Search found 7555 matches

by JoMoney
Wed Nov 13, 2019 8:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Help me understand Owl Rock's 7% return
Replies: 14
Views: 911

Re: Help me understand Owl Rock's 7% return

Benjamin Graham in The Intelligent Investor wrote:... It is when the investor demands more than an average return on his money, or when his adviser undertakes to do better for him, that the question arises whether more is being asked or promised than is likely to be delivered...
by JoMoney
Wed Nov 13, 2019 9:27 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: SIL retirement puzzle
Replies: 42
Views: 2587

Re: SIL retirement puzzle

Total value of cars should be less than half annual income. Housing rent/mortgage should ideally be less than 1/3 annual income. A 63 year old has an expected lifespan of 22.7 years. At a 2% interest rate, $413k (HY savings) amortized over 22.7 years is about $1,900 a month (if they were considering...
by JoMoney
Wed Nov 13, 2019 8:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard and basketball
Replies: 12
Views: 1157

Re: Vanguard and basketball

:shock: I'm shocked, shocked to find Vanguard Marketing Corporation doing marketing ;) The mutual funds that own Vanguard do so for the services it provides... among them, marketing. Funds want to grow there AUM, which has benefits for the fund owners by way of lower costs (fixed costs spread over a...
by JoMoney
Wed Nov 13, 2019 12:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Flaws with 4% Rule?
Replies: 29
Views: 2904

Re: Flaws with 4% Rule?

Stocks are volatile. 4% isn't guaranteed. Nothing is. It seems foolish to let our well-being ride on an uncertain endeavor nobody on earth knows the result of... but we don't really have a choice. I'll pick something that appears to work in the world as I've experienced or learned about it, and adap...
by JoMoney
Wed Nov 13, 2019 12:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin Talk
Replies: 50
Views: 5734

Re: Bitcoin Talk

Valuation model? It's worth whatever you can get someone to exchange for it.
There's a lot of people who wouldn't go through the effort of setting up a crypto-wallet to accept it if they were giving it away.
by JoMoney
Mon Nov 11, 2019 10:08 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: I think my friend is already financially independent (through a fantastic bitcoin investment), can you confirm?
Replies: 49
Views: 6795

Re: I think my friend is already financially independent (through a fantastic bitcoin investment), can you confirm?

An actuarial life expectancy table would peg a 34 year old as having 49.4 more years If I read your post correctly, His assets amount to about $2.7M, and his expenses are 36,000+15,000+20,000+7,500 = $78,500 (78,500 in expenses) * (49.4 life expectancy) =$3,877,900 So he's quite a bit shy of being a...
by JoMoney
Mon Nov 11, 2019 9:38 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Google Drive Search Question
Replies: 2
Views: 224

Re: Google Drive Search Question

I'm guessing if you open the document where you changed "oz" to "ounce", clicked on menu-bar: FILE>VERSION HISTORY>SHOW VERSION HISTORY
You would see that the word "oz" does still exist in the document, but as a historical version of it... I'm guessing that's where the search is finding it.
by JoMoney
Mon Nov 11, 2019 12:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Index Funds Bubble? [Michael Burry article]
Replies: 242
Views: 27758

Re: Index Funds Bubble? [Michael Burry article]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ih7bWOSwECU This interview with Steven Bregman popped up on my Youtube list this week, and it seems like it fills out more of the background behind Burry's claim. One interesting takeaway for me is that index weighting isn't as straightforward as I previously believe...
by JoMoney
Sun Nov 10, 2019 10:08 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What is this sound in the house?
Replies: 28
Views: 3182

Re: What is this sound in the house?

