Search found 5777 matches

by JoMoney
Wed Oct 17, 2018 12:57 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: More safe: Treasury ETF or Bank Account
Replies: 3
Views: 306

Re: More safe: Treasury ETF or Bank Account

On one hand, I think there is a rough argument that a treasury has the explicit guarantee of the U.S. Government, whereas the FDIC backing a bank account is a legal interpretation of statements made by congress that they will stand behind FDIC (but don't want to account for any liability in the budg...
by JoMoney
Wed Oct 17, 2018 12:43 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: street shares
Replies: 4
Views: 393

Re: street shares

5% sounds good if this is guaranteed . It sounds a bit low if these are essentially high credit risk business loans. hmm... ...StreetShares cannot guarantee and does not promise any specific results from use of the Site and/or the Service, including any particular rates of return for Investor Member...
by JoMoney
Wed Oct 17, 2018 12:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividend withholding makes actual ER of Total International 0.32%?
Replies: 5
Views: 390

Re: Dividend withholding makes actual ER of Total International 0.32%?

We could also mention the fees charged by foreign custodian banks to hold the stocks for your benefit (since you can't actually own them) , vote on the shares, make the dividend transfers and paperwork, etc... but that is likely a minimal cost in aggregate probably less than a basis point. Also the ...
by JoMoney
Wed Oct 17, 2018 12:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividend withholding makes actual ER of Total International 0.32%?
Replies: 5
Views: 390

Re: Dividend withholding makes actual ER of Total International 0.32%?

I've frequently made that argument. One of the retorts, is if you hold international in a taxable account, you can claim a credit for much of the foreign withholding on your income taxes. Here's a chart comparing MSCI ACWI Ex USA 'Net Return' vs 'Gross Return' indexes. The GR is before the estimated...
by JoMoney
Tue Oct 16, 2018 12:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Monthly vs. Annual Withdrawals
Replies: 15
Views: 995

Re: Monthly vs. Annual Withdrawals

One Ping wrote:
Tue Oct 16, 2018 12:17 pm
chuckb84 wrote:
Tue Oct 16, 2018 10:40 am
60% US Stock Market
20% Global Stocks Ex-US
40% Total US bond Market
Anyone else notice this is 120% of the portfolio?

OP, is this what you meant?
40% US Stock Market
20% Global Stocks Ex-US
40% Total US bond Market
OP's portfolio had better returns :D :greedy
by JoMoney
Tue Oct 16, 2018 11:53 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Money Markets and CDs now
Replies: 3
Views: 687

Re: Money Markets and CDs now

I like having my fixed income investments matched to the time period I expect to need the money. So if the money might be needed in the next year or two, I wouldn't have it in bonds or funds at longer durations. Interest rates have already started to rise and those longer funds have already took a h...
by JoMoney
Tue Oct 16, 2018 11:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Monthly vs. Annual Withdrawals
Replies: 15
Views: 995

Re: Monthly vs. Annual Withdrawals

I remember finding something similar when trying to figure out if there was a day of the week that performed better for making my 401k contributions. It felt like the market always went down after my payroll contributions went in on Friday, so I did my own 'what if' study to see if there was another...
by JoMoney
Tue Oct 16, 2018 12:01 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Attempted fraud against my frozen credit - Need I do more?
Replies: 9
Views: 1486

Re: Attempted fraud against my frozen credit - Need I do more?

If you report it, you can do a "extended" fraud alert that will last seven years. https://www.consumer.ftc.gov/articles/0279-extended-fraud-alerts-and-credit-freezes You can report online and get further guidance at https://www.identitytheft.gov/ I'm not certain if the attempt is enough, or if they ...
by JoMoney
Mon Oct 15, 2018 2:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What Jack Bogle Expects From the Market
Replies: 11
Views: 2106

JoMoney is TOO optimistic :)

... So people who disagree with his projections are free to do the math: Dividend yield + Earnings growth + Speculative return. And if you think he's too low you should really step up and tell us where you think the growth is coming from in this formula... Despite the tumult, growth on tangible equ...
by JoMoney
Mon Oct 15, 2018 12:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: After-Tax Hierarchy?
Replies: 1
Views: 263

Re: After-Tax Hierarchy?

