Search found 362 matches

by grog
Fri Jun 15, 2018 4:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Bogleheads smarter than the bond market?
Replies: 36
Views: 3302

Re: Are Bogleheads smarter than the bond market?

Not just recently. This conversation has been going on for at least 10 years. Maybe 15. Dr. Bernstein is right about the risk of anything but shorter term bonds. But he's been wrong about the market. So far. He says "keep your safe money safe" and "take your risk on the equity side", no on the bond...
by grog
Wed Jun 13, 2018 9:46 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Forbes: Millennials Aren't Having Kids Heres Why That's a Problem for Baby Boomer Real Estate and Retirement
Replies: 74
Views: 6923

Re: Forbes: Millennials Aren't Having Kids Heres Why That's a Problem for Baby Boomer Real Estate and Retirement

Daycare costs, student loans, housing costs relative to salaries, and baby boomers’ decisions to “kick the can down the road” are the main reasons why millennials aren’t having as many kids as boomers did. Yeah, I think a lot of the alleged millennial "preferences" are not so much preferences as ba...
by grog
Mon Jun 04, 2018 1:45 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What is your Take Home Pay / Gross Pay ratio?
Replies: 75
Views: 5632

Re: What is your Take Home Pay / Gross Pay ratio?

Currently 58%. Taxes and 401K are the big items. Then there's HSA and insurance which are relatively small. It fluctuates throughout the year with my 401K percentage.

I remember when I started out and I was just contributing up to match it was like 71% and I thought that was highway robbery.
by grog
Mon Feb 05, 2018 4:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 6593
Views: 1429928

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Users browsing this forum: huge list and 569 guests
by grog
Mon Feb 05, 2018 3:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 6593
Views: 1429928

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

The bloodbath continues
by grog
Sat Jan 27, 2018 9:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do Alpha Males Deliver Alpha? Testosterone and Hedge Funds
Replies: 16
Views: 1516

Re: Do Alpha Males Deliver Alpha? Testosterone and Hedge Funds

nisiprius wrote:
Sat Jan 27, 2018 7:20 am
wootwoot wrote:
Sat Jan 27, 2018 12:30 am
I prefer to invest my money with beta male hedge fund managers...
...smart beta...
What you do is have an alpha male as the face of the operation but you have the smart betas actually running everything in the back room.
by grog
Fri Jan 26, 2018 6:29 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Warning on "free" Morningstar trial
Replies: 37
Views: 7569

Re: Warning on "free" Morningstar trial

Definitely double check your credit card statement. I called to cancel the day before the end of the two weeks. They offered me a discount. I declined. Assumed they actually canceled it. Then I noticed I still had access to the prime service. I was confused by this and checked my CC statement and, s...
by grog
Fri Jan 26, 2018 6:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do Alpha Males Deliver Alpha? Testosterone and Hedge Funds
Replies: 16
Views: 1516

Do Alpha Males Deliver Alpha? Testosterone and Hedge Funds

From the hallowed halls of academia, new research about hedge fund performance. Abstract Using facial width-to-height ratio (fWHR) as a proxy for pubertal testosterone, we show that high-testosterone hedge fund managers significantly underperform low-testosterone hedge fund managers after adjusting ...
by grog
Fri Jan 26, 2018 1:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do low-volatility stocks behave better in a bear market?
Replies: 8
Views: 1041

Re: Do low-volatility stocks behave better in a bear market?

Defensive stocks have historically performed quite well. If you look at the Vanguard sector funds, the three defensive sectors (consumer staples, utilities, health care) have all returned more than TSM since inception (2005) and of course with lower volatility and drawdowns. And as I understand it, ...
by grog
Thu Jan 25, 2018 2:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 50% of my portfolio in FANG - 15% in NVDA
Replies: 64
Views: 6936

Re: 50% of my portfolio in FANG - 15% in NVDA

The point again is it doesn't matter if you invested some money in a stock like Amazon, in order to make it matter you have to bet very large amounts and risk going broke. I would disagree with that. A relatively small amount of money in an investment that does very well will matter greatly, given ...
by grog
Tue Jan 23, 2018 10:29 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: ETF Equivalent to Mutual Funds
Replies: 9
Views: 726

Re: ETF Equivalent to Mutual Funds

If you're at Fidelity, you probably want to look at the Blackrock iShares lineup. The commission-free listing at Fidelity should cover everything you need.

https://www.fidelity.com/etfs/ishares
by grog
Thu Jan 18, 2018 8:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Are ETFs Really That Safe?
Replies: 26
Views: 2551

Re: Are ETFs Really That Safe?

