Search found 5251 matches

by TheTimeLord
Sun Jul 15, 2018 6:17 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: FireCalc: How big a grain of salt?
Replies: 58
Views: 4696

Re: FireCalc: How big a grain of salt?

As you point out, it's all based on historical cycles and the future may be different. Only one thing is certain: everyone living will die. You are correct, who knows stocks may go to zero, I guess they can't or shouldn't be counted on to keep moving from lower left to upper right over the long ter...
by TheTimeLord
Sun Jul 15, 2018 6:03 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: FireCalc: How big a grain of salt?
Replies: 58
Views: 4696

Re: FireCalc: How big a grain of salt?

I periodically run Firecalc, which I did this morning, and here are the results with what I consider a pretty aggressive level of spending. My question is how big a grain of salt do I take these with? FWIW, the results were pretty much inline with my own spreadsheets, so I feel good about that. But...
by TheTimeLord
Sun Jul 15, 2018 2:49 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: FireCalc: How big a grain of salt?
Replies: 58
Views: 4696

Re: FireCalc: How big a grain of salt?

Reading through this thread, I am beginning to wonder how anyone retires without a constant fear of running out of money. Then that makes me wonder if anyone voluntarily retires or is everyone just forced out to live out their days in fear of financial calamity.
by TheTimeLord
Sun Jul 15, 2018 1:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which Brokerage to use strictly for Brokered CDs
Replies: 18
Views: 1505

Re: Which Brokerage to use strictly for Brokered CDs

Use Fidelity for CDs. Any particular reason? I am thinking I will open a Fidelity account because their website doesn't feel as confusing as the others, and I like the rollover feature, but curious why you are recommending them. It seems to me that have a wide array of CDs with competitive yields a...
by TheTimeLord
Sun Jul 15, 2018 10:36 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: FireCalc: How big a grain of salt?
Replies: 58
Views: 4696

Re: FireCalc: How big a grain of salt?

I periodically run Firecalc, which I did this morning, and here are the results with what I consider a pretty aggressive level of spending. My question is how big a grain of salt do I take these with? FWIW, the results were pretty much inline with my own spreadsheets, so I feel good about that. But...
by TheTimeLord
Sun Jul 15, 2018 10:05 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: FireCalc: How big a grain of salt?
Replies: 58
Views: 4696

Re: FireCalc: How big a grain of salt?

. . . what is the method should one use to make predictions about the ability of the portfolio to support them in retirement. I simply divide the total amount by expected years of life and as long as it is significantly more than what I actually spend, then I don't worry about it. Honestly, I never...
by TheTimeLord
Sun Jul 15, 2018 9:36 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: FireCalc: How big a grain of salt?
Replies: 58
Views: 4696

Re: FireCalc: How big a grain of salt?

“Past performance does not guarantee future results.” Nothing is guaranteed, the question is to what degree do you trust the predictive capability of their model. And I guess if you don't, what is the method should one use to make predictions about the ability of the portfolio to support them in re...
by TheTimeLord
Sun Jul 15, 2018 9:23 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: FireCalc: How big a grain of salt?
Replies: 58
Views: 4696

Re: FireCalc: How big a grain of salt?

I haven’t run firecalc in years. The results do t change much from year to year do they? I guess if your portfolio has done better than average over the last year or two your results might improve. In my case, my investments aren’t the same as the firecalc market reference so seems of little use to...
by TheTimeLord
Sun Jul 15, 2018 9:08 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: FireCalc: How big a grain of salt?
Replies: 58
Views: 4696

FireCalc: How big a grain of salt?

