Search found 342 matches

by Vision
Thu Jun 04, 2020 11:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anybody do any GOOD timing the market?
Replies: 123
Views: 7955

Re: Anybody do any GOOD timing the market?

I felt physically ill executing these trades, but ignored my emotions and did them anyway. That is actually a good indicator that you are doing the right thing. Contrarians make money in the markets, not the herd. If you are "feeling comfortable" and "following your gut" when executing a trade, cha...
by Vision
Thu Jun 04, 2020 9:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anybody do any GOOD timing the market?
Replies: 123
Views: 7955

Re: Anybody do any GOOD timing the market?

I did in fact managed to time the market buying the stock market dip in February. And anyone can check history of my posts where I said I am "buying the dip". I compared this to alternative of DCAing and "indexing" and I outperformed should I have bought at my DCA time interval. Here is the reason I...
by Vision
Wed Apr 22, 2020 12:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which investing related websites you read regularly?
Replies: 6
Views: 768

Which investing related websites you read regularly?

Could you recommend any good ones where important investing topics are explained in a simple language?
by Vision
Tue Apr 21, 2020 5:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Japan like "lost decades" possible in US and world stock market?
Replies: 82
Views: 8407

Re: Are Japan like "lost decades" possible in US and world stock market?

Are Japan like "lost decades" possible in US and world stock market? If US keeps inventing new technologies does this prevent a lost decade phenomena? If no, then what has to occur for lost decades to take place? If horrible outcomes aren't possible for stocks, your returns will be less. So you are...
by Vision
Tue Mar 24, 2020 5:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are current recession's comparisons to Great Depression doomer tier, accurate or understated?
Replies: 112
Views: 9185

Re: Are current recession's comparisons to Great Depression doomer tier, accurate or understated?

Keep reading from doomers how this will be "worse than Great Depression". Do you think that is accurate? Of course not. You’ve got to be kidding me. Do people even read history? Watching reruns of The Walking Dead doesn’t count. This is a virus. It will pass. People are going to start shopping agai...
by Vision
Mon Mar 23, 2020 4:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's Not Different This Time
Replies: 358
Views: 34795

Re: It's Not Different This Time

As usual very interesting posts and varied viewpoints. I fall into the category of thinking that this time might be different. When the threat of corona-virus is over isn't it possible that people change their spending proclivities permanently? Personally, we will never go to restaurant buffets aga...
by Vision
Mon Mar 23, 2020 4:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's Not Different This Time
Replies: 358
Views: 34795

Re: It's Not Different This Time

1. There are already cures like Remdesivir 2. Vaccine being developed 3. Why would it be "different this time"? This isn't Yellowsone, this isn't Black Death and this isn't a Meteor. So in reality - is it really THAT bad? Everyone takes a pause. Maybe for a month, maybe for a year. But afterwards th...
by Vision
Mon Mar 23, 2020 4:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are current recession's comparisons to Great Depression doomer tier, accurate or understated?
Replies: 112
Views: 9185

Re: Are current recession's comparisons to Great Depression doomer tier, accurate or understated?

Lockdown likely until June. https://www.usnews.com/news/us/articles/2020-03-22/us-coronavirus-lockdown-to-last-10-12-weeks-top-trump-official-says I really don't see how we avoid a depression. Can you explain why you think this will cause a multiple decade bear market? Can you please quote me where...
by Vision
Mon Mar 23, 2020 11:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are current recession's comparisons to Great Depression doomer tier, accurate or understated?
Replies: 112
Views: 9185

Re: Are current recession's comparisons to Great Depression doomer tier, accurate or understated?

Lockdown likely until June. https://www.usnews.com/news/us/articles/2020-03-22/us-coronavirus-lockdown-to-last-10-12-weeks-top-trump-official-says I really don't see how we avoid a depression. Can you explain why you think this will cause a multiple decade bear market? Can you please quote me where...
by Vision
Mon Mar 23, 2020 8:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are current recession's comparisons to Great Depression doomer tier, accurate or understated?
Replies: 112
Views: 9185

Re: Are current recession's comparisons to Great Depression doomer tier, accurate or understated?

