Search found 387 matches

by Jonathan
Thu Dec 07, 2017 6:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Bitcoin & It’s Risks
Replies: 57
Views: 4819

Re: Larry Swedroe: Bitcoin & It’s Risks

Casting bitcoin as zero-sum generally relies upon another assumption: that bitcoin itself has no inherent value. Of course we must ask: Is gold a zero-sum game? And, don't forget that store of value is itself a value. How about a brief respite for a shared belief? Here's a crypto asset that I do bel...
by Jonathan
Thu Dec 07, 2017 5:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When Bitcoin blows-up
Replies: 55
Views: 4207

Re: When Bitcoin blows-up

Don't forget that the bitcoin "bubble" has already popped multiple times before. Yet here we are. If historic bitcoin drop cycles will be repeated (no idea if they will), we can expect a 50%-80% drop, followed by another rise above the current all time high. A good place to track all of the times th...
by Jonathan
Thu Dec 07, 2017 4:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Bitcoin & It’s Risks
Replies: 57
Views: 4819

Re: Larry Swedroe: Bitcoin & It’s Risks

Jonathan: You're either misconstruing or misusing "zero sum game". Bitcoin is most definitely zero sum - Any dollar you take out has to come from somebody putting a dollar in. "Is bitcoin a zero sum game" is a common topic of discussion in bitcoin forums. I'm neither misconstruing nor misusing the ...
by Jonathan
Thu Dec 07, 2017 2:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When Bitcoin blows-up
Replies: 55
Views: 4207

Re: When Bitcoin blows-up

Nate79 wrote:
Thu Dec 07, 2017 2:02 pm
Now if you want to buy tulips with bitcoin, that would be a challenge.
BloomNation.com, BitRoses.com.
by Jonathan
Thu Dec 07, 2017 12:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When Bitcoin blows-up
Replies: 55
Views: 4207

Re: When Bitcoin blows-up

I'm close to a total bitcoin skeptic, but I think that it is a very bad mental habit to use language like "when bitcoin blows up." We don't know that it will. And even if it does, we don't know when, or how much more it will grow before it does. I realize that "when" is just shorthand, but if your ...
by Jonathan
Thu Dec 07, 2017 2:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Bitcoin & It’s Risks
Replies: 57
Views: 4819

Re: Larry Swedroe: Bitcoin & It’s Risks

Now if you take bitcoin or commodities or currencies, what will the average person in these markets make on profits? Zero (after inflation and over the long term). Because it is a zero sum game. You are assuming that bitcoin is a zero sum game. Bitcoin certainly hasn't been a zero sum game so far. ...
by Jonathan
Wed Dec 06, 2017 12:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Bitcoin & It’s Risks
Replies: 57
Views: 4819

Re: Larry Swedroe: Bitcoin & It’s Risks

Thus gold is not an investment? Interestingly, your position mirrors Jack Bogle's recent comments on bitcoin, at the Council on Foreign Relations. 42-second video of his comments: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QgrNYSQve8o . Note how he mentions gold too, but he doesn't follow up as to whether or n...
by Jonathan
Wed Dec 06, 2017 12:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Bitcoin & It’s Risks
Replies: 57
Views: 4819

Re: Larry Swedroe: Bitcoin & It’s Risks

Never invest in anything you don't understand or can't explain to a 12 year-old. Following this simple rule will save you from a world of hurt. i get this logic but we should flip the mirror. bitcoin aside.... do you really understand every single company and product, its SWOT, and your personal pe...
by Jonathan
Wed Dec 06, 2017 11:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Bitcoin & It’s Risks
Replies: 57
Views: 4819

Re: Larry Swedroe: Bitcoin & It’s Risks

Be mindful of this false dichotomy: Is bitcoin a bubble, or a wise investment? It can be both. The "bubble" can pop, the asset value can plummet rapidly, and then it can slowly rebuild to higher than pre-bubble levels. Note this quote from Fred Wilson, famous venture capitalist and grad of both MIT ...
by Jonathan
Tue Dec 05, 2017 9:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Bitcoin & It’s Risks
Replies: 57
Views: 4819

Re: Larry Swedroe: Bitcoin & It’s Risks

To Swedroe's credit, the word "tulip" or "tulips" does not once appear in his article, despite his mentions of multiple historical asset bubbles.

