Search found 2365 matches

by IlliniDave
Fri Sep 30, 2022 4:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is "Stay The Course" dead?
Replies: 416
Views: 48074

Re: Is "Stay The Course" dead?

... but still, it stings right now. So, I guess my question is, why didn't I (and I'm sure a lot of others) sell out when it was obvious what was going to happen? Was it greed, hope, something else, or was it really only obvious in hindsight? Why do people ride it all the way down? Not sure if you want your subject line question addressed, or your closing question. As long as people are staying the course, staying the course is not dead. I know people who have "seen this coming" since as far back as 2009. I know people who pulled out at all different times along the way. Most of them are likely worse off today than if they'd have rode it out the whole way. Maybe a day is coming where they'll be better off for sitting on the sidel...
by IlliniDave
Tue Jul 19, 2022 6:10 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Share your Net Worth Regression
Replies: 350
Views: 59829

Re: Share your Net Worth Regression

Its my fault everyone. I retired at 57 last July. Since then: ballooning inflation, plummeting investment markets, and at or near recession territory. At last check my portfolio was down -12.2% since I retired, and my net worth down about 9%. Both are nominal calculations.

The three OMY ("one more year") cards I played are looking pretty good as I'm still viable thanks to a bit of oversaving and having learned to disconnect contended living from high spending. But if this keeps up too long I might be that not-so-old guy greeting you with, "Welcome to Walmart."
by IlliniDave
Tue May 31, 2022 4:49 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Federal Tax Question
Replies: 6
Views: 1075

Re: Federal Tax Question

Thanks, everyone!

Probably to be certain I'll wait until I get a W-2 in-hand early next year, but they did take out FICA and Medi payroll taxes as well as federal income tax and state income tax for the state I lived in while employed (I relocated several months after retiring). I guess the fun part will be figuring out which state(s) get to take a bite out of it.
by IlliniDave
Mon May 30, 2022 7:58 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Federal Tax Question
Replies: 6
Views: 1075

Federal Tax Question

I retired from my job in July of 2021. In March of 2022 I received a bonus from my former employer (prorated for the number of months I worked in 2021). Does the IRS consider that 2022 earned income, i.e., can I contribute that amount of money to my Roth IRA account in 2022?
by IlliniDave
Mon Aug 30, 2021 5:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Greed and BH dogma getting the best of us? [Are you sticking to your plan?]
Replies: 87
Views: 12666

Re: Greed and BH dogma getting the best of us?

I got pretty well ahead and did roll back my equity exposure, but it was generally per plan as I'd been on the cusp of retirement (did so at the end of July). Also, I don't follow BH dogma in the sense that my strategy for allocation is a variant on LMP.
by IlliniDave
Wed Jun 16, 2021 10:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Worried About PE Ratios?
Replies: 65
Views: 5997

Re: Worried About PE Ratios?

It's bothersome enough I haven't bought much stock since 2017/18 (just one little rebalance last April). But I haven't sold any more than what it's taken to keep me on my final approach to retirement glide path. None of the choices feel good right now. Given that US stocks have doubled and international are up 60% since the start of 2017 one need not have bought any to keep ones allocation unless one's contributions are large in proportion to one's holdings. I get that things feel overheated, but sounds like you are just keeping to your plan? Yes, although I admit I sometimes do my rebalancing on RGDs or RBDs rather than on a set calendar. :) I'm sort of at the point where after my few initial modest sales (incremental 5% sales to go from ...
by IlliniDave
Tue Jun 15, 2021 7:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Worried About PE Ratios?
Replies: 65
Views: 5997

Re: Worried About PE Ratios?

It's bothersome enough I haven't bought much stock since 2017/18 (just one little rebalance last April). But I haven't sold any more than what it's taken to keep me on my final approach to retirement glide path. None of the choices feel good right now.
by IlliniDave
Tue Jun 15, 2021 6:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I'll never regret not having international funds in my portfolio
Replies: 282
Views: 27748

Re: I'll never regret not having international funds in my portfolio

I've got a dollop of both developed and emerging markets, former indexed, latter relatively low-cost active. Percentage-wise I'm too lazy to add it up but probably 20-30% of equity. I'm ambivalent of how valuable they are to my strategy. A handful of years ago the notion allocating per worldwide market cap (at the time it was roughly 45% US, 55% ex-US, iirc) was a popular topic but that was always a bit much for me.
by IlliniDave
Tue Jun 01, 2021 5:56 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Am I nuts? About to retire early without bulletproof money.
Replies: 109
Views: 22459

Re: Am I nuts? About to retire early without bulletproof money.

