Search found 826 matches

by MindBogler
Thu Sep 05, 2019 8:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Forbes: The Bubble That Is The S&P 500 Index
Replies: 38
Views: 6203

Re: Forbes: The Bubble That Is The S&P 500 Index

A classic problem is the belief that one knows what’s going to happen to large companies. I’m a long time user - both personally and professionally - of Linux based computing environments. I was convinced that Windows would die at the server level; it effectively has. I was not, however, able to fo...
by MindBogler
Thu Aug 22, 2019 6:41 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Prepare for Recession?
Replies: 74
Views: 9800

Re: Prepare for Recession?

Everyone is so sure that a recession is imminent that I'm inclined to believe nothing of the sort.
by MindBogler
Mon Aug 19, 2019 8:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Major CEOs say shareholder value is no longer their main objective
Replies: 11
Views: 1384

Re: Major CEOs say shareholder value is no longer their main objective

In other news, major companies that subscribe to this philosophy fall out of favor with shareholders.
by MindBogler
Sun Aug 18, 2019 6:13 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Go for new job (more pay but travel) or stay?
Replies: 65
Views: 3668

Re: Go for new job (more pay but travel) or stay?

I don't mind traveling and there are a lot of perks for doing so. Whether or not this works for your family really depends on the interpersonal dynamics. I find when I come home after being gone 3-4 days that the family is glad to see me. We do things that make valuable memories. When I'm not travel...
by MindBogler
Thu Aug 15, 2019 2:45 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: I wanted to teach myself computer programming.
Replies: 64
Views: 5088

Re: I wanted to teach myself computer programming.

I would say everything depends on being able to find a comfortable, modern, well-supported IDE (integrated development environment) that run on whatever equipment you have or can easily get. And I would suggest any reasonably modern language, that is used in the real world and shows up in job requi...
by MindBogler
Tue Aug 13, 2019 11:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Larry Swedroe: Small Value Stocks are Cheap, Factor Investing Works]
Replies: 673
Views: 25248

Re: Total Markets and category averages

willthrill81 wrote:
Tue Aug 13, 2019 9:49 pm
The bigger point, IMHO, is that there is no guarantee that TSM (or any class of stock) will provide you with the returns you need to achieve your goals.
Yes, this is exactly why we must hold a variety of assets. I split my US equity 50-50 between LCG and SCV for this reason. :sharebeer
by MindBogler
Tue Aug 13, 2019 9:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Larry Swedroe: Small Value Stocks are Cheap, Factor Investing Works]
Replies: 673
Views: 25248

Re: Total Markets and category averages

Taylor Larimore wrote:
Tue Aug 13, 2019 7:50 pm
We know because the total market is, by definition, average.
I also know that an average return could end up in the bottom quintile if the distribution of returns has a significant right skew. While that outcome hasn't happened yet, nothing precludes it.
by MindBogler
Tue Aug 13, 2019 5:41 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Laid off - 59yo - advice please
Replies: 44
Views: 6871

Re: Laid off - 59yo - advice please

+1 to the advice to broaden your job search to other locations. You should be able to find work if you don't limit your geography.
by MindBogler
Wed Aug 07, 2019 8:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: First 20% of bonds in long-term Treasuries
Replies: 264
Views: 15825

Re: First 20% of bonds in long-term Treasuries

This is similar to what I do. I have about 50-50 EDV-money market split in my fixed income. It's been a great year...
by MindBogler
Wed Aug 07, 2019 12:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 10 year treasury yield
Replies: 34
Views: 2732

Re: 10 year treasury yield

harvestbook wrote:
Wed Aug 07, 2019 12:21 pm
Nine months ago, many people were saying (including on this board) that "Rates have nowhere to go but up."
That has been a common claim here for some years with the accompanying advice to go short in order to avoid the bond apocalypse. How did those predictions turn out?
by MindBogler
Wed Aug 07, 2019 11:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing for negative interest rates
Replies: 31
Views: 1752

