Search found 2298 matches

by IlliniDave
Mon Jul 08, 2019 4:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Americans believe they need $1.7 million, on average, to retire
Replies: 284
Views: 28442

Re: Americans believe they need $1.7 million, on average, to retire

I guess it depends on what your needs/wants/visions are. I'm retiring at 55 or 56, with a good bit less than this and still won't spend all the money. The average American retiree has no where near that kind of money. I think the median net worth of 65 year-olds in the US is under $200K. I like to t...
by IlliniDave
Wed May 15, 2019 5:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Did you buy the 600+ dip last week ?
Replies: 129
Views: 8634

Re: Did you buy the 600+ dip last week ?

Nope, not in the sense you mean. I made my normal payday 401k contribution and corresponding deposit into my taxable investment account, but did exactly the same thing as if it had been a +600 surge.
by IlliniDave
Tue Apr 23, 2019 12:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 1409
Views: 137494

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

... Loved it when the "stocks in freefall" thread would pop up and the markets reacted with a rally. This thread is the worst possible news. Oh man! Now you have done it, this thread might just end the 9 1/2 year bull market. Darn it anyway! :annoyed Nothing to worry about, the freefall thread will...
by IlliniDave
Tue Apr 23, 2019 12:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Avoid taxable transactions by not using automatic dividend reinvestment?
Replies: 13
Views: 1757

Re: Avoid taxable transactions by not using automatic dividend reinvestment?

I do the same, for that reason, plus like someone mentioned above, it reduces the number of tax lots to track and makes it easier to avoid partial wash when doing tax loss harvesting. It seems to me this is really only about simplification. While it avoids transactions, it's not really avoiding tax...
by IlliniDave
Tue Apr 23, 2019 11:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 1409
Views: 137494

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Stinky wrote:
Tue Apr 23, 2019 9:13 am
Soaring today.

All time intraday high for S&P is 2940.91. This morning, we’re back within 1% of that level.
Oh my gosh, another ALL TIME high. Obviously we're headed for oblivion. ( :moneybag).
by IlliniDave
Tue Apr 23, 2019 11:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Vanguard converting mutual fund accounts to brokerage?
Replies: 420
Views: 90123

Re: "Vanguard converting mutual fund accounts to brokerage?

I printed and mailed in the required form a full week ago and it still has not been processed. What? You have to print and mail in a form just because you converted a mutual fund account to a brokerage account? We have avoided converting an old account, but have set up two new ones in the last coup...
by IlliniDave
Tue Apr 23, 2019 2:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Avoid taxable transactions by not using automatic dividend reinvestment?
Replies: 13
Views: 1757

Re: Avoid taxable transactions by not using automatic dividend reinvestment?

Found the original quote here: https://www.mymoneyblog.com/portfolio-asset-allocation-2017-year-end.html As I suspected, he said it in the context of rebalancing. He uses new money and reinvests held dividends to maintain his target AA (thereby avoiding the taxable event that would occur if he need...
by IlliniDave
Mon Apr 15, 2019 6:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Home equity as % of AA
Replies: 41
Views: 3147

Re: Home equity as % of AA

I completely ignore all real estate equity when looking at and making decisions about AA of financial investments.

I use a conservative estimate of real estate equity when computing net worth, although net worth is not a real useful number.
by IlliniDave
Thu Apr 11, 2019 7:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Did I read this correctly? SS and your AA
Replies: 36
Views: 4225

Re: Did I read this correctly? SS and your AA

Indirectly, annuity-style income does have an effect on my AA. I'm not quite so literal on the "bond-like" way of thinking about things, but since SS plus pension will eat up a large fraction of my ongoing spending needs, I feel (being human, emotion drives my financial maneuvers no matter how much ...
by IlliniDave
Mon Apr 08, 2019 7:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are you an Inadvertent Market Timer?
Replies: 6
Views: 1568

Re: Are you an Inadvertent Market Timer?