IowaFarmBoy wrote: Mon May 31, 2021 5:00 am ... I came up with an analogy, albeit a slightly cheesy one. I described myself as flying along in an airplane and I'm trying to decide when to bail out. The airplane is running fine, my parachute is perfect and the risk of jumping is ridiculously low. But the first step out of the plane is still a big one.... I realized that at some point I was going to take that step, whether it was 62, 65 or whenever.

Good luck!
There's certainly an aspect of that, captured in the old expression: if it ain't broke, don't fix it. I could keep cruising and probably say it wasn't a bad life. Just wouldn't be what I want for the home stretch.
by IlliniDave
Mon May 31, 2021 3:57 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Am I nuts? About to retire early without bulletproof money.
Replies: 109
Views: 22459

Re: Am I nuts? About to retire early without bulletproof money.

Once you retire, the fun begins! Do you have a plan for your own remaining years? Retirement can be, in many ways, a "full-time job." I hope you make the most of your new life! When you can, start researching what makes for a successful retirement. (Hint: It's not about money.) That's something I need to revisit, but a handful of years back I spent time considering what I might do to keep myself engaged with life absent full-time employment. I wound up with a long list that I narrowed down for an initial 3-year plan with the idea I'd review things periodically, keep what is working, and change out what isn't. My mom's passing in 2018 changed things up a little with that initial plan, but I've got a notebook somewhere with a good ...
by IlliniDave
Mon May 31, 2021 3:38 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Am I nuts? About to retire early without bulletproof money.
Replies: 109
Views: 22459

Re: Am I nuts? About to retire early without bulletproof money.

I think there is little risk that they'll try to pull me back in too deeply, but if that happens I can just retire prior to January. I don't need to do it, but 60% salary (minimum is 24 hr/wk to get full benefits) is about 60% more than the retirement annuity and comes with much cheaper medical insurance. Not sure if I understand the situation you're talking about, but - a little-known clause of the ACA says that your current-year eligibility for employer-based health insurance is based on the previous benefit year's worked hours. So, for instance, I worked 8-16 hours per two week pay period thru most of 2019 (which is below benefited hours) but paid for health insurance at the part time employee rate because I worked sufficient hours in 2...
by IlliniDave
Sat May 29, 2021 12:49 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Am I nuts? About to retire early without bulletproof money.
Replies: 109
Views: 22459

Re: Am I nuts? About to retire early without bulletproof money.

Yes, I too wish there were more threads on us lower/middle class working stiffs. Maybe we should start one called something like "Retirement Scenarios for Lower/Middle Class Folks" where we could share stories of what our retirement is going to look like or already looks like. Or is there already a thread like that available? OP - Congrats on retirement, you’re in an enviable and impressive position. Glad your work and planning has paid off. Somewhat unrelated but I wish there were more threads on this site dealing with the lower / middle class. I get a small chuckle sometimes out of the “not sure if I can retire on my $xxx million portfolio and 0.01% withdrawal rate”... LukeOfTheDraw, I hear you. Mine are definitely well up the ...
by IlliniDave
Sat May 29, 2021 12:14 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Am I nuts? About to retire early without bulletproof money.
Replies: 109
Views: 22459

Re: Am I nuts? About to retire early without bulletproof money.

It sounds like your job is old school and they won't take advantage of your part time work ... I will say they were on the leading edge of working from home under certain conditions. I spent many, many weeks back in Illinois when my dad was ailing 10 years ago. I worked remote before it was a thing. My employer is definitely old-school, but they've been trying to do better the last 10 years or so. But frankly, covid changed everything. They are still saying anyone that can work from home, must work from home. The proposed arrangement came from the project management side of my management chain, so I don't know how the HR-recognized side will react. I think there is little risk that they'll try to pull me back in too deeply, but if that hap...
by IlliniDave
Sat May 29, 2021 8:32 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Am I nuts? About to retire early without bulletproof money.
Replies: 109
Views: 22459

Re: Am I nuts? About to retire early without bulletproof money.

