Search found 6204 matches

by JoMoney
Tue Dec 11, 2018 5:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: John Bogle Talks About His Best & Worst Financial Bets
Replies: 4
Views: 813

Re: John Bogle Talks About His Best & Worst Financial Bets

Paywalled. Cliff's Notes??? ... Worst Bet: Merging Wellington Management Co. with Thorndike, Doran, Paine & Lewis Inc. Best Bet: Founding the Vanguard S&P 500 index fund ...everything a person needs to know about investing can be put on a 3x5 index card. 1. Own the entire stock market. “The S&P 500...
by JoMoney
Tue Dec 11, 2018 5:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 406
Views: 46028

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

I'm going to see if bumping this thread will move stocks up. They appear to have difficulty in determining which direction to go today. It worked - we are in the green today! Apparently the effect was short-lived. :| You need to think more contrarian... bumping this thread kills the rally. If you w...
by JoMoney
Tue Dec 11, 2018 4:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Article: Your love of index funds is terrible for our economy
Replies: 58
Views: 5905

Re: Article: Your love of index funds is terrible for our economy

Given that there are several successful investors that suggest most people use index funds (Warren Buffett, David Swensen)... I wonder if there's a correlation of poor-performing active investors lamenting that index funds are bad.
by JoMoney
Tue Dec 11, 2018 4:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shrinking dividends?
Replies: 29
Views: 3637

Re: Shrinking dividends?

The post-WWII dividend payout ratio (% of earnings paid out) on stocks was considerably lower than the period before that. The earnings growth on the retained earnings in the lower payout period commensurately went up. Jeremy Siegel discusses this in "Stocks For The Long Run". Prior to 1982, stock b...
by JoMoney
Tue Dec 11, 2018 4:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 406
Views: 46028

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Until we're back to making new high's, it should be "stocks continue to SORE"
by JoMoney
Mon Dec 10, 2018 1:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International underperformance - how to break it down
Replies: 52
Views: 4009

Re: International underperformance - how to break it down

jalbert wrote:
Mon Dec 10, 2018 1:24 pm
You are more likely to lose money than make money by betting against the efficient market hypothesis.
How does that happen if the market is "efficient"? Who would be getting the lost money?
by JoMoney
Mon Dec 10, 2018 1:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Article: Your love of index funds is terrible for our economy
Replies: 58
Views: 5905

Re: Article: Your love of index funds is terrible for our economy

If most people index in the future, it might make stock picking slightly more lucrative. Until active funds can consistently beat the index, it's their problem to fix. problem is, it would be impossible for most active investors to beat themselves... the only way for sub-par managers to make a buck...
by JoMoney
Mon Dec 10, 2018 12:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Realistic for a company to distribute a dividend to shareholders but not have its price adjusted?
Replies: 7
Views: 355

Re: Realistic for a company to distribute a dividend to shareholders but not have its NAV adjusted?

mhalley wrote:
Mon Dec 10, 2018 12:52 pm
Sounds like an accounting nightmare.
Sounds like fraud. Kind of hard to distribute cash but not reflect that on the balance sheet.
by JoMoney
Mon Dec 10, 2018 12:49 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Electric bill with LED
Replies: 100
Views: 6319

Re: Electric bill with LED

I've found that the old rule that LEDs are more expensive than CFLs has ceased to be true, for some time. And the cost to go from CFL to LED is noticeable. Home Depot is selling "60 watt" LED bulbs for 12¢ less than CFLs. I've gotten some at dollar/99cent store(s) https://www.dollartree.com/bulk/Le...
by JoMoney
Mon Dec 10, 2018 12:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Article: Your love of index funds is terrible for our economy
Replies: 58
Views: 5905

Re: Article: Your love of index funds is terrible for our economy

Did it also call Index Funders unpatriotic? :D There's quite a thrashing going on against folks who just buy a U.S. Broad Market index fund and call it good enough. The international crowd calls it jingoistic xenophobia, and the active crowd calls it unpatriotic. But I suppose we'll have to just ge...
by JoMoney
Mon Dec 10, 2018 12:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Article: Your love of index funds is terrible for our economy
Replies: 58
Views: 5905