I have to admit that I am, although as a contrarian. I've been "leaning away" from stocks the last 3+ years now. Part of that is policy-related, taking my pre-retirement glide path, but strictly speaking I've been a little more aggressive than I would be if I was a "letter of the law [IPS]" guy.
by IlliniDave
Thu Apr 04, 2019 3:30 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Annual Income Requests
Replies: 15
Views: 2278

Re: Annual Income Requests

I got told once by a CC issuer it was because of some regulations that were enacted I think with the USA Patriot Act requiring financial institutions to "know" their clients. This was probably 12ish years ago when I finally called them after receiving a fifth written request to provide income and ot...
by IlliniDave
Thu Mar 21, 2019 6:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ruminations on Taleb's "Antifragile" and its Applications to Retirement Income
Replies: 115
Views: 8416

Re: Ruminations on Taleb's "Antifragile" and its Applications to Retirement Income

From a pragmatic perspective, I limit the number of eventualities I try to guard against. For example, I don't worry too much about a collapse of the US. If that were to happen chances are I'd be dead prior to the final fall anyway. If you try to fortify too many fronts at once, you are vulnerable e...
by IlliniDave
Wed Mar 20, 2019 7:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: retirement / taxable accounts as two separate buckets
Replies: 17
Views: 1537

Re: retirement / taxable accounts as two separate buckets

... Does this make sense? It does. Bucketing/mental accounting is something that some people object to, but it doesn't really hurt anything. I have bonds and stocks in my 401k and bonds (tax exempt) and stocks in my taxable. My rationale is similar to yours insofar as I plan on a number of years wh...
by IlliniDave
Tue Mar 19, 2019 6:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Passive investing now controls nearly half the US stock market
Replies: 26
Views: 2296

Re: Passive investing now controls nearly half the US stock market

Is that half the entire US stock market, or half the retail mutual fund market? The total value of the stock market is over $30T I believe. $4T doesn't seem like half of that.
by IlliniDave
Mon Mar 18, 2019 6:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogleheads Whose Plans Failed: What did (do) you do?
Replies: 11
Views: 4206

Re: Bogleheads Whose Plans Failed: What did (do) you do?

That's a complicated set of questions to reply to succinctly. For me divorce was the big midlife financial setback. Three years later in late 2011 I was looking at potential job loss. Though fortunately it didn't come to that, having potential un- or under-employment looming on the horizon was a gre...
by IlliniDave
Thu Mar 14, 2019 8:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do you have belief?
Replies: 17
Views: 1372

Re: Do you have belief?

I believe I can be successful. I don't believe my success is guaranteed.
by IlliniDave
Tue Mar 12, 2019 9:18 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: New Dentist - what to watch for financially
Replies: 24
Views: 2489

Re: New Dentist - what to watch for financially

My long-term dentist sold the practice at the end of 2017 and I've been a couple times to the dentist who took it over. One thing I've noticed that I'm initially leery of is this new dentist is very big on products, almost to the point I would call "pushy". I don't know enough to judge whether these...
by IlliniDave
Mon Mar 11, 2019 6:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Pushing the frontier of behavioral finance
Replies: 38
Views: 3557

Re: Pushing the frontier of behavioral finance

1) Insofar as I am a boglehead, I would say that adherence to a relatively passive/buy and hold strategy combined with a belief in the Cost Matters Hypothesis. 2) Not exactly sure what you want to know here. I think a key to success is aligning investment strategy with temperament so that investing ...
by IlliniDave
Sat Mar 02, 2019 11:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do most financial advisors push the lump sum option?
Replies: 42
Views: 3142

Re: Do most financial advisors push the lump sum option?

Sorry, if I missed it somewhere above, but it seems hard to judge what the advisors said not knowing the entire situation. Certainly they will be predisposed towards recommending the lump sum/invest option, but it doesn't necessarily mean they are wrong. I only have an annuity option from my employe...
by IlliniDave
Sat Mar 02, 2019 7:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: “Market Always Goes Up” defense without past performance
Replies: 143
Views: 9368

Re: “Market Always Goes Up” defense without past performance

Basically, if a person doesn't believe it's reasonable to expect a sufficient return on an investment over a relevant time period, then that person should not sink money into that investment. "sufficient return" and "relevant time period" are deliberately vague because they need to be matched to the...
by IlliniDave
Sat Mar 02, 2019 7:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why does dividend investing not work?
Replies: 147
Views: 15540

Re: Why does dividend investing not work?

