Search found 2563 matches

by columbia
Wed May 27, 2020 12:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stocks are dirt cheap vs. Bonds
Replies: 1
Views: 247

Re: Stocks are dirt cheap vs. Bonds

The reasonable first questions would be:

Based on this metric, at what levels would stocks be fairly priced and at what level would they be expensive? When those levels last happened, did you think think stocks were fairly priced and expensive at those two respective time periods?
by columbia
Tue May 26, 2020 8:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: STT+LTT vs Intermediate Treasuries?
Replies: 4
Views: 316

Re: STT+LTT vs Intermediate Treasuries?

It’s easier to just hold intermediates, which is why most do.
by columbia
Tue May 26, 2020 6:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing in International Stocks
Replies: 40
Views: 2975

Re: Investing in International Stocks

Grayfox, one can limit a lot of concerns through a developed markets fund, although you get Singapore and Hong Kong. (Not advocating - I wouldn’t do it myself - just pointing it out.)
by columbia
Mon May 25, 2020 8:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will the US become like Japan?
Replies: 68
Views: 4944

Re: Will the US become like Japan?

If it does, why would one think that the rest of the world - in the aggregate - would be immune from the same outcome?
by columbia
Mon May 25, 2020 6:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jeremiah B. says to buy gold and silver
Replies: 29
Views: 1538

Re: Jeremiah B. says to buy gold and silver

Who is Jeremiah Babe and why would he be expected to properly predict inflation rates?

(A partial answer is that he’s a real estate agent.)
by columbia
Sun May 24, 2020 8:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dr. Malkiel: “I believe that investors need to put more China into their portfolios“
Replies: 138
Views: 8778

Re: Dr. Malkiel: “I believe that investors need to put more China into their portfolios“


Investing in China carries unique risks. Not of volatility, but of complete loss for a foreign investor.
Allegedly that’s priced in. Down to the penny, in fact.
by columbia
Sun May 24, 2020 2:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can Taleb's risk mitigation strategy be implemented by retail investors (if so how)?
Replies: 27
Views: 1943

Re: Can Taleb's risk mitigation strategy be implemented by retail investors (if so how)?

No offense, but if you are posting the question on this forum, then it’s best to admit you are way out of your league and focus on the basics. Why swing for the fences when singles and walks will get the job done? Why? Why should you want (or have the right) to mitigate risk if you are a biliionair...
by columbia
Sun May 24, 2020 12:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SWAN ETF - 10% Leaps / 90% Treasuries
Replies: 121
Views: 12965

Re: SWAN ETF - 10% Leaps / 90% Treasuries

Reading through this, it seems like SWAN acted as expected.

Does anyone here own it and how have they deployed it?
by columbia
Sun May 24, 2020 9:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Businesses that are permanently destroyed due to COVID?
Replies: 34
Views: 2706

Re: Businesses that are permanently destroyed due to COVID?

As far as index index funds go, I doubt you have to worry much about it. Maybe some already sketchy SCV companies?
by columbia
Sun May 24, 2020 7:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jack Bogle - Two Fund Portfolio
Replies: 1111
Views: 110246

Re: Jack Bogle - Two Fund Portfolio

abuss368 wrote:
Sun May 24, 2020 7:39 am
columbia wrote:
Sun May 24, 2020 6:25 am
Boring old Balanced Index is only down 4% this year.
Are you invested in this one fund?
I am not.
by columbia
Sun May 24, 2020 6:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIAA warns on negative yields on money market funds
Replies: 71
Views: 4759

Re: TIAA warns on negative yields on money market funds

Wonder how TIAA will sustain its guaranteed 3% on its Traditional account? That shouldn't be a problem for many years. Almost all of the bonds backing the TIAA Traditional account were purchased when rates were much higher. Also, they hold mostly long-duration bonds, given the restrictions on remov...
by columbia
Sun May 24, 2020 6:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jack Bogle - Two Fund Portfolio
Replies: 1111
Views: 110246

Re: Jack Bogle - Two Fund Portfolio

Boring old Balanced Index is only down 4% this year.
by columbia
Sat May 23, 2020 5:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIAA warns on negative yields on money market funds
Replies: 71
Views: 4759

Re: TIAA warns on negative yields on money market funds

Wonder how TIAA will sustain its guaranteed 3% on its Traditional account? That shouldn't be a problem for many years. Almost all of the bonds backing the TIAA Traditional account were purchased when rates were much higher. Also, they hold mostly long-duration bonds, given the restrictions on remov...
by columbia
Sat May 23, 2020 1:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can Taleb's risk mitigation strategy be implemented by retail investors (if so how)?
Replies: 27
Views: 1943

Re: Can Taleb's risk mitigation strategy be implemented by retail investors (if so how)?

