Search found 114 matches

by Ciel
Fri Oct 16, 2020 8:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Seriously, what is going on with international?
Replies: 216
Views: 19704

Re: Seriously, what is going on with international?

I too appreciate all the thoughts in this thread. So far I've chosen to stay the course with Vanguard Total World Stock and a VG target date fund but I really don't feel great about it and think there are many valid reasons to reduce international allocation. What keeps me on course is the belief t...
by Ciel
Fri Oct 16, 2020 3:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Seriously, what is going on with international?
Replies: 216
Views: 19704

Re: Seriously, what is going on with international?

I too appreciate all the thoughts in this thread. So far I've chosen to stay the course with Vanguard Total World Stock and a VG target date fund but I really don't feel great about it and think there are many valid reasons to reduce international allocation. What keeps me on course is the belief th...
by Ciel
Tue Oct 06, 2020 4:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 9406
Views: 753153

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Days like today would make a single thread more convenient: "U.S. stocks continue to fluctuate"
by Ciel
Sat Oct 03, 2020 4:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [President tests positive for COVID-19 - market impacts]
Replies: 157
Views: 15899

Re: [President tests positive for COVID-19 - market impacts]

In isolation, I wouldn't expect the president's diagnosis to have much of a market impact. If he were to go on supplemental oxygen (which he is now not on), that might make things more volatile due to increased uncertainty. The only thing that seems almost certain at this point is high expected vola...
by Ciel
Mon Sep 21, 2020 12:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 20470
Views: 2787488

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

WSJ reported today that VIX is at its highest level "in almost two weeks."

Our sense of time has warped when less than a fortnight is made out to be some kind of prolonged period in the market.
by Ciel
Sun Sep 20, 2020 12:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Reasons to invest internationally, or not.
Replies: 191
Views: 10990

Re: Reasons to invest internationally, or not.

Regarding the discussion of foreign tax withholding: Foreign companies withhold some of the cash owed to U.S. investors to pay taxes on those dividends. And these tax rates can be rather punitive. Countries like Germany, Switzerland, and Australia can levy institutional tax rates on dividends of 30...
by Ciel
Sun Sep 20, 2020 1:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Reasons to invest internationally, or not.
Replies: 191
Views: 10990

Re: Reasons to invest internationally, or not.

Edit: According to a poster in this thread https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=299607 the average amount withheld in VTIAX by foreign governments is about 7%. If the average dividend yield over the past decade is about 3.2% and that approximate 7% figure is correct, then the drag from ...
by Ciel
Wed Sep 16, 2020 12:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Reasons to invest internationally, or not.
Replies: 191
Views: 10990

Re: Reasons to invest internationally, or not.

The academic literature suggests dividend withholding taxes are a real drain on foreign equity investments. Generally, foreign countries withhold more than 15% of the dividends, the U.S. allows a foreign tax credit claim of 15%, and the investor then has to make a claim in the foreign county for a ...
by Ciel
Tue Sep 15, 2020 10:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Reasons to invest internationally, or not.
Replies: 191
Views: 10990

Re: Reasons to invest internationally, or not.

The academic literature suggests dividend withholding taxes are a real drain on foreign equity investments. Generally, foreign countries withhold more than 15% of the dividends, the U.S. allows a foreign tax credit claim of 15%, and the investor then has to make a claim in the foreign county for a ...
by Ciel
Tue Sep 15, 2020 1:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Reasons to invest internationally, or not.
Replies: 191
Views: 10990

Re: Reasons to invest internationally, or not.

The real arguments are around tax drag & foreign exchange risk (against) v diversification (for). Instead we wind up discussing Chinese and Italian demographics. Is it known how much on average these factors (tax drag, currency risk) have brought down ex-US returns? Any good way to estimate this? S...
by Ciel
Tue Sep 15, 2020 1:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Reasons to invest internationally, or not.
Replies: 191
Views: 10990

Re: Reasons to invest internationally, or not.

