Search found 4609 matches

by JoMoney
Thu Feb 22, 2018 11:25 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Boglehead Flashlight?
Replies: 60
Views: 3955

Re: Boglehead Flashlight?

I got a small "rugged" LED flashlight at the .99cent store.
Very convenient, fits in pocket, maybe not the brightest LED out there, but hard to beat in the bang-for-buck category, and the size is perfect for my purposes.
by JoMoney
Thu Feb 22, 2018 10:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: why Vanguard short-term bond instead of CD
Replies: 31
Views: 3193

Re: why Vanguard short-term bond instead of CD

Nothing wrong with a CD, but I can use Federal Money Market and Short-Term Treasury Index (or longer term) fund and tune the relative duration to match a CD ladder of similar length and get the simplicity of not having additional accounts floating around to manage, and Vanguard accounts make naming...
by JoMoney
Wed Feb 21, 2018 10:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: why Vanguard short-term bond instead of CD
Replies: 31
Views: 3193

Re: why Vanguard short-term bond instead of CD

Nothing wrong with a CD, but I can use Federal Money Market and Short-Term Treasury Index (or longer term) fund and tune the relative duration to match a CD ladder of similar length and get the simplicity of not having additional accounts floating around to manage, and Vanguard accounts make naming ...
by JoMoney
Sat Feb 17, 2018 3:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Yields Spreads and the Economy
Replies: 8
Views: 872

Re: Yields Spreads and the Economy

Yes, yield spreads are recognized as economic indicators... so is the stock market... that's the way markets work, trying to price in expected changes to the economy. The big question for an investor though is how is it actionable? It doesn't give you any advantage after the fact to see that the mar...
by JoMoney
Sat Feb 17, 2018 3:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: GMO forecast
Replies: 20
Views: 2037

Re: GMO forecast

GMO is a firm ran by Jeremy Grantham, a smart, skeptical, well spoken guy... but a perma-bear... and his forecast record/ranking reflects that https://www.cxoadvisory.com/gurus/ https://www.cxoadvisory.com/3200/individual-gurus/jeremy-grantham/ It hasn't done well for investors to be so bearish... b...
by JoMoney
Fri Feb 16, 2018 4:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Not to Get Rich - Mark Twain
Replies: 17
Views: 3439

Re: How Not to Get Rich - Mark Twain

Just finished reading "How Not to Get Rich: The Financial Misadventures of Mark Twain" https://www.amazon.com/How-Not-Get-Rich-Misadventures-ebook/dp/B01MXXZZNJ/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1518790002&sr=8-1&keywords=how+not+to+get+rich . He was never poor by any means, but it's Interesting that a man wi...
by JoMoney
Fri Feb 16, 2018 4:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retirees: The common sense withdrawal method
Replies: 159
Views: 13934

Re: Retirees: The common sense withdrawal method

It's hard to model "common sense", I think it could be argued that what is "common" makes very little "sense"... but a typical person who is disciplined enough to save money across there working life can probably work out something that works... maybe even have a hard time spending down everything t...
by JoMoney
Thu Feb 15, 2018 12:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wisdom of Bitcoin
Replies: 90
Views: 6864

Re: Wisdom of Bitcoin

I wonder where these cyrpto "assets" are determined to be held? Even beyond reporting for taxes, if you own enough of it, is there potential FBAR requirements? Running afoul of that, even if you don't owe taxes could be a rough penalty.
by JoMoney
Wed Feb 14, 2018 11:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is the most the stock market has ever been down in 5 year period?
Replies: 19
Views: 2994

Re: What is the most the stock market has ever been down in 5 year period?

