Search found 1097 matches

by thx1138
Mon May 11, 2020 9:42 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Planning for Layoff: Communicate my status?
Replies: 22
Views: 2340

Re: Planning for Layoff: Communicate my status?

I've also heard anecdotally about people being laid off, and then re-joining the same company as a vendor soon afterwards. Wow, that's terrible. I would advise not do to that, downgrading to non-FTE status is a huge risk. This is my opinion, but I'd rather have a gap in my employment during underst...
by thx1138
Thu Apr 02, 2020 10:14 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Are your personal expenses down during stay home and shelter?
Replies: 167
Views: 9233

Re: Are your personal expenses down during stay home and shelter?

I eat out a lot usually, nothing fancy and no alcohol but it does add up at about two meals per day out. Estimate $150/week saved now eating at home almost exclusively. I only commuted twice a week a long distance but that’s now averaging less than once a week and spouse not doing her daily shorter ...
by thx1138
Thu Apr 02, 2020 8:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.
Replies: 1121
Views: 97000

Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Well it is past the end of March and the OP has been slowly getting back in as planned after a pretty significant market drop. I haven't tracked all the posts in the thread but it sounds like market went down enough and OP is back in enough that this is now essentially guaranteed to have been a net ...
by thx1138
Sat Mar 28, 2020 11:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mortgage - Keep balance as High as Possible
Replies: 162
Views: 11480

Re: Mortgage - Keep balance as High as Possible

For everyone giving the OP grief this in fact did happen in 2008-9 where low LTV mortgages were foreclosed on first while high LTV mortgages were left in arrears while still occupied for more than a year. The bank hates empty houses so happier to let those behind stay in the house maintaining it eve...
by thx1138
Tue Mar 24, 2020 11:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Negative interest rate has arrived
Replies: 37
Views: 4323

Re: Negative interest rate has arrived

Doc wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 11:13 am
watchnerd wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 1:04 am
Go go long term Treasuries!
Huh? :D

I'm going to lock in 1.33% for thirty years? :oops:
I think he means if you already owned them. That end of the yield curve is going down to parodying nice capital gains for folks.
by thx1138
Sun Mar 22, 2020 1:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's Not Different This Time
Replies: 348
Views: 31203

Re: It's Not Different This Time

Spot on post.

And at the risk of channeling Yogi Berra what it is all down to is that it's not different this time because it is always different every time so it isn't different this time since it's different just like it always is.
by thx1138
Sun Mar 22, 2020 8:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: You planned for drop, but you hadn't counted on x
Replies: 20
Views: 1699

Re: You planned for drop, but you hadn't counted on x

A very minor one is that my IPS really says nothing about timing of rebalancing in a rapid crash. My investment spreadsheet computes the 5/25 bands that I use but typically I only check the sheet once or twice a year at most - usually just once when I lump sum IRA and 529 at the start of the year. I...
by thx1138
Fri Mar 20, 2020 7:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Reporting of Stock Futures
Replies: 8
Views: 465

Re: Reporting of Stock Futures

So I never actually looked at the underlying math until your post. Because most of the sites I check showed the futures in "S&P 500 points" I always assumed there was definitely math going on to convert the futures into an "implied open" value but I'd never heard the term or bothered to look it up. ...
by thx1138
Thu Mar 19, 2020 4:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does anyone else think this is a once in a lifetime opportunity to buy treasuries?
Replies: 68
Views: 8445

Re: Does anyone else think this is a once in a lifetime opportunity to buy treasuries?

Huh? When did “buy high, sell low” become a winning strategy?

OP, I think you need to read up on how bonds and changes in interest rates work. It seems like you’ve got it all backwards.
by thx1138
Thu Mar 19, 2020 6:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I don't understand the case for EE bonds
Replies: 500
Views: 52729

Re: I don't understand the case for EE bonds

james22 wrote:
Thu Mar 19, 2020 3:21 am
market timer wrote:
Thu Mar 19, 2020 1:23 am
james22 wrote:
Thu Mar 19, 2020 1:02 am
Have to believe the risk of inflation has increased with the stimulus.
Here is what the market thinks:

Image
Short-term, sure.

