Search found 1486 matches

by columbia
Thu May 23, 2019 9:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: just a general comment about "too conservative" investors here
Replies: 139
Views: 11802

Re: just a general comment about "too conservative" investors here

If someone has a user registration newer than 2009 I pretty much assume they don't really know what they're talking about (unless it becomes clear they are just a newcomer to Bogleheads, not investing in general). If you've never experienced a severe multi-year downturn you are by definition an ine...
by columbia
Thu May 23, 2019 6:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why not non traded REIT such as yield tree?
Replies: 25
Views: 1642

Re: Why not non traded REIT such as yield tree?

I have a general rule of thumb that any investment that needs to be advertised is a loser. Why would they pay you 15 percent when they could issue bonds for 4 percent and make the money themselves? Which reminds me of those companies hawking physical gold: If it’s needed for the coming crisis, why ...
by columbia
Thu May 23, 2019 5:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Active Mgmt Whiffs On Factors
Replies: 18
Views: 1442

Re: Larry Swedroe: Active Mgmt Whiffs On Factors

It seems like these factor funds rely on someone’s “system” (like at the race track), no matter how rules based, being able to deliver something based on past number crunching.

Is that really a good idea?
by columbia
Wed May 22, 2019 10:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is the Global Portfolio the Least Risky? Lowest risk adjusted return?
Replies: 22
Views: 1709

Re: Is the Global Portfolio the Least Risky? Lowest risk adjusted return?

Many appear to believe that global cap will yield the most in the long run. That would imply that it’s the riskiest.

I don’t about the first, but certainly think it’s the riskiest for US investors.
by columbia
Wed May 22, 2019 6:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Don't add currency risk on top of equity risk
Replies: 59
Views: 3610

Re: Don't add currency risk on top of equity risk

I've yet to see a thoughtful or quantitative analysis of just what currency risk does. One that puts numbers on "how big it is" or "how much it matters." It definitely invalidates the assumptions that are behind the theorem by which the market portfolio is the optimum, because it invalidates the as...
by columbia
Wed May 22, 2019 5:44 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: VTSAX or VTWAX over the next 35 years?
Replies: 137
Views: 10699

Re: VTSAX or VTWAX over the next 35 years?

If you own both (evenly), you’d be reasonably close to the observed diversification benefit of about 30% international.

Either way, it very well might not matter what you choose.
by columbia
Wed May 22, 2019 3:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is the Global Portfolio the Least Risky? Lowest risk adjusted return?
Replies: 22
Views: 1709

Re: Is the Global Portfolio the Least Risky? Lowest risk adjusted return?

But what flavor of global portfolio? Is owning 8,000+ companies through VT inherently better than owning 1200+ through ACWI? Maybe it is, but the primary justification seems to boil down to “more is better.” I question whether that’s a compelling reason to own VT over ACWI. That VT is cheaper is a m...
by columbia
Tue May 21, 2019 5:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Don't add currency risk on top of equity risk
Replies: 59
Views: 3610

Re: Don't add currency risk on top of equity risk

iShares had an easy way around this - HACW: a currency hedged global cap fund.

It folded a few years ago. :x
by columbia
Tue May 21, 2019 5:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "A Set-It-and-Forget-It Target-Date Series From Vanguard"
Replies: 73
Views: 6396

Re: "A Set-It-and-Forget-It Target-Date Series From Vanguard"

I'm 29 and currently looking at the 2055 Target Retirement Fund, but also considering just Total Stock Market Fund by itself since it's cheaper and has had better returns than the target fund so far. Looking to own in my Roth. I'm still new to some of this, but is there a benefit to the internation...
by columbia
Mon May 20, 2019 6:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard ETFs, ranked by diversification benefit
Replies: 66
Views: 4281

Re: Vanguard ETFs, ranked by diversification benefit

If an investor’s horizon is long enough for 20-30 year bond funds, why would you suggest holding any bond at all? I certainly agree that asset allocation, especially during accumulation, should primarily be driven by risk tolerance. That said, the joint life expectancy of a married couple at age 63...
by columbia
Mon May 20, 2019 12:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Measuring Value In Forecasts
Replies: 40
Views: 2102

Re: Larry Swedroe: Measuring Value In Forecasts

He’s referring to estimates, not forecasts. :)
by columbia
Sun May 19, 2019 5:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Valuations of International Equities vs. US Equities
Replies: 29
Views: 2465

Re: Valuations of International Equities vs. US Equities

10 year forecasts based on valuations are always premised on there not being a significant market downturn.