Here's a link the Ibbotson Large-Cap stock charts (which is essentially the S&P index) on Morningstar going back to 1925 The Morningstar charts have the option to choose 'rolling returns' and a 60month (5 year) period so you can see it rolling over different periods: IA SBBI US Large Stock TR USD Ib...
by JoMoney
Wed Feb 14, 2018 3:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Derivative Danger
Replies: 4
Views: 498

Re: Derivative Danger

... Thoughts? The Munger quotes about derivatives and shady practices brought this article back to mind https://www.marketwatch.com/story/how-wall-streets-fear-gauge-is-being-rigged-according-to-one-whistleblower-2018-02-13 ^-Regardless if there is corruption involved or not, I think there are seri...
by JoMoney
Tue Feb 13, 2018 8:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Attention Sqawk Box viewers
Replies: 16
Views: 1548

Re: Attention Sqawk Box viewers

It's good background noise, interesting enough but not too interesting, if there is an important news event they'll chime in on it, they don't focus too much on political news and when they do their 'narrative' is more middle of the road and less inflammatory then other cable "news" channels.
by JoMoney
Sun Feb 11, 2018 10:24 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What to invest in ?
Replies: 8
Views: 778

Re: What to invest in ?

There are things like non-traded REITS, Master Limited Partnerships, Preferred Stocks, Warrants, all sorts of weird derivatives like credit swaps, futures, options, Absolute Return Strategies/trading strategies/Hedge Funds, insurance based products (like viatical settlements, reinsurance), private e...
by JoMoney
Sat Feb 10, 2018 4:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Just how safe is a short-term corporate bond fund?
Replies: 35
Views: 3311

Re: Just how safe is a short-term corporate bond fund?

livesoft wrote:
Sat Feb 10, 2018 3:46 pm
... but I would not expect to lose 10% with a Total US bond index fund either...
Maybe not expected, but it has happened (or at least in the index the fund tracks) if the situation was bad enough
Morningstar Chart
09/01/1979 - 03/01/1980 ( -12.5% )
by JoMoney
Sat Feb 10, 2018 3:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Unwise for High-Earner to Contribute to Traditional IRA?
Replies: 20
Views: 1631

Re: Unwise for High-Earner to Contribute to Traditional IRA?

... Speaking as someone who contributed to a non-deductible traditional IRA during just a few good years... if you do that, just kill yourself now, so you can avoid the curse of a lifetime of 8606 filings. ... Wow :shock: :shock: :shock: Why the harshness on keeping track of your after-tax basis in...
by JoMoney
Sat Feb 10, 2018 1:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Day trading for a living/career?
Replies: 95
Views: 6652

Re: Day trading for a living/career?

...Also, why do we give the "big boys" and "money makers" so much credit just because they get faster trades in or know more stuff or whatever?... To some extent, because SOME OF THEM really do have an advantage, and when you are trading against them it's like a hidden expense. The market makers li...
by JoMoney
Sat Feb 10, 2018 10:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Day trading for a living/career?
Replies: 95
Views: 6652

Re: Day trading for a living/career?

I've seen people make it work for awhile, but my impression is that most of them were "picking up pennies in front of a steam roller". They had a strategy, but nothing that could be shown to have a positive expected value. In my estimation the strategies usually boiled down to overly complex version...
by JoMoney
Sat Feb 10, 2018 8:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 5600
Views: 1266556

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

...Whether this is "just a correction" or whatever it is, a level of comfort has returned finally seeing some volatility... Granted we have seen an actual fall of 10% off the highs, but this volatility, especially in the intra-day and overnight makes me wonder how much of it might be explained by f...
by JoMoney
Sat Feb 10, 2018 2:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to deal with regret
Replies: 87
Views: 7427

Re: How to deal with regret

BEFORE you lumped in, dollar cost averaging, or having a large cash/bond allocation that you rebalance with, would have been ways to handle it so that you get closer to an 'average' price over the period, whatever that 'average' price turns out to be. That said, the long term trend of the stock mark...
by JoMoney
Fri Feb 09, 2018 4:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Reasons to underweight foreign stocks?
Replies: 42
Views: 2032

Re: Reasons to underweight foreign stocks?

saltycaper wrote:
Fri Feb 09, 2018 4:50 pm
...This is a fuzzy topic.
That's absolutely true.
by JoMoney
Fri Feb 09, 2018 4:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Reasons to underweight foreign stocks?
Replies: 42
Views: 2032

Re: Reasons to underweight foreign stocks?

... Re: 4) The claim that available information is not as well reflected in the prices of international companies compared to US companies is not supported here. I'm open to hearing more. But then I'd like to see comparisons across all countries and not just US versus everyone else lumped together....
by JoMoney
Fri Feb 09, 2018 3:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Reasons to underweight foreign stocks?
Replies: 42
Views: 2032

Re: Reasons to underweight foreign stocks?

