Search found 956 matches

by MindBogler
Tue May 19, 2020 3:37 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Ford F150 Engine long term reliability - V8 versus Turbo V6?
Replies: 62
Views: 3736

Re: Ford F150 Engine long term reliability - V8 versus Turbo V6?

palanzo wrote:
Tue May 19, 2020 3:09 pm
And as the article points out the valves are no where to be seen. It's GDI also. No thanks.
The 2017 and up Ecoboost has both direct injectors and port injectors which wash the valves at idle and cruise. This is becoming more common on GDI vehicles due to the known issues with valve fouling.
by MindBogler
Tue May 05, 2020 4:58 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Unicorn mortgage still just a dream
Replies: 29
Views: 4546

Re: Unicorn mortgage still just a dream

We also closed last week on a 30yr at 2.75%, non-jumbo loan. I didn't believe it until the wire came through and paid off the previous lender. It took longer for this to close than any refi I've ever done and included multiple rounds of employment verification (3rd time on day of close). What appro...
by MindBogler
Tue May 05, 2020 3:48 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Unicorn mortgage still just a dream
Replies: 29
Views: 4546

Re: Unicorn mortgage still just a dream

We also closed last week on a 30yr at 2.75%, non-jumbo loan. I didn't believe it until the wire came through and paid off the previous lender. It took longer for this to close than any refi I've ever done and included multiple rounds of employment verification (3rd time on day of close).
by MindBogler
Sat Apr 25, 2020 2:22 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: IRS Get My Payment up and running
Replies: 369
Views: 24310

Re: IRS Get My Payment up and running

I checked again today after having a payment status unavailable message. It requested direct deposit info which I was able to enter and now everything looks good. Thanks everyone.
by MindBogler
Wed Apr 22, 2020 4:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: First 20% of bonds in long-term Treasuries
Replies: 807
Views: 51617

Re: First 20% of bonds in long-term Treasuries

For that special point in time to be actionable, you need to know when it is. If you miss it, then you haven't neutralized the risk... And for a LTT fund which is impacted by interest rates, market volatility (people fleeing to safety or going all in on a hot market), etc., I have no idea how anyon...
by MindBogler
Tue Apr 21, 2020 10:58 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: will covid 19 destroy senior campuses
Replies: 52
Views: 4364

Re: will covid 19 destroy senior campuses

Nope, it’s blown right past the flue this month. And it looks like it will pass the no. 1 killer heart disease very soon. Are you sure? https://www.cdc.gov/heartdisease/facts.htm If you want to see some thought-provoking statistics, look up the rate of deaths by heart disease during the COVID pande...
by MindBogler
Sat Apr 18, 2020 5:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does "Quantitative Easing" Lead to Higher Inflation?
Replies: 87
Views: 5997

Re: Does "Quantitative Easing" Lead to Higher Inflation?

One other key factor that's likely driving low inflation expectations today: oil prices back at 1990s levels. https://i.imgur.com/F17tmm3.jpg Source: FRED How much impact this will have on future inflation, beyond the virus crisis, remains to be seen. And much lower if you inflation adjust this gra...
by MindBogler
Thu Apr 16, 2020 9:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: whos' just about had it w/ SCV ?
Replies: 263
Views: 16394

Re: whos' just about had it w/ SCV ?

All of those periods of underperformance have things in common--ultra low interest rates, ultra low inflation, stagnant of absent GDP growth. I do not believe this is a mere coincidence. My belief is the macro-economic background that calls the tune for SCV. Excellent post and insight. In a low gro...
by MindBogler
Thu Apr 16, 2020 8:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: whos' just about had it w/ SCV ?
Replies: 263
Views: 16394

Re: whos' just about had it w/ SCV ?

Presented with no commentary:
Image
by MindBogler
Thu Apr 16, 2020 7:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What in the world is propping up this market?
Replies: 206
Views: 20748

Re: What in the world is propping up this market?

This is not supported by the research [1] [2] [3]. People are actually biased towards being overly NEGATIVE, not positive. This is apart of our survival mechanism, we survived because we assume rain wasn't coming next week, so we stock pile more food and supplied. If we biased the other way our spe...
by MindBogler
Thu Apr 16, 2020 7:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What in the world is propping up this market?
Replies: 206
Views: 20748

Re: What in the world is propping up this market?

Wild unsubstantiated theory: Could it be...maybe....just maybe, mom 'n pop investors as a group are acting more like long-term investors instead of short-term, myopic, emotionally driven, "dumb money" investors? What you are seeing is exactly the kind of behavior I'd expect if more people invested ...
by MindBogler
Thu Apr 16, 2020 7:54 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Refinance Mega Thread
Replies: 1474
Views: 136383

Re: Refinance Mega Thread

I will be closing next week on a 2.75% / 30yr. LTV is about 50%, it is a conforming loan and the out of pocket cost is ~$750. I thought for a few weeks it wouldn't happen but got the good news today. This is a VA loan.
by MindBogler
Thu Apr 16, 2020 7:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: whos' just about had it w/ SCV ?
Replies: 263
Views: 16394

Re: whos' just about had it w/ SCV ?