Ghosts. I'm leaning towards rodents, but if one is persuaded that the noise has a quality that haunts them with the spirit or story of something else, then that explanation may be a better description... just be sure that any rituals to remove the ghost involve sprinkling of rat poison to be effect...
by JoMoney
Sun Nov 10, 2019 9:56 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Ira allocation
Replies: 4
Views: 199

Re: Ira allocation

It sounds like you've "won the game" and have a plan that you're comfortable with and is working for you. The beneficiaries of what you leave behind can change to an allocation that suits them after it belongs to them. I would not jeopardize my own well being and comfort sleeping at night through ma...
by JoMoney
Sun Nov 10, 2019 9:41 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Advantages for US persons abroad
Replies: 37
Views: 2629

Re: Advantages for US persons abroad

I'm not sure about avoiding state income tax. You would have to establish residence in a no tax state first and then sever all ties with the state you left. Some states are very aggressive in collecting from non residents. For some reason many people believe this notion that you have to establish r...
by JoMoney
Sun Nov 10, 2019 9:30 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Move 401k to brokerage account?
Replies: 13
Views: 769

Re: Move 401k to brokerage account?

401k's can have a lot of unique variables. You'll have to review the documents of your plan to see what sort of fees and limitations there are. Personally, I'm not a fan of tinkering and "rebalancing" a portfolio. While some amount of risk control is called for in keeping your stock/bond allocation ...
by JoMoney
Sat Nov 09, 2019 10:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If you were forced to pick an alternative asset...
Replies: 97
Views: 5502

Re: If you were forced to pick an alternative asset...

Something that "can't hold in a brokerage account"? No real estate unless it's "exotic"? I guess that means a personal residence is out :? No hobbies... so no collectibles like numismatic coins or art, and from your comment about beer no fine wines collecting :annoyed <groan> Not much I would want t...
by JoMoney
Sat Nov 09, 2019 7:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shiller PE10 data not being updated?
Replies: 13
Views: 1192

Re: Shiller PE10 data not being updated?

Earnings only come out quarterly, so you're not missing much. S&P puts out a spreadsheet with the most recent data (but they don't calculate the PE10 or inflation for you). https://us.spindices.com/documents/additional-material/sp-500-eps-est.xlsx The Shiller data is most useful for the really old d...
by JoMoney
Sat Nov 09, 2019 1:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Morningstar percentile rank - VTSAX, VBAIX, VIIIX etc
Replies: 20
Views: 1146

Re: Morningstar percentile rank - VTSAX, VBAIX, VIIIX etc

https://admainnew.morningstar.com/webhelp/glossary_definitions/mutual_fund/mfglossary_PercentileRankCategory.html Total Return Percentile Rank, Morningstar Category Percentile rank is a standardized way of ranking items within a peer group, in this case, funds with the same Morningstar category. Th...
by JoMoney
Sat Nov 09, 2019 12:48 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Spend It All vs. Leave $$ for the Kids
Replies: 152
Views: 11319

Re: Spend It All vs. Leave $$ for the Kids

I don't see making sure you "spend it all" or making sure you leave a big estate as worthy goals.
Finding the correct balance doesn't always make for a simple answer, but with most things, the extreme on either side is usually wrong.
by JoMoney
Sat Nov 09, 2019 12:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bank of America declares 'the end of the 60-40' standard portfolio
Replies: 88
Views: 15093

Re: Bank of America declares 'the end of the 60-40' standard portfolio

On the topic of 60/40, I was playing around with BlackRock's capital market expectations tool https://www.blackrock.com/institutions/en-us/insights/charts/capital-market-assumptions ... I thought it was interesting to note, that the low-end estimate for a "Global 60/40" portfolio's expected return w...
by JoMoney
Sat Nov 09, 2019 12:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Morningstar percentile rank - VTSAX, VBAIX, VIIIX etc
Replies: 20
Views: 1146

Re: Morningstar percentile rank - VTSAX, VBAIX, VIIIX etc

Something else to note, beyond just the annual ranking, is the consistency of the 'above average' ranking over time. It adds up to a longer-term top ranking that isn't as apparent when looking at it year to year. The SPIVA Scorecard shows the S&P outperformed 64.49% of all Large-Cap funds in 2018, a...
by JoMoney
Sat Nov 09, 2019 11:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Morningstar percentile rank - VTSAX, VBAIX, VIIIX etc
Replies: 20
Views: 1146

Re: Morningstar percentile rank - VTSAX, VBAIX, VIIIX etc

F150HD wrote:
Sat Nov 09, 2019 11:26 am
...I have access to VIIIX in tax deferred and currently use it, though it seems to be lingering around the bottom quartile the past X years...
I think you're misreading it.
It's been in the TOP quartile the past several years... look at the little shaded picture in the "Quartile Rank" line.
by JoMoney
Sat Nov 09, 2019 8:47 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: S&P500 52 week high, Hold, DCA, or Invest lump sums
Replies: 13
Views: 995

