Search found 6050 matches

by JoMoney
Fri Nov 16, 2018 4:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Yes, You Can Time the Market!"
Replies: 51
Views: 11995

Re: "Yes, You Can Time the Market!"

Wasn't Been Stein just a (bad) comedian? No, he was a prominent economist, presidential adviser, and professor... who happened to appear in some comedies, and plays deadpan to great comedic effect. The co-author of this book is also a pretty good guy who, who has actually posted on bogleheads from ...
by JoMoney
Fri Nov 16, 2018 3:54 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How Long / Hard To Become a Millionaire on Under $100k Income
Replies: 71
Views: 5231

Re: How Long / Hard To Become a Millionaire on Under $100k Income

...if only I had found Bogle/ Dave Ramsey sooner... Despite Dave Ramsey's lousy mutual fund advice, I love one of his sayings, that there are only three things you can do with money, and you need to find balance between them "... You ought to always be spending some, giving some, and investing some...
by JoMoney
Fri Nov 16, 2018 3:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should I expect 4 funds to perform better than 2 funds?
Replies: 1
Views: 299

Re: Should I expect 4 funds to perform better than 2 funds?

What are the expenses of the different funds? All else being the same the funds with lower expenses will have an advantage. With regard to the the fewer vs more funds, I'm assuming the 2 funds are market-cap weighted and will only adjust based on changes in the market, and the 4 funds are constantly...
by JoMoney
Fri Nov 16, 2018 12:03 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How Long / Hard To Become a Millionaire on Under $100k Income
Replies: 71
Views: 5231

Re: How Long / Hard To Become a Millionaire on Under $100k Income

How much you're able to save and invest is a bigger factor than how much income you have. I know plenty of broke people who make a lot more than I do. Someone who saved $700 a month, and adjusted up with inflation for the past 25 years, and put it in the Vanguard S&P 500 index fund, would be a milli...
by JoMoney
Thu Nov 15, 2018 3:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Allan Roth: Creating Alpha Through Beta Funds
Replies: 3
Views: 476

Re: Allan Roth: Creating Alpha Through Beta Funds

It would be great if one could measure net expense ratio - gross expense ratio +/- profits to shareholders from securities lending and trading practices. Maybe look at the returns in the annual report compared to the index it tracks over a period of years -0.01% difference over a 10 year period cer...
by JoMoney
Thu Nov 15, 2018 2:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much international stock? A suggestion.
Replies: 439
Views: 78842

Re: How much international stock? A suggestion.

... These time periods also omit the very real 25 year period from 1970 (which is the inception of the MSCI World indexes) to 1997 when the diversified portfolio had higher returns, lower volatility, better risk-adjusted returns, and smaller maximum drawdowns than the undiversified US portfolio. An...
by JoMoney
Thu Nov 15, 2018 2:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much international stock? A suggestion.
Replies: 439
Views: 78842

Re: How much international stock? A suggestion.

That is a typical argument, except empirically it hasn't been the case when comparing a U.S. only portfolio (and possibly other countries I haven't looked at). A lower standard deviation should have a more narrow dispersion of outcomes. Can you point me to the empirical data? PV Link 1997-2018 100%...
by JoMoney
Thu Nov 15, 2018 1:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much international stock? A suggestion.
Replies: 439
Views: 78842

Re: How much international stock? A suggestion.

... The strongest argument I've heard for it is to eliminate the possibility of a very poor outcome. The dispersion of possible outcomes is objectively higher for a single country portfolio, whether it is a US only portfolio, a Russia only portfolio, or some other county, versus a global market cap...
by JoMoney
Thu Nov 15, 2018 12:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much international stock? A suggestion.
Replies: 439
Views: 78842

Re: How much international stock? A suggestion.

... If I was a buy-and-hold investor and was considering allocating a portion of my portfolio to international equities, my primary motivation for doing so would be to hedge against the possibility of the U.S. becoming Japan 2.0... The irony in that, is that international investing guaranteed you w...
by JoMoney
Thu Nov 15, 2018 12:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 401k Post Tax vs Brokerage Question
Replies: 9
Views: 519

Re: 401k Post Tax vs Brokerage Question

There could be a couple of potential downsides depending on what your plans are for the $$. You would not be able to take your Roth earnings penalty free if you needed the money prior to 59.5. Also, you would not be able to tax loss harvest if you had any losses. Thanks for the input! I did not con...
by JoMoney
Thu Nov 15, 2018 11:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much international stock? A suggestion.
Replies: 439
Views: 78842

Re: How much international stock? A suggestion.

