Search found 3222 matches

by Ged
Fri Oct 20, 2017 2:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is a crash coming soon?
Replies: 60
Views: 4314

Re: Is a crash coming soon?

Houe wrote:
Fri Oct 20, 2017 1:23 pm
What if the market is never this low/cheap again? There are lots of price levels the market has passed and will never see again.
It's the 2009 prices I don't expect to see again.
by Ged
Fri Oct 20, 2017 1:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is a crash coming soon?
Replies: 60
Views: 4314

Re: Is a crash coming soon?

Sandtrap wrote:
Fri Oct 20, 2017 10:21 am
How much of a decline is a "significant" decline?
Thanks.
j
This is what the NBER says:

http://www.nber.org/cycles/jan08bcdc_memo.pdf

It seems to me that they are looking for places where the slope changes sign, rather than peak to trough distances.
by Ged
Fri Oct 20, 2017 10:03 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Best smartphone
Replies: 35
Views: 1994

Re: Best smartphone

an_asker wrote:
Fri Oct 20, 2017 10:00 am
Ged wrote:
Fri Oct 20, 2017 9:34 am
[...]
I'm not kidding - when I glanced at your number of posts, I read 32GB ;-)
I probably would have thought the same thing!
by Ged
Fri Oct 20, 2017 9:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is a crash coming soon?
Replies: 60
Views: 4314

Re: Is a crash coming soon?

Secondly, the longest period in US history without a big recession is 10 years. But in the 80s and 90s we saw a 18 year bull market. The unscientific part of your post rings true. There will always be bulls and bears talking about the market. Point of order, in 1987 on this day we had a slight dip ...
by Ged
Fri Oct 20, 2017 9:34 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Best smartphone
Replies: 35
Views: 1994

Re: Best smartphone

So far, best for me has been Nexus 6p. Extremely reliable (I didn't experience that boot loop issue, knock on wood, as others have), decent battery life (at 1.5 years), fast, nice screen, no bloatware. Especially love the immediate Android updates direct from Google. And having an unlocked phone. R...
by Ged
Thu Oct 19, 2017 9:54 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Amazon Prime - Decline in Delivery Service?
Replies: 54
Views: 4082

Re: Amazon Prime - Decline in Delivery Service?

Prime subscriber, Central NJ Actually things have improved over the past year or so. There was a period when there was a decline in service when Amazon switched over to USPS from UPS, however the USPS at least in my area seems to have gotten it's ducks in a row in the past year or so and I get relia...
by Ged
Wed Oct 18, 2017 4:39 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Anyone planning on getting the new Pixel phone?
Replies: 55
Views: 2511

Re: Anyone planning on getting the new Pixel phone?

MathWizard wrote:
Wed Oct 18, 2017 1:23 pm
My Nexus 5x is good enough, no need to pay for a Pixel.
That's my conclusion. Still getting updates for my 5x, so I'll be waiting this cycle out. Pixel 3 or bust!
by Ged
Tue Oct 17, 2017 7:03 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Experience with "mini-monovision" cataract implants?
Replies: 16
Views: 988

Re: Experience with "mini-monovision" cataract implants?

CULater wrote:
Tue Oct 17, 2017 6:18 pm

So you are OK with night vision / driving?
Yes, my night vision is fine, as is my driving.
by Ged
Tue Oct 17, 2017 6:07 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How many miles/years do you keep your car?
Replies: 102
Views: 6076

Re: How many miles/years do you keep your car?

Since the year 1990 I have bought cars new and the family operates them for about 20 years. Occasionally late in life there will some sort of catastrophic failure of the car like a timing belt that ends the life of the car. On average the family doesn't drive a lot so these cars are generally around...
by Ged
Tue Oct 17, 2017 5:57 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Experience with "mini-monovision" cataract implants?
Replies: 16
Views: 988

Re: Experience with "mini-monovision" cataract implants?

