Search found 1717 matches

by columbia
Mon Aug 19, 2019 7:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Negative Interest Rates in U.S.
Replies: 135
Views: 9904

Re: Negative Interest Rates in U.S.

If interest rates were negative, why take the risk of them then rising? It seems that even a negative rate money market account would be a better option than bonds, until short term treasuries go above 0%.

I’m sure there’s a flaw in my logic. :P
by columbia
Sun Aug 18, 2019 3:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Zero (or Negative) Interest Rates Could Someday Make Sense
Replies: 85
Views: 5588

Re: Why Zero (or Negative) Interest Rates Could Someday Make Sense

Would the Treasury Department continue to offer TIPS, were nominal stocks [ bonds? ] be negative for a sustained period of time? Ha, interesting question. It's difficult to imagine a future where the risk of unexpected high inflation is completely gone and the insurance provided by TIPS is consider...
by columbia
Sat Aug 17, 2019 11:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Zero (or Negative) Interest Rates Could Someday Make Sense
Replies: 85
Views: 5588

Re: Why Zero (or Negative) Interest Rates Could Someday Make Sense

Would the Treasury Department continue to offer TIPS, were nominal stocks be negative for a sustained period of time?
by columbia
Sat Aug 17, 2019 9:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bloomberg: U.S. Weighs Selling 50- and 100-Year Bonds
Replies: 25
Views: 2523

Re: Bloomberg: U.S. Weighs Selling 50- and 100-Year Bonds

Just imagine a 75 year duration STRIPS fund...talk about volatility.
by columbia
Sat Aug 17, 2019 6:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The value of international stocks, in pictures
Replies: 74
Views: 12940

Re: The value of international stocks, in pictures

These are all historical, backwards-looking results that have limited predictive value. As has been said before, the rear view mirror is much clearer than the windshield. I still invest internationally, despite recent performance, in the belief that more diversification will pay off in the long run...
by columbia
Fri Aug 16, 2019 4:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 year treasury yield drops below 2% for the first time in history
Replies: 41
Views: 5313

Re: 30 year treasury yield drops below 2% for the first time in history

I think anybody here at http://www.bogleheads.org reasoning using Modern Monetary Theory , MMT, just like anybody reasoning based on the Austrian School of Economics , should out of basic courtesy say so at the beginning of their post. Both are very much non-orthodox. That doesn't necessarily mean ...
by columbia
Fri Aug 16, 2019 7:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When should I invest on Vanguard margin?
Replies: 24
Views: 1474

Re: When should I invest on Vanguard margin?

One would probably be better off waiting for the next crash and then buying a 2x or 3x stock fund at the “bottom.” The trick being able to figure out when that is.
by columbia
Thu Aug 15, 2019 7:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Lawsuit suggests MIT allowed Fidelity to pack retirement plans with high-fee funds
Replies: 54
Views: 4437

Re: Lawsuit suggests MIT allowed Fidelity to pack retirement plans with high-fee funds

Here’s the options available at my alma mater (and former employer), which certainly competes with MIT for students and faculty: https://i.ibb.co/y84KZx3/F35490-E0-FDA7-47-F6-8-BEB-CAFD469017-A0.jpg That seems perfectly reasonable; the brokerage options are likely ignored by > 95%. This is how emplo...
by columbia
Thu Aug 15, 2019 5:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: GE shares tank more than 13% after Madoff whistleblower calls it a ‘bigger fraud than Enron'
Replies: 93
Views: 9170

Re: GE shares tank more than 13% after Madoff whistleblower calls it a ‘bigger fraud than Enron'

I did a little checking because I know GE just licenses their brand name to a lot of other companies to slap on cheaper items. I was surprised to see that "GE Appliances" is no longer owned by General Electric, but was sold to Haier (Chinese) in 2016. The deal included the rights to use the GE name...
by columbia
Thu Aug 15, 2019 4:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Treasury 2-10 year yield curve has inverted!
Replies: 104
Views: 9226

Re: Treasury 2-10 year yield curve has inverted!

Stocks up today, but LTT way up.

