Search found 402 matches

by Jonathan
Mon Mar 05, 2018 2:14 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Another reason to steer clear of Bitcoin. As if we need another reason...
Replies: 47
Views: 6589

Re: Another reason to steer clear of Bitcoin. As if we need another reason...

I think the point the article and OP is trying to make is the complete anonymity involved with a Bitcoin transfer. Yes, a thief in a ski mask can hold me at gun point and demand I open my safe and hand over $1m in cash. The problem is is that stolen cash typically needs laundered. You can't deposit...
by Jonathan
Mon Mar 05, 2018 1:25 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Another reason to steer clear of Bitcoin. As if we need another reason...
Replies: 47
Views: 6589

Re: Another reason to steer clear of Bitcoin. As if we need another reason...

My guess is you largely don't understand 'crypto-currencies', so I will work off that assumption. Agreed; I don't think OP is knowledgeable about cryptos. These thefts are no different than the thefts of value that have occurred over thousands of years in human civilization. When thieves, kidnapper...
by Jonathan
Tue Feb 20, 2018 11:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buying and Spending Bitcoin
Replies: 199
Views: 28894

Re: Buying and Spending Bitcoin

Is a spouse who secretly buys (or claims to have lost) bitcoins all that different from one who secretly buys (or claims to have lost) jewelry? Agreed, very similar, although you get less traceability and more anonymity with bitcoin. And of course the border crossing ease. BTW, Crypto Voices had a ...
by Jonathan
Mon Feb 19, 2018 1:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buying and Spending Bitcoin
Replies: 199
Views: 28894

Re: Buying and Spending Bitcoin

I don't see how that makes the exchange shady. You're allowed to not see that, but I offered multiple reasons to substantiate my position that exchanges can be shady. In this case, "Ripe target for fraud" is enough to raise caution, even if a particular exchange is 100% aboveboard. Source: 5+ years...
by Jonathan
Mon Feb 19, 2018 12:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buying and Spending Bitcoin
Replies: 199
Views: 28894

Re: Buying and Spending Bitcoin

Some are, but that's a pretty broad brush. Yes, that's pretty broad, but I still agree with it. Some of the shadiness is the outright fault of the exchange, some of it is associated with the anonymous nature of crypto, some with the lack of regulation, and some is just the attraction of spoofing op...
by Jonathan
Mon Feb 19, 2018 12:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buying and Spending Bitcoin
Replies: 199
Views: 28894

Re: Buying and Spending Bitcoin

Much as I enjoy a good forum fracas, both positions are correct: 1. Exchanges are shady. 2. This specific problem with the Coinbase exchange may indeed have been reasonably attributable to Visa's error. This is an important reminder to review your credit card purchases carefully; I've caught credit ...
by Jonathan
Sat Feb 17, 2018 5:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buying and Spending Bitcoin
Replies: 199
Views: 28894

Re: Buying and Spending Bitcoin

It isn't practical to perform full-scale audits on everyone. Perhaps the IRS will ignore the little guys and only go after those with millions. Another approach fully explored in the article is increasing reporting requirements. Requiring only US financial institutions to report bitcoin transaction...
by Jonathan
Sat Feb 17, 2018 2:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buying and Spending Bitcoin
Replies: 199
Views: 28894

Re: Buying and Spending Bitcoin

The article doesn't mention trust, and in the comments the author says you don't have to trust the hubs. That is, you don't need to trust them not to steal your money. The problem instead is that hubs could block transactions. Note also that the article isn't against cryptocurrency in general but r...
by Jonathan
Fri Feb 16, 2018 7:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buying and Spending Bitcoin
Replies: 199
Views: 28894

Re: Buying and Spending Bitcoin

I appreciate your response nisiprius. We all post assertions without evidence. Sometimes we do it in poor form, but sometimes we do it because it's a perfectly acceptable practice in casual online discussions. List or not, you are correct that few merchants accept crypto as payment. You don't need t...
by Jonathan
Fri Feb 16, 2018 6:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buying and Spending Bitcoin
Replies: 199
Views: 28894

Re: Buying and Spending Bitcoin

I also find it interesting how Jonathan calls these coins an "Asset Class." Although the coins have value I think they are an asset class similar to other collectibles such as art, classic cars, or baseball cards. I find this interesting too! I picked it up from watching some of the newer SEC and C...
by Jonathan
Fri Feb 16, 2018 5:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buying and Spending Bitcoin
Replies: 199
Views: 28894

