Search found 5197 matches

by JoMoney
Sun Jul 15, 2018 11:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is leveraging property good but leveraging stocks bad?
Replies: 87
Views: 5346

Re: Why is leveraging property good but leveraging stocks bad?

All leverages are bad. Our friends at the Wharton School would disagree with this statement. In finance, it is taught that debt can lower a firm's cost of capital , allowing it to be more profitable. This is the reason why companies such as AAPL issue bonds to buy back shares of stocks. They are bo...
by JoMoney
Sun Jul 15, 2018 9:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Has the range of expected stock market returns ever been larger than today?
Replies: 15
Views: 1242

Re: Has the range of expected stock market returns ever been larger than today?

Since 1926, historical 20 year periods of real inflation adjusted returns have ranged between 0% (1962 through 1981) and 13% (1980 through 1999) ...incidentally, the returns from 1962-1999 were 7% , and from 1980-2008 were 7% Here are the real inflation adjusted returns over other 20 year periods, t...
by JoMoney
Sun Jul 15, 2018 5:59 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Should I simplify my portfolio and switch from 3 fund to 2 fund portfolio?
Replies: 29
Views: 1251

Re: Should I simplify my portfolio and switch from 3 fund to 2 fund portfolio?

What you're suggesting, is pretty much what I do. Mr. Bogle would likely suggest more bonds than what Warren Buffett suggests, but otherwise recommends that. In my experience, right after I sell something is when it seems to go on a heater outperforming everything else and making me wish I hadn't so...
by JoMoney
Sat Jul 14, 2018 11:49 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: many differences in small cap indexes
Replies: 26
Views: 1458

Re: many differences in small cap indexes

Regarding the S&P 600 index, I don't think anyone has mentioned this, but the index was able to avoid a lot of the dot-com carnage around 1999 because it has a requirement that companies in the index have at least three consecutive years of earnings or at least three years of earnings. I believe th...
by JoMoney
Sat Jul 14, 2018 11:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is leveraging property good but leveraging stocks bad?
Replies: 87
Views: 5346

Re: Why is leveraging property good but leveraging stocks bad?

If you set the "leverage" as a percentage, then it requires rebalancing and suffers what some describe as "volatility drag". By keeping it at a fixed percentage, you might be able to avoid a margin call, but can still run the risk of a bad sequence that diminishes a portfolio to a point where it's t...
by JoMoney
Fri Jul 13, 2018 1:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Treasury Bond Yielding 9%
Replies: 9
Views: 1168

Re: Treasury Bond Yielding 9%

Over the decade from 1974 to 1985 inflation was 8% annualized.
by JoMoney
Fri Jul 13, 2018 1:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Saving 20% of paycheck isn't enough
Replies: 80
Views: 8988

Re: Saving 20% of paycheck isn't enough

Maybe... If you saved 20% of your paycheck for 30 years and it compounded at 6% annually you'd have about 20x the 80% of your paycheck you were otherwise living on (after saving 20%).

Save more, live on less, hope for higher returns, and social security...
by JoMoney
Fri Jul 13, 2018 4:09 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Thesaurus Help Please
Replies: 12
Views: 670

Re: Thesaurus Help Please

affiliate

11->
confederate
participant
by JoMoney
Fri Jul 13, 2018 3:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Risk Adjusted SPIVA Scorecard
Replies: 1
Views: 226

Risk Adjusted SPIVA Scorecard

Blog Post: http://www.indexologyblog.com/2018/07/09/risk-adjusted-spiva-scorecard-the-evaluation-of-active-managers-performance-through-a-risk-lens/ An interesting SPIVA Scorecard report, linking to it here in case anyone else interested missed it. In particular I found it interesting that on a gros...
by JoMoney
Fri Jul 13, 2018 12:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Real Estate Investment: Yay or Nay?
Replies: 27
Views: 1928

Re: Real Estate Investment: Yay or Nay?

Seems a bit high, but if it's a high growth area the expectation for some might be in the price appreciation more than the rent. San Francisco saw something like a 12% increase in the first six months of 2018. At that rate, who cares about rent? ... Or even a job... just get into a house and a HELOC...
by JoMoney
Thu Jul 12, 2018 4:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: COMING SOON: BOGLEHEADS PODCASTS
Replies: 341
Views: 9899

Re: COMING SOON: BOGLEHEADS PODCASTS

BALLAST Podcast
Bogleheads: ALL About Saving and The-market
by JoMoney
Thu Jul 12, 2018 4:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What recent (last ~8 months) events have changed the total US stock market?
Replies: 14
Views: 1279

Re: What recent (last ~8 months) events have changed the total US stock market?