Re: Article: Your love of index funds is terrible for our economy

1) True.. but so does every other form of purchasing/selling stocks. Active funds certinly don't prevent it. 2) How good is that "stock analysis" to begin with? 3) ... https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2475150 ... Our findings suggest that passive mutual funds influence firms’ gove...
by JoMoney
Mon Dec 10, 2018 12:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 8542
Views: 1671066

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Investing in stocks seems so weird. You have to expect to lose a bunch of money periodically, and that this is a good thing and not a bad thing because you can buy even more at lower prices and that the stock market is just joining AA to correct it's excesses and become a better person. It's like e...
by JoMoney
Mon Dec 10, 2018 11:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 8542
Views: 1671066

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Times like this are always good for checking your risk tolerance; you know, the allocation you set while stocks were going up the last 10 years . Heard someone say that if you are checking on your portfolio every day and following this thread all the time your stock allocation might need some adjus...
by JoMoney
Mon Dec 10, 2018 9:01 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Electric bill with LED
Replies: 100
Views: 6319

Re: Electric bill with LED

Lighting makes up a negligible part of my electric usage. The big ones are air conditioning and the refrigerator. For me, the advantage of the new bulbs is they last practically forever and rarely need to be replaced.
by JoMoney
Mon Dec 10, 2018 8:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 8542
Views: 1671066

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

J G Bankerton wrote:
Mon Dec 10, 2018 8:40 am
The freefall is over, US futures are up. Oh fudge, I was going to buy one more dip..
Barely up, and the market isn't even open yet.
Is "oh fudge" supposed to be a negative? I like fudge.... Ohhh fudge Mmm... 😋
by JoMoney
Mon Dec 10, 2018 8:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Receiving 2FA codes from Vanguard while overseas
Replies: 25
Views: 3123

Re: Receiving 2FA codes from Vanguard while overseas

I set up 2FA after Vanguard said do it or lose account access. Used it once to verify it works. Didn't use it again until a few days ago. The site responded to my logon as if 2FA didn't exist. I was surprised, to say the least. Anybody have an explanation? The only time I get a 2FA challenge is whe...
by JoMoney
Mon Dec 10, 2018 7:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard total corporate VTC: Why is the yield so low compared to its parts?
Replies: 9
Views: 789

Re: Vanguard total corporate VTC: Why is the yield so low compared to its parts?

I would think the advantage of a 'Total Corporate' bond fund, would be that there should be lower turnover, the fund isn't constantly having to sell bonds and buy new ones within its target maturity/duration. Theoretically it could buy a long-term bond and hold all the way to maturity ...but with Va...
by JoMoney
Sun Dec 09, 2018 2:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: ITOT $60, VTI $134 [iShares Total US vs. Vanguard Total Market]
Replies: 16
Views: 1281

Re: ITOT $60, VTI $134

MotoTrojan wrote:
Sun Dec 09, 2018 2:24 pm
... I haven't dug deep but ITOT is the S&P1500 while VTI is the CRSP Total Market, so these look to be not substantially identical to me; could be a 4th fund to harvest into...
ITOT is no longer the S&P 1500, they changed the index the fund tracks to the "S&P Total Market Index"
by JoMoney
Sun Dec 09, 2018 12:05 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: are pre-fabricated / manufactured homes a bad investment?
Replies: 99
Views: 6525

Re: are manufactured homes a bad investment?

The "investment" is in the property, the real estate. The structure that sits on it is just a box of wood and plastic that depreciates and rots in the elements. I don't know that a manufactured home depreciates any faster than ones built other ways, my point is that's not the part of real estate tha...
by JoMoney
Sun Dec 09, 2018 10:57 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: ITOT $60, VTI $134 [iShares Total US vs. Vanguard Total Market]
Replies: 16
Views: 1281

Re: ITOT $60, VTI $134

... why would I not choose ITOT? Because there's typically a couple cent spread on the market price per share, the lower price share might mean a higher spread cost as a percentage of investment being eaten up at every transaction buy/sell. Because Vanguard has a more investor friendly business str...
by JoMoney
Sun Dec 09, 2018 10:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do long-term bonds belong in one's portfolio?
Replies: 154
Views: 7358

Re: Do long-term bonds belong in one's portfolio?