Twenty year out?
When did ten years become “short term”?
by thx1138
Mon Mar 16, 2020 5:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin is around $6k... why is nobody talking about this?
Replies: 104
Views: 8425

Re: The Bitcoin situation

freewill404 wrote:
Mon Mar 16, 2020 4:21 pm
thx1138 wrote:
Mon Mar 16, 2020 7:46 am
Which one is that? Right now after the QE announcement BTC is down.
:happy

It is a temporary liquidity crunch.

Bitcoin did alright since the QE that effectively birthed it. Again, take a look at the charts and judge for yourself.
I still don't know what chart you are talking about.
by thx1138
Mon Mar 16, 2020 8:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Airline Stocks
Replies: 42
Views: 3993

Re: Airline Stocks

You haven't advanced an argument for why shareholders won't be wiped out. Who cares if the company still exists? GM still exists. But shareholders lost everything when it declared bankruptcy in 2009. That is an interesting point. Warren Buffet is a large shareholder in United, American, Delta, and ...
by thx1138
Mon Mar 16, 2020 8:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Airline Stocks
Replies: 42
Views: 3993

Re: Airline Stocks

You haven't advanced an argument for why shareholders won't be wiped out. Who cares if the company still exists? GM still exists. But shareholders lost everything when it declared bankruptcy in 2009. That is an interesting point. Warren Buffet is a large shareholder in United, American, Delta, and ...
by thx1138
Mon Mar 16, 2020 8:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold is taking a monster hit
Replies: 64
Views: 5412

Re: Gold is taking a monster hit

Cash is a stable and guaranteed return. Belongs in every diversified portfolio. No it isn't. Cash is the asset class most susceptible to inflation So while yes, it is helpful to keep a small portion of ones portfolio in cash, let's not oversell its strengths. Actually long term nominals are much, m...
by thx1138
Mon Mar 16, 2020 7:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin is around $6k... why is nobody talking about this?
Replies: 104
Views: 8425

Re: The Bitcoin situation

How are the repo operations of the next few weeks somehow equivalent to QE? Are you seriously claiming we're not easening at this point? :shock: Definitely QE now! Also explain how the previous QE was beneficial to BTC like assets? Have you not seen the graph? Which one is that? Right now after the...
by thx1138
Mon Mar 16, 2020 7:34 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Real Estate question with new Fed cut
Replies: 12
Views: 1154

Re: Real Estate question with new Fed cut

If we purchase a house this year, would try to pay it off in <5 years. Would be eligible for physician loans but also can put up to 20% down if needed but that would stretch our emergency fund. No concrete plans of retiring early and plan to work at least into our 50s. If you are paying it off that...
by thx1138
Sun Mar 15, 2020 8:30 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Real Estate question with new Fed cut
Replies: 12
Views: 1154

Re: Real Estate question with new Fed cut

Transaction costs on houses are high, around 10% most places. So rushing to buy to get a low mortgage rate at the risk of getting the wrong house seems suboptimal. Buying a place to significantly upgrade later also seems silly as you’ll lock the low rate on just a portion of the loan only later havi...
by thx1138
Sun Mar 15, 2020 8:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fed Slashes Rates to Fight Coronavirus Slowdown WSJ 3/15/20
Replies: 396
Views: 20325

Re: Fed Slashes Rates to Fight Coronavirus Slowdown WSJ 3/15/20

For the new investors here freaking out about the Fed Funds Rate being targeted at 0% please be aware it was that way for seven years from late 2008 to late 2015. It being at zero is nothing particularly new or historic.
by thx1138
Sun Mar 15, 2020 6:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fed Slashes Rates to Fight Coronavirus Slowdown WSJ 3/15/20
Replies: 396
Views: 20325

Re: Fed Slashes Rates to Fight Coronavirus Slowdown WSJ 3/15/20

I just heard. Bonds are at ZERO percent? How does that work?! Bonds aren’t at zero, the federal funds rate is. But bonds can be at zero. The way it works in that case is you give the borrower their money and at the end of the term they give it back. This is better than recent times in Europe in whi...
by thx1138
Sun Mar 15, 2020 5:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fed Slashes Rates to Fight Coronavirus Slowdown WSJ 3/15/20
Replies: 396
Views: 20325

Re: Fed Slashes Rates to Fight Coronavirus Slowdown WSJ 3/15/20

Well that didn’t appear to work based on the futures reaction.