No offense, but if you are posting the question on this forum, then it’s best to admit you are way out of your league and focus on the basics. Why swing for the fences when singles and walks will get the job done? Why? Why should you want (or have the right) to mitigate risk if you are a biliionair...
by columbia
Sat May 23, 2020 1:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can Taleb's risk mitigation strategy be implemented by retail investors (if so how)?
Replies: 27
Views: 1943

Re: Can Taleb's risk mitigation strategy be implemented by retail investors (if so how)?

No offense, but if you are posting the question on this forum, then it’s best to admit you are way out of your league and focus on the basics. Why swing for the fences when singles and walks will get the job done? Why? Why should you want (or have the right) to mitigate risk if you are a biliionair...
by columbia
Sat May 23, 2020 9:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Who's right about the future? Stock or Bond market?
Replies: 50
Views: 4429

Re: Who's right about the future? Stock or Bond market?

jajlrajrf wrote:
Sat May 23, 2020 9:27 am
Wanderingwheelz wrote:
Fri May 22, 2020 6:17 am

Agreed. The case for small cap value is getting stronger and stronger with each passing week, this year.
"This will finally be the year of Linux on the desktop!"
I am running Debian on a formerly dead iMac...
by columbia
Sat May 23, 2020 7:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIAA warns on negative yields on money market funds
Replies: 71
Views: 4759

Re: TIAA warns on negative yields on money market funds

I have no idea if negative MM yields are coming, but that’s *not* what TIAA is discussing/acting on. It’s about yields going low enough, such that their MM fee would result in a negative return for those holding money in the account.
by columbia
Fri May 22, 2020 9:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIAA warns on negative yields on money market funds
Replies: 71
Views: 4759

Re: TIAA warns on negative yields on money market funds

It becomes a more realistic problem, if your broker is charging 30 basis points for a money market account - which was what was happening at TIAA.
by columbia
Fri May 22, 2020 8:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard High Dividend Yield Index Fund
Replies: 168
Views: 15306

Re: Vanguard High Dividend Yield Index Fund

abuss368 wrote:
Fri May 22, 2020 7:49 pm
columbia wrote:
Fri May 22, 2020 7:37 pm
Stayed SEC yield is higher began the VG intermediate corporate fund. I presume that’s a newish development?
Lost me. This is a stock fund.
Some use these funds as pure dividend generators; whether that’s wise, I don’t have an opinion.
by columbia
Fri May 22, 2020 7:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard High Dividend Yield Index Fund
Replies: 168
Views: 15306

Re: Vanguard High Dividend Yield Index Fund

Stayed SEC yield is higher began the VG intermediate corporate fund. I presume that’s a newish development?
by columbia
Fri May 22, 2020 1:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Taleb Asness 'debate' in the light of Bogleheads philosophy
Replies: 146
Views: 6956

Re: The Taleb Asness 'debate' in the light of Bogleheads philosphy

Taleb has a very convoluted, obfuscated way of saying "personally, I like to play long shots." I take it as: I’m rich enough to live with cash and bills returns, but hedge a bit for an outsized payout when the rest of you are in deep pain. I don’t know if that’s a good strategy, but it’s not irrati...
by columbia
Thu May 21, 2020 8:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International market recovery
Replies: 146
Views: 9370

Re: International market recovery

Any strong thoughts about recovery of or long-term effects on international markets vs. US after this event-driven bear market? International indexes hold a lot of oil and financial companies. With the ECB keep rates negative, those banks will have reduced profitability. Oil companies like BP are n...
by columbia
Wed May 20, 2020 9:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dr. Malkiel: “I believe that investors need to put more China into their portfolios“
Replies: 138
Views: 8778

Re: Dr. Malkiel: “I believe that investors need to put more China into their portfolios“

A company cannot issue lots of new shares regularly and regularly expect the level of success with the new capital that will increase value for the current shareholders. Which is what Mr. Bernstein indicated about China. My impression is that there is a fair amount of mis-allocation of capital in C...
by columbia
Wed May 20, 2020 8:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dr. Malkiel: “I believe that investors need to put more China into their portfolios“
Replies: 138
Views: 8778

Re: Dr. Malkiel: “I believe that investors need to put more China into their portfolios“