I have monovision cataract implants. They work very well for me. One thing though is that my natural eyesight was also a form of monovision! One eye was significantly worse at distance than the other, so one could say that I was born with monovision and this perhaps is why I adjusted to these implan...
by Ged
Tue Oct 17, 2017 12:40 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Why not switch from Medigap F to G now?
Replies: 19
Views: 1605

Re: Why not switch from Medigap F to G now?

I have read of the changes coming to Medigap F. It seems the possible loss of younger Medicare beneficiaries enrolling in these plans has raised concerns that rates could rise as the pool of existing policy holders becomes older, sicker and more expensive to insure. It depends on how the insurance ...
by Ged
Tue Oct 17, 2017 11:21 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Best way to make some dollars on a 10 day vacation?
Replies: 57
Views: 4872

Re: Best way to make some dollars on a 10 day vacation?

barnaclebob wrote:
Tue Oct 17, 2017 11:15 am
sign up for medical or psych experiments?
I hear Professor Venkman at Columbia is always looking for subjects.
by Ged
Mon Oct 16, 2017 6:18 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Storing Lawn Tractor over the Winter
Replies: 35
Views: 1705

Re: Storing Lawn Tractor over the Winter

I put stabilizer in all the fuel that I use in my small engines. The problems ethanol causes are not a winter only thing. For storage of my lawn tractor over winter I charge the battery and make sure the air pressure in the tires is good. I installed a shutoff valve in my gas line which I close and ...
by Ged
Sat Oct 14, 2017 11:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: First time investing - Invest now or wait?
Replies: 14
Views: 1026

Re: First time investing - Invest now or wait?

You are 31 years old. You are investing for 30+ years. That is not much different than when I started investing at age 28, in 1978. The S&P index at the time was 100 plus or minus. The TWENTY FOLD increase over the time I held those investments dwarfs by far any short term market fluctuations that I...
by Ged
Wed Oct 11, 2017 12:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 100% in bond to wait for market crash?
Replies: 122
Views: 11701

Re: 100% in bond to wait for market crash?

hi Ged, thanks for the advise. Do you mind to tell us what made you sold out in 2007? that sounds like a very smart move. was it due to the housing market weakening? In early 2007 when I sold the the housing market was not bad but had started going soft. The problem was that loans had started going...
by Ged
Tue Oct 10, 2017 1:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 100% in bond to wait for market crash?
Replies: 122
Views: 11701

Re: 100% in bond to wait for market crash?

The problem with the market timing approach is that you have to be right TWICE. So you sell out now and two years from now the market, after going up 7% per year has a typical recession drop of 25%. Do you buy back in then or wait for another 25% drop? What if it then bounces up 10% after the 25% dr...
by Ged
Mon Oct 09, 2017 12:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is inflation so low? Moore's law?
Replies: 27
Views: 3486

Re: Why is inflation so low? Moore's law?

Moore's law is dead. https://www.technologyreview.com/s/601441/moores-law-is-dead-now-what/ The long term role of capital investments and advancing technologies increasing productivity is the main factor. Automation technologies are a having a big impact here. AI developments will fuel this area for...
by Ged
Mon Oct 09, 2017 12:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: And the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences goes to [Richard Thaler]
Replies: 80
Views: 6509

Richard Thaler, Nobel Prize for work in behavioral economics

Glad to see Richard Thaler winning this year's Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel. The field of behavioral economics is extremely important to individual investors. For me becoming aware of these ideas had a huge positive effect in my personal approach towards man...
by Ged
Sat Oct 07, 2017 5:06 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Should I keep my Stocks?
Replies: 42
Views: 3618

Re: Should I keep my Stocks?

Sell them. Do it over time if you have a lot of cap gains to minimize taxation.
by Ged
Fri Oct 06, 2017 1:10 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Paper checks, how safe are they?
Replies: 31
Views: 1862

Re: Paper checks, how safe are they?

Yankuba wrote:
Fri Oct 06, 2017 1:01 pm
I never used my debit card (other than the ATM) either. Not sure why anyone would use one over a credit card.
The main logic I've heard is that some people have a severe allergy to debt of any kind.
by Ged
Thu Oct 05, 2017 7:59 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Reasonable hourly rate for a cfp?
Replies: 14
Views: 1067

Re: Reasonable hourly rate for a cfp?

