Search found 839 matches

by columbia
Mon Sep 24, 2018 7:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Siegel: 'stocks are overvalued on a long-term basis, but bonds are enormously overvalued on a long-term basis'
Replies: 50
Views: 4688

Re: Siegel: 'stocks are overvalued on a long-term basis, but bonds are enormously overvalued on a long-term basis'

Another thing that caught my eye:
When the CAPE is at 33, the average return is less than 1%.
1. Real or nominal?
2. Has that actually been the case?
by columbia
Mon Sep 24, 2018 9:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Siegel: 'stocks are overvalued on a long-term basis, but bonds are enormously overvalued on a long-term basis'
Replies: 50
Views: 4688

Re: Siegel: 'stocks are overvalued on a long-term basis, but bonds are enormously overvalued on a long-term basis'

I found this to be interesting: Asked how the currently hot FAANG stocks (Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix, Google) would fare in the long run, Siegel compared the situation to the 1990s, when small stocks were believed to outperform in the long term. After further investigation, he found that the s...
by columbia
Sun Sep 23, 2018 5:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tail Risk Protection
Replies: 22
Views: 1910

Re: Tail Risk Protection

- One likely scenario is that when its said and done, the cost of the insurance + the manager fees erode most of the added value.
In general, this answers your question.
by columbia
Sun Sep 23, 2018 6:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 286
Views: 27863

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Everyone’s favorite alarmist begs to differ... “We won’t be able to call it a recession, it’s going to be worse than the Great Depression,” said economic commentator Peter Schiff, forecasting a major economic downturn as early as the tail end of the Trump presidency’s first term. “The US economy is ...
by columbia
Sat Sep 22, 2018 5:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A bump on the road from active to passive
Replies: 31
Views: 3008

Re: A bump on the road from active to passive

What I found those was surprising, with STAR having the better average annual returns than the LS and TD funds over 1-year (10.11% v. 7.69% and 8.15%), 3-year (10.00% v. 8.56% and 9.01%), 5-year (9.08% v. 7.87% and 8.34%), and 10-year (7.94% v. 6.56% and 7.08%). You also might be surprised to know ...
by columbia
Sat Sep 22, 2018 11:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Learning How to Value Invest
Replies: 15
Views: 1441

Re: Learning How to Value Invest

Wellington is certainly a value-based fund, which has performed about as well as 80% SP500/20% TBM (for as long as Portfolio Visualizer would allow me to make that comparison). https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&timePeriod=4&startYear=1985&firstMonth=1&endYear=2018&lastMonth=...
by columbia
Sat Sep 22, 2018 7:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are We Headed For A Passive Index Meltdown?
Replies: 60
Views: 9073

Re: Are We Headed For A Passive Index Meltdown?

I recall that Scaramucci guy pushing this kind of FUD (fear, uncertainty and doubt).
by columbia
Sat Sep 22, 2018 6:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 1052
Views: 82788

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

Not that I would ever do it, but this seems like a good buying situation for commodities. Right, the last 10 years were constant buying opportunities as well. I remember a post several years ago were someone decided to buy more since it was a buying opportunity. Perhaps one day it will be true. I t...
by columbia
Fri Sep 21, 2018 6:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Diversify? Why Not 100% Global Stocks
Replies: 48
Views: 5742

Re: Why Diversify? Why Not 100% Global Stocks

Setting aside the not owning any bonds part, the rational reason for US investors to not carry a global cap weight is that currency risk is real and - more important - the market makes no guarantees that it will even out.

It might; but it might not. Beware those who guarantee the former happening.
by columbia
Thu Sep 20, 2018 6:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bad Investments Within Foundation
Replies: 6
Views: 489

Re: Bad Investments Within Foundation

This reminds me of the state pension plan, which I fortunately escaped: I have no doubt that the VG Balanced Index has and will outperform it (and without multiple layers of blood suckers taking their cut).
by columbia
Wed Sep 19, 2018 6:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: In defense of Hedge Funds
Replies: 19
Views: 1044

Re: In defense of Hedge Funds

They certainly have someone’s interest in mind...and it’s not yours.