White Coat Investor wrote:
Fri Mar 01, 2019 8:22 pm

It works fine. Is it the best way to invest? I don't think so. But to say it doesn't work is silly. It does work. Lots of people have retired successfully using this method of investing.
+1
by IlliniDave
Fri Mar 01, 2019 10:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why are Backdoor Roths so popular are this forum?
Replies: 47
Views: 5132

Re: Why are Backdoor Roths so popular are this forum?

Can't speak for everyone. In my case I expect lower retirement tax rates, but I max out my 401k contribution every year, so the primary tax advantaged options left to me are either a non-deductible IRA, or a non-deductible IRA converted to a Roth. The conversion makes sense for me because I don't h...
by IlliniDave
Thu Feb 28, 2019 9:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why are Backdoor Roths so popular are this forum?
Replies: 47
Views: 5132

Re: Why are Backdoor Roths so popular are this forum?

Can't speak for everyone. In my case I expect lower retirement tax rates, but I max out my 401k contribution every year, so the primary tax advantaged options left to me are either a non-deductible IRA, or a non-deductible IRA converted to a Roth. The conversion makes sense for me because I don't ha...
by IlliniDave
Sat Feb 16, 2019 8:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Did you get spooked by the December 2018 fall and gave up on passive?
Replies: 133
Views: 8138

Re: Did you get spooked by the December 2018 fall and gave up on passive?

No, I rode it out with everything on automatic. I'm getting near retirement so I was already on a glide path to up my bond allocation, and for almost three years now virtually all of my new money has been going into bonds which made it easier (both because holding more bonds than I have in the past ...
by IlliniDave
Sat Feb 16, 2019 8:23 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Emergency Fund Account - best option
Replies: 22
Views: 1869

Re: Emergency Fund Account - best option

Assuming you are talking traditional cash emergency funds, I typically have $3-5K of money that would be available for emergency expenses at my bank and the rest in Vanguard Prime MM. That works for me because it is simple.
by IlliniDave
Fri Feb 01, 2019 5:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: An emergency fund cautionary tale
Replies: 89
Views: 10963

Re: An emergency fund cautionary tale

I'm a believer in old school emergency funds, especially for people who have not developed a lot of financial sophistication. For the habitual long time long-term saver any number of account types can be an emergency fund dressed in fancy clothes. In principle everything one owns is one big emergenc...
by IlliniDave
Thu Jan 17, 2019 4:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: John Bogle has died at age 89
Replies: 856
Views: 53612

Re: John Bogle has died at age 89

At a loss for words. RIP, Mr Bogle. Few have the positive impact you've had.
by IlliniDave
Thu Sep 06, 2018 12:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard - You'll need to sign up for security codes soon
Replies: 189
Views: 27292

Re: Vanguard - You'll need to sign up for security codes soon

I wish they had an option to both recognize my devices but always require security codes to move money out of the account irrespective of device. I'm one of those somewhat unusual people who allows physical separation between myself and my phone, so always requiring codes can get into PITA territory...
by IlliniDave
Thu Sep 06, 2018 12:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Taylor's new book is #1
Replies: 32
Views: 6276

Re: Taylor's new book is #1

Congratulations, Taylor! :happy
by IlliniDave
Fri Aug 31, 2018 7:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does Sequence of Returns Risk even make sense for early retirees?
Replies: 10
Views: 1385

Re: Does Sequence of Returns Risk even make sense for early retirees?

