Search found 1114 matches

by thx1138
Tue Jun 23, 2020 9:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Malkiel weighs in on passive investing and alternatives to the 60/40...
Replies: 39
Views: 4735

Re: Malkiel weighs in on passive investing and alternatives to the 60/40...

Seems like ridiculous yield chasing advice, but what do I know really? Still. He’s concerned about inflation. If only there were some safe bond like instrument that was indexed for inflation... No, nothing like that exists I guess so off to any of the standard yield chasing bond substitutes that hav...
by thx1138
Sat Jun 20, 2020 11:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wirecard scandal / Germany's Enron
Replies: 21
Views: 2620

Re: Wirecard scandal / Germany's Enron

Well of course, VGTSX is the largest international index fund in the world. (And the 11th largest mutual fund overall). If they didn’t own that much they wouldn’t be an “index fund”. So that implies they own 1.5% of all ex-US, right? Roughly speaking yes. For instance they hold: 1.5% of SIE.DE (Sie...
by thx1138
Fri Jun 19, 2020 10:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wirecard scandal / Germany's Enron
Replies: 21
Views: 2620

Re: Wirecard scandal / Germany's Enron

Quercus Palustris wrote: Fri Jun 19, 2020 4:24 pm 2nd largest mutual fund holder of WDI.DE is Vanguard Total International (VGTSX), at 1.51% :(
Well of course, VGTSX is the largest international index fund in the world. (And the 11th largest mutual fund overall). If they didn’t own that much they wouldn’t be an “index fund”.
by thx1138
Tue Jun 16, 2020 7:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 20240
Views: 2763228

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

The commonly accepted definition of a bull market is when stock prices rise by 20% after two declines of 20% each. We did not have the second downfall yet. Thus - by definition - we are not yet in a new bull market. Just to be correct definitin-wise. We are still in a bear market or let's call it "...
by thx1138
Mon Jun 15, 2020 6:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Hertz (bankrupt) may issue new stock
Replies: 80
Views: 7243

Re: Hertz (bankrupt) may issue new stock

Why, oh, why are people piling into Hertz stock instead of my favorite international stock ETFs like MOTI, DGRE, DFJ, DGS, IQIN, GWX, and FNDC? MOTI and DGRE specialize in high quality stocks. The others are diversified plain vanilla stock funds. Hertz may go out of business. Developed markets as a...
by thx1138
Sun Jun 14, 2020 8:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Worst Worst Case
Replies: 4
Views: 1776

Re: The Worst Worst Case

Does Vanguard? Look at the prospectus for the particular fund you are interested in to find out. What safeguards are in place for our investments if something like this article describes affects Vanguard and other companies? It wouldn't affect Vanguard the company at all since Vanguard isn't a bank...
by thx1138
Sun Jun 14, 2020 12:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Forbes: Do Day Traders Drive The Market Now?
Replies: 13
Views: 1035

Re: Forbes: Do Day Traders Drive The Market Now?

The article contained no actual information to answer the question that I could find. And that title has nothing to do with anything in the article, though that isn't unusual as typically an editor trying to attract clicks makes the title and not the author.

Waste of bandwidth...
by thx1138
Sun Jun 14, 2020 11:09 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Slide-in pickup campers
Replies: 33
Views: 2316

Re: Slide-in pickup campers

Sandtrap covered nearly every point I know about slide-ins already. I would add though to consider carefully whether a slide-in is really what you want. Once you eliminate pop-ups you are now relegated to having a large, unwieldy vehicle that is mostly restricted to well paved or graded roads with a...
by thx1138
Sat Jun 13, 2020 2:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Hertz (bankrupt) may issue new stock
Replies: 80
Views: 7243

Re: Hertz (bankrupt) may issue new stock

because the value of their collateral (rental cars) has increased Thanks for the explanation, better than anything the media has put out. But I don't understand how there could reasonably be a scenario where the value of a rental fleet increases during the bankruptcy period - don't cars depreciate ...
by thx1138
Sat Jun 13, 2020 9:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The “Abandon Bonds” strategy
Replies: 259
Views: 27446

Re: The “Abandon Bonds” strategy

Individual investors do have access to FDIC insured accounts and certificates that often provide higher yields with zero duration than bonds available to institutional investors with much longer durations. It is certainly a viable alternative at times and one pretty common with Bogleheads. Similarly...
by thx1138
Fri Jun 12, 2020 7:32 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: So Are Home Renovations Worth It (Financially) Or Not?
Replies: 105
Views: 7629

Re: So Are Home Renovations Worth It (Financially) Or Not?