Re: S&P500 52 week high, Hold, DCA, or Invest lump sums

Perhaps you need a balanced portfolio that includes some cash/bonds that you will "rebalance" with, and has an effect similar to dollar cost averaging. If you're going to have a heavy stock portfolio, you will have to be comfortable with bearing the risk of having that money in stocks at some point,...
by JoMoney
Fri Nov 08, 2019 12:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cliff Asness: It’s Time For A Venial Value-Timing Sin
Replies: 19
Views: 1854

Re: Cliff Asness: It’s Time For A Venial Value-Timing Sin

I guess I can agree with him that interest rates are not something expected to be able to "time" your trading on.
... and continue to disagree with factor investors that the historical "value factor" is not something to expect to garner higher returns from.
by JoMoney
Fri Nov 08, 2019 11:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Theoretical Portfolio Idea: proportional to AUM of each Vanguard Fund
Replies: 8
Views: 463

Re: Theoretical Portfolio Idea: proportional to AUM of each Vanguard Fund

I think you should develop a "hypothesis" about what the results of such a portfolio would be, then you can test your "theory" for using such a seemingly odd portfolio... and you should be willing to do the work looking into it yourself (rather than trying to get someone on the Internet to do it for...
by JoMoney
Fri Nov 08, 2019 11:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cliff Asness: It’s Time For A Venial Value-Timing Sin
Replies: 19
Views: 1854

Re: Cliff Asness: It’s Time For A Venial Value-Timing Sin

Perhaps I'm mistaken, but it makes sense to me that in the current environment Growth/Value multiples would have a wider spread. When interest rates are lower/flat, a "growth" company that has higher Return On Equity and is able to reinvest its earnings and grow it's owners book-value at a higher ra...
by JoMoney
Thu Nov 07, 2019 9:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cliff Asness: It’s Time For A Venial Value-Timing Sin
Replies: 19
Views: 1854

Re: Cliff Asness: It’s Time For A Venial Value-Timing Sin

Maybe. It certainly looks to have a larger spread these days. It also looks like interest rates should be rising, but the extremely low/negative interest rate environment has gone on longer than most expected too. If you consider the idea that dividends have a relationship to value stocks, and divid...
by JoMoney
Thu Nov 07, 2019 9:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 1895
Views: 196988

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

So what is the S&P 500 up so far this year? I calculated that the SPY ETF is up 22.7% and with dividends that's probably over 24% so far for the year. Not bad. Plus, it looks like the market is set to asplode again today. "Asplode"?? :confused If it made " your head asplode " it had the intended af...
by JoMoney
Thu Nov 07, 2019 9:08 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How common is ACH fraud on checking accounts?
Replies: 55
Views: 10244

Re: How common is ACH fraud on checking accounts?

Never had any experiences with fraudulent or mistaken ACH transfers, but have had, and heard lots of anecdotal stories, about fraud from stolen credit card numbers and some unfortunate stories of the problems caused when those "credit" card numbers are "debit cards" tied to someones checking account.
by JoMoney
Thu Nov 07, 2019 9:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: ZERO Commission Impact ?
Replies: 3
Views: 434

Re: ZERO Commission Impact ?

Don't forget Vanguard, at least as far as zero commission to trade most ETFs goes. https://investor.vanguard.com/etf/commission-free-etfs As far as the impact... not sure yet. I remember when ultra-low cost Internet brokers came about in the late 1990's it coincided with the growth of lots of indivi...
by JoMoney
Wed Nov 06, 2019 9:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When DID the stock market recover from 1929?
Replies: 51
Views: 4803

Re: When DID the stock market recover from 1929?

