Search found 5065 matches

by JoMoney
Mon Jun 18, 2018 12:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Very confused with the current market
Replies: 70
Views: 4775

Re: Very confused with the current market

You missed the 11% correction between 01/27/2018 and 02/08/2018

and 12.5% between 11/06/2015 and 02/11/2016
capcase wrote:
Sun Jun 17, 2018 2:34 pm
...
Please don't tell me I should not time the market. ...
Hopefully others can learn what not to do from your example.
by JoMoney
Sun Jun 17, 2018 1:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mechanisms for disappearance of factor premia -- how does it work for momentum?
Replies: 14
Views: 728

Re: Mechanisms for disappearance of factor premia -- how does it work for momentum?

Momentum investors lose when they get whipsawed too much in the process of trying to catch a trend. They can also get caught on the downturn when their strategy fails to execute at the theoretical model exit point. If/when liquidity drys up it can be very difficult to guarantee any specific executio...
by JoMoney
Sun Jun 17, 2018 12:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: how can i determine if Wellington only takes long stock positions?
Replies: 9
Views: 389

Re: how can i determine if Wellington only takes long stock positions?

The majority of mutual funds do not short stocks. "Long-Short" funds do exist, but with tight restrictions, and the fact that they short-sell would have to be disclosed as one of the risks in the prospectus. I see nothing in the prospectus, investment strategy, or risks associated with the Wellingto...
by JoMoney
Sun Jun 17, 2018 11:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A different theoretical view of SWR
Replies: 56
Views: 3030

Re: A different theoretical view of SWR

However, I will point out one fallacy of your proposed approach. You have deterministically set your retirement as a 30-year (or some other pre-specified period). No one knows how long they will live, therefore no one knows how long they will be retired. That is exactly right. Those so-called LMP a...
by JoMoney
Sun Jun 17, 2018 7:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A different theoretical view of SWR
Replies: 56
Views: 3030

Re: A different theoretical view of SWR

... at the age of 78, and you estimate that you have only 10 years left based on family history. Would you really be willing to stick to the plan and take out 10% every year? Probably not. If it were me, and I reached that point and I expected to need 10% of my portfolio for annual expenses I would...
by JoMoney
Sat Jun 16, 2018 12:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A different theoretical view of SWR
Replies: 56
Views: 3030

Re: A different theoretical view of SWR

Yup. But you'll still find people on this board who believe they need 50x expenses to fund 30 years :shock: When I've looked at withdrawals rates, basing it on life expectancy makes the most sense to me. In the later years you can likely use remaining balance to buy an immediate annuity to insure yo...
by JoMoney
Sat Jun 16, 2018 12:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Factor-based strategy is better (winer), OK. then who are the losers?
Replies: 55
Views: 2412

Re: Factor-based strategy is better (winer), OK. then who are the losers?

Do non-tilters benefit from others overweighting areas like SCV? If you’re bidding up the prices, am I just paying more for that sub asset class? I’m probably not asking my question in the best manner, I’ll admit. Depends on what you consider "benefit". People who own the broad market will get the ...
by JoMoney
Sat Jun 16, 2018 8:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Factor-based strategy is better (winer), OK. then who are the losers?
Replies: 55
Views: 2412

Re: Factor-based strategy is better (winer), OK. then who are the losers?

If not, then the SCV may be arbed away like other active strategies over time. Hasn't that already happened? I tend to think the excess gains from SCV have been more related to periodic irrational valuation differences, anyway. By 2010/11 after the 2008-09 losses had been recovered, I think the val...
by JoMoney
Fri Jun 15, 2018 2:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Flaw in Logic? CD ladder instead of bond funds
Replies: 61
Views: 3978

Re: Flaw in Logic? CD ladder instead of bond funds

^ Keep in mind, the BND has a duration over 6 years ... you would need a CD ladder with a pretty long maturity to get close to something comparable to that.
by JoMoney
Fri Jun 15, 2018 2:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Flaw in Logic? CD ladder instead of bond funds
Replies: 61
Views: 3978