I think your 'hierarchy' makes sense, although many would put the bonds in a tax-sheltered account. The high yields can be tax drag, and you get no benefit of the low tax rates on capital gains and dividends... but... I like using Series I Savings Bonds. They work great for emergency funds (after th...
by JoMoney
Mon Oct 15, 2018 3:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: 2018 Good For Gurus
Replies: 7
Views: 1065

Re: Larry Swedroe: 2018 Good For Gurus

Tax bill should have been seen as stimulative, didn't take much genius there (if looked at objectively). Not surprised many got interest rate call correct, many have been predicting that for past several years, finally happened. I'm surprised there weren't more deductions for calling on more growth ...
by JoMoney
Sun Oct 14, 2018 10:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Safe" Withdrawal Rate for Early Retirees (or any retiree)
Replies: 187
Views: 13891

Re: "Safe" Withdrawal Rate for Early Retirees (or any retiree)

I think it would also be informative to look at a 60/40 portfolio, but with ex-US for the 60% instead of US. Basically, answering the question of what the SWRs would have been like if the US had performed the same as ex-US. PortfolioVisualizer Monte Carlo Simulations 4% inflation adjusted withdrawa...
by JoMoney
Sun Oct 14, 2018 5:29 pm
Forum: Forum Issues and Administration
Topic: would someone explain to me
Replies: 8
Views: 755

Re: would someone explain to me

People can discuss anything under the sun in the consumer board as far as I can tell. I really doubt that helping the planet is controversial. I would love to see whoever deleted this explain their reasoning. Not anything, there are rules https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/rules#section-3 Medical stu...
by JoMoney
Sun Oct 14, 2018 5:21 pm
Forum: Forum Issues and Administration
Topic: would someone explain to me
Replies: 8
Views: 755

Re: would someone explain to me

Happens all the time with topics that are prone to be controversial. The board is primarily about personal investing, and is heavily moderated.
by JoMoney
Sun Oct 14, 2018 5:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Have you annuitized some of your money?
Replies: 67
Views: 5555

Re: Have you annuitized some of your money?

Thoughts on DIA, instead of SPIA? Buying now and waiting 5-6 years to begin payments results in a higher monthly payment. Think most would jump on a 5% 5-year CD, why not a DIA in 5 years at +7%? I'd be interested in seeing the specifics of whatever you're looking at, my assumption is that it's not...
by JoMoney
Sun Oct 14, 2018 4:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 yr TIPs auction: Oct. 18: 1.2% real yield?
Replies: 24
Views: 1986

Re: 30 yr TIPs auction: Oct. 18: 1.2% real yield?

Nope, bond yields still not that attractive to me. If i'm reading this right: Daily Treasury Real Yield Curve Rates even 5 year TIPS appear to be yielding over 1% , so unless I was planning on building a very long-term ladder, and had especially dismal outlook on the future, locking in for 30 years ...
by JoMoney
Sun Oct 14, 2018 4:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bob Brinker retiring.
Replies: 3
Views: 866

Re: Bob Brinker retiring.

It might be regional, but Ric Edelman is another popular money radio show that's still on air.
I like Bob and Dave's advice (at least on getting out of debt), not so much with Ric... who actively encourages people to go into debt with a mortgage to invest (with his firms paid advisers of course).
by JoMoney
Sun Oct 14, 2018 4:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Collective Investment Trust choice in 401k
Replies: 17
Views: 655

Re: Collective Investment Trust choice in 401k

FWIW, if I log in to my 401k plan (administered through Fidelity), I can get a up to date quote on the value of a CIT share, see how many shares I own, and what the purchase/sale price was on any transactions . Is their automatic reinvestment of dividends a "transaction?" It's difficult to get quot...
by JoMoney
Sun Oct 14, 2018 3:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Collective Investment Trust choice in 401k
Replies: 17
Views: 655

Re: Collective Investment Trust choice in 401k

FWIW, if I log in to my 401k plan (administered through Fidelity), I can get a up to date quote on the value of a CIT share, see how many shares I own, and what the purchase/sale price was on any transactions. It's difficult to get quotes external from the plan because there is no ticker, and since ...
by JoMoney
Sun Oct 14, 2018 2:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Has the US bull become addicted to corporate buybacks?
Replies: 16
Views: 1501

Re: Has the US bull become addicted to corporate buybacks?