My US stocks are split 50:50 between LCG and SCV. I might have one of the largest factor tilts of them all. I have been rebalancing into SCV a lot lately.
by MindBogler
Mon Apr 13, 2020 8:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does compounding really work with stocks?
Replies: 64
Views: 4722

Re: Does compounding really work with stocks?

ososnilknarf wrote:
Mon Apr 13, 2020 7:01 pm
Seems like semantics really.
Bulls-eye!
by MindBogler
Sun Apr 12, 2020 11:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does compounding really work with stocks?
Replies: 64
Views: 4722

Re: Does compounding really work with stocks?

justsomeguy2018 wrote:
Sun Apr 12, 2020 10:51 pm
So why then do finacial gurus say to "invest early to get the power of compounding!" ?
Read dbr's excellent post. That is the end of the thread.
by MindBogler
Sun Apr 12, 2020 7:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does compounding really work with stocks?
Replies: 64
Views: 4722

Re: Does compounding really work with stocks?

So, if I am reading you right, BRK grew in value exactly 20.3% each and every year? I suspect not. I think there was some variance in the returns. I even think there were some years with negative returns. So, not compounding. I think we are talking about stochastic processes. Expect that there are ...
by MindBogler
Fri Apr 10, 2020 12:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is ESPP as Risky as Stock Picking ?
Replies: 50
Views: 1970

Re: Is ESPP as Risky as Stock Picking ?

Ok, fine. The company completely tanks and stock is worth literally 0, never to recover. Or stock value happens to plummet the day after they award the stock (by more than 17%), and you forget to sell. Company is in such a bad way that they never pay out. Could happen. (Remember, it doesn't matter ...
by MindBogler
Fri Apr 10, 2020 12:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How long after starting investing, did you start to be happy about the power of compounding?
Replies: 92
Views: 6070

Re: How long after starting investing, did you start to be happy about the power of compounding?

The problem with this question, generally, is that there is no single target which will satisfy everyone's definition of happy. Compounding is always at work whether it is noticeable or not. In my opinion, is starts to become noticeable (and I will be happy) when portfolio growth consistently exceed...
by MindBogler
Fri Apr 10, 2020 11:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is ESPP as Risky as Stock Picking ?
Replies: 50
Views: 1970

Re: Is ESPP as Risky as Stock Picking ?

There is no investment in the world better than a guaranteed return of at least 17.6% in 6 months (yes, 17.6%; 100/85 = 1.176). Max out your contribution, and sell as soon as you can. There is no risk. It is not a guaranteed return. There is always some risk, especially if the stock is highly volat...
by MindBogler
Sat Mar 28, 2020 7:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mortgage - Keep balance as High as Possible
Replies: 162
Views: 11487

Re: Mortgage - Keep balance as High as Possible

Thru all this craziness got me thinking about my mortgage. The thought it to always keep the mortgage owed as close to the value of the home as long as interest rates are low. My rational is that if you have a ton of equity and heaven forbid something happens where you can't make payments, the bank...
by MindBogler
Sat Mar 28, 2020 2:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Penalty-free withdrawals from 401(k)s
Replies: 37
Views: 3166

Re: Penalty-free withdrawals from 401(k)s

Doesn't this present a potential arbitrage opportunity? Example Scenario: 1. $15,000 remaining auto loan balance @ 2.49% (assume less than 3 years remaining). 2. Withdraw $15,000 from Vanguard Federal Money Market (.77% 7 day yield) in a TIRA and pay balance. 3. Repay IRA on monthly basis per origin...
by MindBogler
Fri Mar 27, 2020 5:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: High Frequency Trading
Replies: 10
Views: 616

Re: High Frequency Trading

Hopeandaprayer wrote:
Fri Mar 27, 2020 5:47 pm
For the last few weeks, there have often been strong moves up or down at the end of the day. I don’t know much about it but I suspect these are the result of high frequency trading algorithms closing out positions.
This thread would be better with some data.
by MindBogler
Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So bottom is probably behind us....right?
Replies: 709
Views: 63061

Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Tough to trust the Chinese numbers. US has tested 550k people so far - good work on scaling up testing. 86% of tests negative. Hard to understand this market, I will keep some dry powder available while continuing to nibble here and there. When it is all said and done the only thing we will know fo...
by MindBogler
Thu Mar 26, 2020 7:18 pm
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Bear 2020 Like Bear 1987?
Replies: 6
Views: 854

Re: Bear 2020 Like Bear 1987?

lowndes wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 5:57 pm
bigred77 wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 5:45 pm
If then next 13 years are similar to 1987 - 2000 then just go ahead and sign me up right now.
I'd take 1987 - 2020 again, retire and call it a day.
Agreed. If we have 1987 to 2000 again I'll be in the yacht club.

