Search found 618 matches

by MindBogler
Fri Jul 20, 2018 6:55 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Reevaluating mortgage payoff strategy
Replies: 19
Views: 2098

Re: Reevaluating mortgage payoff strategy

Paying off a 2.6% mortgage is not a rational financial decision. It is completely an emotional one. It flummoxes me to no end how so many Bogleheads advocate an emotional decision in this case. I agree 100%. You have a great rate that is easily beat with safe assets. Inflation is already running hi...
by MindBogler
Thu Jul 19, 2018 1:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The other side of stock buybacks
Replies: 11
Views: 1278

Re: The other side of stock buybacks

CEOs are fleecing the U.S. Treasury. Unemployment is at levels basically not seen since right after WWII. OMB just released 2019 budget deficit projection of $1,085 billion ($1.085 trillion). 2015 budget deficit was $438 billion. Any economist would tell you that during periods of great economic ex...
by MindBogler
Wed Jul 18, 2018 9:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Direct Real Estate Returns
Replies: 165
Views: 7254

Re: Direct Real Estate Returns

This thread is hilarious. Bad math. Assuming 3% - 5% real rates of appreciation for all RE investments. Just glazing over the difference between recourse and non-recourse financing like it's no big deal. Apparently negative cash flow time periods, vacancies, and capital repairs/improvements can be ...
by MindBogler
Thu Jul 12, 2018 12:30 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What rate of return are you using for retirement projections?
Replies: 99
Views: 8884

Re: What rate of return are you using for retirement projections?

I assume ~5% real return on a 75/25 portfolio with a 15-20 year horizon. I see no reason to expect returns over this period to be abysmally low compared to the long term historic average, though I do believe they are likely to be lower for the upcoming 5-10 year period unless something changes drama...
by MindBogler
Wed Jul 11, 2018 7:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The value of international stocks, in pictures
Replies: 62
Views: 7395

Re: The value of international stocks, in pictures

My position, given the fact that returns with / without international equity are close enough, hedging one's bet against a sustained equity downturn in the US is worth doing. It may very well come out behind in 20 years but we can't know what the future holds. Japan is the cliché example that is typ...
by MindBogler
Tue Jul 10, 2018 8:04 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 30 Year vs 15 Year Mortgage
Replies: 79
Views: 4493

Re: 30 Year vs 15 Year Mortgage

Go with a 30 year and don't even accelerate the payments. Put your accelerated payments in a taxable account and then when you have the liquidity to pay it off (or not) make your decision. For everyone telling you the 15 year is a slam dunk, I have to respectfully disagree. That advice is couched in...
by MindBogler
Sun Jul 01, 2018 4:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Timing of rollover of Vanguard Institutional Index Fund (VINIX) in 403(b)?
Replies: 14
Views: 589

Re: Timing of rollover of Vanguard Institutional Index Fund (VINIX) in 403(b)?

This seems odd to me. I'm surprised you cannot do a direct custodian to custodian transfer instead of a rollover. I'm not familiar with your particular situation, but normally when doing a rollover, tax is withheld and the check is sent in your name, then you have 60 days to deposit it into the new...
by MindBogler
Thu Jun 28, 2018 5:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Disappointed with Fidelity 401k
Replies: 36
Views: 3512

Re: Disappointed with Fidelity 401k

WellsTrade first and foremost, then TDAmeritrade. Are you sorry you ask? :) No, just curious as I only have experience with those 3. Every company I have worked at has a Fidelity 401k and I can't get away from them fast enough. Both Vanguard and Fidelity seem to have archaic trading platforms. I'll...
by MindBogler
Thu Jun 28, 2018 5:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Disappointed with Fidelity 401k
Replies: 36
Views: 3512

Re: Disappointed with Fidelity 401k

That said, I have not been impressed with Fidelity and have made that known here on bogleheads.org. But I have not been impressed with Vanguard either. Out of curiosity, which brokerage(s) have you been impressed with? I'm currently at Vanguard and Fidelity but we previously had a SIMPLE IRA accoun...
by MindBogler
Thu Jun 28, 2018 11:03 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is the first 100k really the hardest?
Replies: 156
Views: 42895

Re: Is the first 100k really the hardest?

