Search found 302 matches

by grog
Tue Dec 12, 2017 12:20 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Wellesley as an alternative to CDs and money market?
Replies: 8
Views: 839

Re: Wellesley as an alternative to CDs and money market?

Wellesley is designed to be an income fund so it holds bonds and dividend paying stocks. If you aren't really looking for income, this sort of fund isn't the most tax efficient since the coupon payments and dividends are generally taxed every year as regular income. It will also have more turnover t...
by grog
Mon Dec 11, 2017 9:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Where do I put 50k I don't need?
Replies: 21
Views: 1865

Re: Where do I put 50k I don't need?

The default is to do a stock/bond mix with as many bonds as you're comfortable with. Alternatively, you might do something like 35K in CDs (or something else safe) and 15K in something aggressive (small caps, emerging markets, etc.). With this, the bulk of the money is very safe to give you a nice f...
by grog
Mon Dec 11, 2017 5:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Does a tilt toward consumer staples make sense?
Replies: 15
Views: 746

Re: Does a tilt toward consumer staples make sense?

Consumer staples companies sell stuff with fairly inelastic demand and hence tend to do better during down markets. They also tend to grow fairly slowly. Historically, they have been "low beta," lower volatility investments yet they have had surprisingly good returns, significantly higher than you'd...
by grog
Sat Dec 09, 2017 11:03 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Do you have any guilty pleasure investments?
Replies: 53
Views: 2880

Re: Do you have any guilty pleasure investments?

Sandtrap wrote:
Fri Dec 08, 2017 10:38 am
...I also have Wellesley Income Fund because my wife and I like the sound of the name.
Modern funds have very descriptive, utilitarian names that tell you exactly what they do. But there's no personality to it. Wellington is a very classy sounding fund name.
by grog
Fri Dec 08, 2017 6:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The International Index and the Relentless Rules of Humble Arithmetic
Replies: 8
Views: 1109

Re: The International Index and the Relentless Rules of Humble Arithmetic

A passive fund return can consistently lag the median return of tne corresponding active funds. Of course, it still beats the total return of the active sector averaged by capitalization, but not averaged by number of funds. Just imagine a lot of small active funds overperforming and a few large on...
by grog
Fri Dec 08, 2017 12:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The International Index and the Relentless Rules of Humble Arithmetic
Replies: 8
Views: 1109

The International Index and the Relentless Rules of Humble Arithmetic

I'm on the Morningstar free trial right now and was browsing some of their fund analyses. I'd like to highlight a few familiar funds. Vanguard Total Stock Market Fund: -"Positive" performance rating. -"Superior" long-term performance. -Has outpaced the Large Blend category average by 1.7% per year o...
by grog
Wed Dec 06, 2017 11:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jack Bogle Says ‘Avoid Bitcoin Like the Plague’
Replies: 157
Views: 13854

Re: Jack Bogle Says ‘Avoid Bitcoin Like the Plague’

I remember a buddy buying Dow Corning at $110, because fiber optics were the "future of the internet" and growth was "unlimited". http://i66.tinypic.com/n64600.png I personally bought at about $80 on the way up, and $70 on the way down. "GLW" was my personal lesson on "I don't know squat about any ...
by grog
Tue Dec 05, 2017 7:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Managing Risk With Factors
Replies: 121
Views: 9615

Re: Larry Swedroe: Managing Risk With Factors

But apparently, the considered downside is if the factor premiums, going forward, are 1/3 less than they have been. In my opinion, the potential downside is not the factor premiums being 1/3 than they've been, but rather, being NEGATIVE. With TSM you are mathematically guaranteed the market's avera...
by grog
Tue Dec 05, 2017 1:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Unsolicited advice - 32 yo w/ 80% bonds, fixed income fund
Replies: 36
Views: 3109

Re: Unsolicited advice - 32 yo w/ 80% bonds, fixed income fund

If it's a buddy, I would make fun of him for having a grandma portfolio.
by grog
Tue Dec 05, 2017 1:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard to launch US 'smart beta' ETFs - Will this board burn down?
Replies: 129
Views: 11302

Re: Vanguard to launch US 'smart beta' ETFs - Will this board burn down?

From an interview with Mr. Bogle:
InvestmentNews: What do you think of smart beta?

