Search found 2271 matches

by IlliniDave
Thu Sep 06, 2018 12:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard - You'll need to sign up for security codes soon
Replies: 187
Views: 24924

Re: Vanguard - You'll need to sign up for security codes soon

I wish they had an option to both recognize my devices but always require security codes to move money out of the account irrespective of device. I'm one of those somewhat unusual people who allows physical separation between myself and my phone, so always requiring codes can get into PITA territory...
by IlliniDave
Thu Sep 06, 2018 12:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Taylor's new book is #1
Replies: 32
Views: 6027

Re: Taylor's new book is #1

Congratulations, Taylor! :happy
by IlliniDave
Fri Aug 31, 2018 7:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does Sequence of Returns Risk even make sense for early retirees?
Replies: 10
Views: 1307

Re: Does Sequence of Returns Risk even make sense for early retirees?

Here's another way to look at it. Person A and person B are the same age and live the same general lifestyle. Assume: Person A retires in year 0 (when A and B are both 55, say) with $1M and in year 10 (both A and B are now 65) has $1.2M left Person B retires in year 10 with $1.2M Essentially, they a...
by IlliniDave
Wed Aug 29, 2018 7:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 363
Views: 40310

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

The week before last I adjusted along my glide path and traded about 8% of my US equities for bonds. Of course now I wish I'd have waited until this week, but that's the breaks. I like stocks going up but I really hope there is some persistence in the economy so people who have struggled over the la...
by IlliniDave
Sat Aug 25, 2018 5:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Nice Explanation of Volatility Drag
Replies: 31
Views: 2597

Re: Nice Explanation of Volatility Drag

To me volatility drag isn't really a thing because it amounts to comparing an actual return to a hypothetical return that is based on an arithmetic error--taking the arithmetic average of a sequence of geometric returns then applying it geometrically. In other words, the arithmetic mean of a series ...
by IlliniDave
Sat Aug 25, 2018 8:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2000-2018 retirement - sequence of returns
Replies: 153
Views: 13886

Re: 2000-2018 retirement - sequence of returns

Good stuff, Homer. Thanks for taking the time to pt that together into a post. The 100% stock table is striking. Like you I'd be pretty nervous seeing more than 60% of my money gone 9 years in. As someone planning for ER, sitting 18 years in, at the top of a long bull market, with less than half my ...
by IlliniDave
Sat Aug 25, 2018 8:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Nytimes article [S.&P. Closes at a Record]
Replies: 18
Views: 1709

Re: Nytimes article

I'm much more comfortable being invested when the popular press is sounding the death knell of the market. Independent of Wall Street, I'm happy to see the economy maintaining signs of life.
by IlliniDave
Wed Aug 22, 2018 3:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Bigger Story: Fidelity Expense Ratios
Replies: 98
Views: 10920

Re: The Bigger Story: Fidelity Expense Ratios

Fidelity manages my employer's 401k and HSA, and for the most part I think they do a fantastic job (a lot of credit goes to my megacorp too, for keeping the pressure on Fidelity wrt costs). I've only been a direct Vanguard customer for about 8 years now, but they've given me no reason to complain. I...
by IlliniDave
Tue Aug 21, 2018 3:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard predicts 10 year equity returns
Replies: 91
Views: 10555

Re: Vanguard predicts 10 year equity returns

So in other words... "Nobody knows nuthin'." I think it comes down to a Pascal's wager of sorts. Is better to act with an expectation of relatively low returns and be wrong than to act with an expectation of relatively high returns and be wrong when a rational case can be made that low end outcomes...
by IlliniDave
Mon Aug 20, 2018 7:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard predicts 10 year equity returns
Replies: 91
Views: 10555

Re: Vanguard predicts 10 year equity returns

I don't think awareness of a good faith best estimate of how things might play out in the medium-term necessarily equates to market timing. In my view their are three valid aspects to consider. 1. A person in their heavy-lifting accumulation years might consider a higher contribution rate if they h...
by IlliniDave
Mon Aug 20, 2018 3:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard predicts 10 year equity returns
Replies: 91
Views: 10555

Re: Vanguard predicts 10 year equity returns

I don't think awareness of a good faith best estimate of how things might play out in the medium-term necessarily equates to market timing. In my view their are three valid aspects to consider. 1. A person in their heavy-lifting accumulation years might consider a higher contribution rate if they ha...
by IlliniDave
Tue Jul 31, 2018 7:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are women worse at investment?
Replies: 24
Views: 1525

Re: Are women worse at investment?