I wonder if, like many others, he also acknowledges that Tulipmania is an exaggerated myth.
by Jonathan
Tue Dec 05, 2017 8:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Bitcoin & It’s Risks
Replies: 57
Views: 4819

Re: Larry Swedroe: Bitcoin & It’s Risks

Comes across as a faux-neutral but truly anti-bitcoin piece.

Swedroe twice pushes a "daily losses as high as 80%" bit. Does he mean this one flash crash?

Image
by Jonathan
Sun Dec 03, 2017 3:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: bitcoin - is there any real value here or is it a pure Ponzi scam?
Replies: 236
Views: 19366

Re: bitcoin - is there any real value here or is it a pure Ponzi scam?

quantAndHold wrote:
Sun Dec 03, 2017 3:30 pm
You do realize that the sample size of Bogleheads who are willing to hold short positions on *anything* is very small, right?
I think that's accurate. Still, for all the bitcoin bubble talk around here, we should be able to see a few shorters stand up.
by Jonathan
Sun Dec 03, 2017 1:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: bitcoin - is there any real value here or is it a pure Ponzi scam?
Replies: 236
Views: 19366

Re: bitcoin - is there any real value here or is it a pure Ponzi scam?

We know there are bitcoin shorts, and plenty of them. Shorts have been available for years, on many exchanges. I see them discussed frequently on crypto trading forums, and there are even Twitter accounts that use exchange APIs to tweet notable instances of margin calls (e.g. @bitmexrekt). There's a...
by Jonathan
Sun Dec 03, 2017 1:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: bitcoin - is there any real value here or is it a pure Ponzi scam?
Replies: 236
Views: 19366

Re: bitcoin - is there any real value here or is it a pure Ponzi scam?

Why not short bitcoin? Keynes... "The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent." Yeah, there's a bitcoin bubble. Bitcoin's value is destined to plummet. Sometime. But will that happen before or after I get wiped out by shorting it? I'm not an experienced bitcoin shorter, but ...
by Jonathan
Sun Dec 03, 2017 12:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Want to sell my Bitcoin, but when?
Replies: 90
Views: 8360

Re: Want to sell my Bitcoin, but when?

There isn't a great answer to these "When should I sell my bitcoin?" questions, or their sibling: "Is now a good time to buy bitcoin?" Per Boglehead philosophy: -Pre-determine your desired asset allocation into bitcoin, and rebalance regularly to maintain that same allocation. -Pre-answer specific q...
by Jonathan
Sun Dec 03, 2017 12:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: bitcoin - is there any real value here or is it a pure Ponzi scam?
Replies: 236
Views: 19366

Re: bitcoin - is there any real value here or is it a pure Ponzi scam?

AFAIK there's no easy way of shorting Bitcoin. You can short bitcoin on many exchanges. The most mainstream and best-insured of these is Coinbase's GDAX exchange. "You can't short bitcoin" seems to be a common trope these days. If believed, it provides a tidy solution to the question: "If one is ce...
by Jonathan
Sat Dec 02, 2017 2:48 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: The College Bubble - investment opportunities after the collapse?
Replies: 114
Views: 7723

Re: The College Bubble - investment opportunities after the collapse?

Watch for: -Improvements in telepresence technology. -Increase in credibility of testing/certification bodies not run by universities. Also monitor the decrease in credibility of once-hallowed universities, as they shift away from merit-driven admissions. For example, look at the Espenshade study; t...
by Jonathan
Sat Dec 02, 2017 1:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin - How it works for the layman
Replies: 30
Views: 2837

Re: Bitcoin - How it works for the layman

Bitcoin.com is not an advocate specifically for bitcoin. They're actually promoting another crypto called Bitcoin Cash. Look closer, this is a tricky hustle. The more credible source is Bitcoin.org. Bitcoin Cash's leadership is trying to push a "Bitcoin Cash is the real bitcoin" narrative. We've see...
by Jonathan
Sat Dec 02, 2017 1:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: bitcoin - is there any real value here or is it a pure Ponzi scam?
Replies: 236
Views: 19366

Re: bitcoin - is there any real value here or is it a pure Ponzi scam?

Why does gold have value? All mined gold is worth around $7 trillion. Gold has held significant value for thousands of years.

