Search found 1149 matches

by thx1138
Thu Aug 12, 2021 9:16 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Losing a job in your 50's...
Replies: 854
Views: 165508

Re: Losing a job in your 50's...

If average is good enough, why are a lot of the 30-something dotcom folks I know gone from IT careers? If average is good enough, why are almost all of their linkedin something nothing to do with IT today? I can speak more to engineering than IT, but it's because after 4-7 years experience you know enough to be able to handle all the routine tasks. There can be a brilliant architect but she needs worker bees to turn the ideas into reality. So kids in their late 20's are the ideal hire. They haven't had the decades of smallish raises that add up eventually. Those in their 40's & 50's have the same skill set as those kids. Maybe a bit faster or some things, or a bit more experienced on others, but not worth 1.5x or 2x the salary. And the...
by thx1138
Mon Jul 19, 2021 1:20 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Drop Collision Comp Insurance - Forbes
Replies: 46
Views: 5224

Re: Drop Collision Comp Insurance - Forbes

Also be aware of the insurance laws in your state as to how likely it is for your collision policy to come into play. Various “no fault” laws may greatly restrict the conditions in which the other party’s liability policy will cover and in such states you’ll likely find that liability policies are relatively inexpensive in comparison to surprisingly high collision policies regardless of a good driving record because the collision policy is most likely to come into play even for a “good driver” due to the state laws. For example in our state unless an accident is deemed 100% one party’s fault then liability doesn’t come into play. If a lawyer can get 1% fault allocated to the other driver then no liability at all. Secondly realize dealing wi...
by thx1138
Mon May 17, 2021 4:38 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Quitting job with no plan- Please help assess my situation
Replies: 95
Views: 12499

Re: Quitting job with no plan- Please help assess my situation

Many people have given you excellent advice from a variety of perspectives. I’ll add just one more I haven’t seen said yet. Based on all the numbers you gave and your age you are in no way whatsoever being remotely compensated enough to work in that kind of environment. It’s exploitive poison. Get out. Sure, people put up with that sort of stuff but for real money that means they can stop working young. Don’t enable further exploitation on the way out, set boundaries. I think what’s left for you is to decide on your exit strategy. Right now you sound like you are more worried about the company and your coworkers than yourself and your family. That’s not particularly healthy. You are working so much right now and are so fatigued that critica...
by thx1138
Sun Mar 21, 2021 7:35 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: The wash sale rules can't possibly be THIS antagonistic
Replies: 140
Views: 13272

Re: The wash sale rules can't possibly be THIS antagonistic

They are that antagonistic:
Does the Rule Apply to IRAs?

In 2008, the IRS issued "Revenue Ruling 2008-5," in which it addressed the question of whether the wash-sale rules apply to IRAs. In the ruling, the IRS explained that when shares are sold in a non-retirement account and substantially identical shares are purchased in an IRA within 30 days, the investor cannot claim tax losses for the sale, and the basis in the individual's IRA is not increased.
Source: https://www.investopedia.com/articles/r ... e-rule.asp
by thx1138
Wed Mar 10, 2021 9:41 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: An incredible New error TurboTax for the back door Roth.
Replies: 20
Views: 3351

Re: An incredible New error TurboTax for the back door Roth.

stan1 wrote: Wed Mar 10, 2021 3:39 pm I think this has been a long standing issue of confusion. If there is zero basis in the Traditional IRA at the end of the year as a result of the a contribution then conversion TT does not produce a Form 8606. I believe some people feel it is necessary but TT does not.
No that’s not the case here. Form 8606 instructions are explicit that you must file 8606 if you make any non-deductible contributions or if you convert to Roth. Those two filing conditions are separate from the need to file if you have a non-zero traditional basis after a distribution.

For the OP the real question is what actually got filed. Is just the PDF wrong or is what got e-filed also wrong?
by thx1138
Tue Mar 02, 2021 9:31 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Fixing Backdoor Roth Conversion not performed in the same year
Replies: 16
Views: 1474

Re: Fixing Backdoor Roth Conversion not performed in the same year

As cas said first by whatever means possible see if you can track down what your statements show actually happened just in case M1 customer support is in error about what happened. Right now it sounds as if they are saying all that ever happened was that you contributed to a Roth IRA and nothing further actually occurred. And they've given you the forms for that which just show a Roth IRA contribution in 2019 and nothing else occurring. Now, if in fact all that happened was you contributed to the Roth IRA in 2019 then I think this is roughly what needs to happen: 1. You need to amend your 2019 taxes to correct the 8606 to show you actually contributed to a Roth IRA and not a traditional IRA. 2. You need to amend your 2019 taxes to add form ...
by thx1138
Thu Feb 25, 2021 5:42 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: I think the calculation for AMT in Turbotax for 2020 is wrong...
Replies: 5
Views: 874