Re: Investing for negative interest rates

nisiprius wrote:
Wed Aug 07, 2019 10:02 am
The boring, obvious answer is, that if the bond funds I use are literally showing a negative SEC rate and there's no reason to think it's temporary, I'll pull my money out of them and stick it in the bank.
Unfortunately, if Europe is any guide, the bank will likely also have a negative yield.
by MindBogler
Tue Aug 06, 2019 2:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Explain why long-term bonds aren't awesome
Replies: 120
Views: 23696

Re: Explain why long-term bonds aren't awesome

vineviz wrote:
Tue Aug 06, 2019 2:22 pm
Is it really so inconceivable that another 50% drop, from 2% to 1% might be possible ?
It is starting to look probable!
by MindBogler
Wed Jul 31, 2019 7:41 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Bloomberg: Forget Tech, Medicine Still Pays More
Replies: 124
Views: 9074

Re: Bloomberg: Forget Tech, Medicine Still Pays More

This discussion seems to ignore that the road to medicine, tech (or both) is not a free lunch. Medical school admission is hardly a foregone conclusion. People fail to matriculate every single year. And then the people earning these salaries in tech tend to be performers. Not everyone with a STEM de...
by MindBogler
Tue Jul 30, 2019 5:46 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: F150 Repair advice
Replies: 39
Views: 1907

Re: F150 Repair advice

Liam Friend wrote:
Tue Jul 30, 2019 12:42 pm
One last update from OP. The new $3,000 engine would come with a 3-year warranty and unlimited miles. The free used engine would only have my remaining 7k miles left under warranty.
Get the new engine.
by MindBogler
Tue Jul 30, 2019 12:13 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: F150 Repair advice
Replies: 39
Views: 1907

Re: F150 Repair advice

Lemons do happen, even on the forum darling Toyotas. 😂

I need more info on what guarantee the new or used motors have before proceeding.
by MindBogler
Sat Jul 13, 2019 9:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Americans believe they need $1.7 million, on average, to retire
Replies: 284
Views: 28683

Re: Americans believe they need $1.7 million, on average, to retire

I was just poking fun at the fact that there are people who do work they hate, just for the money. That sounds like a terrible way to pass a big part of your life. Working to live, not living to work. For many work is a means to an end and nothing more. I do work I no longer enjoy because the alter...
by MindBogler
Sat Jul 13, 2019 9:17 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Financing my daughter's college with my 401K
Replies: 60
Views: 3835

Re: Financing my daughter's college with my 401K

Why not have your daughter spend two years at the local community college living at home and then transfer? Didn’t hurt me (attorney), my brother (teacher) or my son (CS degree and employed as a programmer after graduating this year with his BS). Now college is paid for and no need to tap the 401k....
by MindBogler
Tue Jul 09, 2019 1:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Americans believe they need $1.7 million, on average, to retire
Replies: 284
Views: 28683

Re: Americans believe they need $1.7 million, on average, to retire

I was just poking fun at the fact that there are people who do work they hate, just for the money. That sounds like a terrible way to pass a big part of your life. Working to live, not living to work. For many work is a means to an end and nothing more. I do work I no longer enjoy because the alter...
by MindBogler
Wed Jun 19, 2019 7:55 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Anyone buy Security Cams from Costco?
Replies: 60
Views: 5114

Re: Anyone buy Security Cams from Costco?

I'm planning to buy Ubiquiti Unifi POE security cameras. I upgraded my home network last summer to Ubiquiti get and really like their stuff. +1 for Ubiquiti for the home. It's almost commercial grade but reasonably priced. My network is close to 6 years old, all Ubiquiti gear without an issue in th...
by MindBogler
Fri Jun 14, 2019 1:09 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Anyone buy Security Cams from Costco?
Replies: 60
Views: 5114

Re: Anyone buy Security Cams from Costco?

