Search found 384 matches

by grog
Thu Jan 03, 2019 4:20 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Recent Engineering College Graduate can’t get job interviews, needs advice
Replies: 145
Views: 11621

Re: Recent Engineering College Graduate can’t get job interviews, needs advice

Finally - (and it's a bit off topic) make sure he practices behavioral interview questions. They're difficult if you haven't prepared, and I didn't know to expect those sorts of questions when I was looking for my first job. Yes! These are very common especially in the early stages with HR people. ...
by grog
Thu Jan 03, 2019 4:13 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Recent Engineering College Graduate can’t get job interviews, needs advice
Replies: 145
Views: 11621

Re: Recent Engineering College Graduate can’t get job interviews, needs advice

Is it true hiring companies these days use programs to scan GPA and anything low is automatically rejected without a human ever looking at it? Yes. 3.0 is a pretty common cutoff. One thing that helps tremendously is to get a contact of some kind in a company (even an indirect one like friend of you...
by grog
Sat Dec 15, 2018 3:12 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How to learn a second language
Replies: 128
Views: 15848

Re: How to learn a second language

As an academic subject, I would rate foreign language learning (even the easiest languages) as quite difficult, probably behind only advanced mathematics and physical sciences. (Note that many foreign language courses are easy, but that is because the standards are low, i.e., they don't require you ...
by grog
Fri Dec 14, 2018 4:31 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: S&P 500 Down 11.2% Since September 20
Replies: 8
Views: 1266

Re: S&P 500 Down 11.2% Since September 20

That's from the peak. Year-to-date it's not down much. To me, this doesn't feel like a bear market. Recession has a technical definition based on macroeconomics, not the stock market. It refers to two straight quarters of negative economic growth. Economic growth has been running around 3.5%-4.0% wh...
by grog
Fri Dec 14, 2018 11:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio Discussion (Cont'd)
Replies: 736
Views: 169184

Re: Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio Discussion (Cont'd)

Historically, cash held as 3 month T-bills has been one of the strongest inflation hedges available to investors over the short-term. TIPS held to maturity are certainly the best today, although they obviously require a longer duration. I think that if I were to employ the PP, I would probably swap...
by grog
Thu Dec 13, 2018 12:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VMVFX (Global Minimum Volatility) as core equity holding. Your opinion?
Replies: 154
Views: 12053

Re: VMVFX (Global Minimum Volatility) as core equity holding. Your opinion?

One of the problems with lower volatility strategies could be that the equities that exhibited low volatility may not remain so as economic conditions change, and/or new money inflows cause valuations to rise. Here are two articles I found making case against them, first one talk about minimum vola...
by grog
Wed Dec 12, 2018 4:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VMVFX (Global Minimum Volatility) as core equity holding. Your opinion?
Replies: 154
Views: 12053

Re: VMVFX (Global Minimum Volatility) as core equity holding. Your opinion?

The concept of a "Bet Against Beta" factor implies that owning more of a low-volatility fund ought to out-perform at the same level of risk. The short explanation is that a lot of investors are unwilling or unable to use leverage, so they have to overbid on high risk / high reward assets in order t...
by grog
Wed Dec 12, 2018 10:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VMVFX (Global Minimum Volatility) as core equity holding. Your opinion?
Replies: 154
Views: 12053

Re: VMVFX (Global Minimum Volatility) as core equity holding. Your opinion?

Cons/Things I'm not sure: 1) Even though I like the label "Minimum Volatility". This is still a young fund without much record in certain market conditions. How much the max downdraw would be in a market like 2008-09? Based on the link below, most global min vol indexes were (would have been?) down...
by grog
Thu Dec 06, 2018 10:25 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Global Wellesley
Replies: 8
Views: 1473

Re: Vanguard Global Wellesley

It's managed by the Wellington Management Company. And at a glance it definitely follows the style of classic Wellesley. It's income focused and the asset allocation is around 40/60 with a large cap value strategy. For the international exposure, looks like they are sticking to wealthy industrialize...
by grog
Thu Dec 06, 2018 9:58 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 20M Inheritance - What is best option for small/no risk on principal?
Replies: 93
Views: 12372

Re: 20M Inheritance - What is best option for small/no risk on principal?