That said, if you hold enough assets at Fidelity, you can utilize the services of a "financial consultant" (not advisor) for a couple hours a year at my price point. That's ok if you ignore the sales pitch to invest all of your money in their high fee accounts. I'm over five years into this and I'v...
by Ged
Wed Oct 04, 2017 7:11 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Reasonable hourly rate for a cfp?
Replies: 14
Views: 1067

Re: Reasonable hourly rate for a cfp?

FIREchief wrote:
Wed Oct 04, 2017 6:44 pm
That said, if you hold enough assets at Fidelity, you can utilize the services of a "financial consultant" (not advisor) for a couple hours a year at my price point.
That's ok if you ignore the sales pitch to invest all of your money in their high fee accounts.
by Ged
Wed Oct 04, 2017 7:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 2M savings investment help
Replies: 37
Views: 4961

Re: 2M savings investment help

Sounds like you have over complicated things. No need for capitalization sectors and all that. Just a total market fund. For bonds just a total market fund. International total market about 20% of the US allocation. Classic 3 fund per this: https://www.bogleheads.org/blog/the-three-fund-portfolio/ I...
by Ged
Tue Oct 03, 2017 10:03 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Would you take a pay cut to work from home?
Replies: 67
Views: 5294

Re: Would you take a pay cut to work from home?

I think the big downside to working at home is the issue of establishing a network. If I was established in a workplace and had a good network then I'd do it. If I was early career, taking a new job I'd think twice. Having a good network is crucial. Over the course of my career there was only one in...
by Ged
Mon Oct 02, 2017 7:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Are credit cards rewards worth it?
Replies: 103
Views: 6035

Re: Are credit cards rewards worth it?

I charge everything on my credit card for the 2% cash back (citi double cash). I also like seeing how much I spent each month. I PAY MY BALANCE IN FULL EVERY MONTH. But I hate seeing that I owe. Id rather use my debt card. Is the 2% cash back worth it. Do you use debt or credit and if credit what r...
by Ged
Mon Oct 02, 2017 7:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Current Bull Market could last years
Replies: 89
Views: 9724

Re: Current Bull Market could last years

Sounds like the first pebble of irrational exuberance dropping.

It may last for years, but it will end.
by Ged
Fri Sep 29, 2017 7:09 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Luggage locks
Replies: 15
Views: 1060

Re: Luggage locks

I've tried using TSA approved locks on my luggage twice. Both times the TSA cut the locks off anyway. I got the message - they can't be bothered and I was wasting my money.
by Ged
Fri Sep 29, 2017 4:56 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Email address compromised - HELP!!!
Replies: 28
Views: 2426

Re: Email address compromised - HELP!!!

Since you have your own domain I'd say it is likely that spammers just got your domain name from public records and are flooding the domain with any and every sort of nonsense they can concoct. I have a couple of personal domains myself and observe the same volumes of mail you are observing. Changin...
by Ged
Wed Sep 27, 2017 12:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: I'm shocked! [Mother 100% in bonds and annuities]
Replies: 67
Views: 6369

Re: I'm shocked!

AAA...Exactly, she had a very rough time during the Great Depression. I can't thank everyone enough! I didn't mention my dad because he has dementia (89 yo). Mom and I redid her will last year, everything goes to my brother and I, 50/50. Our names are on all accts. I think it's great that you are b...
by Ged
Tue Sep 26, 2017 7:55 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: High end cruising suggestions.
Replies: 26
Views: 2764

Re: High end cruising suggestions.