I think the data shows that the most diversifying bond to an S&P 500 (lowest correlation) equity portfolio is the 30 year US Treasury (nominal) bond. The 30 year zero coupon US Treasury bond is more volatile than the S&P 500, though (that number is old, but I have no reason to believe it is no long...
by JoMoney
Sun Dec 09, 2018 10:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do long-term bonds belong in one's portfolio?
Replies: 154
Views: 7358

Re: Do long-term bonds belong in one's portfolio?

... and from 1940 to 1980 Long Bonds DECREASED "efficiency" (Sharpe ratio)
by JoMoney
Sat Dec 08, 2018 11:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Has anyone adjusted their stock allocation on the dip?
Replies: 39
Views: 3255

Re: Has anyone adjusted their stock allocation on the dip?

The dip is causing my portfolios allocation to be adjusted without me doing anything.
by JoMoney
Sat Dec 08, 2018 1:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is a company's stock buyback optional or mandatory for individual shareholders?
Replies: 7
Views: 630

Re: Is a company's stock buyback optional or mandatory for individual shareholders?

Buybacks are typically done on the open market, so it would be optional whether or not any individual investor decides to sell their shares. Mergers and acquisitions might cause an entire company to be purchased, in which case they may not have a choice to sell their shares at whatever price the the...
by JoMoney
Sat Dec 08, 2018 12:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Goodhart's law
Replies: 1
Views: 379

Re: Goodhart's law

indexlover wrote:
Sat Dec 08, 2018 11:55 am
... Can the FED actively target the entire yield curve ? how ?
Depends what you mean by "actively target the entire yield curve"
The Fed's Operation Twist
by JoMoney
Sat Dec 08, 2018 11:39 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is 401k or IRA better? and how do you value the backdoor Roth?
Replies: 7
Views: 732

Re: Is 401k or IRA better? and how do you value the backdoor Roth?

... I am switching jobs and I have my old 401k and a cash balance plan pension that I need to pull out. My understanding is that if I dump the two aggregate accounts into a IRA it would be a Traditional IRA since both of these have pre-tax contributions. If this happens I will be subject to the pro...
by JoMoney
Sat Dec 08, 2018 10:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Who else is getting excited? [about the market]
Replies: 139
Views: 11870

Re: Who else is getting excited? [about the market]

Afaik there is no Defined Benefit scheme that provides more than 70 per cent of final salary cpi indexed. Such would be almost actusrially Impossible. Is there such a scheme in US public sector, say? Last year, more than 5,400 UC retirees received pensions over $100,000. Someone without a pension w...
by JoMoney
Sat Dec 08, 2018 10:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do long-term bonds belong in one's portfolio?
Replies: 154
Views: 7358

Re: Do long-term bonds belong in one's portfolio?

I have thought about this as well and in fact posted similar ideas. Ultimately I have decided against them as the core of my bond allocation. 1) Because duration is so long, it may be many years for prices to recover. Many investors do not have that long of a timeframe, especially on the bond side....
by JoMoney
Sat Dec 08, 2018 9:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Who else is getting excited? [about the market]
Replies: 139
Views: 11870

Re: Who else is getting excited? [about the market]

... Is there such a scheme in US public sector, say? Pretty much only in government. Under the older system, military could get 50% at 20 years, 75% and at 30 years, 100% at 40 years... and potentially tax free treatment of some percentage depending on disabilities incurred while in service, and me...
by JoMoney
Sat Dec 08, 2018 8:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 8542
Views: 1671066