The real arguments are around tax drag & foreign exchange risk (against) v diversification (for). Instead we wind up discussing Chinese and Italian demographics. Is it known how much on average these factors (tax drag, currency risk) have brought down ex-US returns? Any good way to estimate this? S...
by Ciel
Mon Sep 14, 2020 3:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: For those concerned about International Stocks...
Replies: 168
Views: 15878

Re: For those concerned about International Stocks...

asif, that is insightful information, thank you.
by Ciel
Mon Sep 14, 2020 12:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: For those concerned about International Stocks...
Replies: 168
Views: 15878

Re: For those concerned about International Stocks...

Using Portfolio Visualizer, since 1986 ex-us equity has under-performed US equity by 3.74% per year. That's 34 years. $10,000 in 1986 would now be $322,348 for US and $281,570 for ex-US. So, how many years would ex-US equity now need to out-perform US equity just to break even, and if that happens,...
by Ciel
Fri Sep 11, 2020 1:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International stock investing is industry diversification and style diversification
Replies: 92
Views: 7152

Re: International stock investing is industry diversification and style diversification

Admittedly I'm growing skeptical of my global market weight asset allocation. This topic got me wondering -- would a dynamic allocation to international make sense? For example, increasing international allocation after a one year period of ex-US outperforming, but otherwise tilting to US. It looks ...
by Ciel
Mon Sep 07, 2020 5:00 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Does it ever make sense to wait to sell a large stock holding instead of immediately diversifying?
Replies: 40
Views: 1751

Re: Does it ever make sense to wait to sell a large stock holding instead of immediately diversifying?

Thanks for the thoughts. Question about my new allocation: Would VTI/VXUS be a better allocation than VT in my taxable account with this money? I'm not going to add any new contributions to this account, so I can't use new contributions for rebalancing. VT would eliminate the need to sell to rebala...
by Ciel
Mon Sep 07, 2020 12:53 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Does it ever make sense to wait to sell a large stock holding instead of immediately diversifying?
Replies: 40
Views: 1751

Re: Does it ever make sense to wait to sell a large stock holding instead of immediately diversifying?

Thanks for the thoughts. Question about my new allocation: Would VTI/VXUS be a better allocation than VT in my taxable account with this money? I'm not going to add any new contributions to this account, so I can't use new contributions for rebalancing. VT would eliminate the need to sell to rebalan...
by Ciel
Sun Sep 06, 2020 10:46 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Does it ever make sense to wait to sell a large stock holding instead of immediately diversifying?
Replies: 40
Views: 1751

Re: Does it ever make sense to wait to sell a large stock holding instead of immediately diversifying?

Some thoughts... I assume you are in a relatively low tax bracket? If so, would selling hurt so much? VT in taxable doesn't get a foreign tax credit. Yes I'm in a relatively low bracket (22% federal). Plus ~7% state tax. However, my basis is about a quarter of the current share price, so it will be...
by Ciel
Sun Sep 06, 2020 10:43 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Does it ever make sense to wait to sell a large stock holding instead of immediately diversifying?
Replies: 40
Views: 1751

Re: Does it ever make sense to wait to sell a large stock holding instead of immediately diversifying?

VT in taxable doesn't get a foreign tax credit. By the way, would this make it a poor choice for a taxable account? To the extent that I should look at VTI instead? I own VTI and VEA separately in taxable. Thanks for the tip. Just curious, do you hold them in roughly the same proportion to approxim...
by Ciel
Sun Sep 06, 2020 10:29 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Does it ever make sense to wait to sell a large stock holding instead of immediately diversifying?
Replies: 40
Views: 1751

Re: Does it ever make sense to wait to sell a large stock holding instead of immediately diversifying?

000 wrote: Sun Sep 06, 2020 10:20 pm VT in taxable doesn't get a foreign tax credit.
By the way, would this make it a poor choice for a taxable account? To the extent that I should look at VTI instead?
by Ciel
Sun Sep 06, 2020 10:27 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Does it ever make sense to wait to sell a large stock holding instead of immediately diversifying?
Replies: 40
Views: 1751

Re: Does it ever make sense to wait to sell a large stock holding instead of immediately diversifying?