Re: Buying and Spending Bitcoin

I disagree Valuethinker. nisiprius has made false assertions, without posting any evidence. I'm not certain why you have chosen to criticize me for debunking those assertions, and not him for initially posting them. My responses were polite, and requested that nisiprius please perform either a basic...
by Jonathan
Fri Feb 16, 2018 12:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buying and Spending Bitcoin
Replies: 199
Views: 28894

Re: Buying and Spending Bitcoin

What little real-world exposure to cryptocurrencies there has been in the form of Bitcoin "ATMs" has been to Bitcoin. They don't AFAIK dispense Ether or Dogecoin. FALSE . Please perform a simple Google search on this topic. Lightning Network is as centralized and trust-based as PayPal. FALSE . Plea...
by Jonathan
Thu Feb 15, 2018 4:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buying and Spending Bitcoin
Replies: 199
Views: 28894

Re: Buying and Spending Bitcoin

What about bitcoin as a payment system? You may be interested in the new Lightning Network, which allows for rapid bitcoin payments. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lightning_Network https://motherboard.vice.com/en_us/article/gyw9aq/wtf-is-the-lightning-network-and-will-it-save-bitcoin https://coince...
by Jonathan
Thu Feb 15, 2018 2:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buying and Spending Bitcoin
Replies: 199
Views: 28894

Re: Buying and Spending Bitcoin

Here is a cool visualization: Bitcoin Cash vs. Bitcoin Core Live Transaction Visualizer This is very clever. Be mindful of the "Bitcoin Core" phrasing. It's often an indicator of what some people believe is an attempt to usurp the bitcoin brand in favor of bitcoin cash. Note also Bitcoin Cash's adm...
by Jonathan
Thu Feb 15, 2018 1:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wisdom of Bitcoin
Replies: 90
Views: 7610

Re: Wisdom of Bitcoin

Bitcoin is already literally illegal in ten countries. . FALSE . When I read that article, I see that Bitcoin is illegal in 8 countries, not 10: Algeria, Morocco, Bolivia, Ecuador, Kyrgyzstan, Bangladesh, Nepal, Cambodia. Bitcoin is legal in over 95% of countries. Border law enforcement probably ha...
by Jonathan
Thu Dec 07, 2017 6:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Bitcoin & It’s Risks
Replies: 57
Views: 5672

Re: Larry Swedroe: Bitcoin & It’s Risks

Casting bitcoin as zero-sum generally relies upon another assumption: that bitcoin itself has no inherent value. Of course we must ask: Is gold a zero-sum game? And, don't forget that store of value is itself a value. How about a brief respite for a shared belief? Here's a crypto asset that I do bel...
by Jonathan
Thu Dec 07, 2017 5:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When Bitcoin blows-up
Replies: 55
Views: 5172

Re: When Bitcoin blows-up

Don't forget that the bitcoin "bubble" has already popped multiple times before. Yet here we are. If historic bitcoin drop cycles will be repeated (no idea if they will), we can expect a 50%-80% drop, followed by another rise above the current all time high. A good place to track all of the times th...
by Jonathan
Thu Dec 07, 2017 4:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Bitcoin & It’s Risks
Replies: 57
Views: 5672

Re: Larry Swedroe: Bitcoin & It’s Risks

Jonathan: You're either misconstruing or misusing "zero sum game". Bitcoin is most definitely zero sum - Any dollar you take out has to come from somebody putting a dollar in. "Is bitcoin a zero sum game" is a common topic of discussion in bitcoin forums. I'm neither misconstruing nor misusing the ...
by Jonathan
Thu Dec 07, 2017 2:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When Bitcoin blows-up
Replies: 55
Views: 5172

Re: When Bitcoin blows-up

Nate79 wrote:
Thu Dec 07, 2017 2:02 pm
Now if you want to buy tulips with bitcoin, that would be a challenge.
BloomNation.com, BitRoses.com.
by Jonathan
Thu Dec 07, 2017 12:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When Bitcoin blows-up
Replies: 55
Views: 5172

Re: When Bitcoin blows-up

I'm close to a total bitcoin skeptic, but I think that it is a very bad mental habit to use language like "when bitcoin blows up." We don't know that it will. And even if it does, we don't know when, or how much more it will grow before it does. I realize that "when" is just shorthand, but if your ...
by Jonathan
Thu Dec 07, 2017 2:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Bitcoin & It’s Risks
Replies: 57
Views: 5672