Sure, gold has some industrial value, but not that much. From a perspective of intrinsic value, steel is much more valuable.
by Jonathan
Thu Nov 30, 2017 4:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jack Bogle Says ‘Avoid Bitcoin Like the Plague’
Replies: 186
Views: 17011

Re: Jack Bogle Says ‘Avoid Bitcoin Like the Plague’

Still frantic trading at incredibly high prices is not good investing. That's perfectly reasonable. But if we want to be intellectually honest, it's probably best to just stop brandishing the tulip story to draw a point about financial volatility or bubbles, or to promote the concept of indexing. T...
by Jonathan
Thu Nov 30, 2017 4:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jack Bogle Says ‘Avoid Bitcoin Like the Plague’
Replies: 186
Views: 17011

Re: Jack Bogle Says ‘Avoid Bitcoin Like the Plague’

Sure, it's not completely fabricated like the story of The Tooth Fairy.

It was "a small crisis" that was grossly distorted and exaggerated, and most of what we've heard about it is not true.
by Jonathan
Thu Nov 30, 2017 3:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jack Bogle Says ‘Avoid Bitcoin Like the Plague’
Replies: 186
Views: 17011

Re: Jack Bogle Says ‘Avoid Bitcoin Like the Plague’

The modern view is that tulip mania is an overexaggerated myth. From SmithsonianMag.com: There Never Was a Real Tulip Fever . From the Wikipedia article: https://i.imgur.com/CX0pmSC.png FYI the Goldgar quoted in Wikipedia is Anne Goldgar, who wrote Tulipmania: Money, Honor, and Knowledge in the Dutc...
by Jonathan
Wed Nov 29, 2017 12:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tracking the Bitcoin Bubble in Real Time?
Replies: 70
Views: 4774

Re: Tracking the Bitcoin Bubble in Real Time?

An interesting issue is the amount of addresses that are not spendable. Since transactions are the same cost regardless of size and not a percentage of the size, there is an immense amount of Bitcoin tied up in addresses that cannot be consolidated because the transaction fees are more than the val...
by Jonathan
Wed Nov 29, 2017 11:09 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Didn't buy Bitcoin at $4600
Replies: 138
Views: 10716

Re: Didn't buy Bitcoin at $4600

An investment? By definition, an investment is something that will pay you a future cash flow. Either a dividend or stock buyback or an interest coupon. Bitcoin won't do any of those things, ever. That's not the definition of "investment" at all; that's your own personal definition. Here's a sample...
by Jonathan
Tue Nov 28, 2017 11:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tracking the Bitcoin Bubble in Real Time?
Replies: 70
Views: 4774

Re: Tracking the Bitcoin Bubble in Real Time?

I believe shorting on Coinbase's GDAX exchange might be among the most accessible and best-insured shorting methods now. On the bitcoin daytrading forums, people take combinations of different positions: long, short, leveraged, etc. Why don't the bitcoin bubble-predicting people short bitcoin? Is th...
by Jonathan
Tue Nov 28, 2017 10:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tracking the Bitcoin Bubble in Real Time?
Replies: 70
Views: 4774

Re: Tracking the Bitcoin Bubble in Real Time?

1) Incorrect - bitcoin can currently be shorted, on a large well-insured exchange.
2) Correct - the price is determined on exchanges.
3) Correct - bitcoins are divisible to a hundred-millionth of a bitcoin. One hundred-millionth of a bitcoin is called a "satoshi".
by Jonathan
Tue Nov 28, 2017 7:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jack Bogle Says ‘Avoid Bitcoin Like the Plague’
Replies: 186
Views: 17011

Re: Jack Bogle Says ‘Avoid Bitcoin Like the Plague’

Does this mean that Vanguard will no longer offer bitcoin-backed stocks?

Image
by Jonathan
Tue Nov 28, 2017 5:47 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Dentist refusing to refer to specialist?
Replies: 19
Views: 2692

Re: Dentist refusing to refer to specialist?

What kind of specialist? Pediatric dentist? Special needs dentist? Specific measures are suggested for autistic dental patients: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Special_needs_dentistry#Clinical_Management_of_the_Special_Needs_patient_within_the_Dental_Clinic It's possible your pediatrician can do a re...
by Jonathan
Tue Nov 28, 2017 5:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tracking the Bitcoin Bubble in Real Time?
Replies: 70
Views: 4774

Re: Tracking the Bitcoin Bubble in Real Time?

Tulip mania is now known to be an overexaggerated myth: SmithsonianMag.com: There Never Was a Real Tulip Fever . +1... tired of the overused, incorrect tulip bulb references. :sharebeer Even the label "bubble" is a misnomer. Let's look at three top candidates for the bubble mania characterization: ...
by Jonathan
Tue Nov 28, 2017 4:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tracking the Bitcoin Bubble in Real Time?
Replies: 70
Views: 4774

Re: Tracking the Bitcoin Bubble in Real Time?