DB2 wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 1:11 pm
Lockdown likely until June.

https://www.usnews.com/news/us/articles ... icial-says

I really don't see how we avoid a depression.
Can you explain why you think this will cause a multiple decade bear market?
by Vision
Mon Mar 23, 2020 6:51 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Unprepared for Potential Great Depression Part 2
Replies: 245
Views: 24182

Re: Unprepared for Potential Great Depression Part 2

That is a pretty bullish posts if you ask me OP. When "this will be worse than the great depression" doomermaxxed posts start popping up you know we are nearing the bottom. Should I maintain a 75/25 stock to bond allocation or sell on a bear market rally and reduce stocks? Good old "buy high, sell l...
by Vision
Sat Mar 21, 2020 4:10 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Dad pulling retirements out of market. Advice Please!
Replies: 84
Views: 10492

Re: Dad pulling retirements out of market. Advice Please!

If he did it in February, he is smart.

Now... I wouldn't.
by Vision
Sat Mar 21, 2020 3:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do people keep saying you have to be right twice?
Replies: 213
Views: 7859

Re: Why do people keep saying you have to be right twice?

They say it to cope with their lack of guts and ability to make proper decisions, so they rationalise that it is harder than it looks to cope with their passive investing meme that fell 30%.
by Vision
Sat Mar 21, 2020 1:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If Stocks WILL Go Lower Than it is Now...
Replies: 133
Views: 11440

Re: If Stocks WILL Go Lower Than it is Now...

Nobody knows how the infection curve will play out in the U.S. The ultimate impact on the global economy is unclear. Uhh, I know. It will be worse than Italy or as bad as Italy. Bookmark my post and look back at it 2 months from now. Why am I not trading this? Because there is a chance market also ...
by Vision
Sat Mar 21, 2020 12:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are current recession's comparisons to Great Depression doomer tier, accurate or understated?
Replies: 112
Views: 9185

Re: Are current recession's comparisons to Great Depression doomer tier, accurate or understated?

Is the coronavirus better or worse than the Spanish Flu of 1918? I don't know.
You don't? There was lots of info no this. Spanish Flu was worse. Way worse. Now you know.
by Vision
Sat Mar 21, 2020 12:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is it really that bad?
Replies: 96
Views: 8177

Re: Is it really that bad?

I'm in my early 30s and currently have around $600k in the market, in taxable and non-taxable accounts, and I fully expect the market to go lower as panic takes hold. Maybe Dow to 14k? I've lost around $200k in the last month. I've been rebalancing as the equities market goes lower. I understand th...
by Vision
Sat Mar 21, 2020 12:10 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: I knew this was going to happen and did nothing...
Replies: 107
Views: 10152

Re: I knew this was going to happen and did nothing...

With SARS, they didn't have the benefit of already having been through SARS. I'm not going to argue with you any more. I can admit that you felt strongly there was a high likelihood of a particular outcome after a certain point. The outcome wasn't guaranteed, but you can play the odds, and maybe th...
by Vision
Sat Mar 21, 2020 12:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.
Replies: 1220
Views: 108045

Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

It''s brainless, because some people follow specifics and after following Corona daily for several hours since December it was clear to me it will be a global catastrophe. I actually thought "wait, stock market will tank from this", but I didn't sell because ingrained Boglehead dogma was too strong...
by Vision
Sat Mar 21, 2020 11:59 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: I knew this was going to happen and did nothing...
Replies: 107
Views: 10152

Re: I knew this was going to happen and did nothing...

OP, I understand where you are coming from. Two weeks ago I wanted to pull out (for the first time in my 20 years of investing ), and decided I could live with 10% off the highs. I talked to some friends, who talked "sense" into me, and decided to stay the course. I made my own decision, not them, ...
by Vision
Sat Mar 21, 2020 10:41 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: I knew this was going to happen and did nothing...
Replies: 107
Views: 10152

Re: I knew this was going to happen and did nothing...