It seems that what goes unsaid in these discussions, is what is the goal of "diversification".
Lower risk?
Higher "risk adjusted returns"?
Owning more individual pieces simply for the sake of more pieces?

Having an allocation to international stocks will definitely, objectively, do the last one.
by JoMoney
Thu Nov 15, 2018 11:42 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Dividend Growth Fund VDIGX
Replies: 9
Views: 853

Re: Dividend Growth Fund VDIGX

Hard to say. I'm personally a fan of the 500 index fund, that's what I use... But I also am extremely adverse to the idea of making portfolio changes, especially ones that are moving from a less risky to more risky position. I do think the Dividend Growth fund follows a style that is slightly less r...
by JoMoney
Thu Nov 15, 2018 10:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does Early Retirement Make You Live Longer?
Replies: 70
Views: 4179

Re: Does Early Retirement Make You Live Longer?

... Do you include the cost of those other subsidies when talking about the cost those goods/services? No, but I suppose I took it out of context and was simply shocked to see someone saying the costs had gone down. Not everyone is eligible for the insurance premium subsidies... and if something do...
by JoMoney
Thu Nov 15, 2018 9:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does Early Retirement Make You Live Longer?
Replies: 70
Views: 4179

Re: Does Early Retirement Make You Live Longer?

... I would tend to agree with this more had the ACA not been created, making individual health insurance more available and at lower cost than it had been before ... :shock: :confused That hasn't been the case with any data on health insurance costs that I've seen. Seems you are either willfully i...
by JoMoney
Thu Nov 15, 2018 9:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does Early Retirement Make You Live Longer?
Replies: 70
Views: 4179

Re: Does Early Retirement Make You Live Longer?

scrabbler1 wrote:
Thu Nov 15, 2018 8:52 am
...

I would tend to agree with this more had the ACA not been created, making individual health insurance more available and at lower cost than it had been before...
:shock: :confused That hasn't been the case with any data on health insurance costs that I've seen.
by JoMoney
Thu Nov 15, 2018 8:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does Early Retirement Make You Live Longer?
Replies: 70
Views: 4179

Re: Does Early Retirement Make You Live Longer?

Check out page 12 of this: https://www.sandia.gov/LabNews/LN11-16-01/labnews11-16-01.pdf ... As it turns out, this data is bogus but the claim has attained the status of an urban legend as it’s been disseminated via e-mail and fax ... ... Data for deceased Sandia retirees, both male and female, sho...
by JoMoney
Thu Nov 15, 2018 6:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: World GDP by country 1960-2018 Video
Replies: 7
Views: 608

Re: World GDP by country 1960-2018 Video

... The low R-squareds would suggest that this just isn't a very good model for explaining stock returns? There are other factors in play. Yes, I think that's probably a better assessment, ...but it is still interesting that if there is any correlation it's a negative correlation especially contras...
by JoMoney
Thu Nov 15, 2018 5:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: World GDP by country 1960-2018 Video
Replies: 7
Views: 608

Re: World GDP by country 1960-2018 Video

(Direct link to video: https://streamable.com/l4nau ) Interesting... Thanks for sharing... something else to consider, that may be counter-intuitive, is that GDP growth doesn't necessarily correlate with stock market returns: ... it will probably surprise readers to learn that there is a negative co...
by JoMoney
Thu Nov 15, 2018 3:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much international stock? A suggestion.
Replies: 439
Views: 78842

Re: How much international stock? A suggestion.

Any benefit of DCA'ing into my Roth IRA for 2019 instead of just one lump sum? The reason I ask is, I put $5500 into Total International into a Roth IRA around 1/3/2018, and it just got crushed over the course of the year. If I DCA, it seems like it wouldn't be as painful. Look forward to feedback ...
by JoMoney
Thu Nov 15, 2018 3:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much international stock? A suggestion.
Replies: 439
Views: 78842

Re: How much international stock? A suggestion.