A number of responses came in after I last checked in on this thread. Thank you to everyone who took the time to chime in. I just wanted to provide an update (though I understand it, I'm often disappointed when "talking" with someone about significant decisions then never knowing what they decided and how it turned out). I decided to pull the plug. At this moment the plan* is that I'll be a retiree on 8/1. Not much has changed except my retirement assets have increased by roughly $100K and it looks like I'll net about 80% more than expected from selling my house. :shock: I expected to have to kick in maybe $20K-$30K extra to make the sell here/buy there sequence work out the way I wanted; now it looks like I might pocket a nice su...
by IlliniDave
Fri May 28, 2021 4:01 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Have a really hard time quitting
Replies: 157
Views: 28197

Re: Have a really hard time quitting

So help me, reason with me, shake me up, talk some sense into me to quit… :confused Congrats on your lifelong success, it's an inspirational story. I'm probably a "lite" version of you in a sense. I grew up far from affluent, but not outright poor. Enough that I sensed it was constraining, so as I got out on my own I set financial goals that were in significant part a reaction to my childhood circumstances. I've pretty much achieved all my financial goals, have not done quite as well as you and you husband have, but I am as wealthier than I ever expected to be. I'm planning to retire in two months (mid 50s) and not a day goes by that I don't do the mental back of the envelope math that I'll be leaving ~$2M, probably more, in gros...
by IlliniDave
Thu May 27, 2021 6:19 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Alight Financial Solutions?
Replies: 11
Views: 3434

Re: Alight Financial Solutions?

Wiggums wrote: Thu May 27, 2021 4:55 am If you put ALIGHT in the search bar, you will see many references to Alight Solutions.

search.php?keywords=Alight&terms=all&au ... mit=Search
Hence some of my concerns and questions :), although the search was done generally rather than on this site. I come here to discuss.
by IlliniDave
Thu May 27, 2021 6:12 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Alight Financial Solutions?
Replies: 11
Views: 3434

Re: Alight Financial Solutions?

Affable at 50 wrote: Thu May 27, 2021 6:06 am

You misunderstood what I said. A switch to Alight should not impact your investment options and may have minimal impact on the user experience. Alight is not replacing the investment company.
That's not what my employer is telling us, but maybe I'm missing something in the semantics/jargon.
by IlliniDave
Thu May 27, 2021 5:59 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Alight Financial Solutions?
Replies: 11
Views: 3434

Re: Alight Financial Solutions?

Don’t sweat it. While Alight is relatively young, founded in 2017, they are not managing your 401k. Alight is a technology company the helps your organization secure their data in the cloud. My company uses Alight and I have not had any problems. I don’t recall even switching over to Alight, which might suggest that the cutover was seamless. Thanks, that makes me even more nervous though. Currently the plan is administered by a well known, established, reputable, investment services company rather than a generic benefits administrator. We have a somewhat eclectic palette of options but an effective one for those who embrace low costs/indexing and like a little DIY wiggle room. Now I'm worried about "technology"-driven cookie cutt...
by IlliniDave
Thu May 27, 2021 2:55 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Alight Financial Solutions?
Replies: 11
Views: 3434

Alight Financial Solutions?

Anyone have experiences good or bad with an employer sponsored retirement plan managed by alight?

I'm very happy with my employer's current plan but they announced they are switching to Alight ~1 year after I retire. I'd planned to keep my 401 (versus rolling over) with the current admin based on a 30-yr track record with them. I'm retiring before 59.5 so wanted to have the option of penalty-free withdrawals pre 59.5, but that's not essential. In all my time here and elsewhere wringing my hands over planning for retirement I'd never even heard of this outfit, which makes me very nervous as my 401 is the lion's share of my invested assets.
by IlliniDave
Wed Apr 21, 2021 12:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: .
Replies: 100
Views: 19407

Re: Do simple index fund-only portfolios (e.g., 3-fund, 5-fund, etc.) work for the ultra wealthy (say, $20+ million)?

