Search found 918 matches

by thx1138
Sat Jun 22, 2019 9:51 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Losing a job in your 50's...
Replies: 390
Views: 46366

Re: Losing a job in your 50's...

Technical staff can work for a long time if they have the passion for it. Dream on. How many 50 or even 40 year olds do you think make it into interviews by a twentysomething let alone survive the interview. You are conflating two things that aren’t actually linked. Indeed if in your 50s you are do...
by thx1138
Fri Jun 21, 2019 5:06 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How much is your guys’ fees for your 401k?
Replies: 96
Views: 4801

Re: How much is your guys’ fees for your 401k?

$17.50/qtr. Realize of course in many cases if you “aren’t paying anything” you may actually be doing so via slightly higher ERs on funds in the plan. Or in some cases you really aren’t directly paying within the 401k but effectively you are paying somewhere else in salary/benefits. At the small siz...
by thx1138
Fri Jun 21, 2019 5:38 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Why are you NOT buying rental properties?
Replies: 522
Views: 42873

Re: Why are you NOT buying rental properties?

I don't understand why margin calls are different than a home loan, but I never tried to buy stocks on margin. For a mortgage all you have to do is make your monthly payment. If the value of your home drops 50% nothing changes about your mortgage as long as you keep paying it. You don’t need to put...
by thx1138
Thu Jun 20, 2019 4:05 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Umbrella policy went up 166%
Replies: 34
Views: 3339

Re: Umbrella policy went up 166%

Yeah, male 16 year old driver did it. Doubling or more is about right actually. The likelihood of huge claim just jumped way, way up. Sure it still isn’t a huge probability overall but it is a small probability that is still much, much higher than the probability before the kid was driving. Fatal ac...
by thx1138
Wed Jun 19, 2019 10:47 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Getting my own Chase Sapphire Reserve or added as authorized user?
Replies: 23
Views: 1799

Re: Getting my own Chase Sapphire Reserve or added as authorized user?

The Priority Pass access is not particularly useful. Most of them are in international terminals and so inconvenient or in some cases impossible to get to from domestic terminals. The more easy to get to ones are not surprisingly overrun because so many people have these cards. It sounds like your s...
by thx1138
Tue Jun 18, 2019 2:07 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Any way to get out of daycare 6 week notice?
Replies: 32
Views: 2736

Re: Any way to get out of daycare 6 week notice?

No lawyer here - but, while you may have agreed to six week notice, is there any stated fee or penalty stated if you do not do so? Neither an expert on 11 month olds, but maybe a few more weeks there might not be that bad. Also, read the next agreement! :oops: It says only "If you decide to discont...
by thx1138
Tue Jun 18, 2019 1:59 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Waiting to prepay mortgage until you can pay the whole thing off?
Replies: 28
Views: 3234

Re: Waiting to prepay mortgage until you can pay the whole thing off?

One risk factor not listed yet is that in a severe crisis like 2008-9 the banks foreclose on the properties with the lowest LTV ratio first. This is because they know they will get their money back on those properties. This created some perverse situations in the crisis where someone with a 50% LTV ...
by thx1138
Mon Jun 17, 2019 12:43 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: With hindsight, what signs indicated you were about to lose your job?
Replies: 127
Views: 11293

Re: With hindsight, what signs indicated you were about to lose your job?

A common one in the defense industry is to be put onto a contract that is ending soon. That's generally how the large defense primes clean house. Transfer low performers to a contract about to end and then when it is over tell them they need to look for a new program to join or they'll be out in a f...
by thx1138
Mon Jun 17, 2019 12:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: are TIPS expensive? or are they cheap?
Replies: 119
Views: 9341

Re: are TIPS expensive? or are they cheap?

