Search found 430 matches

by Jim180
Mon Jun 15, 2020 11:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Who ever follows the “Top-Ranked” Financial Advisors on the radio?
Replies: 38
Views: 3253

Re: Who ever follows the “Top-Ranked” Financial Advisors on the radio?

These financial gurus that always claim "a buying opportunity of a lifetime" never say where a person should get the big lump sum of money to throw into the market. Sure, buy and hold investors can re-balance and buy cheaper shares on the way down but that only amounts to a small portion of their po...
by Jim180
Thu Jun 11, 2020 1:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 19474
Views: 2697382

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Not unusual for the market to have a pullback when a major index crosses a major threshold and the Nasdaq did just cross 10K.
by Jim180
Fri Jun 05, 2020 5:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market Euphoria?
Replies: 63
Views: 5178

Re: Market Euphoria?

The market has to have a pullback soon. Perhaps Nasdaq 10K will be the trigger. Forward P/E of the S&P right now is around 22 while the 5 year average is around 18 and 10 year average is around 16.
by Jim180
Wed May 27, 2020 3:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is the stock market up? [thread multi-merge]
Replies: 521
Views: 21291

Re: Why is the market soaring?

As Alan Greenspan would say, "Irrational Exuberance"
by Jim180
Wed May 20, 2020 10:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 7673
Views: 618422

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Unemployment numbers approaching Great Depression numbers and S&P at 3000 :beer I learned last week from David Stein's Money for the Rest of Us podcast that S&P 500 firms only employ 17% of the U.S. workforce. That means that the entire publicly traded stock market (i.e. total stock market) covers ...
by Jim180
Fri May 08, 2020 10:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is the stock market up? [thread multi-merge]
Replies: 521
Views: 21291

Re: "The economy is in free fall. So why isn't the stock market?"

The market feels this will all be behind us in a few months. It is clearly not pricing in a second wave of the virus later this year which could cause another shock to the economy.
by Jim180
Sat Apr 25, 2020 3:19 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: QQQ VS S&P
Replies: 5
Views: 1067

Re: QQQ VS S&P

Only if you want to make a heavy bet on the FAANG stocks.
by Jim180
Tue Apr 21, 2020 5:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Fed may have fundamentally altered the nature of risk in the stock market
Replies: 51
Views: 6261

Re: The Fed may have fundamentally altered the nature of risk in the stock market

It does seem that both during the financial crisis in 2008 and right now the Fed seems willing to print whatever amount of money it takes to stabilize the markets and the economy. So it would seem in the future it would likely do the same so it's quite possible we may never see a 70%,80%, or 90% dec...
by Jim180
Thu Apr 16, 2020 6:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 7673
Views: 618422

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

While it's great that Gilead may have found an effective drug it could still take months before it could be used widespread and by that time the economy is most likely up and running anyway so I don't understand the market excitement.
by Jim180
Wed Apr 15, 2020 11:24 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Which ETF/ Index funds hold all the oil stocks ?
Replies: 18
Views: 917

Re: Which ETF/ Index funds hold all the oil stocks ?

Well, if an investor doesn't like the heavy concentrations of XOM and CVX found in many of the energy funds Invesco has an equal weight energy ETF (RYE). I don't know much about it other than what the name implies.
by Jim180
Wed Apr 15, 2020 8:08 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Which ETF/ Index funds hold all the oil stocks ?
Replies: 18
Views: 917

Re: Which ETF/ Index funds hold all the oil stocks ?

What do you guys think about USO? USO tracks the actual price of oil. It wasn't mentioned because the OP wanted oil company stocks. Got it. If someone wanted to to play price of oil going up or down then they can also play USO. correct? and then you are not putting too much eggs into one or two com...
by Jim180
Wed Apr 15, 2020 7:50 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Which ETF/ Index funds hold all the oil stocks ?
Replies: 18
Views: 917

Re: Which ETF/ Index funds hold all the oil stocks ?

