Search found 62 matches

by chameleon
Fri Aug 29, 2014 8:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: High net worth in CA - what % of bonds in munis?
Replies: 21
Views: 3018

Re: High net worth in CA - what % of bonds in munis?

It's amazing how much faith people have in the CA local government. If you really looked into the issue it would make you pretty nervous. The lack of water, earthquake potential, and government malfeasance makes CA a much riskier investment.
by chameleon
Fri Aug 29, 2014 8:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Poor Janus, a look at this once high flying fund family
Replies: 72
Views: 11680

Re: Poor Janus, a look at this once high flying fund family

Not to sound any undue alarms here but wasn't Wellington also recently involved in an insider trading probe? This was back in 2010 and nothing came of it but it does make me very wary as to what's going on behind closed doors.
by chameleon
Wed Aug 27, 2014 6:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's "The Herd" doing today?
Replies: 52
Views: 5489

Re: What's "The Herd" doing today?

For the under age 45 set I see the follow herd trends: 1) House flipping and "investment" real estate has become trendy again. Just look at cities that are rapidly overheating like Atlanta, Florida (various cities), Phoenix, Las Vegas, etc.. This time people are speculating with mostly cas...
by chameleon
Mon Aug 18, 2014 7:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Your biggest "Missed Money" event that still kills you?
Replies: 102
Views: 12854

Re: Your biggest "Missed Money" event that still kills you?

Loading up on apple in 2004 wouldn't have made a lot of sense then unless you were a tech nostradamus. The only good product they had was the MAC book and I think the ipod was still in infancy stages. The iphone was still a good 3 years away. There's no way anyone could have predicted all this popul...
by chameleon
Fri Aug 15, 2014 10:53 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Market timing
Replies: 6
Views: 727

Re: Market timing

I like Ferri's advice about lump sum investing the most.

http://www.rickferri.com/blog/investmen ... -lump-sum/

I made the early mistake of keeping a pretty significant six figure amount out of the market while I was trying to figure out what to do.
by chameleon
Thu Aug 14, 2014 11:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A financial “guru” for world travelers?
Replies: 18
Views: 2975

Re: A financial “guru” for world travelers?

When I was traveling in South America in the late-1990s, I met a woman who was funding her travels by trading. I don't remember if she was "day" trading or just trading, but she claimed that she was very successful. In the retrospect, I realized that she was riding the NASDAQ wave. I hope...
by chameleon
Thu Aug 14, 2014 11:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Berkshire Hathaway - Warren Buffett - Anyone own the stock?
Replies: 110
Views: 15136

Re: Berkshire Hathaway - Warren Buffett - Anyone own the sto

I look at Warren Buffet as a king and Berkshire Hathaway as his kingdom. When the visionary King is gone the kingdom rarely sustains its luster. The man is a genius and the type of person who isn't easily replaceable.
by chameleon
Tue Aug 12, 2014 3:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A financial “guru” for world travelers?
Replies: 18
Views: 2975

Re: A financial “guru” for world travelers?

If this person really had some super secret system capable of netting a living wage in a few hours then a lot of people would be singing his praises and he'd be featured on forbes and billion dollar hedge funds would be knocking down his door. I bet the cost of learning his super secret system is in...
by chameleon
Mon Aug 11, 2014 8:23 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Renting forever: financial suicide?
Replies: 135
Views: 34539

Re: Renting forever: financial suicide?

It makes sense to buy in a high growth area and it makes sense to rent in an area with ridiculous price/rent ratio. I bought in a high growth neighborhood and my house appreciated 8% a year and was not effected nearly as much by the housing bust. You really have to select areas where there is a firm...
by chameleon
Fri Aug 08, 2014 11:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dave Ramsey still defending 12% and still angry at "nerds"
Replies: 194
Views: 34377

Re: Dave Ramsey still defending 12% and still angry at "nerd

I'm starting to come to the conclusion that the bad points Ramsey espouses is based on faith and "gut feeling" and has nothing to do with reality. The popularity of his positions are also heavily dependant on the target audience having enough "faith" to not use critical thinking ...
by chameleon
Fri Aug 08, 2014 9:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Going 60+% international? (US resident)
Replies: 85
Views: 9521