Only one thing left for it I guess. To finally calm markets Trump is going to have to authorize a release from the Strategic Toilet Paper Reserve.
by thx1138
Sun Mar 15, 2020 4:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Burton Malkiel’s Fallacy of Time Diversification
Replies: 9
Views: 1004

Re: Burton Malkiel’s Fallacy of Time Diversification

As to Malkiel I believe even if you had a random walk market time horizon still matters if you don’t have an isoelastic utility function. And really no person does. Malkiel plots in the book the yearly returns to stocks. He then plots the longer-term return of stocks. He notices that as long as you...
by thx1138
Sun Mar 15, 2020 12:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Deploying your emergency fund to buy stocks? Think again.
Replies: 183
Views: 29389

Re: Deploying your emergency fund to buy stocks? Think again.

Absolutely. Using an EF to buy “bargain” stocks is recklessly turning the whole concept of an EF on its head. We don’t know how many secondary industries may be affected with job loss or income disruption. Heck one could have a totally unrelated health crisis too. If you suddenly unexpectedly need t...
by thx1138
Sat Mar 14, 2020 10:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 18784
Views: 2626166

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Interesting read on r/wallstreetbets https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/fit5yg/the_shadow_war_how_thursday_and_friday_set_up_for/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf I want low prices to buy :beer As best as I could tell the TL;DR of that was “remember, shiny side out”
by thx1138
Sat Mar 14, 2020 8:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Burton Malkiel’s Fallacy of Time Diversification
Replies: 9
Views: 1004

Re: Burton Malkiel’s Fallacy of Time Diversification

I believe this topic has been beaten to death multiple times already. There are multiple fundamental flaws in the argument that time horizon doesn’t matter. In the specific and rather unrealistic conditions Merton applied indeed it doesn’t matter. Those conditions however apply to almost no real wor...
by thx1138
Sat Mar 14, 2020 6:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is the market impressed with the stimulus package?
Replies: 57
Views: 4212

Re: Why is the market impressed with the stimulus package?

Also, the testing statistics are eye opening. I think the bottom line is that we now have data indicating that only 1% - 2% of those complaining of symptoms have Coronavirus. Can you clarify which test statistics are indicating this? No. It's just what I heard during Trumps press conference. There ...
by thx1138
Sat Mar 14, 2020 5:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How often do you re-balance during these times?
Replies: 42
Views: 3478

Re: How often do you re-balance during these times?

We have assets spread across multiple accounts and brokerages so it is sort of a pain to gather all the data. I’ve intentionally left it awkward to do so I don’t obsessively check. Thus in the past I’ve only done rebalancing when making lump contributions like IRA at the start of the year or sometim...
by thx1138
Sat Mar 14, 2020 5:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is the market impressed with the stimulus package?
Replies: 57
Views: 4212

Re: Why is the market impressed with the stimulus package?

FIREchief wrote:
Fri Mar 13, 2020 11:29 pm
Also, the testing statistics are eye opening. I think the bottom line is that we now have data indicating that only 1% - 2% of those complaining of symptoms have Coronavirus.
Can you clarify which test statistics are indicating this?
by thx1138
Sat Mar 14, 2020 4:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My trend following strategy and experience
Replies: 1524
Views: 121789

Re: My trend following strategy and experience

smitcat wrote:
Sat Mar 14, 2020 4:13 pm

"A hybrid trend following-gut feeling market timing system."
Now that is funny !
And if the next global pandemic is instead based on a norovirus it will be a very apropos name for the system too!
by thx1138
Sat Mar 14, 2020 4:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So yesterday I leveraged up
Replies: 75
Views: 7986

Re: So yesterday I leveraged up

Yay! It's the market timer 2.0 thread!