I've been on both Viking river and ocean cruises. It's clear the demographic they are shooting for is the 50+ folks who are interested in extensive shore itineraries and sightseeing. On-board entertainment isn't their focus. I certainly would not say that 75-80 year olds made up the bulk of the clie...
by Ged
Tue Sep 26, 2017 9:14 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What to do With Cash After Sale of House
Replies: 10
Views: 1283

Re: What to do With Cash After Sale of House

Efforts to outperform the S&P 500 are most likely to succeed if they are based on techniques like adding to the portfolio or overweighting in segments like small cap value, international and REITS. There has been a lot of discussion of this so-called factor based investing approach here. Market timi...
by Ged
Mon Sep 25, 2017 10:27 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Good Modern Science Fiction
Replies: 255
Views: 30938

Re: Good Modern Science Fiction

Left Hand of Darkness Ursula LeGuin Snowcrash Neal Stephenson Neuromancer William Gibson Ringworld Larry Niven The Forever War Joe Haldeman Startide Rising David Brin Edit: added authors I thought OP said modern. Some of these are 40 years old. Any modern stuff, like the last 5 years? The OP didn't...
by Ged
Sun Sep 24, 2017 10:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retirees, what is your marginal tax rate?
Replies: 102
Views: 10262

Re: Retirees, what is your marginal tax rate?

67, retired at 63. Wife is 72. 25% Federal, last year 0% State. Converting to ROTH to top of 15% bracket and a little bit more just to be sure to capture all of it and delaying my SS. Spouse is obviously taking hers. Biggest tax burden is real estate. Once I hit 70 and start taking SS I'm not sure w...
by Ged
Sun Sep 24, 2017 9:45 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Spouse Money Management
Replies: 94
Views: 6153

Re: Spouse Money Management

This is why it's important to save via an automatic payroll deduction system. Once you do that the remainder is available for spending by both of you and you can divide it according to some agreement, ideally a budget. The other observation is that any attitude on your part to classify your spouse a...
by Ged
Fri Sep 22, 2017 7:06 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Luxury Car Purchase
Replies: 47
Views: 3654

Re: Luxury Car Purchase

It depends on how much of your net worth is in your primary residence and what the tax impact is going to be on pulling $120K out of your investments. If your primary residence is more than $1 million I'd say $120,000 for a car is probably too much. And yes watch out for your financial adviser. He i...
by Ged
Mon Sep 18, 2017 6:48 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: annualcreditreport.com possible vulnerability (apache struts framework)
Replies: 21
Views: 2029

Re: annualcreditreport.com possible vulnerability (apache struts framework)

Thumbprints on loan applications would help eliminate credit fraud, but if the prints are encrypted and stored at the credit bureaus the bad guys will eventually figure it out. Plan on giving a DNA sample in another 10 or 20 years. Dale We can do a lot better than that. For example if we were using...
by Ged
Sun Sep 17, 2017 7:46 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Account security - Hackers gain access to mobile and then break havoc
Replies: 157
Views: 11273

Re: Account security - Hackers gain access to mobile and then break havoc

Hmm. I run my own domain and have a private email server in my home. So in order for the hacker to gain control of my email accounts he would have to gain control of my account at the domain registrar or root my Linux server. I'll have to investigate how to maximize security on my registrar account....
by Ged
Sun Sep 17, 2017 7:08 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Estate planning advice for young parents in Massachusetts
Replies: 33
Views: 2696

Re: Estate planning advice for young parents in Massachusetts

bsteiner wrote:
Thu Sep 14, 2017 11:56 am
However, Massachusetts enacted the Uniform Probate Code about 5 years ago, which greatly simplified the probate process
\I served as executor of my father's estate in Massachusetts in 2009. :oops:
by Ged
Sun Sep 17, 2017 2:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Goldman's Bear Market Indicator Shows Crash Dead Ahead"
Replies: 33
Views: 4987

Re: "Goldman's Bear Market Indicator Shows Crash Dead Ahead"

Zero Hedge has accurately predicted 200 of the last 2 crashes.

Citation: https://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Zero_Hedge
by Ged
Sun Sep 17, 2017 11:55 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: annualcreditreport.com possible vulnerability (apache struts framework)
Replies: 21
Views: 2029

Re: annualcreditreport.com possible vulnerability (apache struts framework)

For reference the actual bug was Apache Struts CVE-2017-5638. It's horrific. It allows remote execution of arbitrary code. That's only the tip of the iceberg though. There has to have been a multitude of bad decisions that allowed the exposure of this information to the web application in the first ...
by Ged
Sat Sep 16, 2017 9:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What is the largest percentage of your total portfolio value that you have exchanged to rebalance?
Replies: 58
Views: 3748

Re: What is the largest percentage of your total portfolio value that you have exchanged to rebalance?