Re: Going 60+% international? (US resident)

I considered this at one point too. There is some (limited) evidence to support such an allocation like: http://www.gurufocus.com/global-market-valuation.php The problem is that the Eurozone has a lot of drag to their economy as well. Many of those countries are going through a demographic crisis a...
by chameleon
Fri Aug 08, 2014 9:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Going 60+% international? (US resident)
Replies: 85
Views: 9521

Re: Going 60+% international? (US resident)

I considered this at one point too. There is some (limited) evidence to support such an allocation like: http://www.gurufocus.com/global-market-valuation.php The problem is that the Eurozone has a lot of drag to their economy as well. Many of those countries are going through a demographic crisis as...
by chameleon
Fri Aug 08, 2014 9:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dave Ramsey still defending 12% and still angry at "nerds"
Replies: 194
Views: 34377

Re: Dave Ramsey still defending 12% and still angry at "nerd

I would, however, still like to know if Dave's 12% investment promise or 8% withdrawal rate has actually resulted in real harm to any substantial number of persons. Has it? This is a rather ridiculous line of thinking. If you look at a broad expanse of time ie. a 15-30 year horizon 8% is very deadl...
by chameleon
Fri Aug 08, 2014 8:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dave Ramsey still defending 12% and still angry at "nerds"
Replies: 194
Views: 34377

Re: Dave Ramsey still defending 12% and still angry at "nerd

Yeah, the 12% is exaggerated... but by then, you know that. What about the people who don't know that? Out of the millions of listeners and acolytes that follow his advice i'm sure a sizeable percentage are led down a dark path. Now what will happen to these retirees when they really do start withd...
by chameleon
Thu Aug 07, 2014 10:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Moving Average Backtest destroys Buy/Hold. Try for yourself.
Replies: 59
Views: 11851

Re: Moving Average Backtest destroys Buy/Hold. Try for yours

Moving average timing is kind of interesting I must admit. However, there is a flaw in pulling all your money out in a bear market because you also forgo dividend reinvestment during this period. Have returns been calculated with this loss of dividend reinvestment in the period where you don't have ...
by chameleon
Thu Aug 07, 2014 1:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: ? Best simple reference to dissuade a day trader
Replies: 67
Views: 7630

Re: ? Best simple reference to dissuade a day trader

The participants in the market collectively make the market return minus expenses. The more trading you do, the more your friction costs in fees and taxes. As a whole, the active traders will make less than those who buy and hold the broad market indexes. It can be no other way. It is just math, pu...
by chameleon
Tue Aug 05, 2014 5:30 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: wealthfront, betterment, and clones
Replies: 8
Views: 2551

Re: wealthfront, betterment, and clones

No thanks. It's just another service skimming basis points off the top for little or no reason.
by chameleon
Mon Aug 04, 2014 11:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dave Ramsey still defending 12% and still angry at "nerds"
Replies: 194
Views: 34377

Re: Dave Ramsey still defending 12% and still angry at "nerd

If Mr Ramsey brings it down from 12% to 4.5% will you be happy and non-vehement then?! Yes, that would be a more realistic rate of return to use when performing retirement planning. But it's not true, there is no reliable number, no one can know. I heard Mr Bogle hem and haw and say he expects abou...
by chameleon
Mon Aug 04, 2014 11:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dave Ramsey still defending 12% and still angry at "nerds"
Replies: 194
Views: 34377

Re: Dave Ramsey still defending 12% and still angry at "nerd

rkatz0 wrote:I believe he does way more good than bad.
If someone takes me out for lunch, gives me a few good business tips, and then turns around and tries to sell me a lemon he's still not someone I would trust. It's almost bait and switch.
by chameleon
Mon Aug 04, 2014 7:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dave Ramsey still defending 12% and still angry at "nerds"
Replies: 194
Views: 34377