... Despite Mr. Bogle's position, that he doesn't feel an international allocation is " necessary " for U.S. investors, he doesn't tell anyone not to do it, he just gives them his opinion on it, his rationale for doing so, and advises people to make up their own mind. Ok, so it's now not objective ...
by JoMoney
Thu Nov 15, 2018 1:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does Early Retirement Make You Live Longer?
Replies: 70
Views: 4179

Re: Does Early Retirement Make You Live Longer?

Check out page 12 of this: https://www.sandia.gov/LabNews/LN11-16-01/labnews11-16-01.pdf ... As it turns out, this data is bogus but the claim has attained the status of an urban legend as it’s been disseminated via e-mail and fax ... ... Data for deceased Sandia retirees, both male and female, show...
by JoMoney
Thu Nov 15, 2018 12:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much international stock? A suggestion.
Replies: 439
Views: 78842

Re: How much international stock? A suggestion.

How do those who are anti-international investing recommend a Canadian investor should deal with this? Right now, my equity investments are generally aligned with global market caps, with a slight tilt towards US. FWIW, there's a big difference between the people who say that an international alloc...
by JoMoney
Wed Nov 14, 2018 1:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: My Grandmother has 80% stocks
Replies: 55
Views: 5239

Re: My Grandmother has 80% stocks

If she's owned the funds a long time, chances are good she's been through a few market cycles and knows what her tolerance level is. If she has social security, pensions, other income, she may not be in any particular near term need of the money. If she's concerned about the taxes involved from sell...
by JoMoney
Wed Nov 14, 2018 12:52 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: DCA – change of tune, loss of nerve, and how to time?
Replies: 23
Views: 1183

Re: DCA – change of tune, loss of nerve, and how to time?

...Any ideas on how to handle the logistics and timing? All the funds will be in Vanguard. We will also need to keep some liquid for taxes. I think I would put it in the settlement fund, or my linked high-yield savings account, and use the automatic scheduled investment tool to setup multiple autom...
by JoMoney
Wed Nov 14, 2018 12:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Broad Market Index fund designed not to distribute?
Replies: 3
Views: 255

Re: Broad Market Index fund designed not to distribute?

Global100 wrote:
Wed Nov 14, 2018 12:34 pm
... Or maybe such a hypothetical fund does not exit because regulations require funds to distribute dividends?
Yes, in order to prevent having to pay taxes on the dividends at the corporate level the "mutual fund" must distribute the dividends.
by JoMoney
Wed Nov 14, 2018 12:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much international stock? A suggestion.
Replies: 439
Views: 78842

Re: How much international stock? A suggestion.

... The only thing I haven't seen added yet, that I would like to add, is the notion that, today, American companies are largely multinational, and international economies get captured in, say, a total market fund or an S&P fund. Doesn't this work in reverse as well? In other words, I drive a Toyot...
by JoMoney
Wed Nov 14, 2018 6:29 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is there an online checking account that can do these three things?
Replies: 19
Views: 1155

Re: Is there an online checking account that can do these three things?

Capital One 360 does all of that.
Depending on your region though, it can be hard to find an ATM that accepts deposits.

-Note: Even though Capital One allows me to withdraw $1000 a day via ATM, some ATM machines have limits that are smaller
by JoMoney
Wed Nov 14, 2018 1:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much international stock? A suggestion.
Replies: 439
Views: 78842

Re: How much international stock? A suggestion.

Jack Bogle has struggled (for decades) on accepting ETF's as useful tools in a low-cost index fund investment strategy, so it's no surprise he also has problems with ex-US investing. It's very hard to move beyond what you built and had great success in life with. Jack Bogle gives reasons and presen...
by JoMoney
Tue Nov 13, 2018 10:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Oops! Edward Jones tops Vanguard in customer survey
Replies: 50
Views: 5027

Re: Oops! Edward Jones tops Vanguard in customer survey

Edward Jones will become your best friend for about 1% of your net worth per annum.
by JoMoney
Tue Nov 13, 2018 2:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much international stock? A suggestion.
Replies: 439
Views: 78842

Re: How much international stock? A suggestion.