I presume some folks are extending the duration of some of their bond holdings. These things become a self-fulfilling prophecy after a certain point.
by columbia
Thu Aug 15, 2019 12:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Lawsuit suggests MIT allowed Fidelity to pack retirement plans with high-fee funds
Replies: 54
Views: 4437

Re: Lawsuit suggests MIT allowed Fidelity to pack retirement plans with high-fee funds

The thing that was very disturbing when I learned about it--I was too dumb to figure it out at the time--was that Fidelity was hiding plan expenses in the expense ratios. That is to say, if you look at the plan literature, the expense ratios for each ticker symbol were higher than if you looked up ...
by columbia
Wed Aug 14, 2019 6:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Has anybody bought Wellington,Wellesley,LifeStra and just said the heck with the taxes or is that just dumb in taxable?
Replies: 48
Views: 2997

Re: Has anybody bought Wellington,Wellesley,LifeStra and just said the heck with the taxes or is that just dumb in taxa

I started investing in the 90's and the selection of low cost funds was limited, and you ran out of t401k space in a hurry. Lots of options now but back then, Vanguard funds were the lowest cost funds around, even Wellington. Vanguard Balanced index was only 4 years old when I started. I have no id...
by columbia
Wed Aug 14, 2019 5:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cheap Long-Term Leverage for International Stocks
Replies: 8
Views: 617

Re: Cheap Long-Term Leverage for International Stocks

Are there cheap long-term loans that could be used to invest in International Stocks? I'd like to take advantage of long-term interest rates to lever up on stock investments. The idea would be similar to leveraging mortgages on rental properties, only I'd like to use this for stocks. International,...
by columbia
Wed Aug 14, 2019 5:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Treasury 2-10 year yield curve has inverted!
Replies: 104
Views: 9226

Re: Treasury 2-10 year yield curve has inverted!

The inability of people to make correct predictions is well known.

Arthur Laffer, June 2009:

Get Ready for Inflation and Higher Interest Rates
https://www.wsj.com/articles/SB124458888993599879
by columbia
Tue Aug 13, 2019 7:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Switch AA 10-year to 2-year Treasuries?
Replies: 60
Views: 3662

Re: Switch AA 10-year to 2-year Treasuries?

You could certainly invoke Pascal's Wager to justify 2 year notes instead of the 10 year bonds. In other words the risk going with 2 year is re-investment risk if rates fall further - while the risk with the 10 year is inflation risk if there is a sharp rise in inflation - arguably more threatening...
by columbia
Tue Aug 13, 2019 6:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ray Dalio bullish on China (China market cap to overtake US in 2030?)
Replies: 43
Views: 3233

Re: Ray Dalio bullish on China (China market cap to overtake US in 2030?)

Just one data point from a random internet poster, but I will not intentionally invest in anything related to China. I was involved in businesses in China for 20+ years, and there is simply no "rule of law". I saw 99 year leases with the government broken twice. Once after just 3 years! Rules and r...
by columbia
Tue Aug 13, 2019 5:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: this time it's different
Replies: 70
Views: 6503

Re: this time it's different

Who knows.

I do know that thinking that the present is bound to once again be like the past is a baseless prediction.
by columbia
Tue Aug 13, 2019 2:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Domestic returns next 10 years
Replies: 45
Views: 2937

Re: Domestic returns next 10 years

10 year projections are always rooted in the idea that there won’t be a market downturn. That’s a poor assumption.
by columbia
Tue Aug 13, 2019 6:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ray Dalio bullish on China (China market cap to overtake US in 2030?)
Replies: 43
Views: 3233

Re: Ray Dalio bullish on China (China market cap to overtake US in 2030?)

atdharris wrote:
Mon Aug 12, 2019 9:59 pm
How are people gaining exposure to China? Through EM funds or buying a Chinese specific ETF? I tilt towards EM through VWO currently.
FLCH is a relatively cheap option for those wanting a dedicated China fund:
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/FLCH
by columbia
Tue Aug 13, 2019 3:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 387
Views: 11128

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]

Thank you for bringing attention to the NTSX fund. Most of us haven't heard of it. Looks like it launched in 2018 and currently has about $5m in assets, while the PIMCO fund launched over ten years ago. Still, it looks look a very promising option. These two funds are extremely different from each ...
by columbia
Mon Aug 12, 2019 7:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What would investors ever choose arbitrary allocation of US/nonUS stocks?
Replies: 55
Views: 2849

Re: What would investors ever choose arbitrary allocation of US/nonUS stocks?

Beware: Holding 10x the global cap of your home country might give some folks here an aneurism. :P
by columbia
Mon Aug 12, 2019 6:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What would investors ever choose arbitrary allocation of US/nonUS stocks?
Replies: 55
Views: 2849

Re: What would investors ever choose arbitrary allocation of US/nonUS stocks?

You’re obviously ok with the “bias”, it seems. I'm definitely fine with it. Most Canadians have a much higher home bias in their portfolios. Let me ask you: How would you feel if you had to invest 97% of your money abroad in foreign equities and foreign fixed income? Personally, I would have troubl...
by columbia
Mon Aug 12, 2019 6:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What would investors ever choose arbitrary allocation of US/nonUS stocks?
Replies: 55
Views: 2849

Re: What would investors ever choose arbitrary allocation of US/nonUS stocks?