So, ALL the pros out there that do it day in and day out for a living didn't see it or do anything in February, but some select few amateurs that hang out in BHs did?? Sure.... Yes, because all pros don't obsessively sit at home for 8hrs a day since December reading every new report from China rega...
by Vision
Sat Mar 21, 2020 10:36 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: I knew this was going to happen and did nothing...
Replies: 107
Views: 10152

Re: I knew this was going to happen and did nothing...

but I'm not 100% convinced, only 87%. I don't act on 87%. Enlighten us here. How do you calculate 87% certainty? Not 80%, not 90%, but 87%. I don't know. Maybe it's 60%, maybe 87%. That is the thing - right now I'm talking from my gut. Market has priced in a lot of this already. But in early Februa...
by Vision
Sat Mar 21, 2020 10:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.
Replies: 1220
Views: 108045

Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

No one knew it would be this bad, In 2003 we experienced SARS in China,and the SP 500 was up 29%, No one knew that this Corona Virus would spread so rapidly Wrong. I knew, many others knew. Anyone who was following statistics, infected rate, gov response in China and leaked videos knew in January a...
by Vision
Sat Mar 21, 2020 10:06 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: I knew this was going to happen and did nothing...
Replies: 107
Views: 10152

Re: I knew this was going to happen and did nothing...

but I'm not 100% convinced, only 87%. I don't act on 87%. Reasons for 13% doubt: - governments will freeze stock market trading - governments will inject trillions into stocks, businesses and economy to "pump it up" - people will adapt to online type of work and lifestyle - cures currently actually...
by Vision
Sat Mar 21, 2020 10:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.
Replies: 1220
Views: 108045

Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

"I would have positioned my finances if I hadn't ingrained the illogical Boglehead dogma that 100% of the time it is best to "do nothing" There have been literally 100's of posts on this site that recommend to take action if you are at or near 100% sure. They also say not to take action unless you ...
by Vision
Sat Mar 21, 2020 9:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.
Replies: 1220
Views: 108045

Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

No one knew it would be this bad, In 2003 we experienced SARS in China,and the SP 500 was up 29%, No one knew that this Corona Virus would spread so rapidly Wrong. I knew, many others knew. Anyone who was following statistics, infected rate, gov response in China and leaked videos knew in January a...
by Vision
Sat Mar 21, 2020 9:52 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: I knew this was going to happen and did nothing...
Replies: 107
Views: 10152

Re: I knew this was going to happen and did nothing...

Just kind of venting here - I was absolutely, 100% certain this was going to happen by mid February. The reason is that I watched 'The Stand' on TV when I was 9 and it put a fascination/fear of pandemics deep in my heart, so I was following the news coming out of China very, very early on. However ...
by Vision
Sat Mar 21, 2020 9:43 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: I knew this was going to happen and did nothing...
Replies: 107
Views: 10152

Re: I knew this was going to happen and did nothing...

I'm getting tired of these threads already. So many people are so confident that they absolutely KNEW what would happen. No. You envisioned one possible outcome of a situation which turned out to be correct. Umm, no dude, I knew 100%, because since December 2019 I was following Covid news for hours...
by Vision
Sat Mar 21, 2020 9:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.
Replies: 1220
Views: 108045

Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

No one knew it would be this bad, In 2003 we experienced SARS in China,and the SP 500 was up 29%, No one knew that this Corona Virus would spread so rapidly Wrong. I knew, many others knew. Anyone who was following statistics, infected rate, gov response in China and leaked videos knew in January a...
by Vision
Sat Mar 21, 2020 9:27 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: I knew this was going to happen and did nothing...
Replies: 107
Views: 10152

Re: I knew this was going to happen and did nothing...

It says buy when there is blood on the street. There is no blood on the street for now, far from it. And there is potential for real blood on real streets with this crisis. There is literally blood in streets as of now in Italy, Spain, Germany. I invest in world stock market not US only. I thought ...
by Vision
Sat Mar 21, 2020 9:22 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: I knew this was going to happen and did nothing...
Replies: 107
Views: 10152

Re: I knew this was going to happen and did nothing...

Rats jump off burning ships. The best time to sell was a month ago. Tomorrow might very well be the next best time. Weekend Wall Street --- https://www.ig.com/en/indices/markets-indices/weekend-wall-street I was 100% sure stock market will go to hell in February. I'm not 100% sure now. I don't act ...
by Vision
Sat Mar 21, 2020 9:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.
Replies: 1220
Views: 108045

Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

OP did the smart thing. Same thing I should have done if not listened to Boglehead brainless dogma. This time it actually was 100% (not 99%, 100%) clear what was going to happen once cases outside China started popping up and China went full lockdown. It's not brainless. It's good advice the vast, ...
by Vision
Sat Mar 21, 2020 9:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are current recession's comparisons to Great Depression doomer tier, accurate or understated?
Replies: 112
Views: 9185

Re: Are current recession's comparisons to Great Depression doomer tier, accurate or understated?

