Search found 983 matches

by thx1138
Thu Nov 21, 2019 6:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: DFA adds another factor to its investment process
Replies: 4
Views: 634

Re: DFA adds another factor to its investment process

More seriously, as I read the article, firms with high "investment" seems to mean, in plain language, firms that spend a lot on R&D. Rizova and Saito are suggesting that, from the point of view of investors, R&D is a bad thing, and investors should avoid firms that do a lot of it... and, especially...
by thx1138
Mon Oct 28, 2019 6:18 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: I no longer plan on retiring early
Replies: 110
Views: 15168

Re: I no longer plan on retiring early

I'm fortunate to be in a career and with an employer where I can scale back hours. I stopped full time work about four years ago now and will probably never go back to it. Initially I went to half time because we were going to be in a different location for a year where I wanted to make the most of ...
by thx1138
Tue Oct 22, 2019 5:38 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Child Insurance Policies - Maintain or ?
Replies: 22
Views: 1242

Re: Child Insurance Policies - Maintain or ?

These things are in general horrible. Take the cash value, put it in a 529 and call it a day.
by thx1138
Sun Sep 15, 2019 8:44 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Would you spend an extra day a week for 1 year working for a luxury
Replies: 27
Views: 2536

Re: Would you spend an extra day a week for 1 year working for a luxury

No way. The greatest luxury and most limited resource in this world is time. Right now I already buy back time by only working 30 hrs a week. Hoping to get more towards 20 hrs. My answer of course assumes someone is already working at least as many hours as one wants to. Certainly for many of us we ...
by thx1138
Sun Sep 15, 2019 8:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Oil price going to a $100-- time to change your asset allocation??
Replies: 86
Views: 8683

Re: Oil price going to a $100-- time to change your asset allocation??

Production temporarily lost: 5m barrels/day Current oil in storage worldwide: 2,900m barrels So if no one manages to repair/replace the 5m barrel/day shortfall for say about a year then maybe time to worry about oil supply problems in the future. Right now a total non-issue. As far as the attack cau...
by thx1138
Wed Sep 04, 2019 3:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Index Funds Bubble? [Michael Burry article]
Replies: 242
Views: 28257

Re: Michael Burry: Index Funds are like Subprime CDOs

Not sure if there is any truth to this, and he seems to be referring to index linked fund vs indexes that actually own the stocks and have shares, actual voting rights etc. ? Yes - his primary objection in the article appears to not be the index funds themselves but rather the "trillions of dollars...
by thx1138
Wed Sep 04, 2019 9:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Index Funds Bubble? [Michael Burry article]
Replies: 242
Views: 28257

Re: Michael Burry: Index Funds are like Subprime CDOs

Not sure if there is any truth to this, and he seems to be referring to index linked fund vs indexes that actually own the stocks and have shares, actual voting rights etc. ? Yes - his primary objection in the article appears to not be the index funds themselves but rather the "trillions of dollars...
by thx1138
Thu Aug 22, 2019 12:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Chinese property bubble?
Replies: 59
Views: 2947

Re: Chinese property bubble?

How do we make this topic actionable? I would guess literally zero Bogleheads would invest in Chinese real estate. Some of us ended up with it nonetheless (inheritance) and would potentially need to evaluate whether to sell or hold and on what timescale. The insanity has been clear for awhile and I...
by thx1138
Thu Aug 22, 2019 9:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Chinese property bubble?
Replies: 59
Views: 2947

Re: Chinese property bubble?

Here’s an article on the issue: https://www.citylab.com/equity/2019/02/china-vacant-apartments-housing-market-bubble-ghost-cities/583528/ Again this isn’t about government owned vacant housing (which is a separate issue) but privately owned vacant housing. Article mentions government owned vacants a...
by thx1138
Wed Aug 21, 2019 2:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Minimization of maximum regret: Supportive of balanced AAs for some long-term investors?
Replies: 129
Views: 7493

Re: Minimization of maximum regret: Supportive of balanced AAs for some long-term investors?

Telling someone that a 100% stock portfolio, for instance, will give them the highest probability of retirement success does not at all mean that it's optimal for an investor if his/her risk tolerance is such that s/he panic sells in a big stock downturn. I think in the terms of “regret” optimizati...
by thx1138
Wed Aug 21, 2019 12:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Minimization of maximum regret: Supportive of balanced AAs for some long-term investors?
Replies: 129
Views: 7493

Re: Minimization of maximum regret: Supportive of balanced AAs for some long-term investors?