Re: I think the calculation for AMT in Turbotax for 2020 is wrong...

fire_dave wrote: Wed Feb 24, 2021 10:54 pm I do have a huge amount of capital gains this year over the W2 income which I thought were always a trigger for the AMT.
The primary mechanism by which large capital gains can trigger AMT is if they are so large that they put your total income above the AMT exemption phase out threshold. In that case your capital gains are still taxed at favorable rates but the loss of the AMT exemption still raises your AMT due relative to the standard tax calculation.

For MFJ the phaseout threshold is just over $1M so does not apply in your case which is why you aren’t seeing any AMT.

In the past the phaseout started at much, much lower income levels (about $160k) which is probably where your expectation of an AMT impact came from.
by thx1138
Sat Feb 20, 2021 10:00 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Fixing Backdoor Roth Conversion not performed in the same year
Replies: 16
Views: 1474

Re: Fixing Backdoor Roth Conversion not performed in the same year

Putting aside the conversion step for a moment and looking back at the initial recharacterization step, since OP seems sure that the proper "recharacterization" word was used there... Shouldn't a 1099-R with Box 7 Code R have been issued in early 2021 for a recharacterization done in 2020 (for a 2019 Roth contribution)? Like in this post " Recharacterization Confusion " from February 2021. Or from the 2020 1099-R instructions (for the custodian) for the Codes in Box 7: Use Code R for a recharacterization of an IRA contribution made for 2019 and recharacterized in 2020 to another type of IRA by a trustee-to-trustee transfer or with the same trustee. Wouldn't a missing 2020 1099-R for the recharacterization step mean one ...
by thx1138
Fri Feb 19, 2021 7:26 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: E-filing form 1116 [FreeTaxUSA]
Replies: 122
Views: 15540

Re: Can't E-file form 1116

ClevrChico wrote: Fri Feb 19, 2021 5:57 pm
My money is on FreeTaxUSA being correct and compliant.
Hmmm... And yet if you Google this more than one person on more than one website is reporting this problem with FreeTaxUSA and yet not a peep anywhere from anyplace about this being an issue with TurboTax despite its vastly larger user base.

It's hard to prove a negative, as it were, but statistically it sure seems like FreeTaxUSA is the one doing it wrong most likely...
by thx1138
Fri Feb 19, 2021 9:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So what's the real electricity cost of Bitcoin?
Replies: 25
Views: 2882

Re: So what's the real electricity cost of Bitcoin?

Here in California they are talking about banning new natural gas homes, so home heating would have to be electric. That means running power through otherwise useless resistors. You use an efficient heat pump, not direct electric heating of course. California is mostly climate zone 3 where heat pumps in fact cost less to operate than a natural gas furnace. Right, but the I 2 R loss for electricity in transmission lines is on the order of 50%. Gas is essentially lossless (apart from the energy to pump it through the pipes -- still not going to be anything in the range of electricity transmission line loss). Anyway, bitcoin. Transmission and distribution losses are about 5%: https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=105&t=3
by thx1138
Fri Feb 19, 2021 5:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So what's the real electricity cost of Bitcoin?
Replies: 25
Views: 2882

Re: So what's the real electricity cost of Bitcoin?

dmcmahon wrote: Thu Feb 18, 2021 10:06 pm Here in California they are talking about banning new natural gas homes, so home heating would have to be electric. That means running power through otherwise useless resistors.
You use an efficient heat pump, not direct electric heating of course. California is mostly climate zone 3 where heat pumps in fact cost less to operate than a natural gas furnace.
by thx1138
Thu Feb 18, 2021 8:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So what's the real electricity cost of Bitcoin?
Replies: 25
Views: 2882

Re: So what's the real electricity cost of Bitcoin?

This from Nov 2020:

https://www.statista.com/statistics/881 ... ison-visa/

Says 741 kWh for a single Bitcoin transaction. Average monthly household consumption is 900 kWh so that jives with the article.

Also the above estimates 149 kWh for 100,000 Visa transactions.