AerialWombat wrote:
Fri Jun 22, 2018 10:16 pm
I don’t count my real estate equity because valuation is much fuzzier and it’s illiquid.
I agree 100%. I only count liquid assets in my net worth (cash/bond/stock). Some people get too far down in the weeds on this stuff for my tastes.
by MindBogler
Thu Jun 21, 2018 7:59 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Buy new truck before retiring?
Replies: 53
Views: 2901

Re: Buy new truck before retiring?

I have owned all of the major brands - Chevy , Ford and Dodge and often more than one brand at a time. Fact is they all have strong points and weak points - while I valued my Fords (2 F350's and one F150) they are not superior in all areas except when it comes to price. It's one thing to own all th...
by MindBogler
Thu Jun 21, 2018 7:41 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Buy new truck before retiring?
Replies: 53
Views: 2901

Re: Buy new truck before retiring?

jwfails wrote:
Thu Jun 21, 2018 7:39 am
Never been a Ford fan, but that is why they have different brands.
Well, it might be time to look again. If you look at them rationally, examine payload, towing, mpg, horsepower/torque and features then it is abundantly clear which company is producing the superior truck. Hint: its not Chevy.
by MindBogler
Thu Jun 21, 2018 7:27 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: 4K Computer Monitors: 27 vs 32 inches?
Replies: 29
Views: 2269

Re: 4K Computer Monitors: 27 vs 32 inches?

If you are going to buy a 4K monitor you are wasting your money under 32 inches IMO. My personal opinion is that you'll get more benefit from a higher refresh rate at 1440p than you will at 4k. Higher refresh rates are easy on the eyes. Get a 144Hz 1440p monitor and you'll never understand how you l...
by MindBogler
Thu Jun 07, 2018 9:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Global Market Portfolio, 1959-2015
Replies: 18
Views: 1618

Re: The Global Market Portfolio, 1959-2015

SimpleGift wrote:
Thu Jun 07, 2018 8:30 pm

If the global market portfolio returns one-half of these (real) numbers in the decades ahead, we should rejoice!
Should we? That seems needlessly pessimistic. Returning half the real return average for of a previous 55 year period would be a disaster.
by MindBogler
Mon May 28, 2018 7:57 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Career planning in IT/software development when over 40
Replies: 118
Views: 10858

Re: Career planning in IT/software development when over 40

I don't think age is the issue in IT so much as the generalization that more experienced individuals tend to be more set in their ways. I don't like generalizations, but I think they are appropriate when it comes to this topic. I'm right around the same age and I have been quite successful in IT. If...
by MindBogler
Mon May 28, 2018 7:27 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Career planning in IT/software development when over 40
Replies: 118
Views: 10858

Re: Career planning in IT/software development when over 40

One more thought. Assuming your lifestyle will allow it,perrhaps you can get a security clearance beyond TS. How does one get a security clearance anyway? One joins the military with an MOS that requires 100% clearance or one is sponsored by an employer, e.g. Raytheon, Lockheed, etc. but the latter...
by MindBogler
Mon May 28, 2018 5:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: When and how often do you rebalance
Replies: 52
Views: 3955

Re: When and how often do you rebalance

My IPS says to rebalance both annually and according to 5/25 bands. However I'm considering just doing down to annually (and ignoring bands). If you backtest in www.portfoliovisualizer.com, you'll see that annual rebalancing was optimal. That is, it produced better results than more frequent rebala...
by MindBogler
Thu May 24, 2018 8:21 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Alexa Echo sent family's audio file to a contact
Replies: 64
Views: 5886

Re: Alexa Echo sent family's audio file to a contact

I don't feel sorry. Anyone who puts these devices in their home, unfortunately, deserves what they get. Would you invite a stranger into your private chambers? I think not, but we'll let an "innocuous" pieces of technology sit there with a microphone... Cell phones are just as bad, to the point that...
by MindBogler
Sun May 20, 2018 10:43 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Newly widowed, how do I invest 1.5 million life ins. proceeds
Replies: 72
Views: 8179

Re: Newly widowed, how do I invest 1.5 million life ins. proceeds

Please accept my condolences. A simple 3 fund portfolio is a fine solution. I agree that a 4% withdrawal at your age is too aggressive. I would be targeting a 3% withdrawal rate as many others have said. That yields $45,000 in today's dollars + $48,0000 from SS and you are at $7,750/mo. If market re...
by MindBogler
Thu May 17, 2018 6:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: YTD: VBTLX down 2.28%; VBILX down 2.99%; VTSAX down 0.23%
Replies: 106
Views: 10676

Re: YTD: VBTLX down 2.28%; VBILX down 2.99%; VTSAX down 0.23%

Cyclesafe wrote:
Thu May 17, 2018 9:26 am
In my experience, when there are fundamental disagreements between reasonable people, its because one, the other, or both are operating under different basic assumptions.
An astute observation.
by MindBogler
Sat May 12, 2018 11:11 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Lucrative careers?
Replies: 318
Views: 24908

Re: Lucrative careers?

