Search found 6943 matches

by jeffyscott
Fri Jul 20, 2018 3:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Direct Real Estate Returns
Replies: 219
Views: 9976

Re: Direct Real Estate Returns

I think what people are most objecting to is the claim that 38% returns are available to everyone everywhere. That is an average based on a highly leveraged investment. If it were a free lunch, hedge funds would be gobbling it up, driving the return down. And despite claims that once residential pr...
by jeffyscott
Fri Jul 20, 2018 11:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Direct Real Estate Returns
Replies: 219
Views: 9976

Re: Direct Real Estate Returns

So with 20% and above returns available as easy pickings in all times and places, why is it that iShares Residential Real Estate ETF (REZ) has a 10 year return of 9.38%? I know, it's not 100% residential REITs, but then why are the managers of these Residential REITS so dumb that they get returns l...
by jeffyscott
Fri Jul 20, 2018 11:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Direct Real Estate Returns
Replies: 219
Views: 9976

Re: Direct Real Estate Returns

That's quite true. I'll also admit that folks like me, who live in prosperous areas on the east and west coasts, often don't realize how it is in the midwest. I sure didn't, until I first visited my college student child in Chicago 3 years ago. I couldn't believe how cheap house/condo prices were c...
by jeffyscott
Fri Jul 20, 2018 10:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Direct Real Estate Returns
Replies: 219
Views: 9976

Re: Direct Real Estate Returns

So with 20% and above returns available as easy pickings in all times and places, why is it that iShares Residential Real Estate ETF (REZ) has a 10 year return of 9.38%? I know, it's not 100% residential REITs, but then why are the managers of these Residential REITS so dumb that they get returns le...
by jeffyscott
Fri Jul 20, 2018 10:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International Stocks in Taxable?
Replies: 34
Views: 2632

Re: International Stocks in Taxable?

Even with the foreign tax credit, it may be much more expensive to keep international in taxable depending on tax bracket due to the percentage of unqualified dividends thrown off. See: https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=242137. There’s a spreadsheet that you can plug your inputs into...
by jeffyscott
Fri Jul 20, 2018 9:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Some 'hints' about brokered CDs
Replies: 45
Views: 8819

Re: Some 'hints' about brokered CDs

Kevin M: Thanks for the reply! When I go to Vanguard and open up info about the WF CD, it shows: "CD snapshot...Research bonds and CDs Price $100.002" Also...before buying, the CD description page also showed a price of $100. When I went to buy, I had to enter the number of CDs that I wanted. I did...
by jeffyscott
Fri Jul 20, 2018 9:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Take Risk on Equity Side?
Replies: 78
Views: 5022

Re: Why Take Risk on Equity Side?

Isn't there at least a little exposure to HY Corporate Bonds in Vanguard's Total Bond Fund (e.g. BND)? Nope. Just look at the portfolio, 100% is in U.S. Government, Aaa, Aa, A, and Baa. The top 4 corporate bond ratings are considered to be investment grade. So there is no high yield, there is howev...
by jeffyscott
Thu Jul 19, 2018 9:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Take Risk on Equity Side?
Replies: 78
Views: 5022

Re: Why Take Risk on Equity Side?

My own view is that if you care more about portfolio efficiency than diversification, then stick with Treasuries. From a how-much-of-my-portfolio-could-theoretically-go-to-zero perspective, I prefer 50% Treasuries than 33%. If you care more about diversification, then include the HY bonds. Holding ...
by jeffyscott
Thu Jul 19, 2018 2:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Take Risk on Equity Side?
Replies: 78
Views: 5022

Re: Why Take Risk on Equity Side?