I periodically run Firecalc, which I did this morning, and here are the results with what I consider a pretty aggressive level of spending. My question is how big a grain of salt do I take these with? FWIW, the results were pretty much inline with my own spreadsheets, so I feel good about that. But ...
by TheTimeLord
Sun Jul 15, 2018 8:25 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Spending profile in retirement
Replies: 19
Views: 1679

Re: Spending profile in retirement

Cyclesafe wrote:
Sun Jul 15, 2018 8:07 am
Ike said something like "Plans are useless, planning is indispensable".
Excellent. Also remember this quote "Everybody has a plan until they get punched in the mouth ~ Mike Tyson" because life has a pretty good left hook.
by TheTimeLord
Sat Jul 14, 2018 8:01 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Early retirement
Replies: 145
Views: 14088

Re: Early retirement

My friends were mostly happy for me to retired early. I don't think most people care about what the other people are doing, they are too busy with their own life. This is my point. Who really care about you retired early or not? Probably you yourself fell so special that you think too much about ot...
by TheTimeLord
Sat Jul 14, 2018 12:05 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Early retirement
Replies: 145
Views: 14088

Re: Early retirement

Spouse is trying to spend more so I may work more and compete with others and own more than others in her circle(and she can post more pictures on social media) - apparently that is success to her. I feel for you. This is a systemic problem that grew with social media. Good luck overcoming that one...
by TheTimeLord
Sat Jul 14, 2018 12:00 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Amazon won't sell this book to me.
Replies: 68
Views: 8565

Re: Amazon won't sell this book to me.

I have always felt that IF an individual had a better employment opportunity other than working for (insert name of your choice) then surely they would exercise their freedom to seek other employment. I agree in theory but see just the opposite in practice. Many people exhibit inertia and avoid cha...
by TheTimeLord
Sat Jul 14, 2018 9:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bucket Portfolio article by Christine Benz
Replies: 85
Views: 6639

Re: Bucket Portfolio article by Christine Benz

This thread would be far more useful with terms associated. To me a bucket is an individually defined portfolio with it's own unique AA set created to serve a timeframe or purpose. Obviously this is not the definition being used by the majority here, especially ardent anti-Bucketeers.
by TheTimeLord
Sat Jul 14, 2018 9:32 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Dave Ramsey made me laugh today
Replies: 63
Views: 6788

Re: Dave Ramsey made me laugh today

I suppose he's great for spendaholics but at his core he's an anti-government anti-debt looney-tune . So if you are anti-debt your are a looney-tune? You really don't believe the majority of society has difficulty with impulse control and handling debt? It seems to me leverage plays a significant r...
by TheTimeLord
Fri Jul 13, 2018 7:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Dave Ramsey made me laugh today
Replies: 63
Views: 6788

Re: Dave Ramsey made me laugh today

I was listening to his podcast and he basically said this: "Bonds are stupid, they decrease in value in rising interest rates. I don't own any bonds and all of my mutual funds are in stocks." He then rattled off his usual "growth, growth/income, aggressive growth, international" allocation. Seems s...
by TheTimeLord
Fri Jul 13, 2018 7:41 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Early retirement
Replies: 145
Views: 14088

Re: Early retirement

I am stunned anyone besides a gold digger would care. I took a package from Megacorp not knowing if I would go back to work or not and in roughly a year of not working I can't remembering anyone asking or caring. They all seemed more interested in their lives than mine. Then again it not like I was ...
by TheTimeLord
Fri Jul 13, 2018 3:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Dave Ramsey made me laugh today
Replies: 63
Views: 6788

Re: Dave Ramsey made me laugh today

He hates bond funds and says one needs to immediately sell them. So essentially what he is suggesting is a 100% equities portfolio with zero diversification among other asset classes - I have not heard this type of advice from anyone else. In fact even the vast majority of other experts harp on the...
by TheTimeLord
Fri Jul 13, 2018 3:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Dave Ramsey made me laugh today
Replies: 63
Views: 6788

Re: Dave Ramsey made me laugh today

He hates bond funds and says one needs to immediately sell them. So essentially what he is suggesting is a 100% equities portfolio with zero diversification among other asset classes - I have not heard this type of advice from anyone else. In fact even the vast majority of other experts harp on the...
by TheTimeLord
Fri Jul 13, 2018 3:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Dave Ramsey made me laugh today
Replies: 63
Views: 6788

Re: Dave Ramsey made me laugh today

I was listening to his podcast and he basically said this: "Bonds are stupid, they decrease in value in rising interest rates. I don't own any bonds and all of my mutual funds are in stocks." He then rattled off his usual "growth, growth/income, aggressive growth, international" allocation. Seems s...
by TheTimeLord
Fri Jul 13, 2018 2:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Know Your Investor Personality
Replies: 26
Views: 2740