Ok, this is bad then. I'm a turbo idiot for sticking with brainless Boglehead "just do nothing" Dogma in Feb 2020 when my analysis led me to believe China scenario will happen all over the world. Having worked in the industry in the front line of many of these crisis - I am going to have to disagre...
by Vision
Sat Mar 21, 2020 8:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are current recession's comparisons to Great Depression doomer tier, accurate or understated?
Replies: 112
Views: 9185

Re: Are current recession's comparisons to Great Depression doomer tier, accurate or understated?

Ok, this is bad then. I'm a turbo idiot for sticking with brainless Boglehead "just do nothing" Dogma in Feb 2020 when my analysis led me to believe China scenario will happen all over the world. Having worked in the industry in the front line of many of these crisis - I am going to have to disagre...
by Vision
Sat Mar 21, 2020 8:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.
Replies: 1220
Views: 108045

Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

OP did the smart thing. Same thing I should have done if not listened to Boglehead brainless dogma. This time it actually was 100% (not 99%, 100%) clear what was going to happen once cases outside China started popping up and China went full lockdown. It's not brainless. It's good advice the vast, ...
by Vision
Sat Mar 21, 2020 8:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are current recession's comparisons to Great Depression doomer tier, accurate or understated?
Replies: 112
Views: 9185

Re: Are current recession's comparisons to Great Depression doomer tier, accurate or understated?

Understandable, but a recession will last like what? ... 2-8 years most likely? And you still get dividend during that period. So, after the 2001 crash it took 10 years to get back to the starting point - with dividends. And if we enter a period of secular stagnation - then what? Low productivity g...
by Vision
Sat Mar 21, 2020 8:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.
Replies: 1220
Views: 108045

Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

OP did the smart thing.

Same thing I should have done if not listened to Boglehead brainless dogma.

This time it actually was 100% (not 99%, 100%) clear what was going to happen once cases outside China started popping up and China went full lockdown.
by Vision
Sat Mar 21, 2020 8:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are current recession's comparisons to Great Depression doomer tier, accurate or understated?
Replies: 112
Views: 9185

Re: Are current recession's comparisons to Great Depression doomer tier, accurate or understated?

No, but there was a fair amount of evidence that the market was overvalued and that we are entering a period of secular stagnation. The virus just pricked the bubble. It might be like WWI. The killing of a grand duke dis not cause the war, it was just the spark that caused all if the other causes t...
by Vision
Sat Mar 21, 2020 8:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are current recession's comparisons to Great Depression doomer tier, accurate or understated?
Replies: 112
Views: 9185

Re: Are current recession's comparisons to Great Depression doomer tier, accurate or understated?

A virus will create a 30+ year bear market? No, but there was a fair amount of evidence that the market was overvalued and that we are entering a period of secular stagnation. The virus just pricked the bubble. It might be like WWI. The killing of a grand duke dis not cause the war, it was just the...
by Vision
Sat Mar 21, 2020 8:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are current recession's comparisons to Great Depression doomer tier, accurate or understated?
Replies: 112
Views: 9185

Re: Are current recession's comparisons to Great Depression doomer tier, accurate or understated?

A virus will create a 30+ year bear market? No, but there was a fair amount of evidence that the market was overvalued and that we are entering a period of secular stagnation. The virus just pricked the bubble. It might be like WWI. The killing of a grand duke dis not cause the war, it was just the...
by Vision
Sat Mar 21, 2020 7:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are current recession's comparisons to Great Depression doomer tier, accurate or understated?
Replies: 112
Views: 9185

Re: Are current recession's comparisons to Great Depression doomer tier, accurate or understated?

I am not trying to suggest that things were worse and that we should expect to do better today.
Why not? It seems like things were objectively worse by every metric. Why can't you make that suggestion? Isn't it objectively clear?
by Vision
Sat Mar 21, 2020 7:51 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: I knew this was going to happen and did nothing...
Replies: 107
Views: 10152

Re: I knew this was going to happen and did nothing...