Re: Dave Ramsey still defending 12% and still angry at "nerd

He's a financial firebrand. A guy who has adopted pulpit style rhetoric to preach financial wisdom and combines that with lifestyle, religion, and politics. This appeals greatly to a certain core audience who loves emotional appeals. Jim Cramer uses similar tactics minus the political angle. The pro...
by chameleon
Sun Jul 13, 2014 6:23 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Thoughts on 100% stock allocation for 33 year old
Replies: 85
Views: 15387

Re: Thoughts on 100% stock allocation for 33 year old

I'm a little bit older than the OP and I second and third many of the comments on here advising against 100% equity. I decided on a 60/40 mix myself but bumped that up slightly to 65/35. The reason for my relatively conservative allocation is that the market is fairly high right now. While we won't ...
by chameleon
Tue Jul 08, 2014 10:07 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: List of Worst financial advice (what not to do):
Replies: 144
Views: 20814

Re: List of Worst financial advice (what not to do):

"It's ok to get an expensive post grad degree in humanities that will put you in a high five or six figure debt but it's ok because your future salary should make up for it!" On NBC News tonight, it's WHAT you take (STEM) not where you went to school ( public/private )that determines your...
by chameleon
Tue Jul 08, 2014 8:14 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: List of Worst financial advice (what not to do):
Replies: 144
Views: 20814

Re: List of Worst financial advice (what not to do):

"Holding a lot of gold is a good investment and will protect you against the invasion from the reptilians, north koreans, the banker cabal, marxists, etc..." "These _insert current fad collectible item_ will be worth something someday!" For the younger bogleheads: "It's ok t...
by chameleon
Sun Jul 06, 2014 9:51 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: California Intermediate-Term Tax-Exempt Fund
Replies: 9
Views: 1556

Re: California Intermediate-Term Tax-Exempt Fund

I recently sold mine in favor of VWIUX for national muni diversification. In my opinion the risk of investing in CA outweighs the reward.

CA is and always will be one natural disaster away from serious economic devastation.
by chameleon
Sat Jul 05, 2014 11:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Only a fraction of Americans directly own stocks"
Replies: 27
Views: 4298

Re: "Only a fraction of Americans directly own stocks"

Articles like this might be a positive sign of where the investment headwinds are going. The reason why is that mainstream news pieces just regurgitate existing popular sentiments. Pessimism coming from the public is far better than irrational exuberance. It shows that there are still a lot of peopl...
by chameleon
Fri Jun 27, 2014 11:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: GoPro IPO
Replies: 31
Views: 4775

Re: GoPro IPO

Up 30% on the first day, 12% on the second. Looks like the train has left the station. Just like that upstart Google. Started at $85 on the first day of trading and I think the pieces are worth $1150 or so today. This is a silly comparison. Google already had a very dominant market share of the sea...
by chameleon
Tue Jun 24, 2014 12:10 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Question about divorce & settlement
Replies: 39
Views: 3563

Re: Question about divorce & settlement

My condolences on your impending divorce. Your assets are not safe. She is entitled to 50% and even the possibility of permanent alimony if it's allowed in the state you're in. This is true even if she's classified as a "home maker." You're in for a rough ride. Secure a reliable attorney a...
by chameleon
Wed Jun 18, 2014 9:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: To stay a Boglehead, I have to leave Bogleheads.org
Replies: 56
Views: 8159

Re: To stay a Boglehead, I have to leave Bogleheads.org

One peculiar trait I see from a significant but vocal minority of the U.S. population is this need to constantly beat the drums of doom. I don't know if it's because people are stressed out and overworked in their personal lives or what but there is a pervasive negativity that reflects in various po...
by chameleon
Sat May 24, 2014 4:32 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Talk me out of buying a Porsche Convertible. DISASTER!!!
Replies: 45
Views: 9806

Re: Talk me out of buying a Porsche Convertible. DISASTER!!!