The tax changes didn't take effect until the 2018 fiscal year, which is likely why the record buybacks just this past quarter. I suppose you could also look at the trade situation as adding an air of additional 'uncertainty' to business both in the US and internationally, but it's pretty difficult t...
by JoMoney
Thu Jul 12, 2018 3:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What recent (last ~8 months) events have changed the total US stock market?
Replies: 14
Views: 1279

Re: What recent (last ~8 months) events have changed the total US stock market?

The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 , which potentially increases after-tax margins on US sales, and somewhat incentivizes the repatriation of funds held internationally and may be fueling record levels of stock buybacks https://money.cnn.com/2018/07/10/investing/stock-buybacks-record-tax-cuts/index.h...
by JoMoney
Thu Jul 12, 2018 12:40 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Classical Guitar Experts, What's the Name of this Song?
Replies: 4
Views: 685

Re: Classical Guitar Experts, What's the Name of this Song?

Not an expert, but they announce the song before 51:50 as being Opus 130 by Mauro Giuliani
and resembles it being played here: https://youtu.be/3yPE5YfxAUo
by JoMoney
Wed Jul 11, 2018 11:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The value of international stocks, in pictures
Replies: 62
Views: 7135

Re: The value of international stocks, in pictures

So what do all of you recommend for AA for US/international? 80/20? In my brokerage, I’m only 11.7% international. I auto invest a good chunk of money each month, which I have set to 75% VTSAX 25% VTIAX. I’m thinking of maybe doing 50/50 for a while as international is supposed to be a better value...
by JoMoney
Wed Jul 11, 2018 7:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The value of international stocks, in pictures
Replies: 62
Views: 7135

Re: The value of international stocks, in pictures

International stocks... Higher volatility More explicit risks, in terms of sovereignty issues, currency risk etc.. Higher costs and tax implications For better or worse, it isn't going to track with U.S. benchmark If you recognize all that, and feel compelled that you need some allocation to it for ...
by JoMoney
Wed Jul 11, 2018 5:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Six stocks make up 98% of S&P 500 gains in 2018
Replies: 74
Views: 8923

Re: Six stocks make up 98% of S&P 500 gains in 2018

It is a misleading way to state what's going on, but it's not entirely out of line either. The cap-weighted S&P 500 has been outperforming the S&P 500 equal-weighted Morningstar Growth Chart Which on it's own, implies the larger stocks held in larger weights are doing more of the heavy lifting (but ...
by JoMoney
Tue Jul 10, 2018 4:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Six stocks make up 98% of S&P 500 gains in 2018
Replies: 74
Views: 8923

Re: Six stocks make up 98% of S&P 500 gains in 2018

Those are the heavy weighted stocks in the top ten... other stocks doing ok too... https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/070116/top-performers-sp-500-year.asp Company Name Ticker Percent Gain Netflix NFLX 103.91% Twitter TWTR 81.88% TripAdvisor Inc. TRIP 61.67% XL Group Ltd XL 59.13% Under...
by JoMoney
Tue Jul 10, 2018 1:22 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Capital One now at 1.75 [Money Market Rate To 1.75% APY]
Replies: 51
Views: 5098

Now at 1.75%

Capital One 360 posted a new Money Market rate, 1.75%
https://www.capitalone.com/bank/savings ... t-account/
by JoMoney
Mon Jul 09, 2018 1:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: After-tax contributions to 401(k)?
Replies: 25
Views: 1693

Re: After-tax contributions to 401(k)?

To be clear, I'm not looking for guidance or worried about when or if I decide to convert or rollover my after-tax contributions. I'm happy continuing to make the contributions and having the option to convert if/when I choose to. I was just offering OP my anecdotal preference for why I prefer the a...
by JoMoney
Mon Jul 09, 2018 10:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stock buy backs?
Replies: 13
Views: 603

Re: Stock buy backs?