Article in WSJ today on market based inflation estimates probably misfiring in Europe and the UK: https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-markets-inflation-expectations-arent-making-sense-11560508678 Usual paywall stuff to deal with. Basically another version of what happened in the GFC where TIPS weren't ...
by thx1138
Sun Jun 16, 2019 6:53 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Teaching a 4 Year old donating with quarters
Replies: 13
Views: 1179

Re: Teaching a 4 Year old donating with quarters

Zoos, aquariums and museums that kids are likely to be at usually have various small donation collection points for various conservation causes. Sometimes they are a little pretend parking meter next to particular exhibits or as mentioned up thread one of those visually enticing vortex coin collecto...
by thx1138
Sat Jun 15, 2019 9:52 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Do not use Personal Capital
Replies: 100
Views: 15453

Re: Do not use Personal Capital

I could go more into P2P and IPSec and VPN and so on and on but it would make your head spin. There is no such a thing as read-only credentials. Sure there are. Trip-It has viewer only access for some trips. Vanguard itself has account links in which spouses can view but not trade in the other acco...
by thx1138
Sat Jun 15, 2019 7:49 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Do not use Personal Capital
Replies: 100
Views: 15453

Re: Do not use Personal Capital

I could go more into P2P and IPSec and VPN and so on and on but it would make your head spin. There is no such a thing as read-only credentials. Sure there are. Trip-It has viewer only access for some trips. Vanguard itself has account links in which spouses can view but not trade in the other acco...
by thx1138
Sat Jun 15, 2019 9:46 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: At what net worth/ income level would you put your kids in private school?
Replies: 23
Views: 1463

Re: At what net worth/ income level would you put your kids in private school?

I don't think it really depends that much on your income level. It is more down to the particular school district (or options of districts if you have the flexibility to move) and the specific child. Many public schools are as good as or in some cases better for a particular child than private optio...
by thx1138
Sat Jun 15, 2019 9:33 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Should I call it quits?
Replies: 23
Views: 4801

Re: Should I call it quits?

3) People sometimes focus on having a stay at home parent when they have young kids but in some ways it can be just as important when the kids are older. There are lots of options for day care and after school care for young kids but very few for teenagers and teenagers can get into a lot more trou...
by thx1138
Sat Jun 15, 2019 9:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How have your homes as investments done?
Replies: 213
Views: 21504

Re: How have your homes as investments done?

We’ve done OK. First house bought in late 2004 and sold in early 2008 just before the market flopped. That’s a real short time to own a house as far as transaction costs go but there was a huge real estate run up over that time so we came out OK. Factoring in all costs it meant we effectively paid l...
by thx1138
Sat Jun 15, 2019 8:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How have your homes as investments done?
Replies: 213
Views: 21504

Re: How have your homes as investments done?

Buy and hold has been outstanding. Value up ~600% since 1991 purchase. Taxes and insurance combined are 0.60%. I credit luck and DW. She saw the potential in the mostly boarded up (at the time) authentic late 1800's Old Town within easy walking/biking distance as something that would revitalize our...
by thx1138
Fri Jun 14, 2019 7:12 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Should I call it quits?
Replies: 23
Views: 4801

Re: Should I call it quits?

Maybe ease into it? A few years after our kid showed up I went half time for a year while we were in a different location for a year. It was actually “too much” time off right away. But it was life changing to not be full time. Once we were back in our home state I went to 3/4 time and have been doi...
by thx1138
Fri Jun 14, 2019 6:45 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Article on high deductible health plans - and the math
Replies: 118
Views: 8223

Re: Article on high deductible health plans - and the math

Replace pension with 401k that requires workers to save on their own leads to similar places as replace low deductible plan with high deductible insurance with an HSA that requires workers to save on their own... For the average BH it is probably mostly a wash where for different folks one option mi...
by thx1138
Fri Jun 07, 2019 8:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The logical fallacy behind "Bonds Are For Safety"
Replies: 248
Views: 15448

Re: The logical fallacy behind "Bonds Are For Safety"

In fact, in the most common use I've seen of "bonds are for safety" has been to remind people not to chase yield. But they do chase yield. Why do people buy TBM instead of intermediate term Treasuries? To chase yield. Why do people hold nominal bonds instead of TIPS? Because they're chasing yield. ...
by thx1138
Fri Jun 07, 2019 7:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The logical fallacy behind "Bonds Are For Safety"
Replies: 248
Views: 15448