A company cannot issue lots of new shares regularly and regularly expect the level of success with the new capital that will increase value for the current shareholders.
Which is what Mr. Bernstein indicated about China.
by columbia
Wed May 20, 2020 7:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P500 vs World Performance
Replies: 148
Views: 9327

Re: S&P500 vs World Performance

One is following principles, one is following the actions of a man who fell short of the wonderful principles he popularized. It's clear to see which one is correct I mean, if you go to church, do you strive to mimic the pastor's personal life or to follow the core principles that are espoused? I m...
by columbia
Tue May 19, 2020 5:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If you have access to TIAA-Traditional, should you own *any* bonds right now?
Replies: 14
Views: 937

Re: If you have access to TIAA-Traditional, should you own *any* bonds right now?

You’d have to pry Traditional out of my cold, dead hands: I’m 100% in that account.

(Since I’m going to annuituze, the above will sort of actually happen. :) )
by columbia
Mon Mar 30, 2020 1:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Great example of someone who should have never invested in factors
Replies: 119
Views: 8129

Re: Great example of someone who should have never invested in factors

Timely tweet: Larry Swedroe @larryswedroe· 8m In downturns, value/small tend to underperform. Both are riskier-fewer buffers to survive eco shocks. Drawdown now longest for value and third largest. It's really cheap, thus tempting to shift to value, but remember, tends to do poorly in bad times. Div...
by columbia
Mon Mar 30, 2020 12:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How do I avoid falling prey to this potential bear market rally?
Replies: 39
Views: 4271

Re: How do I avoid falling prey to this potential bear market rally?

The easiest way would be to stop buying.

That doesn’t appeal to many, of course.
by columbia
Mon Mar 30, 2020 8:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Great example of someone who should have never invested in factors
Replies: 119
Views: 8129

Re: Great example of someone who should have never invested in factors

Only the folks who are salivating now about all the good prices to BUY small-cap-value index funds RIGHT NOW should try the tilting thing. It is not just that you DON"T SELL, but you have to be committed to BUY, too! I am definitely not salivating. Well, maybe for another cinnamon roll to round out...
by columbia
Mon Mar 30, 2020 8:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Great example of someone who should have never invested in factors
Replies: 119
Views: 8129

Re: Great example of someone who should have never invested in factors

What’s the main information driver of people deciding to get into these funds? Advisors? Financial writers? Top level advertising from brokerages? Larry Swedroe and Paul Merriman are at least very consistent with their messages on the need for holding for life. Most others are not, I suspect. Mr. Bo...
by columbia
Mon Mar 30, 2020 5:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 3949
Views: 296718

Re: Coronavirus and the market

Because of highly appropriate privacy concerns, we'll not see the real scenes in hospitals, that alone has a high chance of delaying the market’s response to the matter and high. More important, an unknown percentage of individuals in now “unaffected” areas will still unfortunately embrace a level o...
by columbia
Sun Mar 29, 2020 8:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why does anyone invest in international funds?
Replies: 306
Views: 18190

Re: Why does anyone invest in international funds?

If you're just U.S. only because it's done well in the past, you're a performance chaser. If you invest in U.S. only because international under performed and then say you're doing it for the simplicity, you're still a performance chaser. If you do it because Jack and Warren said so and this advice...
by columbia
Sun Mar 29, 2020 3:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: There Is No Gold
Replies: 160
Views: 12255

Re: There Is No Gold

I don’t own any stocks.

That people in the US would load up on physical gold is relatively irrational in relation to the situation at hand; now if they are planning to sell their existing stock (presumably at a nice profit), that’s a different matter.
by columbia
Sun Mar 29, 2020 3:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: There Is No Gold
Replies: 160
Views: 12255

Re: There Is No Gold

I don’t think that I do.

What will get me into a hospital is if I’m sufficiently ill and there is room.
There might not be room, of course.
by columbia
Sun Mar 29, 2020 2:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: There Is No Gold
Replies: 160
Views: 12255

Re: There Is No Gold

Turbo29 wrote:
Sun Mar 29, 2020 2:42 pm
columbia wrote:
Sun Mar 29, 2020 2:36 pm
Gold won’t buy you entrance into a hospital.
I posit that in many cases if you could find the right person to offer the gold to, it definitely could buy you entrance, especially if the local currency was rapidly losing value.
I don’t live in that country. :happy
by columbia
Sun Mar 29, 2020 2:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: There Is No Gold
Replies: 160
Views: 12255

Re: There Is No Gold

Gold won’t buy you entrance into a hospital.
by columbia
Sun Mar 29, 2020 10:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ben Felix on RISK
Replies: 11
Views: 870

Re: Ben Felix on RISK

I’ve always very much taken Dr. Bernstein’s comments on risk very seriously. The market doesn’t owe anyone anything and might not recover in a hoped for timeline.
by columbia
Sun Mar 29, 2020 8:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Sitting on a bunch of cash; what to do with it if I believe we're headed for SPX 1800 and protracted recession?
Replies: 145
Views: 14075

Re: Sitting on a bunch of cash; what to do with it if I believe we're headed for SPX 1800 and protracted recession?