It's literally a matter of the dividend income meeting the gap between my income and expenses when I max out my 401k. I realize I could theoretically sell some VT every year for the same effect (or reduce my expenses) but there's something about receiving the dividend income passively without selli...
by Ciel
Sun Sep 06, 2020 10:26 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Does it ever make sense to wait to sell a large stock holding instead of immediately diversifying?
Replies: 40
Views: 1751

Re: Does it ever make sense to wait to sell a large stock holding instead of immediately diversifying?

Some thoughts... I assume you are in a relatively low tax bracket? If so, would selling hurt so much? VT in taxable doesn't get a foreign tax credit. Yes I'm in a relatively low bracket (22% federal). Plus ~7% state tax. However, my basis is about a quarter of the current share price, so it will be...
by Ciel
Sun Sep 06, 2020 10:22 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Does it ever make sense to wait to sell a large stock holding instead of immediately diversifying?
Replies: 40
Views: 1751

Re: Does it ever make sense to wait to sell a large stock holding instead of immediately diversifying?

I think I see why the dividends are more attractive to me, actually: It's a psychological defense against selling shares to meet expenses. I'm not comfortable with actually selling stock off for that reason, so I would just reduce my 401k contribution.
by Ciel
Sun Sep 06, 2020 10:17 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Does it ever make sense to wait to sell a large stock holding instead of immediately diversifying?
Replies: 40
Views: 1751

Re: Does it ever make sense to wait to sell a large stock holding instead of immediately diversifying?

OK, I can see how if the dividend amount is exactly the amount you want to spend, it's not horrible. Still, it's taxed no more favorably than capital gains. Depends on the State. OP, to me personally, the concentration risk of a single stock at 30% is worse than paying some taxes to sell it. This i...
by Ciel
Sun Sep 06, 2020 9:48 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Does it ever make sense to wait to sell a large stock holding instead of immediately diversifying?
Replies: 40
Views: 1751

Does it ever make sense to wait to sell a large stock holding instead of immediately diversifying?

70% (401k + Roth) of my portfolio is in VT (Vanguard total world stock ETF) or in a Vanguard 90/10 target date fund. The other 30% is in 3M stock (in taxable). I'm 30. I've been wanting to diversify out of the 3M stock and into VT for a while. Behaviorally, I've been finding it impossible to pull th...
by Ciel
Sat Sep 05, 2020 11:33 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Share your net worth progression
Replies: 1934
Views: 472717

Re: Share your net worth progression

In case any readers of this thread need a healthy dose of reality/perspective, check out the NY Times net worth ranker: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/08/12/upshot/are-you-rich-where-does-your-net-worth-rank-wealth.html Many of the responses in this thread are those in the 99th percentile ...
by Ciel
Sat Sep 05, 2020 1:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is it really passive index if S&P actively excludes Tesla?
Replies: 154
Views: 11180

Re: Is it really passive index if S&P actively excludes Tesla?

I cannot remember any stock before TSLA that made so many people upset, on all sides. A majority of the Tesla threads here at Bogleheads are people suffering emotional distress, sometimes severe, because of TSLA. Some people are upset that S&P hasn't yet included TSLA in the 500 Index. Other people...
by Ciel
Fri Sep 04, 2020 9:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How do you *say* "ERISA"
Replies: 37
Views: 2148

Re: How do you *say* "ERISA"

I thought it was er-iss-uh.
by Ciel
Thu Sep 03, 2020 3:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 6601
Views: 625021

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

I bailed on the HFEA Tuesday. Wednesday's performance stung a little bit but today affirmed my decision that I just don't have the stomach for this (specifically a leveraged downturn in stocks with limited ability of Treasuries to protect). I realize it's a long term strategy with wild expected vola...
by Ciel
Mon Aug 31, 2020 1:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 6601
Views: 625021

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Haven't stopped by in a while. Is anyone bailing out of the HF EA at the current highs? I'm probably bailing this week. I went in with part of my Roth in April, and now I'm up about 40%. At the time I really did intend to go along with the intent of this -- committing a certain amount to the wild v...
by Ciel
Sat Aug 08, 2020 7:57 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: HSA for OTC medications
Replies: 4
Views: 471