Re: The logical fallacy behind "Bonds Are For Safety"

I think you've read your particular interpretation into the ambiguous phrase "bonds are for safety". As others said as well I don't see the fallacy of composition at play. It’s a common phenomenon that people have a hard time identifying their own biases and fallacious reasoning. Yuk, yuk... But an...
by thx1138
Fri Jun 07, 2019 5:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The logical fallacy behind "Bonds Are For Safety"
Replies: 248
Views: 15448

Re: The logical fallacy behind "Bonds Are For Safety"

I think you've read your particular interpretation into the ambiguous phrase "bonds are for safety". As others said as well I don't see the fallacy of composition at play. In fact, in the most common use I've seen of "bonds are for safety" has been to remind people not to chase yield. In most cases ...
by thx1138
Thu Jun 06, 2019 7:08 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Failed land investments and what to do with it?
Replies: 139
Views: 8983

Re: Failed land investments and what to do with it?

If I'm understanding the history of the parcels and how you acquired them then the value to the previous owners was zero - they abandoned them to the state. That's an important data point. As to all the comments on mineral rights that's largely irrelevant here. He's sitting on thousands of feet of a...
by thx1138
Sun Jun 02, 2019 5:54 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: For those who earn $500k+ per year. How'd you do that?
Replies: 369
Views: 37374

Re: For those who earn $500k+ per year. How'd you do that?

A family member is north of $500k/yr. Engineer that moved into management. Was always willing to move wherever the next opportunity was and had an eye on working up the ladder the whole time. Lived in five different countries moving kids along the whole way. The kids thrived, the family is happy and...
by thx1138
Thu May 30, 2019 5:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Nominal] Annuities are a bet on future inflation rates and should not be purchased by retirees
Replies: 183
Views: 12310

Re: Annuities are a bet on future inflation rates and should not be purchased by retirees

Closing out (hopefully) the NPV sidebar in the thread. Here is a really nice and relevant article from the SSA related to the PV of an annuity and the two potential methods of either using a market derived discount rate for all potential annuitants (essentially the context used in the linked article...
by thx1138
Wed May 29, 2019 6:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Nominal] Annuities are a bet on future inflation rates and should not be purchased by retirees
Replies: 183
Views: 12310

Re: Annuities are a bet on future inflation rates and should not be purchased by retirees

The assertion by vineviz is that if the NPV of two income streams is identical than the rational investor should be indifferent to the choice between them. That's wrong. The rational investor would still have a choice between them dictated by the utility of those two streams to the investor which i...
by thx1138
Wed May 29, 2019 11:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Nominal] Annuities are a bet on future inflation rates and should not be purchased by retirees
Replies: 183
Views: 12310

Re: Annuities are a bet on future inflation rates and should not be purchased by retirees

The assertion by vineviz is that if the NPV of two income streams is identical than the rational investor should be indifferent to the choice between them. That's wrong. The rational investor would still have a choice between them dictated by the utility of those two streams to the investor which i...
by thx1138
Wed May 29, 2019 9:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Nominal] Annuities are a bet on future inflation rates and should not be purchased by retirees
Replies: 183
Views: 12310

Re: Annuities are a bet on future inflation rates and should not be purchased by retirees

LOL they are quite literally the exact definition of present value/future value! I mean there isn’t anything more basic than those two examples. In case you forgot the equation for FV and PV here it is: You are way off base, both in your understanding of how to calculate NPV and your assessment of ...
by thx1138
Wed May 29, 2019 8:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Nominal] Annuities are a bet on future inflation rates and should not be purchased by retirees
Replies: 183
Views: 12310

Re: Annuities are a bet on future inflation rates and should not be purchased by retirees

If you are convinced that your examples A and B have the same NPV, I don't have the time to bring you up to speed in this thread. Good luck. They do in fact. Not in this world. As I said, good luck. LOL they are quite literally the exact definition of present value/future value! I mean there isn’t ...
by thx1138
Wed May 29, 2019 4:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Nominal] Annuities are a bet on future inflation rates and should not be purchased by retirees
Replies: 183
Views: 12310