Just kind of venting here - I was absolutely, 100% certain this was going to happen by mid February. The reason is that I watched 'The Stand' on TV when I was 9 and it put a fascination/fear of pandemics deep in my heart, so I was following the news coming out of China very, very early on. However ...
by Vision
Sat Mar 21, 2020 7:45 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: I knew this was going to happen and did nothing...
Replies: 107
Views: 10152

Re: I knew this was going to happen and did nothing...

I agree with the folks that are saying you actually did the right thing by not selling stocks. I've tried to do this and failed. The key is knowing when to buy back in and that is hard to do. If you wait until averages return to where you sold, you actually did not "gain" anything by selling. Also,...
by Vision
Sat Mar 21, 2020 7:16 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: I knew this was going to happen and did nothing...
Replies: 107
Views: 10152

Re: I knew this was going to happen and did nothing...

Just kind of venting here - I was absolutely, 100% certain this was going to happen by mid February. The reason is that I watched 'The Stand' on TV when I was 9 and it put a fascination/fear of pandemics deep in my heart, so I was following the news coming out of China very, very early on. However ...
by Vision
Sat Mar 21, 2020 7:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are current recession's comparisons to Great Depression doomer tier, accurate or understated?
Replies: 112
Views: 9185

Are current recession's comparisons to Great Depression doomer tier, accurate or understated?

Keep reading from doomers how this will be "worse than Great Depression". Do you think that is accurate? A virus will create a 30+ year bear market? What about Fed not having to rely on gold and having options to print money and inject in economy? What about remote online work? What about current cu...
by Vision
Fri Mar 20, 2020 3:02 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Just pulled the trigger ...
Replies: 51
Views: 4749

Re: Just pulled the trigger ...

Momus wrote:
Fri Mar 20, 2020 2:08 pm
The bottom is here.
by Vision
Fri Mar 20, 2020 2:57 pm
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: EU citizen, US broker, what bonds to choose?
Replies: 10
Views: 497

Re: EU citizen, US broker, what bonds to choose?

DJN wrote:
Fri Mar 20, 2020 8:25 am
HI,
very difficult to be specific without knowing your tax residence.
DJN
EU should say enough.
EUR currency
by Vision
Fri Mar 20, 2020 6:20 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: EU citizen, US broker, what bonds to choose?
Replies: 10
Views: 497

Re: EU citizen, US broker, what bonds to choose?

BNDX is definitely hedged to the USD so wouldn't that still be currency risk for the OP? BNDW holds 50% BNDX it seems and seems to closely track an index that is hedged. I don't see how BNDX is any different than BND [except that inflation has tended (in the past at least) to be a little more local...
by Vision
Thu Mar 19, 2020 3:34 pm
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: EU citizen, US broker, what bonds to choose?
Replies: 10
Views: 497

EU citizen, US broker, what bonds to choose?

I am EU citizen.

I have US broker.

Was told to buy bonds along with stocks.

But then I was told that buying US bond index will expose me to currency risk.

So what is the solution if right now I'm forced to us US broker?

Should I be buying stuff like BND or not?
by Vision
Thu Mar 19, 2020 1:49 pm
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: What happens to my stocks if my [US-based] broker goes bust?
Replies: 5
Views: 530

What happens to my stocks if my [US-based] broker goes bust?

EU guy here holding stocks in ETFs at US based SIPC insured broker. If there is systemic meltdown of entire system and my broker goes bust - how do I get to keep my ETFs? What kind of system is there in place? What if SIPC goes bust? And secondly - what about bank accounts? If I am EU citizen holdin...
by Vision
Thu Mar 19, 2020 10:19 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Is this solid DCA strategy for cash deployment into world index during this bear market?
Replies: 16
Views: 839

Re: Is this solid DCA strategy for cash deployment into world index during this bear market?

At this pace your DCA looks a lot like a lump sum investment. But this has given me some guidelines and allowed me to take advantage of dips. Seriously ?? I know I am extremely lucky to have timed it like this and to have started DCA two months before this all happened, as well as getting new cash....