I'm planning to buy Ubiquiti Unifi POE security cameras. I upgraded my home network last summer to Ubiquiti get and really like their stuff. +1 for Ubiquiti for the home. It's almost commercial grade but reasonably priced. My network is close to 6 years old, all Ubiquiti gear without an issue in th...
by MindBogler
Wed Jun 12, 2019 6:49 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Job opportunity - KSA/Bahrain
Replies: 66
Views: 5754

Re: Job opportunity - KSA/Bahrain

No offense, OP, but people doing low experience IT jobs can find work in Bahrain for as much or more, living in a private compound with private security, housing and food paid for. You are barely compensating for the risk you are taking. If you've never been to the Middle East, I suggest you take a...
by MindBogler
Wed Jun 12, 2019 6:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Karsten (Early Retirement Now) Pens a Challenge to Merriman and the Small/Value Premium
Replies: 68
Views: 6446

Re: Karsten (Early Retirement Now) Pens a Serious Challenge to Merriman and the Small/Value Premium

siamond wrote:
Wed Jun 12, 2019 2:06 pm
I mean, sorry, this is NOT a serious analysis.
I'll probably come off harsh but there are serious flaws in many articles I've read on ERN. Most of the analyses are superficial or seriously flawed but that's what you get from a blog.
by MindBogler
Tue Jun 11, 2019 10:49 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Job opportunity - KSA/Bahrain
Replies: 66
Views: 5754

Re: Job opportunity - KSA/Bahrain

Seems this thread is highly biased by people living state side in their comfort zones. US might be culturally suitable but isn't safe at all! Anyone can shoot you or your kids in their schools with no gun control (114 kids killed/injured in 2018 in US schools). I've been way outside the comfort zon...
by MindBogler
Tue Jun 11, 2019 10:38 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Job opportunity - KSA/Bahrain
Replies: 66
Views: 5754

Re: Job opportunity - KSA/Bahrain

No offense, OP, but people doing low experience IT jobs can find work in Bahrain for as much or more, living in a private compound with private security, housing and food paid for. You are barely compensating for the risk you are taking. If you've never been to the Middle East, I suggest you take a ...
by MindBogler
Tue Jun 04, 2019 6:26 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What do business pros wear on redeye Business Class flights
Replies: 50
Views: 6734

Re: What do business pros wear on redeye Business Class flights

Nearly A Moose wrote:
Mon Jun 03, 2019 9:49 pm
I'm obviously waaayyyy overthinking this, but I always prefer to be able to at least act like I know what I'm doing in a professional setting.
The plane isn't a professional setting. Go comfortably and you'll look like you know what you are doing. You are way overthinking this.
by MindBogler
Sun Jun 02, 2019 9:47 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Extra Payments on Monthly Mortgage Considerations
Replies: 37
Views: 3619

Re: Extra Payments on Monthly Mortgage Considerations

You have the same loss if your house declines in value, whether you paid down the mortgage or not. Are you in the same financial position if you prepaid $50k or kept it in the bank when the foreclosure comes? I maintain that there can be risk in paying extra on the mortgage and it shouldn't be exam...
by MindBogler
Thu May 30, 2019 5:47 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Extra Payments on Monthly Mortgage Considerations
Replies: 37
Views: 3619

Re: Extra Payments on Monthly Mortgage Considerations

That's true. I shouldn't have worded it as a new mortgage, like a refinance would be. However, a recast achieves the point of my post which is to take advantage of the principal balance you've already reduced by prepayment to reduce the mortgage payment and free up cash flow. it's also worth noting...
by MindBogler
Thu May 30, 2019 8:28 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Extra Payments on Monthly Mortgage Considerations
Replies: 37
Views: 3619

Re: Extra Payments on Monthly Mortgage Considerations

A) is correct, but B) is not; the prepayment compounds as well. The inability to realize the prepayment (except via cash-out refinance) is a loss of liquidity, which is one common reason not to pay down a mortgage. If you don't need the liquidity (for example, you could sell actual bonds if you nee...
by MindBogler
Fri May 24, 2019 6:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: just a general comment about "too conservative" investors here
Replies: 151
Views: 15562

Re: just a general comment about "too conservative" investors here

1. Behavioral (emotion driven) errors come in many forms, I consider those who needlessly work themselves into the grave or work 10+ years more than they probably need, to be making one. Once you realize that beyond a certain threshold of income/wealth, time becomes the most valuable resource, it c...
by MindBogler
Thu May 23, 2019 9:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to "lie" with Personal Finance
Replies: 28
Views: 5292

