Search found 454 matches

by pop77
Fri May 15, 2020 3:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ben Felix - How to Retire Early (The 4% Rule)
Replies: 221
Views: 15450

Re: Ben Felix - How to Retire Early (The 4% Rule)

The problem is not mathematical but rather psychological. Some will keep working till they are kicked out as they can always find reasons NOT to retire. As there is no guarantee, you can come up with a scenario where even 50 X expenses will not work. What if you had a medical emergency not covered b...
by pop77
Wed May 06, 2020 4:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Corona impact on Real Estate as a viable asset class
Replies: 16
Views: 1556

Re: Corona impact on Real Estate as a viable asset class

Thanks for the view points. Again, I am not worried about the volatility. This is in my Roth and I do not plan to touch for a couple of decades. I am just questioning whether this asset class will provide a reasonable rate of return in the long term. I am certainly not planning on dumping it now in ...
by pop77
Mon May 04, 2020 10:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Corona impact on Real Estate as a viable asset class
Replies: 16
Views: 1556

Corona impact on Real Estate as a viable asset class

I am wondering wither real estate (domestic and international) will remain a valid asset class due to Covid 19. If they drop now by 50% I do not care but my question is whether they will survive as an asset class. Movie theaters, Office buildings, retail stores, malls all are going to be affected. M...
by pop77
Tue Apr 21, 2020 3:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Future 60/40 Portfolio has a 43% Chance of Failing with 4% Withdrawal Rate
Replies: 622
Views: 31467

Re: Future 60/40 Portfolio has a 43% Chance of Failing with 4% Withdrawal Rate

I have not interest in predicting the future. It's a thing I can't do, and this post is NOT an attempt to do it. Nor do I want to add any fuel to the hyperbole around the notion that "60/40 is dead". It's not dead, or least no deader than it was. But I do think it is important for investors who are...
by pop77
Sun Apr 05, 2020 7:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Words of Wisdom William Bernstein_chat w/Ben Carlson
Replies: 75
Views: 10533

Re: Words of Wisdom William Bernstein_chat w/Ben Carlson

Good to see he endorse the 'bucket approach' at least from a psychological perspective on how to think about your portfolio. I am still not sure how the bucket approach will fully play out in a bear market, for retirees. As you keep pulling money out from 'safer assets' the risk keeps going up, if y...
by pop77
Wed Apr 01, 2020 6:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tax Efficiency of Wellesley (VWINX) distributions
Replies: 15
Views: 1283

Re: Tax Efficiency of Wellesley (VWINX) distributions

The resiliency of Wellesley has been discussed here a lot, so I do not want to debate that. I am looking for a fund/investment in my taxable that weathers the storm like the one we are now but also provides some long term growth. This sounds like you want LifeStrategy Conservative Growth, which is ...
by pop77
Tue Mar 31, 2020 6:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tax Efficiency of Wellesley (VWINX) distributions
Replies: 15
Views: 1283

Re: Tax Efficiency of Wellesley (VWINX) distributions

How much of an assessment do you need? (Not snark, real question.) Wellesley is tax-inefficient for two reasons. It is an actively managed fund and it contains a big chunk of taxable bonds. Neither of those are good choices to hold in a taxable account for most people. So in general, it would not b...
by pop77
Tue Mar 31, 2020 2:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tax Efficiency of Wellesley (VWINX) distributions
Replies: 15
Views: 1283

Re: Tax Efficiency of Wellesley (VWINX) distributions

Quick follow up, where can I get distributions from this fund before 2010? In looking at distributions from 2010-2019, they have distributed on an average 2.5% under qualified category (Long Term Capital Gain+ 35% of Income) and 2.36% under non-qualified category (Short Term Capital Gain + 65% of In...
by pop77
Sat Mar 28, 2020 11:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tax Efficiency of Wellesley (VWINX) distributions
Replies: 15
Views: 1283