If I don't use my money to improve my family's quality of life by living in an updated, beautiful home; then what's the point of money? You could have used the money to spend more time with them instead? But indeed some families’ quality of life is improved by spending less time with certain family...
by thx1138
Thu Jun 11, 2020 7:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.
Replies: 1229
Views: 111090

Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Ah, semi-glad this thread bumped again. Was going to post a few weeks ago with a semi-mea-culpa but didn't want to bump it just for that. On the very first page of this thread I tell the OP to ignore the news and stay the course. I also do wish them good luck and suggest while I didn't agree with th...
by thx1138
Wed Jun 10, 2020 6:01 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Perpetual Withdrawal Rate
Replies: 29
Views: 6659

Re: Perpetual Withdrawal Rate

Oh and this gets close to your answer without having to run the google sheet yourself: https://earlyretirementnowdotcom.files.wordpress.com/2016/11/swr-part1-table1.png Figure came from: https://earlyretirementnow.com/2016/12/07/the-ultimate-guide-to-safe-withdrawal-rates-part-1-intro/ I realize th...
by thx1138
Thu May 28, 2020 8:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Sitting on a bunch of cash; what to do with it if I believe we're headed for SPX 1800 and protracted recession?
Replies: 206
Views: 21787

Re: Sitting on a bunch of cash; what to do with it if I believe we're headed for SPX 1800 and protracted recession?

Do you hope your house burns down because you “bet” on it by purchasing insurance? Insurance in the stock market is having some of your money in bonds, all the time, just in case a crash happens. Going mostly cash because you think a crash is going to happen soon isn't insurance, that's a bet. If o...
by thx1138
Thu May 28, 2020 5:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Sitting on a bunch of cash; what to do with it if I believe we're headed for SPX 1800 and protracted recession?
Replies: 206
Views: 21787

Re: Sitting on a bunch of cash; what to do with it if I believe we're headed for SPX 1800 and protracted recession?

Care to point out how many lows have been retraced after coming back this much? Let me save you some time: exactly zero* . *Note: Some claim 2007 retraced the 2000 lows, but this is really reaching as it was clearly a fresh bull (7 year gap). If you are going to sit on the sidelines for almost a de...
by thx1138
Wed May 27, 2020 8:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogleheads: What is your largest single stock holding? (if any)
Replies: 79
Views: 4320

Re: Bogleheads: What is your largest single stock holding? (if any)

1. The company I work for 2. About 15% 3. I have no choice in the matter It’s an S-Corp and an ESOP which has done very well in share value growth as well as 8-10% dividends each year for the past two decades. So I certainly can’t complain about the results, but I’d never choose to have this much in...
by thx1138
Mon May 25, 2020 7:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "The stocks are up but the economy's down"--good "Indicator" podcast episode
Replies: 20
Views: 2918

Re: "The stocks are up but the economy's down"--good "Indicator" podcast episode

Dog analogy is a great one! That said in this case the point is made near the end of the interview: BROWN: The worse outcome is that there are people who lose their jobs right now that never get those jobs back and either can remake themselves doing something else or can't. And the long-term ramific...
by thx1138
Mon May 11, 2020 9:42 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Planning for Layoff: Communicate my status?
Replies: 22
Views: 2447

Re: Planning for Layoff: Communicate my status?

I've also heard anecdotally about people being laid off, and then re-joining the same company as a vendor soon afterwards. Wow, that's terrible. I would advise not do to that, downgrading to non-FTE status is a huge risk. This is my opinion, but I'd rather have a gap in my employment during underst...
by thx1138
Thu Apr 02, 2020 10:14 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Are your personal expenses down during stay home and shelter?
Replies: 180
Views: 12906

Re: Are your personal expenses down during stay home and shelter?