Mr. Bogle: I can't believe you asked me that.
http://www.investmentnews.com/article/2 ... -to-change
by grog
Mon Dec 04, 2017 9:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Craig Rowland not blogging anymore on Permanent Portfolio.
Replies: 30
Views: 4572

Re: Craig Rowland not blogging anymore on Permanent Portfolio.

Another problem with backtesting returns for the PP is the common failure to look at returns based on cost averaging, rather than lump sum. When you look at the 1975 to 2017 gold returns, the big gains occurred in the 1970s when an investor making annual investments would have had relatively little...
by grog
Fri Dec 01, 2017 2:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Finding The Source Of Value
Replies: 19
Views: 2080

Re: Larry Swedroe: Finding The Source Of Value

I always have a hard time accepting the notion that I'm getting paid for extra risk, as a holder of large-cap value stock vs., say an S&P 500 index. Am I wrong to think that I'm arguably better positioned to weather a potential bear market than a S&P 500 holder? If I'm not wrong, then remind me aga...
by grog
Thu Nov 23, 2017 6:14 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Replace TVs with Smart Tvs or not?
Replies: 57
Views: 4427

Re: Replace TVs with Smart Tvs or not?

Not entirely related but whenever I’m at someone’s house and they have a fancy TV, movies usually look terrible. Kind of like a cheap soap opera. Borderline unwatchable. It’s some sort of picture smoothing feature and it can probably be disabled, but it makes me want to cling to my no frills LCD.
by grog
Mon Nov 20, 2017 4:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is holding bonds now dangerous?
Replies: 155
Views: 13791

Re: Is holding bonds now dangerous?

Bond FUNDS are self-correcting. As old bonds mature, they get redeemed, and new bonds (at the newer rates) get bought and added to the portfolio. Can someone verify that this is correct? I thought so too, but then I discovered that bond funds have a pretty high turnover ratio (Vanguard Total Bond M...
by grog
Mon Nov 20, 2017 12:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: WSJ commentary about declining # of publicly traded companies
Replies: 40
Views: 3614

Re: WSJ commentary about declining # of publicly traded companies

The concern seems to be that the public stock market is becoming an inadequate stand-in for the overall equity universe. But I suspect "number of public companies" is probably not the best metric to address that question. -M&A activity will affect the number of companies but doesn't necessarily indi...
by grog
Wed Oct 11, 2017 10:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: WSJ- ‘Passive’ Investing Frenzy Pushes Vanguard to $4.7 Trillion in Assets Assets topped $4 trillion for the first time
Replies: 3
Views: 1023

Re: WSJ- ‘Passive’ Investing Frenzy Pushes Vanguard to $4.7 Trillion in Assets Assets topped $4 trillion for the first

If you want to get technical, something like a quarter of Vanguard's assets are actively managed. Anyway, This is from a similar article from NYT a few months ago: In the last three calendar years, investors sank $823 billion into Vanguard funds, the company says. The scale of that inflow becomes cl...
by grog
Wed Oct 04, 2017 1:53 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: MoviePass-Too good to be true, but it's legit.
Replies: 138
Views: 15340

Re: MoviePass-Too good to be true, but it's legit.

This service is pretty new and it's still really small. In that situation, the service might be a truly great deal for frequent moviegoers. For the moment . As this thing scales though, it might not continue with such favorable terms. I'm not clear on their full business model, but what I read said ...
by grog
Wed Sep 06, 2017 5:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Moshe Milevsky on Tontines"
Replies: 61
Views: 8530

Re: "Moshe Milevsky on Tontines"

ResearchMed, you're thinking of only the most extreme version. The more usual design would pay out at least the investment income year by year. For example, if everyone puts up $100K and the money is invested in nominal bonds paying 5%, you'd get $5,000/year to start, gradually increasing as people ...
by grog
Wed Sep 06, 2017 2:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Moshe Milevsky on Tontines"
Replies: 61
Views: 8530

Re: "Moshe Milevsky on Tontines"

Mr. Milevsky has a new article on tontines appearing in the Actuary magazine. These are the main points I got from it, many of which have been covered previously: -Unlike pensions and annuities, the plan sponsor has essentially no exposure to longevity risk and therefore doesn't need to put up much ...
by grog
Wed May 24, 2017 4:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Raj Chetty on the rationality of dividends
Replies: 2
Views: 754