It’s in large part due to Jack that we, a W2 income family, have been able to provide for our future. Amen to that. Even well below average here apparently (saw in another thread where our average NW here is $5M :shock: ) and with an employer plan managed by Fidelity limiting VG access in my main pot of money, whatever success I can claim has Mr Bogle's fingerprint on it. The 2015 net worth survey showed an average portfolio value of $1.5 million (median $877,000) and net worth of $2 million from 1,405 participants. https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=154364 Do you have a link for $5 million? Some tossed it out earlier in this thread based on the 2015 survey with a swag at what a sizeable portfolio might have grown to since 20...
by IlliniDave
Tue Apr 20, 2021 7:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: .
Replies: 100
Views: 19407

Re: Do simple index fund-only portfolios (e.g., 3-fund, 5-fund, etc.) work for the ultra wealthy (say, $20+ million)?

TomatoTomahto wrote: Tue Apr 20, 2021 6:42 am It’s in large part due to Jack that we, a W2 income family, have been able to provide for our future.
Amen to that. Even well below average here apparently (saw in another thread where our average NW here is $5M :shock: ) and with an employer plan managed by Fidelity limiting VG access in my main pot of money, whatever success I can claim has Mr Bogle's fingerprint on it.
by IlliniDave
Wed Mar 31, 2021 12:29 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Voluntary state withholding from qualified pension?
Replies: 14
Views: 1199

Re: Voluntary state withholding from qualified pension?

Hope you can work out the pension withholding to meet your automatic payment approach. One alternative is to just handle it all in the spring, assuming you file taxes during the regular tax season. Make a single estimated tax payment by April 15 at the time you are filing your taxes for the previous tax year. You can decide how much to pay. For instance, if I thought my tax liability was going to be $800, I might make a $500 estimated tax payment in April 2022 for 2022. Then I would pay the balance in 2023 when I filed. Also realize that the underpayment penalty, should you make a mistake, on the amounts involved are probably exceedingly small. The year I underwithheld by the amounts in question, my state penalty was $2. Still annoyed me b...
by IlliniDave
Wed Mar 31, 2021 11:22 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Voluntary state withholding from qualified pension?
Replies: 14
Views: 1199

Re: Voluntary state withholding from qualified pension?

Hope you can work out the pension withholding to meet your automatic payment approach. One alternative is to just handle it all in the spring, assuming you file taxes during the regular tax season. Make a single estimated tax payment by April 15 at the time you are filing your taxes for the previous tax year. You can decide how much to pay. For instance, if I thought my tax liability was going to be $800, I might make a $500 estimated tax payment in April 2022 for 2022. Then I would pay the balance in 2023 when I filed. Also realize that the underpayment penalty, should you make a mistake, on the amounts involved are probably exceedingly small. The year I underwithheld by the amounts in question, my state penalty was $2. Still annoyed me b...
by IlliniDave
Wed Mar 31, 2021 8:00 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Voluntary state withholding from qualified pension?
Replies: 14
Views: 1199

Re: Voluntary state withholding from qualified pension?

-Withholding state income tax from a pension can be a convenient way to approach state tax obligations. -In the event that your pension does not have a method to specify a flat monthly amount, you can always adjust your allowances/dependents to produce the correct withholding. _____________ However, there are very few people who should have $50 a month withheld from their pension, in my opinion. This is basically a behavioral finance choice or a preference. -To start with, I would find out how much I can owe when I file my taxes. It might be that your potential tax liability is such that you could make the full payment when you file your taxes. -Alternatively, you could just make a single estimated tax payment at the beginning of the year ...
by IlliniDave
Wed Mar 31, 2021 7:43 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Voluntary state withholding from qualified pension?
Replies: 14
Views: 1199

Re: Voluntary state withholding from qualified pension?

dratkinson wrote: Tue Mar 30, 2021 5:04 pm I need to withhold for fed + state, to cover income from pension + SS + taxable distributions.

Pension. I ask employer to withhold for fed + state.