Look at the trades: Electrician, plumber, HVAC/mechanical, machinist, welding, etc. These careers are in high demand after years of telling society that everyone needs a degree. Not every positive career outcome requires a college degree. I have many friends in the trades and they all earn what most...
by MindBogler
Sat May 12, 2018 11:06 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Lucrative careers?
Replies: 318
Views: 24908

Re: Lucrative careers?

Pharmacist Not an easy program or job but starting salary over $100K from day one. Edit- more like $120K The pill counters are one of the first health care professions that will be automated. The ratio of pharmacists employed per pharmacy is going to go wayyyyyyy down in the next few years. Radiolo...
by MindBogler
Sun May 06, 2018 3:12 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Warning: avoid Windows 10 update 1803
Replies: 91
Views: 9952

Re: Warning: avoid Windows 10 update 1803

I've updated 3 personal machines and several VMs with no issues encountered. If you have issues with the upgrade, I suggest grabbing the Media Creation Tool for 1803 and doing a format / clean install (back up your data somewhere first, of course). The issues people are running into are no different...
by MindBogler
Sat May 05, 2018 7:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Paying down your mortgage as a way to balance your portfolio?
Replies: 72
Views: 4169

Re: Paying down your mortgage as a way to balance your portfolio?

could you look at putting extra cash toward your mortgage as a way to balance a stock heavy portfolio? Perhaps I'm missing something, but I don't see how paying off a mortgage has any connection with balancing a stock-heavy portfolio. Would you end up with no mortgage plus 100% stocks? Is that "bal...
by MindBogler
Sat May 05, 2018 6:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Paying down your mortgage as a way to balance your portfolio?
Replies: 72
Views: 4169

Re: Paying down your mortgage as a way to balance your portfolio?

could you look at putting extra cash toward your mortgage as a way to balance a stock heavy portfolio? Perhaps I'm missing something, but I don't see how paying off a mortgage has any connection with balancing a stock-heavy portfolio. Would you end up with no mortgage plus 100% stocks? Is that "bal...
by MindBogler
Mon Apr 30, 2018 2:52 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Money vs. Work-life balance
Replies: 68
Views: 7885

Re: Money vs. Work-life balance

Wow, I think that is a 100% response rate for staying where I am - I wasn't expecting it to be so lop-sided. Good food for thought this weekend. I do have a phone interview with them coming up, but I can always decline the real/on-site interview. You appear to make a very generous salary and your w...
by MindBogler
Mon Apr 30, 2018 2:43 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Las Vegas Restaurants
Replies: 25
Views: 2048

Re: Las Vegas Restaurants

Doom&Gloom wrote:
Mon Apr 30, 2018 2:27 pm
I have been told that Lotus of Siam burned down a few years ago and re-built in a much nicer area.
I was there just a few months back, the restaurant is brand new -- they didn't even have their liquor license yet.
by MindBogler
Mon Apr 30, 2018 2:41 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Las Vegas Restaurants
Replies: 25
Views: 2048

Re: Las Vegas Restaurants

Another vote for Lotus of Siam. This is an excellent Thai restaurant but be forewarned that the wait times can be fully absurd (2 hours+). I "waited" almost 3 once, which entailed taking a cab elsewhere to have drinks and then returning. I suggest dining here outside normal hours for a great meal t...
by MindBogler
Sat Apr 28, 2018 12:00 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Bee in the house - what to do???
Replies: 27
Views: 1561

Re: Bee in the house - what to do???

Get a house cat, they love to eat insects. I am constantly amazed at how many bugs ours find and dispatch!

Seriously, I don't get why this is a question. If you don't have a fly swatter, grab a newspaper or something flat with some mass (but not too much) and swat the bee.

