Search found 564 matches

by CantPassAgain
Fri Aug 10, 2018 6:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Valuations Too High?
Replies: 229
Views: 14414

Re: Larry Swedroe: Valuations Too High?

This all boils down to "tactical asset allocation" ie "market timing" despite the gobledygook double-talk from various posters. If that floats some peoples boat that's fine, but for God's sake quit denying it. I've heard tell of so-called tactical allocation funds from days gone by. Funny they aren'...
by CantPassAgain
Fri Aug 10, 2018 2:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Valuations Too High?
Replies: 229
Views: 14414

Re: Larry Swedroe: Valuations Too High?

Interesting and well thought out article. Several observations/questions: 1) I breath a sigh of relief to see a tempered voice recognizing that, of course, valuations matter. For anyone taking the time to actually study the data, instead of just responding to sound-bytes, its ludicrous to suggest o...
by CantPassAgain
Thu Aug 09, 2018 9:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Valuations Too High?
Replies: 229
Views: 14414

Re: Larry Swedroe: Valuations Too High?

Of course? Why do you believe buy-and-hold will deliver? Because when you are investing in public common stocks you are investing in enterprises that are attempting to be productive and profitable for their shareholders by offering products and services that are meant to improve lives and increase ...
by CantPassAgain
Thu Aug 09, 2018 9:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Valuations Too High?
Replies: 229
Views: 14414

Re: Larry Swedroe: Valuations Too High?

Of course? Why do you believe buy-and-hold will deliver? Because when you are investing in public common stocks you are investing in enterprises that are attempting to be productive and profitable for their shareholders by offering products and services that are meant to improve lives and increase ...
by CantPassAgain
Wed Aug 08, 2018 11:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If it were March, 2000, would you still allocate 50% to Stocks?
Replies: 94
Views: 4755

Re: If it were March, 2000, would you still allocate 50% to Stocks?

Dude2 wrote:
Wed Aug 08, 2018 10:50 pm
I just wish that the OP of this thread and the OP of the thread about why ever own a bond could get into the octagon and work it out.
I would prefer the thunderdome. Except two men enter, none leave.
by CantPassAgain
Wed Aug 08, 2018 9:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If it were March, 2000, would you still allocate 50% to Stocks?
Replies: 94
Views: 4755

Re: If it were March, 2000, would you still allocate 50% to Stocks?

I was 100% in stocks in 2000 and almost all of that was in booming tech stocks. It was quite unpleasant to put it mildly and I was retired at the time without an income stream. Pain like that teaches lessons that you don't forget. I learned that balanced portfolios aren't just for sissies especiall...
by CantPassAgain
Wed Aug 08, 2018 8:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Valuations Too High?
Replies: 229
Views: 14414

Re: Larry Swedroe: Valuations Too High?

Does CAPE10 account for changes in the way earnings are reported due to changes in US GAAP accounting rules over the last 30 years? Doing away with depreciating goodwill was a big one. I'm sure there are several others. Does it also adjust for recent tax law changes? What about changes in demographi...
by CantPassAgain
Wed Aug 08, 2018 8:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: (NEW) WisdomTree 90/60 U.S. Balanced Fund
Replies: 141
Views: 9275

Re: (NEW) WisdomTree 90/60 U.S. Balanced Fund

So I've never been very good with derivatives. This fund is using futures contracts in order to try to beat the market return. If it works, and the fund "wins" by beating the market return, who is the party that "loses"? I'm guessing the counterparties on the other side of the futures contracts. Yes...
by CantPassAgain
Wed Aug 08, 2018 3:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If it were March, 2000, would you still allocate 50% to Stocks?
Replies: 94
Views: 4755

Re: If it were March, 2000, would you still allocate 50% to Stocks?

reformed.trader wrote:
Wed Aug 08, 2018 3:27 pm
Is the OP saying you should go from US stocks to cash or bonds? Or is he simply saying why buy US when you can buy EM or other cheaper countries?
I suspect he doesn't know or hasn't thought about it, and that the contributions thus far are meant primarily to generate responses (well done, op).
by CantPassAgain
Wed Aug 08, 2018 3:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Don't Obsess About Expense Ratios"
Replies: 240
Views: 21679

Re: "Don't Obsess About Expense Ratios"

Pre-Fidelity announcement: "Lowest expense ratio possible is essential!" Post-Fidelity announcement: "Actually, don't worry about them! Stay with Vanguard!" That's a rather uncharitable knee-jerk reaction. It's more like: "Pre-fidelity announcement: "Keep costs low. Instead of that 1.5% actively ma...
by CantPassAgain
Wed Aug 08, 2018 2:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If it were March, 2000, would you still allocate 50% to Stocks?
Replies: 94
Views: 4755

Re: If it were March, 2000, would you still allocate 50% to Stocks?