I would rather see things tied to growing the business intrinsically, more R&D, more stores/factories, more employees. Although, massive investments in new technology booms have been problematic as well. If the companies are sitting on cash without clearly better internal investment options, paying ...
by JoMoney
Sun Oct 14, 2018 12:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Safe" Withdrawal Rate for Early Retirees (or any retiree)
Replies: 187
Views: 13891

Re: "Safe" Withdrawal Rate for Early Retirees (or any retiree)

... There is no 0% risk , I think you have to balance the various risks and goals, and find your own comfort level. It may no make sense for folks that would like to retire and do other things, to cling to a job they might not enjoy for years of their life trying to get that additional fractional p...
by JoMoney
Sun Oct 14, 2018 12:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is EMH a tautology?
Replies: 108
Views: 4441

Re: Is EMH a tautology?

...the proof of EHM (success of TSM over alternatives) does not require EMH to explain it. So the value of EMH is undefined... I think that's the other way around. EMH doesn't really have a proof, and the "proof" or success of broad market investing doesn't rely on EMH. It's simple arithmetic to pr...
by JoMoney
Sat Oct 13, 2018 11:53 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Reducing overall medical costs. Do we do anything?
Replies: 67
Views: 3037

Re: Reducing overall medical costs. Do we do anything?

Use your PCP as a first step instead of immediately jumping to a specialist. I know two young people on Medicaid. They are both in their 20s. Both told me how they had just made appointments with various specialists. Girl number one told me she was going to see a podiatrist (along with two other sp...
by JoMoney
Sat Oct 13, 2018 10:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Safe" Withdrawal Rate for Early Retirees (or any retiree)
Replies: 187
Views: 13891

Re: "Safe" Withdrawal Rate for Early Retirees (or any retiree)

... I mean, if you can't put faith on any historical data, then it seems odd to say 3% for ER is "groupthink", but 2% you are comfortable with. Discarding historical data, then you are left to imagining dire scenarios, which I understand. But, is your imagination so limited that you can only conjur...
by JoMoney
Sat Oct 13, 2018 9:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is EMH a tautology?
Replies: 108
Views: 4441

Re: Is EMH a tautology?

... Were they priced efficiently? I can't think of any reason why they weren't... I can, namely that the market has/had poor liquidity to cash and was controlled primarily by a few exchanges that have several allegations of fraud against them https://mashable.com/article/sec-coinbase-complaints-fra...
by JoMoney
Sat Oct 13, 2018 9:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: WMCR - Invesco Wilshire Micro-Cap ETF
Replies: 13
Views: 847

Re: WMCR - Invesco Wilshire Micro-Cap ETF

... Even though the small-cap indexes underperformed the micro-cap index , the small-cap fund outperformed the micro-cap funds ... Yowzah! :shock: https://i.postimg.cc/gcxmkzBw/micro.png Even if the fund was able to successfully track the index, I can only imagine it being an act of faith in the "R...
by JoMoney
Sat Oct 13, 2018 7:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Collective Investment Trust choice in 401k
Replies: 17
Views: 655

Re: Collective Investment Trust choice in 401k

https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Collective_Investment_Trusts https://www.bogleheads.org/blog/what-is-a-collective-investment-trust/ They are more difficult to get information on, they don't follow the disclosure requirements the SEC would require for a mutual fund. They are regulated, but by the Off...
by JoMoney
Sat Oct 13, 2018 6:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is EMH a tautology?
Replies: 108
Views: 4441

Re: Is EMH a tautology?

The irony of the Nobel for Prof. Fama and EMH, is Prof. Shiller receiving a Nobel for CAPE at the same time. The Nobel committee often balances its prizes in just that way. Btw Shiller did not receive his Nobel for CAPE10 And I will ask what is the contradiction between EMH and CAPE? CAPE makes no ...
by JoMoney
Sat Oct 13, 2018 6:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mutual Fund vs. Brokerage exposure to risk
Replies: 8
Views: 430

Re: Mutual Fund vs. Brokerage exposure to risk

... I had read a few posts from people stating details and reasons why a brokerage was more risky but never found anyone refuting the claims. Holding in a brokerage is a bit derivative from holding directly, and in a way creates a counterparty risk that wouldn't otherwise exist if one held directly...
by JoMoney
Sat Oct 13, 2018 6:27 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Reducing overall medical costs. Do we do anything?
Replies: 67
Views: 3037

Re: Reducing overall medical costs. Do we do anything?