...
Thanks, that's pretty much what I want to do, and for the same reason. I'm coming to see that the limitation seems to be imposed by the pension administration instead of them acting within state-imposed constraints. I'll probably make a second call to them on this topic and push a little harder.
by IlliniDave
Tue Mar 30, 2021 4:17 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Voluntary state withholding from qualified pension?
Replies: 14
Views: 1199

Re: Voluntary state withholding from qualified pension?

So I'm just trying to see if other people are a) using voluntary withholding of state tax-exempt retirement income to offset state taxes owed due to other taxable income sources and b), if yes, are they running into the same severe limitations with tailoring the voluntary withholding of state taxes that I am. As for me, I'm having no Alabama tax withheld from my pension. However, from my monthly payment remittance, it appears that Northern Trust would allow me to designate a flat dollar amount, in addition to the normal "married / 2 exemptions" type of withholding. I expect that the flexibility of withholding options will reside within the payment agent. I'm sorry if your payment agent isn't as flexible as you might like. Thanks,...
by IlliniDave
Tue Mar 30, 2021 1:50 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Voluntary state withholding from qualified pension?
Replies: 14
Views: 1199

Re: Voluntary state withholding from qualified pension?

I'm starting to actually deal with the process of retiring. Not as glorious as I envisioned all those years planning for it. Both the state I reside in now, and the state I plan to move to soon after retirement (Alabama and Illinois, respectively), are considered "voluntary withholding" states when it comes to pension income. I will have a modest pension income which isn't subject to state income tax in either state, but I anticipate having some tax liability in both from a small amount of taxable investment income I expect to receive. It seems like it would be convenient to have $50/mo or something withheld for state from my pension just to keep me from getting into a situation where I have to file quarterly. I did some Googling...
by IlliniDave
Tue Mar 30, 2021 7:58 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Can I stop working?
Replies: 120
Views: 14615

Re: Can I stop working?

If $150K/yr is a high confidence spending number, even with both of you retired the numbers seem to work out. Congrats and happy retirement.
by IlliniDave
Tue Mar 30, 2021 7:28 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Voluntary state withholding from qualified pension?
Replies: 14
Views: 1199

Voluntary state withholding from qualified pension?

I'm starting to actually deal with the process of retiring. Not as glorious as I envisioned all those years planning for it. Both the state I reside in now, and the state I plan to move to soon after retirement (Alabama and Illinois, respectively), are considered "voluntary withholding" states when it comes to pension income. I will have a modest pension income which isn't subject to state income tax in either state, but I anticipate having some tax liability in both from a small amount of taxable investment income I expect to receive. It seems like it would be convenient to have $50/mo or something withheld for state from my pension just to keep me from getting into a situation where I have to file quarterly. I did some Googling ...
by IlliniDave
Tue Mar 23, 2021 8:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wade Pfau on Asset Allocation Using PE10
Replies: 106
Views: 16290

Re: Wade Pfau on Asset Allocation Using PE10

Some interesting discussion here. Call it what you will, but I have some action thresholds in place at present. If SP500 PE(1) hits 30 I'll drop my equity by 10%. If it exceeds 35 I'll drop it another 10%. If it hits 40 that'll be another 10%. From there I'll just ride it out. I'll be down to 40%-50% equity at that point, but arguably much wealthier assuming the PE rise was due primarily to escalating Ps and not tumbling Es. I don't mind risk, but I won't sit by and do nothing when it appears risk is rising quickly and my need to expose myself to it falls at the same rate. Curious if you're still using these? They've been superseded by my proximity to retirement (about 4 mos). So, I ratcheted down a little ahead of that, been down in the ~...
by IlliniDave
Wed Feb 10, 2021 12:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 22381
Views: 2119877

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

MinnGuyInvesting wrote: Wed Feb 10, 2021 8:40 am
What's interesting about that is if a crash like that happens, so many people would be in such bad shape, that civilization would almost cease from a traditional sense where it would take decades to recover.
That's pretty much what he was expecting. I actually bought a little in March and April. Figured if it was the end of everything, I wouldn't miss the money.
by IlliniDave
Wed Feb 10, 2021 7:53 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Am I nuts? About to retire early without bulletproof money.
Replies: 109
Views: 22459

Re: Am I nuts? About to retire early without bulletproof money.