Re: How to "lie" with Personal Finance

The section about failing to inflation adjust portfolio balances during the withdrawal phase to "prove" the 4% rule is particularly salient. We see that here a fair amount.
by MindBogler
Wed May 22, 2019 11:37 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Why Do Homeowners Have Higher Net Worths than Renters?
Replies: 30
Views: 2456

Re: Why Do Homeowners Have Higher Net Worths than Renters?

ohai wrote:
Wed May 22, 2019 11:28 am
blackholescion wrote:
Wed May 22, 2019 9:53 am
Also, as you pay off a mortgage, equity is built in the house which adds to your net worth. You don't get that with renting.
However, in general, mortgage payments are higher than rent payments.
I'd love to see some data to support this assertion.
by MindBogler
Sun May 19, 2019 11:11 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Mortgage in Retirement
Replies: 73
Views: 5875

Re: Mortgage in Retirement

willthrill81 wrote:
Sun May 19, 2019 11:05 am
Believe what you will.
+1 enjoy your weekend.

:sharebeer
by MindBogler
Sun May 19, 2019 10:59 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Mortgage in Retirement
Replies: 73
Views: 5875

Re: Mortgage in Retirement

But the SRR is still there, which has been my point all along, and which you seem completely unwilling to acknowledge exists. I agree with the risk. I don't know why you would think otherwise. I laid out a simple mathematical model and it was clear to me that, holding variables constant, higher non...
by MindBogler
Sat May 18, 2019 3:32 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Mortgage in Retirement
Replies: 73
Views: 5875

Re: Mortgage in Retirement

What I'm trying to explain is that if N = T, the composition of N is irrelevant because spending cannot be reduced further. This means the statement "mortgage increases sequence of returns risk" is not true. It has conditions for truth and that is why I'm making an issue at all. No, it has no condi...
by MindBogler
Sat May 18, 2019 2:38 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Mortgage in Retirement
Replies: 73
Views: 5875

Re: Mortgage in Retirement

Of course the SRR is the same in both instances because the withdrawal rate is identical in both. Exactly my point! I don't know why you seem to be insinuating that all of a retiree's expenses are fixed. I'm not making that assertion. I simplified, controlling the variables in the equation because ...
by MindBogler
Sat May 18, 2019 1:30 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Mortgage in Retirement
Replies: 73
Views: 5875

Re: Mortgage in Retirement

Let's look a very simple example of this. We'll ignore mortgage interest rates as they are irrelevant here. At the point of retirement, we'll assume that a retiree has the choice as to whether to pay off off their mortgage or leave the funds invested in their portfolio. They will need to pay the mo...
by MindBogler
Sat May 18, 2019 11:04 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Mortgage in Retirement
Replies: 73
Views: 5875

Re: Mortgage in Retirement

Even if you disagree with the specifics of the simulation that Karsten conducted, it doesn't change the fact that any fixed expense in retirement increases sequence of returns risk compared to the absence of a fixed expense. It's a mathematical fact. If one needs $60k a year to live does it matter ...
by MindBogler
Sat May 18, 2019 10:09 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Mortgage in Retirement
Replies: 73
Views: 5875

Re: Mortgage in Retirement

Karsten at Early Retirement Now has an excellent post about this, two excerpts from which are quoted below. I find much of what has been done on ERN interesting but I don't agree with his analysis on this point. Examine it critically: There are 8 sample portfolios in his "model" and yet not a singl...
by MindBogler
Fri May 17, 2019 4:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does stock allocation truly matter?
Replies: 61
Views: 5636

Re: Does stock allocation truly matter?