Please everyone stop being sloppy with terms. - “Minimax/Maxmini” is a completely separate term from “regret”. “Minimax/maxmini” is an optimization method that can be applied to a variety of parameters. “Regret” is a particularly defined parameter that can be optimized a variety of ways. - In fact m...
by thx1138
Mon Aug 19, 2019 2:50 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Anyone retire in their 30s?
Replies: 108
Views: 14481

Re: Anyone retire in their 30s?

You say you are in “technical - engineering” and then that you are basically doing management/program management (meaning not very technical anymore). And that you can’t work less than 40 hrs. Yes if you go into middle management or program management you are likely going to be very stressed unless ...
by thx1138
Mon Aug 19, 2019 12:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Zero (or Negative) Interest Rates Could Someday Make Sense
Replies: 92
Views: 6930

Re: Why Zero (or Negative) Interest Rates Could Someday Make Sense

If one thinks about interest rates as the "market price of time preferences," there's no need for a logic jump between rates being simply low and rates being negative. These are just on the same continuum of market prices, as I understand it. But that's just it: I'm not convinced that positive and ...
by thx1138
Sun Aug 18, 2019 12:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Zero (or Negative) Interest Rates Could Someday Make Sense
Replies: 92
Views: 6930

Re: Why Zero (or Negative) Interest Rates Could Someday Make Sense

This might be confounded by emerging countries having lower life expectancy because of poverty, and high rates because of economic risk. Granted the regression is a simplistic exercise. But it seems that low life expectancy (for whatever reason) and high economic risk in poorer emerging countries t...
by thx1138
Sun Aug 18, 2019 12:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Minimization of maximum regret: Supportive of balanced AAs for some long-term investors?
Replies: 129
Views: 7493

Re: Minimization of maximum regret: Supportive of balanced AAs for some long-term investors?

Regret aversion is a very good explanation for why annuities are so unpopular. They do a very good job of true minimax/maxmini optimization of the absolute worst outcome. From a regret perspective (i.e. worst relative outcome) they are very poor - as are other extremely low risk solutions (e.g. TIPS...
by thx1138
Sat Aug 17, 2019 5:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Quick (without looking) what do you think YTD total return of US Bond Index is?
Replies: 46
Views: 4350

Re: Quick (without looking) what do you think YTD total return of US Bond Index is?

6% was my less than 5 seconds of thought guess. (Composed of two guesses really, a guess at the drop in the ten year interest rate and a guess at the duration of BND). To be honest because of the way you phrased it my less than five second guess for the next two questions was US Bond. With five seco...
by thx1138
Fri Aug 16, 2019 7:47 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Equifax is a joke
Replies: 14
Views: 2336

Re: Equifax is a joke

Okay, sure. I know what a man in the middle attack is. I work for a company that makes network security equipment. Arguing about what to call eavesdropping of physical mail is like arguing whether a car accident is a crash or a collision. We're describing the same thing. Fair point. :beer Your comp...
by thx1138
Fri Aug 16, 2019 1:52 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Moving for better public schools?
Replies: 64
Views: 5535

Re: Moving for better public schools?

School districts change over time - sometimes pretty fast. So do kids. Moving your household typically incurs high transaction costs and inconvenience. Changing private schools is comparatively easy. So if the choice really is down to move to a different district with an increase in housing expenses...
by thx1138
Thu Aug 15, 2019 11:09 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Equifax is a joke
Replies: 14
Views: 2336

Re: Equifax is a joke

Fax and USPS are in fact the preferred methods for sending sensitive personal information. UPS and FedEx fine as well though more expensive. They are doing exactly what nearly every security professional would recommend. I think you need to look up the term “man in the middle” as that doesn’t apply...
by thx1138
Thu Aug 15, 2019 10:34 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Equifax is a joke
Replies: 14
Views: 2336