My understanding is that the true meaning of taking risk on equity side would mean investing only in equities and treasuries (maybe CDs also). This means excluding even investment grade corporate bonds. This view comes from the concept that all corporate bonds are effectively some sort of hybrid of ...
by jeffyscott
Wed Jul 18, 2018 4:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Classifying CDs as Bonds or Short Term assets
Replies: 12
Views: 1119

Re: Classifying CDs as Bonds or Short Term assets

I am trying to avoid bond funds that hold a lot of treasuries and so our other fixed income is mostly corporate, foreign, and floating rate bonds. For these I have 2 categories: "low duration bond funds" and "other bond funds". What's wrong with treasuries? Nothing, but I don't want them in tax def...
by jeffyscott
Wed Jul 18, 2018 1:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Classifying CDs as Bonds or Short Term assets
Replies: 12
Views: 1119

Re: Classifying CDs as Bonds or Short Term assets

I am including them in a category that I call: "Cash and gov't guaranteed". I don't formally divide these but just make sure enough of it is liquid enough to cover our potential needs/wants beyond what pension provides. I am trying to avoid bond funds that hold a lot of treasuries and so our other f...
by jeffyscott
Sat Jul 14, 2018 3:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which Brokerage to use strictly for Brokered CDs
Replies: 18
Views: 1424

Re: Which Brokerage to use strictly for Brokered CDs

If you decide you want to learn about treasuries, here's one discussion, that helped me with that:

viewtopic.php?f=10&t=250059
by jeffyscott
Sat Jul 14, 2018 10:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which Brokerage to use strictly for Brokered CDs
Replies: 18
Views: 1424

Re: Which Brokerage to use strictly for Brokered CDs

A family member has a good chunk of $$$ sitting in a rather low-interest rate bank account and is interested in moving into one-year CDs. I think for 1 year, Treasuries might be better, if it is a taxable account? Currently yield is about the same but no state income tax on the Treasuries. Aside fr...
by jeffyscott
Sat Jul 14, 2018 10:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Direct Real Estate Returns
Replies: 219
Views: 9976

Re: Direct Real Estate Returns

It surprises me, that on this forum direct real estate is not looked at as another way to diversify one's portfolio and is being criticized so often. I don’t think this forum is particularly anti real estate. Yeah, I think it's maybe just anti claims of things like routine 38.75% returns via owning...
by jeffyscott
Sat Jul 14, 2018 10:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Direct Real Estate Returns
Replies: 219
Views: 9976

Re: Direct Real Estate Returns

From a prior post, so I don't have to write it out again: Buy a property at $100K, $20K down. Monthly rents of $900-$950. I personally buy in markets with 6-8% long term appreciation, but lets be very conservative and use the general longer-term real estate appreciation value across the entire U.S....
by jeffyscott
Fri Jul 13, 2018 4:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2-year CDs at Vanguard and Fidelity Today
Replies: 320
Views: 42937

Re: 2-year CDs at Vanguard and Fidelity Today

At Schwab, I took about 35 months at 3.05% and ~3.5 year at ~3.2% at the end of last week. But with their commission structure on secondary, only those with 10 or more available tend to be worthwhile. If I had waited to today, I may have done a little better from what I see. I had figured the marke...
by jeffyscott
Fri Jul 13, 2018 9:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Total returns
Replies: 20
Views: 1689

Re: Total returns

That's not really how you're supposed to do it either. I'm not the arbiter of what is "supposed" to be done, but it's the exact same comparison, whether you subtract ERs from the index or add them to the funds. Apologies for that, I was going to do it differently but then changed my mind and decide...
by jeffyscott
Thu Jul 12, 2018 7:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Total returns
Replies: 20
Views: 1689

Re: Total returns

VaR wrote:
Thu Jul 12, 2018 6:23 pm
That's not really how you're supposed to do it either.
I'm not the arbiter of what is "supposed" to be done, but it's the exact same comparison, whether you subtract ERs from the index or add them to the funds.
by jeffyscott
Thu Jul 12, 2018 5:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Total returns
Replies: 20
Views: 1689

Re: Total returns

According to the links above, the benchmark returns were 21.41%. Expense ratios: .11% vtiax and .17% for vgtsx Returns: 27.55% vtiax and 27.40% vgtsx Subtracting the expense ratios off the top of these returns gives me 27.44% and 27.23% which are no where near the benchmarks. So there must be some ...
by jeffyscott
Wed Jul 11, 2018 7:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Final, Definitive Thread on Brokerage Transfer Bonuses
Replies: 1044
Views: 184898

Re: The Final, Definitive Thread on Brokerage Transfer Bonuses

My guess is, like credit card rewards, they will clamp down on this eventually. I mean, to pay out 4 figures and me never make a trade cannot pay off for them. I guess it depends on what the ratio of churners to new customers is. I don't understand why most credit card companies have not gone the A...
by jeffyscott
Wed Jul 11, 2018 7:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Selling Treasuries before maturity
Replies: 11
Views: 1139