Tulip mania is now known to be an overexaggerated myth: SmithsonianMag.com: There Never Was a Real Tulip Fever . +1... tired of the overused, incorrect tulip bulb references. :sharebeer Even the label "bubble" is a misnomer. Let's look at three top candidates for the bubble mania characterization: ...
by Jonathan
Tue Nov 28, 2017 3:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tracking the Bitcoin Bubble in Real Time?
Replies: 70
Views: 4774

Re: Tracking the Bitcoin Bubble in Real Time?

If indeed bitcoin happens to match that "Main Stages in a Bubble" graph that we see so frequently making the rounds, then we would currently be in the "Awareness Phase". You'll note that that section of the chart is marked "Institutional Investors", who are just now getting into bitcoin. Per that gr...
by Jonathan
Tue Nov 28, 2017 10:00 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Didn't buy Bitcoin at $4600
Replies: 138
Views: 10716

Re: Didn't buy Bitcoin at $4600

Valuethinker - it's great that you're passionate about this subject, but I'm not sure that 5 posts in a row is appropriate. Consider giving others an equal opportunity to share their opinions on this topic.
by Jonathan
Mon Nov 27, 2017 1:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Interesting ride so far - Crypto-curriencies
Replies: 86
Views: 5640

Re: Interesting ride so far - Crypto-curriencies

There's somewhat of a semantic shift by which cryptocurrencies are increasingly referred to as "crypto assets". Many of them aren't currencies, and were never intended to be. We still see some anti-bitcoin sentiment presented by classifying bitcoin solely as a "currency", and then denigrating its va...
by Jonathan
Sun Nov 26, 2017 12:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Interesting ride so far - Crypto-curriencies
Replies: 86
Views: 5640

Re: Interesting ride so far - Crypto-curriencies

If you're certain that bitcoin is a bubble or a Ponzi, you can short it. Coinbase is a mainstream, well-insured exchange that you can use to purchase a short. Then, if the value of bitcoin plummets, you'll profit significantly. Have any bogleheads shorted bitcoin? You can not short Bitcoin on Coinb...
by Jonathan
Sun Nov 26, 2017 12:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Interesting ride so far - Crypto-curriencies
Replies: 86
Views: 5640

Re: Interesting ride so far - Crypto-curriencies

Have any bogleheads shorted bitcoin? Have any bogleheads used bitcoin? Yes, I have. For example, I've used it to make many purchases on Amazon, using Purse.io. Search my post history, I have a writeup on how this is done. That's the biggest example. I've also made other misc small purchases. Of cou...
by Jonathan
Sun Nov 26, 2017 11:09 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Interesting ride so far - Crypto-curriencies
Replies: 86
Views: 5640

Re: Interesting ride so far - Crypto-curriencies

If you're certain that bitcoin is a bubble or a Ponzi, you can short it. Coinbase is a mainstream, well-insured exchange that you can use to purchase a short. Then, if the value of bitcoin plummets, you'll profit significantly.

Have any bogleheads shorted bitcoin?
by Jonathan
Fri Nov 24, 2017 4:58 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Beware Amazon Price Gouging
Replies: 74
Views: 9268

Re: Beware Amazon Price Gouging

Just like with credit cards, low-information buyers can overpay at Amazon, while savvy users benefit greatly. Price comparison sites, browser plugins, no-rush shipping bonuses, 15% off with subscribe-n-save, 20% off with Amazon Family, 5% cash back with the Amazon Store Card. Plus Amazon Warehouse, ...
by Jonathan
Thu Nov 23, 2017 9:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Interesting ride so far - Crypto-curriencies
Replies: 86
Views: 5640

Re: Interesting ride so far - Crypto-curriencies

How do you even invest, er speculate, in Bitcoin or Litcoin? That is without paying expensive "miners fees" or other transaction fees that make it far worse than mere speculation. Search Vanguard.com for "bitcoin". GBTC is fairly well-known: https://personal.vanguard.com/us/funds/stocks/snapshot?Ti...
by Jonathan
Wed Nov 22, 2017 12:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buying and Spending Bitcoin
Replies: 101
Views: 11190

Re: Buying and Spending Bitcoin

For adding a passphrase to a paper wallet, see BIP38 - Bitcoin Improvement Proposal #38. You can actually print out a bunch of copies of a paper wallet, all of them protected with a passphrase of your choosing. Some people like to do BIP38 wallets, placed inside tamper-evident envelopes. https://git...
by Jonathan
Wed Nov 15, 2017 10:38 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bitcoin: Significance of 12 transactions per second?
Replies: 28
Views: 3241

Re: Bitcoin: Significance of 12 transactions per second?