And I've yet to hear a compelling argument why anyone would possibly invest in the SP500 at today's valuation level. Really? No one has used the words "long-term investment" yet? I could have sworn I saw those words already. Can you give me a compelling argument why anyone would have possibly inves...
by CantPassAgain
Wed Aug 08, 2018 2:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fidelity Files for Four Fidelity ZERO℠ Funds (0.00% ER)
Replies: 753
Views: 73891

Re: Fidelity Files for two Fidelity ZERO℠ Funds (0.00% ER total stock and total international mutual funds)

Thanks. I will be waiting a month, maybe 3. I transferred my USAA taxable account to Vanguard last year, that resulted in a ~$1400 capital gains tax payment. Since then, it has been in VTSAX, with about $7600 in gains, so that would result in a ~$2000 capital gains tax payment if I sell this to mov...
by CantPassAgain
Wed Aug 08, 2018 2:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If it were March, 2000, would you still allocate 50% to Stocks?
Replies: 94
Views: 4755

Re: If it were March, 2000, would you still allocate 50% to Stocks?

HomerJ wrote:
Wed Aug 08, 2018 2:25 pm
(It also doesn't faze me, because someone JUST as sure as you are today showed up here in 2014, 2015, 2016, and 2017 screaming "Guys, guys! The market is likely to crash soon!")
You forgot 2010, 2011, 2012, and 2013.
by CantPassAgain
Wed Aug 08, 2018 1:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If it were March, 2000, would you still allocate 50% to Stocks?
Replies: 94
Views: 4755

Re: If it were March, 2000, would you still allocate 50% to Stocks?

OP, your example seems to be about someone having all the money they will ever have to invest at one time and deciding when to invest it all. Does that seem realistic to you? Most folks invest over many, many years. How does your scenario work out if someone invests throughout the time period you'r...
by CantPassAgain
Wed Aug 08, 2018 11:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Age in Bonds" fails almost everyone
Replies: 217
Views: 13888

Re: "Age in Bonds" fails almost everyone

Ahh, young people, they can be so sure of themselves. It's adorable when they try to lecture.
by CantPassAgain
Wed Aug 08, 2018 11:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If it were March, 2000, would you still allocate 50% to Stocks?
Replies: 94
Views: 4755

Re: If it were March, 2000, would you still allocate 50% to Stocks?

The real problem here with your thinking is that you’re viewing this as a black-white problem where you’re betting all 50% on one particular market and its current high price. Markets can always go higher when they’re expensive and can always go lower when they’re depressed and cheap. A diversified...
by CantPassAgain
Wed Aug 08, 2018 11:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If it were March, 2000, would you still allocate 50% to Stocks?
Replies: 94
Views: 4755

Re: If it were March, 2000, would you still allocate 50% to Stocks?

For instance, if you had invested $1 in the equivalent of the SP500 in August 1929, (after adjusting for inflation and reinvested dividends), the purchasing power of your investment almost 20 years later in May 1949 would still only be ~$1. That's ZERO real growth in almost 20 years. The haystack d...
by CantPassAgain
Tue Aug 07, 2018 4:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Don't Obsess About Expense Ratios"
Replies: 240
Views: 21679

Re: "Don't Obsess About Expense Ratios"

All you people "calling out" Taylor need to get a grip. Yes, costs matter, but have you done the math on the $ difference between a few basis points? Being out of the market for one day of normal volatility could wipe out 20 years of whatever benefit you might get between moving from a 0.05% ER fund...
by CantPassAgain
Tue Aug 07, 2018 4:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Age in Bonds" fails almost everyone
Replies: 217
Views: 13888

