by columbia
Thu Jan 10, 2019 2:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Experts Forecast Long-Term Stock and Bond Returns: 2019 Edition
Replies: 10
Views: 976

Re: Experts Forecast Long-Term Stock and Bond Returns: 2019 Edition

Very little in those forecasts to indicate that 100% of my TIAA account cranking at 4.25% is a bad idea.

After If the markets take a terrible tumble, then we’re talking something different.
by columbia
Thu Jan 10, 2019 9:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AQR Cuts Staff After a Bad Year (39 out of 41 funds down)
Replies: 31
Views: 2623

Re: AQR Cuts Staff After a Bad Year

Performance aside, I wonder how many AQR investors really understood the nature of the investments. Isn't this about what one would expect from this fund over longer time periods? QSPIX in BLUE http://i63.tinypic.com/124hd3k.jpg QSPIX owners would have been better off with Wellesley: https://www.po...
by columbia
Thu Jan 10, 2019 6:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AQR Cuts Staff After a Bad Year (39 out of 41 funds down)
Replies: 31
Views: 2623

Re: AQR Cuts Staff After a Bad Year

Are they questionable at what they do or is what they do just questionable?
by columbia
Wed Jan 09, 2019 6:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: BHers, what is your Roth IRA %?
Replies: 113
Views: 5255

Re: BHers, what is your Roth IRA %?

About 45%.

I believe that anyone expecting to eventually have and invest money from an inherited IRA should have a Roth: never pay another dime of taxes (on the amount you can eventually place in a Roth, after legally required distribution).
by columbia
Wed Jan 09, 2019 3:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International & US CAPE: Research Affiliates, Barclays, StarCapital
Replies: 45
Views: 6502

Re: International & US CAPE: Research Affiliates, Barclays, StarCapital

siamond wrote:
Wed Jan 09, 2019 1:49 pm
The StarCapital CAPE numbers for 31-Dec-18 are now available: https://www.starcapital.de/en/research/ ... valuation/
Interesting disconnect for Japan:

Relatively high CAPE and relatively low PE.
by columbia
Wed Jan 09, 2019 9:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Past result is not an indicator for future performance
Replies: 29
Views: 2033

Re: Past result is not an indicator for future performance

No one would invest in stocks, if they didn’t think that their past performance vs. bonds/cash wasn’t relevant to expected future returns.

All kinds of people predict the future, even if they don’t want to admit it.
by columbia
Wed Jan 09, 2019 7:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is your allocation to U.S. and International?
Replies: 220
Views: 14293

Re: What is your allocation to U.S. and International?

Given the innumerable strategies floated by various investors, it’s interesting that you don’t really see much of what I would call an inverse US vs. international market cap. Currently, that would put one at around 55% ex-US. Whether that would be a sound idea is not something I could assess, but i...
by columbia
Tue Jan 08, 2019 6:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Vanguard to stop accepting purchases in Leveraged or Inverse mutual funds]
Replies: 145
Views: 8397

Re: [Vanguard to stop accepting purchases in Leveraged or Inverse mutual funds]

To add to my earlier post....it is interesting to see what is classified as risky and not risky. For instance, it is widely accepted for a person with a long investing horizon and high risk tolerance to be somewhere between 80-100% equities. While in the accumulation and wealth building phase, it i...
by columbia
Tue Jan 08, 2019 11:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Vanguard to stop accepting purchases in Leveraged or Inverse mutual funds]
Replies: 145
Views: 8397

Re: More Nanny State From Vanguard

I presume that they’ve seen an uptick in purchases of such instruments (especially with accounts being converted to brokerage status). That, however, doesn’t answer why they made them available in the first place.
by columbia
Tue Jan 08, 2019 10:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Vanguard to stop accepting purchases in Leveraged or Inverse mutual funds]
Replies: 145
Views: 8397

Re: More Nanny State From Vanguard

zx14rr wrote:
Tue Jan 08, 2019 10:20 am
Why do you care what others do in managing their investments if it doesn't impact you?
Is that directed at Vanguard? ;)
by columbia
Mon Jan 07, 2019 7:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Improving the Dalio/Robbins All-Seasons Portfolio
Replies: 118
Views: 33704

Re: Improving the Dalio/Robbins All-Seasons Portfolio

The point is, the Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio is remarkably stable and the returns are very acceptable. Pretty darned hard to improve upon. Why it works, I just don't know. Probably part of it is the rebalancing. All my examples were rebalanced once a year. I like some aspects of the Permanent...
by columbia
Sun Jan 06, 2019 9:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Long bonds and duration risk and market efficiency
Replies: 47
Views: 2191

Re: Long bonds and duration risk and market efficiency

As I recall, a 30/30/40 TSM/LTT/TBM has performed in the neighborhood of a standard 50/50 portfolio. For those looking to reduce exposure to the extreme risks of the stock market, LTT certainly have a place in that matrix

EDIT: A third of each, has probably been closer to 50/50.
by columbia
Sun Jan 06, 2019 6:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is your allocation to U.S. and International?
Replies: 220
Views: 14293

Re: What is your allocation to U.S. and International?

