Search found 583 matches

by columbia
Sun Apr 22, 2018 9:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Limits of Modern Portfolio Theory - Do Investors Understand What They Own?
Replies: 16
Views: 1863

Re: The Limits of Modern Portfolio Theory - Do Investors Understand What They Own?

I just looked over the holdings of the Vanguard small cap value and international small funds: I can guarantee you that I have no idea what those companies do. :)
by columbia
Thu Apr 19, 2018 1:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The World in 2050 — An Emergent Middle Class
Replies: 35
Views: 3858

Re: The World in 2050 — An Emergent Middle Class

Should we expect an ETF, which screens on expected population growth (based on rolling 30 year estimates)? :)
by columbia
Wed Apr 18, 2018 6:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The World in 2050 — An Emergent Middle Class
Replies: 35
Views: 3858

Re: The World in 2050 — An Emergent Middle Class

As an investor, these dynamics would only seem to matter if there were a high correlation between GDP growth and market returns. I don’t *think* that is the case.
by columbia
Tue Apr 17, 2018 9:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The World in 2050 — GDP & Stock Market Capitalization
Replies: 60
Views: 4256

Re: The World in 2050 — GDP & Stock Market Capitalization

jebmke wrote:
Sun Apr 15, 2018 2:19 pm
I will be either 97 or dead.
82 or dead, here.

A global equity portfolio is probably best reserved for the 40 (currently) and under crowd, imo.
by columbia
Sun Apr 15, 2018 6:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Pacer Wealthshield ETF
Replies: 11
Views: 636

Re: Pacer Wealthshield ETF

WealthShield Strategy Evaluates the market for risk Uses rules to determine whether to invest in equity sectors or fixed income. Reevaluates regularly to ensure investments are still appropriate for market conditions. It appears to be a pretty sophisticated investment instrument and undoubtedly wor...
by columbia
Fri Apr 13, 2018 6:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why are expected returns so much lower than historical returns?
Replies: 153
Views: 8319

Re: Why are expected returns so much lower than historical returns?

The inevitable conclusion (by some) to this type of discussion is that valuation matters and that international funds are the answer (in response). In that I can’t predict future, perhaps that will be the true. It just seems odd that many are confident that international returns will be higher in th...
by columbia
Thu Apr 12, 2018 6:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is HSA right for me.
Replies: 6
Views: 787

Re: Is HSA right for me.

I set up an account this week with the company, which Vanguard links to. Their website is pretty clunky, but it only took about 10 minutes. The companion debit card appears to only work with the cash portion of your holdings. You’d think that it would at least default to Vanguard federal money marke...
by columbia
Wed Apr 11, 2018 8:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Introduction to Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS)
Replies: 53
Views: 4658

Re: Introduction to Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS)

It would be nice to see Vanguard offer an easier exposure to TIPS, for bond holders who don’t wish to juggle multiple bond funds and offer it in short and intermediate: 1/3 TIPS 1/3 Treasuries 1/3 Corporate That covers the various concerns pretty well. As I use TIAA Traditional, I don’t own a bond f...
by columbia
Sun Apr 08, 2018 1:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 96 percent of stocks are no better then TBills
Replies: 29
Views: 6756

Re: 96 percent of stocks are no better then TBills

Quick comparison of VT against two other global ETFs: IOO (100 stocks) DGT (150 stocks) https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&timePeriod=4&startYear=1985&firstMonth=1&endYear=2018&lastMonth=12&endDate=04%2F07%2F2018&initialAmount=10000&annualOperation=0&annualAdjustment=0&inflat...
by columbia
Sat Apr 07, 2018 9:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Just how safe is a short-term corporate bond fund?
Replies: 53
Views: 5970

Re: Just how safe is a short-term corporate bond fund?

Cobbling together the two...it's not clear that TBM is a safe haven compared to a ST corporate index fund.
Maybe it is and I just need to see the right data series?
by columbia
Sat Apr 07, 2018 9:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Just how safe is a short-term corporate bond fund?
Replies: 53
Views: 5970

Re: Just how safe is a short-term corporate bond fund?

The Vanguard fund in this class only goes back to 2010. I would be quite interested in seeing much longer historical data for short term corporate bonds. If one compares TBM to short term invest. grade bonds since 1987: https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-asset-class-allocation?s=y&mode=2&s...
by columbia
Fri Apr 06, 2018 11:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle on stock turbulence: ‘never seen a market this volatile to this extent in my career’
Replies: 88
Views: 12322

Re: Bogle on stock turbulence: ‘never seen a market this volatile to this extent in my career’

As I buy every week, I haven’t noticed much of a drop in total portfolio value - 2018 purchases have just been cheaper. 8-)
by columbia
Wed Apr 04, 2018 5:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Just how safe is a short-term corporate bond fund?
Replies: 53
Views: 5970

Re: Just how safe is a short-term corporate bond fund?