Re: "Age in Bonds" fails almost everyone

This vineviz person just joined the forum in mid-May and, as of this morning, has already made more than 800 posts. I hope s/he's remembering to eat and sleep. :) Every once in a while someone will show up out of nowhere and carpet bomb the forum with hundreds/thousands of posts in a very short amo...
by CantPassAgain
Mon Aug 06, 2018 4:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Growth Funds
Replies: 5
Views: 426

Re: Growth Funds

JC565, it looks like you have been a member here for a while but for whatever reason have not yet groked what this place is really about. I have read a few of your previous posts and I think maybe starting from square one might be a good idea. So, first I will give you a belated welcome to the forum...
by CantPassAgain
Sat Jul 28, 2018 1:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Direct Real Estate Returns
Replies: 361
Views: 17233

Re: Direct Real Estate Returns

Edit. Never mind, no real point
by CantPassAgain
Thu Jul 26, 2018 1:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Direct Real Estate Returns
Replies: 361
Views: 17233

Re: Direct Real Estate Returns

I think it's important to point out in the case of an "emergency".. the index investor liquidates $100K and has to pay 15-38% tax on it, even more if it's in a tax sheltered account. The cash flow that my rentals throw off has been TAX FREE since I started renting out my first space. I carry a $100...
by CantPassAgain
Thu Jul 26, 2018 1:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Best source for simple market news?
Replies: 26
Views: 2258

Re: Best source for simple market news?

acegolfer wrote:
Thu Jul 26, 2018 7:23 am
wsj.com > Markets > 1st article > the 1st 2-3 paragraphs
Yep. Also: reuters.com. Front page
by CantPassAgain
Wed Jul 25, 2018 3:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Direct Real Estate Returns
Replies: 361
Views: 17233

Re: Direct Real Estate Returns

EDIT: Can you value the business you work at Corn? Not sure if you have access to that information. Sometimes being a business owner and experiencing how a business works -- cash needs -- etc helps one to learn how to value a business (this isn't always the case). I can't find the quote but someone...
by CantPassAgain
Wed Jul 25, 2018 1:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Direct Real Estate Returns
Replies: 361
Views: 17233

Re: Direct Real Estate Returns

Someone has thought his whole life (via indoctrination by the media, news, banks, Wall Street, and politicians) that the best way to retire comfortably is to invest in index funds... lol wut. Also, I think most would agree that the best path to a comfortable retirement is to find something you are ...
by CantPassAgain
Wed Jul 25, 2018 9:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Direct Real Estate Returns
Replies: 361
Views: 17233

Re: Direct Real Estate Returns

Is it a meaningful term. The quotes don't make sense. Real estate pays you in cash flow, capital appreciation, amortization/principal paydown, force value, inflation hedging/profiting, depreciation, net tax benefit. Equities pays you in capital appreciation and a 1.5-2.5% dividend, which is quite l...
by CantPassAgain
Tue Jul 24, 2018 2:48 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Which doctor should I go to?
Replies: 26
Views: 1824

Re: Which doctor should I go to?

OP hasn't responded, clearly he/she didn't do anything and has now died of food poisoning. Shame on you all.
by CantPassAgain
Tue Jul 24, 2018 10:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I don’t understand the concept of cost of equity
Replies: 26
Views: 2259

Re: I don’t understand the concept of cost of equity

1. cost of equity is the cost to the issuer (=firms). It's not the cost to the investor (who funds the firms). 2. a firm's equity needs to pay enough return to the investors. Otherwise (risk-free rate in OP example), then investors will not fund the firm because equity is inherently riskier than de...
by CantPassAgain
Fri Jul 20, 2018 11:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Direct Real Estate Returns
Replies: 361
Views: 17233

Re: Direct Real Estate Returns

The error in this thread is comparing leveraged real estate returns to un-leveraged equity returns. The 38% figure cited earlier is for real estate that is 5X leveraged. If you leverage the S&P 500 5X, you would get an average return of something like 55%. Thus, the 38% figure is real, as a leverag...
by CantPassAgain
Thu Jul 19, 2018 11:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Direct Real Estate Returns
Replies: 361
Views: 17233