One reaction would be to put half (of equities) in total stock and the other in total world (for the sake of simplicity). Sure, but the question is: is 50/50 on the efficient frontier? If not, you can do better for the same level of risk, or do as well with less risk. I’ve seen no evidence that > 3...
by columbia
Sun Jan 06, 2019 5:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is your allocation to U.S. and International?
Replies: 220
Views: 14293

Re: What is your allocation to U.S. and International?

Stormbringer wrote:
Sun Jan 06, 2019 5:38 pm
Shouldn't efficient frontier analysis apply to this decision?
I think it should.

One reaction would be to put half (of equities) in total stock and the other in total world (for the sake of simplicity).
by columbia
Sun Jan 06, 2019 10:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If riskier than US, why doesn't international outperform?
Replies: 245
Views: 15570

Re: If riskier than US, why doesn't international outperform?

If one truly believes that international will have its day, now would be a decent time to pile into it: it’s underperformed cash since 2008.
by columbia
Sun Jan 06, 2019 7:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Who has the highest allocation to international stocks?
Replies: 65
Views: 5779

Re: Who has the highest allocation to international stocks?

I’ve travelled a lot in the Pacific Rim and Europe the past ten years and from a sample size of me, I don’t see growth internationally similar to 8-10 years ago. Being that my perspective is just that, mine and very limited, I’m curious to hear from those with a high exposure where they see growth ...
by columbia
Sat Jan 05, 2019 9:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If riskier than US, why doesn't international outperform?
Replies: 245
Views: 15570

Re: If riskier than US, why doesn't international outperform?

Have you seen a response in this thread, which convinces you that investing in a lower return (since 1970) and higher risk asset class should be of interest to you? Apparently Vanguard's board of directors has failed to look at the last 49 years of international performance, since they make interna...
by columbia
Sat Jan 05, 2019 6:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If riskier than US, why doesn't international outperform?
Replies: 245
Views: 15570

Re: If riskier than US, why doesn't international outperform?

In another thread on international investing, this question was asked but didn't gain any traction (as of yet). I think it's a great question, perhaps the question , and have my theories but would like others' views as well. Mr. Bogle’s views on capitalism, entrepreneurship, work ethic, transparenc...
by columbia
Sat Jan 05, 2019 8:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: investing Uncomfortably
Replies: 88
Views: 7713

Re: Factor funds: Active or Passive?

If factor funds are indeed successful at identifying “winners” based on their specified criteria, aren’t they also in a somewhat constant churn of selling the losers (as they drop out of the...is index the right word)? I'm not sure how you define "winner" in this context, but "identifying winners" ...
by columbia
Sat Jan 05, 2019 8:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Taming the Alpha beast!
Replies: 19
Views: 1282

Re: Taming the Alpha beast!

I think the only way it would work is that if you bought the “right” stocks and held them until retirement. The recent thread on the top stocks of 2000 tells you now impossible it is to make the correct choice for long term holdings. ie It won’t ever work.
by columbia
Fri Jan 04, 2019 1:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Strategy for the Bogleheads contest
Replies: 35
Views: 1700

Re: Strategy for the Bogleheads contest

I have noticed this for a long time, but I've also seen "cute" or "why not" guesses that likely aren't meant to be the closing price, like 2222.22 or 2345.67. Since no-one knows what will happen, all you have to do is make a guess (reasonable or not) to enter. Those who don't enter won't even have ...
by columbia
Fri Jan 04, 2019 1:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: investing Uncomfortably
Replies: 88
Views: 7713

Re: Factor funds: Active or Passive?

I don't think that a buy/hold range makes a fund active. It makes it "not an index fund", but as long as it's all done mechanically (no human picking stocks or times) it's still perfectly passive and it's cap weighted. But now you're back to a definition of "passive" that includes the vast majority...
by columbia
Fri Jan 04, 2019 12:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: US Stock Market Returns in the 21st Century
Replies: 92
Views: 4369

Re: US Stock Market Returns in the 21st Century

For the Shiller PE (CAPE10) naysayers, the 1/1/2000 value was 43.77 ( http://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe/table ), 1/CAPE10 would have estimated a 2.28% real return for the S&P 500. The S&P actually yielded a 2.94% real return for that period according to Portfolio Visualizer. Yes, I know those are tw...
by columbia
Fri Jan 04, 2019 6:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard's Wellesley Income fund is incredible
Replies: 200
Views: 63772

Re: Vanguard's Wellesley Income fund is incredible

A good deal of Vanguard Wellesley Income’s appeal inheres in our yearning for the era in which the fund was formed. The fund’s name, with its recondite Victorian allusion, https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arthur_Wellesley,_1st_Duke_of_Wellington resonates powerfully. Its investors become members of ...