Re: Equifax is a joke

Fax and USPS are in fact the preferred methods for sending sensitive personal information. UPS and FedEx fine as well though more expensive. They are doing exactly what nearly every security professional would recommend. I think you need to look up the term “man in the middle” as that doesn’t apply...
by thx1138
Thu Aug 15, 2019 9:30 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Equifax is a joke
Replies: 14
Views: 2336

Re: Equifax is a joke

Fax and USPS are in fact the preferred methods for sending sensitive personal information. UPS and FedEx fine as well though more expensive. They are doing exactly what nearly every security professional would recommend. I think you need to look up the term “man in the middle” as that doesn’t apply ...
by thx1138
Wed Aug 14, 2019 2:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Confused, bummed, and concerned
Replies: 74
Views: 10917

Re: Confused, bummed, and concerned

Right now people who are near retirement (i.e. done saving) have to look at the very high market valuations and very low interest rates and think “hmmm.... returns might not be so hot for a bit”. This isn’t a big deal if they’ve been saving and investing properly because markets have been on a tear ...
by thx1138
Tue Aug 13, 2019 8:38 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Friend Being Offered Variable & Indexed Universal Life for Tax-free Retirement Income
Replies: 46
Views: 2794

Re: Friend Being Offered Variable & Indexed Universal Life for Tax-free Retirement Income

If you use their assumption of 8% return then the correct IRA balance to compare to is 2.23M for 12,000 per year. Their return is for the SP 500 INDEX (not SP500 total return), so with dividends the 8% becomes upper-9%, very close to 10%. Unrealistic, but needs to be calculated in for an IRA balanc...
by thx1138
Tue Aug 13, 2019 8:07 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Friend Being Offered Variable & Indexed Universal Life for Tax-free Retirement Income
Replies: 46
Views: 2794

Re: Friend Being Offered Variable & Indexed Universal Life for Tax-free Retirement Income

How are you getting 1.1M? If you use their assumption of 8% return then the correct IRA balance to compare to is 2.23M for 12,000 per year. (Or 2.08M if you knock off the 720 per year for insurance). These are *nominal* and not *real* income and balance numbers the same as the insurance is listing. ...
by thx1138
Tue Aug 13, 2019 7:00 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Breaking a mortgage rate lock
Replies: 17
Views: 1288

Re: Breaking a mortgage lock

The reason why I asked was because the first lender called me and talked in a very frustrated manner. I didn't even tell him that I was pulling out my application. I just send him the better loan estimate and asked if he could match or beat that. He told me that I was kind of screwing him by pullin...
by thx1138
Tue Aug 13, 2019 6:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Switch AA 10-year to 2-year Treasuries?
Replies: 61
Views: 4442

Re: Switch AA 10-year to 2-year Treasuries?

Here’s a thread full of people worried about potentially permanent negative interest rates and discussing whether switching to 20-30 year treasuries is the right thing to do: https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=287897 Interest rates have “had nowhere to go but up” for almost a deca...
by thx1138
Tue Aug 13, 2019 6:17 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: House purchase (cash)... wire transfer or cashier's check?
Replies: 32
Views: 2413

Re: House purchase (cash)... wire transfer or cashier's check?

As others have said - do what the title company tells you to do and be proactive and ask them ahead of time what they want and figure out how long your bank takes to do that. The few transactions I’ve been in a cashiers check was not acceptable for large values. With the potential uncertainties of e...
by thx1138
Tue Aug 13, 2019 5:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: There And Back Again: My 180 Back To Simplicity
Replies: 15
Views: 4029

Re: There And Back Again: My 180 Back To Simplicity

Is this guy actually for real? I don’t expect it to take a major hit (job loss or pay cut) in an economic downturn or market meltdown. Somehow goes along with: Matt Tracey is an investment management professional in New York, focusing on portfolio strategy for institutional investors. I don't know R...
by thx1138
Mon Aug 12, 2019 8:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What would investors ever choose arbitrary allocation of US/nonUS stocks?
Replies: 68
Views: 5065

Re: What would investors ever choose arbitrary allocation of US/nonUS stocks?

