Search found 974 matches

by thx1138
Wed Aug 21, 2019 2:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Minimization of maximum regret: Supportive of balanced AAs for some long-term investors?
Replies: 95
Views: 4649

Re: Minimization of maximum regret: Supportive of balanced AAs for some long-term investors?

Telling someone that a 100% stock portfolio, for instance, will give them the highest probability of retirement success does not at all mean that it's optimal for an investor if his/her risk tolerance is such that s/he panic sells in a big stock downturn. I think in the terms of “regret” optimizati...
by thx1138
Wed Aug 21, 2019 12:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Minimization of maximum regret: Supportive of balanced AAs for some long-term investors?
Replies: 95
Views: 4649

Re: Minimization of maximum regret: Supportive of balanced AAs for some long-term investors?

Please everyone stop being sloppy with terms. - “Minimax/Maxmini” is a completely separate term from “regret”. “Minimax/maxmini” is an optimization method that can be applied to a variety of parameters. “Regret” is a particularly defined parameter that can be optimized a variety of ways. - In fact m...
by thx1138
Mon Aug 19, 2019 2:50 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Anyone retire in their 30s?
Replies: 94
Views: 10061

Re: Anyone retire in their 30s?

You say you are in “technical - engineering” and then that you are basically doing management/program management (meaning not very technical anymore). And that you can’t work less than 40 hrs. Yes if you go into middle management or program management you are likely going to be very stressed unless ...
by thx1138
Mon Aug 19, 2019 12:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Zero (or Negative) Interest Rates Could Someday Make Sense
Replies: 92
Views: 6470

Re: Why Zero (or Negative) Interest Rates Could Someday Make Sense

If one thinks about interest rates as the "market price of time preferences," there's no need for a logic jump between rates being simply low and rates being negative. These are just on the same continuum of market prices, as I understand it. But that's just it: I'm not convinced that positive and ...
by thx1138
Sun Aug 18, 2019 12:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Zero (or Negative) Interest Rates Could Someday Make Sense
Replies: 92
Views: 6470

Re: Why Zero (or Negative) Interest Rates Could Someday Make Sense

This might be confounded by emerging countries having lower life expectancy because of poverty, and high rates because of economic risk. Granted the regression is a simplistic exercise. But it seems that low life expectancy (for whatever reason) and high economic risk in poorer emerging countries t...
by thx1138
Sun Aug 18, 2019 12:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Minimization of maximum regret: Supportive of balanced AAs for some long-term investors?
Replies: 95
Views: 4649

Re: Minimization of maximum regret: Supportive of balanced AAs for some long-term investors?

Regret aversion is a very good explanation for why annuities are so unpopular. They do a very good job of true minimax/maxmini optimization of the absolute worst outcome. From a regret perspective (i.e. worst relative outcome) they are very poor - as are other extremely low risk solutions (e.g. TIPS...
by thx1138
Sat Aug 17, 2019 5:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Quick (without looking) what do you think YTD total return of US Bond Index is?
Replies: 46
Views: 3847

Re: Quick (without looking) what do you think YTD total return of US Bond Index is?

6% was my less than 5 seconds of thought guess. (Composed of two guesses really, a guess at the drop in the ten year interest rate and a guess at the duration of BND). To be honest because of the way you phrased it my less than five second guess for the next two questions was US Bond. With five seco...
by thx1138
Fri Aug 16, 2019 7:47 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Equifax is a joke
Replies: 14
Views: 2184

Re: Equifax is a joke

Okay, sure. I know what a man in the middle attack is. I work for a company that makes network security equipment. Arguing about what to call eavesdropping of physical mail is like arguing whether a car accident is a crash or a collision. We're describing the same thing. Fair point. :beer Your comp...
by thx1138
Fri Aug 16, 2019 1:52 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Moving for better public schools?
Replies: 60
Views: 4125

Re: Moving for better public schools?