:sharebeer
by MindBogler
Thu Mar 26, 2020 7:14 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: I am 16, Bogleheads help me be rich one day
Replies: 114
Views: 7870

Re: I am 16, Bogleheads help me be rich one day

MiloMoney wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 6:16 pm
Some if I am understanding this right with compound interest the secret is just time?
That's it! Compound interest is the secret and the most important inputs you can control are: savings rate and time.
by MindBogler
Thu Mar 26, 2020 10:33 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: I am 16, Bogleheads help me be rich one day
Replies: 114
Views: 7870

Re: I am 16, Bogleheads help me be rich one day

Thank you for responding! I think aggressive is the way to go; my sibling's portfolio drives me nuts. She is 60% Stocks 40% Bonds at age 18 in a general brokerage saving for retirment. I think I'm going to keep the phrase "get rich slow pathway." I love it! At your age you have the most important r...
by MindBogler
Wed Mar 25, 2020 8:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So bottom is probably behind us....right?
Replies: 709
Views: 63061

Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Smells like a sucker rally. It seems as soon as the market started falling, traders were already talking about when the next bull market will begin. They are still in the denial stage. This market has further to fall as traders (and "investors") lose their nerve. This is my guess but doesn't matter...
by MindBogler
Wed Mar 25, 2020 2:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So bottom is probably behind us....right?
Replies: 709
Views: 63061

Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Public health officials are not economists, nor are they politicians, or right 100% of the time. Furthermore, COVID-19 testing regimes IMO, are a complete embarrassment to the branch of Mathematics known as "Statistics" -- no random sampling, no consistency, reporting numerators without denominator...
by MindBogler
Wed Mar 25, 2020 2:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So bottom is probably behind us....right?
Replies: 709
Views: 63061

Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

I don't have any crystal ball but I did finally execute my rebalance moves this week. I hope we are there but won't be surprised if it continues to slide a bit more.
by MindBogler
Wed Mar 25, 2020 10:44 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What have you learned from this situation that you will take action on?
Replies: 158
Views: 14386

Re: What have you learned from this situation that you will take action on?

I have had approximately 6 months of emergency funds available. I think I am going to build a CD ladder and keep at least 1 year of expenses.
by MindBogler
Tue Mar 24, 2020 11:18 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Dumping small value?
Replies: 107
Views: 8581

Re: Dumping small value?

I did not listen to the buy and hold don't sell low crowd at the beginning of this crisis and I am extremely happy I did not. I dumped half my small value while TLH after the first week of loses. I should have liquidated it all, but still have significant holdings in DFA target value I. My issue is...
by MindBogler
Tue Mar 24, 2020 9:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Todays +10 percent gain from QE?
Replies: 52
Views: 3882

Re: Todays +10 percent gain from QE?

Red Spot wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 5:44 pm
I am very grateful to all those staying the curse as otherwise things could be much worse
Staying the curse...now that is a new one. :)

:sharebeer
by MindBogler
Thu Mar 19, 2020 9:00 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: When will S&P 500 go back to 3386 ?
Replies: 98
Views: 6246

Re: When will S&P 500 go back to 3386 ?

June 2021.
by MindBogler
Thu Mar 19, 2020 8:54 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Master of biology degree
Replies: 40
Views: 1979

Re: Master of biology degree

The only way you will make money is to be interested in research or teaching and, if so, go all the way to PhD. The other avenue is to stop at a B.S. and apply for medicine, pharmacy, dentistry or similar.
by MindBogler
Thu Mar 19, 2020 8:39 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: When will S&P 500 go back to 3386 ?
Replies: 98
Views: 6246

Re: When will S&P 500 go back to 3386 ?

Brianmcg321 wrote:
Thu Mar 19, 2020 8:33 pm
I can't wait for the ride back up.

Then we can start reading threads titled "I got out now I don't know when to get back in...help". And then we can all have a big laugh.
:sharebeer

We know they are coming!
by MindBogler
Thu Mar 19, 2020 7:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Senator Insider Trading before Crash
Replies: 13
Views: 1684

Re: Senator Insider Trading before Crash

NPR reported a senator selling 1.7 million in stock, including 150k in Wyndham Hotels and Resorts before the crash. He also warned others in a private meeting. How is this not frontpage news? Starting to lose faith in the US stock market. If this (and other insider trading that surely occurred) isn...
by MindBogler
Thu Mar 19, 2020 3:27 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Unprepared for Potential Great Depression Part 2
Replies: 244
Views: 22812