Re: Selling Treasuries before maturity

ThriftyPhD wrote:
Tue Jul 10, 2018 8:48 pm
Four days before maturity.
Thanks
by jeffyscott
Wed Jul 11, 2018 4:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Some 'hints' about brokered CDs
Replies: 45
Views: 8819

Re: Some 'hints' about brokered CDs

But many money market funds have a healthy dose of CD's in their portfolio. I did not know that. I guess they must be worthwhile for them, after-all, despite mostly getting no FDIC insurance due to the amounts. I guess you could look up the CUSIPS of some to see if they were issued as short term or...
by jeffyscott
Wed Jul 11, 2018 4:45 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How much should i expect to pay for car insurance?
Replies: 22
Views: 1267

Re: How much should i expect to pay for car insurance?

1) age: 26 2) marital status: single 3) driving history: this is my first car 5) state of residence: NJ You will pay a lot. https://www.valuepenguin.com/best-cheap-car-insurance-new-jersey#average Quotes will vary so you are going to need to divulge information to a number of insurance companies at...
by jeffyscott
Wed Jul 11, 2018 4:17 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Prepaid cell phone plan vs Regular Contract Plan
Replies: 26
Views: 2101

Re: Prepaid cell phone plan vs Regular Contract Plan

You can read about pretty much every available prepaid plan here:

https://www.prepaidphonenews.com/2011/0 ... s.html?m=1
by jeffyscott
Wed Jul 11, 2018 9:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Selling Treasuries before maturity
Replies: 11
Views: 1139

Re: Selling Treasuries before maturity

One option with the T-bills is to do a 6 month ladder, with 1/6 of your fund maturing each month. In Treasury Direct, you can set them to reinvest until you need the money, then turn off reinvestment and have the matured bills deposited to your account. How many days prior to the reinvestment date ...
by jeffyscott
Wed Jul 11, 2018 9:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Some 'hints' about brokered CDs
Replies: 45
Views: 8819

Re: Some 'hints' about brokered CDs

Another Tip: If you are going to buy a secondary market CD at a premium, you should double check the bank's credit worthiness. As pointed out above, FDIC does not cover the amount you have paid at a premium. Bankrate.com has a "Safe & Sound" rating system that you can plug in the name of the bank a...
by jeffyscott
Wed Jul 11, 2018 9:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Some 'hints' about brokered CDs
Replies: 45
Views: 8819

Re: Some 'hints' about brokered CDs

dm200 wrote:
Wed Jul 11, 2018 8:25 am
At Vanguard - no commission on new issues.
That is the case at Fidelity, Schwab, and most others as well.
by jeffyscott
Wed Jul 11, 2018 7:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Some 'hints' about brokered CDs
Replies: 45
Views: 8819

Re: My first brokered CD order

just some facts about my first brokered CD order The minimum order is 10K; if you order ten, that's 10K. It says price 100; it seems like the price should be 1000? The calculate button on the order page helped me get it right. I've just bought my first few recently. The minimum varies at least at S...
by jeffyscott
Wed Jul 11, 2018 6:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Final, Definitive Thread on Brokerage Transfer Bonuses
Replies: 1044
Views: 184898

Re: The Final, Definitive Thread on Brokerage Transfer Bonuses

Posts below are from May, the TDA offer is valid through end of September, IIRC. Schwab matched the TDA offer for me and others. I'm moving just over $100,000 into a new Schwab Roth IRA account. The Schwab representative has told me that they'll match any monetary offer by another firm so long as I ...
by jeffyscott
Tue Jul 10, 2018 3:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Curious changes to TRP target date funds
Replies: 2
Views: 285

Re: Curious changes to TRP target date funds

M* analyst report says: In late 2017, the series began making changes within the bond sleeve. It's reducing exposure to an intermediate-term bond fund to 45% of the bond sleeve to make way for an unconstrained bond fund and a hedged international-bond fund, which will take 10% and 15% of bond assets...
by jeffyscott
Tue Jul 10, 2018 11:32 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Opticians: is there any difference in quality of Costco glasses?
Replies: 70
Views: 84497

Re: Opticians: is there any difference in quality of Costco glasses?