I eat out a lot usually, nothing fancy and no alcohol but it does add up at about two meals per day out. Estimate $150/week saved now eating at home almost exclusively. I only commuted twice a week a long distance but that’s now averaging less than once a week and spouse not doing her daily shorter ...
by thx1138
Thu Apr 02, 2020 8:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.
Replies: 1229
Views: 111090

Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Well it is past the end of March and the OP has been slowly getting back in as planned after a pretty significant market drop. I haven't tracked all the posts in the thread but it sounds like market went down enough and OP is back in enough that this is now essentially guaranteed to have been a net ...
by thx1138
Sat Mar 28, 2020 11:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mortgage - Keep balance as High as Possible
Replies: 162
Views: 11920

Re: Mortgage - Keep balance as High as Possible

For everyone giving the OP grief this in fact did happen in 2008-9 where low LTV mortgages were foreclosed on first while high LTV mortgages were left in arrears while still occupied for more than a year. The bank hates empty houses so happier to let those behind stay in the house maintaining it eve...
by thx1138
Tue Mar 24, 2020 11:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Negative interest rate has arrived
Replies: 37
Views: 4399

Re: Negative interest rate has arrived

Doc wrote: Tue Mar 24, 2020 11:13 am
watchnerd wrote: Tue Mar 24, 2020 1:04 am Go go long term Treasuries!
Huh? :D

I'm going to lock in 1.33% for thirty years? :oops:
I think he means if you already owned them. That end of the yield curve is going down to parodying nice capital gains for folks.
by thx1138
Sun Mar 22, 2020 1:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's Not Different This Time
Replies: 372
Views: 38489

Re: It's Not Different This Time

Spot on post.

And at the risk of channeling Yogi Berra what it is all down to is that it's not different this time because it is always different every time so it isn't different this time since it's different just like it always is.
by thx1138
Sun Mar 22, 2020 8:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: You planned for drop, but you hadn't counted on x
Replies: 20
Views: 1737

Re: You planned for drop, but you hadn't counted on x

A very minor one is that my IPS really says nothing about timing of rebalancing in a rapid crash. My investment spreadsheet computes the 5/25 bands that I use but typically I only check the sheet once or twice a year at most - usually just once when I lump sum IRA and 529 at the start of the year. I...
by thx1138
Fri Mar 20, 2020 7:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Reporting of Stock Futures
Replies: 8
Views: 474

Re: Reporting of Stock Futures

So I never actually looked at the underlying math until your post. Because most of the sites I check showed the futures in "S&P 500 points" I always assumed there was definitely math going on to convert the futures into an "implied open" value but I'd never heard the term or bothered to look it up. ...
by thx1138
Thu Mar 19, 2020 4:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does anyone else think this is a once in a lifetime opportunity to buy treasuries?
Replies: 68
Views: 8737

Re: Does anyone else think this is a once in a lifetime opportunity to buy treasuries?

Huh? When did “buy high, sell low” become a winning strategy?

OP, I think you need to read up on how bonds and changes in interest rates work. It seems like you’ve got it all backwards.
by thx1138
Thu Mar 19, 2020 6:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I don't understand the case for EE bonds
Replies: 534
Views: 56684

Re: I don't understand the case for EE bonds

james22 wrote: Thu Mar 19, 2020 3:21 am
market timer wrote: Thu Mar 19, 2020 1:23 am
james22 wrote: Thu Mar 19, 2020 1:02 am Have to believe the risk of inflation has increased with the stimulus.
Here is what the market thinks:

Image
Short-term, sure.

Twenty year out?
When did ten years become “short term”?
by thx1138
Mon Mar 16, 2020 5:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin is around $6k... why is nobody talking about this?
Replies: 104
Views: 8750

Re: The Bitcoin situation

freewill404 wrote: Mon Mar 16, 2020 4:21 pm
thx1138 wrote: Mon Mar 16, 2020 7:46 am Which one is that? Right now after the QE announcement BTC is down.
:happy

It is a temporary liquidity crunch.

Bitcoin did alright since the QE that effectively birthed it. Again, take a look at the charts and judge for yourself.
I still don't know what chart you are talking about.
by thx1138
Mon Mar 16, 2020 8:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Airline Stocks
Replies: 42
Views: 4085

Re: Airline Stocks

You haven't advanced an argument for why shareholders won't be wiped out. Who cares if the company still exists? GM still exists. But shareholders lost everything when it declared bankruptcy in 2009. That is an interesting point. Warren Buffet is a large shareholder in United, American, Delta, and ...
by thx1138
Mon Mar 16, 2020 8:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Airline Stocks
Replies: 42
Views: 4085