Yes, Bitcoin is stupid. This is nothing new. The levels of stupid are multitudinous.
by thx1138
Wed Feb 17, 2021 11:49 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: E-filing form 1116 [FreeTaxUSA]
Replies: 122
Views: 15540

Re: Can't E-file form 1116

FWIW the IRS Free Fillable Forms online E-File application does in fact support filling an 1116 with two limitations:
Part II column (l) will not accept "909 TAXES" or "1099 TAXES" in lieu of a date. Additionally, you cannot write in the words "DIVIDENDS" and "WAGES" on Part I line 1(a) or "LSD" on line 24.

An AMT version of this form is not available. All copies if Form 1116 will transfer line 30 to Form 1040 line 48.
Source: https://www.irs.gov/e-file-providers/li ... able-forms

I don’t need a 1116 so I can’t verify if it is actually accepted when formally filed.
by thx1138
Tue Feb 16, 2021 5:40 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Consolidated 1099 Div From Vanguard Help
Replies: 6
Views: 693

Re: Consolidated 1099 Div From Vanguard Help

Some details from Vanguard on reporting for covered and uncovered shares:

https://investor.vanguard.com/taxes/cos ... noncovered

Basically if you have older shares they are not responsible for reporting their basis to the IRS but you will report the basis yourself on your return and thus end up with the loss you expected.
by thx1138
Sun Feb 14, 2021 8:00 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: COVID stimulus payments and tax returns . . .
Replies: 12
Views: 1694

Re: COVID stimulus payments and tax returns . . .

Why if you received it in 2021 would you report on your 2020. Nitpicking, but stock dividends are a good example of income that may need to be reported in the tax year prior to their actual payment. The date of record determines what year a dividend is taxable in while actual payment of the dividend is often a month later. So it is quite common for dividends that are paid to you in the month of January to actually be taxed in the previous year. The timing of the well known S&P500 ETF SPY has had that kind of schedule for a number of years now. Holds up the 1099-DIV til mid February for anyone that owns it. Anyway, to the OP’s question as others said they aren’t taxable but if you didn’t get the full payments and your AGI has gone down ...
by thx1138
Mon Feb 08, 2021 5:23 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How do you stay the course?
Replies: 79
Views: 8030

Re: How do you stay the course?

Pick random dates from the past and read the financial news of that time. Absorb the doom and gloom as well as the hand wringing about overvalued stocks or unreasonably low interest rates. Then go look at what actually happened in the market after those stories were written. For more recent times you will find Larry Swedroe’s annual “Sure Things” articles a good read. Over the year he evaluates what the financial press is all abuzz about at the start of the year against what actually happens. Think about all the horrible things that actually happen and how the market often shrugs them off (Brexit, Chinese Trade War, COVID) and think about the actual market crashes that come seemingly from nowhere. Again, past news will help you get a sense ...
by thx1138
Sun Feb 07, 2021 1:34 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Looking for tax advice to mitigate huge short term capital gains
Replies: 35
Views: 3663

Re: Looking for tax advice to mitigate huge short term capitol gains

Congratulations on your windfall! Others more knowledgeable than me will undoubtedly be along in good time to help, but until then... You really can’t put the short term capital gain genie back in the bottle. You can’t avoid the taxes, at best you might defer a small amount to a later year when your marginal tax rate might be lower. Basically any additional income you make this year will be taxed at the highest bracket as your short term gain has occupied the lower brackets and then some. Thus if you have any sort of income you can defer into the next year you might do that. But don’t let the tax tail wag the dog - don’t forgo income if it is there for the taking now and at risk later. As to having a fancy pants accountant or tax adviser tr...
by thx1138
Tue Feb 02, 2021 11:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [GameStop GME trading mega-thread]
Replies: 5086
Views: 396942

Re: [GameStop GME trading mega-thread]

arcticpineapplecorp. wrote: Tue Feb 02, 2021 11:00 am amazing that people feel they need to learn "the hard way" when people are here to show you the way...for free.
You must never have parented a teenager :wink:

I keep chuckling at myself when I occasionally look at the GME quotes because I keep getting confused by the share price and the share price change as they are about the same and occasionally swapping which is greater than the other.
by thx1138
Tue Feb 02, 2021 4:51 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Does anyone still file fed taxes by mail? Why?
Replies: 103
Views: 8360

Re: Does anyone still file fed taxes by mail? Why?

tomsense76 wrote: Tue Feb 02, 2021 2:36 am Why did I do this? I really hate giving out information about my accounts if I can avoid it. Filing by mail I can just put a check in the envelope and move on. E-File someone needs a routing number and it often needs to be entered in a 3rd party's website, which I don't like.
You can e-file the return and still pay by mail directly to the IRS or get a physical check from them if you have a refund. Electronic payment is a separate choice from electronic filing.
by thx1138
Mon Feb 01, 2021 1:17 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Does anyone still file fed taxes by mail? Why?
Replies: 103
Views: 8360

Re: Does anyone still file fed taxes by mail? Why?