BigMoneyNoWhammies wrote:
Mon Jul 09, 2018 10:30 am
you've piqued my interest, what tactics do they now utilize to adjust the options to account for this?
It's not that they "adjust the options", it's that the share-based compensation is accounted for on the balance sheets (along with other payments/expenses).
FASB Topic 718
by JoMoney
Mon Jul 09, 2018 9:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Morningstar: prepare for a lost decade for U.S. stocks
Replies: 198
Views: 17903

Re: Morningstar: prepare for a lost decade for U.S. stocks

I think US equities will be down and can almost guarantee that they will be. My reasoning is that it keeps getting posted that this will happen in financial news. Why does this matter? The general population of investors will follow this info and invest accordingly. Herd mentality. Sell off of US e...
by JoMoney
Mon Jul 09, 2018 8:47 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: After-tax contributions to 401(k)?
Replies: 25
Views: 1693

Re: After-tax contributions to 401(k)?

Yes, relative to a taxable account you don't have to pay taxes on dividends until you withdraw the money from a retirement account Note, dividends received on the after tax contributions are pre-tax earnings, therefore will be taxed in the future at ordinary income rates. Right, but you get the ben...
by JoMoney
Mon Jul 09, 2018 7:41 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: After-tax contributions to 401(k)?
Replies: 25
Views: 1693

Re: After-tax contributions to 401(k)?

I continue to make after-tax contributions to my 401k plan, I have substantial growth on the basis and I'm in no hurry to convert it to Roth (if I ever do). I'm of the opinion that it's not a certainty that my future tax rate/tax rates in retirement will be as high as they are currently. I like tha...
by JoMoney
Mon Jul 09, 2018 3:38 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: After-tax contributions to 401(k)?
Replies: 25
Views: 1693

Re: After-tax contributions to 401(k)?

I continue to make after-tax contributions to my 401k plan, I have substantial growth on the basis and I'm in no hurry to convert it to Roth (if I ever do). I'm of the opinion that it's not a certainty that my future tax rate/tax rates in retirement will be as high as they are currently. I like that...
by JoMoney
Sun Jul 08, 2018 8:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Great investment books that are less well known?
Replies: 15
Views: 1273

Re: Great investment books that are less well known?

The Art of Money Getting by P.T. Barnum
by JoMoney
Sun Jul 08, 2018 6:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is it contradictory to be a Boglehead and have substantial allocation towards SCV?
Replies: 30
Views: 2191

Re: Is it contradictory to be a Boglehead and have substantial allocation towards SCV?

. Yes, that is an example of the conflict between real-world Small Value mutual funds (as Morningstar uses to create it's benchmark) vs. that of an academic reconstructed portfolios (that some argue is fitted to the result they were looking for) PV describes it's Data Sources in the FAQ https://www...
by JoMoney
Sun Jul 08, 2018 5:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is it contradictory to be a Boglehead and have substantial allocation towards SCV?
Replies: 30
Views: 2191

Re: Is it contradictory to be a Boglehead and have substantial allocation towards SCV?

First, the assertion that SCV has under-performed the S&P500 over long time periods is flat-out wrong. There is a small cap premium and a value premium, and these are persistent and pervasive (over long time periods). Look at the data yourself. Not that I'm against SCV, but there are some examples ...
by JoMoney
Sun Jul 08, 2018 5:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is it contradictory to be a Boglehead and have substantial allocation towards SCV?
Replies: 30
Views: 2191

Re: Is it contradictory to be a Boglehead and have substantial allocation towards SCV?

It is in stark contrast with the investing advice of Jack Bogle.
It is inline with the frequent, although controversial, advice offered by many Bogleheads.
by JoMoney
Sun Jul 08, 2018 4:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Morningstar: prepare for a lost decade for U.S. stocks
Replies: 198
Views: 17903

Re: Morningstar: prepare for a lost decade for U.S. stocks

... Invest in real estate. If your property values go up 10% or go down 10%, you won't care since your 10-15% dividend in the form of rental income flows in like a fine brandy 8-) :D :D :D A 10% cap rate can be hard to find in the majority of markets. There are parts of California where purchasing ...
by JoMoney
Sun Jul 08, 2018 2:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard - What will the real return be for stocks and bonds over the next ten years?
Replies: 46
Views: 5058

Re: Vanguard - What will the real return be for stocks and bonds over the next ten years?

