Search found 74 matches

by D-Dog
Tue Dec 31, 2019 2:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Utilities - worth another look?
Replies: 172
Views: 15650

Re: Utilities - worth another look?

If someone figures out a more rigorous, generic solution to this problem of RSU risk I bet you could do pretty well as an investment advisor in silicon valley. Perhaps some form of income pooling? I think some professional athletes and poker players do this. If there are a lot of people who don’t w...
by D-Dog
Mon Nov 18, 2019 9:17 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Will we be OK at 3% WR?
Replies: 342
Views: 25645

Re: Will we be OK at 3% WR?

2. Again the embedded assumption here seems that the very long term expected return must be the long term past average return. Without a good explanation why that's so, there's no particular reason to think the indefinite term expected return is any higher (or lower) than the earnings yield now (gi...
by D-Dog
Sat Nov 16, 2019 12:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Withdrawing from deferred income plan
Replies: 7
Views: 712

Re: Withdrawing from deferred income plan

What I am considering is to change all my past (and future) distribution elections to lump sum. This simplifies my withdrawals and if I want to push anything out down the road, I only have to change one year's election. Basically, bite the bullet now and simplify. In my deferred comp plan I can pus...
by D-Dog
Fri Nov 08, 2019 11:42 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Will we be OK at 3% WR?
Replies: 342
Views: 25645

Re: Will we be OK at 3% WR?

Average market returns mean absolutely nothing for the purpose of calculating historic safe withdrawal rates. Nothing . For instance, returns from 2017 do not enter into the calculation of the SWR for the 1966-1995 period. So you need to purge that idea from your thinking. Maybe you skipped where I...
by D-Dog
Wed Oct 30, 2019 7:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to diversify a Three Fund Portfolio in 8 steps
Replies: 66
Views: 5346

Re: How to diversify a Three Fund Portfolio in 8 steps

Challenge to OP - can you get 80% of the optimisation with no more than 5 funds? Just guessing, how about these five: VFMF - vanguard multi factor VMVFX - vanguard Global Min vol VWO - vanguard emerg mkts EDV - vanguard extended dur treasury VWOB - vanguard emerg mkt bond Seems to capture a lot of ...
by D-Dog
Sun Oct 27, 2019 2:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Optimal asset allocation strategies for retirement & saving
Replies: 45
Views: 7835

Re: Optimal asset allocation strategies for retirement & saving

I'd like to see some examples of applying your variable asset allocation to some historical data using a 4% SWR and 30 year retirement. Take some of the worst starting retirement years (1929, 1966, etc.) and show how your strategy's asset allocation would have changed for each year of retirement, f...
by D-Dog
Sun Oct 27, 2019 11:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Optimal asset allocation strategies for retirement & saving
Replies: 45
Views: 7835

Re: Optimal asset allocation strategies for retirement & saving

I'd like to see some examples of applying your variable asset allocation to some historical data using a 4% SWR and 30 year retirement. Take some of the worst starting retirement years (1929, 1966, etc.) and show how your strategy's asset allocation would have changed for each year of retirement, f...
by D-Dog
Sat Oct 26, 2019 8:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Optimal asset allocation strategies for retirement & saving
Replies: 45
Views: 7835

Re: Optimal asset allocation strategies for retirement & saving

Please ask me if you would like to see simulations for different goals or different assumptions. Very interesting work. You've obviously put a lot of time into this. I'm subscribing to this topic, and am interested to see other's reactions. I read your post through once and think I will need to rea...
by D-Dog
Sat Oct 26, 2019 4:36 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Retire at 50(ish) possible?
Replies: 38
Views: 6054

Re: Retire at 50(ish) possible?

There is a CD thread running now, that can get you even more! I just don't understand this thinking. Not sure I follow, you're implying that 3.5% is too low or too high? [/quote] I am saying you could almost get your desired annual income on your money with a risk free CD. I am asking, why withdraw...
by D-Dog
Sat Aug 31, 2019 1:55 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Protecting ourselves from sequence of returns risk
Replies: 69
Views: 5088

Re: Protecting ourselves from sequence of returns risk

Dear Vineviz, You attribute your own made-up definition to " sequence of returns risk ", a definition that differs from the widely accepted definition , and then you claim that VPW is vulnerable to it. I have never claimed that VPW withdrawal amounts weren't affected by low returns. On the contrary...
by D-Dog
Tue Aug 27, 2019 8:07 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Which 403(b) vendor?
Replies: 2
Views: 192

Which 403(b) vendor?