Re: Larry Swedroe: Bitcoin & It’s Risks

Now if you take bitcoin or commodities or currencies, what will the average person in these markets make on profits? Zero (after inflation and over the long term). Because it is a zero sum game. You are assuming that bitcoin is a zero sum game. Bitcoin certainly hasn't been a zero sum game so far. ...
by Jonathan
Wed Dec 06, 2017 12:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Bitcoin & It’s Risks
Replies: 57
Views: 5672

Re: Larry Swedroe: Bitcoin & It’s Risks

Thus gold is not an investment? Interestingly, your position mirrors Jack Bogle's recent comments on bitcoin, at the Council on Foreign Relations. 42-second video of his comments: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QgrNYSQve8o . Note how he mentions gold too, but he doesn't follow up as to whether or n...
by Jonathan
Wed Dec 06, 2017 12:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Bitcoin & It’s Risks
Replies: 57
Views: 5672

Re: Larry Swedroe: Bitcoin & It’s Risks

Never invest in anything you don't understand or can't explain to a 12 year-old. Following this simple rule will save you from a world of hurt. i get this logic but we should flip the mirror. bitcoin aside.... do you really understand every single company and product, its SWOT, and your personal pe...
by Jonathan
Wed Dec 06, 2017 11:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Bitcoin & It’s Risks
Replies: 57
Views: 5672

Re: Larry Swedroe: Bitcoin & It’s Risks

Be mindful of this false dichotomy: Is bitcoin a bubble, or a wise investment? It can be both. The "bubble" can pop, the asset value can plummet rapidly, and then it can slowly rebuild to higher than pre-bubble levels. Note this quote from Fred Wilson, famous venture capitalist and grad of both MIT ...
by Jonathan
Tue Dec 05, 2017 9:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Bitcoin & It’s Risks
Replies: 57
Views: 5672

Re: Larry Swedroe: Bitcoin & It’s Risks

To Swedroe's credit, the word "tulip" or "tulips" does not once appear in his article, despite his mentions of multiple historical asset bubbles.

I wonder if, like many others, he also acknowledges that Tulipmania is an exaggerated myth.
by Jonathan
Tue Dec 05, 2017 8:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Bitcoin & It’s Risks
Replies: 57
Views: 5672

Re: Larry Swedroe: Bitcoin & It’s Risks

Comes across as a faux-neutral but truly anti-bitcoin piece.

Swedroe twice pushes a "daily losses as high as 80%" bit. Does he mean this one flash crash?

Image
by Jonathan
Sun Dec 03, 2017 3:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: bitcoin - is there any real value here or is it a pure Ponzi scam?
Replies: 236
Views: 23543

Re: bitcoin - is there any real value here or is it a pure Ponzi scam?

quantAndHold wrote:
Sun Dec 03, 2017 3:30 pm
You do realize that the sample size of Bogleheads who are willing to hold short positions on *anything* is very small, right?
I think that's accurate. Still, for all the bitcoin bubble talk around here, we should be able to see a few shorters stand up.
by Jonathan
Sun Dec 03, 2017 1:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: bitcoin - is there any real value here or is it a pure Ponzi scam?
Replies: 236
Views: 23543

Re: bitcoin - is there any real value here or is it a pure Ponzi scam?

We know there are bitcoin shorts, and plenty of them. Shorts have been available for years, on many exchanges. I see them discussed frequently on crypto trading forums, and there are even Twitter accounts that use exchange APIs to tweet notable instances of margin calls (e.g. @bitmexrekt). There's a...
by Jonathan
Sun Dec 03, 2017 1:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: bitcoin - is there any real value here or is it a pure Ponzi scam?
Replies: 236
Views: 23543

Re: bitcoin - is there any real value here or is it a pure Ponzi scam?

Why not short bitcoin? Keynes... "The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent." Yeah, there's a bitcoin bubble. Bitcoin's value is destined to plummet. Sometime. But will that happen before or after I get wiped out by shorting it? I'm not an experienced bitcoin shorter, but ...
by Jonathan
Sun Dec 03, 2017 12:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Want to sell my Bitcoin, but when?
Replies: 90
Views: 9576

Re: Want to sell my Bitcoin, but when?