Re: Annuities are a bet on future inflation rates and should not be purchased by retirees

If two cash flow streams have the same net present value, a rational investor will be indifferent between the two by the very definition of "net present value". LOL. Think that one through and try again. You first? Hint: you'll probably find the explanation in your corporate finance text under "cro...
by thx1138
Tue May 28, 2019 9:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Nominal] Annuities are a bet on future inflation rates and should not be purchased by retirees
Replies: 183
Views: 12310

Re: Annuities are a bet on future inflation rates and should not be purchased by retirees

vineviz wrote:
Tue May 28, 2019 9:26 pm
If two cash flow streams have the same net present value, a rational investor will be indifferent between the two by the very definition of "net present value".
LOL. Think that one through and try again.
by thx1138
Tue May 28, 2019 9:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Nominal] Annuities are a bet on future inflation rates and should not be purchased by retirees
Replies: 183
Views: 12310

Re: Annuities are a bet on future inflation rates and should not be purchased by retirees

Zvi Bodie and Dirk Cotton advise that nominal annuities carry uncertain inflation risk for retirees and that only real annuities should be purchased or none: Economic theory implies that, faced with a choice between two annuities (SPIAs) costing the same amount, one of which is fixed in nominal dol...
by thx1138
Tue May 28, 2019 5:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Portfolio insurance
Replies: 11
Views: 982

Re: Portfolio insurance

Well looks like the quick check I did with PV in the post above is born out by an amazingly good and exhaustive analysis of the general ineffectiveness of put options compared to simply reducing equity exposure by Israelov: https://images.aqr.com/-/media/AQR/Documents/Journal-Articles/Pathetic-Prote...
by thx1138
Mon May 27, 2019 9:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Portfolio insurance
Replies: 11
Views: 982

Re: Portfolio insurance

Yeah so this thing appears to make zero sense as “insurance” and the original white paper Faber wrote that it is implementing is perplexing. Here is the white paper: https://mebfaber.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/TAIL-Final-10.03.17-B.pdf On page 15 is a performance table of various mixtures of thi...
by thx1138
Mon May 27, 2019 5:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My trend following strategy and experience
Replies: 736
Views: 44206

Re: My trend following strategy and experience

Will, thanks for you never ending patience in this thread! As to when you buy I think I have to disagree with your assertion that you aren't going to be buying at the same market bottoms that some rebalancing strategies also require. Here's what a few historical dips look like: From the great depres...
by thx1138
Sat May 25, 2019 3:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My trend following strategy and experience
Replies: 736
Views: 44206

Re: My trend following strategy and experience

I would seriously question anyone who says that they would sell their 'safe' bonds to buy stocks that plummeted in value all the way down to an 89% maximum drawdown. Some probably would, but I doubt that the typical Boglehead could stomach it. There were many die-hard Bogleheads here who didn't reb...
by thx1138
Sat May 25, 2019 8:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My trend following strategy and experience
Replies: 736
Views: 44206

Re: My trend following strategy and experience

Some folks seem to be deviating into straw men. The portfolio for comparison as far as risk goes is 85/15. If you are done with accumulation and transitioning to 50/50 or some such well no joke your portfolio is less risky. Honestly at 85/15 you are going to get hammered in a major downturn - that i...
by thx1138
Fri May 24, 2019 7:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is the housing market starting to collapse?
Replies: 122
Views: 12410

Re: Is the housing market starting to collapse?

I see a huge risk in the real estate market simply due to people leveraging themselves to the hilt in HCOL areas... they rely on dual six figure incomes to purchase but in a recession those jobs get cut the first. Here in Irvine, California a house that used to cost $300,000 in 1999 is now $900,000...
by thx1138
Fri May 24, 2019 2:19 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: [Proposed changes to 401(k) and IRAs]
Replies: 67
Views: 2842

Re: Proposed changes to 401k and IRAs

Yes it refers to the inherited IRAs and those would need to be drained in 10 years with certain exceptions. But the legislation has only passed the house and forum rules don’t allow discussion of pending laws. So until it passes the senate and gets signed by the president you won’t find it being dis...
by thx1138
Fri May 24, 2019 11:02 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Job Offer Evaluation - FANG
Replies: 101
Views: 10439