Something to keep in mind with VDE and XLE is 2 companies make up around 40% of it. Exxon and Chevron. Even though that "makes sense" with the market cap of those companies, I just feel like that is too much exposure that it almost negates owning a fund at all. I don't really have an alternative, j...
by Jim180
Wed Apr 15, 2020 7:48 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Which ETF/ Index funds hold all the oil stocks ?
Replies: 18
Views: 917

Re: Which ETF/ Index funds hold all the oil stocks ?

JD101 wrote:
Wed Apr 15, 2020 7:39 pm
What do you guys think about USO?
USO tracks the actual price of oil. It wasn't mentioned because the OP wanted oil company stocks.
by Jim180
Sun Apr 12, 2020 5:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 7673
Views: 618422

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

vipertom1970 wrote:
Sun Apr 12, 2020 5:37 pm
Stinky wrote:
Sun Apr 12, 2020 5:24 pm
vipertom1970 wrote:
Sun Apr 12, 2020 5:05 pm
looks like another good day tomorrow !!!!
Not sure what you’re looking at. I’m seeing futures down about 0.5%.
LOL, that's was quick !!!! it was up right before my post.
It may have been showing the Thursday close.
by Jim180
Sun Apr 12, 2020 2:36 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Advice for relative who wants guaranteed lifetime income
Replies: 62
Views: 3616

Re: Advice for relative who wants guaranteed lifetime income

Both have been collecting SS so too late to delay it. Do their SS benefits and pension cover all of their current spending needs? If not, are all of their essential spending needs covered? How big is the gap between their spending needs and current income, if any? Is the pension inflation adjusted?...
by Jim180
Sun Apr 12, 2020 11:16 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Advice for relative who wants guaranteed lifetime income
Replies: 62
Views: 3616

Re: Advice for relative who wants guaranteed lifetime income

Both have been collecting SS so too late to delay it. Do their SS benefits and pension cover all of their current spending needs? If not, are all of their essential spending needs covered? How big is the gap between their spending needs and current income, if any? Is the pension inflation adjusted?...
by Jim180
Sun Apr 12, 2020 11:07 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Advice for relative who wants guaranteed lifetime income
Replies: 62
Views: 3616

Re: Advice for relative who wants guaranteed lifetime income

Both have been collecting SS so too late to delay it.
by Jim180
Sun Apr 12, 2020 11:01 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Advice for relative who wants guaranteed lifetime income
Replies: 62
Views: 3616

Re: Advice for relative who wants guaranteed lifetime income

22twain wrote:
Sun Apr 12, 2020 10:20 am
Do you have a sense of how much of a "cushion" they have now, in other words, what percentage of his SS and pension is taken up by their expenses?
No, unfortunately not . I'll have to ask them.
by Jim180
Sun Apr 12, 2020 9:32 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Advice for relative who wants guaranteed lifetime income
Replies: 62
Views: 3616

Re: Advice for relative who wants guaranteed lifetime income

To give a little more information about my post my relative and his wife are age 70 and 69. They are not sure how soon they may need to tap into the $150K but in two years he will need to take his first RMD. They don't want any exposure to the stock market.
by Jim180
Sat Apr 11, 2020 11:10 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Advice for relative who wants guaranteed lifetime income
Replies: 62
Views: 3616

Advice for relative who wants guaranteed lifetime income

I have a relative who discusses his finances with me. He's retired, married and has a small amount of about $150K in an IRA. Him and his wife are afraid his savings are going to run out before he dies since he may start to need this to supplement his SS and pension. He's interested in buying an annu...
by Jim180
Sat Apr 11, 2020 5:58 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How often is there a Bear Trap rally?
Replies: 35
Views: 2966

Re: How often is there a Bear Trap rally?

In most bear markets an initial low is made followed by a failed rally followed by a retest, which usually creates the buying opportunity. That's how it played out in 2000-2003 and 2007-2009. Of course MOST is the key word here. There were a few times we didn't get the retest.
by Jim180
Sat Apr 11, 2020 4:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How do you buy gold?
Replies: 5
Views: 583

Re: How do you buy gold?

GLD is probably the most popular of the gold ETF's.
by Jim180
Wed Apr 08, 2020 7:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Head Fakes and Dead Cats .. your thoughts on the rally?
Replies: 386
Views: 32778

Re: Head Fakes and Dead Cats .. your thoughts on the rally?

