Search found 6635 matches

by JoMoney
Tue Apr 23, 2019 1:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stocks will return about 4% annually over the next decade or so rather than the 10% average annual returns - John Bogle
Replies: 104
Views: 13295

Re: Stocks will return about 4% annually over the next decade or so rather than the 10% average annual returns - John Bo

My Wild-A$$-Guess for the next decade, is U.S. stocks will yield about 2% in dividends + 6% growth Minus 2-3% for inflation, sums up to around 4-5% real. Despite their current elevated levels, valuation price multiples will remain around current levels. Volatility will have some wild swings, as is t...
by JoMoney
Sun Apr 21, 2019 9:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: In which companies do you own a single share, or token amount, of stock?
Replies: 79
Views: 4413

Re: In which companies do you own a single share, or token amount, of stock?

I sold off the individual stocks I owned, many of them I had a certificate of at least one share of, owning the single shares of stock became a paperwork nightmare. No broker tracking basis, dividends, or other accounting for you. Tax statements and dividend checks amounting to pennies. If you don't...
by JoMoney
Sun Apr 21, 2019 9:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cash Flow vs Appreciation - Same thing?
Replies: 23
Views: 993

Re: Cash Flow vs Appreciation - Same thing?

Personally, I would view owning the apartment complex as being a job (at least part-time job) that should be providing extra income over passive investments. Being a landlord is a type of business, it's not really "diversified", but at least you have control over some aspects and might be able to ma...
by JoMoney
Sun Apr 21, 2019 9:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Annuity Puzzle: Findings from a Recent Survey
Replies: 37
Views: 2435

Re: The Annuity Puzzle: Findings from a Recent Survey

Also, the limiting of annual inflation to 1 to 3% seems like a tremendous oversight. Future inflation is problematic for bonds and any fixed-income investment. Theoretically inflation expectations are being priced into the interest rates bonds (and annuities) are offering today... So what differenc...
by JoMoney
Sat Apr 20, 2019 11:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Annuity Puzzle: Findings from a Recent Survey
Replies: 37
Views: 2435

Re: The Annuity Puzzle: Findings from a Recent Survey

Also, the limiting of annual inflation to 1 to 3% seems like a tremendous oversight. Future inflation is problematic for bonds and any fixed-income investment. Theoretically inflation expectations are being priced into the interest rates bonds (and annuities) are offering today... So what differenc...
by JoMoney
Sat Apr 20, 2019 11:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Annuity Puzzle: Findings from a Recent Survey
Replies: 37
Views: 2435

Re: The Annuity Puzzle: Findings from a Recent Survey

Also, the limiting of annual inflation to 1 to 3% seems like a tremendous oversight. Future inflation is problematic for bonds and any fixed-income investment. Theoretically inflation expectations are being priced into the interest rates bonds (and annuities) are offering today... So what differenc...
by JoMoney
Sat Apr 20, 2019 11:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Annuity Puzzle: Findings from a Recent Survey
Replies: 37
Views: 2435

Re: The Annuity Puzzle: Findings from a Recent Survey

I was planning to use my RMDs as my "annuity," but the quote I get on $100,000 SPIA exceeds that or is very close for me at age 70. Very tempting. What would I use 100k in IRA money for otherwise? Is it safer from creditors as an annuity? One answer, would be that if you plan on leaving money for o...
by JoMoney
Sat Apr 20, 2019 10:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Annuity Puzzle: Findings from a Recent Survey
Replies: 37
Views: 2435

Re: The Annuity Puzzle: Findings from a Recent Survey

I'm surprised about the number of investment professionals that trash-talk SPIA's. The explanation I usually figure is a conflict of interests because advisers usually get paid much bigger commissions to sell other types of annuities and/or paid for assets under management ... and those assets are n...
by JoMoney
Fri Apr 19, 2019 8:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Hedging against hyperinflation scenario
Replies: 47
Views: 2988

Re: Hedging against hyperinflation scenario

The problem with trying to hedge against an economic extreme in your home country, is there would likely be capital controls put into place to prevent the flow of funds out of the country during the crisis... which leads to foreign retaliatory measures preventing moving money back in, possible confi...
by JoMoney
Fri Apr 19, 2019 7:18 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Real Estate Advertising
Replies: 8
Views: 546