Hedge Funds Call Time on Investors' Persistent Fee Squeeze
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bloomb ... s-are-over
by columbia
Wed Sep 19, 2018 1:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Other investment opportunities besides the stock market
Replies: 25
Views: 1886

Re: Other investment opportunities besides the stock market

As far as real estate, the closest I would want to get is the TIAA fund, although I’ve never bought it. In thinking about that fund, would it be completely impractical to offer a real estate state product with a constant NAV and the return varied on revenues and fluctuations in the property values? ...
by columbia
Wed Sep 19, 2018 5:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Corporate debt bubble?
Replies: 20
Views: 2400

Re: Corporate debt bubble?

Ron Scott wrote:
Wed Sep 19, 2018 5:33 am
The markets, we are told, are efficient so debt issues are already baked into prices so...no problem.
The global bond market is efficient but the global equity market isn’t? If certain premia/exploitable factors really do exist, it seems like the latter must be true.
by columbia
Wed Sep 19, 2018 4:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why I left Wealthfront
Replies: 40
Views: 11431

Re: Why I left Wealthfront

I dabbled a bit with Betterment and even trying to import to various lot data (and churn from TLH) into H&R Block was a significant hassle; no thanks.
by columbia
Tue Sep 18, 2018 5:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Other investment opportunities besides the stock market
Replies: 25
Views: 1886

Re: Other investment opportunities besides the stock market

Some will say rental properties, but that’s - of course - running a business.
by columbia
Tue Sep 18, 2018 5:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How can I buy ALIBABA and TENCENT stock?
Replies: 29
Views: 2537

Re: How can I buy ALIBABA and TENCENT stock?

How can I buy ALIBABA and TENCENT stock directly? I know for sure I'm not the only one interested in doing this. I want to DCA into these stocks over the next 5-10 years. These 2 stocks are 27% of this fund https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239619/ishares-msci-china-etf That's not a fully exposed...
by columbia
Mon Sep 17, 2018 4:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Disrupted Expectations
Replies: 53
Views: 6093

Re: Larry Swedroe: Disrupted Expectations

So how is this actionable?

Be prepared to save more and spend less (if retired)? That seems obvious, but my real question is how this might effect the equity risk premium.
by columbia
Sun Sep 16, 2018 7:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Age in Bonds - Still Recommended?
Replies: 142
Views: 10257

Re: Age in Bonds - Still Recommended?

I think it’s a perfectly reasonable choice to follow this glide path; switch to a 30/70 target fund or Wellesley Income around 70 and stay there for the duration.
by columbia
Sat Sep 15, 2018 9:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: COMING SOON: BOGLEHEADS PODCASTS
Replies: 362
Views: 17909

Re: COMING SOON: BOGLEHEADS PODCASTS

The furniture store employee story is something else. :sharebeer
by columbia
Thu Sep 13, 2018 1:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 1052
Views: 82788

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

Not that I would ever do it, but this seems like a good buying situation for commodities.
by columbia
Wed Sep 12, 2018 1:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard: Hedging international equities’ currency risk would have reduced portfolio volatility for US investors
Replies: 17
Views: 1793

Re: Vanguard: Hedging international equities’ currency risk would have reduced portfolio volatility for US investors

The VG Global Minimum Volatility fund is currency hedged and I presume that’s their test bed for hedging international equities.
by columbia
Tue Sep 11, 2018 7:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Boglehead explains the simplest way to manage your money
Replies: 18
Views: 5134

Re: A Boglehead explains the simplest way to manage your money

The important issue is how much is one actually benefitting from a complex portfolio. History clearly indicates: not much.
by columbia
Mon Sep 10, 2018 8:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cliff Asness: Liquid Alt Ragnarok?
Replies: 80
Views: 5182

Re: Cliff Asness: Liquid Alt Ragnarok?