Re: Tax Efficiency of Wellesley (VWINX) distributions

Thanks. Is it always typically around this percentage? This is for one year, I was wondering if there is a range from those who have owned the fund for longer periods.. It varies with bond yields. Wellesley holds 35% higher-dividend stocks (which pay qualified dividends) and 65% mostly-corporate bo...
by pop77
Sat Mar 28, 2020 8:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tax Efficiency of Wellesley (VWINX) distributions
Replies: 15
Views: 1283

Re: Tax Efficiency of Wellesley (VWINX) distributions

Thanks. Is it always typically around this percentage? This is for one year, I was wondering if there is a range from those who have owned the fund for longer periods..
by pop77
Fri Mar 27, 2020 12:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tax Efficiency of Wellesley (VWINX) distributions
Replies: 15
Views: 1283

Tax Efficiency of Wellesley (VWINX) distributions

I am trying to assess the tax efficiency of the distributions of Vanguard Wellesley (VWINX) fund. I was able to download the distributions for the past 10 years fom Vanguard's website. The distributions are classified into Income, Short Term Capital Gain and Long Term Capital Gain. I am not able to ...
by pop77
Tue Mar 10, 2020 10:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I Bonds are a screaming buy - Tipswatch
Replies: 138
Views: 21596

Re: I Bonds are a screaming buy - Tipswatch

How does I Bond compare with pre-paying mortgage? Is there a cut off rate in mortgage that makes it a better choice. I am struggling with that decision now..
by pop77
Fri Feb 28, 2020 5:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Re-assessing risk tolerance if near/in retirement
Replies: 50
Views: 2536

Re: Re-assessing risk tolerance if near/in retirement

I wonder whether it is better to think about AA more in terms of # times in annual expenses that are in safe assets (Bond,Cash) instead of a %. For example, I can target 5 years of expenses in Bond + Cash and have remaining in stocks. It could be 10 years if you are more risk averse. I can relate to...
by pop77
Tue Feb 18, 2020 9:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 4% SWR: It is not a rule and it is not safe (anymore).
Replies: 273
Views: 18837

Re: 4% SWR: It is not a rule and it is not safe (anymore).

You can live in perpetual fear working a long time or take some calculated risks. WIthout guaranteed pensions and returns from instruments like TIPS, there is always some risk. What happens if bond yields turn negative for a long period of time? What happens if global growth grounds to a halt? Can s...
by pop77
Thu Jan 30, 2020 4:41 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Two Week Vacation in France - Drive Vs Train
Replies: 11
Views: 922

Re: Two Week Vacation in France - Drive Vs Train

Thank you all for your valuable inputs. Looks like I might have to see France in two trips :D . I will reach out as the plan solidifies further.
by pop77
Thu Jan 30, 2020 11:17 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Two Week Vacation in France - Drive Vs Train
Replies: 11
Views: 922

Two Week Vacation in France - Drive Vs Train

Planning a two week vacation in France this summer. Trying to plan an itinerary, Currently thinking of 3 days Paris, 2 Days Normandy region, 2 Days Loire Valley / Lyon, 3 Days Nice region . This is a loose itinerary - open to suggestions. I will be flying in and out of Paris. Is it better to take th...
by pop77
Tue Jan 28, 2020 1:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Demise of the 4 Percent Rule? -- Wade Pfau
Replies: 179
Views: 14922

Re: The Demise of the 4 Percent Rule? -- Wade Pfau

This is gone beyond the realm of finance and into psychology. IMHO, anything you accumulate beyond 25 times your expenses (ignoring SS payments) is because you psychologically cannot let go of the comfort factor of regular paychecks. There is also the 'identity' factor, what will you do with all th...
by pop77
Tue Jan 28, 2020 1:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Demise of the 4 Percent Rule? -- Wade Pfau
Replies: 179
Views: 14922