I don't think avoiding preventative care is the answer. It is a multifaceted issue, but I think there is a point to be made about the fraud that is out there. If people reported it when they suspected something, and with good governance to actively fight it, it could go quite a ways to take a bite o...
by JoMoney
Sat Oct 13, 2018 6:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Safe" Withdrawal Rate for Early Retirees (or any retiree)
Replies: 187
Views: 13891

Re: "Safe" Withdrawal Rate for Early Retirees (or any retiree)

My current thoughts on SWR is essentially annuitization, not necessarily to buy a SPIA, but to use something like the IRS SEPP 72(t) withdrawal methodology and create an amortization schedule on current interest rates, or divide balance by remaining life expectancy (although I don't see anything wro...
by JoMoney
Sat Oct 13, 2018 5:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is EMH a tautology?
Replies: 108
Views: 4441

Re: Is EMH a tautology?

There is a pretty fair handed description/presentation from Aswath Damodaran over here: http://people.stern.nyu.edu/adamodar/pdfiles/invphiloh/mktefficiency.pdf  There is an internal contradiction in claiming that there is no possibility of beating the market in an efficient market and then requiri...
by JoMoney
Sat Oct 13, 2018 4:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is EMH a tautology?
Replies: 108
Views: 4441

Re: Is EMH a tautology?

The irony of the Nobel for Prof. Fama and EMH, is Prof. Shiller receiving a Nobel for CAPE at the same time.
by JoMoney
Sat Oct 13, 2018 1:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 7364
Views: 1546370

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

90% would make me regret being 100% equities but presumably I will be more worried about other things like a global flu pandemic wiping out the planet Haha, 90%...could our nation's financial system even recover from a drop that steep? What's the closest we've come...Great Depression? Great Recessi...
by JoMoney
Sat Oct 13, 2018 12:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mutual Fund vs. Brokerage exposure to risk
Replies: 8
Views: 430

Re: Mutual Fund vs. Brokerage exposure to risk

There was a thread recently with what I believe is similar to what you're implying. They referenced a post in a blog comment section, where the reply suggested they spoke to a Vanguard rep and were told https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=258813&#p4119913 https://jlcollinsnh.com/20...
by JoMoney
Sat Oct 13, 2018 10:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is EMH a tautology?
Replies: 108
Views: 4441

Re: Is EMH a tautology?

...But my claim is that precisely because it cannot be tested and thus is not falisfiable, it has absolutely no scientific value. It is just a tautology and I am more and more puzzled why people (besides academics) take it seriously... Sounds about right to me, even worse than not being correct, it...
by JoMoney
Sat Oct 13, 2018 10:31 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: “$1000/month job is worth $300k in retirement funds” // What are some retirement jobs you would actually enjoy doing?
Replies: 103
Views: 9516

Re: “$1000/month job is worth $300k in retirement funds” // What are some retirement jobs you would actually enjoy doing

RickBoglehead wrote:
Sat Oct 13, 2018 10:18 am
Where does this quote come from? I can't imagine how $12,000 pre-tax comes close to $300k ever.
Probably because $12,000 x 25 = $300,000 ; 4% SWR(rule of thumb) on $300,000 = $12,000
by JoMoney
Fri Oct 12, 2018 11:33 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: “$1000/month job is worth $300k in retirement funds” // What are some retirement jobs you would actually enjoy doing?
Replies: 103
Views: 9516

Re: “$1000/month job is worth $300k in retirement funds” // What are some retirement jobs you would actually enjoy doing

“$1000/month job is worth $300k in retirement funds” Bringing in a $1000 a month would make a huge difference for some people but I would have to question the $300K figure. The problem is that you might be able to work the job for a while when you first retire but many if not most people will find ...
by JoMoney
Fri Oct 12, 2018 10:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Public companies as proxies for capitalism as a system
Replies: 9
Views: 773

Re: Public companies as proxies for capitalism as a system

There are definitely a lot of private companies, and a trend in fewer companies going public (for various reasons). I would suggest that it could indicate that "private equity" is over valued, and when demand for public equity reaches price levels relatively more attractive for those wishing to sell...
by JoMoney
Fri Oct 12, 2018 10:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Safe" Withdrawal Rate for Early Retirees (or any retiree)
Replies: 187
Views: 13891

Re: "Safe" Withdrawal Rate for Early Retirees (or any retiree)

...I know a lot of dumb 45 year-olds who haven't planned for the future. I know some 45 year olds that are otherwise brilliant, but just don't have a personality geared for saving/sacrificing now for the future. I'm not sure that it's due to personality as much as other factors, like simple ignoran...
by JoMoney
Fri Oct 12, 2018 8:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Diversifying with a zero-correlation, zero-return volatile asset
Replies: 66
Views: 3513