It's the classic case of incurring higher risk for the expectation of higher reward, in a highly efficient market. This is a great quote. The decision is based on if whether the (possible) higher return is worth the higher risk. Why is the higher return desired or needed? Is the higher risk worth i...
by columbia
Tue Apr 03, 2018 6:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Where Nobel Economists Put Their Money
Replies: 19
Views: 4491

Re: Where Nobel Economists Put Their Money

Whether you are an avowed Boglehead or not, John Bogle's recommendation to "Don't just do something; stand there!" holds for Nobel economists and mere ordinary PhD academics (of which I am one). As pointed out above, professors usually have great job stability, at least after they receive tenure. T...
by columbia
Sun Apr 01, 2018 8:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The "American companies I invest in already have international exposure" argument --- valid or not?
Replies: 139
Views: 10077

Re: The "American companies I invest in already have international exposure" argument --- valid or not?

nedsaid wrote:
Sun Apr 01, 2018 1:44 pm
Oh boy, next thing you know there will be a revenue weighted index fund that weights by revenue by country. I am sure there is somebody in Academia working hard on this right now and soon we will see a Larry Swedroe article on this. :wink: Revenue tilting.

:P
by columbia
Sat Mar 31, 2018 1:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is anyone putting money aside into Gold?
Replies: 147
Views: 13939

Re: Is anyone putting money aside into Gold?

If I were looking for a small measure of *potential* portfolio insurance, I’d probably buy something like this (VXX): http://etfdb.com/etf/VXX/ In fact, I own 10 shares and they sure didn’t cost me much. Whether they will react as I *think* they will at the time of a black swan crash remains to be s...
by columbia
Sat Mar 31, 2018 9:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 401k vs Traditional IRA
Replies: 34
Views: 1521

Re: 401k vs Traditional IRA

Max 401k + max Roth

No one knows where taxes will be in the future.
by columbia
Sat Mar 31, 2018 8:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The "American companies I invest in already have international exposure" argument --- valid or not?
Replies: 139
Views: 10077

Re: The "American companies I invest in already have international exposure" argument --- valid or not?

One rough observation: over the period when Total Stock and Total International have both existed, their monthly correlation has been 0.85%. I think it's reasonable to interpret this as meaning that about 85% of your Total International allocation is not actually doing anything different from your ...
by columbia
Wed Mar 28, 2018 7:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should I be worried about the S&P Index fund ?
Replies: 51
Views: 5688

Re: Should I be worried about the S&P Index fund ?

I don’t think Amazon should be classified as a “tech” company. It’s a retail outlet, with convenient terms for the customer physically acquiring the purchase.
by columbia
Sun Mar 25, 2018 3:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rationale for a 30% ex-US equity allocation
Replies: 30
Views: 3376

Re: Rationale for a 30% ex-US equity allocation

I really don’t understand the aversion to true global market cap weighting on this forum. The US only represents a quarter of global GDP, and therefore we’re already over-represented in market cap indexes at 50%. If nothing else, at least consider that international has lagged US for years now; kee...
by columbia
Wed Mar 21, 2018 1:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Personal Advisory opinion on Vanguard Total World Index Fund
Replies: 11
Views: 1678

Re: Vanguard Personal Advisory opinion on Vanguard Total World Index Fund

Total world stock index will not be as tax efficient some years. Int'l holdings have to be at least 50% of the holdings to qualify for the foreign tax credit. The decision should be whether you want 40% in int'l or a market cap weight. If you want the latter, setting it up with the two index funds ...
by columbia
Sun Mar 18, 2018 11:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIAA traditional question
Replies: 14
Views: 1021

Re: TIAA traditional question

TIAA appears to be giving high priority to annuitants vs certain other things, like IRA investors. Priority appears to be not DECREASING those additional amounts, to extent possible. But in the five years if been receiving lifetime income from my annuitized Trad, I've seen three modest increases in...
by columbia
Sat Mar 17, 2018 3:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard New Factor Funds Portfolio Statistics
Replies: 92
Views: 10830