So, have a heavy weighting of Japan stock, because consider what would have happened if you had been buying Japan stocks. :confused :confused :confused Don't bring up Russia and China, that's just not characteristic of international investing. :shock: :shock: :shock: And if you're a U.S. investor wi...
by JoMoney
Tue Nov 13, 2018 1:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much international stock? A suggestion.
Replies: 439
Views: 78842

Re: How much international stock? A suggestion.

. Crediting the source that had the more accurate ex ante view is more than just an "appeal to authority". Sure, because we all know that past performance is a guarantee of future results. Seriously. Playing the lottery doesn’t become a smart financial decision just because Jack Bogle played it and...
by JoMoney
Tue Nov 13, 2018 1:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much international stock? A suggestion.
Replies: 439
Views: 78842

Re: How much international stock? A suggestion.

... It's not that who gives the advice is more important than the logic of that advice but that not all advice is created equal. Bogle's recommendations carry more weight than mine, and they should because he is an recognized expert. It's also helpful when the advice actually works. Bogle wrote a c...
by JoMoney
Tue Nov 13, 2018 12:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much international stock? A suggestion.
Replies: 439
Views: 78842

Re: How much international stock? A suggestion.

... It does suggest that younger, more educated people are less likely to blindly follow the archaic advice of yesterday’s heroes. That’s nothing but a good thing, IMHO. Younger people get older, and sometimes wiser. If they are following advice "blindly", maybe they'll learn to be more critical of...
by JoMoney
Tue Nov 13, 2018 11:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much international stock? A suggestion.
Replies: 439
Views: 78842

Re: How much international stock? A suggestion.

... What he is saying is this way of thinking is on it's way out. In time it will be a minority if not already. I think Viv referenced a survey above. If that's what he meant to say, he sure used a lot of words to not say that. I saw the paper Vineviz linked, suggesting rising levels of internation...
by JoMoney
Tue Nov 13, 2018 8:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bloomberg: GE Preferred STOCK in Vanguard short bond funds??
Replies: 14
Views: 1582

Re: Bloomberg: GE Preferred STOCK in Vanguard short bond funds??

"Vanguard Short-Term Investment-Grade Fund" is an actively managed fund. Read the prospectus and investment strategy for the fund, they can do a variety of things on the margins while having most of the fund strictly in bonds. https://personal.vanguard.com/pub/Pdf/p028.pdf?2210142530 ... Each of the...
by JoMoney
Tue Nov 13, 2018 6:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much international stock? A suggestion.
Replies: 439
Views: 78842

Re: How much international stock? A suggestion.

Just because somebody is right on one topic does not automatically mean they are right on other topics even within the same field. In the sciences it is almost a cliche that elderly scientists, even ones who were rebels in their youth, are the ones resisting the new truths. Einstein is a classic ex...
by JoMoney
Mon Nov 12, 2018 6:16 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Are We In A Real Estate Bubble?
Replies: 95
Views: 10561

Re: Are We In A Real Estate Bubble?

... Owner occupied residential RE can very very highly leveraged - 95%+ from what we are reading here (not sure how that reemerged post Crash, but apparently it has). 95% leverage gives a lot of room for big price swings because of forced liquidation at the bottom... FWIW, 95% leveraged for persona...
by JoMoney
Sun Nov 11, 2018 8:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What? I'm a Vanguard Owner?
Replies: 10
Views: 1721

Re: What? I'm a Vanguard Owner?

The non-profit nature sounds great, and in general over the years Vanguard has been a leader in cost reductions. I don't think Vanguard is a non-profit, or even a not-for-profit. If it were they would have to publish certain reports that they make to the IRS - like how much the managers are paid. T...
by JoMoney
Sun Nov 11, 2018 7:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much international stock? A suggestion.
Replies: 439
Views: 78842

Re: How much international stock? A suggestion.

Good luck with your investments in international bonds, oil futures, Russian real estate, and bitcoin. In the interest of pure diversification, of course. :beer Embrace it. If that caricature is what people think diversification means, I'm not surprised that some people have a hard time pushing pas...
by JoMoney
Sun Nov 11, 2018 5:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much international stock? A suggestion.
Replies: 439
Views: 78842

Re: How much international stock? A suggestion.