... Just a few years earlier, my salary had finally crossed into six figures and I had been doing catch-up contributions in an IRA and 401k. So there was a little trepidation. Not that I would not have "enough" but that I would be giving up future earnings of hundreds of thousands of dollars in income by retiring early instead of working to age sixty or later. But having watched my Mom going from full-time employment into a memory care facility due to early onset Alzheimer's and my parents retirement plans of moving to the SC coast vanish, as well as having several friends and colleagues pass away before retiring, my wife and I decided we had "enough" and I retired at age 53. ... Thanks, hearing from my successful prede...
by IlliniDave
Wed Feb 10, 2021 7:20 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Does paying off mortgage really reduce Sequence of Returns Risk?
Replies: 278
Views: 19213

Re: Does paying off mortgage really reduce Sequence of Returns Risk?

qwertyjazz wrote: Wed Feb 10, 2021 7:14 am
IlliniDave wrote: Wed Feb 10, 2021 7:07 am If I did the numbers right, we're saying a 3.1% withdrawal rate (keep mortgage) is safer than a 2.6% withdrawal rate (pay mortgage) when it comes to SOR? That's counterintuitive, but interesting.
Assuming you lock in current mortgage interest rates and have historical returns and inflation ...
Okay, but having control of only one of three variables, and SORR being specific to times where the second assumption is untrue, seems like a wobbly stool. Luckily in the OP situation it doesn't make a ton of difference one way or the other.
by IlliniDave
Wed Feb 10, 2021 7:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bonds - Throw it all on the table!
Replies: 499
Views: 92671

Re: Bonds - Throw it all on the table!!!

abuss368 wrote: Wed Feb 10, 2021 7:06 am
IlliniDave wrote: Wed Feb 10, 2021 6:50 am No impact to my decisions.

In my retirement account bond portion is split between a Barclay's aggregate index (intermediate-term) "investment trust" and Brock Gov't Short-Term. In my taxable account I hold some Intermediate-term Tax Exempt. I expect a substantial decline in taxable income starting in 2022 so those may get rolled into a short-term treasure fund or something.
No plans to allocate more to stocks correct (and thus higher risk to the portfolio)?

Tony
Not specifically because of current interest rates. I'm retiring either at the end of March, or (worst case) the end of June, so for the next 3-5 years stability is important. After that I'll probably start ramping back up.
by IlliniDave
Wed Feb 10, 2021 7:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 22381
Views: 2119877

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Brianmcg321 wrote: Wed Feb 10, 2021 7:06 am
IlliniDave wrote: Wed Feb 10, 2021 6:41 am
manatee2005 wrote: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:56 pm
firebirdparts wrote: Mon Feb 08, 2021 6:14 pm Today was nuts for me. I don't even know what to do. ATH seems an inadequate description.
Imagine people who sold in March and still in cash waiting for a dip to get in
I know a guy who sold out completely last March (maybe late Feb) and is indeed waiting for the dip. He seemed wise and prescient last April, haha
He didn’t think March was dip enough?
No, he'd been obsessing over the emerging pandemic story since January '20 and was expecting a crash of unprecedented magnitude.
by IlliniDave
Wed Feb 10, 2021 7:07 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Does paying off mortgage really reduce Sequence of Returns Risk?
Replies: 278
Views: 19213

Re: Does paying off mortgage really reduce Sequence of Returns Risk?

If I did the numbers right, we're saying a 3.1% withdrawal rate (keep mortgage) is safer than a 2.6% withdrawal rate (pay mortgage) when it comes to SOR? That's counterintuitive, but interesting.
by IlliniDave
Wed Feb 10, 2021 6:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 22381
Views: 2119877

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

abuss368 wrote: Wed Feb 10, 2021 5:49 am My truck is gassing up! Going to be going in reverse soon.

Tony
It seems almost perverse that every time stimulus is passed I wind up making way more (on paper) than the stimulus recipients get. Hard to see that being viable much longer. It's fun on the upslope.
by IlliniDave
Wed Feb 10, 2021 6:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bonds - Throw it all on the table!
Replies: 499
Views: 92671

Re: Bonds - Throw it all on the table!!!

No impact to my decisions.