One can decide whether that is a realistic assumption.
by columbia
Sun May 19, 2019 10:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Valuations of International Equities vs. US Equities
Replies: 29
Views: 2465

Re: Valuations of International Equities vs. US Equities

For those who own VT/VTWAX: Thoughts on the fact that Vanguard Global Equity (VHGEX) has had higher returns (including the expense ratio differences) since 2009? I don't own VT, but It looks like VHGEX has a "Large Growth" tilt, which has had higher returns. Yes, I see that now. It’s most striking ...
by columbia
Sun May 19, 2019 10:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Valuations of International Equities vs. US Equities
Replies: 29
Views: 2465

Re: Valuations of International Equities vs. US Equities

For those who own VT/VTWAX:

Thoughts on the fact that Vanguard Global Equity (VHGEX) has had higher returns (including the expense ratio differences) since 2009?
by columbia
Sun May 19, 2019 6:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Quadratic Interest Rate Volatility & Inflation Hedge ETF
Replies: 6
Views: 482

Quadratic Interest Rate Volatility & Inflation Hedge ETF

Nancy Davis, the chief investment officer and founder of advisory firm Quadratic Capital, is the brain behind a new exchange-traded fund on Wall Street that aims to offer investors ways to bet on inflation, the shape of the so-called yield curve and a sharp rise in interest rates. Quadratic Interes...
by columbia
Sat May 18, 2019 6:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: To invest in bnd for 2.5 years?
Replies: 17
Views: 1712

Re: To invest in bnd for 2.5 years?

Short term treasuries or money market, given the timeframe.
by columbia
Sat May 18, 2019 2:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Are U.S. Asset Prices So High Today?
Replies: 34
Views: 3022

Re: Why Are U.S. Asset Prices So High Today?

Higher correlation of global financial markets is not up for consideration?
by columbia
Sat May 18, 2019 8:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Help me design a 401k fund menu
Replies: 29
Views: 1462

Re: Help me design a 401k fund menu

If I were doing it:

Target date funds
Total stock market
Total international
Total bond market

End of list

Reasoning: behavioral economics research on folks making poor decisions in the face of too much choice.

That upsets some as paternalistic...oh well.
by columbia
Fri May 17, 2019 4:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: how do Tariffs impact your portfolio?
Replies: 25
Views: 1283

Re: how do Tariffs impact your portfolio?

2019 has - despite this being a concern - so far been less volatile than 2018. The year is still young, however.
by columbia
Fri May 17, 2019 1:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Socially Responsible [Investing]
Replies: 58
Views: 3694

Re: Socially Responsible [Investing]

That VG fund will hold only 40 companies (to start). I don’t even know how to parse that approach.
by columbia
Thu May 16, 2019 10:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bonds beyond Total Bond Market - Anyone ?
Replies: 47
Views: 3434

Re: Bonds beyond Total Bond Market - Anyone ?

I prefer treasuries, but total bond market is (also) a great choice.
by columbia
Thu May 16, 2019 9:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Amazon....we all have seen this before :)
Replies: 62
Views: 8788

Re: Amazon....we all have seen this before :)

On demand delivery is here. If it’s not Amazon, then others will replace that service.

I make no predictions on Amazon’s role in the future.
by columbia
Thu May 16, 2019 8:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will ETFs Replace Traditional Funds
Replies: 87
Views: 4779

Re: Will ETFs Replace Traditional Funds

If Vanguard really wants to vanquish mutual funds, they need to make it possible for their customers to purchase partial shares of ETFs.

Until then, I’ll own mutual funds.
by columbia
Thu May 16, 2019 7:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 10846
Views: 1892946

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

I guess irrational exuberance carried the day. :o
by columbia
Wed May 15, 2019 8:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bonds beat S&P500 over last 20 years?
Replies: 40
Views: 3752

Re: Bonds beat S&P500 over last 20 years?