Re: Larry Swedroe: Know Your Investor Personality

http://www.etf.com/sections/index-investor-corner/swedroe-know-your-investor-personality?nopaging=1 Dave Conservative Investors Mental accounting: Treating different pockets of assets differently, they tend to use a “bucket” approach instead of evaluating the portfolio as a whole. Mental accounting...
by TheTimeLord
Fri Jul 13, 2018 11:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Know Your Investor Personality
Replies: 26
Views: 2740

Re: Larry Swedroe: Know Your Investor Personality

While it may seem counter intuitive, the more I have, the more conservative have been investing because I have more to lose. I have been very aware of this change occurring over the past 5 years. Same here. I was surprised. Of the 4 categories mentioned, I seemed to fall most in conservative. Dave ...
by TheTimeLord
Fri Jul 13, 2018 9:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Know Your Investor Personality
Replies: 26
Views: 2740

Re: Larry Swedroe: Know Your Investor Personality

While it may seem counter intuitive, the more I have, the more conservative have been investing because I have more to lose. I have been very aware of this change occurring over the past 5 years.
by TheTimeLord
Fri Jul 13, 2018 9:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Let's talk about Vanguard International Bond
Replies: 2
Views: 380

Re: Let's talk about Vanguard International Bond

Since May 17th the Total Bond Market has outperformed according to M*. http://quotes.morningstar.com/chart/fund/chart?t=VBMFX®ion=usa&culture=en_US&dataParams=%7B%22zoomKey%22%3A11%2C%22version%22%3A%22US%22%2C%22showNav%22%3Atrue%2C%22defaultShowName%22%3A%22name%22%2C%22mainSettingId%22%3A%22ma...
by TheTimeLord
Fri Jul 13, 2018 9:38 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Would you trade experiences in your youth for early retirement
Replies: 81
Views: 5510

Re: Would you trade experiences in your youth for early retirement

metrunt wrote:
Fri Jul 13, 2018 9:34 am
mhc wrote:
Fri Jul 13, 2018 9:31 am
What is OMY?
Maybe "One More Year"?
Correct.
by TheTimeLord
Fri Jul 13, 2018 8:39 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Would you trade experiences in your youth for early retirement
Replies: 81
Views: 5510

Would you trade experiences in your youth for early retirement

We always have a lot of threads talking about frugality, extreme savings (40%-50%), reasonably priced activities in retirement and early retirement. What I don't see much of beyond should I buy this hyper-expensive car or million dollar plus house is a discussion of how to meld retirement saving wit...
by TheTimeLord
Fri Jul 13, 2018 8:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Saving 20% of paycheck isn't enough
Replies: 112
Views: 13805

Re: Saving 20% of paycheck isn't enough

I feel that 10-20% savings is simply not enough and should be aimed more at 40% to achieve an early retirement goal. The amount you need to save out of your paycheck will of course be affected by the amount of time you have to save and those savings have to compound, the amount you want to accumula...
by TheTimeLord
Thu Jul 12, 2018 8:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What's your *real* asset allocation?
Replies: 30
Views: 3154

Re: What's your *real* asset allocation?

I include all invested assets including savings bonds. My allocation target and real are very close to the same. Within a percent or 2, moving with markets. The house? No. That's where I live. It isn't a retirement investment. Since I assume I will end up in Assisted Living at some point, I plan to...
by TheTimeLord
Thu Jul 12, 2018 6:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What's your *real* asset allocation?
Replies: 30
Views: 3154

Re: What's your *real* asset allocation?