Re: Real Estate Advertising

The last realtor I used (when selling a place), had been regularly sending periodic mailers (to I assume everyone in my condo development) saying how they "specialized" in condos in our area, playing up the hot market and recent comparable sale prices, and that commissions were lower with them. When...
by JoMoney
Thu Apr 18, 2019 8:48 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Bogleheads privacy warning
Replies: 61
Views: 5297

Re: Bogleheads privacy warning

livesoft wrote:
Thu Apr 18, 2019 8:44 am
The forum has "show all posts by hornet96" link:
search.php?author_id=41214&sr=posts
You can even search for when they've said specific things
search.php?st=0&sk=t&sd=d&sr=posts&keyw ... hor_id=648
by JoMoney
Thu Apr 18, 2019 8:34 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Home Page for Your Computer:
Replies: 17
Views: 1179

Re: Home Page for Your Computer:

My home page is actually blank. When I open my browser, I generally know exactly what website I want to visit. No need to load another one first. :thumbsup I use the Chrome browser, and when sent to blank/no home page it has this annoying "feature" of putting shortcut thumbnails to frequently visit...
by JoMoney
Thu Apr 18, 2019 7:58 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Bogleheads privacy warning
Replies: 61
Views: 5297

Re: Bogleheads privacy warning

This is why people shouldn't use their real name as their handle. Full disclosure: my middle name is not "mike" :) only 10% of the country have assets over 1 million, what is the possibility the millionaire lives next door to you out of 300 million? If 10% of 300 million people are millionaires = 3...
by JoMoney
Thu Apr 18, 2019 7:44 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: microwave that doesnt beep forever?
Replies: 24
Views: 1431

Re: microwave that doesnt beep forever?

Find one with a turn-knob timer, they usually just do a single "ding" when finished
Image
by JoMoney
Thu Apr 18, 2019 1:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Lawton Study and Zeroes
Replies: 17
Views: 1544

Re: Lawton Study and Zeroes

... Okay JoMoney, I'll bite. Are you suggesting that "Vanguard Marketing Corporation" has elite shareholders who operate at a profit? ... Not that they operate at a profit, but "Vanguard" is owned by the mutual funds, for the benefit of those funds to perform functions like marketing and administra...
by JoMoney
Wed Apr 17, 2019 7:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Lawton Study and Zeroes
Replies: 17
Views: 1544

Re: Lawton Study and Zeroes

... Okay JoMoney, I'll bite. Are you suggesting that "Vanguard Marketing Corporation" has elite shareholders who operate at a profit? ... Not that they operate at a profit, but "Vanguard" is owned by the mutual funds, for the benefit of those funds to perform functions like marketing and administra...
by JoMoney
Wed Apr 17, 2019 8:17 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Do you pick up after renting a vacation rental?
Replies: 51
Views: 3402

Re: Do you pick up after renting a vacation rental?

It really depends on how you were raised. If you were raised to clean up after yourself then you can't stop yourself from doing it. In fact you wouldn't feel comfortable unless you did pick up after yourself. Those that never internalized picking up after themselves are another story. :thumbsup I w...
by JoMoney
Wed Apr 17, 2019 7:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Lawton Study and Zeroes
Replies: 17
Views: 1544

Re: Lawton Study and Zeroes

Nate79 wrote:
Tue Apr 16, 2019 9:43 pm
All of the big brokers, Vanguard, Schwab, and Fidelity offer both active and passive funds.
Yup... Not only does Vanguard ("Vanguard Marketing Corporation") sell active funds, the active funds also "own" Vanguard, and Vanguard advertises and creates promotional material for active funds.
by JoMoney
Tue Apr 16, 2019 8:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stocks will return about 4% annually over the next decade or so rather than the 10% average annual returns - John Bogle
Replies: 104
Views: 13295

Re: Stocks will return about 4% annually over the next decade or so rather than the 10% average annual returns - John Bo

"If you don't like the weather, wait a minute" Anything between 2 and 12% seems plausible over a ten year period (or even more/less at extremes). I wouldn't be surprised if in years down the road we have a decade long period that had 8% returns only to be followed by a period that shows 4% or vice ...
by JoMoney
Mon Apr 15, 2019 10:28 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: seriously thinking about leaving S. CA but where to?
Replies: 177
Views: 9774

Re: seriously thinking about leaving S. CA but where to?