School districts change over time - sometimes pretty fast. So do kids. Moving your household typically incurs high transaction costs and inconvenience. Changing private schools is comparatively easy. So if the choice really is down to move to a different district with an increase in housing expenses...
by thx1138
Thu Aug 15, 2019 11:09 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Equifax is a joke
Replies: 14
Views: 2184

Re: Equifax is a joke

Fax and USPS are in fact the preferred methods for sending sensitive personal information. UPS and FedEx fine as well though more expensive. They are doing exactly what nearly every security professional would recommend. I think you need to look up the term “man in the middle” as that doesn’t apply...
by thx1138
Thu Aug 15, 2019 10:34 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Equifax is a joke
Replies: 14
Views: 2184

Re: Equifax is a joke

Fax and USPS are in fact the preferred methods for sending sensitive personal information. UPS and FedEx fine as well though more expensive. They are doing exactly what nearly every security professional would recommend. I think you need to look up the term “man in the middle” as that doesn’t apply...
by thx1138
Thu Aug 15, 2019 9:30 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Equifax is a joke
Replies: 14
Views: 2184

Re: Equifax is a joke

Fax and USPS are in fact the preferred methods for sending sensitive personal information. UPS and FedEx fine as well though more expensive. They are doing exactly what nearly every security professional would recommend. I think you need to look up the term “man in the middle” as that doesn’t apply ...
by thx1138
Wed Aug 14, 2019 2:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Confused, bummed, and concerned
Replies: 74
Views: 10378

Re: Confused, bummed, and concerned

Right now people who are near retirement (i.e. done saving) have to look at the very high market valuations and very low interest rates and think “hmmm.... returns might not be so hot for a bit”. This isn’t a big deal if they’ve been saving and investing properly because markets have been on a tear ...
by thx1138
Tue Aug 13, 2019 8:38 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Friend Being Offered Variable & Indexed Universal Life for Tax-free Retirement Income
Replies: 46
Views: 2467

Re: Friend Being Offered Variable & Indexed Universal Life for Tax-free Retirement Income

If you use their assumption of 8% return then the correct IRA balance to compare to is 2.23M for 12,000 per year. Their return is for the SP 500 INDEX (not SP500 total return), so with dividends the 8% becomes upper-9%, very close to 10%. Unrealistic, but needs to be calculated in for an IRA balanc...
by thx1138
Tue Aug 13, 2019 8:07 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Friend Being Offered Variable & Indexed Universal Life for Tax-free Retirement Income
Replies: 46
Views: 2467

Re: Friend Being Offered Variable & Indexed Universal Life for Tax-free Retirement Income

How are you getting 1.1M? If you use their assumption of 8% return then the correct IRA balance to compare to is 2.23M for 12,000 per year. (Or 2.08M if you knock off the 720 per year for insurance). These are *nominal* and not *real* income and balance numbers the same as the insurance is listing. ...
by thx1138
Tue Aug 13, 2019 7:00 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Breaking a mortgage rate lock
Replies: 17
Views: 1197

Re: Breaking a mortgage lock

The reason why I asked was because the first lender called me and talked in a very frustrated manner. I didn't even tell him that I was pulling out my application. I just send him the better loan estimate and asked if he could match or beat that. He told me that I was kind of screwing him by pullin...
by thx1138
Tue Aug 13, 2019 6:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Switch AA 10-year to 2-year Treasuries?
Replies: 61
Views: 3834

Re: Switch AA 10-year to 2-year Treasuries?

Here’s a thread full of people worried about potentially permanent negative interest rates and discussing whether switching to 20-30 year treasuries is the right thing to do: https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=287897 Interest rates have “had nowhere to go but up” for almost a deca...
by thx1138
Tue Aug 13, 2019 6:17 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: House purchase (cash)... wire transfer or cashier's check?
Replies: 32
Views: 2032

Re: House purchase (cash)... wire transfer or cashier's check?

As others have said - do what the title company tells you to do and be proactive and ask them ahead of time what they want and figure out how long your bank takes to do that. The few transactions I’ve been in a cashiers check was not acceptable for large values. With the potential uncertainties of e...
by thx1138
Tue Aug 13, 2019 5:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: There And Back Again: My 180 Back To Simplicity
Replies: 7
Views: 1813

Re: There And Back Again: My 180 Back To Simplicity

Is this guy actually for real? I don’t expect it to take a major hit (job loss or pay cut) in an economic downturn or market meltdown. Somehow goes along with: Matt Tracey is an investment management professional in New York, focusing on portfolio strategy for institutional investors. I don't know R...
by thx1138
Mon Aug 12, 2019 8:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What would investors ever choose arbitrary allocation of US/nonUS stocks?
Replies: 60
Views: 3362

Re: What would investors ever choose arbitrary allocation of US/nonUS stocks?