Re: Flaw in Logic? CD ladder instead of bond funds

I don't think it is flawed. I have grown to have a preference for CDs over bond funds. I don't think "liquidity" is even a factor with CD's, you don't have to find someone to buy a CD you just cash it in with the bank. With some banks, you can do an early withdrawal from a CD via the banks online po...
by JoMoney
Fri Jun 15, 2018 1:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which boglehead rule do you break--and are ok with
Replies: 137
Views: 8631

Re: Which boglehead rule do you break--and are ok with

I think my style is still advice inspired by Jack Bogle, but there are things I do that seem to raise disagreement here: My "International" allocation is 0% I quarrel with tilters, while at the same time tilting myself- but away from small-caps and complex portfolios. I think owning a S&P 500 index ...
by JoMoney
Fri Jun 15, 2018 1:15 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Should I take possession of a certified mail?
Replies: 135
Views: 13630

Re: Should I take possession of a certified mail?

I see lots of posts stating they wouldn't accept the letter because it likely isn't anything good. However, I can't see a scenario where not accepting the letter would create a positive outcome and many scenarios where not accepting it would lead to a negative outcome. If it is a bill for services,...
by JoMoney
Fri Jun 15, 2018 3:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Rediscovering The Size Effect
Replies: 35
Views: 3252

Re: Larry Swedroe: Rediscovering The Size Effect

Interesting. The S&P indices also have a bit of light touch screening with regard to profitability, and seasoning requirements before an IPO is eligible for inclusion in the index. There are studies that point to S&P's indices and that the 'Value' factor doesn't show up. Also, when looking at the av...
by JoMoney
Thu Jun 14, 2018 5:31 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Long-term gains and Tax Bracket
Replies: 14
Views: 1488

Re: Long-term gains and Tax Bracket

... For example, say I'm a single earner for 2018, and I only have a W-2 for $10,000, and LTG (long-term gains) of $50,000. This puts me in the 22% bracket. How much tax would I owe in this overly-simplified example? More specifically, how is the W-2 taxed?... Others have given you a solid answer w...
by JoMoney
Thu Jun 14, 2018 4:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Factor-based strategy is better (winer), OK. then who are the losers?
Replies: 55
Views: 2412

Re: Factor-based strategy is better (winer), OK. then who are the losers?

... So maybe not outperformance but perhaps a better risk-adjusted return for myself. Which is still 'outperformance', and if people believe these are stocks with lower risk (but higher risk-adjusted returns) then that advantage can become over gleaned and self-defeating too as others attempt to do...
by JoMoney
Thu Jun 14, 2018 3:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Factor-based strategy is better (winer), OK. then who are the losers?
Replies: 55
Views: 2412

Re: Factor-based strategy is better (winer), OK. then who are the losers?

People buying growth funds/stocks in the case of value factor. This is a weird question for me. If the guy who invests 100% Netflix is the winner, who is the loser? I believe in the context that the "losers" were the ones that under-performed the broad markets return, that was available to anyone a...
by JoMoney
Thu Jun 14, 2018 2:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Interesting video from Ramsey today [How Ramsey Outperforms The Stock Market]
Replies: 124
Views: 9072

Re: Interesting video from Ramsey today [How Ramsey Outperforms The Stock Market]

What Ramsey describes, especially with regard to "Aggressive Growth" and "Growth and Income" were styles and names for funds I remember seeing as options in my 401k 20+ years ago. I figured he just never caught up with modern times, and naming conventions, and is stuck in a mindset that was probably...
by JoMoney
Thu Jun 14, 2018 2:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to Use Russell Small Cap Completeness Index Fund with SP500 to Mirror Total Stock Market.
Replies: 12
Views: 1228

Re: How to Use Russell Small Cap Completeness Index Fund with SP500 to Mirror Total Stock Market.