Too many people are predicting a retest of the lows; therefore I predict we don't we don't get one. The market will do whatever it takes to disappoint the most people. I have been a buyer throughout this decline. But the reason so many started predicting a retest of the lows is because initially so...
by Jim180
Sun Apr 05, 2020 9:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dow Futures Up Again?
Replies: 131
Views: 8252

Re: Dow Futures Up Again?

The futures are up because of the belief now that the economy can restart on May 1. If it doesn't the market will go back down. Sadly, the market doesn't care about the number of deaths but rather how the deaths interfere with restarting the economy.
by Jim180
Sat Apr 04, 2020 10:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Long-term Treasuries killing it!
Replies: 20
Views: 2452

Re: Long-term Treasuries killing it!

I wouldn't want a large position in LTT's when we come out of this pandemic.
by Jim180
Sat Apr 04, 2020 9:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?
Replies: 573
Views: 38351

Re: Lets predict the bottom of this dip/recession

Given the year we're in I say the S&P bottoms at 2020.
by Jim180
Wed Apr 01, 2020 5:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 19474
Views: 2697382

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

CULater wrote:
Wed Apr 01, 2020 4:57 pm
Futures are down 953? That can't be right, can it?
If you want the most current futures action it's right here:
https://www.investing.com/indices/indices-futures
by Jim180
Wed Apr 01, 2020 3:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 19474
Views: 2697382

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

The second wave of selling is upon us after the bear market rally of last week. I have no doubt we will retest the lows but we'll have to see what the trading volume is like when we do. A retest on light volume would indicate a buying opportunity while penetrating the low on heavy volume means we're...
by Jim180
Mon Mar 30, 2020 11:05 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How much should I pay a financial advisor?
Replies: 15
Views: 1202

Re: How much should I pay a financial advisor?

A fee-only advisor near me charges $500/hr. Problem is financial advisors say investing on your own is too complex and you need a professional to do it for you, so expect a pitch from them during the consultation.
by Jim180
Mon Mar 30, 2020 11:03 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Probability of V shaped Rebound in Stocks
Replies: 82
Views: 7853

Re: Probability of V shaped Rebound in Stocks

I'd say <50% because the majority seem to think it will be a V and I'm a contrarian.
by Jim180
Mon Mar 30, 2020 10:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market is irrational
Replies: 56
Views: 5084

Re: Market is irrational

Trying to understand the market at this level is a fools errand. One of the advantages of being a Boglehead is that you can completely ignore these types of things and still retire rich. Maybe, or maybe not... At some point, if the market gets too distorted and reliant on the Fed and other governme...
by Jim180
Mon Mar 30, 2020 8:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market is irrational
Replies: 56
Views: 5084

Re: Market is irrational

Well, the market certainly did not factor in a virus outbreak immediately. If the market is always forward looking one could ask why the market was still making new highs a month after the first case of Corona virus arrived in the U.S.
by Jim180
Mon Mar 30, 2020 9:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 7673
Views: 618422

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

The market up even though the shutdown was extended until April 30 and the announcement that there could be up to 200K deaths. The saying goes when the market goes up on bad news the worst is over for investors.
by Jim180
Sat Mar 28, 2020 11:14 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Confused about the run-up!
Replies: 10
Views: 1736

Re: Confused about the run-up!

We are approaching the worst numbers in the next few weeks on the virus horror. Now that the Fed's have announced the stimulus package and interest rates have been cut, I am not sure what dramatic moves the Fed's can make that will boost the market. I see a noticeable drop in the Dow in the next fe...
by Jim180
Sat Mar 28, 2020 9:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why would any investor ever even consider a leveraged fund?
Replies: 17
Views: 1414

Re: Why would any investor ever even consider a leveraged fund?