I usually got my progressives from pearl. Last year I tried costco. They are dramatically inferior - much more distortion depending on my head position. That said I still use the costco glasses - unless I keep switching my glasses I won't realize the increased distortion and they are much less expe...
by jeffyscott
Tue Jul 10, 2018 9:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 1 month Brokered CD, at 1.8%, Why?
Replies: 9
Views: 874

Re: 1 month Brokered CD, at 1.8%, Why?

I month treasury is over 1.8%, to me a CD should at least pay more than a treasury (and savings accounts) to be worthwhile. What about 2-3 year brokered CDs at about 2.8%-3.1%? Thought of that but this is my mom’s IRA and she is in her mid 80s. Not sure I want to tie up her $$ that long in case of ...
by jeffyscott
Tue Jul 10, 2018 8:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 1 month Brokered CD, at 1.8%, Why?
Replies: 9
Views: 874

Re: 1 month Brokered CD, at 1.8%, Why?

I month treasury is over 1.8%, to me a CD should at least pay more than a treasury (and savings accounts) to be worthwhile.

What about 2-3 year brokered CDs at about 2.8%-3.1%?
by jeffyscott
Tue Jul 10, 2018 6:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 50/50 blend of VWENX+VUSUX provides ridiculous risk adjusted return vs 100% stocks
Replies: 22
Views: 2656

Re: 50/50 blend of VWENX+VUSUX provides ridiculous risk adjusted return vs 100% stocks

Checking an old annual report, here covering the end of November 2007, net assets were $50.8 billion. Looks like it was then invested in mega caps as it does today; I don't imagine asset bloat to be that huge an issue. But was the argument that even 10 years ago it was too large, and in multiple de...
by jeffyscott
Mon Jul 09, 2018 4:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 50/50 blend of VWENX+VUSUX provides ridiculous risk adjusted return vs 100% stocks
Replies: 22
Views: 2656

Re: 50/50 blend of VWENX+VUSUX provides ridiculous risk adjusted return vs 100% stocks

Wellington has underperformed its composite index over the past 10 years, a classic case of a fund becoming too big to outperform ($100 billion in assets) and turning into a closet index fund. Another example of recency bias and skating to where the puck was. Or is it, perhaps, at least partly beca...
by jeffyscott
Mon Jul 09, 2018 2:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2-year CDs at Vanguard and Fidelity Today
Replies: 320
Views: 42937

Re: 2-year CDs at Vanguard and Fidelity Today

At Schwab, I took about 35 months at 3.05% and ~3.5 year at ~3.2% at the end of last week. But with their commission structure on secondary, only those with 10 or more available tend to be worthwhile. If I had waited to today, I may have done a little better from what I see. I had figured the market...
by jeffyscott
Mon Jul 09, 2018 9:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Morningstar: prepare for a lost decade for U.S. stocks
Replies: 198
Views: 18095

Re: Morningstar: prepare for a lost decade for U.S. stocks

My observation is that successful landlords are able to treat tenants was replaceable temporary objects instead of people because to make money you have to do repairs in a very cost efficient way that is likely very different than you would have done to you home or with your family. Which leads me ...
by jeffyscott
Mon Jul 09, 2018 9:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Morningstar: prepare for a lost decade for U.S. stocks
Replies: 198
Views: 18095

Re: Morningstar: prepare for a lost decade for U.S. stocks

As an example, a $25K down payment on a $120K property, would yield $2.5K per year - thats your 10% income figure. I guess I would see $2500 per year on a $120,000 property as 2.1%. You are just leveraging that up by borrowing. While the properties may appreciate in value, they may also decline or ...
by jeffyscott
Sun Jul 08, 2018 5:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Yield curves and bond returns
Replies: 31
Views: 2572

Re: Yield curves and bond returns

M* analysis of the DFA Five-Year Global Fixed Income also says the same thing:
...prioritizes the markets with the steepest yield curve...
...it targets the portion of the yield curve with the highest expected returns...
by jeffyscott
Sun Jul 08, 2018 9:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Morningstar: prepare for a lost decade for U.S. stocks
Replies: 198
Views: 18095

