Search found 713 matches

by columbia
Thu Jul 19, 2018 5:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Take Risk on Equity Side?
Replies: 55
Views: 3120

Re: Why Take Risk on Equity Side?

Here’s a comparison since 1979: 1/3 stocks, 1/3 treasuries, 1/3 junk bonds Vs. 1/2 stocks, 1/2 treasuries https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-asset-class-allocation?s=y&mode=2&startYear=1972&endYear=2018&initialAmount=10000&annualOperation=0&annualAdjustment=0&inflationAdjusted=true&annualP...
by columbia
Wed Jul 18, 2018 9:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Decrease International Growth Fund Admiral and buy Total International Stock Index Adm
Replies: 12
Views: 1056

Re: Decrease International Growth Fund Admiral and buy Total International Stock Index Adm

While I understand the desire to index and to take advantage of lower fees and the "random walk" principle, I believe that international investing might be somewhat different, and that professional management could be worthwhile in order to avoid obviously poor choices, for example. The Vanguard In...
by columbia
Mon Jul 16, 2018 4:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: The Drums Of (Trade) War
Replies: 7
Views: 1309

Re: Larry Swedroe: The Drums Of (Trade) War

International stocks would do better than U.S. stocks
Why so?
by columbia
Thu Jul 12, 2018 7:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: COMING SOON: BOGLEHEADS PODCASTS
Replies: 341
Views: 10365

Re: COMING SOON: BOGLEHEADS PODCASTS

Haven’t trad through the thread, but hoping it will be available through Tune In radio platform. Paul Merriman is. :)
by columbia
Thu Jul 12, 2018 5:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "The Fund is classified as non-diversified"
Replies: 44
Views: 5044

Re: "The Fund is classified as non-diversified"

Classic case of you’d better have a REALLY good reason to deviate away from total market/SP500. Results since January 2015: https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&timePeriod=4&startYear=2015&firstMonth=1&endYear=2018&lastMonth=12&endDate=07%2F11%2F2018&initialAmount=10000&annualO...
by columbia
Wed Jul 11, 2018 2:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Great Investor has only one word of advice
Replies: 7
Views: 1274

Re: A Great Investor has only one word of advice

He had three funds, nice and simple. Then he changed the allocation by replacing the large cap ETF with a half a dozen industrial companies that he believes will benefit from the rebuilding efforts after last year’s hurricane season. https://www.google.com/amp/s/seekingalpha.com/amp/article/4144456...
by columbia
Sun Jul 08, 2018 11:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International Questions and Benefit to Vanguard
Replies: 5
Views: 348

Re: International Questions and Benefit to Vanguard

I wonder what the global cap weight would be, if all of the US based target date funds skipped international all along and now. I’m sure some crafty person here could run the approximate numbers. ;)
by columbia
Sun Jul 08, 2018 8:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wellesley alternative for taxable acct.?
Replies: 25
Views: 2856

Re: Wellesley alternative for taxable acct.?

Would the tax benefits of avoiding Wellesley outweigh the simplicity of just owning Wellesley? That’s a non-math question, of course.

Only you can answer that for yourself.
by columbia
Sat Jul 07, 2018 3:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Morningstar: prepare for a lost decade for U.S. stocks
Replies: 198
Views: 18066

Re: Morningstar: prepare for a lost decade for U.S. stocks

US stocks are highly valued and, as such, expected future returns are lower. Unless we’ve entered a magic new era and that’s no longer true...I don’t think we have.
by columbia
Fri Jul 06, 2018 8:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Morningstar: prepare for a lost decade for U.S. stocks
Replies: 198
Views: 18066

Re: Morningstar: prepare for a lost decade for U.S. stocks

This paper from Vanguard research suggests that historically 30-40% Int'l diversification has been ideal, though on 10-year periods the ideal Int'l allocation has varied between 0% and 70%. This other paper from Vanguard shows that, for 10-year returns, the PE ratio and the CAPE have had some (very...
by columbia
Fri Jul 06, 2018 6:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Worst U.S. Portfolio Disasters — A Historical Comparison
Replies: 66
Views: 5547

Re: The Worst U.S. Portfolio Disasters — A Historical Comparison

It seems like a good argument for a 50/50 portfolio over the long run.
by columbia
Fri Jul 06, 2018 6:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Morningstar: prepare for a lost decade for U.S. stocks
Replies: 198
Views: 18066

Re: Morningstar: prepare for a lost decade for U.S. stocks

I don’t think that it’s controversial to believe that returns in the next 10 years will be lower than the last decade. Prices do matter.