If you live in Canada, Vanguard will sell you a global fund which is 30% Canada . https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/VEQT:CN They do not appear to offer Canadians a version of VT. I think I know why that is. VEQT is one among five Asset Allocation ETFs (ranging from 100/0 to 20/80 stocks/bonds in step...
by columbia
Mon Aug 12, 2019 5:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What would investors ever choose arbitrary allocation of US/nonUS stocks?
Replies: 55
Views: 2849

Re: What would investors ever choose arbitrary allocation of US/nonUS stocks?

If you live in Canada, Vanguard will sell you a global fund which is 30% Canada.

https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/VEQT:CN

They do not appear to offer Canadians a version of VT.

I think I know why that is.
by columbia
Mon Aug 12, 2019 5:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What would investors ever choose arbitrary allocation of US/nonUS stocks?
Replies: 55
Views: 2849

Re: What would investors ever choose arbitrary allocation of US/nonUS stocks?

Why do some folks get fired up about how others choose to invest their money? It’s rather odd.
by columbia
Mon Aug 12, 2019 5:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Negative Interest Rates in U.S.
Replies: 135
Views: 9904

Re: Negative Interest Rates in U.S.

if rates go to zero, then stocks are very cheap. So we should all be investing in European stocks, right? Or are rates there below zero because some of their largest economies (UK, Germany, Italy) are in recession? And what happens to US stocks when the US enters recession, as well? Or is thought t...
by columbia
Mon Aug 12, 2019 10:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If you think oil prices will drop where would you invest?
Replies: 66
Views: 3179

Re: If you think oil prices will drop where would you invest?

Today.... GM, Volkswagen Say Goodbye to Hybrid Vehicles Toyota, Ford plan to keep hybrids as core part of their lineups, showing split in auto industry https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.wsj.com/amp/articles/gm-volkswagen-say-goodbye-to-hybrid-vehicles-11565602200 Hybrids are already on the way out, i...
by columbia
Mon Aug 12, 2019 10:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The One-Fund Portfolio as a default suggestion
Replies: 63
Views: 5740

Re: The One-Fund Portfolio as a default suggestion

willthrill81 wrote:
Mon Aug 12, 2019 10:20 am
The best investment strategy for a given investor is very likely the one that they can stick with no matter what.
“Ding ding ding. We have a winner.”
by columbia
Sun Aug 11, 2019 6:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Negative Interest Rates in U.S.
Replies: 135
Views: 9904

Re: Negative Interest Rates in U.S.

For those not convinced that negative interest rates could show up in the U.S. at some point, PIMCO has an article this month discussing the drivers behind the long-term decline in global rates: Interest Rates: Naturally Negative? We believe central banks are not the villains but rather the victims...
by columbia
Sun Aug 11, 2019 8:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If you think oil prices will drop where would you invest?
Replies: 66
Views: 3179

Re: If you think oil prices will drop where would you invest?

Wherever i look or read i see articles talking about sales explosion in electric cars all over the world. Sooner or later in the long run, this will depress oil prices. This is inevitable. If you believe 10% that oil prices will decrease big time say in 10 years, where would you invest to get the m...
by columbia
Sat Aug 10, 2019 5:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Inflation killing my Money Market Account?
Replies: 30
Views: 3436

Re: Is Inflation killing my Money Market Account?

What’s “killing it” - if that’s even true - is the taxes you are or will eventually pay on it. Your MM should vaguely keep pace with inflation.
by columbia
Sat Aug 10, 2019 2:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What do you think about this global 10 fund portfolio?
Replies: 14
Views: 1336

Re: What do you think about this global 10 fund portfolio?

It’s a lot easier to just own something like VSMGX and spend more time with the kids.
by columbia
Sat Aug 10, 2019 12:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Risk of International Bond Investing
Replies: 24
Views: 2951

Re: The Risk of International Bond Investing

Do I think that a number of the countries represented in BNDX could default? Yes, that’s certainly conceivable. https://investor.vanguard.com/etf/profile/portfolio/bndx I do not think that about US treasuries, so I would expect to receive a greater total return from BNDX, if I were to invest in it. ...
by columbia
Sat Aug 10, 2019 9:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The fallacy of Dollar Cost Averaging
Replies: 101
Views: 8389