I know DCA is generally frowned upon around here, but consider this, by the end of 1935, someone that had been making regular contributions over the decade ending in 1935 earned: 5.9% annualized on their contributions from the beginning of 1926 5.2% annualized on their contributions from the beginni...
by JoMoney
Wed Nov 06, 2019 8:17 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 72t withdrawals and new contributions
Replies: 15
Views: 855

Re: 72t withdrawals and new contributions

You can withdraw your contributions (but not the earnings) from a Roth at any age without penalty. Amounts converted from a traditional to a Roth can be withdrawn after 5 years (just not the earnings). The idea of the "roth conversion ladder" is to simply convert the amount you'll need to withdraw 5...
by JoMoney
Wed Nov 06, 2019 9:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tax Disadvantage of Index Funds
Replies: 10
Views: 1017

Re: Tax Disadvantage of Index Funds

... while dividends paid by index funds are non-qualified and taxed at a top rate of 37% (or more)... What am I missing? My index fund paid out 100% qualified dividends last year, and that's the norm. It even includes a small portion of REITs and stocks that would not normally be considered "qualif...
by JoMoney
Wed Nov 06, 2019 8:49 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Is the new McDonald's CEO a boglehead?
Replies: 3
Views: 985

Re: Is the new McDonald's CEO a boglehead?

I would want the CEO of a company to have a substantial portion of their future wealth tied to that of the company.
...Besides "eggs in a basket" is kind of a thing McDonalds specializes in
Image
by JoMoney
Wed Nov 06, 2019 12:25 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Will we be OK at 3% WR?
Replies: 275
Views: 17705

Re: Will we be OK at 3% WR?

I just ran a quick quote on https://www.immediateannuities.com for a SPIA A 54yo male and 52yo female can buy an immediate annuity that pays the equivalent of 4.5% of the purchase price annually for the remainder of their joint life. I'm not saying you or anyone should buy a SPIA, but the fact that ...
by JoMoney
Tue Nov 05, 2019 9:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Modeling Bitcoin Value with Scarcity
Replies: 13
Views: 1063

Re: Modeling Bitcoin Value with Scarcity

I know dollars are required to pay taxes, and will be needed to repay ever larger social debts created by borrowing dollars. At least with gold and silver I would get a shiny rock to look at, maybe even fashioned into some wearable jewelry or a coin with numismatic collectible qualities. I still hav...
by JoMoney
Tue Nov 05, 2019 9:20 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Stinky Front Loader (Washer)
Replies: 39
Views: 2289

Re: Stinky Front Loader (Washer)

https://www.concrobium.com/how-to-fight-mold/where-is-your-mold/laundry-room/ Front End Loading Washer Front-end loading washing machines sometimes develop mold on the rubber gaskets between the drum and the door, resulting in a damp, earthy smell. Try spraying Concrobium Mold Control onto the surf...
by JoMoney
Tue Nov 05, 2019 8:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividend investing vs. index investing
Replies: 30
Views: 2171

Re: Dividend investing vs. index investing

Using dividends as a selection signal for stock picking isn't the worst strategy, but it tends to put people into portfolios that could otherwise be more diversified and have less active turn over. I could list countless dividend focused mutual funds, with decades of history, and performance that wa...
by JoMoney
Mon Nov 04, 2019 7:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Modeling Bitcoin Value with Scarcity
Replies: 13
Views: 1063

Re: Modeling Bitcoin Value with Scarcity

I have no idea how big it will get before it collapses... but regardless, less money will come out of Bitcoin then people exchanged into it.
by JoMoney
Mon Nov 04, 2019 7:10 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: After tax 401k contributions
Replies: 13
Views: 792

Re: After tax 401k contributions

Yes, there are still advantages to putting after-tax money into 401k -You could potentially roll-over the after-tax contributions to a Roth after you leave the current employer. -Money in a 401k has strong protections from judgments. -Some assets like bonds and REITs don't have "qualified dividends"...
by JoMoney
Mon Nov 04, 2019 11:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Article on Dividends (J Clements)
Replies: 29
Views: 3033

Re: Article on Dividends (J Clements)

Yes, valuation matters, but if you don't expect the value to go up you really shouldn't be buying/holding the company or stock portfolio in the first place.
by JoMoney
Mon Nov 04, 2019 9:49 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How much money is really needed in retirement?
Replies: 74
Views: 9127

Re: How much money is really needed in retirement?