What do you (or don’t do) is quite another story.
by columbia
Thu Jul 05, 2018 8:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: There will be a recession and market downturn
Replies: 58
Views: 3215

Re: There will be a recession and market downturn

Undoubtedly.

If I knew when, I’d short the market a month beforehand.
by columbia
Wed Jul 04, 2018 11:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can you just hold VOO VTI and call it a day?
Replies: 10
Views: 1032

Re: Can you just hold VOO VTI and call it a day?

Is that good enough for all equity portfolio? It’s perfectly reasonable. Whether it’s the optimal long term choice (for your equities) is unknowable. Some will tell you why they think that adding international is desirable. Others will tell you why you *should* do so. I find the latter to be strang...
by columbia
Wed Jul 04, 2018 8:59 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Tech tilt as hedge against rising cost of living in Bay Area
Replies: 37
Views: 2863

Re: Tech tilt as hedge against rising cost of living in Bay Area

drk wrote:
Tue Jul 03, 2018 8:57 pm
Is your employment not exposed to the local economy?
This.

If anything, it *could* be a reason to diversify away from tech. Having said, knowing that you can’t predict the future and just owning SP500 or TSM is the financially agnostic option.
by columbia
Wed Jul 04, 2018 7:50 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Expected returns for 80/20 stock bond for next 10 years.
Replies: 169
Views: 12088

Re: Expected returns for 80/20 stock bond for next 10 years.

I’m not trying to be negative. I’m trying to explain there are real economic reasons why the next ten years probably will not be like the last ten. They never are. How are we going to get to 5% nominal? Crash followed by recovery, steady low, etc. I think I can do better than 5% since I am still ac...
by columbia
Mon Jul 02, 2018 5:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Equity Risk Premium over Two Centuries, 1825-2017
Replies: 24
Views: 2257

Re: Equity Risk Premium over Two Centuries, 1825-2017

I can get 4.25% from my TIAA Traditional RC account. If I’m properly understanding the above numbers, the risk of stocks make them seem like a pretty unattractive option for new purchases in my 403b.
by columbia
Mon Jul 02, 2018 6:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Equity Risk Premium over Two Centuries, 1825-2017
Replies: 24
Views: 2257

Re: Equity Risk Premium over Two Centuries, 1825-2017

It's debatable whether the high ERP in the 1900-1968 will ever repeat, if US equity performance reverts to the international mean and central banks in the developed world avoid the high to hyperinflation of earlier times. Good observations. I agree it's unlikely we'll see out-of-control inflation i...
by columbia
Sun Jul 01, 2018 12:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: You Can Market Time At Valuation Extremes
Replies: 64
Views: 7360

Re: You Can Market Time At Valuation Extremes

Shiller PE: Current: 32.30 +0.02 (0.06%) 4:00 pm EDT, Fri Jun 29 Mean: 16.85 Median: 16.15 Min: 4.78 Max: 44.19 That 3.10% expected earnings for the next 10 years? Certainly not great. Anyway, I guess you could try to time it, but that really depends on one’s confidence that they would correctly tim...
by columbia
Sun Jul 01, 2018 10:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emerging Markets in Bear Territory
Replies: 52
Views: 7134

Re: Emerging Markets in Bear Territory

Disappointing but true. Last year EM had increased business activity and exports. This year countries with positive equity markets are held back by exchange rates. Why China is down 20% I don't know. No info. Probably look at an international quality index I ran across, if I ever have the time for ...
by columbia
Sun Jul 01, 2018 8:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Hedge funds basically scams?
Replies: 36
Views: 3079

Re: Are Hedge funds basically scams?

jebmke wrote:
Sun Jul 01, 2018 8:27 am
Hedge fund managers seem to do quite well. My business school is named after one (Tepper).
Fellow Tartan :beer
by columbia
Sun Jul 01, 2018 7:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do Advisers Add $$$ Value?
Replies: 71
Views: 5473

Re: Do Advisers Add $$$ Value?