A completion index for the S&P 500 is about 50% mid-caps and 50% small-caps. Hard to be precise because there is no single agreed upon delineation between mid-caps and small-caps. Let's define small-caps as companies worth between 300 million to 2 billion, and mid-caps between 2 and 10 billion. Wou...
by JoMoney
Thu Jun 14, 2018 1:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is the Dow Jones Industrial Average a useful metric?
Replies: 22
Views: 865

Re: Is the Dow Jones Industrial Average a useful metric?

It has a longer continuous history than S&P's index, and has roughly captured the markets performance despite being an odd weighting of a haphazard assortment of stocks. It's considered a bit of a 'blue chip' index. It has options and futures that trade on the index itself as well as the individual ...
by JoMoney
Thu Jun 14, 2018 7:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New JUST ETF - thoughts?
Replies: 12
Views: 623

Re: New JUST ETF - thoughts?

I think the advantage of an ETF like this, is that investors that do agree with it can choose it, and then maybe the activists who try to influence board decisions and proxy votes can stop harassing Vanguard's broad market index funds and investors to support their proxy initiatives or drop stocks t...
by JoMoney
Thu Jun 14, 2018 7:34 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Russell 2000 Opinions
Replies: 8
Views: 624

Re: Russell 2000 Opinions

...I was reading some concerns on this forum regarding the Russell 2000 index. Others mentioned the tracking may have recently changed possibly for the better. I would like to be enlightened so I can make a decision to stay put or move to the DFSTX at the higher ER... I believe the criticism with t...
by JoMoney
Thu Jun 14, 2018 7:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New JUST ETF - thoughts?
Replies: 12
Views: 623

Re: New JUST ETF - thoughts?

Sounds like a slightly different take on "Socially Responsible Investing".
...just Capital’s board members, who include Deepak Chopra and Arianna Huffington—seem almost designed to elicit eye-rolling and snark...
Yup.
by JoMoney
Thu Jun 14, 2018 4:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to Use Russell Small Cap Completeness Index Fund with SP500 to Mirror Total Stock Market.
Replies: 12
Views: 1228

Re: How to Use Russell Small Cap Completeness Index Fund with SP500 to Mirror Total Stock Market.

As was already mentioned, where the line is between "small" and "mid" is up to different interpretations. The Russell Small Cap Completeness Index is everything that's in the Russell 3000 (Total Stock Market) that's not in the S&P 500. Therefore is should be pretty much the same as Vanguard Extended...
by JoMoney
Wed Jun 13, 2018 6:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 1 Year Rule - Not allowed to execute new investment strategy until 1 year has passed
Replies: 27
Views: 2381

Re: 1 Year Rule - Not allowed to execute new investment strategy until 1 year has passed

I think it's an indication you haven't resolved what type of investor you are, if you're an active investor it may be to strict. If you're a passive investor and you find yourself trying to tweak things that frequently, you don't have accepting the markets return right either. You can be a passive ...
by JoMoney
Wed Jun 13, 2018 5:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Share buy back programs- the new dividend?
Replies: 6
Views: 553

Re: Share buy back programs- the new dividend?

A lot of buybacks don't really reduce the number of shares outstanding because they are then given to employees as compensation... Even if the net equity reduction was negative or zero after employees being given equity as compensation, it's still increasing the shareholders stake relative to the c...
by JoMoney
Wed Jun 13, 2018 5:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Share buy back programs- the new dividend?
Replies: 6
Views: 553

Re: Share buy back programs- the new dividend?

-We are not at "all time lows for dividend yields". They were lower late 90's-2000. -Buybacks have been a thing, of gradually growing impact since they were legalized in the early 1980's. -I would have to pay taxes on a cash dividend, so the effect to me is not the same. Outside of taxes, and outsid...
by JoMoney
Wed Jun 13, 2018 2:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Any problem opening fund "Investor", then building to "Admiral"?
Replies: 25
Views: 1542

Re: Any problem opening fund "Investor", then building to "Admiral"?

I'm not aware of any "problem" doing that. I think it's an ideal way to do it.... average in over time. Don't let the slightly higher expense ratio of the investor class funds discourage you. It's likely even smaller in dollar terms then the lower % ER on a high balance in Admiral shares. Once you'v...
by JoMoney
Wed Jun 13, 2018 2:26 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Should I take possession of a certified mail?
Replies: 135
Views: 13630

Re: Should I take possession of a certified mail?