Yes, you can cut your expenses if you have to. Some people get by on social security alone, but you don't have many other options when you get old. By the time you're of age to collect SS, it will be difficult to find work even if you were willing and able to get a job. A barely getting by standard...
by JoMoney
Mon Nov 04, 2019 9:30 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How much money is really needed in retirement?
Replies: 74
Views: 9127

Re: How much money is really needed in retirement?

Yes, you can cut your expenses if you have to. Some people get by on social security alone, but you don't have many other options when you get old. By the time you're of age to collect SS, it will be difficult to find work even if you were willing and able to get a job. A barely getting by standard ...
by JoMoney
Sun Nov 03, 2019 10:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When DID the stock market recover from 1929?
Replies: 51
Views: 4803

Re: When DID the stock market recover from 1929?

Just curious what stocks you would have invested $10k in in 1929. Without the existence of mutual funds, how are you approximating “buying the entire market” as a boglehead would do? Is this cap weighted relative to 1929? -TheDDC Mutual funds existed. In fact, the beloved Vanguard Wellington fund g...
by JoMoney
Sun Nov 03, 2019 9:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When DID the stock market recover from 1929?
Replies: 51
Views: 4803

Re: When DID the stock market recover from 1929?

In inflation (deflation) adjusted terms, $10,000 growth from 08/31/1929 to

05/31/1932 = $2,307.03

08/31/1936 = $10,053.70

02/28/1937 = $11,515.39
by JoMoney
Sun Nov 03, 2019 9:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When DID the stock market recover from 1929?
Replies: 51
Views: 4803

Re: When DID the stock market recover from 1929?

$10,000 growth starting 8/31/1929

05/31/1932 = $1,834.02

02/28/1937 = $9,421.70

06/30/1944 = $10,416.51
by JoMoney
Sun Nov 03, 2019 12:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Article on Dividends (J Clements)
Replies: 29
Views: 3033

Re: Article on Dividends (J Clements)

FTSE All World vs FTSE All World "High Dividend" https://i.postimg.cc/Zq08ZZk4/World.png These things wax and wane over time, but I don't see any extra value being returned based on dividends. Vanguard's Equity Income fund (a conservative dividend focused active fund) vs. Vanguard 500 Fund https://...
by JoMoney
Sun Nov 03, 2019 11:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How do you reconcile these two opposing views
Replies: 42
Views: 3660

Re: How do you reconcile these two opposing views

Dr. Bernstein is an investment adviser, he sells books and offers his professional advice. He offers both perspectives of simply taking the broad averages and sticking to it (guaranteeing your fair share of whatever the average returns are), and advice for those who want to play the tactical game on...
by JoMoney
Sun Nov 03, 2019 10:36 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Car rental insurance experiences
Replies: 31
Views: 2792

Re: Car rental insurance experiences

I used to get the rental counter insurance pitch constantly, I got in a habit of just saying " No. The credit card insurance covers the car, and my personal insurance covers me ", and I never get any further push-back, at most they ask who I'm insured with. I have had to buy the insurance once thoug...
by JoMoney
Sun Nov 03, 2019 9:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How do you reconcile these two opposing views
Replies: 42
Views: 3660

Re: How do you reconcile these two opposing views

Yes, you will see these sort of contradictory statements often among money managers who supposedly believe in the "Efficient Market Hypothesis" . As far as your examples go, I don't see a conflict with the statement: "beware. Sooner or later, we’re going to have an inflationary crisis, and in such a...
by JoMoney
Sat Nov 02, 2019 11:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 1895
Views: 196988

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

oldzey wrote:
Sat Nov 02, 2019 10:43 pm
U.S. stocks, please continue to soar!

Thank you!
...
Nice image :beer
🇺🇸 Strength Opportunity Aspiration Results 🇺🇸
by JoMoney
Sat Nov 02, 2019 10:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How do you reconcile these two opposing views
Replies: 42
Views: 3660

Re: How do you reconcile these two opposing views

I believe the market is difficult to beat, impossibly so in aggregate (we can't all be above average). I believe there are some who are able to garner something extra through skill, unique information, etc... I know there are others who try to exploit behavioral weaknesses, marketing risky securitie...