(OP, right now your leverage is tiny compared to what market timer was doing back in 2008 so my comment is in jest. Thanks for sharing what you are doing and we will enjoy the ride along side you).
by thx1138
Sat Mar 14, 2020 7:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin is around $6k... why is nobody talking about this?
Replies: 104
Views: 8425

Re: The Bitcoin situation

The world must've gone crazy to buy USD with their BTC at a time when the Fed is effectively doubling ALL of QE since 2009 over the next couple of weeks... Can you walk us through this? How are the repo operations of the next few weeks somehow equivalent to QE? Also explain how the previous QE was ...
by thx1138
Sat Mar 14, 2020 6:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So.... is this really "it"? Is this what we needed to mentally prepare for?
Replies: 158
Views: 14304

Re: So.... is this really "it"? Is this what we needed to mentally prepare for?

This really isn’t a test market wise. More like a quiz and an open book one at that. As of this moment the market is only down to where it was about 13 months ago. We can look at other countries already over the infection rate hump to get some idea of the likely path forward though of course there a...
by thx1138
Fri Mar 13, 2020 7:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why are bonds falling?
Replies: 236
Views: 5672

Re: Time to exit conventional Bond funds?

Many people, including some on these forums and at Boglehead conferences, have always advocated keeping fixed income as treasuries and CDs precisely because these assets behave differently in a crisis than corporate and even municipal bonds. Paired with this is usually increasing the equity allocati...
by thx1138
Fri Mar 13, 2020 7:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is it time to GET OUT?
Replies: 125
Views: 10720

Re: Is it time to GET OUT?

Not to hijack.....but I dont want to start another thread for this... Would all your replies be the same if OP was 45, instead of 34? Assuming they want to retire at 60? I’m about 45 and would like to retire around 55. I’m not selling anything out, am continuing contributions 100% to equity funds i...
by thx1138
Fri Mar 13, 2020 2:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why are bonds falling?
Replies: 236
Views: 5672

Re: Why are municipal bonds down 5% today?

As for Idiosyncratic risk....I can't think of anything except massive earthquake. Even then the endowment would be safe and rebuilding would get a big hand from their many billionaire alums.. The next Larry Nassar... Anyway, not saying it is a bad investment. Quite possible a better risk adjusted r...
by thx1138
Fri Mar 13, 2020 2:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why are bonds falling?
Replies: 236
Views: 5672

Re: Why are municipal bonds down 5% today?

I think there are several reasons for today's big decline in muni prices. First, some people are selling everything, so there are more sellers than buyers. Second, yields had gotten very low, so even if yields are slightly better, they still aren't great. Third, the risk of default has gone up. For...
by thx1138
Fri Mar 13, 2020 10:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why are bonds falling?
Replies: 236
Views: 5672

Re: Why are municipal bonds down 5% today?

I think there are several reasons for today's big decline in muni prices. First, some people are selling everything, so there are more sellers than buyers. Second, yields had gotten very low, so even if yields are slightly better, they still aren't great. Third, the risk of default has gone up. For...
by thx1138
Thu Mar 12, 2020 9:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin is around $6k... why is nobody talking about this?
Replies: 104
Views: 8425

Re: Bitcoin is around $6k... why is nobody talking about this?