Mr Bogle has no objection to buying and holding something like VTI. His criticisms are primarily 1) that they can be traded frequently, 2) the explosion of a lot of very narrow ETFs. He thinks those are marketing hype and won’t be around long. A robotics ETF is exactly the kind of thing he would dis...
by grog
Tue Jan 16, 2018 3:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: GE and the myth of "safe blue-chip stocks"
Replies: 130
Views: 18542

Re: GE and the myth of "safe blue-chip stocks"

I find the idea of "blue chip" companies to be a somewhat useful concept as long as you realize that they are "safe" only relative to other stocks and recognize that they still carry uncompensated diversifiable risk. Certain funds like VIG (Vanguard Dividend Appreciation) have diversified exposure t...
by grog
Tue Jan 16, 2018 12:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: I'm hooked
Replies: 22
Views: 4259

Re: I'm hooked

I was always a saver, but before I found this site not even five years ago I had little practical knowledge and was mostly saving money in the bank at minimal interest. In my 401K, had I continued contributing just up to the match as I had been doing, I would have missed out on about 25K in gains in...
by grog
Sat Jan 13, 2018 4:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Getting out of Whole Life Insurance
Replies: 15
Views: 1394

Re: Getting out of Whole Life Insurance

I would call and get an illustration and figure out exactly what your options are. You are currently 190k in the hole. Will this number get better or worse in the next few years (under various options)? And how does that compare to alternative investments? MEC status isn’t ideal, but neither is payi...
by grog
Fri Jan 12, 2018 4:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Robo-Investors driving the market to insane levels?
Replies: 36
Views: 5553

Re: Are Robo-Investors driving the market to insane levels?

The S&P 500 returned 21% in 2017. Just to put the recent "insane" run-up in perspective, this also occurred in 2013 2009 2003 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 1991 1989 1985 1983 1982 1980 ... If you'd invested a lump sum on Jan 1, 1980, you would've multiplied your money by 4.5x by the the end of the decad...
by grog
Fri Jan 12, 2018 3:21 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How do credit card companies determine how much credit to give you?
Replies: 5
Views: 951

Re: How do credit card companies determine how much credit to give you?

I'm not an insider and I don't know their formulas, but whenever I've applied or asked for increases, they've asked me 1) my income, 2) my mortgage or rent payment. It seems like they combine this with credit report info. I have heard they look at credit utilization metric, so presumably they are aw...
by grog
Tue Jan 09, 2018 10:33 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Why not put part of your Efund into total market ETF?
Replies: 14
Views: 1025

Re: Why not put part of your Efund into total market ETF?

When there's a crash, there are a lot more sellers than buyers and prices plummet for the markets to clear. Prices can fall quickly. In the '87 crash, prices fell over 20% in one day. Someone has to be left holding the bag and you will not be the one with the advantage.
by grog
Tue Jan 09, 2018 10:02 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Why not put part of your Efund into total market ETF?
Replies: 14
Views: 1025

Re: Why not put part of your Efund into total market ETF?

You can shift money from cash into stocks if you're comfortable with risk, but it really ceases to be an emergency fund at that point. Also, don't fool yourself with low volatility strategies. They are only "low" compared to overall equity markets, but still far riskier than cash. The MSCI Min Vol I...
by grog
Mon Jan 08, 2018 6:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Question about Taxable Accounts
Replies: 1
Views: 385

Re: Question about Taxable Accounts

I started a brokerage account last year. To get started, I would suggest 1) Learn about how fund distributions get taxed. Qualified vs. unqualified dividends, capital gains distributions, and so forth. 2) Look into the difference between mutual funds and ETFs and decide which you find more appealing...
by grog
Sun Jan 07, 2018 5:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Patience And Diversification Crucial
Replies: 51
Views: 7132