...unless it's a letter from rich Uncle Elmer's estate attorney, an unexpected certified letter is rarely something good. I agree with that, but I think ignoring the letter is more likely to hurt in the long term. Whatever it is, will eventually come back around. Better to start documenting your ow...
by JoMoney
Wed Jun 13, 2018 2:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Deep History of Stock & Bond Returns
Replies: 75
Views: 4840

Re: The Deep History of Stock & Bond Returns

... It's interesting that inflation is so low. When and why did modern-era inflation set in? When money/bonds stopped being backed by a fixed physical commodity gold/silver standard. I'll add, that I'm not a proponent of a gold standard (or any other physical commodity). I think there's something t...
by JoMoney
Wed Jun 13, 2018 1:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Deep History of Stock & Bond Returns
Replies: 75
Views: 4840

Re: The Deep History of Stock & Bond Returns

I'm suspicious of even the 1.8% real return on bonds in the 1900's
Half the period had 0 real return
by JoMoney
Wed Jun 13, 2018 1:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bottom hit for bond market?
Replies: 7
Views: 1585

Re: Bottom hit for bond market?

Here's a thought: You make money in bonds in the coupon yield. At maturity, you only get back the principal. Maybe you should hope people get out of bonds, so higher yields have to be offered to attract investors. If you're invested in bonds that you plan to sell before maturity, you might get a sho...
by JoMoney
Wed Jun 13, 2018 5:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 1 Year Rule - Not allowed to execute new investment strategy until 1 year has passed
Replies: 27
Views: 2381

Re: 1 Year Rule - Not allowed to execute new investment strategy until 1 year has passed

I think it's an indication you haven't resolved what type of investor you are, if you're an active investor it may be to strict. If you're a passive investor and you find yourself trying to tweak things that frequently, you don't have accepting the markets return right either.
by JoMoney
Wed Jun 13, 2018 4:13 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why don't we index the Nasdaq too?
Replies: 16
Views: 1967

Re: Why don't we index the Nasdaq too?

Just wondering.. we index the TSM, the S&P500, the TISM.. why not the Nasdaq? Fidelity has a fund that does that FWIW. In your own statement, you gave an example of an index fund that does. So quite obviously people do. Who is this "we" you speak of? What is the defining characteristic that defines...
by JoMoney
Wed Jun 13, 2018 4:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Low inflation caused by e-commerce?
Replies: 15
Views: 1695

Re: Low inflation caused by e-commerce?

e-commerce created competition local businesses didn't have before In the past, if a local businesses rent went up, if local wages went up, they would raise their prices and the customers would have to consider how far away they'd be willing to travel to find a better price. It also created a glut o...
by JoMoney
Wed Jun 13, 2018 3:26 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Should I take possession of a certified mail?
Replies: 135
Views: 13630

Re: Should I take possession of a certified mail?

My suspicion would be that they want the record to substantiate something as a legal record, likely for court. I wouldn't have a good feeling about it, but I would accept it and open it, because it will need to be responded to. If he's trying to bill you, you will need to respond and refute the bill...
by JoMoney
Wed Jun 13, 2018 1:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why does CAPM make sense?
Replies: 23
Views: 1012

Re: Why does CAPM make sense?

Measuring the market's "beta" and comparing it to another portfolios "beta", is a way to see how much that other portfolio is deviating away from the market (at least in terms of it's being more volatile). The problem is, in the past, you could have defined and constructed a portfolio on other "risk...
by JoMoney
Wed Jun 13, 2018 1:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why does CAPM make sense?
Replies: 23
Views: 1012

Re: Why does CAPM make sense?

... And so am I (particularly so with US multi-billion dollar caps). I don't disagree on that at all. All I disagree on is the claim that past volatility of any stock or class of stocks predicts future returns. It's been pretty well documented that higher volatility stocks don't necessarily earn mo...
by JoMoney
Wed Jun 13, 2018 12:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why does CAPM make sense?
Replies: 23
Views: 1012

Re: Why does CAPM make sense?