I don't mean to beat a dead horse, but what are good and rational reasons to underweight foreign stocks in a portfolio from global market cap weighting (for U.S. investors)? 1. Foreign stock funds are less tax efficient (foreign withholding) (for taxable accounts). 2. Foreign stocks are more expens...
by JoMoney
Fri Feb 09, 2018 3:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 5600
Views: 1266556

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

RRAAYY3 wrote:
Fri Feb 09, 2018 3:06 pm
Like I said, “BS”

Don’t invest what you need short term, Buy, hold, Retire
RRAAYY3 wrote:
Fri Feb 09, 2018 2:16 pm
...a bunch of BS that if you have the stomach for will make you money over time...
:thumbsup
by JoMoney
Fri Feb 09, 2018 2:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 5600
Views: 1266556

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

...Whether this is "just a correction" or whatever it is, a level of comfort has returned finally seeing some volatility... Granted we have seen an actual fall of 10% off the highs, but this volatility, especially in the intra-day and overnight makes me wonder how much of it might be explained by f...
by JoMoney
Fri Feb 09, 2018 2:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Reasons to underweight foreign stocks?
Replies: 42
Views: 2032

Re: Reasons to underweight foreign stocks?

... I don't believe risk can be articulated in certain terms. If your definition of "risk" is simply a proxy for volatility, well then you're doing yourself a disservice. Even so, the fact that international had higher volatility than the US in the past does not mean the same will occur going forwa...
by JoMoney
Fri Feb 09, 2018 1:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Passive Investing / Index Fund Bubble - ?
Replies: 4
Views: 706

Re: Passive Investing / Index Fund Bubble - ?

Depends on what you consider a "Index Fund". If you count leveraged ETFs and bizarre narrow sectors as an "Index Fund", there might be a bubble in some of them. If you're looking at traditional broad-market index funds, then no, you might have a broad stock market bubble but that's not necessarily ...
by JoMoney
Fri Feb 09, 2018 1:46 pm
Forum: Forum Issues and Administration
Topic: Black Theme for Site?
Replies: 38
Views: 3017

Re: Black Theme for Site?

http://uxmovement.com/content/when-to-use-white-text-on-a-dark-background/ ...a better choice for displaying paragraph text is black text on a light background with a tint of gray. With a gray tint background, less light reflects behind the words, making it easier on the eyes. The black text works b...
by JoMoney
Fri Feb 09, 2018 12:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Reasons to underweight foreign stocks?
Replies: 42
Views: 2032

Re: Reasons to underweight foreign stocks?

I don't mean to beat a dead horse, but what are good and rational reasons to underweight foreign stocks in a portfolio from global market cap weighting (for U.S. investors)? None of the reasons I have seen for avoiding international investing hold up to a simple logic test. IMO, the most common rea...
by JoMoney
Fri Feb 09, 2018 12:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should you sell your investments when they start dropping? When should you invest during this market correction?
Replies: 52
Views: 4132

Re: Should you sell your investments when they start dropping? When should you invest during this market correction?

Nope... I'm not selling. I'll invest when I get paid or otherwise have new money to invest. It's the only way I know of to make sure I'm getting around the 'average' price over any particular time period. I'm not interested in trying to guess whether or not the market price will be lower next week, ...
by JoMoney
Fri Feb 09, 2018 11:48 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Reasons to underweight foreign stocks?
Replies: 42
Views: 2032

Re: Reasons to underweight foreign stocks?

Foreign funds are not necessarily less tax efficient. You get credit for foreign taxes, and even many dividends are qualified (it depends on whether the US has a tax treaty with the country where the company issuing the dividends is headquartered). There may be some foreign taxes and duties for whi...
by JoMoney
Fri Feb 09, 2018 11:13 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Reasons to underweight foreign stocks?
Replies: 42
Views: 2032

Re: Reasons to underweight foreign stocks?