Re: Larry Swedroe: Patience And Diversification Crucial

The market write large contains all the risk factors in a way but they cancel each other out. What we are trying to do is own the factors that are distinct, have positive expected returns and get the benefit of diversifying across them. Why would you want to own risk factors with negative expected ...
by grog
Sun Jan 07, 2018 1:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Morningstar Premium for $99
Replies: 33
Views: 4353

Re: Morningstar Premium for $99

You can use Xray and Chart any fund for free, what do you get beyond that? That's all I ever really needed. I was always curious what else there is, but never signed up for a free trial. I did the trial recently. You can get that xray stuff for a specific fund for free but premium let's you do it a...
by grog
Sat Jan 06, 2018 10:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Anyone tired of the stock market going up?
Replies: 309
Views: 32617

Re: Anyone tired of the stock market going up?

The regular ol' P/E has been driven up to 24 or so. Hard to be thrilled about that. One thing Jack stresses is that stock returns ultimately derive from the earnings. He has said he expects fairly low returns given the corporate earnings growth we've seen coupled with the headwind of a high P/E. On ...
by grog
Sat Jan 06, 2018 5:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Anyone tired of the stock market going up?
Replies: 309
Views: 32617

Re: Anyone tired of the stock market going up?

I feel like the lack of volatility is lulling investors into believing that the stock market is "safe". The next correction is going to surprise some folks. It has been a bizarrely steady climb ever since the presidential election. Not much news aside from the tax bill, yet the market just marches ...
by grog
Sat Jan 06, 2018 11:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does the S&P 500 Grow Faster Than the Economy?
Replies: 31
Views: 3327

Re: Does the S&P 500 Grow Faster Than the Economy?

Wasn’t this basically Picketty’s thesis in Capital in the 21st Century? I think the idea was that the return on capital tends to be greater than underlying growth and this tends to naturally concentrate wealth over time with things getting reset periodically with economic crises and wars and such.
by grog
Sat Jan 06, 2018 9:59 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Thoughts on VTWV for small cap value (Paul Merriman)
Replies: 22
Views: 3837

Re: Thoughts on VTWV for small cap value (Paul Merriman)

Some people say CRSP is not pure enough small-cap. You might prefer S&P if that’s a concern. In practice, those have had comparable performance. Russell 2000 just isn’t popular since it hasn’t done as well and this is generally attributed to flaws in the index methodology. Regardless I would probabl...
by grog
Fri Jan 05, 2018 11:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small cap value vs. total market?
Replies: 105
Views: 14248

Re: Small cap value vs. total market?

But you wouldn’t sub SCV and TSM one for one, would you? Shouldn’t the comparison be between TSM and SCV diluted with fixed income/cash? Does SCV give you, if not a free lunch, the claimed free dessert? Not really a free anything, I would say. SCV gives you greater expected return in exchange for t...
by grog
Fri Jan 05, 2018 9:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Patience And Diversification Crucial
Replies: 51
Views: 7132

Re: Larry Swedroe: Patience And Diversification Crucial

Some historical perspective in order. When Fama and French first described the small and value factors, factor investing seemed simple. Just load up on small cap weight stocks with low book to market values and the magic happened. Few if any SCV funds these days do that. SCV funds now screen out th...
by grog
Fri Jan 05, 2018 6:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Muni Money Market funds starting to look good!
Replies: 139
Views: 24552

Re: Muni Money Market funds starting to look good!

These are the distribution yields between Prime and Muni MM: Date Prime Muni Spread 12/29/2017 1.30% 1.06% 0.24% 11/30/2017 1.16% 0.83% 0.33% 10/31/2017 1.13% 0.81% 0.32% 9/29/2017 1.12% 0.75% 0.37% 8/31/2017 1.10% 0.70% 0.40% 7/31/2017 1.09% 0.74% 0.35% 6/30/2017 1.02% 0.70% 0.32% 5/31/2017 0.96% 0...
by grog
Fri Jan 05, 2018 4:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small cap value vs. total market?
Replies: 105
Views: 14248

Re: Small cap value vs. total market?