My wife has a new 403(b) available with a long list of approved vendors, including Fidelity, Vanguard, Ameriprise, etc. Any thoughts on which 403(b) vendors are the best? If it matters, we already have taxable accounts, IRAs, and 529s with Vanguard, and we have a 401(k) and ESPP with Fidelity. Thanks!
by D-Dog
Wed Jul 31, 2019 10:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A low-cost 5 fund Boglehead portfolio
Replies: 116
Views: 19949

Re: A low-cost 5 fund Boglehead portfolio

I'm frequently asked, sometimes by private message, if it's possible to build a low-cost portfolio that is both consistent with the Bogleheads investment philosophy (e.g. simplicity, low-cost, broadly diversified, etc.) and makes use of advances in financial research that have taken place over the ...
by D-Dog
Fri Jul 26, 2019 6:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: De-Risking and Diversification aren't the same thing.
Replies: 106
Views: 9039

Re: De-Risking and Diversification aren't the same thing.

Putting more faith in additional estimates (such as correlation) vs not putting faith in those estimates, certainly seems to increase model risk . I don't know what "faith" has to do with anything, but I do know that if the financial and statistical relationships that drive diversification suddenly...
by D-Dog
Thu Jul 25, 2019 12:37 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: For those who include international bonds, do you use hedged or unhedged?
Replies: 10
Views: 667

Re: For those who include international bonds, do you use hedged or unhedged?

Would unhedged international bond funds provide more diversification than hedged? They seem to be less correlated with many of the standard asset classes. I use unhedged for the following reasons: - its generally cheaper for the fund (hedges cost money) - more diversification (almost everything els...
by D-Dog
Thu Jul 25, 2019 12:34 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: For those who include international bonds, do you use hedged or unhedged?
Replies: 10
Views: 667

Re: For those who include international bonds, do you use hedged or unhedged?

Would unhedged international bond funds provide more diversification than hedged? They seem to be less correlated with many of the standard asset classes. You'd have to compare that with currency funds. i.e. the unhedged bond fund with a money market fund that invests in different currencies and is...
by D-Dog
Thu Jul 25, 2019 11:00 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: For those who include international bonds, do you use hedged or unhedged?
Replies: 10
Views: 667

Re: For those who include international bonds, do you use hedged or unhedged?

Would unhedged international bond funds provide more diversification than hedged? They seem to be less correlated with many of the standard asset classes.
by D-Dog
Sun Jul 21, 2019 6:04 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: For those who include international bonds, do you use hedged or unhedged?
Replies: 10
Views: 667

For those who include international bonds, do you use hedged or unhedged?

For those who include (or believe in including) international bonds in a portfolio, do you use funds that hedge currency risk or not, and why? If you use unhedged, what specific unhedged funds would you recommend?
by D-Dog
Sun Jul 21, 2019 10:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Optimized Roth Conversion Model
Replies: 39
Views: 5281

Re: Optimized Roth Conversion Model

The size of the model exceed the capability of the standard excel "solver" add-in; formality there is a good GNU "freeware" add in called "OpenSolver" (https://opensolver.org/) that can handle a model of this size (it ended up having 2022 variables with 2580 constraints). Nice work building the mod...
by D-Dog
Tue Jul 02, 2019 3:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Simple Bogleheads Retirement Using Variable Percentage Withdrawals (VPW Forward Test)
Replies: 170
Views: 32703

Re: A Simple Bogleheads Retirement Using Variable Percentage Withdrawals (VPW Forward Test)

I'm thinking that I could develop an easy-to-use monthly silos spreadsheet that automatically calculates individual silo balances and distributes interest across them, so that the money is actually kept into a single high-interest savings account. It seems like there is a simpler way to accomplish ...
by D-Dog
Wed Jun 19, 2019 10:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Utilities - worth another look?
Replies: 172
Views: 15650

Re: Utilities - worth another look?

