Search found 6811 matches

by jeffyscott
Thu Jun 21, 2018 12:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2-year CDs at Vanguard and Fidelity Today
Replies: 232
Views: 32566

Re: 2-year CDs at Vanguard and Fidelity Today

The CD will be called if rates go down. So, you lose the guaranteed rate for the remainder of the term. It's kind of a heads I win, tails you lose. If rates rise, it is not called and you are stuck at the lower rate, but if rates fall, they call it. The yield should be a little higher to compensate...
by jeffyscott
Thu Jun 21, 2018 12:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2-year CDs at Vanguard and Fidelity Today
Replies: 232
Views: 32566

Re: 2-year CDs at Vanguard and Fidelity Today

Any reason not to buy a new issue callable CD? If they call it for some reason, I just can just buy another most likely with a higher yield. Just when I was about to order one I had been looking at was gone, but a new one that seems interesting has appeared. It is a 3 year at 3.1%, callable in 6 mo....
by jeffyscott
Thu Jun 21, 2018 8:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2-year CDs at Vanguard and Fidelity Today
Replies: 232
Views: 32566

Re: 2-year CDs at Vanguard and Fidelity Today

Still learning about brokered CDs. For new issues, are the following 3 new issues essentially the same at 2.80%? 05581WXZ3 61747MZ95 949763RD0 issued by BMO Harris, Morgan Stanley, and Wells Fargo, respectively. Thanks! The only difference I can see is that Wells Fargo pays interest monthly while t...
by jeffyscott
Wed Jun 20, 2018 9:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: The Battle Of Passive Strategies
Replies: 60
Views: 5036

Re: Larry Swedroe: The Battle Of Passive Strategies

what makes factor tilting any different from investing in old school mutual funds that we all shun? is it just the fact that we can now get these funds for 0.5% expense ratios instead of 1.5% that they are deemed beneficial? as far as I can tell, any argument against an 'old school' mutual fund app...
by jeffyscott
Wed Jun 20, 2018 8:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: You Can Market Time At Valuation Extremes
Replies: 36
Views: 3909

Re: You Can Market Time At Valuation Extremes

It seems that actual stock market performance has exceeded past estimates of expected returns. This suggests that the metrics are making the stock market look more expensive than it really is. Another factor could be that investing in stocks has become less risky (due to the ease of diversifying to...
by jeffyscott
Tue Jun 19, 2018 11:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buying CDs each month for decades
Replies: 22
Views: 5303

Re: Buying CDs each month for decades

If the CDs are in tax-deferred (as they should be) 1099s don't matter. Do they even issue them to IRA accounts?
by jeffyscott
Tue Jun 19, 2018 11:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: The Battle Of Passive Strategies
Replies: 60
Views: 5036

Re: Larry Swedroe: The Battle Of Passive Strategies

It’s worthwhile to note that the value factor is nearly as persistent as market factor. May also be worth noting that it has been MIA for about 15 years, based on returns of DFLVX vs. S&P 500. Is your point that maybe value is gone or that it’s time for it to make a comeback? :-) Dave Yes. :wink:
by jeffyscott
Tue Jun 19, 2018 9:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: The Battle Of Passive Strategies
Replies: 60
Views: 5036

Re: Larry Swedroe: The Battle Of Passive Strategies

Random Walker wrote:
Tue Jun 19, 2018 9:31 am
It’s worthwhile to note that the value factor is nearly as persistent as market factor.
May also be worth noting that it has been MIA for about 15 years, based on returns of DFLVX vs. S&P 500.
by jeffyscott
Mon Jun 18, 2018 1:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: The Battle Of Passive Strategies
Replies: 60
Views: 5036

Re: Larry Swedroe: The Battle Of Passive Strategies

His performance numbers indicate that DFA outperforms Vanguard funds during that timeframe, but I can't tell if he accounted for advisory fees during that outperformance. Use of DFA funds requires you to have an advisor. Depending upon your advisor's fees, DFA would have to outperform Vanguard by t...
by jeffyscott
Mon Jun 18, 2018 11:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buying CDs each month for decades
Replies: 22
Views: 5303

Re: Buying CDs each month for decades

I'm assuming the example uses brokered CDs rather than new issue because that's the only way to access them in a tax deferred account. If that's not why then it's both excessively fiddly AND tax inefficient. There are new issue brokered CDs. I am assuming the plan uses brokered CDs for the higher i...
by jeffyscott
Mon Jun 18, 2018 11:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buying CDs each month for decades
Replies: 22
Views: 5303

Re: Buying CDs each month for decades

I believe Schwab also has just a $1K minimum for CDs.
by jeffyscott
Mon Jun 18, 2018 11:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: The Battle Of Passive Strategies
Replies: 60
Views: 5036

Re: Larry Swedroe: The Battle Of Passive Strategies

When a fund has deeper factor exposure, less market beta exposure needs to be taken on to achieve the same tilt: a more efficient portfolio. Also cost differences are less than one would think because one can use less of the more expensive factor fund and more of the cheaper core / TSM fund to achi...
by jeffyscott
Mon Jun 18, 2018 9:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: You Can Market Time At Valuation Extremes
Replies: 36
Views: 3909

Re: You Can Market Time At Valuation Extremes

Last I looked, the market pays $17.24 for every dollar of future estimated earnings. This does not suggest to me that US Stocks are overvalued. Remember also that the accountants have toughened up the definition of earnings. A P/E ratio of 16 back in 1970 might be a P/E ratio of 19 or 20 today. So ...
by jeffyscott
Mon Jun 18, 2018 8:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I-bonds look pretty bad right now
Replies: 36
Views: 4528

Re: I-bonds look pretty bad right now

Hello, Today I calculated how long I'd have to wait if I wanted to make a positive real return with I-bonds. The return rate for an I-bond is CPI plus a fixed rate, deferred until you cash the I-bond. Then you pay federal tax but not state and local taxes. You cannot hold an I-bond longer than 30 y...
by jeffyscott
Mon Jun 18, 2018 6:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Vanguard's actively managed funds better?
Replies: 11
Views: 1547

Re: Are Vanguard's actively managed funds better?