In my retirement account bond portion is split between a Barclay's aggregate index (intermediate-term) "investment trust" and Brock Gov't Short-Term. In my taxable account I hold some Intermediate-term Tax Exempt. I expect a substantial decline in taxable income starting in 2022 so those may get rolled into a short-term treasure fund or something.
by IlliniDave
Wed Feb 10, 2021 6:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 22381
Views: 2119877

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

manatee2005 wrote: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:56 pm
firebirdparts wrote: Mon Feb 08, 2021 6:14 pm Today was nuts for me. I don't even know what to do. ATH seems an inadequate description.
Imagine people who sold in March and still in cash waiting for a dip to get in
I know a guy who sold out completely last March (maybe late Feb) and is indeed waiting for the dip. He seemed wise and prescient last April, haha
by IlliniDave
Wed Feb 10, 2021 6:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond yields of 1% mean that 60/40-type allocations are off for almost everyone?
Replies: 132
Views: 15261

Re: Bond yields of 1% mean that 60/40-type allocations are off for almost everyone?

The current phase of my plan calls for 60% +/ 10% equities (I'm at 51%) and I'm going to stay the course. I'm in sequence of returns risk territory (retiring later this year). Low bond yields just means I'm comfortable holding somewhat more cash than I have historically. In my AA strategy I count bonds and cash together as "stable value assets". During the heart of my accumulation years I was very stock heavy and I suppose I'd do that today as well although the current climate feels like elevated risk vs blunted reward compared to history.
by IlliniDave
Wed Feb 10, 2021 6:27 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Am I nuts? About to retire early without bulletproof money.
Replies: 109
Views: 22459

Re: Am I nuts? About to retire early without bulletproof money.

I would like to thank everyone who took the time to respond. I didn't respond or acknowledge everyone personally, but that's not from being unappreciative. The breadth of topics got me thinking about things that even if I'd thought through them in the past, its been a while and a revisit is in order (plus some new things). The consensus indicates that while future results are not guaranteed, the numbers work out and I didn't leave any gaping holes. I did get a wrinkle where someone asked me to stick around until the end of June so I'm entertaining that thought, but leery of it because of the infamous one-more-year syndrome.

Once again, thanks everyone.
by IlliniDave
Wed Feb 10, 2021 6:20 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Am I nuts? About to retire early without bulletproof money.
Replies: 109
Views: 22459

Re: Am I nuts? About to retire early without bulletproof money.

I don't plan on moving in with my dad. I'm looking at buying a home from another older relative who is anxious to downsize into a senior-friendly development due to mounting health concerns. It's large enough I could move Dad in with me one day if it comes to that. I actually think he would like someone to move in with him, the almost 3 years now since my mom passed has been the only time in his life where he's lived alone. But I've been living alone now for 10+ years since my youngest daughter moved out (kids stayed w/me after divorce) and rather like it. When we talk on the phone he frequently asks when I'm going to retire, but I don't know for sure if it's because he's looking forward to me moving back, or dreading it. The house I'll be...
by IlliniDave
Tue Feb 09, 2021 12:46 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Are Bogleheads still investing at Vanguard?
Replies: 131
Views: 14412

Re: Are Bogleheads still investing at Vanguard?

Everything except my 401k is still at Vanguard. Ditching the ship logo almost made me leave. As time goes on there seems to be less and less distinguishing Vanguard from others as long as the ownership structure stays in place I'll probably stick it out.
by IlliniDave
Tue Feb 09, 2021 12:15 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Am I nuts? About to retire early without bulletproof money.
Replies: 109
Views: 22459

Re: Am I nuts? About to retire early without bulletproof money.

We long form it here as " sequence of return risk " and there Monte Carlo simulators and you should run a couple of them with conservative return projections. That's a good reminder. Thanks. From my post account it's safe to infer I was a regular here in the 2013-16/7 time frame, so the term is familiar. I was so obsessed with things like firecalc and Tyler9000s visualizer that I wrote my own Monte Carlo simulation in Matlab so I could dial in pessimistic returns to my liking and add a random component to spending including random dispersed biggies like a new roof or vehicle, annual rebalancing, AA glide path, etc. Those were the days, haha. Millions and millions of trials. At the end my conclusions was that as long as the trend ...
by IlliniDave
Tue Feb 09, 2021 12:01 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Am I nuts? About to retire early without bulletproof money.
Replies: 109
Views: 22459

Re: Am I nuts? About to retire early without bulletproof money.