OP, you could never be 90/10 with your theory but why don’t you short sell the market if you are strongly believe in it. The question pertains to whether the OP should retain current level of extreme caution; it is not related to gambling. I can tell you right now he will be the first to bail out i...
by columbia
Sun Mar 29, 2020 8:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Sitting on a bunch of cash; what to do with it if I believe we're headed for SPX 1800 and protracted recession?
Replies: 145
Views: 14075

Re: Sitting on a bunch of cash; what to do with it if I believe we're headed for SPX 1800 and protracted recession?

vipertom1970 wrote:
Sun Mar 29, 2020 8:28 am
OP, you could never be 90/10 with your theory but why don’t you short sell the market if you are strongly believe in it.
The question pertains to whether the OP should retain current level of extreme caution; it is not related to gambling.
by columbia
Sun Mar 29, 2020 8:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 3949
Views: 296718

Re: Coronavirus and the market

The virus hasn’t even begun to hit smaller cities vin the way that math indicates it will. We drove around yesterday (in a city of 150,000) just get out of the house a bit. I’m shocked by how many people are still streaming in and out of stores. Just wait until the hospitals are overflowing in place...
by columbia
Sun Mar 29, 2020 8:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why not 100% PSLDX?
Replies: 186
Views: 15420

Re: Why not 100% PSLDX?

I sold my shares in this.

It should be interesting to see how long bonds shake out, given current rates.
by columbia
Sun Mar 29, 2020 7:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Sitting on a bunch of cash; what to do with it if I believe we're headed for SPX 1800 and protracted recession?
Replies: 145
Views: 14075

Re: Sitting on a bunch of cash; what to do with it if I believe we're headed for SPX 1800 and protracted recession?

PLEASE NOTE: Yes, this is market timing. I'm not looking for any reproach for trying to time the market. I love all of the "nobody knows nothing" comments you are getting when in the very first line you ask to not be talked out of market timing. Why can't people just answer your actual question? I ...
by columbia
Sun Mar 29, 2020 7:52 am
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 190769

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Lots of very sick people with the virus aren’t being admitted...because they’re not sick enough. :shock:
by columbia
Sun Mar 29, 2020 6:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Ultrashort bond as substitute for Total Bond?
Replies: 13
Views: 925

Re: Vanguard Ultrashort bond as substitute for Total Bond?

I don’t own TBM, so I don’t pay attention to how it performs.
Would you be locking in losses (from the slide in the corporate bond holdings)? If the concern is losing (more) money on a bond fund, why not just hold cash instead?
by columbia
Sun Mar 29, 2020 6:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The end of cruise ships [cruise line stock prices]
Replies: 246
Views: 26081

Re: The end of cruise ships

Cheez-It Guy wrote:
Sun Mar 29, 2020 6:37 am
Cruises have always seemed gross to me. Almost as gross as planes. But to each his own.
A floating Port-O-John comes to mind.
by columbia
Sun Mar 29, 2020 6:29 am
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 190769

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Since we know that not everyone who had the virus is being tested, the only figure that makes sense to me is deaths/million. For the US, that is now at 7. It was at 2 in the middle of this past week:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
by columbia
Sun Mar 29, 2020 6:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Sitting on a bunch of cash; what to do with it if I believe we're headed for SPX 1800 and protracted recession?
Replies: 145
Views: 14075

Re: Sitting on a bunch of cash; what to do with it if I believe we're headed for SPX 1800 and protracted recession?

truenorth418 wrote:
Sun Mar 29, 2020 6:05 am
Nobody knows nothin’. Stay the course.
You’re advocating that the poster remain out of the market.
Was that your intention?
by columbia
Sat Mar 28, 2020 8:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why does anyone invest in international funds?
Replies: 306
Views: 18190

Re: Why does anyone invest in international funds?

So you’ve gone from bored to trolling?

Super.