. Costs matter (no matter what anyone tells you), they are guaranteed. A 1% advisor fee can account for 25% of your withdrawal rate. Putting it another way, in this case, for every $100 you withdraw, $25 goes to the pocket of the advisor, $75 goes to you. Robert . Says it all AFAIC. ... and then th...
by columbia
Sat Jun 30, 2018 10:11 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Using the Total Bond Fund in a rising rate environment
Replies: 72
Views: 8630

Re: Using the Total Bond Fund in a rising rate environment

Is it legal for the plan administrator to be:

1. Providing investment “wisdom”
2. Determining plan offerings, based on his “expertise”
by columbia
Sat Jun 30, 2018 8:13 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Feel like I'm sinking money into international
Replies: 100
Views: 10779

Re: Feel like I'm sinking money into international

No one here is going to pay your bills in retirement, so I’d go with your gut instinct - it’s just a mattter of determining what that really is.
by columbia
Sat Jun 30, 2018 7:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emerging Markets in Bear Territory
Replies: 52
Views: 7134

Re: Emerging Markets in Bear Territory

I can’t get to those links, but how prevalent are corporate pension funds in EM companies? If you don’t offer a pension plan, it can’t be underfunded...
by columbia
Fri Jun 29, 2018 6:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [403b fiduciary lawsuits: MIT Yale NYU Duke Hopkins Penn Vanderbilt Emory Columbia]
Replies: 75
Views: 7832

Re: GWU 403b lawsuit and TIAA Trad Ann

These lawsuits are in the air. Different issues, but University of Chicago settled in May: https://www.plansponsor.com/university-chicago-settles-403b-plans-excessive-fee-suit/ Until two years ago, my TIAA plan had a SP500 fund with a .32% cost; it was replaced with VFIAX. Total international and ex...
by columbia
Thu Jun 28, 2018 3:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: History of Protectionism and Stock Returns, 1825-2015
Replies: 19
Views: 2103

Re: History of Protectionism and Stock Returns, 1825-2015

One wonders the specifics of his advice.
by columbia
Thu Jun 28, 2018 6:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Financial Newspapers & Publications
Replies: 36
Views: 2661

Re: Financial Newspapers & Publications

02nz wrote:
Wed Jun 27, 2018 8:58 pm
The Financial Times, IMHO the best newspaper out there.
100% agree.
by columbia
Wed Jun 27, 2018 6:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is there a reversion to the mean for everything?
Replies: 29
Views: 1783

Re: Is there a reversion to the mean for everything?

Elephant in the room for this type of conversation: international has been a dog, but will eventually roar past US, because of a reversion scenario. That’s a curious stance (actually, it’s a repeated prediction) to take, if the rationale for a heavily (if not global) international portfolio is that ...
by columbia
Wed Jun 27, 2018 11:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are we just way over complicating this?
Replies: 113
Views: 7164

Re: Are we just way over complicating this?

Wouldn't a balanced fund cause issues if the stock market was down and you needed to withdraw money? With separate funds you could withdraw from the fixed income fund but with the balanced you would necessarily by pulling from both stocks and bonds at the same time. Balanced funds are rebalanced al...
by columbia
Wed Jun 27, 2018 11:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When does purchasing equities lose its marginal utility?
Replies: 48
Views: 2539

Re: When does purchasing equities lose its marginal utility?

I don’t think that the issue is about purchasing new equities pre-retirement, but rather decisions to sell them and reduce equity exposure. That rebalancing *might* involve buying fewer equities, but not necessarily. A more interesting question/conundrum is whether one thinks that there is a diminis...
by columbia
Wed Jun 27, 2018 8:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Geopolitical events [Impact of recent trade policy decisions on the market]
Replies: 22
Views: 2204

Re: Geopolitical events [Impact of recent trade policy decisions on the market]

When I have time, I'm interested look at the historical relationship between the level of globalization and its impact on global asset returns — but that will have to be another separate post.
Please do
by columbia
Tue Jun 26, 2018 8:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is day trading profitable?
Replies: 36
Views: 3137

Re: Is day trading profitable?

It can be quite profitable, if you’re a brokerage charging a fee for each trade. :moneybag
by columbia
Tue Jun 26, 2018 5:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Geopolitical events [Impact of recent trade policy decisions on the market]
Replies: 22
Views: 2204

Re: Geopolitical events

The most important discussions on a forum such as this are: 1. Figure out your risk tolerance re:stocks vs bonds (and how that might change in the future) 2. Keep costs as low as possible 3. Determine whether you think that international is necessary, desirable or irrelevant Everything else is gravy...
by columbia
Tue Jun 26, 2018 5:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Geopolitical events [Impact of recent trade policy decisions on the market]
Replies: 22
Views: 2204

Re: Geopolitical events

Pick an asset allocation that allows you to sleep at night and just stay the course.
Amen
by columbia
Sun Jun 24, 2018 9:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P P/E Ratio
Replies: 50
Views: 3256

Re: S&P P/E Ratio

What about international, that everyone keeps saying is so much cheaper? Is international cheaper? I don't think so. I think it is a misspecification. It is not cheap international you are seeing, it is the fact that value companies have lower PE ratios. US companies skew heavily towards growth. He...
by columbia
Sun Jun 24, 2018 2:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Liability Matching Portfolios 20% failure rate?
Replies: 19
Views: 1401

Re: Liability Matching Portfolios 20% failure rate?