Most places where people live are pretty darn livable. It might be good to just pick someplace, anyplace, and try it out for awhile knowing you're not locked in and have the rest of your life to try somewhere else. Is there nowhere in particular you have attachments to, friends, family, community yo...
by JoMoney
Sun Apr 14, 2019 10:36 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: If you have plenty of money, why not 100% stocks in retirement?
Replies: 107
Views: 7013

Re: If you have plenty of money, why not 100% stocks in retirement?

Stocks are not money, if you have "plenty of money" then you're not 100% stocks. If you have a good emergency fund or whatever you want to call a stash of short-term cash, regular secure fixed income via job/social security/pension/annuities that covers most of your expenses, then if you're comforta...
by JoMoney
Sat Apr 13, 2019 10:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: ETFs vs. Mutual Funds ("Bogleheads Mentioned in the NYT")
Replies: 59
Views: 8196

ETFs vs. Mutual Funds ("Bogleheads Mentioned in the NYT")

ETFs are grape bricks. Aptly and hilariously put. Much like ordering a diet coke to accompany a double beef Whopper and super-sized fries. Pretty un-Boglehead IMO. Absolutely ridiculous. I can't stand these comments about "anti-Boglehead". There are MANY of us on the forum with good index portfolio...
by JoMoney
Sat Apr 13, 2019 9:43 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Young And Senior Community
Replies: 10
Views: 1171

Re: Young And Senior Community

Be aware that senior communities are usually filled with people who are home all day, and for better or worse, sometimes there's a few that are very nosy into what everybody else in the neighborhood is doing. If you expect to be living elsewhere a few months of the year, this may be a good thing to ...
by JoMoney
Thu Apr 11, 2019 8:02 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: International under-performance
Replies: 204
Views: 11673

Re: International under-performance

I'm gonna have to agree with visualguy here. I immigrated to the US from the world's 2nd largest economy 10+ yrs ago. Sure. Why should we rely on silly things like financial and economic evidence when we can just use anecdotes and intuition instead? What do legions of PhD-trained economists know th...
by JoMoney
Wed Apr 10, 2019 7:35 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: International under-performance
Replies: 204
Views: 11673

Re: International under-performance

... the #2 international holding in VTIAX is Tencent, and #4 is Alibaba. No two ways about it, you're quite literally buying into China when buying international right now... Are you really buying it though? If you owned all of the "shares" of what's being sold as Alibaba stock could you take it pr...
by JoMoney
Wed Apr 10, 2019 7:20 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: International under-performance
Replies: 204
Views: 11673

Re: International under-performance

cj2018 wrote:
Wed Apr 10, 2019 6:44 pm
...
Image
Interesting chart, thanks for sharing it.
Just looking at the top 25 stocks as weighted in Vanguard's "Total World" fund, only 3 of the top 25 stocks aren't in a Total U.S. index.
by JoMoney
Wed Apr 10, 2019 8:21 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: International under-performance
Replies: 204
Views: 11673

Re: International under-performance

... Second, we already know that globally diversified portfolios have LESS volatility than single-country portfolios. As a result, the common presumption of uncompensated currency risk is starting from a counter-factual position. Third, unlike most assets we own, foreign currency exposure is essent...
by JoMoney
Wed Apr 10, 2019 7:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Non-Transparent ETFs APPROVED!
Replies: 6
Views: 687

Re: Non-Transparent ETFs APPROVED!

Bizarre. So there are people that want to intra-day trade funds that are themselves internally actively traded by the managers... ?
by JoMoney
Tue Apr 09, 2019 9:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: REITs vs. Actual Real Estate Returns, 1904-2015
Replies: 18
Views: 1638

Re: REITs vs. Actual Real Estate Returns, 1904-2015

I would not expect the longer term returns to be dis-similar unless there was something fishy going on like fraud, stale prices, illiquid market, etc.. A REIT is "actual Real Estate" just with fractional ownership. I can imagine that most REITs would be more commercial, and focused heavier in major ...
by JoMoney
Tue Apr 09, 2019 9:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fidelity rep confirms Zero funds are loss leaders (Jane Bryant Quinn)
Replies: 32
Views: 2997

Re: Fidelity rep confirms Zero funds are loss leaders (Jane Bryant Quinn)

The 'problem' with loss leaders like this, is if or when they decide to end this promotion the clients who are cost sensitive have to go looking elsewhere for the best deal, which is problematic for taxable investment accounts where moving out of the fund will trigger a taxable event.
by JoMoney
Tue Apr 09, 2019 8:30 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Should I regularly replace the water filter in the fridge?
Replies: 50
Views: 4007

Re: Should I regularly replace the water filter in the fridge?