An in depth look at AQR funds performance from early 2017, well before this “2018 rough patch" https://www.ifa.com/articles/deeper_look_performance/ summary: 67% (16 funds) have underperformed their respective benchmarks since inception, having delivered a NEGATIVE alpha 33% (8 funds) have outperfo...
by columbia
Mon Sep 10, 2018 8:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 1052
Views: 82788

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

I firmly agree with the above statement: “This trend seems so cultural”


US doesn’t have an exclusive market on tech innovation, but don’t look to Europe for competition in this sector.
by columbia
Sun Sep 09, 2018 9:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund
Replies: 1435
Views: 206384

Re: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund

I guess the detailed holdings of this fund are...a secret:
https://funds.aqr.com/our-funds/alterna ... ative-fund
by columbia
Fri Sep 07, 2018 5:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does market timing have to be perfect to be effective?
Replies: 35
Views: 2479

Re: Does market timing have to be perfect to be effective?

If one cashed out now, put everything in treasuries and stocks crashed in late 2019, I doubt that one would have regrets about their imperfect timing. So....no, to answer the question at hand.
by columbia
Thu Sep 06, 2018 8:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mutual Fund Fee Wars Will Encourage Bad Behavior
Replies: 26
Views: 2627

Re: Mutual Fund Fee Wars Will Encourage Bad Behavior

Low fees are good, and churning is bad. The rational thing to do is to buy and hold in a low-fee, broadly diversified fund. Maybe if Vanguard imposed a small fee - not a 200 to 500 basis point fee, but a 50 - 150 basis point fee - for buying and/or selling, it would discourage short term trading. I...
by columbia
Thu Sep 06, 2018 5:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: September 6,2018-Vanguard Introduces Low-Cost Total World Bond ETF
Replies: 48
Views: 5402

Re: September 6,2018-Vanguard Introduces Low-Cost Total World Bond ETF

In terms of ETFs of ETFs:

That’s how the currency hedged ETFs from iShares operate: they own the underlying index ETF (in question) + the currency hedge aspect. Check the holdings for HEFA:
https://www.ishares.com/us/products/259 ... i-eafe-etf
by columbia
Wed Sep 05, 2018 7:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 1052
Views: 82788

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

Increasingly on sale (especially EM); sometimes sale items are defects, mind you. ;)
by columbia
Wed Sep 05, 2018 5:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Fate of the Euro
Replies: 14
Views: 1652

Re: The Fate of the Euro

SE Asia is probably a better bet, but we shall see.
by columbia
Mon Sep 03, 2018 1:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 1052
Views: 82788

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

From the BH wiki: https://www.bogleheads.org/w/images/1/11/US-International.png Perhaps that should be updated? Either way, there wasn’t a marked difference in risk/return for holding anywhere from 20 to 50% international. It’s reasonable to assume that holding anywhere in that range for the future ...
by columbia
Mon Sep 03, 2018 10:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If the market is so hard to beat, why did a rapper beat it by 40%?
Replies: 61
Views: 3548

Re: If the market is so hard to beat, why did a rapper beat it by 40%?

I too have made a fair amount of money on those stocks..at market weight. ;)
by columbia
Mon Sep 03, 2018 8:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 1052
Views: 82788

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

Emerging theme in this thread (and a sentiment, which wasn’t particularly noticeable on BH even a year ago): US only investors don’t care what others do. Global cap investors argue that everyone *should* invest as they do. I can think of a number of seemingly unnecessary investment choices (crypto ...
by columbia
Mon Sep 03, 2018 8:13 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Walmart is not Amazon
Replies: 54
Views: 6734

Re: Walmart is not Amazon

Prime is fine service and I enjoy the access to the music and video libraries; plus the Amazon locker is handy, as I live in an area where leaving packages on the front stoop is a suboptimal idea.