Re: Diversifying with a zero-correlation, zero-return volatile asset

Not only is the un-correlated zero-return asset adding extra risk, it has opportunity costs for the money that could have been invested in something with an expected return.
by JoMoney
Fri Oct 12, 2018 8:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Unfortunate Near Real-Time Test of Sequence of Returns Risk v Probability of Retirement Success
Replies: 19
Views: 1729

Re: Unfortunate Near Real-Time Test of Sequence of Returns Risk v Probability of Retirement Success

FoolMeOnce wrote:
Fri Oct 12, 2018 8:32 pm
...
A: Latte? You know that's mostly milk, right? I'd never order anything but drip. Maybe pour-over.
I know, right?! ;)
Why is a cup of coffee $2 and milk free if you pour it yourself, but a cup of milk from the barista with a little bit of coffee in it $4 ?
by JoMoney
Fri Oct 12, 2018 8:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: High risk. vs. high volatility
Replies: 2
Views: 311

Re: High risk. vs. high volatility

No. I don't expect that taking above average "risk" is necessarily rewarded beyond the possibility of a coin flip. I would encourage them to invest in themselves, their career, and to seek opportunities where they can expect to be able to offer something to the market where they do have an advantage...
by JoMoney
Fri Oct 12, 2018 7:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 7364
Views: 1546370

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Not one bit of this market fluctuation has affected me. Not at all. I watched it happen, but didn’t care. I didn’t even feel the urge to buy stocks on sale. Is something wrong with me? Not if you're a long-term investor. There was nothing especially unusual (so far) with the fluctuation, it's not e...
by JoMoney
Fri Oct 12, 2018 7:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Short Term Bond yield over 3%
Replies: 71
Views: 9408

Re: Short Term Bond yield over 3%

Are short term bonds really paying 3% ? I assume that is for individual bonds, not a bond fund edit: Come back in a year and let us know how much your short term bond earned. thanks They are paying roughly 3% "coupons" / dividends on new investments. People who already own them are getting the rate...
by JoMoney
Fri Oct 12, 2018 5:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Short Term Bond yield over 3%
Replies: 71
Views: 9408

Re: Short Term Bond yield over 3%

Are short term bonds really paying 3% ? I assume that is for individual bonds, not a bond fund edit: Come back in a year and let us know how much your short term bond earned. thanks They are paying roughly 3% "coupons" / dividends on new investments. People who already own them are getting the rate...
by JoMoney
Fri Oct 12, 2018 5:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Unfortunate Near Real-Time Test of Sequence of Returns Risk v Probability of Retirement Success
Replies: 19
Views: 1729

Re: Unfortunate Near Real-Time Test of Sequence of Returns Risk v Probability of Retirement Success

WyomingFIRE wrote:
Fri Oct 12, 2018 7:46 am
...makes me wonder if the retirement calculator is too sensitive.
Yes, they're all "sensitive", minor changes compound exponentially over long periods of time.
by JoMoney
Fri Oct 12, 2018 5:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Short Term Bond yield over 3%
Replies: 71
Views: 9408

Re: Short Term Bond yield over 3%

Are short term bonds really paying 3% ? I assume that is for individual bonds, not a bond fund edit: Come back in a year and let us know how much your short term bond earned. thanks They are paying roughly 3% "coupons" / dividends on new investments. People who already own them are getting the rate...
by JoMoney
Fri Oct 12, 2018 4:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Buying opportunity? Invest my emergency fund??
Replies: 9
Views: 1461

Re: Buying opportunity? Invest my emergency fund??

If you're willing to put the money in the stock market, it's not an "emergency fund". I don't believe you should be thinking about putting any money you might need in the next couple years in stocks . I'm not a fan of making frequent changes to ones portfolio/asset allocation. I believe it's more li...
by JoMoney
Fri Oct 12, 2018 4:07 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Website article on lawsuits over hospital balance / surprise billing
Replies: 56
Views: 2275

Re: Website article on lawsuits over hospital balance / surprise billing

PS: Insurance should have to pay the charges for out of network if they haven't secured a!l the services their policyholders need. Instead, they leave customers uncovered. THIS! If the insurance refuses to negotiate acceptable fees then they shouldn't get to just walk away from it. As it stands now...