:sharebeer
by MindBogler
Tue Apr 24, 2018 7:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: KF's simple rules to achieve FI [Financial Independence]
Replies: 451
Views: 33040

Re: KF's simple rules to achieve FI

Yes but if I make $50k for 24 years and $100k the last year and then apply your simple rule, I've really only saved for the annual expense I had during the first 24 years even though in each year I saved the requisite amount. That is an extreme example, but it also applies if one gradually makes mo...
by MindBogler
Mon Apr 23, 2018 8:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Surveys
Replies: 47
Views: 3075

Re: Emailed Vanguard Survey from "GfK". Possible spam or phishing?

Just say no. Hang up on all unsolicited calls and throw away all junk mail. By the time you are old and senile this repetitive reflex will be second nature. It is safer to be a skeptic for your entire life. You can collect a dozen $50 gift cards in as many years but fall for a scam once and you migh...
by MindBogler
Mon Apr 02, 2018 6:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Lockheed Martin about to become the biggest company in history?
Replies: 66
Views: 7546

Re: Is Lockheed Martin about to become the biggest company in history?

There are many companies working on fusion and eventually someone is going to succeed. I would be surprised if Lockheed was the company to do so, but regardless, when it happens, it will be a boon for all of humanity. Solar energy has a niche but it will never be a viable power source outside of the...
by MindBogler
Thu Mar 29, 2018 8:15 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Letter to your beneficiaries / heirs "In case I croak"
Replies: 11
Views: 1190

Re: Letter to your beneficiaries / heirs "In case I croak"

With all due respect, it isn’t an “in case I croak” letter but a “when I croak” letter. But I digress. Maybe not, the world doesn't need to be so absolute. In our family's case, with young teenage children the letter is indeed meant for "in case I croak." When they are older, we are older, and deat...
by MindBogler
Thu Mar 29, 2018 6:27 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Letter to your beneficiaries / heirs "In case I croak"
Replies: 11
Views: 1190

Re: Letter to your beneficiaries / heirs "In case I croak"

This is exactly what we have done for our heirs and family, including recommendations on how the funds might be managed to best effect.
by MindBogler
Wed Mar 28, 2018 8:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: KF Annual Expense Based Personal Finance Strategy
Replies: 149
Views: 7146

Re: KF Annual Expense Based Personal Finance Strategy

I am a student; my current annual expense seems unrelated to what I expect to spend in 20 or 30 years. I think this system is exceptionally simplified to the point of having too many exceptions. I'd say the system and math involved is actually deceptively simple and correct. The problem is that for...
by MindBogler
Tue Mar 27, 2018 8:03 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Anyone Deleting Facebook?
Replies: 338
Views: 25041

Re: Anyone Deleting Facebook?

div/0 I can't delete what I never had. I've never understood the willingness to share so much private information with a public company. The recent events have only further vindicated my position with formerly incredulous peers, friends and family. I've been defending this position incessantly since...
by MindBogler
Mon Mar 26, 2018 10:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Grok's LMP-4: The 3-legged stool approach to retirement planning
Replies: 114
Views: 9993

Re: Grok's LMP-4: The 3-legged stool approach to retirement planning

I agree we don't really know how tips will hold up in a hyperinflation scenario. One obvious point is that it would be important to hold them in the tax sheltered accounts in that scenario. Otherwise one would get killed on taxes. I suppose it would be fair to say that they would retain more of the...
by MindBogler
Mon Mar 26, 2018 8:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Grok's LMP-4: The 3-legged stool approach to retirement planning
Replies: 114
Views: 9993

Re: Grok's LMP-4: The 3-legged stool approach to retirement planning

The big question mark I have about TIPS generally is how well would they actually track inflation when they were really needed? Let's assume a 1975-85 scenario, would they actually hold up or would the latency between hyperinflation and each periodic 6 month payment / adjustment be too high and even...
by MindBogler
Mon Mar 26, 2018 8:05 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What Budget? Do you keep one?
Replies: 116
Views: 8102

Re: What Budget? Do you keep one?