I'm fairly new on this forum, and from my previous post, it seems like virtually everyone here is a very strong believer in CAPM, talking repeatedly of "risk adjusted" returns. I, however, don't get it at all. I will repost something I said in a previous post. (For an arbitrarily chosen stock) Thir...
by JoMoney
Wed Jun 13, 2018 12:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do Small Caps Outperform?
Replies: 61
Views: 3799

Re: Do Small Caps Outperform?

FWIW, Prof. Siegel's small-cap stock data set is different then what Ibbotson or Fama-French small-cap use (I believe his is something like the bottom 20% of the NYSE spliced to the Russell 2000)... Regardless, these were not investable portfolios / funds and the longest time period is retroactivel...
by JoMoney
Tue Jun 12, 2018 2:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tilt tward small & mid capital for 1 to 2% more return
Replies: 13
Views: 954

Re: Tilt tward small & mid capital for 1 to 2% more return

That's a lot of assumptions.... why stop there? If we're imagining all sorts of things ... lets imagine a 20 year period like 1979-1999 where Vanguard's S&P 500 index had a CAGR of 17.6%
by JoMoney
Tue Jun 12, 2018 1:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do Small Caps Outperform?
Replies: 61
Views: 3799

Re: Do Small Caps Outperform?

FWIW, Prof. Siegel's small-cap stock data set is different then what Ibbotson or Fama-French small-cap use (I believe his is something like the bottom 20% of the NYSE spliced to the Russell 2000)... Regardless, these were not investable portfolios / funds and the longest time period is retroactively...
by JoMoney
Tue Jun 12, 2018 7:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do Small Caps Outperform?
Replies: 61
Views: 3799

Re: Do Small Caps Outperform?

...Are you saying that is what Jeremy Siegel says, or that is what you have also concluded? ... FWIW, it's what Jeremy Siegel wrote and provided a graphic of in his book "Stocks For The Long Run", he's changed the statement in newer versions removing an emphasis he provided in earlier versions rega...
by JoMoney
Tue Jun 12, 2018 12:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do Small Caps Outperform?
Replies: 61
Views: 3799

Re: Do Small Caps Outperform?

http://i.imgs.fyi/img/3i29.png Here's another chart showing micro , small , and mid caps . Not what one would expect under the premise of a "small cap premium" I'll add, that there advocates that look at this and proclaim that mid-caps are the way to go, or that one should load up bonds that are at...
by JoMoney
Tue Jun 12, 2018 12:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P 500 International Revenue
Replies: 3
Views: 288

Re: S&P 500 International Revenue

I haven't done any looking into it yet, but it would not surprise me if companies suddenly started declaring more revenue as sourced in the U.S. given the tax changes that went into affect this year.
by JoMoney
Mon Jun 11, 2018 11:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why does Vanguard 500 have Conduent?
Replies: 2
Views: 400

Re: Why does Vanguard 500 have Conduent?

Interesting, in the most frequent N-Q filing it was 4 shares, in the prior quarter it was 3 shares, prior to that 4... weird
by JoMoney
Mon Jun 11, 2018 2:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Yes, you can diversify a market portfolio
Replies: 190
Views: 9314

Re: Yes, you can diversify a market portfolio

columbia wrote:
Mon Jun 11, 2018 2:43 pm
My understanding is that time travel is likely only possible for moving forward in time. :)
But you can re-write history, as long as nobody observed it.
https://youtu.be/8ORLN_KwAgs
by JoMoney
Mon Jun 11, 2018 2:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: WSJ-- Next Stop for Mutual-Fund Fees: Zero
Replies: 40
Views: 4129

Re: WSJ-- Next Stop for Mutual-Fund Fees: Zero

From OP's original link: ......Third, mutual funds are increasingly finding that they can generate income from nonfee sources. In fiscal 2017, the Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund earned more than 63% of its expenses by lending securities.... [/b] That is pretty darn amazing to read, at least...