Search found 2875 matches

by columbia
Mon Sep 28, 2020 8:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What do Bogleheads think of what happen to Japan?
Replies: 48
Views: 3351

Re: What do Bogleheads think of what happen to Japan?

Sub-optimal outcomes arent unique to this time period of Japan, but it also seems odd to sit around fearing them.
by columbia
Sun Sep 27, 2020 7:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Myths of international investing - Fidelity
Replies: 158
Views: 10356

Re: Myths of international investing - Fidelity

I am Canadian, and my allocation to international is 90%. I wonder if that is too much? :P :wink: A huge portion of Canada's economy is linked to trade, and the stock market in Canada is concentrated in financials and minerals. That means a weaker currency may have worse household utility impacts d...
by columbia
Sun Sep 27, 2020 2:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does the three fund portfolio provide adequate protection from inflation?
Replies: 47
Views: 3039

Re: Does the three fund portfolio provide adequate protection from inflation?

The older Boglehead portfolio of Total Stock Market, Total Bond Market, Total International Stock Market, TIPS, and REITs might be a place to start if you are concerned about inflation. Wait...there was an older Boglehead portfolio? Never knew that. What ever happened to it? Was it taken behind the...
by columbia
Sat Sep 26, 2020 6:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Economist: The age-old strategy of buying cheap shares is faltering
Replies: 31
Views: 5090

Re: The Economist: The age-old strategy of buying cheap shares is faltering

That article is the equivalent of a weatherman saying it's raining when it's raining.
by columbia
Fri Sep 25, 2020 12:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Myths of international investing - Fidelity
Replies: 158
Views: 10356

Re: Myth's of international investing - Fidelity

galawdawg wrote: Fri Sep 25, 2020 12:13 pm In the ideal scenario, a new investor will choose a portfolio that will enable them to do what I did...stay the course for decades without regret or anxiety. :happy
This is most important takeaway from any asset allocation conversation.
by columbia
Fri Sep 25, 2020 8:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: US Investor investing mostly in international
Replies: 26
Views: 1987

Re: US Investor investing mostly in international

This was mentioned in another thread , but is relevant to this one. Swensen's Yale endowment asset allocation to equity is 16.5% US and 83.5% international: Absolute return 23% Venture capital 21.5% Leveraged buyouts 16.5% Foreign equity 13.75% Real estate 10% Bonds and cash 7% Natural resources 5....
by columbia
Fri Sep 25, 2020 7:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Swenson's Yale Portfolio
Replies: 23
Views: 2147

Re: Swenson's Yale Portfolio

Yale is planning to be around for another 300 years and I'm not.
by columbia
Thu Sep 24, 2020 12:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 8934
Views: 709776

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Robot Monster wrote: Thu Sep 24, 2020 12:21 pm "Stocks turned higher Thursday in a choppy session after Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said he plans to resume fiscal stimulus talks with House Speaker Nancy Pelosi."
Source
The beast will rise again...
by columbia
Wed Sep 23, 2020 7:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Good Technology Fund or EFT?
Replies: 25
Views: 1904

Re: A Good Technology Fund or EFT?

LiveSimple wrote: Wed Sep 23, 2020 7:51 pm IGM iShares Expanded Tech Sector ETF
This is the correct answer, as 4 of the top 6 holdings are not classified as information technology and, as such, are not in VGT.
by columbia
Mon Sep 21, 2020 6:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is anyone waiting until after the election?
Replies: 145
Views: 12979

Re: Is anyone waiting until after the election?

Trying to predict how the markets will react to an election seems problematic. I have a relative who bought a large chunk of physical gold the day after the 2008 election (based on his politics and perceived understanding of the future of the economy and markets). One can reasonably say that he shou...
by columbia
Sun Sep 20, 2020 7:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Reasons to invest internationally, or not.
Replies: 191
Views: 10783

Re: Reasons to invest internationally, or not.

asif408 wrote: Tue Sep 15, 2020 3:07 pm
columbia wrote: Tue Sep 15, 2020 12:09 pm I've never seen a single human claim that one country would have the best individual stock performance.
You must not come here very often, then.
Who has said that the US will perform better than every single country? You're engaging in rank trolling.
by columbia
Sat Sep 19, 2020 6:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Lars Kroijer: If you are not in Total World (VT or VTWAX) you are market timing!
Replies: 50
Views: 4435

Re: Lars Kroijer: If you are not in Total World (VT or VTWAX) you are market timing!