Re: Vanguard New Factor Funds Portfolio Statistics

VFVA seems to out do TISM, for folks looking for cheaper options aside from TSM. I wouldn't consider VFVA or any U.S. value or factor fund an alternative to Total International or any international fund. I like diversifying away from pure U.S. beta (i.e. Total Market), but I consider value, size, e...
by columbia
Sat Mar 17, 2018 10:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard New Factor Funds Portfolio Statistics
Replies: 92
Views: 10830

Re: Vanguard New Factor Funds Portfolio Statistics

VFVA seems to out do TISM, for folks looking for cheaper options aside from TSM.
by columbia
Wed Mar 14, 2018 11:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Who's doing 100% international equity?
Replies: 79
Views: 8824

Re: Who's doing 100% international equity?

i would feel comfortable holding only VXUS if it were currency hedged... in other words, i wouldn't be scared to do it. i think the results would be 'just fine.' still, id prefer my current allocation. holding both US and International in roughly equal portions, lack of hedge doesn't bother me. Wel...
by columbia
Tue Mar 13, 2018 7:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Who's doing 100% international equity?
Replies: 79
Views: 8824

Re: Who's doing 100% international equity?

Have we seen even a 20 year period since 1970, where international outpaced US?
by columbia
Tue Mar 13, 2018 6:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Who's doing 100% international equity?
Replies: 79
Views: 8824

Re: Who's doing 100% international equity?

i would feel comfortable holding only VXUS if it were currency hedged... in other words, i wouldn't be scared to do it. i think the results would be 'just fine.' still, id prefer my current allocation. holding both US and International in roughly equal portions, lack of hedge doesn't bother me. Wel...
by columbia
Fri Feb 02, 2018 10:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 6393
Views: 1372808

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Note that I own ~ 25% international:

International plunged just as much today. That global diversification thing doesn’t always play out in the way some want it to.
by columbia
Sun Jan 28, 2018 10:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dalio says bonds have entered a bear market
Replies: 96
Views: 9675

Re: Dalio says bonds have entered a bear market

TBM has a current one year return of 3.56% (per their website). That doesn’t seem like a bear market to me.
by columbia
Tue Jan 23, 2018 7:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How does everyone keep track of your portfolio?
Replies: 171
Views: 18047

Re: How does everyone keep track of your portfolio?

I like Personal Capital, but is there a similar app which doesn’t lump REITs into “alternatives?”
by columbia
Sun Jan 21, 2018 10:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard will use blockchain to share index data
Replies: 56
Views: 5996

Re: Vanguard will use blockchain to share index data

Taylor Larimore wrote:
Wed Dec 13, 2017 10:48 am
Bogleheads:

There is lots I don't know (and don't need to know) about investing. This is one of them.

Best wishes.
Taylor
This is on point. :)
by columbia
Sat Jan 20, 2018 11:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's your U.S. : International ratio?
Replies: 190
Views: 34842

Re: What's your U.S. : International ratio?

Around 25% right now. I plan to let that float where it goes and not worry about rebalancing within us vs intl.
by columbia
Fri Jan 19, 2018 7:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Nice write up in the NY Times about the transformative powers of blockchain on societal interactions
Replies: 24
Views: 2748

Re: Nice write up in the NY Times about the transformative powers of blockchain on societal interactions

Makes for a good read, also may help keep the bubble investors "first" impulses in check. https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/16/magazine/beyond-the-bitcoin-bubble.html There's a lot of good behind Bitcoin and other cryptos that will remain once the dust has settled but it maybe something completely di...
by columbia
Thu Jan 18, 2018 6:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: GE and the myth of "safe blue-chip stocks"
Replies: 125
Views: 16331

Re: GE and the myth of "safe blue-chip stocks"

Setting aside individual stocks, while I don’t own it, I think that an ETF with blue chip stocks meets any reasonable standard of diversification. For example, MGC: https://personal.vanguard.com/us/FundsAllHoldings?FundId=3137&FundIntExt=INT&tableName=Equity&tableIndex=0&sort=marketValue&sortOrder=d...
by columbia
Wed Jan 17, 2018 11:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jack Bogle says Fidelity will be sold in 5 years...
Replies: 37
Views: 8785

Re: Jack Bogle says Fidelity will be sold in 5 years...

And?