I went from 60/40 to 40/60 the day I decided to retire about 3 years earlier than originally planned due to changes at my employer that left me reporting directly to the company owner. Otherwise my rebalancing has been infrequent and minor because I've been using contributions or expenditures to bal...
by Ged
Sat Sep 16, 2017 1:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shiller PE over 30
Replies: 17
Views: 1453

Re: Shiller PE over 30

Perhaps one of the best pieces of advice I've run across is from Ed Thorpe, who said this: “Sell down to the sleeping point. As far as asset classes go, it is hard to know when you are in a bubble, and if you are in one, when it will pop.” I think we are in a bubble especially when you consider the...
by Ged
Fri Sep 15, 2017 8:18 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Large portable generator vs. permanent natural gas generator for home
Replies: 67
Views: 4193

Re: Large portable generator vs. permanent natural gas generator for home

5 years ago lots of people around my parts spent upwards of 10K for a whole house generator due to Sandy. Others spent close to a few grand on portables. Lets just say that they havent gotten their moneys worth as they havent had to use them even once . For me it wasnt worth it now, then or in the ...
by Ged
Wed Sep 13, 2017 9:50 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Someone set up PayPal account using my email...
Replies: 35
Views: 2701

Re: Someone set up PayPal account using my email...

You might want to try bouncing the email back to PayPal. They might detect non-delivery and alert the account owner when they log in.

https://www.raymond.cc/blog/bounce-emai ... fications/
by Ged
Sun Sep 10, 2017 8:48 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: REIT vs Bonds as a hedge against Stocks
Replies: 11
Views: 1311

Re: REIT vs Bonds as a hedge against Stocks

REITs are more volatile than stocks, plus they are highly correlated. Exactly NOT what you want as an alternative to bonds. https://vanguardretailblog.files.wordpress.com/2013/01/reits-chart-11.jpg?w=520&h=369 I think an interesting strategy is to increase your allocation to REITs when in a recessio...
by Ged
Sat Sep 09, 2017 10:59 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Luxury car: perception vs reality
Replies: 118
Views: 6469

Re: Luxury car: perception vs reality

I have a >$2M net worth counting everything and just before retiring household income of about $150K. ONCE I bought a car for about $40K. All the other cars were $25K and less. It isn't a matter of whether or not I like nice cars or not. I do. It's just that I'd rather retire earlier than have a sli...
by Ged
Tue Sep 05, 2017 10:04 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Brokerage missing $ again
Replies: 19
Views: 3072

Re: Vanguard Brokerage missing $ again

I've always been happy with keeping my Vanguard ETFs at Fidelity.

Between my father and myself we've had accounts at Fidelity for 50 years. No problems of this sort.
by Ged
Sun Sep 03, 2017 9:49 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Best Fund for Parents Expenses
Replies: 10
Views: 976

Re: Best Fund for Parents Expenses

How many years of expenses are in these funds? Of course at this age a 60% allocation to equities is a bit high. Drawing from these funds will reduce that allocation. But if there are plenty of other assets it doesn't matter. The advantage of not drawing from the equity funds is the gross up that oc...
by Ged
Fri Sep 01, 2017 10:08 am
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: [Are the Bogleheads] getting less interesting?
Replies: 255
Views: 17011

Re: [Are the Bogleheads] getting less interesting?

I am posting this to see if others feel that way, and if so, what could be done....? I don't think it's less interesting, rather that you've extracted the information you need and integrated it into your life. After that the need to spend a lot of time on this site decreases. The impact of having s...
by Ged
Fri Sep 01, 2017 9:17 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Discover card inquiry about income and liquid assets
Replies: 50
Views: 3730

Re: Discover card inquiry about income and liquid assets

I'm retired with delayed SS so my actual income is low at the moment. So I list what I'm spending instead.