If the goal of retirement savings is to insure that the retiree doesn’t run out of money
If that were my goal - and it will be, when I retire - then using SPIAs is the way to go.

Note that never running out money AND leaving a legacy is a different goal.
by columbia
Sun Jun 24, 2018 11:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anti Indexing investment
Replies: 15
Views: 1558

Re: Anti Indexing investment

The “bottom” 20% of the US market:
https://investor.vanguard.com/mutual-fu ... file/VEXAX
by columbia
Sun Jun 24, 2018 7:48 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: VBIAX vs. VWELX [Vanguard Balanced Index vs. Wellington]
Replies: 21
Views: 2443

Re: VBIAX vs. VWELX [Vanguard Balanced Index vs. Wellington]

I think they are both outstanding funds.

Perhaps just split your money between the two of them, to minimize the chance of future regret (over having made the “wrong” - and that can’t be known now - choice).
by columbia
Sat Jun 23, 2018 5:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Heavy in equities?
Replies: 46
Views: 4695

Re: Heavy in equities?

Given current valuations: If one were (oddly) required to sell all of their equity holdings, with no restrictions on subsequent actions: would you buy back into the stock market and at what percentage? I don’t know how I would react, but I suspect that it would be at a level lower than my current AA...
by columbia
Fri Jun 22, 2018 6:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why won't Vanguard drop VTI & VOO expense to 0.03?
Replies: 39
Views: 3611

Re: Why won't Vanguard drop VTI & VOO expense to 0.03?

The 2018 “upgrades” to their website have made it pretty unusable, so I certainly question some of VG’s decision making.

Kidding aside: they destroyed the usability of the website.
by columbia
Fri Jun 22, 2018 5:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Steep rise in "Old Age Dependency Ratio"
Replies: 15
Views: 2022

Re: Steep rise in "Old Age Dependency Ratio"

If this is a real/pending issue, it is actionable:

Immigration
by columbia
Fri Jun 22, 2018 4:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Factor Investing Makes Someone Money, But Maybe Not You
Replies: 126
Views: 9083

Re: Factor Investing Makes Someone Money, But Maybe Not You

I “get” the idea using the momentum factor, but have any real world funds been around long enough to demonstrate that it works (or doesn’t)?
by columbia
Wed Jun 20, 2018 9:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is Mr. Bogle so against investing internationally?
Replies: 24
Views: 2930

Re: Why is Mr. Bogle so against investing internationally?

Currency risk is real; I don’t know that thinking that (retired) people can out-live it is the best stance.
by columbia
Wed Jun 20, 2018 8:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is Mr. Bogle so against investing internationally?
Replies: 24
Views: 2930

Re: Why is Mr. Bogle so against investing internationally?

It used to be that a small basket of blue-chip dividend paying mega-cap stocks was the way to go. The rest of the market was unnecessary. Then it was the S&P 500 - the rest of the market including those speculative small caps was unnecessary. Then it was total US stock market - the rest of the worl...
by columbia
Wed Jun 20, 2018 7:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Effect of Index funds on Market Efficiency
Replies: 19
Views: 1253

Re: Effect of Index funds on Market Efficiency

Since there will always be certain people who believe that they smarter than the market, there will always be enough traders to keep the market efficient. At any given time, some will be smarter, but at the expense of those who are failing to be at that particular moment. Holding the market is the n...
by columbia
Wed Jun 20, 2018 2:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: General Electric booted from Dow Jones Industrial Average
Replies: 52
Views: 6373

Re: General Electric booted from Dow Jones Industrial Average

wrongfunds wrote:
Wed Jun 20, 2018 1:39 pm
The Wizard wrote:
Tue Jun 19, 2018 5:04 pm
At some point, GE could be removed from the S&P 500 if it's still a separate entity by then.
That will be impressive...
At some later point, GE as a brand will be purchased by a Chinese (or Indian) conglomerate and circle of life will be then be complete.
For example: Toshiba/Westinghouse