There isn't a great answer to these "When should I sell my bitcoin?" questions, or their sibling: "Is now a good time to buy bitcoin?" Per Boglehead philosophy: -Pre-determine your desired asset allocation into bitcoin, and rebalance regularly to maintain that same allocation. -Pre-answer specific q...
by Jonathan
Sun Dec 03, 2017 12:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: bitcoin - is there any real value here or is it a pure Ponzi scam?
Replies: 236
Views: 23543

Re: bitcoin - is there any real value here or is it a pure Ponzi scam?

AFAIK there's no easy way of shorting Bitcoin. You can short bitcoin on many exchanges. The most mainstream and best-insured of these is Coinbase's GDAX exchange. "You can't short bitcoin" seems to be a common trope these days. If believed, it provides a tidy solution to the question: "If one is ce...
by Jonathan
Sat Dec 02, 2017 2:48 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: The College Bubble - investment opportunities after the collapse?
Replies: 114
Views: 9086

Re: The College Bubble - investment opportunities after the collapse?

Watch for: -Improvements in telepresence technology. -Increase in credibility of testing/certification bodies not run by universities. Also monitor the decrease in credibility of once-hallowed universities, as they shift away from merit-driven admissions. For example, look at the Espenshade study; t...
by Jonathan
Sat Dec 02, 2017 1:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin - How it works for the layman
Replies: 30
Views: 3518

Re: Bitcoin - How it works for the layman

Bitcoin.com is not an advocate specifically for bitcoin. They're actually promoting another crypto called Bitcoin Cash. Look closer, this is a tricky hustle. The more credible source is Bitcoin.org. Bitcoin Cash's leadership is trying to push a "Bitcoin Cash is the real bitcoin" narrative. We've see...
by Jonathan
Sat Dec 02, 2017 1:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: bitcoin - is there any real value here or is it a pure Ponzi scam?
Replies: 236
Views: 23543

Re: bitcoin - is there any real value here or is it a pure Ponzi scam?

Why does gold have value? All mined gold is worth around $7 trillion. Gold has held significant value for thousands of years.

Sure, gold has some industrial value, but not that much. From a perspective of intrinsic value, steel is much more valuable.
by Jonathan
Thu Nov 30, 2017 4:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jack Bogle Says ‘Avoid Bitcoin Like the Plague’
Replies: 214
Views: 28089

Re: Jack Bogle Says ‘Avoid Bitcoin Like the Plague’

Still frantic trading at incredibly high prices is not good investing. That's perfectly reasonable. But if we want to be intellectually honest, it's probably best to just stop brandishing the tulip story to draw a point about financial volatility or bubbles, or to promote the concept of indexing. T...
by Jonathan
Thu Nov 30, 2017 4:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jack Bogle Says ‘Avoid Bitcoin Like the Plague’
Replies: 214
Views: 28089

Re: Jack Bogle Says ‘Avoid Bitcoin Like the Plague’

Sure, it's not completely fabricated like the story of The Tooth Fairy.

It was "a small crisis" that was grossly distorted and exaggerated, and most of what we've heard about it is not true.
by Jonathan
Thu Nov 30, 2017 3:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jack Bogle Says ‘Avoid Bitcoin Like the Plague’
Replies: 214
Views: 28089

Re: Jack Bogle Says ‘Avoid Bitcoin Like the Plague’

The modern view is that tulip mania is an overexaggerated myth. From SmithsonianMag.com: There Never Was a Real Tulip Fever . From the Wikipedia article: https://i.imgur.com/CX0pmSC.png FYI the Goldgar quoted in Wikipedia is Anne Goldgar, who wrote Tulipmania: Money, Honor, and Knowledge in the Dutc...
by Jonathan
Wed Nov 29, 2017 12:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tracking the Bitcoin Bubble in Real Time?
Replies: 70
Views: 5956

Re: Tracking the Bitcoin Bubble in Real Time?

An interesting issue is the amount of addresses that are not spendable. Since transactions are the same cost regardless of size and not a percentage of the size, there is an immense amount of Bitcoin tied up in addresses that cannot be consolidated because the transaction fees are more than the val...
by Jonathan
Wed Nov 29, 2017 11:09 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Didn't buy Bitcoin at $4600
Replies: 138
Views: 12870

Re: Didn't buy Bitcoin at $4600

An investment? By definition, an investment is something that will pay you a future cash flow. Either a dividend or stock buyback or an interest coupon. Bitcoin won't do any of those things, ever. That's not the definition of "investment" at all; that's your own personal definition. Here's a sample...
by Jonathan
Tue Nov 28, 2017 11:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tracking the Bitcoin Bubble in Real Time?
Replies: 70
Views: 5956

Re: Tracking the Bitcoin Bubble in Real Time?