AnEngineer wrote: Mon Feb 01, 2021 12:54 pm
That 1% error is amazingly high. You pay for tax software and still get errors at that rate?
It’s software, not magic. If you enter a number from a paper 1099 wrong it can’t check that. If you answer a question wrong how is it going to check that? The 1% isn’t the software making an error, it is the user making an error.

Move to paper and now you depend on the user understanding the form, the instructions and not making calculation errors. So naturally the error rate is vastly higher with paper.

But software is still subject to “garbage in garbage out” problems caused by the user.
by thx1138
Mon Feb 01, 2021 11:39 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is it me or a lot of 2020 tax forms late this year?
Replies: 44
Views: 5763

Re: Is it me or a lot of 2020 tax forms late this year?

jebmke wrote: Mon Feb 01, 2021 9:48 am
thx1138 wrote: Mon Feb 01, 2021 9:31 am IRS delayed the entire tax filing season until 2/13 because of the very late COVID release bill in December. So even if you got forms by 2/1 you wouldn’t be able to file. Presumably the deadlines for providing forms moved as well.
I don't think the dates for forms has changed.
Yep, I think you are correct. I had a consolidated 1099 from a brokerage change it’s availability date to mid-Feb a few weeks ago but that appears entirely unrelated. Looks like the various due dates are the same for most 1099 stuff which makes sense since none of that information should have been affected by the COVID relief bill.
by thx1138
Mon Feb 01, 2021 11:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [GameStop GME trading mega-thread]
Replies: 5086
Views: 396942

Re: [GameStop GME trading mega-thread]

Pu239 wrote: Mon Feb 01, 2021 11:19 am
jhawktx wrote: Mon Feb 01, 2021 9:03 am Things are going backwards today on the way to the moon.
I'm not sure if I'm watching Apollo 11 or Apollo 13. Either way, it's gripping.
WSB thought they had the hedge funds riding on Challenger. WSB is likely to soon discover that it’s actually they who are riding on Columbia.
by thx1138
Mon Feb 01, 2021 9:31 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is it me or a lot of 2020 tax forms late this year?
Replies: 44
Views: 5763

Re: Is it me or a lot of 2020 tax forms late this year?

IRS delayed the entire tax filing season until 2/13 because of the very late COVID release bill in December. So even if you got forms by 2/1 you wouldn’t be able to file. Presumably the deadlines for providing forms moved as well.
by thx1138
Mon Feb 01, 2021 6:50 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Home buying marathon
Replies: 43
Views: 5392

Re: Home buying marathon

I would be wary of betting that VHCOL areas are going to hold their value; especially with layoffs, corporate relocations, and increased use of work from home. I personally don't treat buying a house as an investment. We prefer to spend a bit more on a SFH that appreciates better. These two statements are incompatible. Not at all. Just because something goes up in value doesn’t necessarily make it an investment. Housing you live in is consumption not investment. When you buy a bigger house you are not investing more, you are consuming more. Your taxes, maintenance costs and imputed rent go up the more house you consume. This is a critical distinction because there is a whole group of people out there (realtors, mortgage brokers) that posit...
by thx1138
Sun Jan 31, 2021 6:13 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Home buying marathon
Replies: 43
Views: 5392

Re: Home buying marathon

This is an extremely weird time in the housing market. The high prices are not driven by speculators as in some past bubbles but the pandemic has created much more demand than supply especially for SFH. That will of course adjust over time but is that a year? Two years? Transaction costs on houses, especially in VHCOL, are just insane. If you make the wrong rushed decision and have to move that’s probably a $100k lost at least. That’s a lot of rent... Plus risk of the market being less hot when you sell (how many people are going to exit VHCOL areas in the new virtual work reality). I’d lean towards renting something more like you think you want to buy if that’s an option just to make sure you know what and where you want to be. You can pro...
by thx1138
Sun Jan 31, 2021 2:30 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Quality Of Life Change After Transitioning To Part Time?
Replies: 28
Views: 2283

Re: Quality Of Life Change After Transitioning To Part Time?