No, it should not be equal weight, because proportionally these countries are of different sizes economy wise, so we should have the % whatever the actual, real % is aka "the index". ... But if you are weighting a small country with 2 million population the same as a country with 1 billion populati...
by thx1138
Mon Aug 12, 2019 7:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If you think oil prices will drop where would you invest?
Replies: 70
Views: 3501

Re: If you think oil prices will drop where would you invest?

misterno wrote:
Mon Aug 12, 2019 6:01 am
I wonder why chinese electric cars are never sold in USA

They are so cheap and sales volume is in millions in China
The answer to your question is a quick Google search away...
by thx1138
Sun Aug 11, 2019 7:18 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: No pay increase but increase in responsibility
Replies: 110
Views: 7961

Re: No pay increase but increase in responsibility

Taking your update a face value then the best thing to do is communicate clearly after you've thought carefully about what you are willing to do. Something along the lines of: 1. I'm happy to help out but because of my family situation I'm actually looking to reduce hours, not increase them. How can...
by thx1138
Sun Aug 11, 2019 6:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If you think oil prices will drop where would you invest?
Replies: 70
Views: 3501

Re: If you think oil prices will drop where would you invest?

What determines oil price is the marginal demand. If that goes away, oil price will drop dramatically Huh, I would have thought marginal supply was somehow a factor too. And something about elastic and inelasitc supply having different effects on price - that’s a thing isn’t it? Oh and I’m pretty s...
by thx1138
Sat Aug 10, 2019 8:25 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: No pay increase but increase in responsibility
Replies: 110
Views: 7961

Re: No pay increase but increase in responsibility

Based on your most recent post it seems like the correct solution for the company is not to offload management stuff to you since they are already short of your skill set and apparently aren’t willing to pay enough to increase their access to that skill set. Your niche expertise is harder to find th...
by thx1138
Fri Aug 09, 2019 12:30 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Pretty much broke --- what would you advise?
Replies: 85
Views: 9197

Re: Pretty much broke --- what would you advise?

Yes move the IRA out of stocks and into something more stable. It is essentially an emergency fund at this point. I wouldn't obsess too much about where it gets put. Every 1% of interest on that 30K is going to work out to a whopping $25/month. If they already have access to a MM or bond fund just d...
by thx1138
Fri Aug 09, 2019 5:45 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Silly question - what’s your largest non-essential item as a % of your net worth? Or, what is its dollar value?
Replies: 25
Views: 1755

Re: Silly question - what’s your largest non-essential item as a % of your net worth? Or, what is its dollar value?

I’d say our house being too big has got to be the largest non-essential expense for us by a wide margin. So call it maybe 250K or so more than something more reasonable? Bit less than 10% of NW. At least it is a non-depreciating asset though... Is something requiring maintenance and taxes though... ...
by thx1138
Thu Aug 08, 2019 8:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Come over to the Liability Matchng portfolio side: the water is fine
Replies: 170
Views: 10653

Re: Come over to the Liability Matchng portfolio side: the water is fine

i think for those without a pension, building a liability matching portfolio with a portion of one's assets and then eventually annuitizing can be a useful approach to retirement planning. My main point is that since the beginning of the year the cost of annuities has gone up 17% (again using LTPZ ...
by thx1138
Wed Aug 07, 2019 8:55 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Why won’t anyone hire me?
Replies: 156
Views: 14923

Re: Why won’t anyone hire me?

Sorry, that makes no sense. There are millions of office jobs. Only a tiny percent of those require SQL and Tableau. Agreed. No matter what specific software you're familiar with, especially outside of the usual Office suite, it's almost guaranteed that a new employer will use something else. Yes, ...
by thx1138
Wed Aug 07, 2019 7:37 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How to assess work culture and job security when applying for new jobs?
Replies: 7
Views: 868

Re: How to assess work culture and job security when applying for new jobs?