I believe shorting on Coinbase's GDAX exchange might be among the most accessible and best-insured shorting methods now. On the bitcoin daytrading forums, people take combinations of different positions: long, short, leveraged, etc. Why don't the bitcoin bubble-predicting people short bitcoin? Is th...
by Jonathan
Tue Nov 28, 2017 10:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tracking the Bitcoin Bubble in Real Time?
Replies: 70
Views: 5956

Re: Tracking the Bitcoin Bubble in Real Time?

1) Incorrect - bitcoin can currently be shorted, on a large well-insured exchange.
2) Correct - the price is determined on exchanges.
3) Correct - bitcoins are divisible to a hundred-millionth of a bitcoin. One hundred-millionth of a bitcoin is called a "satoshi".
by Jonathan
Tue Nov 28, 2017 7:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jack Bogle Says ‘Avoid Bitcoin Like the Plague’
Replies: 214
Views: 28089

Re: Jack Bogle Says ‘Avoid Bitcoin Like the Plague’

Does this mean that Vanguard will no longer offer bitcoin-backed stocks?

Image
by Jonathan
Tue Nov 28, 2017 5:47 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Dentist refusing to refer to specialist?
Replies: 19
Views: 3057

Re: Dentist refusing to refer to specialist?

What kind of specialist? Pediatric dentist? Special needs dentist? Specific measures are suggested for autistic dental patients: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Special_needs_dentistry#Clinical_Management_of_the_Special_Needs_patient_within_the_Dental_Clinic It's possible your pediatrician can do a re...
by Jonathan
Tue Nov 28, 2017 5:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tracking the Bitcoin Bubble in Real Time?
Replies: 70
Views: 5956

Re: Tracking the Bitcoin Bubble in Real Time?

Tulip mania is now known to be an overexaggerated myth: SmithsonianMag.com: There Never Was a Real Tulip Fever . +1... tired of the overused, incorrect tulip bulb references. :sharebeer Even the label "bubble" is a misnomer. Let's look at three top candidates for the bubble mania characterization: ...
by Jonathan
Tue Nov 28, 2017 4:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tracking the Bitcoin Bubble in Real Time?
Replies: 70
Views: 5956

Re: Tracking the Bitcoin Bubble in Real Time?

Tulip mania is now known to be an overexaggerated myth: SmithsonianMag.com: There Never Was a Real Tulip Fever . +1... tired of the overused, incorrect tulip bulb references. :sharebeer Even the label "bubble" is a misnomer. Let's look at three top candidates for the bubble mania characterization: ...
by Jonathan
Tue Nov 28, 2017 3:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tracking the Bitcoin Bubble in Real Time?
Replies: 70
Views: 5956

Re: Tracking the Bitcoin Bubble in Real Time?

If indeed bitcoin happens to match that "Main Stages in a Bubble" graph that we see so frequently making the rounds, then we would currently be in the "Awareness Phase". You'll note that that section of the chart is marked "Institutional Investors", who are just now getting into bitcoin. Per that gr...
by Jonathan
Tue Nov 28, 2017 10:00 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Didn't buy Bitcoin at $4600
Replies: 138
Views: 12870

Re: Didn't buy Bitcoin at $4600

Valuethinker - it's great that you're passionate about this subject, but I'm not sure that 5 posts in a row is appropriate. Consider giving others an equal opportunity to share their opinions on this topic.
by Jonathan
Mon Nov 27, 2017 1:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Interesting ride so far - Crypto-curriencies
Replies: 112
Views: 9902

Re: Interesting ride so far - Crypto-curriencies

There's somewhat of a semantic shift by which cryptocurrencies are increasingly referred to as "crypto assets". Many of them aren't currencies, and were never intended to be. We still see some anti-bitcoin sentiment presented by classifying bitcoin solely as a "currency", and then denigrating its va...
by Jonathan
Sun Nov 26, 2017 12:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Interesting ride so far - Crypto-curriencies
Replies: 112
Views: 9902

Re: Interesting ride so far - Crypto-curriencies

If you're certain that bitcoin is a bubble or a Ponzi, you can short it. Coinbase is a mainstream, well-insured exchange that you can use to purchase a short. Then, if the value of bitcoin plummets, you'll profit significantly. Have any bogleheads shorted bitcoin? You can not short Bitcoin on Coinb...