Folks can posture all they want, but - for retirees - stocks can fail to deliver for longer than the rest of one’s life.

Balance is a virtue.
by columbia
Wed May 15, 2019 7:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bonds beat S&P500 over last 20 years?
Replies: 40
Views: 3752

Re: Bonds beat S&P500 over last 20 years?

DB2 wrote:
Wed May 15, 2019 5:25 pm
I've developed a lot more appreciation for bonds since I started investing; balanced portfolio is truly key.
:beer
by columbia
Wed May 15, 2019 7:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Socially Responsible [Investing]
Replies: 58
Views: 3694

Re: Socially Responsible [Investing]

I certainly missed this in March:


Vanguard to expand ESG offer with active global equity fund
https://institutional.vanguard.com/VGAp ... Info030719

Wellington Management will handle it.
by columbia
Wed May 15, 2019 2:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bonds beat S&P500 over last 20 years?
Replies: 40
Views: 3752

Re: Bonds beat S&P500 over last 20 years?

They provide significant diversification from the US stock market, which few other assets can do. (I guess you could buy gold or other commodities, but that’s not my thing.)

I like bonds (and stable value funds).
by columbia
Wed May 15, 2019 12:59 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: mechanics of paying taxes on a Roth Conversion
Replies: 26
Views: 1854

Re: mechanics of paying taxes on a Roth Conversion

Fidelity can’t just withhold the taxes at the time of conversion?
by columbia
Wed May 15, 2019 7:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Composition and safety of TIAA traditional annuity
Replies: 28
Views: 2281

Re: Composition and safety of TIAA traditional annuity

One needs to avoid a lot of things at TIAA, like their money market account: https://www.tiaa.org/public/pdf/ffs/87244W706.pdf 0.39% for the retirement class. Sticking with Traditional or the real estate fund seems wise. Those seem to be dated approx a year ago. Interest rates have changed since th...
by columbia
Wed May 15, 2019 5:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Composition and safety of TIAA traditional annuity
Replies: 28
Views: 2281

Re: Composition and safety of TIAA traditional annuity

One needs to avoid a lot of things at TIAA, like their money market account:
https://www.tiaa.org/public/pdf/ffs/87244W706.pdf

0.39% for the retirement class.

Sticking with Traditional or the real estate fund seems wise.
by columbia
Tue May 14, 2019 7:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Episode 009: "Bogleheads on Investing" with guest Dr. Wesley Gray, host Rick Ferri
Replies: 14
Views: 2252

Re: Episode 009: "Bogleheads on Investing" with guest Dr. Wesley Gray, host Rick Ferri

He’s selling variations on trying to beat the market.

I doubt his customers will benefit in the long run.
by columbia
Tue May 14, 2019 5:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 100% stocks with 3% SWR with 60 years retirement period
Replies: 40
Views: 3661

Re: 100% stocks with 3% SWR with 60 years retirement period

If 100% of your portfolio is invested in something that simply keeps up with inflation, it is "guaranteed" to last 33 years. Why do you assume that 10-year treasuries keep up with inflation? Because historically, 10-year treasuries have always had a "real" return whenever referring to a rolling 30 ...
by columbia
Tue May 14, 2019 3:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should one diversify into annuities and not bonds?
Replies: 18
Views: 1944

Re: Should one diversify into annuities and not bonds?

It depends on your situation. If you aren't worried about leaving excess money to anyone when you die, you can generally obtain a higher income stream with an annuity than you can with bonds while eliminating longevity risk. Since there’s no free lunch, you’ll be dead when it’s served. ;). I’m ok w...
by columbia
Tue May 14, 2019 7:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's the highest ER fund available to you?
Replies: 13
Views: 1385

Re: What's the highest ER fund available to you?

So far, I've found this one available in my TIAA IRA fund options with a ridiculously high ER... Naturally, I am not buying.. Nuveen Multi Asset Income Fund Class I (Mutual Funds) NMKIX + 4.17% :oops: I am curious if there is anything more expensive out there?? Who is willing to give away such a bi...
by columbia
Mon May 13, 2019 10:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Swedroe & Kitces recommend government bonds, Vanguard aggregated bonds. What's better?
Replies: 19
Views: 1714

Re: Swedroe & Kitces recommend government bonds, Vanguard aggregated bonds. What's better?