Re: Direct Real Estate Returns

I calculate IRRs for a living. For any investment, IRR (Internal Rate of Return) and NPV (Net Present Value) are the two definitive metrics for deciding to invest or not. Its very easy to calculate in MS Excel. Decide on the life of the building (IRS defines life of residential building as 27.5 yea...
by CantPassAgain
Thu Jul 19, 2018 11:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Direct Real Estate Returns
Replies: 361
Views: 17233

Re: Direct Real Estate Returns

The relevant question for an investor is how much he has been able to put in his pocket from the day he purchased the property through day he finally disposed of it. That is going to be the same amount whether he puts down 10% or 20%. say what There is only one profit to be made per property. How s...
by CantPassAgain
Thu Jul 19, 2018 11:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Direct Real Estate Returns
Replies: 361
Views: 17233

Re: Direct Real Estate Returns

The relevant question for an investor is how much he has been able to put in his pocket from the day he purchased the property through day he finally disposed of it. That is going to be the same amount whether he puts down 10% or 20%. say what There is only one profit to be made per property. How so?
by CantPassAgain
Thu Jul 19, 2018 11:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Direct Real Estate Returns
Replies: 361
Views: 17233

Re: Direct Real Estate Returns

gmaynardkrebs wrote:
Thu Jul 19, 2018 10:13 pm
The relevant question for an investor is how much he has been able to put in his pocket from the day he purchased the property through day he finally disposed of it. That is going to be the same amount whether he puts down 10% or 20%.
say what
by CantPassAgain
Thu Jul 19, 2018 4:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Direct Real Estate Returns
Replies: 361
Views: 17233

Re: Direct Real Estate Returns

Next to owning a dog, I'd say that IRR is the best way to make yourself feel like a master of the universe for doing absolutely nothing. Internal rate of return is the most comprehensive, honest way to report investment returns. What is the: A) Date and amount of the beginning investment B) What we...
by CantPassAgain
Wed Jul 18, 2018 11:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Direct Real Estate Returns
Replies: 361
Views: 17233

Re: Direct Real Estate Returns

I have never done the house-hack but I did live in a place that I later turned into a rental. Bought the place with a $30K down payment (even though VA loan). The property produces $12K of rental income per year like clockwork, plus an additional $4K due to a 100% passive investment I arbitraged us...
by CantPassAgain
Wed Jul 11, 2018 4:45 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What rate of return are you using for retirement projections?
Replies: 99
Views: 9983

Re: What rate of return are you using for retirement projections?

Whichever one gets me to a million dollars at age 55.
by CantPassAgain
Tue Jul 03, 2018 8:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "homemade dividends" from Total Stock Market fund
Replies: 135
Views: 9490

Re: "homemade dividends" from Total Stock Market fund

Profitability and increasing earnings retained in the business (equity) would cause a stocks price to increase in a rational market. In other words, a rational player would see that out of two identical companies with the same future earnings prospects and identical balance sheets except for cash/re...
by CantPassAgain
Thu Jun 28, 2018 8:50 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Stocks vs. rental property
Replies: 101
Views: 10800

Re: Stocks vs. rental property

I grew up in SF, lived there for 35 years, own rental property there, my parents owned several rental properties -- so I know all about what kind of stuff we had to do to stretch to make it happen. This is the reason why your posts sound like "Trump University get rich quick as real estate magnate"...
by CantPassAgain
Wed Jun 27, 2018 2:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Stocks vs. rental property
Replies: 101
Views: 10800

Re: Stocks vs. rental property

The problem with this debate, which has already been stated, is that it is apples to nuts. The above "80x return > 15x return" is completely missing why *MOST* people buy real estate. That return is purely based on appreciation. Most people buy rental properties for 1) cash flow and 2) have someone...
by CantPassAgain
Tue Jun 26, 2018 2:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Stocks vs. rental property
Replies: 101
Views: 10800

Re: Stocks vs. rental property

If you had bought in Southern California in 1989, you would in most cases not have seen your house return to the price you bought it at for almost 10 years. Meanwhile, your stock portfolio (S&P500) would have more than tripled. And in the middle of this, around 1992-4, you would be under your origi...
by CantPassAgain
Sun Jun 10, 2018 11:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buffett says Bonds are a terrible investment now. What should we invest in besides stocks?
Replies: 150
Views: 23724

Re: Buffett says Bonds are a terrible investment now. What should we invest in besides stocks?