No, it should not be equal weight, because proportionally these countries are of different sizes economy wise, so we should have the % whatever the actual, real % is aka "the index". ... But if you are weighting a small country with 2 million population the same as a country with 1 billion populati...
by thx1138
Mon Aug 12, 2019 7:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If you think oil prices will drop where would you invest?
Replies: 70
Views: 4000

Re: If you think oil prices will drop where would you invest?

misterno wrote:
Mon Aug 12, 2019 6:01 am
I wonder why chinese electric cars are never sold in USA

They are so cheap and sales volume is in millions in China
The answer to your question is a quick Google search away...
by thx1138
Sun Aug 11, 2019 7:18 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: No pay increase but increase in responsibility
Replies: 110
Views: 8711

Re: No pay increase but increase in responsibility

Taking your update a face value then the best thing to do is communicate clearly after you've thought carefully about what you are willing to do. Something along the lines of: 1. I'm happy to help out but because of my family situation I'm actually looking to reduce hours, not increase them. How can...
by thx1138
Sun Aug 11, 2019 6:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If you think oil prices will drop where would you invest?
Replies: 70
Views: 4000

Re: If you think oil prices will drop where would you invest?

What determines oil price is the marginal demand. If that goes away, oil price will drop dramatically Huh, I would have thought marginal supply was somehow a factor too. And something about elastic and inelasitc supply having different effects on price - that’s a thing isn’t it? Oh and I’m pretty s...
by thx1138
Sat Aug 10, 2019 8:25 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: No pay increase but increase in responsibility
Replies: 110
Views: 8711

Re: No pay increase but increase in responsibility

Based on your most recent post it seems like the correct solution for the company is not to offload management stuff to you since they are already short of your skill set and apparently aren’t willing to pay enough to increase their access to that skill set. Your niche expertise is harder to find th...
by thx1138
Fri Aug 09, 2019 12:30 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Pretty much broke --- what would you advise?
Replies: 85
Views: 9969

Re: Pretty much broke --- what would you advise?

Yes move the IRA out of stocks and into something more stable. It is essentially an emergency fund at this point. I wouldn't obsess too much about where it gets put. Every 1% of interest on that 30K is going to work out to a whopping $25/month. If they already have access to a MM or bond fund just d...
by thx1138
Fri Aug 09, 2019 5:45 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Silly question - what’s your largest non-essential item as a % of your net worth? Or, what is its dollar value?
Replies: 25
Views: 1865

Re: Silly question - what’s your largest non-essential item as a % of your net worth? Or, what is its dollar value?

I’d say our house being too big has got to be the largest non-essential expense for us by a wide margin. So call it maybe 250K or so more than something more reasonable? Bit less than 10% of NW. At least it is a non-depreciating asset though... Is something requiring maintenance and taxes though... ...
by thx1138
Thu Aug 08, 2019 8:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Come over to the Liability Matchng portfolio side: the water is fine
Replies: 170
Views: 11909

Re: Come over to the Liability Matchng portfolio side: the water is fine

i think for those without a pension, building a liability matching portfolio with a portion of one's assets and then eventually annuitizing can be a useful approach to retirement planning. My main point is that since the beginning of the year the cost of annuities has gone up 17% (again using LTPZ ...
by thx1138
Wed Aug 07, 2019 8:55 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Why won’t anyone hire me?
Replies: 156
Views: 15878

Re: Why won’t anyone hire me?

Sorry, that makes no sense. There are millions of office jobs. Only a tiny percent of those require SQL and Tableau. Agreed. No matter what specific software you're familiar with, especially outside of the usual Office suite, it's almost guaranteed that a new employer will use something else. Yes, ...
by thx1138
Wed Aug 07, 2019 7:37 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How to assess work culture and job security when applying for new jobs?
Replies: 7
Views: 947

Re: How to assess work culture and job security when applying for new jobs?

I want to avoid doing interviews when it is clear a job may not be a good fit. Or do I just assume everything will be great until I find out it's not? I doubt you are going to have so many interviews to need to sort through which ones to skip. Also the best way to evaluate the questions you have is...
by thx1138
Wed Aug 07, 2019 7:25 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Why won’t anyone hire me?
Replies: 156
Views: 15878

Re: Why won’t anyone hire me?

Entry-level skills for an office job would include knowledge of stuff like SQL and Tableau. Sorry, that makes no sense. There are millions of office jobs. Only a tiny percent of those require SQL and Tableau. Agreed. No matter what specific software you're familiar with, especially outside of the u...
by thx1138
Wed Aug 07, 2019 6:03 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Employer offering equity in company. What questions to ask?
Replies: 37
Views: 3165

Re: Employer offering equity in company. What questions to ask?