One would think that a TBM fund would outperform intermediate treasuries, but the latter has just outpaced the aggregate index since 1987.
by columbia
Sun May 12, 2019 6:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Another Warren Buffett S&P 500 Recommendation
Replies: 109
Views: 15894

Re: Another Warren Buffett S&P 500 Recommendation

Investing outside of the US won’t save anyone from “world cataclysm“, so...sure?
by columbia
Sun May 12, 2019 1:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Composition and safety of TIAA traditional annuity
Replies: 28
Views: 2281

Re: Composition and safety of TIAA traditional annuity

TIAA traditional is about 18% of my portfolio--the RA 9 years and a day version. I love the 4 percent return, but I decided against putting in more because they are still a private entity with some risk. It was a little disquieting that the RA vintages going forward just fell in a period of two mon...
by columbia
Sun May 12, 2019 9:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Asset Location
Replies: 11
Views: 1357

Re: Asset Location

Unless you’re keeping your emergency account in a Roth, one would certainly have a decent chunk in taxable as money market/ST bonds. Then again, maybe some don’t count their emergency fund as part of their overall allocation?
by columbia
Sun May 12, 2019 8:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Wellington and Wellsley over the last 20 years
Replies: 60
Views: 6717

Re: Vanguard Wellington and Wellsley over the last 20 years

Cheyenne wrote:
Sun May 12, 2019 7:50 am
Would it make sense to hold 50% of each?

50% Wellesley
50% Wellington
If that’s what seems most comfortable for you, then sure.
One could do a lot worse.

I very well might have this allocation in my Roth in the years preceding retirement.
by columbia
Sun May 12, 2019 7:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is my friend a closet market timer?
Replies: 16
Views: 1676

Re: Is my friend a closet market timer?

Has your friend revealed the success (or failure) of said strategy?
by columbia
Sun May 12, 2019 6:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Value investing got too popular for its own good?
Replies: 14
Views: 1598

Re: Value investing got too popular for its own good?

47 years....but, also not sure if you’re serious. :D
by columbia
Sun May 12, 2019 6:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Value investing got too popular for its own good?
Replies: 14
Views: 1598

Re: Value investing got too popular for its own good?

Since 1972, splitting your allocation between value and growth and rebalancing annually has juiced returns by about 0.50%. https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-asset-class-allocation?s=y&mode=2&timePeriod=4&startYear=1972&firstMonth=1&endYear=2019&lastMonth=12&calendarAligned=true&initialAmo...
by columbia
Sun May 12, 2019 6:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Emerging Markets Need Time
Replies: 60
Views: 4180

Re: Larry Swedroe: Emerging Markets Need Time

In the podcast linked in another thread, Mr. Bernstein discusses only owning EM when it is valued well below developed markets. Now would be one of those times (if that’s part of your strategy).
by columbia
Sat May 11, 2019 5:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Imperfect market timing still works -- if you stick with it
Replies: 149
Views: 10762

Re: Imperfect market timing still works -- if you stick with it

There’s a typically paranoid article about market timing on Zero Hedge today.

As with everything there, no one should read it.
by columbia
Sat May 11, 2019 4:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Emerging Markets Need Time
Replies: 60
Views: 4180

Re: Larry Swedroe: Emerging Markets Need Time

Currently, my trend following strategy currently has around 50% of my portfolio in EM. So I obviously believe that it can be a valuable asset class. That being said, it's been a high risk/low reward asset class over the last 24+ years. From 1995 through last month, it returned 6.15% with a std. dev...
by columbia
Sat May 11, 2019 9:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why I bet on S&P500
Replies: 51
Views: 3006

Re: Why I bet on S&P500

whodidntante wrote:
Sat May 11, 2019 9:44 am
Since America makes the best cars, it makes sense that we would make the best stocks.
Out curiosity: has any car maker beat the SP500 over the last 30 years?