I'm in the group that have read/heard women tend to do better, mainly because they are better at buying/holding and not fooling around and introducing less behavioral error. Thought the first place I saw it was one of the Vanguard studies on their retirement accounts, but I'm not 100% on that.
by IlliniDave
Sat Jul 28, 2018 9:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Passive Index Investing, A Bubble Bound To Burst?
Replies: 114
Views: 12085

Re: Passive Index Investing, A Bubble Bound To Burst?

What gets me in these sorts of things is the idea that index investing is somehow fundamentally different than non-index investing and will have fundamentally different outcomes if certain things happen. Index funds are just baskets of stocks or bonds. Index investors will basically get the same res...
by IlliniDave
Mon Jul 09, 2018 3:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Capping Emergency Fund
Replies: 53
Views: 5155

Re: Capping Emergency Fund

In the spirit of a primary purpose of an emergency fund being to see one through a period characterized by no income from work, to me it's all a giant emergency fund and so never deliberately capped. Retirement is essentially a (hopefully) decades-long period without employment. I keep about year's ...
by IlliniDave
Mon Jul 02, 2018 12:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "homemade dividends" from Total Stock Market fund
Replies: 135
Views: 9542

Re: "homemade dividends" from Total Stock Market fund

I think that PJW is right upthread: that the capital structure, so to speak, is completely different for bonds and coupons than for stock ownership and dividends. eg: A bond coupon is under a contract to pay that coupon; else in default. With stocks, you are a company owner. A dividend payment is a...
by IlliniDave
Mon Jul 02, 2018 12:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "homemade dividends" from Total Stock Market fund
Replies: 135
Views: 9542

Re: "homemade dividends" from Total Stock Market fund

Phineas J. Whoopee wrote:
Mon Jul 02, 2018 10:19 am

That's pretty weird, since you asked specifically about bonds.

PJW
Not really, you posted about bonds in a thread about stock dividends and I asked you a question. I shall not do that again as you seem a little prickly about it and I don't like to aggravate people.
by IlliniDave
Mon Jul 02, 2018 6:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "homemade dividends" from Total Stock Market fund
Replies: 135
Views: 9542

Re: "homemade dividends" from Total Stock Market fund

It seems the thread has veered since your post here, but I'll explain it another way so hopefully there will be no confusion. Do not think of equity fund dividends and bond fund dividends in the same way. They are not. Yeah, I get the mechanism with stocks, I'm just thinking through the other side ...
by IlliniDave
Mon Jul 02, 2018 6:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "homemade dividends" from Total Stock Market fund
Replies: 135
Views: 9542

Re: "homemade dividends" from Total Stock Market fund

... So it seems loosely analogous to buying a stock immediately prior to the ex-dividend date , assuming a market estimate of the value of the upcoming dividend is implicitly priced in as the time after the last ex-dividend date progresses. Do you want to invest based on analogies or on facts? ... ...
by IlliniDave
Sun Jul 01, 2018 4:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "homemade dividends" from Total Stock Market fund
Replies: 135
Views: 9542

Re: "homemade dividends" from Total Stock Market fund

It is true, in both theory and practice, because of the way the bond market is structured. If you own a bond which pays a semiannual coupon, and it's four months since the most recent coupon payment, and I buy it from you, in addition to the price of the bond I have to give you its prorated coupon....
by IlliniDave
Sun Jul 01, 2018 2:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "homemade dividends" from Total Stock Market fund
Replies: 135
Views: 9542

Re: "homemade dividends" from Total Stock Market fund

Although I still think some clarification is in order because some people might misunderstand your point. The dividends posted from bonds, CDs and most bond funds do not reduce the principal by the amount of the dividend (this is not true of bond ETFs). However, the dividends posted from equity fun...
by IlliniDave
Sun Jul 01, 2018 4:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "homemade dividends" from Total Stock Market fund
Replies: 135
Views: 9542

Re: "homemade dividends" from Total Stock Market fund

My thoughts: If your temperament is such that spending only dividends is what you are most comfortable with, that is fine. But it does mean that in order to remain diversified you might have to save up more. Fundamentally, if feeling secure is the concern, larger savings relative to spending is the ...
by IlliniDave
Thu Jun 21, 2018 6:24 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What is/ was your career and would you recommend it now?
Replies: 345
Views: 35844

Re: What is/ was your career and would you recommend it now?