Re: The Demise of the 4 Percent Rule? -- Wade Pfau

This is gone beyond the realm of finance and into psychology. IMHO, anything you accumulate beyond 25 times your expenses (ignoring SS payments) is because you psychologically cannot let go of the comfort factor of regular paychecks. There is also the 'identity' factor, what will you do with all the...
by pop77
Mon Jan 20, 2020 8:11 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Scared Stiff to retire
Replies: 91
Views: 12739

Re: Scared Stiff to retire

Forgive me, OP, if I missed this in my admittedly quick scan of your postings. It seems to me that since you are "scared" about retirement, to ask about your present job. How do you like it? Is it secure for a few more years? Any chances for advancement or new challenges? If you did retire, do you ...
by pop77
Sat Jan 18, 2020 8:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?
Replies: 717
Views: 103698

Re: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?

If you essential expenses are covered through social security income(s), then it is even better. In addition, any portfolio generates some amount of dividends/interest even during down years. If you defer SS benefits until 70, today's maximum benefit is around $45k-46k per year for a single. Will i...
by pop77
Fri Jan 17, 2020 4:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?
Replies: 717
Views: 103698

Re: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?

If you essential expenses are covered through social security income(s), then it is even better. In addition, any portfolio generates some amount of dividends/interest even during down years.
by pop77
Fri Jan 17, 2020 3:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?
Replies: 717
Views: 103698

Re: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?

If you have 25 times expenses without considering social security income that should give a good buffer, if you hit several years of down markets right? (Even if SS gets cut by 20% in the future)..
by pop77
Fri Jan 17, 2020 1:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?
Replies: 717
Views: 103698

Re: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?

It is amazing to see different POVs with the same data. When I saw the results, it was (for me) a proof that 4% rule is very robust even if followed dogmatically. As others have pointed out, a family can apply various levers to make it even better, cutting down discretionary spending, drawing down f...
by pop77
Fri Jan 17, 2020 7:29 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Historical Contributions to Roth
Replies: 18
Views: 1004

Re: Historical Contributions to Roth

If it is not too late, you should record every contribution you have made (or each years' contribution if you made many in a year). This information should be available to you online at your Roth account unless you have moved it from one place to another. Look for all the contributions back to your...
by pop77
Fri Jan 17, 2020 7:25 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Historical Contributions to Roth
Replies: 18
Views: 1004

Re: Historical Contributions to Roth

retire2022 wrote:
Wed Jan 15, 2020 6:36 pm
Op check out this calculator

http://www.moneychimp.com/articles/roth ... limits.htm

also here is historical chart

https://www.financialsamurai.com/histor ... on-limits/
Very helpful, thanks.
by pop77
Fri Jan 17, 2020 7:25 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Historical Contributions to Roth
Replies: 18
Views: 1004

Re: Historical Contributions to Roth

if you google Rpth withdrawal table for this site: The table by kawill of the fairmark.com site was betted by Alan S. so you can have some confidence in it. The table is written in the same sequence as the ordering rules: contributions come out first , then conversions (oldest first) and within eac...
by pop77
Wed Jan 15, 2020 1:05 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Historical Contributions to Roth
Replies: 18
Views: 1004

Re: Historical Contributions to Roth

Thank you. I have put all tax related forms in the corresponding year tax file. That is the easy one to look up. Appreciate it.
by pop77
Wed Jan 15, 2020 12:49 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Historical Contributions to Roth
Replies: 18
Views: 1004

Re: Historical Contributions to Roth

Thanks I realized this will not work, as I have sold and bought stocks/funds as well. I know my contributions from 2011, need to do some digging to find out my contributions before that.
by pop77
Wed Jan 15, 2020 12:37 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Historical Contributions to Roth
Replies: 18
Views: 1004

Historical Contributions to Roth

This might be a silly question because of my lack of book keeping.. I do not remember which year I first started my Roth account, suppose I want to understand how much I have contributed in total over the past years, could I just use the cost basis I am seeing for the account as the total amount tha...
by pop77
Tue Dec 10, 2019 12:08 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Can i retire?
Replies: 48
Views: 4924

Re: Can i retire?