Here's another way to look at it. Person A and person B are the same age and live the same general lifestyle. Assume: Person A retires in year 0 (when A and B are both 55, say) with $1M and in year 10 (both A and B are now 65) has $1.2M left Person B retires in year 10 with $1.2M Essentially, they a...
by IlliniDave
Wed Aug 29, 2018 7:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 1409
Views: 137494

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

The week before last I adjusted along my glide path and traded about 8% of my US equities for bonds. Of course now I wish I'd have waited until this week, but that's the breaks. I like stocks going up but I really hope there is some persistence in the economy so people who have struggled over the la...
by IlliniDave
Sat Aug 25, 2018 5:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Nice Explanation of Volatility Drag
Replies: 31
Views: 2987

Re: Nice Explanation of Volatility Drag

To me volatility drag isn't really a thing because it amounts to comparing an actual return to a hypothetical return that is based on an arithmetic error--taking the arithmetic average of a sequence of geometric returns then applying it geometrically. In other words, the arithmetic mean of a series ...
by IlliniDave
Sat Aug 25, 2018 8:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2000-2018 retirement - sequence of returns
Replies: 153
Views: 14983

Re: 2000-2018 retirement - sequence of returns

Good stuff, Homer. Thanks for taking the time to pt that together into a post. The 100% stock table is striking. Like you I'd be pretty nervous seeing more than 60% of my money gone 9 years in. As someone planning for ER, sitting 18 years in, at the top of a long bull market, with less than half my ...
by IlliniDave
Sat Aug 25, 2018 8:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Nytimes article [S.&P. Closes at a Record]
Replies: 18
Views: 1759

Re: Nytimes article

I'm much more comfortable being invested when the popular press is sounding the death knell of the market. Independent of Wall Street, I'm happy to see the economy maintaining signs of life.
by IlliniDave
Wed Aug 22, 2018 3:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Bigger Story: Fidelity Expense Ratios
Replies: 98
Views: 11728

Re: The Bigger Story: Fidelity Expense Ratios

Fidelity manages my employer's 401k and HSA, and for the most part I think they do a fantastic job (a lot of credit goes to my megacorp too, for keeping the pressure on Fidelity wrt costs). I've only been a direct Vanguard customer for about 8 years now, but they've given me no reason to complain. I...
by IlliniDave
Tue Aug 21, 2018 3:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard predicts 10 year equity returns
Replies: 91
Views: 11014

Re: Vanguard predicts 10 year equity returns

So in other words... "Nobody knows nuthin'." I think it comes down to a Pascal's wager of sorts. Is better to act with an expectation of relatively low returns and be wrong than to act with an expectation of relatively high returns and be wrong when a rational case can be made that low end outcomes...
by IlliniDave
Mon Aug 20, 2018 7:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard predicts 10 year equity returns
Replies: 91
Views: 11014

Re: Vanguard predicts 10 year equity returns

I don't think awareness of a good faith best estimate of how things might play out in the medium-term necessarily equates to market timing. In my view their are three valid aspects to consider. 1. A person in their heavy-lifting accumulation years might consider a higher contribution rate if they h...
by IlliniDave
Mon Aug 20, 2018 3:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard predicts 10 year equity returns
Replies: 91
Views: 11014

Re: Vanguard predicts 10 year equity returns

I don't think awareness of a good faith best estimate of how things might play out in the medium-term necessarily equates to market timing. In my view their are three valid aspects to consider. 1. A person in their heavy-lifting accumulation years might consider a higher contribution rate if they ha...
by IlliniDave
Tue Jul 31, 2018 7:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are women worse at investment?
Replies: 24
Views: 1608

Re: Are women worse at investment?

I'm in the group that have read/heard women tend to do better, mainly because they are better at buying/holding and not fooling around and introducing less behavioral error. Thought the first place I saw it was one of the Vanguard studies on their retirement accounts, but I'm not 100% on that.
by IlliniDave
Sat Jul 28, 2018 9:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Passive Index Investing, A Bubble Bound To Burst?
Replies: 115
Views: 12824

Re: Passive Index Investing, A Bubble Bound To Burst?