Engineer. If I had it all to do over again I might choose differently, but I wouldn't globally recommend against it.
by IlliniDave
Thu Jun 21, 2018 3:42 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Retire at 50: Should I?
Replies: 93
Views: 13101

Re: Retire at 50: Should I?

OP looks pretty well prepared from a financial perspective. Definitely gets a green light from my opinion. I'm looking at going at 55 or so (about 1.5 years) with a lot less money but with lower ongoing expenses. Healthcare for the 10 years I'll be ineligible for Medicare is a worry. I currently pla...
by IlliniDave
Mon Jun 18, 2018 5:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which boglehead rule do you break--and are ok with
Replies: 152
Views: 12976

Re: Which boglehead rule do you break--and are ok with

I lean a little towards being a tactical asset allocator in that I'll let my stock allocation vary by +/- 10% depending on how I feel. I also have a palette of stuff that's a little messier than is typical for a boglehead.
by IlliniDave
Sun Jun 17, 2018 6:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What do you sell after the emergency fund?
Replies: 25
Views: 1707

Re: What do you sell after the emergency fund?

I have a pretty good dollop of muni bonds in my taxable account which, in a sense, I consider a second tier of my emergency fund. The cash plus those are enough to get me through four years on tight rations. If it happened tomorrow, hypothetically, I'd be 58 when that money ran out, so I'd sell enou...
by IlliniDave
Sun Jun 17, 2018 6:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A different theoretical view of SWR
Replies: 63
Views: 4363

Re: A different theoretical view of SWR

That's a reasonable way of looking at it. I too am a little leery of taking too much stock either in history, or in forecasts. I also view withdrawal rate as just a first-order approximation and really don't intend to follow the withdrawal strategy that is usually linked with them. It's difficult to...
by IlliniDave
Sun Jun 17, 2018 6:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Oh my! Cardone says we need $10m net worth
Replies: 104
Views: 14731

Re: Oh my! Cardone says we need $10m net worth

$10M is probably where one is getting into virtually bulletproof wealth territory, but strictly following that guidance means fully 99% of us would be wheeled out of our workplaces feet-first with a sheet over our faces. Maybe he was overly traumatized by his upbringing, or maybe his (presumed) fina...
by IlliniDave
Thu Jun 14, 2018 8:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New JUST ETF - thoughts?
Replies: 12
Views: 833

Re: New JUST ETF - thoughts?

The problem for me with those types of "filters" is that there's no way of really knowing how much the values/morality of the fund's decision makers overlap with my values/morals. So I try to leave that sort of judgement out of investing.
by IlliniDave
Sat Jun 09, 2018 4:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Don’t cheat yourself with the 4% rule
Replies: 184
Views: 26270

Re: Don’t cheat yourself with the 4% rule

Maybe I am reading too much into it, but i do notice many poster advocating sub 2.5% because "valuations are high", "bonds yields are low", "healthcare is expensive", "you don't know what the future will bring, it may be different than the past", etc. But, you may be right that they are just descri...
by IlliniDave
Sat Jun 09, 2018 9:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Don’t cheat yourself with the 4% rule
Replies: 184
Views: 26270

Re: Don’t cheat yourself with the 4% rule

I agree that is a likely common scenario, and it is very fortunate situation to be in. Where i tend to disagree is when some of those people who may have arrived at this situation as you describe then make the assertion that the (much) lower WR are really required because "XYZ" risk looming on the ...
by IlliniDave
Sat Jun 09, 2018 7:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Don’t cheat yourself with the 4% rule
Replies: 184
Views: 26270