Investor C might very well have concluded during his accumulation phase that diversification wasn't necessary, but extrapolating that experience to his decumulation phase would most definitely been a big mistake. This is very interesting. I was just toying around with similar scenarios in PV. Using...
by MindBogler
Fri May 17, 2019 3:20 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Mortgage in Retirement
Replies: 73
Views: 5875

Re: Mortgage in Retirement

And, to your point, the solution is to really be careful you account for that major expenses in your expenses projections, 'cause a mistake of the magnitude of a mortgage expense could turn out to be a real disaster of a retirement. Yes, I agree. In my opinion, if you have accounted for this expens...
by MindBogler
Fri May 17, 2019 12:02 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Mortgage in Retirement
Replies: 73
Views: 5875

Re: Mortgage in Retirement

Let me reiterate that fixed withdrawals increase a retiree's sequence of returns risk by definition. It's not a matter of "feelings." You keep saying this while seemingly ignoring the fact that there will always be some fixed expenses in retirement: utilities, gas/transportation, groceries, health ...
by MindBogler
Fri May 17, 2019 9:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does stock allocation truly matter?
Replies: 61
Views: 5636

Re: Does stock allocation truly matter?

vineviz wrote:
Thu May 16, 2019 8:58 pm
As I said earlier, during the accumulation phase the level of equity diversification matters some but not a lot. During decumulation, it matters A LOT.
This was a useful and thought-provoking analysis. It is most interesting that it appears to have been ignored in this thread. :confused
by MindBogler
Wed May 15, 2019 9:15 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Move out or stay at my parents?
Replies: 70
Views: 5008

Re: Move out or stay at my parents?

AerialWombat wrote:
Wed May 15, 2019 7:49 pm
Two weeks after high school graduation, I moved from one coast to the other (military). I have zero comprehension of kids today living at home this long.

Get out and get on with life, bro.
Same, and I would have left earlier if I could have.
by MindBogler
Tue May 14, 2019 7:27 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Crawl space encapsulation
Replies: 38
Views: 3317

Re: Crawl space encapsulation

The US Department of Energy recommends not only crawlspace encapsulation but also crawlspace conditioning. https://www.energy.gov/sites/prod/files/2014/01/f6/4_3c_ba_innov_unventedcrawlspaces_011713.pdf I have retrofitted my house in the humid southeast. Took care of drainage first: e.g. downspouts...
by MindBogler
Mon May 06, 2019 3:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How and when did you do it - to get to 1 Million
Replies: 130
Views: 28104

Re: How and when did you do it - to get to 1 Million

Top99% wrote:
Mon May 06, 2019 12:47 pm
I am sure the market timing police will write me up a ticket for it but buying assets "on sale" can help if you have the ability and willingness to take the risk.
Pull that portfolio over... :D
by MindBogler
Mon May 06, 2019 10:22 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: ants - aargh
Replies: 69
Views: 4438

Re: ants - aargh

Drainage or grading issues can also cause ants to move indoors. The pellets around the foundation help and Terro baits usually do the trick. I suggest getting two brands at first until you are sure which type your ants will eat then load up on that type. With cats in the house you can setup the bait...
by MindBogler
Fri May 03, 2019 9:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Short BYND? (beyond meat, IPO today)
Replies: 76
Views: 5797

Re: Short BYND? (beyond meat, IPO today)

I guess that's the thing about echo chambers: it's hard to tell if you're in one or the other guy is. I certainly agree that, as a worldwide trend, people will eat what is cheap. I don't know what the production costs for BYND and the like are now, but if you just consider the land use required to ...
by MindBogler
Fri May 03, 2019 6:22 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: At 28, I Don't See How I Can Make Any Projections for My Retirement Amount or Age?
Replies: 83
Views: 6691

Re: At 28, I Don't See How I Can Make Any Projections for My Retirement Amount or Age?

What I’ve done to try to get some sense of the future is establish what I term my “net worth progression” spreadsheet. It contains year end data for all my accounts dating as far back as I can. But it also runs forward to age 70. What I most commonly use it for is to see if things continue exactly ...
by MindBogler
Thu May 02, 2019 10:11 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Intel sell or hold NOW sold.
Replies: 67
Views: 5347

Re: Intel sell or hold

SemperFi79 wrote:
Wed May 01, 2019 9:16 am
Sold everything today! 😱
Way to go, you made the logical choice. And Semper Fi!