Re: HSA for OTC medications

That's a good list but this is the item I'm hung up on:
Over-the-counter
(OTC) treatments
containing medicine–
cold treatments,
ointments, pain
relievers, stomach
remedies, etc
by Ciel
Sat Aug 08, 2020 7:47 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: HSA for OTC medications
Replies: 4
Views: 471

HSA for OTC medications

The CARES Act retroactively made OTC meds reimbursable through an HSA from the start of the year. I'm trying to figure out what is actually considered a medication for this purpose. It looks like sunscreen counts. What about medicated mouthwash that helps prevent gingivitis? Saline nasal spray? Tons...
by Ciel
Fri Aug 07, 2020 3:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why not 100% PSLDX?
Replies: 580
Views: 60401

Re: Why not 100% PSLDX?

I like the idea of this fund and it seems well executed. Ultimately, I decided it's not for me.

I'm curious though, for those who have a significant % of assets in this fund, what is your exit strategy?
by Ciel
Tue Jul 28, 2020 1:25 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Way out of financial catastrophe?
Replies: 94
Views: 16007

Re: Way out of financial catastrophe?

I can't imagine the stress of this ordeal. I'm glad that your family is past the worst of it.
fyre4ce wrote: Mon Jul 27, 2020 10:58 pm I wonder if there were any kind of insurance that would cover this sort of thing.
I'm wondering this too.
by Ciel
Mon Jul 27, 2020 9:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any interest in concise guide to HEDGEFUNDIE 3x Leveraged ETF Excellent Adventure?
Replies: 128
Views: 11803

Re: Any interest in concise guide to HEDGEFUNDIE 3x Leveraged ETF Excellent Adventure?

Well stated, MP. Thanks for gauging interest in this and potentially volunteering your time. Let's try a thought experiment. I could read all the academic literature. I could talk to Vanguard reps. I could read white papers from Vanguard. I could also read through this forum. Or a fantastic place to...
by Ciel
Mon Jul 27, 2020 2:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any interest in concise guide to HEDGEFUNDIE 3x Leveraged ETF Excellent Adventure?
Replies: 128
Views: 11803

Re: Any interest in concise guide to HEDGEFUNDIE 3x Leveraged ETF Excellent Adventure?

I'm not sure if "concise guide" is the right term, but I would be very interested in a "Cliff's Notes" of the total discussion. One poster in this thread estimated it would take him a dozen hours to read through all of the discussion. I think it would take me several times that. Many of the posts i...
by Ciel
Mon Jul 27, 2020 1:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any interest in concise guide to HEDGEFUNDIE 3x Leveraged ETF Excellent Adventure?
Replies: 128
Views: 11803

Re: Any interest in concise guide to HEDGEFUNDIE 3x Leveraged ETF Excellent Adventure?

I'm not sure if "concise guide" is the right term, but I would be very interested in a "Cliff's Notes" of the total discussion. One poster in this thread estimated it would take him a dozen hours to read through all of the discussion. I think it would take me several times that. Many of the posts in...
by Ciel
Tue Jul 14, 2020 3:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 9406
Views: 753153

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

I'm so tempted to pull out of stocks now. It feels like we could be at "peak greed." Alas, that probably means I'm totally wrong about that, as I've been wrong about most things this year.
by Ciel
Tue Jul 07, 2020 8:24 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Neighborhood Noise
Replies: 189
Views: 13436

Re: Neighborhood Noise

Surprising that so many others here have had this problem. My solution was soft, moldable silicone ear plugs (which are comfortable while side sleeping) in addition to a LOUD white noise machine. Be sure to put the ear plugs in before turning the sound machine on. I live in a downtown condo with fir...
by Ciel
Tue Jul 07, 2020 3:20 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How would permanent WFH reshape Silicon Valley?
Replies: 79
Views: 6663

Re: How would permanent WFH reshape Silicon Valley?