I want to avoid doing interviews when it is clear a job may not be a good fit. Or do I just assume everything will be great until I find out it's not? I doubt you are going to have so many interviews to need to sort through which ones to skip. Also the best way to evaluate the questions you have is...
by thx1138
Wed Aug 07, 2019 7:25 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Why won’t anyone hire me?
Replies: 156
Views: 14923

Re: Why won’t anyone hire me?

Entry-level skills for an office job would include knowledge of stuff like SQL and Tableau. Sorry, that makes no sense. There are millions of office jobs. Only a tiny percent of those require SQL and Tableau. Agreed. No matter what specific software you're familiar with, especially outside of the u...
by thx1138
Wed Aug 07, 2019 6:03 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Employer offering equity in company. What questions to ask?
Replies: 33
Views: 2484

Re: Employer offering equity in company. What questions to ask?

As to why I'm in this position, I know the answer but can't divulge all the details. Primarily I'm in this position because I'm a high performing director, not because the company is in need of money. If they actually wanted to reward you they would give you options or RSUs - not ask you for money ...
by thx1138
Mon Aug 05, 2019 5:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Calibrating your Confidence and Why It Matters for Investing
Replies: 9
Views: 800

Re: Calibrating your Confidence and Why It Matters for Investing

Although he may only know that a particular bet has only a 20% chance of paying off, he would know whether it is worth taking, as long as the payoff is at least 5x the wager. Um, no. That isn't at all the correct way to determine whether to take a wager. I'd review risk adjusted return if I were yo...
by thx1138
Mon Aug 05, 2019 1:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 11748
Views: 2017635

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Dual Momentum timing strategy is getting close to pulling the plug on equities. 10 month lookback has gone to cash Aug 1. 12 month lookback still holding on to US equities, but not by much. Do the trend followers even have their puffy neck collar things off from the last whiplash? (Yes, I know the ...
by thx1138
Mon Aug 05, 2019 12:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 11748
Views: 2017635

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Markets are in a free fall, but should get a sucker's rally at the 200dEMA next week. I'm nearly all out of equities as of yesterday waiting for the blood in the streets moment. Liquidity crisis seems to be building. Aug-Nov are shaping up to mirror Sept-Dec 2018. There's clearly a bearish wedge fo...
by thx1138
Mon Aug 05, 2019 12:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 11748
Views: 2017635

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Dual Momentum timing strategy is getting close to pulling the plug on equities. 10 month lookback has gone to cash Aug 1. 12 month lookback still holding on to US equities, but not by much. Do the trend followers even have their puffy neck collar things off from the last whiplash? (Yes, I know the ...
by thx1138
Sun Aug 04, 2019 7:01 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: A note on spending for kids
Replies: 148
Views: 10795

Re: A note on spending for kids

ROI? Who cares don’t forget childhood is 20% of our waking lives! Growth through experiences, and fun without any care. Focus on many activities plus a couple deep activities (when they show motivation). And pray tell how do sports and activities improve one's childhood? How are organized activitie...
by thx1138
Sat Aug 03, 2019 8:31 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Day care vs nanny for child care
Replies: 62
Views: 3344

Re: Day care vs nanny for childcare

There is a large variation in daycare options. There is a large variation in nanny options. There is a large variation in children. There is a large variation in parents. There is a large variation in family situations. Hence there is a large variation in what is "best". We went the daycare route in...
by thx1138
Fri Aug 02, 2019 12:51 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Insane to buy a sports car?
Replies: 210
Views: 9813

Re: Insane to buy a sports car?

I don't like cars so I can't give you direct advice about that. On the financial side of things I think common themes are that we sometimes do a poor job of estimating what will make us happy and what is "worth it" in that regard. So being able to change your mind at relatively low cost is advantage...
by thx1138
Fri Aug 02, 2019 6:31 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: A note on spending for kids
Replies: 148
Views: 10795

Re: A note on spending for kids

You gave some examples of inefficient spending on parenting. I'd be surprised if someone proved that there was no positive correlation between academic success, future earnings, and amount spent on education or activities during childhood. I don't know what is the efficient allocation - it depends ...
by thx1138
Thu Aug 01, 2019 5:09 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: A note on spending for kids
Replies: 148
Views: 10795