Isn't the 'fairest' value for equities what the market says it is? I'd say two crashes in 20 years has demolished the utility of EMH for people in or near retirement. I was being sarcastic, but that's hard to convey here. :wink: I agree that the EMH is not nearly as accurate as many seem to believe...
by JoMoney
Sun Jul 08, 2018 2:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Girls and investing
Replies: 115
Views: 5541

Re: Girls and investing

It depends on the kid. I don't think gender is a factor, but the kids developmental state and the kids interests are a factor. Some 7 year olds barely read, and can't tie their own shoes. Some 8 year olds read at a high school level. Some adults don't have any interest with investing. See if they ha...
by JoMoney
Fri Jul 06, 2018 5:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Morningstar: prepare for a lost decade for U.S. stocks
Replies: 198
Views: 17903

Re: Morningstar: prepare for a lost decade for U.S. stocks

The actual economic growth, and the changes in the price multiple (which are anticipating future returns relative to alternative options) will fully explain (in hindsight) the returns between any prior periods of time. Looking forward in time, we have to guess what the actual future economic growth ...
by JoMoney
Fri Jul 06, 2018 5:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Morningstar: prepare for a lost decade for U.S. stocks
Replies: 198
Views: 17903

Re: Morningstar: prepare for a lost decade for U.S. stocks

https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Historical_and_expected_returns Bill Bernstein's forecast (in 2014) was for 2% 'real' (inflation adjusted) returns over the next decade ...so far we've had >9% annualized real return over the 4.5 years since In 2002 his 10 year estimate was for 3.5% real, actual 2002-...
by JoMoney
Fri Jul 06, 2018 4:43 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Capital One now at 1.75 [Money Market Rate To 1.75% APY]
Replies: 51
Views: 5098

Re: Capital One now at 1.60 [Money Market Rate To 1.60% APY]

I'm hoping they'll adjust up soon. They've been pretty good about it (but typically trailing a bit slower). I prefer to keep cash in the bank, but it's not that big of a hassle to move back to my Vanguard settlement account (currently yielding >1.8% )
by JoMoney
Thu Jul 05, 2018 11:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Treasury Auction - Nobody Came: "Great T-Bill Massacre"
Replies: 145
Views: 11772

Re: Treasury Auction - Nobody Came: "Great T-Bill Massacre"

Phineas J. Whoopee wrote:
Thu Jul 05, 2018 11:06 pm
I'm sorry nedsaid, but the Fed is only the lender of last resort for US banks.
PJW
Well, there was lending to at least some non-US banks
https://www.smh.com.au/world/fed-lifts- ... 18hn8.html
by JoMoney
Thu Jul 05, 2018 10:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Morningstar: prepare for a lost decade for U.S. stocks
Replies: 198
Views: 17903

Re: Morningstar: prepare for a lost decade for U.S. stocks

vineviz wrote:
Thu Jul 05, 2018 10:29 am
... Everyone else dismissing the role of forecasting is, whether they admit it or not, engaging in self-delusion on the way to confirmation bias.
Do you have evidence that paying attention and making changes to investment portfolios based on forecasting has been a good thing for most investors?
by JoMoney
Thu Jul 05, 2018 10:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Morningstar: prepare for a lost decade for U.S. stocks
Replies: 198
Views: 17903

Re: Morningstar: prepare for a lost decade for U.S. stocks

This post is trollbait. Nobody know what future stock returns will be. Why are posts like this allowed? Because this forum is called "Investing - Theory, News & General"? Morningstar reporting their expectations for future investment returns, based on financial theory, is entirely on-topic. More di...
by JoMoney
Thu Jul 05, 2018 9:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Morningstar: prepare for a lost decade for U.S. stocks
Replies: 198
Views: 17903

Re: Morningstar: prepare for a lost decade for U.S. stocks

I wonder why they don't explain how their model comes to such conclusions.
Do they expect growth to slow down even more than it has over the past decade, why?
Do they expect price multiples to come down, why?
How is it whatever factors they're using will impact US markets, but not others?
by JoMoney
Thu Jul 05, 2018 3:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can you just hold VOO VTI and call it a day?
Replies: 10
Views: 1019

Re: Can you just hold VOO VTI and call it a day?

I have some cash/money market/CD/Savings Bonds, but that's pretty much what I do... low cost S&P 500 index fund(s) in my retirement and taxable accounts. http://www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/2013ltr.pdf My money, I should add, is where my mouth is: What I advise here is essentially identical to ...
by JoMoney
Thu Jul 05, 2018 3:03 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Is there a current car without a console between the front seats?
Replies: 52
Views: 4024

Re: Is there a current car without a console between the front seats?