Lol. It’s now 4500 a few hours after the OP.
by thx1138
Thu Mar 12, 2020 8:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do you see any of the airlines going bankrupt
Replies: 16
Views: 1215

Re: Do you see any of the airlines going bankrupt

Sure, why not? It’s something they do quite frequently already:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_a ... ted_States
by thx1138
Thu Mar 12, 2020 3:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 18784
Views: 2626166

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

drk wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 3:14 pm
Triple digit golfer wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 3:07 pm
Is the bull over?
Yes, now it is officially and indisputably dead.
I saw a picture of it hanging on a meat hook for sale in a wet-market in Wuhan.
by thx1138
Thu Mar 12, 2020 3:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Before/today and next plan with what you have
Replies: 6
Views: 509

Re: What U had/What u have/ What U r doing now

** Current allocation target 75/25. Actual should be getting closer to 70/30 with all the declines but I'm not tracking closely. Should be time to rebalance soon I suspect, perhaps already? ** Age mid forties ** Debt none ** Option to fully retire in 10 years, go half time in next few years ** Spend...
by thx1138
Thu Mar 12, 2020 3:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 18784
Views: 2626166

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Woo-hoo! New top 5 day for the SP500 as well. Worst since 1987.
by thx1138
Thu Mar 12, 2020 2:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International is in meltdown
Replies: 308
Views: 22352

Re: International is in meltdown

Just TLH traded some VTIAX from 9/2015. Ouch!
by thx1138
Wed Mar 11, 2020 9:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The ideal investment percentage in cryptocurrencies.
Replies: 42
Views: 1899

Re: The ideal investment percentage in cryptocurrencies.

Same as your allocation to tulip bulbs.
by thx1138
Mon Mar 09, 2020 5:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "If you were happy to buy it then" fallacy
Replies: 64
Views: 4140

Re: "If you were happy to buy it then" fallacy

It's almost as if the OP has never actually looked at historical market prices. +1 On the contrary, it is almost as if you didnt read my OP. Two years is beside the point, which is that this is nothing other than a smug disposition conjured up mostly to buttress oneself against psychological pitfal...
by thx1138
Mon Mar 09, 2020 4:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "If you were happy to buy it then" fallacy
Replies: 64
Views: 4140

Re: "If you were happy to buy it then" fallacy

It is not so often even over a full investing career that a pullback takes away multiple years of gains just like that. You sure? I'd say this is a very common scenario. Happens every few years. Multiple years? Outside of full blown recessions not very often. There were pullbacks in 2015 and 2018 t...
by thx1138
Mon Mar 09, 2020 3:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "If you were happy to buy it then" fallacy
Replies: 64
Views: 4140

Re: "If you were happy to buy it then" fallacy

Today VTI hit the same price level it was sitting at on 01/01/2018. Of course dividends have come in to the investor in addition to price appreciation, etc., but noting something like the above on this board usually results in "Well, you were happy to buy it then at that price; what has changed now...
by thx1138
Mon Mar 09, 2020 3:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 18784
Views: 2626166

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

ray.james wrote:
Mon Mar 09, 2020 3:04 pm
I wish Dow dropped 5 more points. The headlines write themselves. I am so disappointed. :(
Ticker is still moving and it is more than 2000 at the moment. Hold the presses as editors get ready to change “almost” to “over”.
by thx1138
Mon Mar 09, 2020 3:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 18784
Views: 2626166

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

The SP500 just missed a worse close than one in 2008. -7.61% today and -7.62% on 10/9/2008. Well we broke into the top 20 at least. 17th worst percentage drop. Likely one of the other indices may have done “better” to generate a scarier headline! EDIT: Oh wait, looks like computers not caught up yet...
by thx1138
Mon Mar 09, 2020 1:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are any early accumulators thankful for the current correction?
Replies: 185
Views: 10205

Re: Are any early accumulators thankful for the current correction?

Not an early accumulator at all but still an accumulator so perfectly happy to see a correction. We are essentially already at our number but still accumulating for another 10 years likely. So the "discount" is nice. Assuming it all comes back in ten years or so which of course is like anything else...
by thx1138
Mon Mar 09, 2020 10:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 18784
Views: 2626166

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

I'm not trading individual stocks, but just watching and I see Royal Caribbean Cruise Line is down 19.8% right now. If that hits 20% does that stock halt trading for the rest of the day? That is crazy its down -62% from all time high in February. :shock: It's been reported today that the CDC was ad...