So he's saying that everybody should invest in International except Americans? How's that for "market timing" ? My impression is he's saying everyone should invest globally. US investors can get away with home country bias, but just because he's saying we can get away with it, doesn't mean he's rec...
by columbia
Sat Sep 19, 2020 3:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Lars Kroijer: If you are not in Total World (VT or VTWAX) you are market timing!
Replies: 50
Views: 4435

Re: Lars Kroijer: If you are not in Total World (VT or VTWAX) you are market timing!

So he's saying that everybody should invest in International except Americans? How's that for "market timing" ? My impression is he's saying everyone should invest globally. US investors can get away with home country bias, but just because he's saying we can get away with it, doesn't mean he's rec...
by columbia
Sat Sep 19, 2020 11:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Multifactor fund VFMF has had a bad year
Replies: 93
Views: 4800

Re: Vanguard Multifactor fund VFMF has had a bad year

I'd beware any investment vehicle that portents to be better and smarter than the market. I also suspect the fund manager is doing just fine too. Doesn't appear that is how the factor-based vehicle is advertised. See: https://investor.vanguard.com/etf/factor-funds It's also unclear that "portent" c...
by columbia
Fri Sep 18, 2020 8:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Multifactor fund VFMF has had a bad year
Replies: 93
Views: 4800

Re: VFMF has had a bad year

Looking at the performance data for the same period, it looks like VFMF roughly tied the broad market until the SARS-CoV-2 crash, wherein it crashed harder and didn't recover as quickly. If you look at where it's noticeably underweight and overweight (sector wise), no great surprise: https://invest...
by columbia
Thu Sep 17, 2020 4:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Inversely Correlated Investments with the Greatest Spread?
Replies: 19
Views: 1038

Re: Inversely Correlated Investments with the Greatest Spread?

Portfolio diversification comes from uncorrelated assets, not from inversely correlated assets. If the stock market, over the long term has historically always gone up, something with inverse correlation would have always gone down. Not something you want to hold as part of any long term portfolio....
by columbia
Thu Sep 17, 2020 2:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: any lessons to remember from dot com bubble?
Replies: 22
Views: 2209

Re: any lessons to remember from dot com bubble?

Don't buy individual stocks.
by columbia
Thu Sep 17, 2020 12:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ray Dalio issues stark warning about US dollar’s future as global reserve currency
Replies: 42
Views: 3416

Re: Ray Dalio issues stark warning about US dollar’s future as global reserve currency

Expanding this to the maximum ~ 1986:
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/dxy

I guess someone could claim that the dollar is weakening, but people see what they want to see.
by columbia
Tue Sep 15, 2020 12:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Reasons to invest internationally, or not.
Replies: 191
Views: 10783

Re: Reasons to invest internationally, or not.

For everyone picking various endpoints to debate what is "recency bias" and not, according to the Dimson-Marsh data the US has outperformed ex-US by 2% since 1900. And 200 years ago the US was not even a top 10 economy. Right, but Australia has the best returns of any country, according to the late...
by columbia
Tue Sep 15, 2020 8:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ray Dalio's Bridgewater
Replies: 24
Views: 2079

Re: Ray Dalio's Bridgewater

Dalio is sorta the anti-Bogle. Whereas Bogle was reserved and thoughtful, Dalio is eccentric and effusive. Bogle taught moderation, cautiousness, and long-term thinking. Dalio coverts his own brand of pop psychology into questionable business philosophies and then enforces them in an almost cult-li...
by columbia
Tue Sep 15, 2020 6:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Reasons to invest internationally, or not.
Replies: 191
Views: 10783

Re: Reasons to invest internationally, or not.