You don't need massive movements to change the complexion of a market. If the pandemic has shown anything, it's just how fragile some of these interlinks are - we've been optimizing for a world that doesn't exist any longer. Just a 10% drop over here, a 10% increase over there can throw logistics o...
by Ciel
Tue Jul 07, 2020 1:40 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How would permanent WFH reshape Silicon Valley?
Replies: 79
Views: 6663

Re: How would permanent WFH reshape Silicon Valley?

I live in Silicon Valley and work at a FAANG company. Historically the company where I work has been anti-WFH. It was allowed but only occasionally, and I've seen people get in trouble for overusing it (albeit in cases where the person's output was very low). Managers were not allowed to hire remot...
by Ciel
Tue Jul 07, 2020 4:01 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How would permanent WFH reshape Silicon Valley?
Replies: 79
Views: 6663

How would permanent WFH reshape Silicon Valley?

As someone considering a move to Silicon Valley, I find myself wondering how the area might be reshaped by increasing trends towards totally remote work. Does anyone predict that the character of the area will be drastically changed by this over the next decade? Would it even get to the point where ...
by Ciel
Wed Jun 03, 2020 2:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Lifecycle Investing - Leveraging when young
Replies: 1077
Views: 106214

Re: Lifecycle Investing - Leveraging when young

I don't invest taxable but max my tax advantaged space. LEAPS in an IRA is a possibility for leverage, but it seems like it's impossible to get permission from a brokerage to trade options without prior experience doing so (without lying on the application, which is a route I don't want to go down)...
by Ciel
Tue Jun 02, 2020 3:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Lifecycle Investing - Leveraging when young
Replies: 1077
Views: 106214

Re: Lifecycle Investing - Leveraging when young

I just read the Ayres and Nalebuff book. I find their argument and research compelling. However, the only actionable advice I really got from the book is to go 100% equities. I don't invest taxable but max my tax advantaged space. LEAPS in an IRA is a possibility for leverage, but it seems like it's...
by Ciel
Sat May 02, 2020 9:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Lifecycle Investing - Still the Right Strategy
Replies: 82
Views: 4587

Re: Lifecycle Investing - Still the Right Strategy

Does this strategy advocate that a young investor forego using his 401k (beyond employer match) in order to invest in taxable accounts to obtain the desired 2:1 leverage (or as close to that as possible)? Clearly, maxing out an IRA and using it for leverage would be important for such an investor if...
by Ciel
Sun Apr 26, 2020 3:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 6601
Views: 625021

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

This strategy is hugely attractive for a young saver wanting to allocate a small portion of his portfolio to it. In the current environment, does it make sense to wait until market volatility subsides more to start this? I worry about high market volatility right at the onset of this, with the under...
by Ciel
Thu Jul 04, 2019 3:23 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Tax basis for consigned violin
Replies: 9
Views: 1369

Re: Tax basis for consigned violin

Thanks for that warning, you're probably right. I'll double check, though at a minimum it looks like I won't owe any taxes if it's sold.
by Ciel
Thu Jul 04, 2019 3:02 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Tax basis for consigned violin
Replies: 9
Views: 1369

Re: Tax basis for consigned violin

Thesaints wrote: Tue Jul 02, 2019 6:34 pm Are you trying to take a capital loss on the sale ?
If I can indeed add repair costs to the basis, it looks like this will be a capital loss overall.

Thanks for the replies.
by Ciel
Tue Jul 02, 2019 3:13 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Tax basis for consigned violin
Replies: 9
Views: 1369

Re: Tax basis for consigned violin

You're right, I should have phrased it that way.

Does anyone have an understanding of how this situation comports with tax code?
by Ciel
Tue Jul 02, 2019 12:34 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Tax basis for consigned violin
Replies: 9
Views: 1369

Tax basis for consigned violin

I am consigning a violin. For tax purposes I think it is considered an antique/collectible. I'm trying to figure out what my tax basis is for it if sold. Not the exact numbers but I'll use them for illustrative purposes. Say it was purchased for 4k years ago. It's now being sold for 6k. The shop tak...