Is the supposition that using Fidelity will be a worse choice, as a result?
by columbia
Wed Jan 17, 2018 6:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 70% chance of correction in 2018 according to Vanguard - Highest in 15 years
Replies: 111
Views: 14529

Re: 70% chance of correction in 2018 according to Vanguard - Highest in 15 years

It’s certainly possible, but I need to check on dinner, so will not provide a prediction...
by columbia
Wed Jan 17, 2018 12:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Free market Takes care of itself. EJ loses
Replies: 14
Views: 1581

Re: The Free market Takes care of itself. EJ loses

I’m quite thankful that my early employers (and father) steered me into working only with Vanguard and TIAA.
by columbia
Wed Jan 17, 2018 11:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emerging Markets equities went sideways for 50 years 1920-70
Replies: 24
Views: 2216

Re: Emerging Markets equities went sideways for 50 years 1920-70

I wonder how folks will feel about owning a dedicated EM fund, if China eventually moves to a DMs status.
by columbia
Tue Jan 16, 2018 12:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Mark Cuban -] "Diversification is for idiots..."
Replies: 26
Views: 3880

Re: Diversification is for idiots...

He operates in a specific world and - like Buffett - his views on the stock are of limited use for the average Joe.
by columbia
Mon Jan 15, 2018 7:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International stocks underperformed for the last 20 years.
Replies: 148
Views: 15995

Re: International stocks underperformed for the last 20 years.

re:plot above of 0, 25 and 50 international:

Lower returns and higher standard deviation isn’t exactly a strong selling point (if the intention is to say that US investors *need* international exposure).

Note: I own some to own some...
by columbia
Mon Jan 08, 2018 7:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jack Bogle Says ‘Avoid Bitcoin Like the Plague’
Replies: 214
Views: 26591

Re: Jack Bogle Says ‘Avoid Bitcoin Like the Plague’

What’s the end game of agitating for Bitcoin? If you think it will make you rich or is the future of...something, go for it, but let’s not pretend that it’s a rational investment.
by columbia
Sun Jan 07, 2018 2:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does the 3 fund portfolio seem somewhat flawed?
Replies: 79
Views: 6421

Re: Does the 3 fund portfolio seem somewhat flawed?

I think this boils down to whether one can accurately forecast the optimal portfolio going forward.

I know that I cannot do that and don’t try to.
by columbia
Thu Jan 04, 2018 11:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Edward Jones?
Replies: 25
Views: 3695

Re: Why Edward Jones?

My otherwise intelligent boss at work uses an Edward Jones advisor. I’m s nit my place to comment on the matter.

:confused
by columbia
Wed Jan 03, 2018 9:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Case for Bonds in Taxable?
Replies: 24
Views: 2929

Re: A Case for Bonds in Taxable?

To me, the most obviously reason to have some bonds in taxable is related to personal liquidity: if you need some cash, you can’t win withdraw it from your IRA below a certain age. The standard response would be having an emergency fund (in cash), but that’s a personal choice. I have no interest in ...
by columbia
Tue Jan 02, 2018 7:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Becoming comfortable with International Stocks
Replies: 15
Views: 1857

Re: Becoming comfortable with International Stocks

One way to feel safer is to stick to a developed markets fund like VEA from Vanguard.

Personally, I have no interest in places like Russia and Brazil and they can be avoided.
by columbia
Mon Jan 01, 2018 3:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Target Date Funds & sustainable retirement income and spending
Replies: 11
Views: 1114

Re: Target Date Funds & sustainable retirement income and spending

You don't need to use DFA to implement this strategy. I use 3 TIPS funds to approximate the DFA strategy: a long term TIPS fund (LTPZ, duration of 22.5 years), an intermediate term TIPS fund (VAIPX, duration of 8 years) and a short term TIPS fund (VTAPX, duration of 3 years) I agree and I do someth...
by columbia
Mon Jan 01, 2018 2:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buffett wins his bet: S&P500 beats selected hedge funds over last 10 years
Replies: 45
Views: 6401

Re: Buffett wins his bet: S&P500 beats selected hedge funds over last 10 years

In any event, hedge fund strategies are designed to be lower risk, and generally acknowledged lower return as well, than the S&P 500 index. So what happened was what was expected, just like stocks are expected to beat 3-month treasuries in return . This is true, regardless of the # of people in the...
by columbia
Mon Jan 01, 2018 1:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buffett wins his bet: S&P500 beats selected hedge funds over last 10 years
Replies: 45
Views: 6401

Re: Buffett wins his bet: S&P500 beats selected hedge funds over last 10 years

Heck, the typical benchmark of a hedge fund is the 3-month treasury index!
Yet another reason to wonder why anyone would pay for the “privilege” of investing in one.