Asset Class A is riskier than Asset Class B. While A has a documented history of outperforming B over the long term, there have been stretches when A underperformed B for an extended period. The risk/reward relationship between A and B is generally known by most investors. Assuming it fits within o...
by grog
Fri Jan 05, 2018 9:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Patience And Diversification Crucial
Replies: 51
Views: 7132

Re: Larry Swedroe: Patience And Diversification Crucial

I am somewhat new here, but factor investing seems very un Bogle like. Picking a factor feels like looking in the rearview mirror and hoping a class of asset will repeat past performance / outperformance. I thought the idea is to own the market as a part of an asset allocation you can live with, ke...
by grog
Thu Jan 04, 2018 6:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: New investor
Replies: 7
Views: 397

Re: New investor

Another thing about VIG is that, despite the title, it really isn't a high yield/income fund (under 2%). It screens for quality companies that have capacity to increase dividends steadily, but they don't necessarily yield a lot currently.
by grog
Thu Jan 04, 2018 6:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: New investor
Replies: 7
Views: 397

Re: New investor

Yes, ETFs are a good way around the $3,000 minimums. One thing I would note is that VIG is a somewhat defensive fund. Then the small cap is more aggressive, somewhat the opposite. That's not necessarily a bad strategy and historically that will probably backtest pretty well, but you might want to ma...
by grog
Thu Jan 04, 2018 5:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Looking at S&P 400 Mid-Cap Index in Taxable
Replies: 2
Views: 383

Looking at S&P 400 Mid-Cap Index in Taxable

I opened up a Fidelity brokerage account last year and am getting around to actually investing it. Up till now I've mostly invested in tax advantaged and hence have never paid much attention to tax efficiency. I'm looking primarily at ITOT (iShares Total Stock Market) and IXUS (iShares Total Interna...
by grog
Sat Dec 30, 2017 11:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jack Bogle’s 5 bold investment predictions for 2018 and beyond.
Replies: 39
Views: 7432

Re: Jack Bogle’s 5 bold investment predictions for 2018 and beyond.

While I've been a big U.S. equity proponent, ongoing research is making me really question this. The U.S. market is one of the priciest in the world, and from a historical perspective, it's more than likely that the international scene will significantly outperform the U.S. over the next decade or ...
by grog
Sat Dec 30, 2017 10:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jack Bogle’s 5 bold investment predictions for 2018 and beyond.
Replies: 39
Views: 7432

Re: Jack Bogle’s 5 bold investment predictions for 2018 and beyond.

Interesting. He projects a 4% return for stocks and 3.1% for bonds. I occasionally regret that I am 65% in bonds, but this helps. Is this real return? I think it was actually nominal if I understood him correctly. There’s a dividend yield of 2 and change plus earnings growth of maybe 4-5% (historic...
by grog
Sat Dec 30, 2017 1:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What ever happened to the Larry portfolio?
Replies: 120
Views: 13370

Re: What ever happened to the Larry portfolio?

The small and value premiums will fluctuate from year to year; but over the long term, investors must necessarily be rewarded for the risk they take investing in riskier companies. Don't growth stocks present risks of their own? If a growth stock is priced assuming a lot of future sales and profits...
by grog
Sat Dec 30, 2017 1:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Case Against Individual Stock Picking
Replies: 22
Views: 2187

Re: Case Against Individual Stock Picking

It's hard to make predictions. Especially about the future. The fate of any particular company is pretty much random. Diversification is a free lunch because a lot of that randomness gets averaged out. But the catch is that you also lose that upside randomness. C'est la vie. If you'd put $10,000 dow...
by grog
Fri Dec 29, 2017 2:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bonds - Index vs Actively Managed
Replies: 18
Views: 1931

Re: Bonds - Index vs Actively Managed

Bonds are all driven by the same yield curve, so I think it makes even less sense to pay for a bond picker than it does a stock picker. The flip side though is that it also doesn’t matter that much if you’re not slavishly following an index, but an index still has some advantages. 1) low cost, 2) di...
by grog
Fri Dec 29, 2017 12:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What ever happened to the Larry portfolio?
Replies: 120
Views: 13370

Re: What ever happened to the Larry portfolio?

Yeah, I was just keeping it simple. The general principle is substituting tilts for equity and holding more and safer fixed income.