Raj Chetty on the rationality of dividends

I was listening to a podcast with economist Raj Chetty (interviewed by Tyler Cowen) and he made some comments about why it may be rational for firms to pay dividends. The usual take here is the total return theory that says you should just liquidate shares whenever you want cash, thereby creating yo...
by grog
Sun Apr 16, 2017 9:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Correlation Between Yield Change and Duration
Replies: 5
Views: 589

Re: Correlation Between Yield Change and Duration

Intuitively, one might suppose that "duration" shouldn't change if all the payments are fixed. But the formula for duration uses the present values of the cash flows, discounted at the yield rate. So the duration will change even if the cash flows and timing of the cash flows have not changed since ...
by grog
Wed Mar 15, 2017 6:13 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: FBI warns of Binary Options Fraud
Replies: 3
Views: 1214

Re: FBI warns of Binary Options Fraud

That is a good point. With a true option like a call or a put you pay a premium for right to buy or sell the security at the strike price. If you buy a call and it ends up in the money, when you exercise the option you actually take ownership of the underlying security (even if very briefly). What's...
by grog
Tue Mar 14, 2017 9:41 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: FBI warns of Binary Options Fraud
Replies: 3
Views: 1214

FBI warns of Binary Options Fraud

The FBI warns that many binary options solicitations and websites are fraudulent. https://www.fbi.gov/news/stories/binary-options-fraud What exactly is a binary option? It’s a type of options contract in which the payout depends entirely on the outcome of a yes/no proposition, typically related to w...
by grog
Mon Jan 09, 2017 4:24 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Teeth whitening
Replies: 38
Views: 4289

Re: Teeth whitening

Activated charcoal. It's sounds kind of crazy, but just put some in your mouth and at first it turns your teeth black. At that point it won't appear to be helping much (heh). But it's very binding and when it rinses away it leaves your teeth cleaner. I believe it's pretty good for removing stains, b...
by grog
Fri Jan 06, 2017 6:16 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Investing in a Masters and Ph.D?
Replies: 101
Views: 6687

Re: Investing in a Masters and Ph.D?

I've met a lot of people that have gone for PhDs in, for example, English because they "love to read," and they always seem to end up regretting it. I think in the vast majority of cases the people would be better off just trying to get good jobs in something that pays and dabbling in what...
by grog
Tue Jan 03, 2017 3:46 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: USAA Dividend Distribution
Replies: 28
Views: 3784

Re: USAA Dividend Distribution

I got $20. I think it was $50-60 the year before. They probably target a particular loss ratio and set the dividend/refund based on that, perhaps with some kind of multi-year smoothing mechanism. I think the subscribers account (which I don't have) is a little more complicated. I believe they calcul...
by grog
Tue Dec 20, 2016 1:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle's Books
Replies: 10
Views: 1296

Re: Bogle's Books

His Little Book of Investing is a good one. Short and sweet but really lays down the basics. His older ones are much longer and more detailed.
by grog
Fri Dec 16, 2016 12:31 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 20% Match on 401k.. sorta.
Replies: 45
Views: 5563

Re: 20% Match on 401k.. sorta.

This is very shady, in my opinion. It is standard in the entire 401k ecosystem for match to be a percentage of salary for both parties, not a percentage of the employee's contribution. Depending on your position and political capital, you could call them out on that. It varies by company. Most do t...
by grog
Fri Dec 16, 2016 10:50 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Your fava 70% dark chocolate brand?
Replies: 40
Views: 3630

Re: Your fava 70% dark chocolate brand?

Millcreek Cacao Roasters http://www.millcreekcacao.com/chocolate-bars/ I pick some up whenever I am in Salt Lake 'City. Worth every penny. I tried a few bars from a company called Amano based in Utah. Absolutely fantastic. Pricey though. Amano and a few other high end chocolate companies use heirlo...
by grog
Thu Dec 15, 2016 5:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Value of Low Volatility
Replies: 65
Views: 7693

Re: The Value of Low Volatility

So what is the deal with REITs? You'd think those would be low volatility, bond-like stocks. Yet they are high beta and high volatility. Is this because these companies are leveraged? Or is the recent data anomalous because of the housing bubble?
by grog
Thu Dec 15, 2016 12:56 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Cancel collision coverage on older car?
Replies: 40
Views: 3250

Re: Cancel collision coverage on older car?