What if instead of VPU (utilities etf) we used one utility stock. NextEra (NEE) is the largest holding in VPU. Consider this portfolio: 50% VTI / 50% NEE According to portfolio visualizer, NEE and VTI have a correlation of 0.4. Therefore, the above portfolio should be objectively more diversified t...
by D-Dog
Wed Jun 19, 2019 6:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Utilities - worth another look?
Replies: 172
Views: 15650

Re: Utilities - worth another look?

No, B is objectively concentrated in Utilities. I don't see how that meets any common sense definition of "diversified". I'm sorry that you don't see it. There are several threads on diversification on this board that might explain it in a way that makes sense to you, so you might start by searchin...
by D-Dog
Sun Jun 16, 2019 10:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Utilities - worth another look?
Replies: 172
Views: 15650

Re: Utilities - worth another look?

That's a good observation. A similar logical issue occurs with risk parity. IMO this logical issue makes the diversification ratio less useful as an objective measurement of diversification, because the DR of TSM alone is 1, adding VPU increases the DR, but VPU is already part of TSM, so you are ad...
by D-Dog
Sun Jun 16, 2019 8:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Utilities - worth another look?
Replies: 172
Views: 15650

Re: Utilities - worth another look?

You did the math wrong. B and C should have the exact same diversification ratio. I don’t think so. Show me where the math is wrong. Portfolio B and C are different portfolios. Portfolio B: 50% TSM / 50% VPU Portfolio C: 50% Portfolio B / 50% VPU Or equivalently, Portfolio C: 25% TSM / 75% VPU Why ...
by D-Dog
Sun Jun 16, 2019 8:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Utilities - worth another look?
Replies: 172
Views: 15650

Re: Utilities - worth another look?

Removed
by D-Dog
Sun Jun 16, 2019 8:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Utilities - worth another look?
Replies: 172
Views: 15650

Re: Utilities - worth another look?

That's a good observation. A similar logical issue occurs with risk parity. IMO this logical issue makes the diversification ratio less useful as an objective measurement of diversification, because the DR of TSM alone is 1, adding VPU increases the DR, but VPU is already part of TSM, so you are ad...
by D-Dog
Sun Jun 16, 2019 7:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Utilities - worth another look?
Replies: 172
Views: 15650

Re: Utilities - worth another look?

That's a good observation. A similar logical issue occurs with risk parity. IMO this logical issue makes the diversification ratio less useful as an objective measurement of diversification, because the DR of TSM alone is 1, adding VPU increases the DR, but VPU is already part of TSM, so you are ad...
by D-Dog
Sat Jun 15, 2019 12:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Utilities - worth another look?
Replies: 172
Views: 15650

Re: Utilities - worth another look?

Portfolio A: 100% TSM Portfolio B: 50% TSM / 50% VPU (utilities) Is Portfolio B objectively more diversified? If so, how do you know? Is there a metric you look at to determine this? This is a serious question. I’ve been thinking a lot about diversification and I’m not sure how to measure it in a l...
by D-Dog
Sat Jun 15, 2019 9:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Utilities - worth another look?
Replies: 172
Views: 15650

Re: Utilities - worth another look?

Portfolio 2 is not better diversified. It is concentrated in utilities. The first sentence I quoted is objectively untrue, and the second sentence is a non sequitur. No point debating the former, as it just is what it is. Altering the weights of assets in a portfolio is precisely the mechanism by w...
by D-Dog
Fri Jun 14, 2019 10:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Utilities - worth another look?
Replies: 172
Views: 15650

Re: Utilities - worth another look?