Re: Airline Stocks

You haven't advanced an argument for why shareholders won't be wiped out. Who cares if the company still exists? GM still exists. But shareholders lost everything when it declared bankruptcy in 2009. That is an interesting point. Warren Buffet is a large shareholder in United, American, Delta, and ...
by thx1138
Mon Mar 16, 2020 8:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold is taking a monster hit
Replies: 64
Views: 5585

Re: Gold is taking a monster hit

Cash is a stable and guaranteed return. Belongs in every diversified portfolio. No it isn't. Cash is the asset class most susceptible to inflation So while yes, it is helpful to keep a small portion of ones portfolio in cash, let's not oversell its strengths. Actually long term nominals are much, m...
by thx1138
Mon Mar 16, 2020 7:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin is around $6k... why is nobody talking about this?
Replies: 104
Views: 8750

Re: The Bitcoin situation

How are the repo operations of the next few weeks somehow equivalent to QE? Are you seriously claiming we're not easening at this point? :shock: Definitely QE now! Also explain how the previous QE was beneficial to BTC like assets? Have you not seen the graph? Which one is that? Right now after the...
by thx1138
Mon Mar 16, 2020 7:34 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Real Estate question with new Fed cut
Replies: 12
Views: 1175

Re: Real Estate question with new Fed cut

If we purchase a house this year, would try to pay it off in <5 years. Would be eligible for physician loans but also can put up to 20% down if needed but that would stretch our emergency fund. No concrete plans of retiring early and plan to work at least into our 50s. If you are paying it off that...
by thx1138
Sun Mar 15, 2020 8:30 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Real Estate question with new Fed cut
Replies: 12
Views: 1175

Re: Real Estate question with new Fed cut

Transaction costs on houses are high, around 10% most places. So rushing to buy to get a low mortgage rate at the risk of getting the wrong house seems suboptimal. Buying a place to significantly upgrade later also seems silly as you’ll lock the low rate on just a portion of the loan only later havi...
by thx1138
Sun Mar 15, 2020 8:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fed Slashes Rates to Fight Coronavirus Slowdown WSJ 3/15/20
Replies: 396
Views: 20766

Re: Fed Slashes Rates to Fight Coronavirus Slowdown WSJ 3/15/20

For the new investors here freaking out about the Fed Funds Rate being targeted at 0% please be aware it was that way for seven years from late 2008 to late 2015. It being at zero is nothing particularly new or historic.
by thx1138
Sun Mar 15, 2020 6:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fed Slashes Rates to Fight Coronavirus Slowdown WSJ 3/15/20
Replies: 396
Views: 20766

Re: Fed Slashes Rates to Fight Coronavirus Slowdown WSJ 3/15/20

I just heard. Bonds are at ZERO percent? How does that work?! Bonds aren’t at zero, the federal funds rate is. But bonds can be at zero. The way it works in that case is you give the borrower their money and at the end of the term they give it back. This is better than recent times in Europe in whi...
by thx1138
Sun Mar 15, 2020 5:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fed Slashes Rates to Fight Coronavirus Slowdown WSJ 3/15/20
Replies: 396
Views: 20766

Re: Fed Slashes Rates to Fight Coronavirus Slowdown WSJ 3/15/20

Well that didn’t appear to work based on the futures reaction.

Only one thing left for it I guess. To finally calm markets Trump is going to have to authorize a release from the Strategic Toilet Paper Reserve.
by thx1138
Sun Mar 15, 2020 4:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Burton Malkiel’s Fallacy of Time Diversification
Replies: 9
Views: 1020

Re: Burton Malkiel’s Fallacy of Time Diversification

As to Malkiel I believe even if you had a random walk market time horizon still matters if you don’t have an isoelastic utility function. And really no person does. Malkiel plots in the book the yearly returns to stocks. He then plots the longer-term return of stocks. He notices that as long as you...
by thx1138
Sun Mar 15, 2020 12:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Deploying your emergency fund to buy stocks? Think again.
Replies: 183
Views: 29758

Re: Deploying your emergency fund to buy stocks? Think again.