Absolutely debunked. And handily, I might add. No contest. If that's what you think, then more power to you and good luck with your investing. As far as I can see, most open-minded and well-educated investors can see through the xenophobic rhetoric and embrace the principles of diversification. +1 ...
by JoMoney
Sun Nov 11, 2018 5:36 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: question from "not the smartest personal computer guy in the world"
Replies: 12
Views: 1692

Re: question from "not the smartest personal computer guy in the world"

I second the idea of considering a Chromebook. They're great, even better for someone who is not especially tech savvy. I would not keep passwords stored on the computer. If you're keeping a hard-copy printed out/written down that should be good enough (but make sure you're storing that in a locked ...
by JoMoney
Sun Nov 11, 2018 4:52 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Looking for computer suggestions
Replies: 17
Views: 1357

Re: Looking for computer suggestions

... Another option appears to be Chromebooks. They are much cheaper, need to be connected to the internet, and don’t run a “real” operating system. I don’t think they offer the functionality I’m looking for. Things I want to be able to do: Watch video Surf the web and enter text Use a telnet app to...
by JoMoney
Sun Nov 11, 2018 2:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much international stock? A suggestion.
Replies: 439
Views: 78842

Re: How much international stock? A suggestion.

Plz wrote:
Sun Nov 11, 2018 2:25 am
...

How do the $2.4M and $2.1M translate to the $717k and $655k?
One is covering a 32 year period, one is covering a 20 year period.
by JoMoney
Sat Nov 10, 2018 11:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Index Fund Admiral Shares Question
Replies: 22
Views: 2423

Re: Vanguard Index Fund Admiral Shares Question

There are lots of broad market U.S. indices to choose from. There are minor differences between them. Trying to predict which one might have slightly higher performance at some future date is a fools errand, it's unknowable, and so noisy that picking a slightly different start or end date will give ...
by JoMoney
Sat Nov 10, 2018 10:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What? I'm a Vanguard Owner?
Replies: 10
Views: 1721

Re: What? I'm a Vanguard Owner?

Yes, you are an owner, but only in a theoretical sense. You have no more voice in Vanguard's decision-making process than you do in the decision-making processes of Schwab or Fidelity where you are not an owner. Schwab (Ticker: SCHW ) is a publicly traded company, if you owned enough shares, as wit...
by JoMoney
Sat Nov 10, 2018 10:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What? I'm a Vanguard Owner?
Replies: 10
Views: 1721

Re: What? I'm a Vanguard Owner?

When you buy shares in a company, you are a part/fractional owner of the company. Your "ownership" is proportional to the number of shares you own, you get to vote for board members, and certain measures regarding how the company operates. If you owned a majority of the shares you could essentially ...
by JoMoney
Sat Nov 10, 2018 7:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Index Fund Admiral Shares Question
Replies: 22
Views: 2423

Re: Vanguard Index Fund Admiral Shares Question

My equities are currently invested in S&P 500 index funds, I use VFIAX for the assets that are at Vanguard. VTSAX is so close to being the same thing, it's hardly worthwhile making a big distinction between them. Really. That being said, here's some of the reasons I prefer the S&P index: I like S&P'...
by JoMoney
Sat Nov 10, 2018 5:44 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Admiral share class for total world stock
Replies: 24
Views: 1940

Re: Admiral share class for total world stock

If it ever happens, my guess would be that the "Institutional class" version of the fund VTWIX would at some point be converted to admiral class. There was another fund, I can't remember off hand, that had the admiral class created that way.
by JoMoney
Sat Nov 10, 2018 5:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Are We In A Real Estate Bubble?
Replies: 95
Views: 10561

Re: Are We In A Real Estate Bubble?

Real estate is local. ... I don’t recall it being so “local” in 2007-2008? :D But you know... perhaps this time it’s different! Directionaly most of the housing market was going down, but there was some wide differences in regional markets NAR data on difference From 4th quarter 2007 to 4th quarter...
by JoMoney
Sat Nov 10, 2018 4:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Mid and Small Caps?
Replies: 38
Views: 3113

Re: Mid and Small Caps?

Interestingly, there are only about five stocks that overlap if you compare the ~300 stocks in the CRSP US Mid Cap Index with the 400 stocks on the S&P Mid Cap 400 Index. The companies in the CRSP index have a much higher market cap than the companies in the S&P index. If you compare the holdings o...