You seem to be reflecting the widely held, but mistaken, belief that increasing the number of funds in a portfolio increases diversification. That would be absurd, which is why I never suggested any such thing. The number of funds is irrelevant. All that matters, as far as diversification goes, is ...
by D-Dog
Fri May 31, 2019 7:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2% withdrawal rate
Replies: 182
Views: 14222

Re: 2% withdrawal rate

I would feel about as safe with a 3% fixed percentage withdrawal as I would with a 2% fixed (real) dollar withdrawal. The benefit is that you would be able to withdraw more in favorable circumstances (i.e., portfolio doesn’t crash and there are no unusual large expenses). If stocks did crash by 50% ...
by D-Dog
Sun May 26, 2019 11:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Three assets all with negative correlations?
Replies: 18
Views: 1717

Re: Three assets all with negative correlations?

You are searching for what are called factors. No need to do the search from scratch unless you have billions to invest and can justify the expense. Nobel prize winners have done it for you. And people like Larry Swedroe have synthesized the results in understandable, actionable ways. I’m aware of ...
by D-Dog
Sat May 25, 2019 7:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Three assets all with negative correlations?
Replies: 18
Views: 1717

Re: Three assets all with negative correlations?

It seems like it should be theoretically possible to have three negatively correlated assets. Asset A returns: 1, -1, 0 Asset B returns: 0, 1, -1 Asset C returns: -1, 0, 1 I haven’t calculated it, but I think these would all be negatively correlated. Three negatively correlated assets just doesn’t s...
by D-Dog
Sat May 25, 2019 7:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Three assets all with negative correlations?
Replies: 18
Views: 1717

Three assets all with negative correlations?

It’s relatively easy to find two different assets that have historically had negative correlations. For example, VTSAX (total stock market) and EDV (long term treasuries). But I haven’t been able to find an example of three assets that have had mutually negative correlations. I’ve been using portfol...
by D-Dog
Mon Apr 01, 2019 9:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retirement Income Analysis by Bill Sharpe - FREE
Replies: 11
Views: 2368

Re: Retirement Income Analysis by Bill Sharpe - FREE

This looks like it might be interesting, but also very long and possibly very theoretical. Has anyone read this, or parts of it, already and found anything particularly useful? Perhaps some new insight or idea that has not been widely known or discussed that also has a practical application related ...
by D-Dog
Sat Jan 12, 2019 10:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Minimizing Current Income in Taxable Portfolio
Replies: 3
Views: 409

Minimizing Current Income in Taxable Portfolio

Is there a consensus on the best way to reduce modified adjusted gross income from a taxable portfolio while remaining broadly diversified in equities? Certain specific funds? Tax managed funds? Mutual funds vs. ETFs? I'm thinking the answer might be to just hold total stock market, but I'm not sure...
by D-Dog
Sun Dec 30, 2018 4:02 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Budgeting for unexpected and capital expenses in retirement
Replies: 15
Views: 1202

Budgeting for unexpected and capital expenses in retirement

In retirement, how do you budget for large unexpected expenses as well as capital expenses that happen occasionally? For unexpected expenses, I'm thinking of things like an adult child who needs financial help, a health care issue with large out of pocket costs, or a furnace that quits working. For ...
by D-Dog
Fri Dec 21, 2018 12:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Safe withdrawal rates and type of bonds
Replies: 4
Views: 405

Safe withdrawal rates and type of bonds

Has there been any analysis done on the impact of different types of bonds on safe withdrawal rates? Government vs. corporate, long vs. short, etc.? Historically speaking, what type or mix of bonds would be best for the bond allocation of a portfolio, if the goal is to maximize safe withdrawal rates?
by D-Dog
Sun Dec 02, 2018 12:03 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Cost basis methods at Vanguard
Replies: 9
Views: 1002

Re: Cost basis methods at Vanguard

What exactly are you trying to accomplish? You didn't say so in your post. Are you trying to get rid of the uncovered shares? You don't have to... When you convert to spec ID they basically get combined into one lot anyways, so it's just a single row in your cost basis next to all the covered lots....
by D-Dog
Sat Dec 01, 2018 4:00 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Cost basis methods at Vanguard
Replies: 9
Views: 1002

Cost basis methods at Vanguard

I have investments at Vanguard and have shares that were purchased before 2012 (i.e., noncovered) and after 2012 (i.e., covered). I don't have good records for the noncovered shares (and don't really want to figure it all out). I'm wondering if I can sell covered shares first using the specific iden...
by D-Dog
Sat Dec 01, 2018 3:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Using VPW when I need less than the recommended withdrawal
Replies: 3
Views: 482

Using VPW when I need less than the recommended withdrawal

I'm a VPW novice, so maybe this is a dumb question, but here goes. How should VPW be used if I need less than it says I should withdraw? At this point, I'm not looking for answers like "spend more" or "give the extra money away". Maybe down the road. For example, if it says I should withdraw 4% of m...
by D-Dog
Wed May 23, 2018 12:51 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Winter Home - issues/costs?
Replies: 33
Views: 2908

Winter Home - issues/costs?