SgwayMontrose wrote: Mon Feb 08, 2021 10:30 am Good luck OP. I find this title/post combination unnecessarily alarmist and somewhat insulting. Perhaps you just needed to talk it out a little bit or are wanting to show off some, hope it helped, truly.
Apologies if you found it insulting. Not my intent--I'm not here to troll.
by IlliniDave
Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:59 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Am I nuts? About to retire early without bulletproof money.
Replies: 109
Views: 22459

Re: Am I nuts? About to retire early without bulletproof money.

So two questions: Does the corporate health care plan coverage area include the other location? (or any future location you might consider after your father passes) Is the fathers location one you would consider for your long term retirement (even after his passing)? If not, you might be better off renting such that you would be able to change residence easily and at minimal cost and lower stress (especially right after his passing). (Also consider how much care, and the type of care, that might be needed and determine if the proposed location is appropriate.) It's a UHC network plan and there seems to be at least a pretty good number of providers up in the county in N Illinois I intend to move to, and up in the far corner of MN near the c...
by IlliniDave
Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:46 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Am I nuts? About to retire early without bulletproof money.
Replies: 109
Views: 22459

Re: Am I nuts? About to retire early without bulletproof money.

Wanderingwheelz wrote: Mon Feb 08, 2021 9:35 am I see my old man probably 6 days a week on average. He’ll be 80 this fall. I don’t care what your withdrawal rate is or how much money you have saved. I just give you massive respect for wanting to spend the time you do with your dad before he’s gone.
...
Thanks, in a lot of ways that means more than affirmation of the mathematics (which is quite helpful too).
by IlliniDave
Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:44 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Am I nuts? About to retire early without bulletproof money.
Replies: 109
Views: 22459

Re: Am I nuts? About to retire early without bulletproof money.

Duckinator wrote: Mon Feb 08, 2021 10:03 am SS: little over $30K/yr at 67 (data a couple years stale)

Is this off the SS website? If so I suspect it assumes you will continue to work until 67.
Sort of. The number is from early 2019. I was messing with one of the calculators on ssa.gov I said I was going to retire at 54 so it would fill in zeroes for 2019 (turned 54 that year) onward and it gave me an estimate for benefit at age 62 which I then modified for 67 and 70 based on the normal ratios between the three. So it was a pretty decent estimate at the time. Since then I maxed out 2 more years and will have enough this year to probably knock off one of my years during school having only a summer job. I just got reminder email to go check my statement, so that's on the list.
by IlliniDave
Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Am I nuts? About to retire early without bulletproof money.
Replies: 109
Views: 22459

Re: Am I nuts? About to retire early without bulletproof money.

Many of the peoples budgets and incomes here can be a bit intimidating. Compared to a lot of posted here I am pretty middle class. It might make you feel better to read the post I did about five years ago when I was about your age and I was deciding if I could retire or not and I probably had less than half of what you have and it was for a couple. (spoiler alert: it is working out fine.) https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=167664 ... Set any mutual fund in the taxable account to not automatically reinvest the dividends or capital gains distributions. You can either use that money to cover any additional expenses or reinvest it manually in some other mutual fund. In a year this will make all your capital gains long ter...
by IlliniDave
Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:27 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Am I nuts? About to retire early without bulletproof money.
Replies: 109
Views: 22459

Re: Am I nuts? About to retire early without bulletproof money.

In addition to the questions from other posters about the annuity (when does it start? and is it indexed for inflation?), the other question is about your annual expenses ($44k actual, $55k planned). Does the $55k include everything - living expenses, income taxes, post-retirement healthcare costs and lumpy expenses such as a new car)? The budget accounts for everything I anticipate to be outgoing including a plus-up for what I think my income tax will be. I do have sinking funds that are based on 7 years historic data for things like auto repair/upkeep and run of the mill home maintenance/repairs. For those big things like new vehicles, new roof, etc., I'm fudging a little and do not have a monthly line item. My plan for those is: -starti...