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Between the Santa Claus rally and January effect, we should have a seasonal boom :mrgreen: https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/santaclauseffect.asp A Santa Claus rally describes sustained increases in the stock market that occur in the last week of December through the first two trading days in Jan...
by JoMoney
Sat Dec 08, 2018 7:58 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Health insurance for FIRE [Financial Independence Retire Early]
Replies: 83
Views: 6319

Re: Health insurance for FIRE

... I would personally rather see health insurance mandated for all, which would bring down prices and allow people to buy into the ACA for the same rates as group plans. Until then, the current system is what we've got... The current system did mandate insurance for all (until next year), and whil...
by JoMoney
Sat Dec 08, 2018 6:29 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Need hotel near LAX
Replies: 13
Views: 1174

Re: Need hotel near LAX

by JoMoney
Fri Dec 07, 2018 3:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Allocation, timing, volatility
Replies: 7
Views: 686

Re: Allocation, timing, volatility

I would maintain my allocation per my plan. If it calls for rebalancing on a particular date, or when a particular threshold or band is breached, then do it. I have no idea whether stocks will go lower or higher in the short term (neither does anybody else). Personally, I'm still in accumulation pha...
by JoMoney
Fri Dec 07, 2018 12:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Brokerage able to create a mutual fund offering with only one single stock (and nothing else besides cash holdings)?
Replies: 9
Views: 362

Re: Brokerage able to create a mutual fund offering with only one single stock (and nothing else besides cash holdings)?

I have not seen a fund with more than 5% in one stock. I don't think they can go over that. They can, it just potentially makes the fund "non diversified" and that needs to be disclosed to investors. There are many sector funds, single country funds, and niche index funds that have well over 5% in ...
by JoMoney
Fri Dec 07, 2018 12:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The overwhelming majority lose in a zero-sum trading game.
Replies: 52
Views: 5183

Re: The overwhelming majority lose in a zero-sum trading game.

... Quite frankly, I just like knowing an actual human is at the helm assessing whatever the current situation, such as like the volatile times we're in now. I just can't believe no one has any idea at all about what to do. For one, it's not possible for me to believe that because I can't unlearn m...
by JoMoney
Fri Dec 07, 2018 12:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Brokerage able to create a mutual fund offering with only one single stock (and nothing else besides cash holdings)?
Replies: 9
Views: 362

Re: Brokerage able to create a mutual fund offering with only one single stock (and nothing else besides cash holdings)?

There are prohibitions on certain kinds of things being offered as mutual funds, and require investors to be "qualified" like Hedge Funds... I'm not sure about the particulars though. I know there are mutual funds that are considered "focus funds" that have very few holdings (like 15-30 individual s...
by JoMoney
Fri Dec 07, 2018 12:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Brokerage able to create a mutual fund offering with only one single stock (and nothing else besides cash holdings)?
Replies: 9
Views: 362

Re: Brokerage able to create a mutual fund offering with only one single stock (and nothing else besides cash holdings)?

Probably. It would be considered "non-diversified", and I would question who would want to own it, but it's potentially something that could happen... buy why? My workplace retirement plan offers a company stock fund that essentially is just buying the company stock, trades like a mutual fund (but d...
by JoMoney
Fri Dec 07, 2018 11:55 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Health insurance for FIRE [Financial Independence Retire Early]
Replies: 83
Views: 6319

Re: Health insurance for FIRE [Financial Independence Retire Early]

lostdog wrote:
Fri Dec 07, 2018 8:54 am
Reading this stuff makes me want to move to a country with universal health care.
Would that actually make it less costly, or is it just trading insurance premiums for higher taxes?
by JoMoney
Thu Dec 06, 2018 7:20 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Health insurance for FIRE [Financial Independence Retire Early]
Replies: 83
Views: 6319

Re: Health insurance for FIRE

Seems like FIRE with income less than four times the federal poverty level and qualify for a subsidy (MFJ) or be prepared to shell out $20k, increasing at X% (6,8,10%) compounded every year to age 65. Or I guess go without insurance and take your chances...... You never take your chances as long as...
by JoMoney
Thu Dec 06, 2018 6:39 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Health insurance for FIRE [Financial Independence Retire Early]
Replies: 83
Views: 6319