Re: Don’t cheat yourself with the 4% rule

The thought of "just 10 more years" so I can achieve a ridiculously low spending rate as a percentage of wealth seems like an especially pointless exercise. I have far better things to do with my remaining and completely unknown number of years on this earth than undertake that project, and even at...
by IlliniDave
Fri Jun 08, 2018 6:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Don’t cheat yourself with the 4% rule
Replies: 184
Views: 26270

Re: Don’t cheat yourself with the 4% rule

I think a bigger error is believing life can't really be lived properly until after retirement. Better to start valuing life now and living to reflect that today. I completely agree. But an unfortunate truth is that many do not particularly enjoy what they do for income, and changing this situation...
by IlliniDave
Fri Jun 08, 2018 6:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Psychology of Money - A Blog Post
Replies: 67
Views: 10615

Re: The Psychology of Money - A Blog Post

This is really good. I think his pyramid is spot on and I've never seen it laid out so clearly.
by IlliniDave
Fri Jun 08, 2018 3:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Don’t cheat yourself with the 4% rule
Replies: 184
Views: 26270

Re: Don’t cheat yourself with the 4% rule

Sadly, this view of comparing one's remaining life expectancy to one's forecasted retirement success rate is missing from most discussions of this topic. It's an uncomfortable thing to think about. "Life expectancy" is a 50/50 proposition. I think a bigger error is believing life can't really be li...
by IlliniDave
Thu Jun 07, 2018 1:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Don’t cheat yourself with the 4% rule
Replies: 184
Views: 26270

Re: Don’t cheat yourself with the 4% rule

Rarely mentioned by the ultra-low SWR planners (that also often seem keen on discounting pensions and SS) are how many more years or decades they worked or plan to work versus using more normal assumptions. I also hope they have $5 million or more. 2.5% SWR on say $2 million is $50K a year househol...
by IlliniDave
Thu Jun 07, 2018 4:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Don’t cheat yourself with the 4% rule
Replies: 184
Views: 26270

Re: Don’t cheat yourself with the 4% r

“I’m planning on a 2.5% [1.5%...0.5%...] portfolio withdrawal rate” is more an implicit brag about the size of poster’s portfolio than a reasoned objection to the so-called 4% rule. ... Does the 4% rule apply to affluent retirees: those with several millions, tens of millions and beyond? The short ...
by IlliniDave
Wed Jun 06, 2018 12:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: What If Your Plan Fails?
Replies: 49
Views: 5322

Re: Larry Swedroe: What If Your Plan Fails?

http://www.etf.com/sections/index-investor-corner/swedroe-what-if-your-plan-fails?nopaging=1 I think plan failure is an especially significant issue currently for those closing in on retirement or in early retirement. Murphy’s Law Of Retirement comes into play here. There have been outstanding stoc...
by IlliniDave
Wed Jun 06, 2018 11:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: WSJ:Social Security Expected to Dip Into Its Reserves This Year
Replies: 61
Views: 3552

Re: Social Security crossover point has arrived

How are you dealing with this news (even if it's old hat to you)? For several years I've been planning on receiving 75% of the stated benefit. That doesn't cover every contingency, but that's about what I'd heard they'd be able to maintain once the trust fund depletes. Otherwise I chop wood and car...
by IlliniDave
Tue Jun 05, 2018 3:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Don’t cheat yourself with the 4% rule
Replies: 184
Views: 26270

Re: Don’t cheat yourself with the 4% rule

Yep, the way the writer describes it , with her 4% rule it would be almost impossible to run out of money barring some sort of economic catastrophe. It's actually not a bad approach for someone with an amount of flexibility in her/his spending. I've approached it the other way around: looked at what...
by IlliniDave
Sat Jun 02, 2018 12:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A correction IS/WAS expanding...?
Replies: 8
Views: 1607

Re: A correction IS/WAS expanding...?

Johnsson wrote:
Sat Jun 02, 2018 11:27 am

I feel I'm all wrong? A correction is simply based on a price drop without regard to earnings?
Usually "correction" refers to a rather sudden price drop, but you are correct that growth in earnings with flat or slower-growing prices will also cause P/E to fall.
by IlliniDave
Wed May 30, 2018 3:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is inflation the greatest risk to retirement portfolios?
Replies: 100
Views: 8944

Re: Is inflation the greatest risk to retirement portfolios?