Absolutely. Using an EF to buy “bargain” stocks is recklessly turning the whole concept of an EF on its head. We don’t know how many secondary industries may be affected with job loss or income disruption. Heck one could have a totally unrelated health crisis too. If you suddenly unexpectedly need t...
by thx1138
Sat Mar 14, 2020 10:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 20240
Views: 2763228

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Interesting read on r/wallstreetbets https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/fit5yg/the_shadow_war_how_thursday_and_friday_set_up_for/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf I want low prices to buy :beer As best as I could tell the TL;DR of that was “remember, shiny side out”
by thx1138
Sat Mar 14, 2020 8:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Burton Malkiel’s Fallacy of Time Diversification
Replies: 9
Views: 1020

Re: Burton Malkiel’s Fallacy of Time Diversification

I believe this topic has been beaten to death multiple times already. There are multiple fundamental flaws in the argument that time horizon doesn’t matter. In the specific and rather unrealistic conditions Merton applied indeed it doesn’t matter. Those conditions however apply to almost no real wor...
by thx1138
Sat Mar 14, 2020 6:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is the market impressed with the stimulus package?
Replies: 57
Views: 4262

Re: Why is the market impressed with the stimulus package?

Also, the testing statistics are eye opening. I think the bottom line is that we now have data indicating that only 1% - 2% of those complaining of symptoms have Coronavirus. Can you clarify which test statistics are indicating this? No. It's just what I heard during Trumps press conference. There ...
by thx1138
Sat Mar 14, 2020 5:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How often do you re-balance during these times?
Replies: 42
Views: 3654

Re: How often do you re-balance during these times?

We have assets spread across multiple accounts and brokerages so it is sort of a pain to gather all the data. I’ve intentionally left it awkward to do so I don’t obsessively check. Thus in the past I’ve only done rebalancing when making lump contributions like IRA at the start of the year or sometim...
by thx1138
Sat Mar 14, 2020 5:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is the market impressed with the stimulus package?
Replies: 57
Views: 4262

Re: Why is the market impressed with the stimulus package?

FIREchief wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 11:29 pm Also, the testing statistics are eye opening. I think the bottom line is that we now have data indicating that only 1% - 2% of those complaining of symptoms have Coronavirus.
Can you clarify which test statistics are indicating this?
by thx1138
Sat Mar 14, 2020 4:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My trend following strategy and experience
Replies: 1524
Views: 124425

Re: My trend following strategy and experience

smitcat wrote: Sat Mar 14, 2020 4:13 pm
"A hybrid trend following-gut feeling market timing system."
Now that is funny !
And if the next global pandemic is instead based on a norovirus it will be a very apropos name for the system too!
by thx1138
Sat Mar 14, 2020 4:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So yesterday I leveraged up
Replies: 75
Views: 8149

Re: So yesterday I leveraged up

Yay! It's the market timer 2.0 thread!

(OP, right now your leverage is tiny compared to what market timer was doing back in 2008 so my comment is in jest. Thanks for sharing what you are doing and we will enjoy the ride along side you).
by thx1138
Sat Mar 14, 2020 7:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin is around $6k... why is nobody talking about this?
Replies: 104
Views: 8750

Re: The Bitcoin situation

The world must've gone crazy to buy USD with their BTC at a time when the Fed is effectively doubling ALL of QE since 2009 over the next couple of weeks... Can you walk us through this? How are the repo operations of the next few weeks somehow equivalent to QE? Also explain how the previous QE was ...
by thx1138
Sat Mar 14, 2020 6:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So.... is this really "it"? Is this what we needed to mentally prepare for?
Replies: 158
Views: 14496

Re: So.... is this really "it"? Is this what we needed to mentally prepare for?

This really isn’t a test market wise. More like a quiz and an open book one at that. As of this moment the market is only down to where it was about 13 months ago. We can look at other countries already over the infection rate hump to get some idea of the likely path forward though of course there a...
by thx1138
Fri Mar 13, 2020 7:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why are bonds falling?
Replies: 236
Views: 6149

Re: Time to exit conventional Bond funds?

Many people, including some on these forums and at Boglehead conferences, have always advocated keeping fixed income as treasuries and CDs precisely because these assets behave differently in a crisis than corporate and even municipal bonds. Paired with this is usually increasing the equity allocati...
by thx1138
Fri Mar 13, 2020 7:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is it time to GET OUT?
Replies: 125
Views: 10819

Re: Is it time to GET OUT?

Not to hijack.....but I dont want to start another thread for this... Would all your replies be the same if OP was 45, instead of 34? Assuming they want to retire at 60? I’m about 45 and would like to retire around 55. I’m not selling anything out, am continuing contributions 100% to equity funds i...