As to why I'm in this position, I know the answer but can't divulge all the details. Primarily I'm in this position because I'm a high performing director, not because the company is in need of money. If they actually wanted to reward you they would give you options or RSUs - not ask you for money ...
by thx1138
Mon Aug 05, 2019 5:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Calibrating your Confidence and Why It Matters for Investing
Replies: 9
Views: 874

Re: Calibrating your Confidence and Why It Matters for Investing

Although he may only know that a particular bet has only a 20% chance of paying off, he would know whether it is worth taking, as long as the payoff is at least 5x the wager. Um, no. That isn't at all the correct way to determine whether to take a wager. I'd review risk adjusted return if I were yo...
by thx1138
Mon Aug 05, 2019 1:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 12344
Views: 2132021

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Dual Momentum timing strategy is getting close to pulling the plug on equities. 10 month lookback has gone to cash Aug 1. 12 month lookback still holding on to US equities, but not by much. Do the trend followers even have their puffy neck collar things off from the last whiplash? (Yes, I know the ...
by thx1138
Mon Aug 05, 2019 12:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 12344
Views: 2132021

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Markets are in a free fall, but should get a sucker's rally at the 200dEMA next week. I'm nearly all out of equities as of yesterday waiting for the blood in the streets moment. Liquidity crisis seems to be building. Aug-Nov are shaping up to mirror Sept-Dec 2018. There's clearly a bearish wedge fo...
by thx1138
Mon Aug 05, 2019 12:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 12344
Views: 2132021

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Dual Momentum timing strategy is getting close to pulling the plug on equities. 10 month lookback has gone to cash Aug 1. 12 month lookback still holding on to US equities, but not by much. Do the trend followers even have their puffy neck collar things off from the last whiplash? (Yes, I know the ...
by thx1138
Sun Aug 04, 2019 7:01 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: A note on spending for kids
Replies: 148
Views: 11678

Re: A note on spending for kids

ROI? Who cares don’t forget childhood is 20% of our waking lives! Growth through experiences, and fun without any care. Focus on many activities plus a couple deep activities (when they show motivation). And pray tell how do sports and activities improve one's childhood? How are organized activitie...
by thx1138
Sat Aug 03, 2019 8:31 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Day care vs nanny for child care
Replies: 62
Views: 3705

Re: Day care vs nanny for childcare

There is a large variation in daycare options. There is a large variation in nanny options. There is a large variation in children. There is a large variation in parents. There is a large variation in family situations. Hence there is a large variation in what is "best". We went the daycare route in...
by thx1138
Fri Aug 02, 2019 12:51 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Insane to buy a sports car?
Replies: 215
Views: 12080

Re: Insane to buy a sports car?

I don't like cars so I can't give you direct advice about that. On the financial side of things I think common themes are that we sometimes do a poor job of estimating what will make us happy and what is "worth it" in that regard. So being able to change your mind at relatively low cost is advantage...
by thx1138
Fri Aug 02, 2019 6:31 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: A note on spending for kids
Replies: 148
Views: 11678

Re: A note on spending for kids

You gave some examples of inefficient spending on parenting. I'd be surprised if someone proved that there was no positive correlation between academic success, future earnings, and amount spent on education or activities during childhood. I don't know what is the efficient allocation - it depends ...
by thx1138
Thu Aug 01, 2019 5:09 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: A note on spending for kids
Replies: 148
Views: 11678

Re: A note on spending for kids

You gave some examples of inefficient spending on parenting. I'd be surprised if someone proved that there was no positive correlation between academic success, future earnings, and amount spent on education or activities during childhood. I don't know what is the efficient allocation - it depends ...
by thx1138
Sun Jul 28, 2019 7:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Come over to the Liability Matchng portfolio side: the water is fine
Replies: 170
Views: 11909

Re: Come over to the Liability Matchng portfolio side: the water is fine

Also I think a lot of this is framing. What i am basically advocating is using an LMP to re-create a pension that is 1/3 of one's salary. For folks who question that, i ask: if you actually HAD such a pension, would you really cash it in and invest the proceeds in stocks/bonds? That’s a false compa...