Sounds like it wouldn't take much to total the car. But remember that even if it's totaled you would still get paid. Probably $4k or so less the deductible. If you wrecked the car, how upset would you be about it with and without that insurance check? Now discount that for how likely you think it is...
by grog
Wed Dec 14, 2016 11:50 am
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: How Did You Become A Boglehead? What Led You Here?
Replies: 168
Views: 17561

Re: How Did You Become A Boglehead? What Led You Here?

I've always had an interest in economics and finance. My grandpa was very into mutual funds and subscribed to all the finance magazines. He was a fan of Charles Schwab and explained to me the virtues of no-load funds. So my exposure to low costs was pretty early. He wasn't an indexer though, since h...
by grog
Fri Dec 02, 2016 5:33 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Handling "drive-by" doctoring bills following surgery?
Replies: 107
Views: 12123

Re: Handling "drive-by" doctoring bills following surgery?

My son had tubes put in his ears in January. The actual procedure took <10min, we were in and out of the hospital in <45min. The ENT, who conducted the procedure, charged (I think) ~$300, the anesthesiologist was ~400, and the hospital charged $8400 . After insurance negotiation, our deductible, et...
by grog
Tue Nov 29, 2016 3:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Interpreting stock metrics, do they relate to each other?
Replies: 1
Views: 177

Interpreting stock metrics, do they relate to each other?

I was taking a look at some of the annual reports from Vanguard and was checking out the commonly reported equity metrics such as the P/E ratio, the price-to-book, the ROE, etc. While I know the definitions of these individual metrics, I was wondering if there are any rules of thumb for looking at t...
by grog
Thu Oct 20, 2016 1:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [WSJ - What Does Nevada’s $35 Billion Fund Manager Do All Day? Nothing]
Replies: 35
Views: 3905

Re: WSJ - What Does Nevada’s $35 Billion Fund Manager Do All Day? Nothing

Jack FFR1846 wrote:Sounds like what I do with my portfolio. I wonder if he rebalances on his birthday too.


Do you do it on your birthday because it's a treat or is it just so you don't forget?
by grog
Fri Sep 23, 2016 3:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: WSJ: Bank Balance better predictor of happiness than Total Wealth
Replies: 43
Views: 7640

Re: WSJ: Bank Balance better predictor of happiness than Total Wealth

Such correlational studies are always full of holes. For example, cash may inversely correlate to spending. Maybe people who have a lot of cash are more easily meeting their daily financial expenses than those who have less, or just have less desire or need for material goods or just can spend less...
by grog
Tue Sep 13, 2016 2:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: WSJ: Bank Balance better predictor of happiness than Total Wealth
Replies: 43
Views: 7640

WSJ: Bank Balance better predictor of happiness than Total Wealth

Based on an analysis of a survey of bank customers in the UK, We find a very interesting effect: that the amount of money you have in your bank account right now is a better predictor of happiness than your aggregate wealth. Having more money in their bank account makes people feel more financially ...
by grog
Tue Sep 13, 2016 1:22 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Foreign Language Programs for Commute?
Replies: 19
Views: 2313

Re: Foreign Language Programs for Commute?

+1 for Pimsleur. It's expensive but many libraries have it. It's an audio only program that will get you comfortable with a lot of basic communication and will give you a good feel for the language. It's a great way to start a language, in my opinion. Spanish is easier and generally more useful in t...
by grog
Wed Aug 10, 2016 11:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: College bubble - any good articles or books on this?
Replies: 57
Views: 5554

Re: College bubble - any good articles or books on this?

This isn't about a bubble per se, but you might find this Intelligence Squared debate interesting: m The proposition under debate is "Too many kids go to college." I've seen this. Peter Thiel's comments are the most relevant to this topic. He started a "scholarship" program for ...
by grog
Wed Aug 10, 2016 10:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why are bonds taxed more than stocks?
Replies: 29
Views: 4082

Re: Why are bonds taxed more than stocks?