I transitioned to a reduced work schedule awhile back and I absolutely love it. But it did take a little figuring out and as usual what you expect in advance wasn't exactly what occurred. For me I went to 20 hrs initially as we were temporarily relocating for a year and I wanted to take advantage of the new surroundings. This proved to be a bit of an abrupt change that I wasn't ready for - I could begin to understand the troubles of folks who go from 40+ to zero on retirement. I really felt like I was "wasting" a fair bit of that new found time. That is to say some of the extra time really seemed to have a positive impact such as walking everywhere, having a very slow breakfast while reading a book, taking over a lot of the routin...
by thx1138
Sun Jan 31, 2021 8:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [GameStop GME trading mega-thread]
Replies: 5086
Views: 396942

Re: [GameStop GME trading mega-thread]

So yeah, I bought some GME because it represents a giant middle finger to all the powers-that-be that have financially and emotionally exhausted my generation over the last 10-20 years. I will hold it until the end of this. 💎 If you “hold until the end of this” all you will be doing is giving your money to the very people you seem to think you are giving a “giant middle finger to”. The “end” is GME back at a price in the single digits. The GME run up may have burned some HF hands but there are of course plenty of other HF and WS investors now better positioned to take advantage of the inevitable fall. They are the ones standing in the skyscraper windows smugly looking down at the emotional crowd below them just like in Occupy Wall Street d...
by thx1138
Fri Jan 29, 2021 7:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [GameStop GME trading mega-thread]
Replies: 5086
Views: 396942

Re: [GameStop GME trading mega-thread]

Interesting take. Ironically perhaps, a lot of the people most outraged at Robinhood have expressed the opinion that "I'm an adult, and you have no right to restrict what risk I choose to assume with my money". So they'd probably take issue with your point! Yep, I’m sure you are right. Which again goes to the “just enough knowledge to be dangerous to themselves” as they think they understand a short squeeze but at the same time don’t understand the settlement process so they naively frame it as “you have no right to protect me from myself” when in fact what was actually happening was clearinghouses exercising their right to protect themselves from the credit risk associated with T+2 settlement on a volatile security. I mean it is...
by thx1138
Fri Jan 29, 2021 7:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [GameStop GME trading mega-thread]
Replies: 5086
Views: 396942

Re: [GameStop GME trading mega-thread]

Interesting take. Ironically perhaps, a lot of the people most outraged at Robinhood have expressed the opinion that "I'm an adult, and you have no right to restrict what risk I choose to assume with my money". So they'd probably take issue with your point! Yep, I’m sure you are right. Which again goes to the “just enough knowledge to be dangerous to themselves” as they think they understand a short squeeze but at the same time don’t understand the settlement process so they naively frame it as “you have no right to protect me from myself” when in fact what was actually happening was clearinghouses exercising their right to protect themselves from the credit risk associated with T+2 settlement on a volatile security. I mean it is...
by thx1138
Fri Jan 29, 2021 6:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [GameStop GME trading mega-thread]
Replies: 5086
Views: 396942

Re: [GameStop GME trading mega-thread]

Robinhood does deserve quite a bit of the wrath targeted at it, but not because of the trading restrictions. It is such a predictable outcome - the wrath directed at Robinhood. If you provide access to complicated and downright dangerous financial instruments via an app designed to mimic a video game while heavily marketing to people who barely understand how a checking account works much rather margin and settlement you really, really, really should expect you'll eventually get serious backlash from your users when they hurt themselves through their own ignorance. A lot of the WSB crowd falls well into the "just enough knowledge to be dangerous to themselves". It is sort of silly when the same user is sagely posting about a &quo...
by thx1138
Fri Jan 29, 2021 1:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.
Replies: 1439
Views: 157472

Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Even though nigel_ht is now saying people should have seen the obvious and gone defensive, there wasn't a single word about doing that in postings made in January and February, until February 26th. Yes, and there is this amusing response from one of your exchanges back in April: Lol. Right. Let's chat again in a year and see. Well, to be fair in isn't April yet and I suppose all the vaccines could suddenly stop working or the Fed suddenly decide to jack interest rates but once again Mr. Obvious seems to be a one trick pony on predicting things. Or as the posting history shows "predicting" things after they've already happened. Pretty good at building narratives after the fact, but that's a very common skill. We’re better off on v...
by thx1138
Fri Jan 29, 2021 12:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.
Replies: 1439
Views: 157472

Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Even though nigel_ht is now saying people should have seen the obvious and gone defensive, there wasn't a single word about doing that in postings made in January and February, until February 26th. Yes, and there is this amusing response from one of your exchanges back in April: By the way, this is in no way a "black swan". There have been pandemics before, and there likely will be in the future. Lol. Right. Let's chat again in a year and see. Well, to be fair in isn't April yet and I suppose all the vaccines could suddenly stop working or the Fed suddenly decide to jack interest rates but once again Mr. Obvious seems to be a one trick pony on predicting things. Or as the posting history shows "predicting" things after ...
by thx1138
Fri Jan 29, 2021 11:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.
Replies: 1439
Views: 157472

Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Even though nigel_ht is now saying people should have seen the obvious and gone defensive, there wasn't a single word about doing that in postings made in January and February, until February 26th. Yes, and there is this amusing response from one of your exchanges back in April: By the way, this is in no way a "black swan". There have been pandemics before, and there likely will be in the future. Lol. Right. Let's chat again in a year and see. Well, to be fair in isn't April yet and I suppose all the vaccines could suddenly stop working or the Fed suddenly decide to jack interest rates but once again Mr. Obvious seems to be a one trick pony on predicting things. Or as the posting history shows "predicting" things after ...
by thx1138
Fri Jan 29, 2021 12:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.
Replies: 1439
Views: 157472

Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

There is no "in retrospect"...it was absolutely obvious at the time the PRC made those announcements on Jan 23 that there would be significant global economic and health impacts because nobody craters their economy on a "well, maybe covid MIGHT be bad..." assessment. The part you are missing here is whether global economic and health impacts actually result in a market decline or what the degree of decline is. Reread the thread. Many folks made other “obvious” predictions about the health and economic impacts during March. It turned out their predictions were actually wildly optimistic - the economic and health impacts have ended up far worse than even their worst case predictions at that time. Vastly more people have d...
by thx1138
Thu Jan 28, 2021 11:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.
Replies: 1439
Views: 157472

Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

There is no "in retrospect"...it was absolutely obvious at the time the PRC made those announcements on Jan 23 that there would be significant global economic and health impacts because nobody craters their economy on a "well, maybe covid MIGHT be bad..." assessment. The part you are missing here is whether global economic and health impacts actually result in a market decline or what the degree of decline is. Reread the thread. Many folks made other “obvious” predictions about the health and economic impacts during March. It turned out their predictions were actually wildly optimistic - the economic and health impacts have ended up far worse than even their worst case predictions at that time. Vastly more people have d...
by thx1138
Tue Jun 23, 2020 9:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Malkiel weighs in on passive investing and alternatives to the 60/40...
Replies: 39
Views: 5736

Re: Malkiel weighs in on passive investing and alternatives to the 60/40...

Seems like ridiculous yield chasing advice, but what do I know really? Still. He’s concerned about inflation. If only there were some safe bond like instrument that was indexed for inflation... No, nothing like that exists I guess so off to any of the standard yield chasing bond substitutes that have burnt people in the past. :? He’s concerned about the low returns in bonds in general and so it is off to the sub-junk, covenant-non-existent land of poorly understood risks in preferred stock. Whatever happened to the view of “total return” of the portfolio instead of trying to juice components of it to the point they aren’t even doing the job they are suppose to do? Switch to TIPS if worried about inflation and increase the stock AA to offset...
by thx1138
Sat Jun 20, 2020 11:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wirecard scandal / Germany's Enron
Replies: 21
Views: 3133

Re: Wirecard scandal / Germany's Enron

Well of course, VGTSX is the largest international index fund in the world. (And the 11th largest mutual fund overall). If they didn’t own that much they wouldn’t be an “index fund”. So that implies they own 1.5% of all ex-US, right? Roughly speaking yes. For instance they hold: 1.5% of SIE.DE (Siemens on the German exchange) 1.6% of LLOY.L (Lloyds on the London exchange) 1.2% of 7203.T (Toyota on the Japanese exchange) There's a whole science to tracking an index without owning every single stock in the index at the exact percentage of their capitalization. So out of smaller stocks some might not even be in the index fund while others are overweight to make up for that. It seems like for stocks that have a very large percentage of the mar...
by thx1138
Fri Jun 19, 2020 10:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wirecard scandal / Germany's Enron
Replies: 21
Views: 3133

Re: Wirecard scandal / Germany's Enron

Quercus Palustris wrote: Fri Jun 19, 2020 4:24 pm 2nd largest mutual fund holder of WDI.DE is Vanguard Total International (VGTSX), at 1.51% :(
Well of course, VGTSX is the largest international index fund in the world. (And the 11th largest mutual fund overall). If they didn’t own that much they wouldn’t be an “index fund”.
by thx1138
Tue Jun 16, 2020 7:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 36221
Views: 4653259

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

RayKeynes wrote: Tue Jun 16, 2020 7:16 amThe commonly accepted definition of a bull market is when stock prices rise by 20% after two declines of 20% each.