Re: The fallacy of Dollar Cost Averaging

The advantage of DCA over lump sum is not a mathematical theorem. It is just a tendency, historical observation, and recommendation. A theorem is true now, true in the past, and true forever. A mathematical rigor does not apply to investment except taxes as long as they do not change. Any fancy arg...
by columbia
Thu Aug 08, 2019 5:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: First 20% of bonds in long-term Treasuries
Replies: 110
Views: 6772

Re: First 20% of bonds in long-term Treasuries

Presumably created to sell to institutions, pension funds, etc. Vanguard has three flavors of the Extended Duration Treasury fund: VEDIX, min purchase $100M VEDTX, min purchase $5M EDV, no min purchase Guess which fund class has the most assets? No idea what the first two are. I thought we were tal...
by columbia
Thu Aug 08, 2019 5:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: First 20% of bonds in long-term Treasuries
Replies: 110
Views: 6772

Re: First 20% of bonds in long-term Treasuries

Presumably created to sell to institutions, pension funds, etc.
by columbia
Wed Aug 07, 2019 8:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Mr. Bogle prefers U.S stocks
Replies: 241
Views: 16520

Re: Why Mr. Bogle prefers U.S stocks

While I get that the S&P 500 consists of multinational companies with international revenues, I think it's very risky to have zero China exposure. Why China specifically? Besides being another world power, it also has the ability to be self-sufficient. One seemingly esoteric thing to note, but is a...
by columbia
Wed Aug 07, 2019 7:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: First 20% of bonds in long-term Treasuries
Replies: 110
Views: 6772

Re: First 20% of bonds in long-term Treasuries

One could also say that one's money above long term expenses, should be allocated at their heir's age allocation, rather than one's own. Lots of options for bonds or stocks. If that’s the goal, then fooling around with bonds wouldn’t make much sense. Just put the rest in stocks. I’ll note that is n...
by columbia
Tue Aug 06, 2019 6:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 11678
Views: 2011323

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Again, the 3 T's at work again today: tweets, tariffs, and trade. We are in a trade war with China, don't want to get political here but it might not be such a bad thing. US Companies might discover that things really can be made here in the United States and production will also shift to friendlie...
by columbia
Tue Aug 06, 2019 5:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is anyone running 50/50 stock bond who is younger?
Replies: 45
Views: 4304

Re: Is anyone running 50/50 stock bond who is younger?

It’s an excellent regret minimization tactic.
by columbia
Mon Aug 05, 2019 6:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 11678
Views: 2011323

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

I see that a prominent China ETF (FLCH) was down 4.24% today. I don’t have any direct exposure to that country, but today felt a bit scary.
by columbia
Mon Aug 05, 2019 5:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 11678
Views: 2011323

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

I’m had already planned to watch “The Big Short” this evening. :shock: :o
by columbia
Mon Aug 05, 2019 12:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 11678
Views: 2011323

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

People holding China ETFs are the lambs at the slaughter...
by columbia
Mon Aug 05, 2019 8:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Super rich are selling stocks...
Replies: 13
Views: 3405

Re: The Super rich are selling stocks...

Even if true, that means people are buying them.

So....so?
by columbia
Mon Aug 05, 2019 8:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Balanced funds with rebalance bands
Replies: 5
Views: 498

Re: Balanced funds with rebalance bands

The equity percentage of Wellington floats based on management discretion (and obviously market conditions). Something like that is about as close as you will get in retail situation.
by columbia
Sun Aug 04, 2019 10:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Meb Faber/Cambria/Trinity Funds
Replies: 66
Views: 10246

Re: Meb Faber/Cambria/Trinity Funds

...It is hard to figure out how he actually invest his own money from the podcast... I can't find the archived copy in the archive.org Wayback Machine--"his" website seems to have morphed from mebanefaber.com to mebfaber.com to worldbeta.com... and he was involved in something called the "Ivy Portf...
by columbia
Sat Aug 03, 2019 4:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jack Bogle - Two Fund Portfolio
Replies: 121
Views: 24798

Re: Jack Bogle - Two Fund Portfolio

With international investments performing below U.S. for a while it appears that more and more Two Fund Portfolio posts are appearing. In my opinion this is an excellent strategy. Pick a stock fund, pick a bond bond. Ignore the demagogues. Simplicity! Yes, I finally achieved it myself. It’s great. 😀
by columbia
Fri Aug 02, 2019 8:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Mr. Bogle prefers U.S stocks
Replies: 241
Views: 16520

Re: Why Mr. Bogle prefers U.S stocks

As far as I can tell, the arguments for higher international allocations for U.S. investors seems to be performance chasing (based on various forecasts of future returns), a believe that they can find an optimal mix with some uncorrelated "diversification benefit" (despite no way of knowing what wi...