It's good that the owners ponied up cash right away to settle the matter. However, you're still getting the short end of the stick here. Installing the rebuilt engine will still cost you out of pocket and the car is now worth much less since it had a critical mechanical failure and a rebuilt engine....
by chameleon
Fri May 23, 2014 4:57 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How much house should I buy? (young person with many assets)
Replies: 71
Views: 8316

Re: How much house should I buy? (young person with many ass

OP posted this nine minutes after joining the board yesterday and hasn't appeared since. Anyone else beginning to wonder if we're being scammed? Gill Scam is the wrong word to use unless you plan on sending this guy money or buying swamp land from him. I suppose someone could be making up this hypo...
by chameleon
Fri May 23, 2014 4:51 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Is now a bad time to invest?
Replies: 100
Views: 12699

Re: Is now a bad time to invest?

2. Past performance doesn't guarantee future returns. Just because the US market has generally gone up for long periods of time doesn't mean it always will. Countries fail (Japan -- I'm referring to their stock market). Empires fail (Rome). What's more likely to happen..the U.S. failing (in which c...
by chameleon
Fri May 23, 2014 4:05 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How much house should I buy? (young person with many assets)
Replies: 71
Views: 8316

Re: How much house should I buy? (young person with many ass

I sold my house last year and I was around the same age as the OP when I purchased my home. Remember the fundamentals..location location location and make sure you are in an area with steady job growth and good schools. Make sure you plan on working long term in that area too. You don't want to have...
by chameleon
Fri May 23, 2014 3:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: GoPro IPO
Replies: 31
Views: 4775

Re: GoPro IPO

I don't see any moat either. I think they are smart to do an IPO right at the height of their popularity and growth. Their marketing strategy has been brilliant so far. I bet it won't be long before smart phones (with a special bracket and/or waterproof case as needed) can do everything GoPro can d...
by chameleon
Fri May 23, 2014 3:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: GoPro IPO
Replies: 31
Views: 4775

Re: GoPro IPO

I use my Gopro a lot for scuba diving but it has its flaws..it's not good in low light and has focus issues. The battery life also isn't that great on it either. My point is that as a compact HD device it's flawed enough that a big competitor like Sony, Samsung, Canon, Olympus, etc.. can step in at ...
by chameleon
Wed May 21, 2014 2:20 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Question for renters that are happily renting..
Replies: 44
Views: 11121

Re: Question for renters that are happily renting..

Personally I noticed the pressure to set down roots comes mainly from people who are already married and or are fully invested in their location with no turning back. I don't want to sound negative because not all married couples or people locked into one location are unhappy.. but the saying "...
by chameleon
Wed May 21, 2014 2:15 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Question for renters that are happily renting..
Replies: 44
Views: 11121

Re: Question for renters that are happily renting..

Personally I noticed the pressure to set down roots comes mainly from people who are already married and or are fully invested in their location with no turning back. I don't want to sound negative because not all married couples or people locked into one location are unhappy.. but the saying "...
by chameleon
Wed May 21, 2014 1:39 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Question for renters that are happily renting..
Replies: 44
Views: 11121

Re: Question for renters that are happily renting..

The one thing I've been surprised at has been the subtle (and not-so-subtle) social pressure to start buying a place independent of any rational analysis of the cost or reasons. I can't say that it's bothered me, but its pervasiveness is striking. Personally I noticed the pressure to set down roots...
by chameleon
Tue May 20, 2014 11:28 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Overcharged for Water Damage
Replies: 17
Views: 3698

Re: Overcharged for Water Damage

5k for drying and cleaning carpet after water damage is pretty outrageous. This is especially true if you didn't have damage to wood flooring, drywall, and nothing had to be replaced. I was in a pretty high cost of living area and the same job would be less than $1,000 at most. I replaced a large ch...
by chameleon
Tue May 20, 2014 11:19 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Home maintenance for a newbie
Replies: 19
Views: 2664

Re: Home maintenance for a newbie

If you live within 1-3 miles of a major freeway system I recommend getting a general termite check done by a reliable company every couple years. Subterranean termites in particular can totally wreck your house without you ever knowing it. If you're not close to a freeway then maybe once every 3 yea...
by chameleon
Tue May 20, 2014 7:25 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Poor Planning Parents
Replies: 28
Views: 4206

Re: Poor Planning Parents (baby boomers)

Just curious but something doesn't seem right with the valuation of the property. If the property is valued as you stated and you are relatively confident that it could realistically sell at that price then your parents aren't really in financial trouble at all. They may owe more than they can pay a...
by chameleon
Tue May 20, 2014 1:25 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Question for renters that are happily renting..
Replies: 44
Views: 11121

Re: Question for renters that are happily renting..