Whether or not you need filter is debatable to begin with. Despite some stark exceptions most places in the U.S. have good safe tap water that is completely safe from the tap. Filters are sold advertising how much stuff is removed, but filtering water removes minerals many are deficient in like calc...
by JoMoney
Tue Apr 09, 2019 12:06 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Theory: NOW is the Best Time for Total World Stock
Replies: 126
Views: 14227

Re: Theory: NOW is the Best Time for Total World Stock

How did you model this? Portfolio Visualizer Backtest for Asset class only goes back to 1972. I would love to see some data further back PortfolioVisualizer allows you to import your own data series, with daily values back to 1970 (I think) and month values to 1930, so that's what I did. In this ca...
by JoMoney
Mon Apr 08, 2019 8:30 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: International under-performance
Replies: 204
Views: 11673

Re: International under-performance

International equity funds by-and-large have badly under-performed US over the past 10 years. The degree of under-performance seems to belie the rationale in the comments of “why bother (going above 0-20%) since most large US companies have a significant overseas presence”. Q1: Is there a particula...
by JoMoney
Sun Apr 07, 2019 10:34 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Theory: NOW is the Best Time for Total World Stock
Replies: 126
Views: 14227

Re: Theory: NOW is the Best Time for Total World Stock

Curious to see if anyone else has given some more thought towards this topic and is considering going 100% into VTWAX? I've "thought about it", hard not to with constant hum on here of those advocating for it... but I'm sticking with good ol' S&P500 index fund. Best wishes to those who believe that...
by JoMoney
Sat Apr 06, 2019 9:50 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Those that have an "Anti-Boglehead" investment account, what are your "risky" plays?
Replies: 92
Views: 6300

Re: Those that have an "Anti-Boglehead" investment account, what are your "risky" plays?

Wiggums wrote:
Sat Apr 06, 2019 7:12 am
If I’m gonna gamble, I’d rather play poker. Now shuffle up and deal...
Came here to essentially say this. I make it a point not to confuse my "funny money" and my savings/investments, blurring the lines between my gambling and my investments is problematic.
by JoMoney
Fri Apr 05, 2019 6:59 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Your opinion on debt?
Replies: 111
Views: 6515

Re: Your opinion on debt?

Debt is useful if you can use the money to do something more valuable than the cost of carrying the debt. Often, you'll get a tax deduction on the interest costs to carry debt on something that's yielding a positive return... Conversely, financing consumption is horrible and you have to find some ot...
by JoMoney
Fri Apr 05, 2019 6:20 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: URGENT! Expat taxes: California state taxes, driver's license renewal, foreign tax credit,
Replies: 27
Views: 1030

Re: California state taxes for US expat renewing CA license

Sorry, didn't have time to read all that was posted only briefly scanned. Be aware of California's Non-Resident Safe Harbor, if you are tax "domiciled" in California (even though no longer a resident) and you do not expect to live in California for at least 546 days (roughly >year and a half) and yo...
by JoMoney
Fri Apr 05, 2019 6:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: FIDO Zero Funds losing to Vanguard?
Replies: 58
Views: 6699

Re: FIDO Zero Funds losing to Vanguard?

FWIW on a apples to apples index, the Fidelity 500 index FXAIX has had slightly better total returns than the Vanguard 500 VFIAX MStar Growth Chart Since there are multiple different "Total Market" indices, comparing funds tracking a different index isn't the right comparison. The Russell 3000 and W...
by JoMoney
Wed Apr 03, 2019 11:09 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What is Financial Independence (FI) in the simplest terms?
Replies: 80
Views: 4687

Re: What is Financial Independence (FI) in the simplest terms?