We did not have the second downfall yet. Thus - by definition - we are not yet in a new bull market. Just to be correct definitin-wise. We are still in a bear market or let's call it "transition phasis".
I have never seen this definition of a bull market and a Google search produces no results in the first few pages either. Doesn’t seem “commonly accepted” at all. Do you have a reference?

I do see some definitions calling the rising period between two 20% declines a bull market but nothing saying a bull market starts after two consecutive 20% declines.
by thx1138
Mon Jun 15, 2020 6:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Hertz (bankrupt) may issue new stock
Replies: 80
Views: 8683

Re: Hertz (bankrupt) may issue new stock

jhsu802701 wrote: Mon Jun 15, 2020 6:30 pm Why, oh, why are people piling into Hertz stock instead of my favorite international stock ETFs like MOTI, DGRE, DFJ, DGS, IQIN, GWX, and FNDC?

MOTI and DGRE specialize in high quality stocks. The others are diversified plain vanilla stock funds. Hertz may go out of business. Developed markets as a whole, emerging markets as a whole, and Japan as a whole will NOT go out of business.
Don’t complain, every moron buying Hertz instead of those ETFs is keeping the ETF prices lower so you can buy more for less!
by thx1138
Sun Jun 14, 2020 8:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Worst Worst Case
Replies: 4
Views: 2090

Re: The Worst Worst Case

Does Vanguard? Look at the prospectus for the particular fund you are interested in to find out. What safeguards are in place for our investments if something like this article describes affects Vanguard and other companies? It wouldn't affect Vanguard the company at all since Vanguard isn't a bank. It might affect a Vanguard fund if said fund actually invested in a CLO that had trouble. If said CLO had trouble then it would stop paying the fund interest and that would lower the return of the fund that owned it. Also that particular CLO might end up with little value on the market so the NAV of the fund would drop as well. Really no different than if a corporate bond were to go into default, something that happens all the time. Be sure to ...
by thx1138
Sun Jun 14, 2020 12:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Forbes: Do Day Traders Drive The Market Now?
Replies: 13
Views: 1240

Re: Forbes: Do Day Traders Drive The Market Now?

The article contained no actual information to answer the question that I could find. And that title has nothing to do with anything in the article, though that isn't unusual as typically an editor trying to attract clicks makes the title and not the author.

Waste of bandwidth...
by thx1138
Sun Jun 14, 2020 11:09 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Slide-in pickup campers
Replies: 33
Views: 3167

Re: Slide-in pickup campers

Sandtrap covered nearly every point I know about slide-ins already. I would add though to consider carefully whether a slide-in is really what you want. Once you eliminate pop-ups you are now relegated to having a large, unwieldy vehicle that is mostly restricted to well paved or graded roads with adequate vertical clearance. This is of course completely fine for many types of road trips and camping. If, however, you ever want to take day trips in an area on less developed roads you are potentially out of luck. If you want to do that kind of exploring and don't want the comfort compromises of a pop-up then you may want to look at a trailer instead. This gives you the option of leaving the trailer in camp while you take the tow vehicle out e...
by thx1138
Sat Jun 13, 2020 2:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Hertz (bankrupt) may issue new stock
Replies: 80
Views: 8683

Re: Hertz (bankrupt) may issue new stock

because the value of their collateral (rental cars) has increased Thanks for the explanation, better than anything the media has put out. But I don't understand how there could reasonably be a scenario where the value of a rental fleet increases during the bankruptcy period - don't cars depreciate over time? Even with less wear and tear from driving, there will be newer models rolling out annually. The value of the rental fleet is dependent upon used car prices & these vary by more than the depreciation. Packer Interesting. I would have thought used cars only decreased in price intuitively (other than collectibles). Maybe in a severe recession but that presumably hits Hertz's business model worse than any gain on used car prices. In no...
by thx1138
Sat Jun 13, 2020 9:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The “Abandon Bonds” strategy
Replies: 259
Views: 36229

Re: The “Abandon Bonds” strategy

Individual investors do have access to FDIC insured accounts and certificates that often provide higher yields with zero duration than bonds available to institutional investors with much longer durations. It is certainly a viable alternative at times and one pretty common with Bogleheads.