Re: Health insurance for FIRE

It seems like the cost of healthcare is prohibitive of FIRE for many people thus making the whole industry (books, blogs, advice, internet sites, magazine articles) BUNK. I don't think FIRE advocates claim that most people will be able to do it, it would be economically catastrophic if everyone ret...
by JoMoney
Thu Dec 06, 2018 6:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The overwhelming majority lose in a zero-sum trading game.
Replies: 52
Views: 5183

Re: The overwhelming majority lose in a zero-sum trading game.

Many (perhaps most) gamblers would lose to the house even if casinos had zero edge on their games, simply because most have poor bankroll management and take on too much risk pretty much guaranteeing eventual ruin / bankroll depletion when a bad sequence occurs, it is inevitable if too much risk is ...
by JoMoney
Thu Dec 06, 2018 5:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why are market corrections "healthy"?
Replies: 27
Views: 1997

Re: Why are market corrections "healthy"?

Sometimes the market piles up too much of it's own crap. It's like having a regular BM, healthy.
by JoMoney
Thu Dec 06, 2018 4:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 8542
Views: 1671066

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

... With the fervor I keep hearing before the market even opens today, I'm going to take the contrary position that it will close with very little change from yesterdays close, Friday's close will be an up day. A guess, but just as sound as any other guess I suppose. It is/was... just a contrarian ...
by JoMoney
Thu Dec 06, 2018 8:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 8542
Views: 1671066

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

With the fervor I keep hearing before the market even opens today, I'm going to take the contrary position that it will close with very little change from yesterdays close, Friday's close will be an up day.
by JoMoney
Wed Dec 05, 2018 11:38 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Health insurance for FIRE [Financial Independence Retire Early]
Replies: 83
Views: 6319

Re: Health insurance for FIRE

I see three options: Manage your income to try and qualify for a subsidy and hope that doesn't change. If your money is in IRA, using a "FIRE Roth IRA conversion ladder" can help manage your income easier than 72t SEPP withdrawals. Take on more risk by not having coverage, having a lower cost catast...
by JoMoney
Wed Dec 05, 2018 11:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why buying homes with mortgages is good but buying stocks on margin is bad
Replies: 36
Views: 2890

Re: Why buying homes with mortgages is good but buying stocks on margin is bad

I don't see margin as morally wrong or anything, but it is a lot more risk for less return (based on the cost to borrow). It can very easily turn a positive investing experience into a negative one. I don't believe a mortgage is a "good" thing, but one that does make it better than margin borrowing ...
by JoMoney
Wed Dec 05, 2018 3:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What percent of Managers beat the market BEFORE fees?
Replies: 94
Views: 5944

Re: What percent of Managers beat the market BEFORE fees?

What percent of Managers beat the market before they charge their Fees? According to S&P research, about 20% of U.S. domestic equity funds beat the market before fees. It drops to 12% after fees. https://us.spindices.com/documents/research/research-spiva-institutional-scorecard-how-much-do-fees-aff...
by JoMoney
Mon Dec 03, 2018 11:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Can a three fund portfolio beat a fool?
Replies: 47
Views: 2876

Re: Can a three fund portfolio beat a fool?

... Why would you get involved with your family's finances without them asking for help? The average Boglehead will drive to your house and stab you if you suggest you know more than them about investing. :shock: This is absolutely not true. Many Bogleheads use UBER or LYFT, some don't even own cars.
by JoMoney
Mon Dec 03, 2018 9:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Can a three fund portfolio beat a fool?
Replies: 47
Views: 2876

Re: Can a three fund portfolio beat a fool?

I don't worry about it. I index because my intent is to match the broad market with very low fees, and avoid all the risks that inherently come with stock picking and various styles and strategies. With a broad-market index fund I know I'm taking on a broad-average of stock market risk, which may no...