There are different ways to look at "risk" in this context. Short-term fixed income is "safe" if you are most concerned with preservation of nominal principal and low volatility. But it's arguably risky in terms of maintaining and growing wealth, especially over the long-term. Personally I would fee...
by grog
Wed Dec 05, 2018 11:49 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Why Is Insurance Worth It (Analytically)?
Replies: 89
Views: 4531

Re: Why Is Insurance Worth It (Analytically)?

Yes, at least more so. You have created a larger pool. You have essentially described the basic process of creating a mutual insurance company (ie. Liberty/Amica, etc). Of course insurance companies also take care of things like writing up forms and contracts, processing and adjudicating claims, et...
by grog
Wed Dec 05, 2018 12:15 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Why Is Insurance Worth It (Analytically)?
Replies: 89
Views: 4531

Re: Why Is Insurance Worth It (Analytically)?

pdavi21 wrote:
Tue Dec 04, 2018 11:43 pm
What if all my relatives and myself forego insurance and save the premiums as additional contributions into our Asset Allocations with the understanding that we can loan money to each other? Is it functionally similar to insurance then?
And you're worried about the insurance company defaulting?
by grog
Tue Dec 04, 2018 6:23 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Why Is Insurance Worth It (Analytically)?
Replies: 89
Views: 4531

Re: Why Is Insurance Worth It (Analytically)?

I don't see what I am missing. Why do people have such a strong belief to promote a product with a statistically negative return (and negative risk) that isn't even 100% reliable on paying out in the event of a claim anyway? You are only considering the first moment, not the second and higher momen...
by grog
Wed Nov 14, 2018 1:10 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Northwestern Mutual nightmare - help needed
Replies: 55
Views: 5551

Re: Northwestern Mutual nightmare - help needed

General rule with transfers, it's better to work with the company you're transferring funds to. The new brokerage that will be receiving new funds will be more than happy to help you with all that. Money market is just cash. That won't have any taxable gains, so it shouldn't be a big deal. With the ...
by grog
Wed Oct 31, 2018 4:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is market cap weighting a dumb idea?
Replies: 64
Views: 3306

Re: Is market cap weighting a dumb idea?

Please read Bogle's arguments for a cap-weighted portfolio. He employs very elegant reasoning for advocating that particular portfolio, and it has fared well in practice. It's quite a leap from the data presented here to the generalization about the market cap portfolio. It's looks to me like the S&...
by grog
Tue Oct 30, 2018 2:43 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Ancestry DNA changed my background
Replies: 32
Views: 4540

Re: Ancestry DNA changed my background

It's all really a farce, as it's impossible to identify anybody's "true" ancestry as being x y and z percentage of this and that nationalities. Suppose one branch of your ancestors was in the Mesopotamian area during the Stone Age, traveled to the Caspian area around the time of Christ, to the Germ...
by grog
Thu Oct 11, 2018 5:15 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Anyone here major in Economics in college?
Replies: 92
Views: 7663

Re: Anyone here major in Economics in college?

I went to big state U and minored in Econ (majored in Poli Sci, went to law school). If I recall correctly, my school offered both hard econ and easy econ -- both will get you a degree in Econ, but different degrees. Hard econ = BS in Econ, requires lots of math, calculus, etc. Easy Econ = BA in Ec...
by grog
Thu Oct 11, 2018 4:38 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Anyone here major in Economics in college?
Replies: 92
Views: 7663

Re: Anyone here major in Economics in college?

My good friend at UT austin majored in economics. My friends in finance at Mccombs school of business looked down upon that major. Worked for DFA in Austin for 2 years and did the CFA. He is now doing energy investment banking and doing quite well I am sure. In universities that have both an underg...
by grog
Thu Oct 11, 2018 1:38 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Anyone here major in Economics in college?
Replies: 92
Views: 7663

Re: Anyone here major in Economics in college?

I did, but I would not recommend it. It's not a bad major but I think something like accounting would be more useful. You can take principles of micro and macro and get 90% of what you'd get out of an economics major. Diminishing marginal utility of econ classes. If the program has calculus-based p...
by grog
Tue Jul 31, 2018 2:33 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Any Boglehead powerlifters?
Replies: 115
Views: 9228

Re: Any Boglehead powerlifters?