Inflation isn't a bogeyman that keeps me up at night. I think as a group here we have very large portfolios compared to our demographic cohorts. I know I do and mine is smallish by boglehead standards. I assume by risk to a portfolio we really mean risk to desired retirement spending levels. As has ...
by IlliniDave
Fri May 25, 2018 7:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fear vs. reality. Don't worry. Be happy. [Outliving your retirement savings]
Replies: 41
Views: 4957

Re: Fear vs. reality. Don't worry. Be happy. [Outliving your retirement savings]

The reality of my fear is there will never come a day when some financial article won't contain the word "myth". One would think with all of the supposed "myths" being "debunked" in some new financial post/article almost daily no "myths" would remain to be "debunked". The argument used to debunk th...
by IlliniDave
Fri May 25, 2018 3:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If the US market cap was 5% instead of 52%, would the US vs International conversation change?
Replies: 40
Views: 3313

Re: If the US market cap was 5% instead of 52%, would the US vs International conversation change?

Regarding the the subject question, yes the conversation would change. And if we had a state-run economy like China we might not be having the discussion at all. Any number of hypothetical alternate realities could change things. What I find fascinating is the persistence of this particular discussi...
by IlliniDave
Tue May 22, 2018 5:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Millionaire Next Door and civil servants
Replies: 99
Views: 15179

Re: The Millionaire Next Door and civil servants

Stanley did point out that teachers were among the more prodigious accumulators of wealth in his study, many of whom are essentially public employees. One can google the net worth statistics of congress members to see that few of them are UAWs. The richest counties in the US are disproportionately c...
by IlliniDave
Mon May 21, 2018 3:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Edelman & Financial Engines merging
Replies: 36
Views: 4527

Re: Edelman & Financial Engines merging

I've resisted Financial Engines. Somehow or another they have become associated with my 401K, I guess my employer negotiated a discount rate to provide advising service to 401k participants. Since my employer seems very committed to providing a low cost plan, it will be interesting to see what happe...
by IlliniDave
Sun May 20, 2018 3:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Three-fund portfolio returns and variance drain
Replies: 106
Views: 10392

Re: Three-fund portfolio returns and variance drain

IlliniDave, I’m no math whiz, but I disagree. The issue is not just looking at past returns as you wrote above. The issue is building efficient portfolios for the future. Looking forward, each potential portfolio addition has an expected return, a simple mean with a potential dispersion of outcomes...
by IlliniDave
Sun May 20, 2018 10:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Three-fund portfolio returns and variance drain
Replies: 106
Views: 10392

Re: Three-fund portfolio returns and variance drain

To me it's just a quirk of the math. If I have $100 and lose half in one year (-50% return) then gain it back the next year (+100% return) my cumulative return is zero. That if I sum the two individual returns and divide by two I get 25% doesn't mean I somehow lost 25% due to "volatility drag". Like...
by IlliniDave
Sun May 20, 2018 9:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Has Firecalc or I-ORP altered your retirement plans?
Replies: 35
Views: 4307

Re: Has Firecalc or I-ORP altered your retirement plans?

For me such tools, both homespun and online, have been part of the process from the beginning when I first transitioned from retirement/FI being a vague future notion to a specific plan. It's hard to point out individual influences because they were part of everything.
by IlliniDave
Fri May 18, 2018 3:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do so many people quote "You will likely be in a lower tax bracket in retirement"
Replies: 550
Views: 39283

Re: Why do so many people quote "You will likely be in a lower tax bracket in retirement"

I just saw another comment where someone was touting the benefits of a pretax 401k vs a Roth where they said most people will be in a lower tax bracket in retirement so pretax is better. While that is a pair of factually correct statements. Most people will be in a lower bracket. And if you are in ...
by IlliniDave
Thu May 17, 2018 6:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are you including annual increases in contributions in your projections?
Replies: 36
Views: 2026

Re: Are you including annual increases in contributions in your projections?

I made myself an excel spreadsheet to allow total flexibility. I pretty much do the same thing for the same reason. My "calculator" is very closely tailored to my situation, both in accumulation and (soon) retirement phasing in SS and pension at appropriate junctures, and a non-uniform withdrawal p...