Re: A note on spending for kids

You gave some examples of inefficient spending on parenting. I'd be surprised if someone proved that there was no positive correlation between academic success, future earnings, and amount spent on education or activities during childhood. I don't know what is the efficient allocation - it depends ...
by thx1138
Sun Jul 28, 2019 7:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Come over to the Liability Matchng portfolio side: the water is fine
Replies: 170
Views: 10653

Re: Come over to the Liability Matchng portfolio side: the water is fine

Also I think a lot of this is framing. What i am basically advocating is using an LMP to re-create a pension that is 1/3 of one's salary. For folks who question that, i ask: if you actually HAD such a pension, would you really cash it in and invest the proceeds in stocks/bonds? That’s a false compa...
by thx1138
Wed Jul 17, 2019 11:13 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Working 4 days a week?
Replies: 39
Views: 3022

Re: Working 4 days a week?

I worked 9/80 for a few years and quite enjoyed it - especially since I was young with no obligations and lived right next to great outdoor activities. Having a three day weekend every other weekend was great. These days I'm 3/4 time (30 hrs a week) and boy does that extra 10 hrs a week make a *huge...
by thx1138
Mon Jul 15, 2019 3:18 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Children's Savings Account & FAFSA
Replies: 29
Views: 1530

Re: Children's Savings Account & FAFSA

Also realize that a large list of “elite” schools require the CSS beyond just FAFSA: https://profile.collegeboard.org/profile/ppi/participatingInstitutions.aspx CSS has far fewer asset exceptions than FAFSA. And as others pointed out probably should expect FAFSA to change between now and going to co...
by thx1138
Mon Jul 15, 2019 12:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard account “Your mutual funds are eligible for tax-free conversion to ETFs”
Replies: 21
Views: 2633

Re: Vanguard account “Your mutual funds are eligible for tax-free conversion to ETFs”

I am surprised that Vanguard's policy change hasn't been discussed more in this forum. Did folk not notice the SEC filings? There hasn't been a policy change. They just removed language from the SEC filing that had no real legal meaning in the first place. Corporate structure and policies identical...
by thx1138
Mon Jul 15, 2019 6:55 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Children's Savings Account & FAFSA
Replies: 29
Views: 1530

Re: Children's Savings Account & FAFSA

A very simple first measure is to just keep separate accounts still in your name. That way they are counted more favorably as parent assets.
by thx1138
Sun Jul 14, 2019 2:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: are TIPS expensive? or are they cheap?
Replies: 204
Views: 18176

Re: are TIPS expensive? or are they cheap?

I think Larry is misreading what the various posters here are saying his article claims. Larry appears to objecting that folks are saying he is claiming expected inflation is higher than estimates. But no one is saying he wrote that . Rather the statement made was that the article says estimates (no...
by thx1138
Sun Jul 14, 2019 7:05 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Add a second job? Trader Joes, Home depot, ???
Replies: 38
Views: 4907

Re: Add a second job? Trader Joes, Home depot, ???

Momus wrote:
Sun Jul 14, 2019 5:16 am
Uber/lyft at 20/hr.
10/hr after expenses according to multiple surveys and studies over the past few years.
by thx1138
Tue Jul 09, 2019 1:43 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Maryland 529 College Investment Plans
Replies: 37
Views: 4617

Re: Maryland 529 College Investment Plans

With 4 accounts as you indicate, they would only get 4 deductions. No, in Maryland you get to take two deductions per account (since each account has one beneficiary): one for each taxpayer/beneficiary combination. If a couple files jointly, they can deduct up to $5k per 529 account beneficiary. Fo...
by thx1138
Mon Jul 08, 2019 10:23 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Anyone itching to dabble in crypto?
Replies: 46
Views: 3118

Re: Anyone itching to dabble in crypto?

No, but I am getting interested in tulip bulbs. VERY interested...
by thx1138
Sun Jul 07, 2019 6:10 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Took out roth contributions for down payment, now getting massive tax bill?
Replies: 8
Views: 1953

Re: Took out roth contributions for down payment, now getting massive tax bill?

That totally could have happened. So this is fixable right? Like I can submit an amended 8606 or something? Definitely fixable, just need to document and fill out the correct forms for the IRS to know what your previous contributions were and what you withdrew. It’s been a number of years since I’v...