"Foreign stocks are riskier " is a bit reductive of a lot of different ideas, depends how granular you want to be with that. Similar with " Foreign stocks are more expensive to trade and hold. ", you could lump tax situations under that, or break it out separately along with other expenses. I think...
by JoMoney
Fri Feb 09, 2018 10:58 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Live / work in California - Technology Career
Replies: 99
Views: 5922

Re: Live / work in California - Technology Career

LiveSimple wrote:
Fri Feb 09, 2018 9:27 am
...
Looking for most desirable and have the best weather.
You left out the central coast - Montery, San Luis Obispo, Santa Barbara, and Ventura counties. Best weather, very desirable if you're not specifically looking for the big city urban environments.
by JoMoney
Fri Feb 09, 2018 8:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Weak Dollar, after likely four future interest rate hike?
Replies: 8
Views: 1061

Re: Why Weak Dollar, after likely four future interest rate hike?

It's a multi-variable world.... but one idea, is that markets are usually forward looking to expectations, and for reasons such as trade, and comments openly made by the US Treasury secretary, it may be indicative of a policy leading market sentiment towards a weaker dollar.
by JoMoney
Fri Feb 09, 2018 7:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P 1550
Replies: 11
Views: 1489

Re: S&P 1550

The S&P 500 paid out $49 in dividends in 2017. At a price of $1550 that would be a yield of roughly 3.2% Over the past decade, despite "The Great Recession", the book value of the S&P went from $524 (Sep 2007) to $818 (Sep 2017), growing about 4.6% annualized/CAGR If the S&P is going to drop to $155...
by JoMoney
Fri Feb 09, 2018 2:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Passive Investing / Index Fund Bubble - ?
Replies: 4
Views: 706

Re: Passive Investing / Index Fund Bubble - ?

Depends on what you consider a "Index Fund". If you count leveraged ETFs and bizarre narrow sectors as an "Index Fund", there might be a bubble in some of them. If you're looking at traditional broad-market index funds, then no, you might have a broad stock market bubble but that's not necessarily a...
by JoMoney
Fri Feb 09, 2018 2:21 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Residential Address for Vanguard [personal mail forwarding service]
Replies: 19
Views: 1376

Re: Residential Address for Vanguard [personal mail forwarding service]

If someone finds a brokerage that is friendly to allowing people to use alternative descriptions for there "residence" while using a commercial private mailbox for mail, it would be helpful to point it out. It's a common problem on all the RV/traveler sites and related forums. It seems like there is...
by JoMoney
Thu Feb 08, 2018 12:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogleheads in an era of robots vs. robots
Replies: 18
Views: 1290

Re: Bogleheads in an era of robots vs. robots

... Are we deluding ourselves by thinking we are investing in businesses rather than betting at a casino? If you're getting into stocks expecting to sell them the same day, or even the same year... then yeah, you're probably just betting in a casino. I think you need a longer term perspective. If y...
by JoMoney
Thu Feb 08, 2018 9:41 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Does anyone use Goldmoney?
Replies: 19
Views: 881

Re: Does anyone use Goldmoney?

Haven't used, does not seem appealing to me at all, however I wonder what the tax implications are with this, and if there isn't an easier way to have the same net affect but without all the transaction fees the Goldmoney cards seem to have. Like, you could buy a deep 'in the money' call option on G...
by JoMoney
Thu Feb 08, 2018 5:43 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Residential Address for Vanguard [personal mail forwarding service]
Replies: 19
Views: 1376

Re: Residential Address for Vanguard [personal mail forwarding service]

It's not just Vanguard. It's a "Patriot Act" requirement for all financial institutions to have a residential address on file for their account holders, and specifically disallow mail forwarding services & PO Boxes as a residential address (many financial institutions use databases to check for know...
by JoMoney
Tue Feb 06, 2018 9:14 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Sent a letter without country
Replies: 6
Views: 708

Re: Sent a letter without country

I have had letters delivered to me that was missing the street address. USPS is pretty good at figuring these things out. I would wager the letter makes it's way to the Aus Post ok, provided it's just a letter and doesn't require any further paperwork / customs forms that you might have forgot.
by JoMoney
Tue Feb 06, 2018 6:32 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Buy Low, Don't Sell
Replies: 38
Views: 5407

Re: Buy Low, Don't Sell

Always buying... it's always "low" relative to where I expect it will be 10 years from now.
by JoMoney
Tue Feb 06, 2018 2:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Where Are The 100% Equity Bulls? BND up .44%
Replies: 47
Views: 4681

Re: Where Are The 100% Equity Bulls? BND up .44%

RRAAYY3 wrote:
Mon Feb 05, 2018 11:52 pm
You know who brags about .44% gains ?