Leveraged funds are for day traders who have a little "play" money they want to gamble with. An investor might be able to make a quick profit if they study technical analysis closely or if they buy such a fund just prior to the release of key economic data that could move the market. Long term it's ...
by Jim180
Fri Mar 27, 2020 5:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 90% of individual investors at Vanguard are staying the course
Replies: 48
Views: 5088

Re: 90% of individual investors at Vanguard are staying the course

I wonder how that number compares to other bear markets. It could indicate there's more market downside to come if that many are still bullish.
by Jim180
Thu Mar 26, 2020 3:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 7673
Views: 618422

Re: New Bull Market!

I'd sure like to know what data market traders are looking at that shows the virus is under control.
by Jim180
Thu Mar 26, 2020 3:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 7673
Views: 618422

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

I thought the market hates uncertainty.
by Jim180
Wed Mar 25, 2020 11:18 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How much to keep at Vanguard?
Replies: 12
Views: 1596

Re: How much to keep at Vanguard?

This is on their site. Don't know if this is what you saw or not:

https://investor.vanguard.com/investing ... protection

I have > $500K and I'm not worried at all. You're good.
by Jim180
Wed Mar 25, 2020 11:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So bottom is probably behind us....right?
Replies: 709
Views: 64341

Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

This is just a counter-trend rally within the bear market. Lot's of unknowns that can make the market head South again such as worse than expected economic data, maybe the economy doesn't restart by Easter and finally the virus could get worse in other areas besides NY.
by Jim180
Mon Mar 23, 2020 3:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cramer on buying index funds during downturn
Replies: 56
Views: 5984

Re: Cramer on buying index funds during downturn

I think if any employee of a financial channel would constantly push index fund investing they'd probably be fired very quickly. These channels only survive because of individual stock investors. All day long their guests push individual stocks or sectors. People would soon tune out if they discusse...
by Jim180
Mon Mar 23, 2020 11:27 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: CD's - Can someone help a novice with a CD question?
Replies: 2
Views: 254

Re: CD's - Can someone help a novice with a CD question?

You're OK with CD's. The retirement accounts not covered are those invested in stocks and bonds which are controlled by market forces.
by Jim180
Mon Mar 23, 2020 11:24 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: I can not do a sell on Schwab
Replies: 14
Views: 950

Re: I can not do a sell on Schwab

Are you absolutely sure you have all the right information in the trade screen? Does it warn you if you do something that does not work, like try to sell more shares than you have? It isn't uncommon that some web transaction of any kind "goes red" and it takes some checking to see what exactly was ...
by Jim180
Mon Mar 23, 2020 11:15 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: For those timing the market right now, what are your criteria for getting back in?
Replies: 30
Views: 2370

Re: For those timing the market right now, what are your criteria for getting back in?

I use some technical analysis which means an initial low followed by a failed rally followed by a retest of the low. This could take months to play out.
by Jim180
Mon Mar 23, 2020 11:09 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: I can not do a sell on Schwab
Replies: 14
Views: 950

Re: I can not do a sell on Schwab

Are you absolutely sure you have all the right information in the trade screen?
by Jim180
Mon Mar 23, 2020 9:05 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Selling Index funds in Brokerage account?
Replies: 7
Views: 377

Re: Selling Index funds in Brokerage account?

If you have long-term capital gains they could be taxed at 0%, 15%, or 20% depending on your income.
by Jim180
Sun Mar 22, 2020 8:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P500 and Dow Futures Hit Limit Down After Reaching 5% Down Limit for Monday Open
Replies: 155
Views: 13431

Re: S&P500 and Dow Futures Halted After Reaching 5% Down Limit for Monday Open

If America gets back to work the bleeding in the market might stop but if the shutdown is extended another 15 days the bleeding continues.
by Jim180
Sun Mar 22, 2020 8:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will the Dow ever see 29500 again?
Replies: 86
Views: 8786

Re: Will the Dow ever see 29500 again?

Oh yes, I don't know how long it will take but it will. I remember after dot-com bubble people were asking if the Nasdaq would ever hit 5000 again.
by Jim180
Fri Mar 20, 2020 8:28 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: What's up with Floating Rate bond funds
Replies: 17
Views: 1002

Re: What's up with Floating Rate bond funds

Floating Rate funds are basically "junk" bank loans and we know junk bond funds are getting crushed.