Similarly skipping corporate bonds altogether and only using FDIC insured accounts/certificates and Treasuries combined with a somewhat higher equity allocation is a fairly common Boglehead approach as well.

So this approach seems like something quite a few Bogleheads have already been doing for years.
by thx1138
Fri Jun 12, 2020 7:32 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: So Are Home Renovations Worth It (Financially) Or Not?
Replies: 105
Views: 11088

Re: So Are Home Renovations Worth It (Financially) Or Not?

New Providence wrote: Fri Jun 12, 2020 7:13 am
If I don't use my money to improve my family's quality of life by living in an updated, beautiful home; then what's the point of money?
You could have used the money to spend more time with them instead? But indeed some families’ quality of life is improved by spending less time with certain family members...
by thx1138
Thu Jun 11, 2020 7:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.
Replies: 1439
Views: 157472

Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Ah, semi-glad this thread bumped again. Was going to post a few weeks ago with a semi-mea-culpa but didn't want to bump it just for that. On the very first page of this thread I tell the OP to ignore the news and stay the course. I also do wish them good luck and suggest while I didn't agree with the trade that really worst case very unlikely to be much damage being out of the market for a month or two at that point. Also as they were only going 75/25 to 50/50 it wasn't a huge trade really either. But still, objected to it on principle. There's always some reason to get out of the market and if you traded on every one of them you wouldn't be in the market enough. Well amusingly enough about a month ago after the market had run back up again...
by thx1138
Wed Jun 10, 2020 6:01 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
Replies: 29
Views: 11737

Re: Perpetual Withdrawal Rate

Oh and this gets close to your answer without having to run the google sheet yourself: https://earlyretirementnowdotcom.files.wordpress.com/2016/11/swr-part1-table1.png Figure came from: https://earlyretirementnow.com/2016/12/07/the-ultimate-guide-to-safe-withdrawal-rates-part-1-intro/ I realize that this is a 2 year old thread but so grateful to read this. I just want to make sure I am understanding the chart above correctly (not the smartest knife in the drawer, unfortunately). If we have our assets in 100% stocks, after 60 years, at the rate of withdrawal of 5%, and NO ADDITIONAL CONTRIBUTIONS, there'd still be about 70% of the portfolio left *untouched / unused*? Did I understand this right? Nope, that’s not correct. What the chart is ...
by thx1138
Thu May 28, 2020 8:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Sitting on a bunch of cash; what to do with it if I believe we're headed for SPX 1800 and protracted recession?
Replies: 213
Views: 27422

Re: Sitting on a bunch of cash; what to do with it if I believe we're headed for SPX 1800 and protracted recession?

Do you hope your house burns down because you “bet” on it by purchasing insurance? Insurance in the stock market is having some of your money in bonds, all the time, just in case a crash happens. Going mostly cash because you think a crash is going to happen soon isn't insurance, that's a bet. If one could MAKE money from fire insurance, spending a ton more than usual on fire insurance absolutely does mean a part of you is kind of hoping your house burns down. I have no idea how Covid 19 will play out, or how the market will react to it. But, I am sure glad that by simply staying with my investment plan I am not put in a position to be cheering for the deaths of many thousands of people and the resulting economic devastation. Thinking that...
by thx1138
Thu May 28, 2020 5:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Sitting on a bunch of cash; what to do with it if I believe we're headed for SPX 1800 and protracted recession?
Replies: 213
Views: 27422

Re: Sitting on a bunch of cash; what to do with it if I believe we're headed for SPX 1800 and protracted recession?

Care to point out how many lows have been retraced after coming back this much? Let me save you some time: exactly zero* . *Note: Some claim 2007 retraced the 2000 lows, but this is really reaching as it was clearly a fresh bull (7 year gap). If you are going to sit on the sidelines for almost a decade to see if we retest... good luck with that. It'll be interesting to see who is correct. I notice that there are reports of China preparing for a second wave. That's simply prudent but it does mean fewer PPE exports for the rest of the world. It also implies that if a second wave happens China may respond aggressively leading to a 2nd wave of supply chain disruptions. I have no idea how Covid 19 will play out, or how the market will react to ...