People who own bonds. Good night.
:D :D :D :sharebeer

The 100% Equity Bulls are continuing to make their regular contributions/investments, or maybe taking their regular withdrawals, and moving on (hopefully) having well expected days like this.
by JoMoney
Tue Feb 06, 2018 2:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market Timing
Replies: 71
Views: 3638

Re: Market Timing

Current Total on 04-11-2013 equals $68,929.81
Uhh.... 4-11-2013 is not "current", why did you stop there?
Why note compare it to a constant mix stock-bond portfolio with an equivalent standard deviation or market exposure?
by JoMoney
Mon Feb 05, 2018 2:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Calling it right now.
Replies: 18
Views: 3584

Re: Calling it right now.

I feel like the old Yahoo boards where people pumped or dumped on individual stocks has migrated to Bogleheads.
by JoMoney
Mon Feb 05, 2018 11:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Being a Disciplined Investor - How do you avoid temptations?
Replies: 41
Views: 2719

Re: Being a Disciplined Investor - How do you avoid temptations?

Before I switched to index investing, and investing by policy, not by 'discipline', I made lots of individual stock bets. I know I did better than the broad market (but not by much), what I don't know/have a good idea about, is how much risk I was assuming when I took a gut-wrenching ride down on a ...
by JoMoney
Mon Feb 05, 2018 11:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: annuity vs. decumulation: apples to apples comparisons?
Replies: 26
Views: 1969

Re: annuity vs. decumulation: apples to apples comparisons?

Something to keep in mind when comparing an "annuity vs decumulation", is an annuity is an insurance product, not an investment. There is value in the sleep-at-night factor offered by having your income literally insured for however long you (and potentially a beneficiary) may live, and less suscept...
by JoMoney
Mon Feb 05, 2018 7:55 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why did BND drop with no interest rate increase and what's in store short term?
Replies: 19
Views: 2060

Re: Why did BND drop with no interest rate increase and what's in store short term?

BND is effectively an intermediate term bond fund. The only rates the Fed directly manages is the Federal Funds Rate and the Discount Rate, which are much much shorter term rates. If your intermediate term bond/fund went down in price the effective interest rate went up, regardless if there was any ...
by JoMoney
Mon Feb 05, 2018 7:49 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Shorting AGG
Replies: 5
Views: 448

Re: Shorting AGG

I wouldn't do it. I think you have a "story", but that's not really "logic". I prefer to keep my speculating in a casino, and not confuse it with my investments.
If I was going to short something like this, (and I can't imagine a situation where I would), I would probably buy a put option on an ETF.
by JoMoney
Mon Feb 05, 2018 1:53 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: 3rd Shifters, Seeking Advice.
Replies: 11
Views: 1002

Re: 3rd Shifters, Seeking Advice.

For myself, I do find it more difficult to sleep during the day. I have 'black out' window blinds which help, and I usually keep a fan going - I like the air movement and the repetitive noise helps drown out other noises. I have to make sure I don't eat anything or drink any coffee after after 2am. ...
by JoMoney
Sun Feb 04, 2018 11:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Economist - “Factor investing” gains popularity
Replies: 22
Views: 2506

Re: Economist - “Factor investing” gains popularity

Absolutely agree. Total stock market index is good but it is not perfect and the herd mentality (no offense) on this site promotes it. Fortunately factor discussion is allowed but many people are against it for no good reason. The Three Fund Portfolio is an excellent starting point but it is not th...
by JoMoney
Sun Feb 04, 2018 10:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Bitcoin is my potential pension"
Replies: 54
Views: 7878

Re: "Bitcoin is my potential pension"

The belly aching on Reddit about having to pay capital gains taxes on bitcoin has been amusing. I was very tempted to suggest muni bonds if they didn't want to pay taxes. Pay capital gains? They should be lucky if it's eligible to be considered capital gains. I would think it should be more like a ...