Re: Job Offer Evaluation - FANG

Congratulations and very best of luck on the move and the new job!
by thx1138
Thu May 23, 2019 10:23 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Very High Net Worth, elite private or “good” public
Replies: 278
Views: 17979

Re: Very High Net Worth, elite private or “good” public

p.s. I have had this discussion with my kid's first grade teacher and have not gotten a good answer why folks think they have to mutually exclusive to each other, i.e. social vs. extra academic work to challenge the child. Well and to carry it further especially in young children being unchallenged...
by thx1138
Wed May 22, 2019 11:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My trend following strategy and experience
Replies: 736
Views: 44206

Re: My trend following strategy and experience

That said, there is still the question of lifestyle between the B&H and MT investor. During The Big One, the MT investor who got out will have their capital largely intact to continue sustaining their lifestyle while the B&H who saw the big drop in their portfolio will need to adjust to the new con...
by thx1138
Tue May 21, 2019 4:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Suggestions for introduction to options book....
Replies: 8
Views: 524

Re: Suggestions for introduction to options book....

Just remember once you understand how they work to stop there :wink:

Image
by thx1138
Mon May 20, 2019 11:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Trend Following As Insurance
Replies: 110
Views: 5529

Re: Larry Swedroe: Trend Following As Insurance

So I'm just left not know what to say, except that "historically" there does not seem to be any example of a managed futures fund with inception prior to 5/20/2009, and thus we have no way to judge whether any mitigation of the 2008-2009 decline would have been worth the cost in reduced performance...
by thx1138
Mon May 20, 2019 7:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Trend Following As Insurance
Replies: 110
Views: 5529

Re: Larry Swedroe: Trend Following As Insurance

I think the problem is Larry is recommending a managed futures fund that doesn't extend back far enough to actually show any help with tails. A 17% decline really isn't a "tail" - that's just business as usual for an equity market. So looking at managed futures back to 2010 really isn't analyzing ta...
by thx1138
Sun May 19, 2019 4:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My trend following strategy and experience
Replies: 736
Views: 44206

Re: My trend following strategy and experience

Have you bothered to read the PE posts linked at the top of the thread? They contain extensive back testing of multiple asset classes and indexes which should answer your questions without reinventing the wheel yourself. I'm 100% sure there will be nice back-tested results of any system being advoc...
by thx1138
Sun May 19, 2019 4:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My trend following strategy and experience
Replies: 736
Views: 44206

Re: My trend following strategy and experience

The strategy I use has been backtested to WWII. You went through your account back to WWII, and rotated through whatever was available there? Could you post the results? The point is you have no idea how your implementation will change the results. You seem to believe it doesn't matter, and you can...
by thx1138
Sat May 18, 2019 8:09 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Very High Net Worth, elite private or “good” public
Replies: 278
Views: 17979

Re: High net worth, elite private or “good” public

I was referring to high school students driving BMWs and other cars that IMO a high school student should not have access to. So how does this work if the family car is a BMW? The inherent problem with being high wealth is your kids will inevitably live a high net worth lifestyle. In the long run, ...
by thx1138
Sat May 18, 2019 7:31 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Very High Net Worth, elite private or “good” public
Replies: 278
Views: 17979

Re: High net worth, elite private or “good” public

I was referring to high school students driving BMWs and other cars that IMO a high school student should not have access to. I went to a private high school with a fair number of wealthy families but very high academic standards, challenging entrance exams and kids “not invited back” if they didn’...
by thx1138
Sat May 18, 2019 1:18 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Very High Net Worth, elite private or “good” public
Replies: 278
Views: 17979

Re: High net worth, elite private or “good” public

If they go to a private school 20 minutes away there will pretty much be losing the chance to build bonds with other kids in the neighborhood. Growing up with other kids in the neighborhood without the overbearing presence of parents to shuttle them to and fro can be one of the most valuable and me...