I believe the thinking is that with bonds you're getting a pretty steady stream of payments so it's taxed as regular income. Meanwhile capital gains from stocks are often realized over time and some amount of the "gain" is merely inflation. For dividends it's often argued that they are dou...
by grog
Fri Jul 29, 2016 10:13 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Interview in Silicon Valley - Suit?
Replies: 95
Views: 8801

Re: Interview in Silicon Valley - Suit?

Peter Thiel made some comments on this. No suit, he says.

http://www.businessinsider.com/peter-thiel-ama-2014-9
by grog
Wed Jul 20, 2016 1:14 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: insurance process questions (totalled car and parked car damage)
Replies: 4
Views: 507

Re: insurance process questions (totalled car and parked car damage)

It just means that you have to get a salvage title for the car. My understanding is that it serves as a warning for a future buyer. A car will sell better with a clean title, but if you keep it for personal use and don't intend to sell it's not really that big a deal.
by grog
Wed Jul 20, 2016 10:57 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: insurance process questions (totalled car and parked car damage)
Replies: 4
Views: 507

Re: insurance process questions (totalled car and parked car damage)

The insurance company is legally required to essentially restore the car to as close to the pre-accident condition as possible. So the quote they will give you will usually include things like repainting and blending to match the other panels. If they were to total your car then you'd have the optio...
by grog
Tue Jul 19, 2016 4:50 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Buying Used Vehicle (cash or loan)
Replies: 4
Views: 638

Re: Buying Used Vehicle (cash or loan)

I was in a similar situation recently and my credit union was offering 3.5% for used car loans. I decided it wasn't worth it. I don't know who's giving you 1.98%, but if it's through the dealer you want to make sure they aren't giving you a "good" rate and bad price. I have been advised th...
by grog
Mon Jul 18, 2016 6:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Another look at corporate bonds
Replies: 209
Views: 16497

Re: Another look at corporate bonds

Hi Larry, Currently the option-adjusted spread for BBB corporates is 1.97% (m). At what spread would you currently consider corporate bonds to be "worth it"? My understanding is that you are simply pointing out that investors have not been rewarded adequately for credit risk in the past. ...
by grog
Sat Jul 16, 2016 10:17 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Car Maintenance for the Urban Dweller
Replies: 9
Views: 1079

Car Maintenance for the Urban Dweller

I just bought a car, a 2012 compact in pretty good condition. I live in a city and park the car in the street. My last vehicle was an older car that only survived four and half years and during that time it was hit twice while it was parked. The second time it was totaled though I ended up keeping i...
by grog
Sat Jul 16, 2016 8:48 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Clothing upgrade for professional environment
Replies: 78
Views: 5551

Re: Clothing upgrade for professional environment

At the opposite and more common extreme, a lot of men wear shirts that are far too baggy or just generally oversized. I cannot imagine wearing the oversized shirts I wore just ten years ago. In a world of S-M-L-XL, it's unlikely that you'll find something that looks amazing because people come in l...
by grog
Fri Jul 15, 2016 3:00 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Clothing upgrade for professional environment
Replies: 78
Views: 5551

Re: Clothing upgrade for professional environment

If you're three years out of college and haven't purchased any new professional clothes then I'd say this is long overdue! That said, I don't think there's any reason to rush out and buy a ton of clothes. I would start out gradually. In my experience, shopping and dressing well is a skill that can t...
by grog
Mon May 30, 2016 2:37 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Soapbox (car safety features)
Replies: 240
Views: 28553

Re: Soapbox (car safety features)

If not, please provide examples of where you find it beneficial to pace the car directly in front of you. You're on a moderately busy road and the car in front of you is traveling at a speed you find comfortable that is just below your desired speed. Say you'd do 65 and the car in front has its cru...
by grog
Wed May 25, 2016 2:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Berkshire Hathaway always beats SP500
Replies: 51
Views: 7266

Re: Berkshire Hathaway always beats SP500

There was a paper from some researchers at Yale that suggested Berkshires higher returns were due to Buffett's cheap source of leverage. Anyone familiar and or have comments on that theory? Since Berkshire has been heavily involved in insurance and reinsurance, I think the leverage spoken of refers...