Does 50K include health care premiums before 65 (using ACA), property tax, mortgage as well? If so I would have retired 500K ago.. A great reason to have some Roth or taxable money. By limiting taxable income (tIRA withdrawals) @ 250% FPL, Our 2020 ACA “Bronze” policy is $18 a month. Sweet!. This i...
by pop77
Mon Dec 09, 2019 11:56 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Can i retire?
Replies: 48
Views: 4924

Re: Can i retire?

Does 50K include health care premiums before 65 (using ACA), property tax, mortgage as well?

If so I would have retired 500K ago..
by pop77
Thu Dec 05, 2019 7:03 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Quantifying the value of employment near retirement
Replies: 64
Views: 3287

Re: Quantifying the value of employment near retirement

The problem is everything cannot be easily valued. You do not hate your job but looks like you do not love it either. Is there something you would love to do? What is the opportunity cost of not being able to do it? It is so hard to let go of a fixed salary that you are used to all your working year...
by pop77
Fri Nov 15, 2019 9:37 am
Forum: Forum Issues and Administration
Topic: New Forum for Retirement / Early Retirement
Replies: 7
Views: 1903

Re: New Forum for Retirement / Early Retirement

Thanks All. I meant a sub forum under bogleheads. I can understand why owners may not want to do it..
by pop77
Thu Nov 07, 2019 4:21 pm
Forum: Forum Issues and Administration
Topic: New Forum for Retirement / Early Retirement
Replies: 7
Views: 1903

New Forum for Retirement / Early Retirement

Would it make sense to start a new forum that focusses on topics exclusively on retirement including ideas /thoughts on early retirement?
by pop77
Thu Nov 07, 2019 4:19 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Mortgage to prepay or not prepay
Replies: 83
Views: 7363

Re: Mortgage to prepay or not prepay

(I get no value from the liquidity because the mortgage balance is much less than my taxable account value.) How do you view the volatility you might have on your taxable account value Vs mortgage balance? As market is reaching new highs the difference between your current taxable account value and...
by pop77
Sat Oct 19, 2019 5:51 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Retiring and Getting Over The Fear of Quitting?
Replies: 84
Views: 10364

Re: Retiring and Getting Over The Fear of Quitting?

This is a great post. It is a strange feeling where you feel you are there but not sure. The problem is that there is no 100% guarantee. This thread should bring out finer and more subtler points about retiring rather than the obvious ones. You can throw money at fear and make it disappear so if you...
by pop77
Fri Sep 06, 2019 8:49 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Savings Percentage Calculation
Replies: 51
Views: 3533

Re: Savings Percentage Calculation

In terms of strict definitions, there's less debate than people imagine. You take all the money you make in a year and put it in a pile. Every time you spend one of those dollars, your net worth goes down by $1. Every dollar you use to maintain your net worth is savings. Putting money into savings ...
by pop77
Sat Aug 03, 2019 4:15 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Finally considering paying off my mortgage
Replies: 42
Views: 4612

Re: Finally planning to pay off my mortgage

I decided to divert all the extra funds to Vanguard Wellesley to accumulate towards mortgage payoff. It is now accumulating towards the desired payoff amount. With its risk profile, I am confident that I can pay off mortgage within reasonable time if needed. This way I can sleep better, knowing tha...
by pop77
Sat Aug 03, 2019 3:54 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Finally considering paying off my mortgage
Replies: 42
Views: 4612

Re: Finally planning to pay off my mortgage

I decided to divert all the extra funds to Vanguard Wellesley to accumulate towards mortgage payoff. It is now accumulating towards the desired payoff amount. With its risk profile, I am confident that I can pay off mortgage within reasonable time if needed. This way I can sleep better, knowing that...
by pop77
Sat Jul 27, 2019 6:37 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Personal Finance Toolbox - Question
Replies: 2
Views: 625