With 100% stocks with aggressive tilts, that’s essentially subtituting tilts for leverage. Which could make sense given the 100% ceiling and the cost of borrowing.
by grog
Fri Dec 29, 2017 11:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What ever happened to the Larry portfolio?
Replies: 120
Views: 13370

Re: What ever happened to the Larry portfolio?

If someone were to go Larry style for the accumulation phase, I guess rather than say an 80/20 TSM/TBM, you might do something like 60/40 IJS (iShares small value)/IEI (iShares 1-3 yr treasury). The Larry is designed to lose less in a 2008 style crash, but max drawdown isn’t the most important consi...
by grog
Thu Dec 28, 2017 12:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What ever happened to the Larry portfolio?
Replies: 120
Views: 13370

Re: What ever happened to the Larry portfolio?

The Larry seems like a decent portfolio for people who are already rich.
by grog
Wed Dec 27, 2017 8:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is anyone putting money aside into Gold?
Replies: 148
Views: 15190

Re: Is anyone putting money aside into Gold?

On the one hand, gold has a long history as a monetary metal, and as an investment it’s hard to ignore the fact that gold has been the top performing asset in the 70s and again in the 2000s. However I have doubts about it as a prospective investment at this point. I had some IAU for a little while a...
by grog
Wed Dec 27, 2017 2:48 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Navy Federal CU Special Certificate
Replies: 7
Views: 2064

Re: Navy Federal CU Special Certificate

Allowing additional deposits is a nice feature. I think I will open with a couple thousand as a placeholder and re-evaluate later.

The website isn’t letting me open it online, so I’ll have to call to set it up.
by grog
Wed Dec 27, 2017 12:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Managed Vol Strategies Work
Replies: 24
Views: 2586

Re: Larry Swedroe: Managed Vol Strategies Work

I remember Larry being dismissive of low volatility/minimum variance strategies. Despite the similar names, this “managed volatility” seems like an unrelated strategy that’s more about altering exposure (through leverage?) based on overall market volatility. Note that if market returns are positive,...
by grog
Wed Dec 27, 2017 11:04 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: The car dealership model needs to die
Replies: 85
Views: 5144

Re: The car dealership model needs to die

Just yesterday I was talking to a guy I’ve known for a long time. Guy has never had it together financially. He has a modest salary and lives paycheck to paycheck. I saw him with a newish car and I was a rather puzzled why he would make such a purchase. Him: It was about $18,500 Me: Uh, why didn’t y...
by grog
Tue Dec 26, 2017 4:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Prime Money Market Fund (VMMXX) breaks 1.00 (% not $)
Replies: 180
Views: 34650

Re: Vanguard Prime Money Market Fund (VMMXX) breaks 1.00 (% not $)

Vanguard prime money market page says it’s up to 1.34% (7 day avg yield). Can that possibly be right?

T bills are at 1.24% for one month, up to 1.75% for the one year. So I guess that would explain it.
by grog
Tue Dec 26, 2017 3:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is a Total Stock Market Index enough...
Replies: 36
Views: 7109

Re: Is a Total Stock Market Index enough...

TSM guarantees you the market return with low cost. Is the market return “enough”? You can say no, but too bad since that’s all you can realistically demand. And actually the historical market return has been pretty dang good. I will be ecstatic if I can get half that. S&P 500 is also fine. That is ...
by grog
Tue Dec 26, 2017 10:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much should 20-30yr olds have in their 401s? And which funds?
Replies: 5
Views: 1357

Re: How much should 20-30yr olds have in their 401s? And which funds?

I’ve never focused on what my balance “should” be since returns are noisy and out of my control. But I do think it’s good to have an end goal and to be realistic about how to make that happen. At younger ages, there will be tremendous variation due to career choice (which is a lot more important tha...
by grog
Mon Dec 25, 2017 9:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Inflation can cream bonds VBTLX vs VSCSX
Replies: 42
Views: 4042

Re: Inflation can cream bonds VBTLX vs VSCSX

Bond yields account for expected inflation. Unexpectedly high inflation will be bad for nominal bonds with long maturities, obviously. But inflation is not the only consideration. Total bond is probably the better core holding when you look at yield, credit quality, etc. You seem to want to cut your...