FI:
I have all the money I'll ever need, if I die tomorrow...
;)
by JoMoney
Sun Mar 31, 2019 11:17 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Good computer with solid state drive (SSD)
Replies: 36
Views: 2129

Re: Good computer with solid state drive (SSD)

FWIW, I like Chromebook / Chrome'box', most all of the newer models use SSD, but not a whole lot of storage (usually around 16-32gb). Works for me. I have an ASUS CHROMEBOX 3 plugged into my TV, and an older Acer Chromebook 11 notebook (that I kind of hope will break so i can get a newer model that ...
by JoMoney
Sun Mar 31, 2019 11:10 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Good computer with solid state drive (SSD)
Replies: 36
Views: 2129

Re: Good computer with solid state detector (SSD)

Detector? I don't mean to distract from your question, but SSD "Solid-State Drive" is a replacement for a traditional spinning disk drive.
I'm not sure what it would be detecting ;)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solid-state_drive
by JoMoney
Sun Mar 31, 2019 10:47 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How often do you check your net worth?
Replies: 257
Views: 14253

Re: How often do you check your net worth?

All of my assets are in accounts that I know the balance of all the time (roughly, within a few thousand dollars depending on spending and normal market fluctuations). The figure that is more interesting to me, is what the annual income that nut could produce, which I would figure by typing it into ...
by JoMoney
Sun Mar 31, 2019 10:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 3-fund Portfolio Tracking?
Replies: 7
Views: 1225

Re: 3-fund Portfolio Tracking?

In addition to using PortfolioVisualizer.com to either backtest your own version of the 3-fund using whatever funds at whatever allocation you want, I would point to the Vanguard LifeStrategy all-in-one funds as being virtual 3-fund portfolios (even though they've rejiggered their international allo...
by JoMoney
Sat Mar 30, 2019 8:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Net expense ratios of SCV ETFs after securities lending
Replies: 10
Views: 418

Re: Net expense ratios of SCV ETFs after securities lending

Vanguard has very good detailed accounting and balance sheets including the money from securities lending included in the annual reports. Other funds don't make that information as easily available. A quicker way to compare the returns though would be to go to morningstar.com and make a growth chart...
by JoMoney
Fri Mar 29, 2019 8:03 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Non-US Bogleheads who overweight US?
Replies: 23
Views: 1738

Re: Non-US Bogleheads who overweight US?

What counts as a "Non-US" Boglehead? I'm an Australian resident, but U.S. citizen. I'm sure there are some U.S. resident, but non-U.S. citizens on here too. ... and for that matter, what counts as a Boglehead? I follow the advice of John Bogle investing in a simple bond and U.S. stock index fund and...
by JoMoney
Thu Mar 28, 2019 8:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much $$ would it take for you walk away from investing?
Replies: 45
Views: 4098

Re: How much $$ would it take for you walk away from investing?

Jack FFR1846 wrote:
Thu Mar 28, 2019 8:17 am
I would need $6,397,654.88
I appreciate the precision in your multi-decade out projection of future expenses ;)
by JoMoney
Thu Mar 28, 2019 8:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Morningstar: Gender bias in adviser advice
Replies: 2
Views: 471

Re: Morningstar: Gender bias in adviser advice

When I look at advertisements selling products on TV, pretty sure they sometimes target different genders too
by JoMoney
Thu Mar 28, 2019 8:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much $$ would it take for you walk away from investing?
Replies: 45
Views: 4098

Re: How much $$ would it take for you walk away from investing?

https://www.immediateannuities.com/
says that it would take just a little bit over $1 million for a 40 year old male to buy a $50,000 a year lifetime annuity.
I'd probably want double that to help with the impact of inflation, and expect social security assist with some of that after around age 70
by JoMoney
Thu Mar 28, 2019 7:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why has the S&P500 gone up so much since 2009?
Replies: 37
Views: 3920

Re: Why has the S&P500 gone up so much since 2009?

For the four quarters ending 12/31/2009, the S&P 500 paid $22.41 in dividends (per share)
For the four quarters ending 12/31/2018, the S&P 500 paid $53.75 in dividends (per share)
About 10.2% annualized growth
Meanwhile the yields on guaranteed investments/bonds have gone down
by JoMoney
Tue Mar 26, 2019 7:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: ‘Passive’ Market Efficiency Works
Replies: 27
Views: 2319

Re: Larry Swedroe: ‘Passive’ Market Efficiency Works

The only danger that I can see from a shift to index/passive investing is that individual companies will be able to pass initiatives at shareholders meetings that may benefit the management team and not the majority of shareholders. Index funds may truly be passive in their voting. I may be wrong a...