We used MS Money before finally switching over to YNAB a few years back. It is nice to have an uninterrupted history of spending habits for close to 10 years. The interesting thing is, with the exception of an auto loan, we can see that our spend has remained mostly constant for the last 5 years whi...
by MindBogler
Sun Mar 25, 2018 11:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Seasoned bogleheads repressing the thought of lower expected returns
Replies: 178
Views: 12941

Re: Seasoned bogleheads repressing the thought of lower expected returns

We have jobs in two uncorrelated industries. We have a high savings rate between 30-40% depending on the year. The market isn't something you can set your watch by. There is a dispersion of potential outcomes. The expected return even with CAPE where it stands today is still positive. The market cou...
by MindBogler
Mon Mar 19, 2018 5:06 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Can I Retire at 38?
Replies: 118
Views: 13149

Re: Can I Retire at 38?

Forget all the naysayers, they are all wrong IMO... with one exception. You cannot retire in California, at least not SoCal. You can move too a lower COL area and easily retire or do what interests you.
by MindBogler
Mon Mar 19, 2018 9:54 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Real Estate Issue -- Monthly Payment too High with VA Loan
Replies: 19
Views: 942

Re: Real Estate Issue -- Monthly Payment too High with VA Loan

Carefreeap wrote:
Mon Mar 19, 2018 9:47 am
Something else is going on if you bought the property a few years back and it's NOW a problem. That 3.5% interest rate is a keeper if you can't recast a VA loan.
One of the downsides of a VA loan is they do not allow them to be recast.
by MindBogler
Sat Mar 17, 2018 5:04 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Bought house six months ago - now feeling like we're treading water and can't save money
Replies: 189
Views: 17427

Re: Bought house six months ago - now feeling like we're treading water and can't save money

Drop the tithe or reduce it by at least half. You have to look out for yourself first, the church will do just fine either way. Ask yourself, if you fall on financial hardship, are they going to rescue you?
by MindBogler
Sat Mar 17, 2018 4:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market Efficiency - Or Not
Replies: 33
Views: 2681

Re: Market Efficiency - Or Not

MJW wrote:
Sat Mar 17, 2018 4:18 pm
MindBogler wrote:
Sat Mar 17, 2018 4:09 pm
willthrill81 wrote:
Sat Mar 17, 2018 3:37 pm
Do you have a method to outperform the inefficient market then?
Nope, but I don't think it is out of the realm of possibility. I have no interest in it.
I also don't think it follows that the lack of a viable alternative is confirmation of a wise or efficient market.
A great point! :beer
by MindBogler
Sat Mar 17, 2018 4:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market Efficiency - Or Not
Replies: 33
Views: 2681

Re: Market Efficiency - Or Not

willthrill81 wrote:
Sat Mar 17, 2018 3:37 pm
Do you have a method to outperform the inefficient market then?
Nope, but I don't think it is out of the realm of possibility. I have no interest in it.
by MindBogler
Sat Mar 17, 2018 3:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market Efficiency - Or Not
Replies: 33
Views: 2681

Re: Market Efficiency - Or Not

In a casino, the odds are stacked against you. That's not the case with equities, where the expected outcome is positive. Investing in equities is like running the casino. The odds are in your favor but sometimes you have to pay out. I do not accept that the market is efficient or the idea that all...
by MindBogler
Sat Mar 17, 2018 2:55 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Say I Can Scrape Up Some Money, Then What Do I Do?
Replies: 15
Views: 1307

Re: Say I Can Scrape Up Some Money, Then What Do I Do?

Pay down the home equity loan first. Your business auto loan is probably deductible against business income? Pay off those 0% loans on schedule. The most important thing in all of this is to avoid opening these miscellaneous accounts in the future! If you have an adequate emergency fund you would ne...
by MindBogler
Thu Mar 15, 2018 5:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Should I wait until the end of March to sell VBILX?
Replies: 18
Views: 1682

Re: Should I wait until the end of March to sell VBILX?

Um VBILX Intermediate-Term Bond Index Fund Admiral is 50% corporate bonds. :confused Sorry, I mixed up my bond funds so you are rightly confused! :oops: For some reason I mistook that ticker symbol, I was actually referring to my preference for the intermediate treasury-only fund(s): VFIUX/VFITX
by MindBogler
Thu Mar 15, 2018 5:08 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: At what point does it make sense to pay down your mortgage?
Replies: 76
Views: 8389

Re: At what point does it make sense to pay down your mortgage?

I have a 30 year 3.25% note with 28 years remaining. We're at the point where I can buy a CD and almost get better return on capital than prepaying this mortgage. I think the odds that we make it 28 years without an inflation print in excess of 3.25% for at least a handful of years is quite low. So ...