It's curious that there are threads dedicated to investing in triple-leveraged funds, yet how much one allocates to ex-US is somehow a point of heated controversy. :o
by columbia
Mon Sep 14, 2020 6:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Reasons to invest internationally, or not.
Replies: 191
Views: 10783

Re: Reasons to invest internationally, or not.

Sometimes I wonder if international-leery folks might take a stab at international if there was a fund like VT, but 1) had a much smaller international allocation, and 2) the international allocation was megacaps, companies whose revenue sources more closely resembled US megacaps'. Just compare San...
by columbia
Sat Sep 12, 2020 2:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wellesley, "clones" and future prospects
Replies: 15
Views: 1654

Re: Wellesley, "clones" and future prospects

In terms of the mix of stock and bonds, one could do a lot worse.
by columbia
Fri Sep 11, 2020 8:55 pm
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Moving from US to Canada [permanently] [India ex-pat in US]
Replies: 17
Views: 2288

Re: Moving from US to Canada [permanently]

I'm thoroughly envious.
by columbia
Thu Sep 10, 2020 8:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2020 Hedge Fund contest
Replies: 277
Views: 21565

Re: 2020 Hedge Fund contest

Shorting GE and Boeing was a good move, but won't be enough to win. :(
by columbia
Wed Sep 09, 2020 6:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard International Bonds
Replies: 42
Views: 3468

Re: Vanguard International Bonds

Shouldn't this fund be named Developed Markets Bond?
by columbia
Tue Sep 08, 2020 4:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jack Bogle - Two Fund Portfolio
Replies: 1225
Views: 129381

Re: Jack Bogle - Two Fund Portfolio

The VT crowd might stoke out if they see that statue. ;)
by columbia
Tue Sep 08, 2020 5:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are the days of 7% avg index returns over?
Replies: 65
Views: 9562

Re: Are the days of 7% avg index returns over?

Projecting any level of returns seems unwise - you take what the market gives you.
(It does raise the question of investors engaging in "planning", where they actually do speculate on future returns - it seems silly.)
by columbia
Mon Sep 07, 2020 4:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Hedging interest rate risk?
Replies: 31
Views: 2102

Re: Hedging interest rate risk?

Those are some grim real returns.
by columbia
Mon Sep 07, 2020 7:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Farewell Yield: Jonathan Clements' short-term bond barbell
Replies: 36
Views: 3105

Re: The “Abandon Bonds” strategy [Farewell Yield: Jonathan Clements]

Short Term TIPS is a joke unless one's duration is also short. To minimize inflation and interest rate risk, IMO TIPS should match expected duration. Reinvestment of maturing Short Term TIPS during an inflationary event may not be pretty. I don't particularly understand this view. The author is age...
by columbia
Mon Sep 07, 2020 7:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P 500 included 94.81% of the market at inception
Replies: 16
Views: 2367

Re: S&P 500 included 94.81% of the market at inception

....The Datatron machine that computes the new index in the Boston laboratories of Melpar, Inc., eliminates all stocks not included in the averages, refuses to register changes of more than 3 per cent until they have been checked, and keeps a constant running record of high for the day, low for the...
by columbia
Sat Sep 05, 2020 1:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is it really passive index if S&P actively excludes Tesla?
Replies: 145
Views: 10336

Re: Is it really passive index if S&P actively excludes Tesla?

There is no such thing as a truly “passive” index. Every single index is made by humans who decide which criteria to use to determine the contents of the index. Whether it’s the DOW or NASDAQ or S&P or some niche proprietary index they all reflect the choices and biases of their makers. The product...
by columbia
Sat Sep 05, 2020 7:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Did bonds really beat stocks over the last 20 years?
Replies: 34
Views: 3675

Re: Did bonds really beat stocks over the last 20 years?