I'm not sure why either. I've been trying to understand for nearly a year on this forum. The minds on this forum are very bright, much smarter than me. I have learned a ton in a short time. But people on here will insist to invest in inferior assets by nearly every single metric except liquidity. T...
by CantPassAgain
Sat Jun 09, 2018 8:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buffett says Bonds are a terrible investment now. What should we invest in besides stocks?
Replies: 150
Views: 23724

Re: Buffett says Bonds are a terrible investment now. What should we invest in besides stocks?

I'm not sure why either. I've been trying to understand for nearly a year on this forum. The minds on this forum are very bright, much smarter than me. I have learned a ton in a short time. But people on here will insist to invest in inferior assets by nearly every single metric except liquidity. T...
by CantPassAgain
Thu Jun 07, 2018 4:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: which vanguard funds for my situation?
Replies: 7
Views: 616

Re: which vanguard funds for my situation?

I've read through most of the wiki here and found no specific recommendation of the mutual funds to pick in vanguard. I have about 33k in a Roth IRA, 29 years old, like to retire at 50, not very risk averse. Right now all my money is in the 2055 retirement fund. I'm wondering if there's a better al...
by CantPassAgain
Thu Jun 07, 2018 1:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help me pick my vanguard investment
Replies: 39
Views: 1993

Re: Help me pick my vanguard investment

Maybe you need to back up and examine why you want the "highest possible return," and understand that higher return always means higher risk of not getting those returns and falling short of your goals. Shooting for the moon is great when you win. When you lose it can be ruinous. It seems like you w...
by CantPassAgain
Thu Jun 07, 2018 10:35 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help me pick my vanguard investment
Replies: 39
Views: 1993

Re: Help me pick my vanguard investment

That answers a question, but SCV is not a choice for me. The 4 funds listed are the choice so if you had to pick the most aggressive package using only the 4 funds what would it be? I know this is only an educated opinion, not gospel. Is 100% small cap index close enough to value? Probably. Just kn...
by CantPassAgain
Thu Jun 07, 2018 10:18 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help me pick my vanguard investment
Replies: 39
Views: 1993

Re: Help me pick my vanguard investment

I know using past performance to predict the future is almost a no no but doesn't 20 years worth of data have to count for something? It's not like a new fund is made 2 years ago and makes large amounts of interest in that time on a hot sector fund and you jump on it when the money is already been ...
by CantPassAgain
Wed Jun 06, 2018 6:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Just added bonds to portfolio
Replies: 44
Views: 3306

Re: Just added bonds to portfolio

I'm getting married next month and last week the fiancee and I decided to set a combined investment plan. Up until recently, we had just been investing in 100% equities with no real plan, and decided that it might be smart to move to a 50% domestic stock (VTSAX), 35% international stock (VTIAX), 15...
by CantPassAgain
Wed Jun 06, 2018 4:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Should I put some money aside in money market for market correction
Replies: 94
Views: 7600

Re: Should I put some money aside in money market for market correction

Great point. In January the S&P edged higher than it is today, so the dollar cost averagers essentially made nothing since the market corrected their January/early February injections. So if you put money aside for the correction instead and purchased on March 23rd, you would be up 7.1% or 34.61% a...
by CantPassAgain
Wed Jun 06, 2018 4:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Should I put some money aside in money market for market correction
Replies: 94
Views: 7600

Re: Should I put some money aside in money market for market correction

I didn't tell you IN January. I told you that AFTER January the markets would continue to cool off for a couple of months since I told you this. Maybe you could provide the link (or even date) of the post where you said that after January the markets would cool off for a couple of months? Which mon...
by CantPassAgain
Wed Jun 06, 2018 4:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Should I put some money aside in money market for market correction
Replies: 94
Views: 7600

Re: Should I put some money aside in money market for market correction

But no need to go to great lengths to convince or impress. Almost every single one of your posts mentions your $10 million NW, and how smart you are. you doth protest too much, methinks. Look, all you are doing is making yourself LESS credible. Trying making some predictions in advance instead of t...