I'm hardly a powerlifter but I do some barbell lifts and I've read the Starting Strength book. My favorite lift by far is the overhead press. The best I've done is 110 lb for 5 reps. I would like to get up to 135. I don't bench very often currently. I try to squat at least once a week. I like to do ...
by grog
Fri Jul 13, 2018 2:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: COMING SOON: BOGLEHEADS PODCASTS
Replies: 367
Views: 21941

Re: COMING SOON: BOGLEHEADS PODCASTS

-Bogleheads Radio. Ignore the noise no longer.

-Bogleheads No-Load Radio

-Bogleheads Cap-Weighted Radio

-Bankin' Dat Scrilla with Bogleheads

-Bogleheads Guide to Crypto-Currencies

-Bogleheads Podcast, Brought to you by Edward Jones
by grog
Tue Jun 19, 2018 11:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What does it mean: Rule No. 1: Never lose money
Replies: 75
Views: 7718

Re: What does it mean: Rule No. 1: Never lose money

I lost money once. If only I had known about this rule.
by grog
Fri Jun 15, 2018 4:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Bogleheads smarter than the bond market?
Replies: 40
Views: 4838

Re: Are Bogleheads smarter than the bond market?

Not just recently. This conversation has been going on for at least 10 years. Maybe 15. Dr. Bernstein is right about the risk of anything but shorter term bonds. But he's been wrong about the market. So far. He says "keep your safe money safe" and "take your risk on the equity side", no on the bond...
by grog
Wed Jun 13, 2018 9:46 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Forbes: Millennials Aren't Having Kids Heres Why That's a Problem for Baby Boomer Real Estate and Retirement
Replies: 74
Views: 7896

Re: Forbes: Millennials Aren't Having Kids Heres Why That's a Problem for Baby Boomer Real Estate and Retirement

Daycare costs, student loans, housing costs relative to salaries, and baby boomers’ decisions to “kick the can down the road” are the main reasons why millennials aren’t having as many kids as boomers did. Yeah, I think a lot of the alleged millennial "preferences" are not so much preferences as ba...
by grog
Mon Jun 04, 2018 1:45 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What is your Take Home Pay / Gross Pay ratio?
Replies: 89
Views: 8639

Re: What is your Take Home Pay / Gross Pay ratio?

Currently 58%. Taxes and 401K are the big items. Then there's HSA and insurance which are relatively small. It fluctuates throughout the year with my 401K percentage.

I remember when I started out and I was just contributing up to match it was like 71% and I thought that was highway robbery.
by grog
Mon Feb 05, 2018 4:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 11695
Views: 2013597

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Users browsing this forum: huge list and 569 guests
by grog
Mon Feb 05, 2018 3:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 11695
Views: 2013597

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

The bloodbath continues
by grog
Sat Jan 27, 2018 9:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do Alpha Males Deliver Alpha? Testosterone and Hedge Funds
Replies: 16
Views: 1840

Re: Do Alpha Males Deliver Alpha? Testosterone and Hedge Funds

nisiprius wrote:
Sat Jan 27, 2018 7:20 am
wootwoot wrote:
Sat Jan 27, 2018 12:30 am
I prefer to invest my money with beta male hedge fund managers...
...smart beta...
What you do is have an alpha male as the face of the operation but you have the smart betas actually running everything in the back room.
by grog
Fri Jan 26, 2018 6:29 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Warning on "free" Morningstar trial
Replies: 37
Views: 9230

Re: Warning on "free" Morningstar trial

Definitely double check your credit card statement. I called to cancel the day before the end of the two weeks. They offered me a discount. I declined. Assumed they actually canceled it. Then I noticed I still had access to the prime service. I was confused by this and checked my CC statement and, s...
by grog
Fri Jan 26, 2018 6:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do Alpha Males Deliver Alpha? Testosterone and Hedge Funds
Replies: 16
Views: 1840

Do Alpha Males Deliver Alpha? Testosterone and Hedge Funds

From the hallowed halls of academia, new research about hedge fund performance. Abstract Using facial width-to-height ratio (fWHR) as a proxy for pubertal testosterone, we show that high-testosterone hedge fund managers significantly underperform low-testosterone hedge fund managers after adjusting ...
by grog
Fri Jan 26, 2018 1:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do low-volatility stocks behave better in a bear market?
Replies: 8
Views: 1282

Re: Do low-volatility stocks behave better in a bear market?