I include all invested assets including savings bonds. My allocation target and real are very close to the same. Within a percent or 2, moving with markets. The house? No. That's where I live. It isn't a retirement investment. Since I assume I will end up in Assisted Living at some point, I plan to...
by TheTimeLord
Thu Jul 12, 2018 1:19 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What rate of return are you using for retirement projections?
Replies: 99
Views: 9518

Re: What rate of return are you using for retirement projections?

flyingaway wrote:
Thu Jul 12, 2018 12:01 am
My portfolio is 70/30, I need 2% real to make it work. I am not sure I can get it for the future years, so I keep working to make my portfolio bigger.
You don't believe you can average 2% real over the next 30+ years?
by TheTimeLord
Wed Jul 11, 2018 6:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: portfolio help
Replies: 12
Views: 904

Re: portfolio help

tax rate is 15% Fed, 9% state I am thinking 15% was your marginal tax rate last year not your effective tax rate. So I would expect that to drop to 12% this year. Folks please chime in on if you agree or disagree with me on this. https://www.investors.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/TAXBRACKETS-2-Ma...
by TheTimeLord
Wed Jul 11, 2018 4:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jack Bogle on Asset Allocation and Market Collapse
Replies: 2
Views: 1286

Jack Bogle on Asset Allocation and Market Collapse

This might be an interesting video with all the discussion of valuations and market timing.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k6ra5POdsYg
by TheTimeLord
Wed Jul 11, 2018 4:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Any Dry Powder Strategies?
Replies: 103
Views: 6127

Re: Any Dry Powder Strategies?

Just invest in vanguard balanced admiral fund (30/30/40) for life and forget about gun power. Not sure what 30/30/40 means, the fund holds less than 1% International according to Morningstar assuming you mean Vanguard Balanced Index Admiral fund. I can't find one named Vanguard Balanced Admiral fun...
by TheTimeLord
Wed Jul 11, 2018 4:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Any Dry Powder Strategies?
Replies: 103
Views: 6127

Re: Any Dry Powder Strategies?

Why do I need to worry about a buyer for a mutual fund? As previously stated only the 40% of the fund that is bonds is being considered dry powder. The reason for the using the Balanced Index fund is to have a single fund for new contributions as oppose to 2 funds, one for bonds, one for equities. ...
by TheTimeLord
Wed Jul 11, 2018 2:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Any Dry Powder Strategies?
Replies: 103
Views: 6127

Re: Any Dry Powder Strategies?

Exchanging from Balanced Index to Total Market would happen at close on the day the exchange was submitted would it not? If you're willing to assume that there are buyers willing to buy what you're selling , and willing to assume that there's sufficient remaining value to make it worthwhile, perhap...
by TheTimeLord
Wed Jul 11, 2018 1:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bucket Portfolio article by Christine Benz
Replies: 85
Views: 6639

Re: Bucket Portfolio article by Christine Benz

Two investors have the same asset allocation. The one who has a bucket strategy is mitigating the risk of a ST bear market by amplifying the risk of a LT bear market relative to the other investor using a standard portfolio strategy. BobK Do you really believe my bucket strategy as outlined does th...
by TheTimeLord
Wed Jul 11, 2018 1:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Any Dry Powder Strategies?
Replies: 103
Views: 6127

Re: Any Dry Powder Strategies?

To my mind, Dry Powder means funds that you can use on short notice for a buying opportunity that may not last long -- the 1987 flash crash (Black Monday) comes to mind. It is explicitly saved -- not invested -- and immediately ready for use. The "investment" can best be thought of as a commodity -...
by TheTimeLord
Wed Jul 11, 2018 12:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Disappointed with Fidelity's Online Interface
Replies: 19
Views: 1661

Re: Disappointed with Fidelity's Online Interface

Fidelity Online Interface is terrible. Is anyone else disappointed with the online interface at Fidelity? I recently switched to Fidelity due to my brokerage closing I find it to be increasingly frustrating. I contacted fidelity regarding my frustrations, but they blew off my concerns. Issue 1: Acc...
by TheTimeLord
Wed Jul 11, 2018 12:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Any Dry Powder Strategies?
Replies: 103
Views: 6127

Re: Any Dry Powder Strategies?