Re: Personal Finance Toolbox - Question

Thank you. Very helpful
by pop77
Fri Jul 26, 2019 3:17 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Personal Finance Toolbox - Question
Replies: 2
Views: 625

Personal Finance Toolbox - Question

First a HUGE thank you to whomever put the personal finance toolbox spreadsheet (link in BogleheadWiki) https://drive.google.com/file/d/1aPE6MbD7TM-qp6dsHDWALlSFAaUhqINg/view?usp=sharing together and keeps it updated. This a great effort. I stumbled upon this through an article in thefinancebuff abo...
by pop77
Wed Jul 24, 2019 10:37 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Estimating Long Term Capital Gains in Retirement
Replies: 6
Views: 538

Re: Estimating Long Term Capital Gains in Retirement

Yes, I could do that. However, what I am asking is more for planning purposes from say 55-65 not for a specific year. So if my overall profits based on average cost is 30% , will that be a good estimate?
by pop77
Wed Jul 24, 2019 9:43 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Estimating Long Term Capital Gains in Retirement
Replies: 6
Views: 538

Estimating Long Term Capital Gains in Retirement

In retirement, the main source of funds before being eligible for social security or any pension that is available are 1. Interest income from CDs/Bond Funds/Money Market Funds 2. Qualified Dividends 3. Long Term Capital Gains. If one needs 60,000 a year and 20,000 comes from item 1 and 2, remaining...
by pop77
Tue Jun 18, 2019 12:34 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Questions on using Firecalc
Replies: 8
Views: 691

Re: Questions on using Firecalc

#1 It is good to vary the inputs to see the sensitivity to any particular input. #2 That is the nature of statistics. If the seed is not the same for each run, then each run will give you a different result. I think the #2 is because I choose the last option in the "your portfolio" tab. ALL OTHER I...
by pop77
Tue Jun 18, 2019 12:33 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Questions on using Firecalc
Replies: 8
Views: 691

Re: Questions on using Firecalc

2. That doesn't happen when I run it, but maybe you have unknowingly set a switch that I don't use. I think it is because I use the last option under the "Your Portfolio" tab. I adjust the mean return to 8% and S.D to 10 % based on my portfolio's historical performance. "A portfolio with random per...
by pop77
Tue Jun 18, 2019 12:01 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Questions on using Firecalc
Replies: 8
Views: 691

Questions on using Firecalc

I have a couple of questions on using Firecalc. 1. As we are in a long bull market, does it make sense to adjust your portfolio assuming some correction? For example, if my portfolio value is 1.2 Million, should I input the portfolio is 1.1 Million (giving a 100K buffer). If Firecalc looks at past h...
by pop77
Sat Jun 01, 2019 8:10 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Quicken Fidelity account download [not working]
Replies: 9
Views: 807

Re: Quicken Fidelity account download [not working]

This has been a problem since last week. Not sure what is going on..
by pop77
Sat Jun 01, 2019 6:46 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Considering Pension Options
Replies: 14
Views: 1375

Re: Considering Pension Options

Thanks for all the replies. The reason I put this topic in the Investing Forum was to come up with a logical framework for analysis that ANYONE to use. Now I see it has been moved to personal finance :D . My first emotional response was to delay as much I can and choose 100% joint survivor. But want...
by pop77
Fri May 31, 2019 12:36 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Considering Pension Options
Replies: 14
Views: 1375

Re: Considering Pension Options

Thanks for the suggestions. I was trying the different options along with my portfolio value and expenses in Firecalc and interestingly enough the success rate for taking pension at 60 scored higher than taking it in 65 (in spite of the increase in amount of pension).
by pop77
Thu May 30, 2019 2:33 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Considering Pension Options
Replies: 14
Views: 1375

Considering Pension Options

Hi Everyone, Probably this has been asked before for specific use cases, but I want to see whether there is a framework that would help me pick the right option for pensions. Basically there are two variables. 1. When I can opt to start getting the pension (Options : 55, 60, 650 2. Who is included (...