Defensive stocks have historically performed quite well. If you look at the Vanguard sector funds, the three defensive sectors (consumer staples, utilities, health care) have all returned more than TSM since inception (2005) and of course with lower volatility and drawdowns. And as I understand it, ...
by grog
Thu Jan 25, 2018 2:53 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 50% of my portfolio in FANG - 15% in NVDA
Replies: 64
Views: 8449

Re: 50% of my portfolio in FANG - 15% in NVDA

The point again is it doesn't matter if you invested some money in a stock like Amazon, in order to make it matter you have to bet very large amounts and risk going broke. I would disagree with that. A relatively small amount of money in an investment that does very well will matter greatly, given ...
by grog
Tue Jan 23, 2018 10:29 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: ETF Equivalent to Mutual Funds
Replies: 9
Views: 1001

Re: ETF Equivalent to Mutual Funds

If you're at Fidelity, you probably want to look at the Blackrock iShares lineup. The commission-free listing at Fidelity should cover everything you need.

https://www.fidelity.com/etfs/ishares
by grog
Thu Jan 18, 2018 8:13 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Are ETFs Really That Safe?
Replies: 29
Views: 4297

Re: Are ETFs Really That Safe?

Mr Bogle has no objection to buying and holding something like VTI. His criticisms are primarily 1) that they can be traded frequently, 2) the explosion of a lot of very narrow ETFs. He thinks those are marketing hype and won’t be around long. A robotics ETF is exactly the kind of thing he would dis...
by grog
Tue Jan 16, 2018 3:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: GE and the myth of "safe blue-chip stocks"
Replies: 140
Views: 22691

Re: GE and the myth of "safe blue-chip stocks"

I find the idea of "blue chip" companies to be a somewhat useful concept as long as you realize that they are "safe" only relative to other stocks and recognize that they still carry uncompensated diversifiable risk. Certain funds like VIG (Vanguard Dividend Appreciation) have diversified exposure t...
by grog
Tue Jan 16, 2018 12:59 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: I'm hooked
Replies: 22
Views: 4530

Re: I'm hooked

I was always a saver, but before I found this site not even five years ago I had little practical knowledge and was mostly saving money in the bank at minimal interest. In my 401K, had I continued contributing just up to the match as I had been doing, I would have missed out on about 25K in gains in...
by grog
Sat Jan 13, 2018 4:35 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Getting out of Whole Life Insurance
Replies: 15
Views: 2298

Re: Getting out of Whole Life Insurance

I would call and get an illustration and figure out exactly what your options are. You are currently 190k in the hole. Will this number get better or worse in the next few years (under various options)? And how does that compare to alternative investments? MEC status isn’t ideal, but neither is payi...
by grog
Fri Jan 12, 2018 4:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Robo-Investors driving the market to insane levels?
Replies: 36
Views: 5912

Re: Are Robo-Investors driving the market to insane levels?

The S&P 500 returned 21% in 2017. Just to put the recent "insane" run-up in perspective, this also occurred in 2013 2009 2003 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 1991 1989 1985 1983 1982 1980 ... If you'd invested a lump sum on Jan 1, 1980, you would've multiplied your money by 4.5x by the the end of the decad...
by grog
Fri Jan 12, 2018 3:21 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How do credit card companies determine how much credit to give you?
Replies: 5
Views: 1030

Re: How do credit card companies determine how much credit to give you?

I'm not an insider and I don't know their formulas, but whenever I've applied or asked for increases, they've asked me 1) my income, 2) my mortgage or rent payment. It seems like they combine this with credit report info. I have heard they look at credit utilization metric, so presumably they are aw...
by grog
Tue Jan 09, 2018 10:33 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Why not put part of your Efund into total market ETF?
Replies: 14
Views: 1234

Re: Why not put part of your Efund into total market ETF?

When there's a crash, there are a lot more sellers than buyers and prices plummet for the markets to clear. Prices can fall quickly. In the '87 crash, prices fell over 20% in one day. Someone has to be left holding the bag and you will not be the one with the advantage.
by grog
Tue Jan 09, 2018 10:02 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Why not put part of your Efund into total market ETF?
Replies: 14
Views: 1234

Re: Why not put part of your Efund into total market ETF?