Three bear markets can be detrimental to stock returns.
by columbia
Sat Sep 05, 2020 7:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is it really passive index if S&P actively excludes Tesla?
Replies: 145
Views: 10336

Re: Is it really passive index if S&P actively excludes Tesla?

They meet the eligibility requirements, but that is just the first step. With a P/E ratio over 1000 it is understandable that they were passed over. Seriously, there is no justification for their valuation. None. The very definition of irrational exuberance. And they just announced they need to rai...
by columbia
Sat Sep 05, 2020 7:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What to do with significant index changes, e.g., S&P 500 adding Tesla
Replies: 200
Views: 17338

Re: What to do with significant index changes, e.g., S&P 500 adding Tesla

Stef wrote: Sat Sep 05, 2020 3:16 am That's why SP500 is kind of garbage. VTI >>> VOO.
Garbage?
by columbia
Fri Sep 04, 2020 7:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Assessing your investment behavior during the pandemic
Replies: 35
Views: 2201

Re: Assessing your investment behavior during the pandemic

I'm extremely pleased with getting out of VOO at 308 and buying back at 246. Situational awareness for the win.
by columbia
Thu Sep 03, 2020 11:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 20234
Views: 2762216

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Robin Hood SEC investigation?

(Plenty of people have speculated about RH's impact in the other direction...)
by columbia
Thu Sep 03, 2020 10:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 20234
Views: 2762216

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

VOO holders loving the TSLA drop.
by columbia
Thu Sep 03, 2020 10:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Boglehead diversification
Replies: 34
Views: 2268

Re: Boglehead diversification

I understand now that REITs are equities and can be purchased in ETF funds. Not all REITs are traded on a stock exchange. There are also private REITs. Private REITs have several advantages, such as: - the guy who sells them to you gets a nice payday - illiquidity - income illusion - scandalously h...
by columbia
Thu Sep 03, 2020 5:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Boglehead diversification
Replies: 34
Views: 2268

Re: Boglehead diversification

Boglehead investing is big on diversification. So why is it that other classes of assets besides equities and bonds are not part of that mix? By other classes, I mean refits, gold funds etc OP, judging by the fact that many BHs won't even invest in foreign stocks, I would say this forum isn't crazy...
by columbia
Wed Sep 02, 2020 8:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Chase performance all you want.. it doesn't need to matter
Replies: 111
Views: 8102

Re: Chase performance all you want.. it doesn't need to matter

You problem won't outperform the market, but that's also true of investors with assiduously "optimized" portfolios.
by columbia
Wed Sep 02, 2020 2:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 8934
Views: 709776

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

dogagility wrote: Wed Sep 02, 2020 2:20 pm
Wait, what... I was making investment decisions based upon this thread...
The real play is to be amused by RobotMonster's vexing over his international funds. :wink:
by columbia
Wed Sep 02, 2020 12:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rising inflation with low or no yield in fixed income
Replies: 61
Views: 2784

Re: Rising inflation with low or no yield in fixed income

At the same time, I think that I bonds are a slam dunk right now. There's virtually no downside risk, and you're guaranteed to match inflation (though you're subject to taxflation). T-Bills. :idea: NO downside risk. They will match inflation unless it jumps significantly over a few months. And you ...
by columbia
Tue Sep 01, 2020 4:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Jack Bogle's Simple Advice for Investors"
Replies: 60
Views: 6282

Re: "Jack Bogle's Simple Advice for Investors"

My question is if there are any data or studies that objectively demonstrate that simplicity improves performance. Which complex portfolio do you believe will outperform a standard 2/3 fund approach and why? That is the question I am asking-- in a different format. If someone tells you they know, I...
by columbia
Tue Sep 01, 2020 1:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Jack Bogle's Simple Advice for Investors"
Replies: 60
Views: 6282

Re: "Jack Bogle's Simple Advice for Investors"

Munir wrote: Tue Sep 01, 2020 12:59 pm
My question is if there are any data or studies that objectively demonstrate that simplicity improves performance.
Which complex portfolio do you believe will outperform a standard 2/3 fund approach and why?