Nearing retirement... We’re waiting for you on the 2019 Roll call thread. :D Based upon TTL's previous posting history, I am betting 2025 Roll call thread would be more appropriate :-) I believe this is the 6th post in the 2019 roll call thread. I guess a lot will depend on if I can go part time an...
by TheTimeLord
Wed Jul 11, 2018 11:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bucket Portfolio article by Christine Benz
Replies: 85
Views: 6639

Re: Bucket Portfolio article by Christine Benz

The logic is that 1-2 years of cash from your portfolio allows you to sleep well and hopefully not sell in a panic. Stocks are volatile, but will typically grow if given enough time. Such as 10 years. You are simply trading off one set of risks for another. If stocks don't recover within 10 years y...
by TheTimeLord
Wed Jul 11, 2018 9:53 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Single Investment Fund
Replies: 13
Views: 1770

Re: Single Investment Fund

Not sure a single fund for both an IRA and taxable. But Vanguard's Tax Managed Balanced fund seems worth a look for the taxable portion. https://money.usnews.com/funds/mutual-f ... fund/vtmfx
by TheTimeLord
Wed Jul 11, 2018 9:46 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why not go 100% stocks?
Replies: 125
Views: 13874

Re: Why not go 100% stocks?

I wonder if you look across a 40 year or so working career whether 100% stocks would always beat any other combination. IF you never sell during a down market. Yes, a 100% stock portfolio has always outperformed a combination of stocks and intermediate bonds. Just curious but being 35, extremely hi...
by TheTimeLord
Wed Jul 11, 2018 9:42 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Any Dry Powder Strategies?
Replies: 103
Views: 6127

Re: Any Dry Powder Strategies?

Drypowder = Backupthetruck!- afaik this usually means ones recognized a superior investment opportunity or strategy to what ones currently in, and redeploys assets as such. Good Luck! If you listen to Jack Bogle or use the standard definition of dry powder virtually anyone who isn't 100/0 has "Dry ...
by TheTimeLord
Wed Jul 11, 2018 9:31 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Amazon won't sell this book to me.
Replies: 68
Views: 8565

Re: Amazon won't sell this book to me.

New data from the Consumer Intelligence Research shows that customers who spend $99 for an annual Prime membership go on to spend an average of $1,300 per year with the retailer, nearly double the amount spent by non-member customers. https://amp.businessinsider.com/images/595ff647f5018457018b4da6-...
by TheTimeLord
Wed Jul 11, 2018 9:29 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Amazon won't sell this book to me.
Replies: 68
Views: 8565

Re: Amazon won't sell this book to me.

New data from the Consumer Intelligence Research shows that customers who spend $99 for an annual Prime membership go on to spend an average of $1,300 per year with the retailer, nearly double the amount spent by non-member customers. https://amp.businessinsider.com/images/595ff647f5018457018b4da6-...
by TheTimeLord
Wed Jul 11, 2018 9:26 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why not go 100% stocks?
Replies: 125
Views: 13874

Re: Why not go 100% stocks?

I'm relatively young, 35, and plan to work for the next two decades. I'm in a dual physician household and enjoy working and being productive. I don't really enjoy site-seeing and traveling as much. My household income is approximately 900K with approximately 120K of annual expenses. My question is...
by TheTimeLord
Wed Jul 11, 2018 9:16 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Any Dry Powder Strategies?
Replies: 103
Views: 6127

Re: Any Dry Powder Strategies?

Drypowder = Backupthetruck!- afaik this usually means ones recognized a superior investment opportunity or strategy to what ones currently in, and redeploys assets as such. Good Luck! If you listen to Jack Bogle or use the standard definition of dry powder virtually anyone who isn't 100/0 has "Dry ...
by TheTimeLord
Wed Jul 11, 2018 9:13 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why not go 100% stocks?
Replies: 125
Views: 13874

Re: Why not go 100% stocks?

I'm relatively young, 35, and plan to work for the next two decades. I'm in a dual physician household and enjoy working and being productive. I don't really enjoy site-seeing and traveling as much. My household income is approximately 900K with approximately 120K of annual expenses. My question is...
by TheTimeLord
Wed Jul 11, 2018 9:04 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Any Dry Powder Strategies?
Replies: 103
Views: 6127

Re: Any Dry Powder Strategies?

With your "dry powder" being 60% equity, you are guaranteeing that you will be "selling low" with that portion. If this is away to automatically lock in losses for tax purposes, I guess it could make some sense. To review, this is all done in tax deferred accounts. Only the 40% bonds is dry powder....