You can shift money from cash into stocks if you're comfortable with risk, but it really ceases to be an emergency fund at that point. Also, don't fool yourself with low volatility strategies. They are only "low" compared to overall equity markets, but still far riskier than cash. The MSCI Min Vol I...
by grog
Mon Jan 08, 2018 6:18 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Question about Taxable Accounts
Replies: 1
Views: 469

Re: Question about Taxable Accounts

I started a brokerage account last year. To get started, I would suggest 1) Learn about how fund distributions get taxed. Qualified vs. unqualified dividends, capital gains distributions, and so forth. 2) Look into the difference between mutual funds and ETFs and decide which you find more appealing...
by grog
Sun Jan 07, 2018 5:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Patience And Diversification Crucial
Replies: 51
Views: 8433

Re: Larry Swedroe: Patience And Diversification Crucial

The market write large contains all the risk factors in a way but they cancel each other out. What we are trying to do is own the factors that are distinct, have positive expected returns and get the benefit of diversifying across them. Why would you want to own risk factors with negative expected ...
by grog
Sun Jan 07, 2018 1:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Morningstar Premium for $99
Replies: 39
Views: 10404

Re: Morningstar Premium for $99

You can use Xray and Chart any fund for free, what do you get beyond that? That's all I ever really needed. I was always curious what else there is, but never signed up for a free trial. I did the trial recently. You can get that xray stuff for a specific fund for free but premium let's you do it a...
by grog
Sat Jan 06, 2018 10:42 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Anyone tired of the stock market going up?
Replies: 368
Views: 43388

Re: Anyone tired of the stock market going up?

The regular ol' P/E has been driven up to 24 or so. Hard to be thrilled about that. One thing Jack stresses is that stock returns ultimately derive from the earnings. He has said he expects fairly low returns given the corporate earnings growth we've seen coupled with the headwind of a high P/E. On ...
by grog
Sat Jan 06, 2018 5:05 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Anyone tired of the stock market going up?
Replies: 368
Views: 43388

Re: Anyone tired of the stock market going up?

I feel like the lack of volatility is lulling investors into believing that the stock market is "safe". The next correction is going to surprise some folks. It has been a bizarrely steady climb ever since the presidential election. Not much news aside from the tax bill, yet the market just marches ...
by grog
Sat Jan 06, 2018 11:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does the S&P 500 Grow Faster Than the Economy?
Replies: 31
Views: 3984

Re: Does the S&P 500 Grow Faster Than the Economy?

Wasn’t this basically Picketty’s thesis in Capital in the 21st Century? I think the idea was that the return on capital tends to be greater than underlying growth and this tends to naturally concentrate wealth over time with things getting reset periodically with economic crises and wars and such.
by grog
Sat Jan 06, 2018 9:59 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Thoughts on VTWV for small cap value (Paul Merriman)
Replies: 22
Views: 4448

Re: Thoughts on VTWV for small cap value (Paul Merriman)

Some people say CRSP is not pure enough small-cap. You might prefer S&P if that’s a concern. In practice, those have had comparable performance. Russell 2000 just isn’t popular since it hasn’t done as well and this is generally attributed to flaws in the index methodology. Regardless I would probabl...
by grog
Fri Jan 05, 2018 11:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small cap value vs. total market?
Replies: 105
Views: 19321

Re: Small cap value vs. total market?

But you wouldn’t sub SCV and TSM one for one, would you? Shouldn’t the comparison be between TSM and SCV diluted with fixed income/cash? Does SCV give you, if not a free lunch, the claimed free dessert? Not really a free anything, I would say. SCV gives you greater expected return in exchange for t...
by grog
Fri Jan 05, 2018 9:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Patience And Diversification Crucial
Replies: 51
Views: 8433

Re: Larry Swedroe: Patience And Diversification Crucial

Some historical perspective in order. When Fama and French first described the small and value factors, factor investing seemed simple. Just load up on small cap weight stocks with low book to market values and the magic happened. Few if any SCV funds these days do that. SCV funds now screen out th...