I can’t imagine any scenario where I would switch my online ordering to Walmart.
by columbia
Mon Sep 03, 2018 7:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 1052
Views: 82788

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

Emerging theme in this thread (and a sentiment, which wasn’t particularly noticeable on BH even a year ago): US only investors don’t care what others do. Global cap investors argue that everyone *should* invest as they do. I can think of a number of seemingly unnecessary investment choices (crypto c...
by columbia
Sun Sep 02, 2018 4:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What constitutes a haystack? (for stocks)
Replies: 32
Views: 2467

Re: What constitutes a haystack? (for stocks)

There’s been no tangible difference between owning the “whole” US market and owning the S&P 500.
by columbia
Sun Sep 02, 2018 2:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: NYT - Caring for Aging Parents, With an Eye on the Broker Handling Their Savings
Replies: 26
Views: 2493

Re: Daughter discovers JP Morgan Churning Parents' retirement account

Independent of the graft described above, the financial services industry relies on people believing that they have some special wisdom unavailable to Joe Sixpack. I wince every time I hear my boss mention going to a meeting with his Edward Jones advisor. I can’t imagine the drag that has and will h...
by columbia
Sun Sep 02, 2018 12:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Call the Top!
Replies: 82
Views: 9329

Re: Call the Top!

k66 wrote:
Wed Aug 29, 2018 8:55 am
The Chart of Shame!

Image
Funny

Was surprised to not see Rob Arnott in the mix.
by columbia
Sat Sep 01, 2018 3:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 1052
Views: 82788

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

Pointing to returns/volatility from 1970-present as evidence that we can’t predict the future (and - as such - should hold global cap portfolio) is some pretty corkscrew logic. Either the past matters or it doesn’t - you can’t have it both ways.
by columbia
Sat Sep 01, 2018 8:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Portfolio Construction: Total World Stock + TIPS or Treasuries
Replies: 40
Views: 3285

Re: Portfolio Construction: Total World Stock + TIPS or Treasuries

I’ve seen the notion here that one doesn’t “need” TIPS unless you have less than 50% equities. There’s no right or wrong to that statement, but it seems like a reasonable guideline.
by columbia
Sat Sep 01, 2018 7:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 1052
Views: 82788

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

2. Performance: International stocks as a class have underperformed the US Market over the past 20 years... 5.66% vs 7.52% using Vanguard International Stock Index fund (VTIAX) and Vanguard Total Stock Market Fund (VTSAX), 1998-2017. My bold. International stocks aren't a 'class' - they are a colle...
by columbia
Fri Aug 31, 2018 11:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 1052
Views: 82788

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

If your main concern is total return, I suppose you could just invest in whichever type of equity you believe will have the best return. No one know that. However, most know which has the least chance of the most harmful outcome - unless we’re still pretending that investing in Russia and other sin...
by columbia
Thu Aug 30, 2018 9:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Diversification as important as ever in strong markets?
Replies: 5
Views: 736

Re: Diversification as important as ever in strong markets?

AerialWombat wrote:
Thu Aug 30, 2018 9:02 pm
columbia wrote:
Thu Aug 30, 2018 8:25 pm
Between stocks and bonds: absolutely.
...and real estate, guns, gold, ammunition, food, seed stock, stabilized gasoline......
I’m not a prepper ;) but everyone should pursue their path of choice. :)
by columbia
Thu Aug 30, 2018 8:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Diversification as important as ever in strong markets?
Replies: 5
Views: 736

Re: Diversification as important as ever in strong markets?

Between stocks and bonds: absolutely.

The rest is just nibbling around the corners.
by columbia
Wed Aug 29, 2018 8:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 1052
Views: 82788

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

That's a false dichotomy. You have more than two options.
Also known as a hypothetical.

This is a thought exercise: which choice would you make?
by columbia
Wed Aug 29, 2018 8:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 1052
Views: 82788

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

If I were required to pick either 100% US or 100% ex-US for life, I know where I’d place my roulette chip.
by columbia
Wed Aug 29, 2018 7:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 286
Views: 27863

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

oldzey wrote:
Wed Aug 29, 2018 2:26 am
Keep on soaring higher! :beer

Image
Hah! Takes me back my beer collecting days in the 70s.