Re: Morningstar: prepare for a lost decade for U.S. stocks

This is the real point that markets are priced on the perception of the potential for future earnings, no one cares what a company made this year, or last year and so on. For some companies investors are looking 3 to 6 months out for some they are looking 5 to 10 years out. But they are always look...
by jeffyscott
Sun Jul 08, 2018 7:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Morningstar: prepare for a lost decade for U.S. stocks
Replies: 198
Views: 18095

Re: Morningstar: prepare for a lost decade for U.S. stocks

Some of the posts above are really getting a bit snippy about what is a bog-standard valuation prediction. Agree, this happens frequently on here. Any reasonable estimate of expected returns is treated as if it should be interpreted as a precise prediction of what is going to happen over some preci...
by jeffyscott
Sat Jul 07, 2018 10:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Morningstar: prepare for a lost decade for U.S. stocks
Replies: 198
Views: 18095

Re: Morningstar: prepare for a lost decade for U.S. stocks

The giant spike in P/E was known as the great recession. As earnings go to 0, P/E does go to infinity, this is usually not a reason to expect low long term returns. Your statement implies that earnings go all the way to zero and that price remains constant. Neither happened during the great recessi...
by jeffyscott
Sat Jul 07, 2018 8:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Morningstar: prepare for a lost decade for U.S. stocks
Replies: 198
Views: 18095

Re: Morningstar: prepare for a lost decade for U.S. stocks

The giant spike in P/E was known as the great recession. As earnings go to 0, P/E does go to infinity, this is usually not a reason to expect low long term returns.
by jeffyscott
Sat Jul 07, 2018 10:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Morningstar: prepare for a lost decade for U.S. stocks
Replies: 198
Views: 18095

Re: Morningstar: prepare for a lost decade for U.S. stocks

The one big difference between historical & forward looking numbers this year is tax reform. The historical numbers do not capture this known positive for earnings in 2018. Packer Yes, it would be interesting to know what the past 10 years of earnings would've been with the lower corporate tax rate...
by jeffyscott
Fri Jul 06, 2018 4:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Yield curves and bond returns
Replies: 31
Views: 2572

Re: Yield curves and bond returns

As promised ... Let's say that the yield curve did not remain static, which is the assumption on which the expected return and roll return were based, but instead increased at all terms by 20 basis points over the one-year holding period. This is how the realized returns would compare to the initia...
by jeffyscott
Fri Jul 06, 2018 4:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Morningstar: prepare for a lost decade for U.S. stocks
Replies: 198
Views: 18095

Re: Morningstar: prepare for a lost decade for U.S. stocks

Meanwhile on anther page, M* analysts have expected returns at over 9% for US stocks. :confused

Image
by jeffyscott
Thu Jul 05, 2018 4:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Yield curves and bond returns
Replies: 31
Views: 2572

Re: Yield curves and bond returns

Of course you can do whatever you want with bonds. But that's not something that I have ever seen suggested by Larry. So there's really no reason to believe his suggestion has anything to do with the roll down return. I'd guess it's just based on a some "normal" or average yield curve. The average 2...
by jeffyscott
Thu Jul 05, 2018 3:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Index Fund vs. ETF for Long Term Investment
Replies: 21
Views: 1708

Re: Index Fund vs. ETF for Long Term Investment

If you're a novice investor, I would steer clear of ETFs, simply because you're going to too tempted to trade them frequently, usually when a fund is doing well (buying high) and selling laggards (selling low). This is especially tempting with VG having no-fee ETF trades now, which takes away the s...
by jeffyscott
Thu Jul 05, 2018 3:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Yield curves and bond returns
Replies: 31
Views: 2572

Re: Yield curves and bond returns

A search for "rolling down the yield curve" or "roll down return", finds descriptions relevant to bonds without all the commodity related ones.
by jeffyscott
Thu Jul 05, 2018 2:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Yield curves and bond returns
Replies: 31
Views: 2572

Re: Yield curves and bond returns

I thought Larry's suggestion of 20 bp per year was just related to getting adequate compensation for extending, as stated here: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/4-important-considerations-when-building-bond-portfolios/ I would not think it was based on trading bonds in order to collect the maximum roll ...