What gets me in these sorts of things is the idea that index investing is somehow fundamentally different than non-index investing and will have fundamentally different outcomes if certain things happen. Index funds are just baskets of stocks or bonds. Index investors will basically get the same res...
by IlliniDave
Mon Jul 09, 2018 3:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Capping Emergency Fund
Replies: 53
Views: 5435

Re: Capping Emergency Fund

In the spirit of a primary purpose of an emergency fund being to see one through a period characterized by no income from work, to me it's all a giant emergency fund and so never deliberately capped. Retirement is essentially a (hopefully) decades-long period without employment. I keep about year's ...
by IlliniDave
Mon Jul 02, 2018 12:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "homemade dividends" from Total Stock Market fund
Replies: 135
Views: 9923

Re: "homemade dividends" from Total Stock Market fund

I think that PJW is right upthread: that the capital structure, so to speak, is completely different for bonds and coupons than for stock ownership and dividends. eg: A bond coupon is under a contract to pay that coupon; else in default. With stocks, you are a company owner. A dividend payment is a...
by IlliniDave
Mon Jul 02, 2018 12:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "homemade dividends" from Total Stock Market fund
Replies: 135
Views: 9923

Re: "homemade dividends" from Total Stock Market fund

Phineas J. Whoopee wrote:
Mon Jul 02, 2018 10:19 am

That's pretty weird, since you asked specifically about bonds.

PJW
Not really, you posted about bonds in a thread about stock dividends and I asked you a question. I shall not do that again as you seem a little prickly about it and I don't like to aggravate people.
by IlliniDave
Mon Jul 02, 2018 6:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "homemade dividends" from Total Stock Market fund
Replies: 135
Views: 9923

Re: "homemade dividends" from Total Stock Market fund

It seems the thread has veered since your post here, but I'll explain it another way so hopefully there will be no confusion. Do not think of equity fund dividends and bond fund dividends in the same way. They are not. Yeah, I get the mechanism with stocks, I'm just thinking through the other side ...
by IlliniDave
Mon Jul 02, 2018 6:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "homemade dividends" from Total Stock Market fund
Replies: 135
Views: 9923

Re: "homemade dividends" from Total Stock Market fund

... So it seems loosely analogous to buying a stock immediately prior to the ex-dividend date , assuming a market estimate of the value of the upcoming dividend is implicitly priced in as the time after the last ex-dividend date progresses. Do you want to invest based on analogies or on facts? ... ...
by IlliniDave
Sun Jul 01, 2018 4:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "homemade dividends" from Total Stock Market fund
Replies: 135
Views: 9923

Re: "homemade dividends" from Total Stock Market fund

It is true, in both theory and practice, because of the way the bond market is structured. If you own a bond which pays a semiannual coupon, and it's four months since the most recent coupon payment, and I buy it from you, in addition to the price of the bond I have to give you its prorated coupon....
by IlliniDave
Sun Jul 01, 2018 2:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "homemade dividends" from Total Stock Market fund
Replies: 135
Views: 9923

Re: "homemade dividends" from Total Stock Market fund

Although I still think some clarification is in order because some people might misunderstand your point. The dividends posted from bonds, CDs and most bond funds do not reduce the principal by the amount of the dividend (this is not true of bond ETFs). However, the dividends posted from equity fun...
by IlliniDave
Sun Jul 01, 2018 4:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "homemade dividends" from Total Stock Market fund
Replies: 135
Views: 9923

Re: "homemade dividends" from Total Stock Market fund

My thoughts: If your temperament is such that spending only dividends is what you are most comfortable with, that is fine. But it does mean that in order to remain diversified you might have to save up more. Fundamentally, if feeling secure is the concern, larger savings relative to spending is the ...
by IlliniDave
Thu Jun 21, 2018 6:24 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What is/ was your career and would you recommend it now?
Replies: 482
Views: 52955

Re: What is/ was your career and would you recommend it now?

Engineer. If I had it all to do over again I might choose differently, but I wouldn't globally recommend against it.
by IlliniDave
Thu Jun 21, 2018 3:42 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Retire at 50: Should I?
Replies: 93
Views: 13934

Re: Retire at 50: Should I?

OP looks pretty well prepared from a financial perspective. Definitely gets a green light from my opinion. I'm looking at going at 55 or so (about 1.5 years) with a lot less money but with lower ongoing expenses. Healthcare for the 10 years I'll be ineligible for Medicare is a worry. I currently pla...