I think good bitcoin criticism is beneficial. However, you might consider reviewing some of the more established sources of research on it. There's actually an in-depth bitcoin wiki, with over 1,000 pages: https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Main_Page . That wiki has its own page on scalability that's over s...
by Jonathan
Sun Aug 20, 2017 12:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is Bitcoin?
Replies: 262
Views: 35268

Re: What is Bitcoin?

Obligatory Sanat Kumar "Why Gold" essay Jonathan, I've read up on bitcoin in the past, but I really appreciate the way you field questions and gently handle comments. Thanks for the thanks. I know that more people will consider my opinion if I hold myself to a high standard of conduct. This is espe...
by Jonathan
Sun Aug 20, 2017 12:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is Bitcoin?
Replies: 262
Views: 35268

Re: What is Bitcoin?

But based on fundamentals, I would say bitcoin is more predictably scarce. How is this possible when humans can fork off Bitcoin, and more importantly, create new crypto-currencies at will? Good question. They fork off bitcoin to a new cryptocurrency. You can fork off bitcoin and create HomerJCoin,...
by Jonathan
Sat Aug 19, 2017 3:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is Bitcoin?
Replies: 262
Views: 35268

Re: What is Bitcoin?

There is the issue of scarcity Agreed; that's a huge one. Predictable scarcity. Your comparison of "synthetic" scarcity vs. geological scarcity is intriguing. Is bitcoin more predictably scarce than gold? Based on historical performance, gold is more predictably scarce, I think. But based on fundam...
by Jonathan
Sat Aug 19, 2017 2:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is Bitcoin?
Replies: 262
Views: 35268

Re: What is Bitcoin?

Records of ownership of bitcoin are kept in its blockchain. Records of ownership of dollars are kept in two forms. One form is reserve balances held by banks in accounts at Federal Reserve banks. The other form is ownership certificates held directly by the owners. In this form ownership can be tra...
by Jonathan
Sat Aug 19, 2017 12:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is Bitcoin?
Replies: 262
Views: 35268

Re: What is Bitcoin?

So the reason there needs to be a Ledger, an Immutable Ledger, is because not all people will be honest. Yes, exactly, you're really nailing the core concepts. You can also phrase honesty as trust . Previous monetary systems relied on trust. Bitcoin is considered "trustless". It doesn't have to str...
by Jonathan
Sat Aug 19, 2017 11:37 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Play money bet gbtc (bitcoin etf)
Replies: 6
Views: 927

Re: Play money bet gbtc (bitcoin etf)

What's really fascinating about GBTC right now (technically an OTC and not an ETF) is the premium between it and bitcoin. For example, 1 share of GBTC is equal to 0.1 bitcoin. But 1 share of GBTC is over $700 right now. That's equivalent to a $7,000 bitcoin! Many believe that investors are unfamilia...
by Jonathan
Sat Aug 19, 2017 10:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is Bitcoin?
Replies: 262
Views: 35268

Re: What is Bitcoin?

Seems like we do a little better on each of these discussions. :sharebeer Regarding pre-mining - it means that developers mine coins for themselves before publicly releasing a cryptocurrency. It's kinda frowned upon. Bitcoin is NOT a pre-mine coin. Anyone could have mined bitcoin at first, but only ...
by Jonathan
Fri Aug 18, 2017 10:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is Bitcoin?
Replies: 262
Views: 35268

Re: What is Bitcoin?

Nice work on Khan Academy. There is little or no existing concept of an asset categorized as "the money ledger", which is perhaps why bitcoin sees so much friction from traditional investors. Those shiny things are known as Casascius Coins. Years back, a guy minted physical coins from brass/silver/g...
by Jonathan
Fri Aug 18, 2017 9:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is Bitcoin?
Replies: 262
Views: 35268

Re: What is Bitcoin?

Some Wall Street Journal articles on bitcoin: Bitcoin Soars Past $4,000 in Weekend Trading Why Bitcoin Is Surging, Again, Up 130% This Year Why Bitcoin Is Booming Why Bitcoin and Ether Went Wild Bitcoin’s Unlikely Evangelist: Fidelity CEO Abigail Johnson Coinbase on Mission to Take Digital Currency ...