Re: Unprepared for Potential Great Depression Part 2

I find it highly probable that in 10 years, your money will have grown 2x-3x, you will be very secure, another crash will happen, and you will be on this board, at 50, listening to some 39-year old talk about how "this time it's totally different, and I'm sure we're heading for another Great Depres...
by MindBogler
Thu Mar 19, 2020 10:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buyers v Sellers
Replies: 22
Views: 868

Re: Buyers v Sellers

watchnerd wrote:
Thu Mar 19, 2020 10:26 am
Market Makers are middlemen who make money on spreads and facilitate trading.
I think if you read my post with /sarc tags, they meet all the criteria. :D
by MindBogler
Thu Mar 19, 2020 10:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buyers v Sellers
Replies: 22
Views: 868

Re: Buyers v Sellers

Binx wrote:
Thu Mar 19, 2020 10:05 am
I have heard that term before. What/Who are Market Makers?
People who aren't panicking, believe in capitalism and also have a big wallet.
by MindBogler
Wed Mar 18, 2020 11:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: $19 Trillion in Corporate Debt At Risk of Default
Replies: 167
Views: 11280

Re: $19 Trillion in Corporate Debt At Risk of Default

willthrill81 wrote:
Wed Mar 18, 2020 11:03 am
I agree, but I still see no point to effectively mix Treasuries and other government-backed debt with corporate debt as in TBM if one has access to a 100% Treasury fund.
Agreed! TBM is just not for me despite its revered status 'round these parts.
by MindBogler
Mon Mar 16, 2020 9:58 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Refinance Mega Thread
Replies: 1474
Views: 136383

Re: Refinance Mega Thread

I got a 30 year locked at 2.75% but it wasn't at no cost. I would say it was a reasonable cost (~1200). The break even for me is about 6 months so it was a no brainer.
by MindBogler
Mon Mar 16, 2020 9:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Deploying your emergency fund to buy stocks? Think again.
Replies: 183
Views: 29394

Re: Deploying your emergency fund to buy stocks? Think again.

If I am not able to cover a year's worth of expenses from my stock portfolio, that means equities have dropped over 90% from their peak. If that happens, we will likely be in a doomsday scenario where even cash has lost its value. If stocks drop by 50% and you need to sell to cover some emergency e...
by MindBogler
Mon Mar 16, 2020 9:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Deploying your emergency fund to buy stocks? Think again.
Replies: 183
Views: 29394

Re: Deploying your emergency fund to buy stocks? Think again.

An emergency fund should be in liquid form: cash, short term treasurys, CDs, etc. It doesn't belong in stocks. The last thing you want to do is be forced to sell your stocks to eat when they are down 50%. The problem is that people get greedy trying to sit on a quarter and squish out a nickel. Why ...
by MindBogler
Mon Mar 16, 2020 8:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Deploying your emergency fund to buy stocks? Think again.
Replies: 183
Views: 29394

Re: Deploying your emergency fund to buy stocks? Think again.

Question for the group: do you believe a portion of one's "emergency fund" actually be invested in the stock market? An emergency fund should be in liquid form: cash, short term treasurys, CDs, etc. It doesn't belong in stocks. The last thing you want to do is be forced to sell your stocks to eat w...
by MindBogler
Mon Mar 16, 2020 1:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: $19 Trillion in Corporate Debt At Risk of Default
Replies: 167
Views: 11280

Re: $19 Trillion in Corporate Debt At Risk of Default

I'm 100% Treasurys for bonds. Total Bond is filled with MBS and corporates. I don't want exposure to either one of them.
by MindBogler
Sun Mar 15, 2020 4:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: <deleted>
Replies: 85
Views: 7839

Re: Its going to get really bad, so I am Hedging - reducing stock exposure

watchnerd wrote:
Sun Mar 15, 2020 3:50 pm
Oh, completely speculative. I concur.
Of all the Internet responses I've ever seen, this has been the most unexpected.
:sharebeer
by MindBogler
Sun Mar 15, 2020 3:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: <deleted>
Replies: 85
Views: 7839

Re: Its going to get really bad, so I am Hedging - reducing stock exposure

watchnerd wrote:
Sun Mar 15, 2020 11:44 am
--The US healthcare system will probably be scrutinized, with who knows what kind of reforms
Everything you said except this seems to make sense and have a reasoned backing. We don't yet know how the US healthcare system will perform relative to others yet so this is biased speculation at best.
by MindBogler
Sun Mar 15, 2020 3:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Deploying your emergency fund to buy stocks? Think again.
Replies: 183
Views: 29394

Re: Deploying your emergency fund to buy stocks? Think again.

I think this is a great reminder. It is an even better wake up call to those who have been telling us how they don't need an emergency fund for x,y or z reason. There is no reason aside hubris or extreme wealth not to have an emergency fund IMO.