We live in the northern US where the winters are cold and long. We love living there in the summer, but as I get older I'm finding the winters more unbearable. Once we retire, we are toying around with spending 2-3 month a year in the middle of winter in a warmer location, like AZ or FL, but keeping...
by D-Dog
Thu May 11, 2017 8:38 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Nonqualified Deferred Compensation distributions
Replies: 13
Views: 2580

Nonqualified Deferred Compensation distributions

For those who participate in nonqualified deferred compensation plans, how have you elected to take the distributions from the plan and what is your reasoning? I participate in one of these plans, and each year I need to elect how my contributions for that year will be distributed. The choices inclu...
by D-Dog
Mon Sep 21, 2015 4:24 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Big Expenses to Plan for in Retirement
Replies: 31
Views: 4128

Big Expenses to Plan for in Retirement

I'm trying to come up with a list of large, infrequent expenses that I might have in retirement. These could be unexpected events like a major illness, or known items that are infrequent that I just haven't yet thought of (like kids' weddings or new cars). I track my pre-retirement expenses, but ove...
by D-Dog
Thu Jul 09, 2015 10:09 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Buying Friend's House - what to do about agent's commission
Replies: 17
Views: 2657

Buying Friend's House - what to do about agent's commission

We've been working with a real estate agent off and on for about a year to find a house. The agent has done a good job but we just haven't found quite what we are looking for. Now a friend is selling their house without an agent and we really like the house. My agent hasn't done anything on this hou...
by D-Dog
Tue Mar 24, 2015 8:25 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: College Scholarships
Replies: 7
Views: 1144

College Scholarships

I'm currently contributing to 529 plans for two kids in middle school. I want to make sure I don't overfund the 529s while still taking advantage of the tax benefits as much as possible. I'm concerned that if my kids get scholarships, that could cause some money in the 529s to go unused, but I'm not...
by D-Dog
Tue May 28, 2013 12:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Japanese financial crisis
Replies: 48
Views: 5675

Japanese financial crisis

I'm interested in how a financial crisis in Japan could impact investments in various asset classes and countries.

Any thoughts?
by D-Dog
Thu Dec 08, 2011 10:36 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Favorite Podcasts
Replies: 42
Views: 5463

Favorite Podcasts

I've asked this before but it's been a couple years, so I'll ask again. What are you favorite podcasts? Here are a few of mine: Econ Talk Yale Open Courses Advantage Survival Podcast Brainstuff My History Can Beat Up Your Politics It's All Politics Planet Money Reef Threads Podcast Bloomberg Surveil...
by D-Dog
Wed Nov 09, 2011 10:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Preserving Wealth
Replies: 22
Views: 4016

Preserving Wealth

What would your financial plan and invest portfolio look like if your only goal was preserving existing wealth under a wide range of future scenarios (economic, political, etc.)?
by D-Dog
Thu Jan 28, 2010 2:34 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: using iPhone to access vanguard accounts
Replies: 4
Views: 1047

Thanks southerndoc.

If I use an iphone to log into my vanguard account, and then the iphone gets lost or stolen, do you know if any information remains on the phone that would allow someone to get at my accounts?
by D-Dog
Thu Jan 28, 2010 12:02 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: using iPhone to access vanguard accounts
Replies: 4
Views: 1047

using iPhone to access vanguard accounts

Is it safe to access Vanguad accounts from an iPhone if I use the vanguard application from the app store? What about accessing bank accounts from an iPhone? Would this in any way increase the chance of someone gaining access to my accounts? Thanks.