According to this, https://www.reference.com/vehicles/new-cars-still-offer-front-bench-seats-ec9a1966d65d3dcb It doesn't look like there are any cars that still offer front bench-seats / split-bench. I suppose there may be some with separate seats and no console, but I'm having a hard time picturing...
by JoMoney
Thu Jul 05, 2018 12:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jack Bogle is not a "buy&hold at any price goose", he looks at valuations, he sold his stocks in year 2000
Replies: 48
Views: 6546

Re: Jack Bogle is not a "buy&hold at any price goose", he looks at valuations, he sold his stocks in year 2000

Yes, Mr. Bogle has made some tactical changes in his portfolio. At one point in the recent passed he poo-pooed government bonds and the 'Total Bond' index for not having enough in corporate bonds. He's also cautioned people to be careful about this, even in the video you shared. Anybody attempting t...
by JoMoney
Wed Jul 04, 2018 3:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Evolution # of Large Cap Growth Stocks?
Replies: 3
Views: 299

Re: Evolution # of Large Cap Growth Stocks?

At the end of 2012 Vanguard Growth Index had 416 stocks and a median market cap of $43.5B Vanguard Value Index had 414 stocks and a median market cap of $47.9B end of 2017 Vanguard Growth Index had 319 stocks and a median market cap of $84.7B Vanguard Value Index had 336 stocks and a median market c...
by JoMoney
Tue Jul 03, 2018 3:10 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Rodents ate my car!
Replies: 61
Views: 5260

Re: Rodents ate my car!

Toyota Facing Class Action Over Soy-Based Wiring Insulation https://www.classaction.org/blog/toyota-facing-class-action-over-soybased-wiring-insulation Toyota Knocked with Another Class Action Over Soy-Based Wiring Insulation https://www.classaction.org/news/toyota-knocked-with-another-class-action-...
by JoMoney
Tue Jul 03, 2018 1:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Two WSJ articles on comparing index and actively managed endowments
Replies: 13
Views: 2174

Re: Two WSJ articles on comparing index and actively managed endowments

Badger1754 wrote:
Mon Jul 02, 2018 12:23 pm
...
For context, Quinnipiac has a 10-year return of 6.1%.
Nevada has a 10-year return of 6.8%.

:D
Vanguard LifeStrategy Moderate 10-year return 6.4%
Vanguard LifeStrategy Growth 10-year return 7.0%
Vanguard Balanced Index 10-year return 8.0%
Vanguard 500 Index 10-year return 10.3%
by JoMoney
Tue Jul 03, 2018 1:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Treasury Auction - Nobody Came: "Great T-Bill Massacre"
Replies: 145
Views: 11772

Re: Treasury Auction - Nobody Came: "Great T-Bill Massacre"

Sounds like the late 1950's when interest rates started to rise. Here's some related Time magazine snips I took awhile back when looking at this period: Monday, Dec. 03, 1956 Will the tight money market get tighter still? Last week, Wall Street apparently feared that it would, and that worry, plus y...
by JoMoney
Tue Jul 03, 2018 3:36 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Need Info/Experience With Opening Capital 360 Account
Replies: 7
Views: 509

Re: Need Info/Experience With Opening Capital 360 Account

I don't know if you can link a savings account or not. They did do away with the ability to scan checks, only mobile deposit (or mail) :( I've deposited cash at a "Capital One Cafe" ATM machine. If you search their ATM locations you can find ones that take deposits in a lot of major cities. ( I have...
by JoMoney
Tue Jul 03, 2018 2:42 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Expected returns for 80/20 stock bond for next 10 years.
Replies: 169
Views: 11979

Re: Expected returns for 80/20 stock bond for next 10 years.

If we look at historical real stock returns for rolling 10 year periods, somewhere between
-3.8 and +17.9
...or an average around 7% with some pretty wide room for variance
by JoMoney
Tue Jul 03, 2018 2:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividends are not coupons(interest)
Replies: 32
Views: 1809

Re: Dividends are not coupons(interest)

invstar wrote:
Mon Jul 02, 2018 2:22 pm
Why do they call bond fund monthly/quarterly payments as dividends? Are they not coupons/interest payments?
Because a mutual fund is a company ( a Regulated Investment Company ) that must pass it's income through to the owners (as dividends).