I haven't rented since my 20's but, as a single guy in my mid-40's, I am tired of home ownership. Had some issues with my current place that are now resolved, but I find myself dreaming of the flexibility and freedom with renting. I think it will better suit my lifestyle because I'd rather spend my...
by chameleon
Tue May 20, 2014 1:13 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Fighting a scamming company
Replies: 13
Views: 3270

Re: Fighting a scamming company

Isn't this considered mail fraud? Contact the postmaster general and also the regional FBI office from where the letter originates. I'm sure at least one would be interested in fake mass invoicing and solicitation of funds. This might even fall under RICO statutes which would mean serious jail time ...
by chameleon
Tue May 20, 2014 12:55 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Housing affordability CA
Replies: 22
Views: 3475

Re: Housing affordability CA

. When I lived in the Bay Area and was looking at buying my first house I researched it and the best guess that I could come up with was that if if bought a house there it might have major earthquake damage once in 200 years. That does not sound to bad until you realize that if you own the house fo...
by chameleon
Fri May 16, 2014 9:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Apple Stock - Seems great, right?
Replies: 116
Views: 15105

Re: Apple Stock - Seems great, right?

I'm curious what you would consider "very good" products. Since this is an investment forum I'd suggest that the definition should be products that significantly increase the company's stock price. Given the current company profile it's a high bar to get over. The main problem with Apple ...
by chameleon
Fri May 16, 2014 1:08 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: finding performance data on real estate agents?
Replies: 5
Views: 1236

Re: finding performance data on real estate agents?

I'm trying to sell a house I inherited a few thousand miles away from where I currently live and I'm trying to evalute several potential full service real estate agents. are there any good websites that track real-estate agent performance in the US (how many listings/yr, sales/year, price reduction...
by chameleon
Mon May 12, 2014 10:01 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Why do these people want to buy my home?
Replies: 24
Views: 15457

Re: Why do these people want to buy my home?

I sold my house 6 months ago and was hit with all kinds of real estate spam too. Just ignore all of it. I had agents show up on my doorstep doing door to door soliciting as well. I did my own research and chose the best agent for the job. Any agent worth his/her salt will tell you that the problem i...
by chameleon
Sun May 11, 2014 1:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "When Vix is high it's time to buy"
Replies: 25
Views: 4047

Re: "When Vix is high it's time to buy"

And yet the market plunge was only halfway through when the VIX was at 40, so your friend would be suffering from paper losses. I discussed the issue about catching falling knives and his whole point was that his time horizon (10+ years) is long enough that he's just looking to capture a significan...
by chameleon
Fri May 09, 2014 11:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "When Vix is high it's time to buy"
Replies: 25
Views: 4047

Re: "When Vix is high it's time to buy"

http://www-csfi.sigmath.es.osaka-u.ac.jp/en/activity/vxj/vjo_en.pdf japanese vix hit a high in 1990, just before the lost decades of the 1990s and 2000s. equity returns were awful for 20 years. True, but what is the likelihood of this happening to the U.S. market and if this occurs wouldn't the who...
by chameleon
Fri May 09, 2014 11:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "When Vix is high it's time to buy"
Replies: 25
Views: 4047

Re: "When Vix is high it's time to buy"

The question remains... If he's not 100% stocks all the time, what indicator makes him sell? That's a good question, i'll have to ask him next time on what his strategy is for locking in profit. Easier to just accept market returns, and not try to beat the market. Sure, one could jump in and out ar...
by chameleon
Fri May 09, 2014 9:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "When Vix is high it's time to buy"
Replies: 25
Views: 4047

Re: "When Vix is high it's time to buy"

There are many strategies that resemble the gambler's martingale (the fundamental gambling "system.") They almost never fail, but when they succeed the winnings are moderate and when they fail the losses are catastrophic. I had a discussion with him about market timing and catching fallin...