Dividend growth is not an index fund, Dividend Appreciation is. If the stock portion of Wellington equaled the return of Dividend Growth, then it beat Dividend Appreciation. I'm not necessarily saying that it did, but that's what I'd look at. Intermediate investment grade is technically not an index...
by jeffyscott
Sun Jun 17, 2018 10:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Vanguard's actively managed funds better?
Replies: 11
Views: 1547

Re: Are Vanguard's actively managed funds better?

Some Vanguard managed funds are better than relative index funds, most notably Vanguard Wellington (VWELX - Investor Shares - 60% to 65% stocks / 40% to 35% bonds) and Vanguard Wellesley Income (VWINX - Investor Shares - 35% to 40% stocks / 65% to 60% bonds ). Supporting data follows. _____________...
by jeffyscott
Sun Jun 17, 2018 9:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I-bonds look pretty bad right now
Replies: 36
Views: 4528

Re: I-bonds look pretty bad right now

KlingKlang wrote:
Sun Jun 17, 2018 7:55 pm
With the increased standard deduction there are going to be a lot of people paying 0%, 10%, or 12% marginal tax rates instead of 22%.
Other than the new even lower rates, this is not new, around 80% were in the 15% or below tax brackets.
by jeffyscott
Sat Jun 16, 2018 10:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cash question
Replies: 14
Views: 1254

Re: Cash question

As someone else noted, you can keep the assets wherever makes the most sense. Then withdraw from wherever makes the most sense. Then exchange to offset the sale, if you feel it is necessary. If you have cash and cash-like investments in tax deferred but don't want to withdraw the money from there, ...
by jeffyscott
Sat Jun 16, 2018 6:11 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Patio high back chair cushions
Replies: 4
Views: 350

Re: Patio high back chair cushions

We got some from Walmart, they were about $40 per set (seat and back). These are "deep seat" cushions and didn't see any better pricing anywhere else, so went with Walmart for convenience of returns.

They sorta fit our odd size set and seem good enough to last a few years.
by jeffyscott
Sat Jun 16, 2018 4:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cash question
Replies: 14
Views: 1254

Re: Cash question

As someone else noted, you can keep the assets wherever makes the most sense. Then withdraw from wherever makes the most sense. Then exchange to offset the sale, if you feel it is necessary. If you have cash and cash-like investments in tax deferred but don't want to withdraw the money from there, y...
by jeffyscott
Sat Jun 16, 2018 10:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Factor Diversification = Beta?
Replies: 7
Views: 615

Re: Factor Diversification = Beta?

On the other hand, if only 1 of the 4 factors your selecting (hypothetically) works out, well then you'll wish you had just be on that one instead of all 4. Of course the trick is knowing a head of times which one that is! All other things being equal, having more bets is better than fewer. I think...
by jeffyscott
Sat Jun 16, 2018 10:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Factor-based strategy is better (winer), OK. then who are the losers?
Replies: 55
Views: 2475

Re: Factor-based strategy is better (winer), OK. then who are the losers?

Also, recency bias is a pernicious enemy of the patient investor. But there are fundamental economic reasons that stocks of smaller companies do better in some environments than others. Actually, I am in the process of phasing back in to small caps, after having phased out in 2010/11. So I it seems...
by jeffyscott
Sat Jun 16, 2018 8:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Flaw in Logic? CD ladder instead of bond funds
Replies: 63
Views: 4473

Re: Flaw in Logic? CD ladder instead of bond funds

In my opinion either option is going to work out just fine - the difference between the two will likely to end up being small enough to be lost in the noise of your investment returns. As such, I prefer bond funds because they are so much simpler to manage. This is about where I'm at...and while yo...
by jeffyscott
Sat Jun 16, 2018 8:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Factor-based strategy is better (winer), OK. then who are the losers?
Replies: 55
Views: 2475

Re: Factor-based strategy is better (winer), OK. then who are the losers?

If not, then the SCV may be arbed away like other active strategies over time. Hasn't that already happened? I tend to think the excess gains from SCV have been more related to periodic irrational valuation differences, anyway. By 2010/11 after the 2008-09 losses had been recovered, I think the val...
by jeffyscott
Fri Jun 15, 2018 10:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Flaw in Logic? CD ladder instead of bond funds
Replies: 63
Views: 4473

Re: Flaw in Logic? CD ladder instead of bond funds

The yield premiums were much richer during those years than they are now, so I don't know why someone who really knew what was going on would be thinking about CDs now if they weren't then. I'm one who wasn't but is now. I did not really have the ability to conveniently put much in direct bank CDs,...
by jeffyscott
Fri Jun 15, 2018 10:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard email about transition fund accounts to new brokerage platform
Replies: 37
Views: 2024

Re: Vanguard email about transition fund accounts to new brokerage platform

We have one older account that is not on the brokerage platform. We have newer accounts are brokerage, mainly because there was no choice. The only annoyance that I have noticed with the new ones is small residuals in the settlement account, after having invested what was shown as the full balance. ...
by jeffyscott
Fri Jun 15, 2018 4:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Requested rollover overnight envelope 6/4..don't have 6/13
Replies: 6
Views: 522

Re: Requested rollover overnight envelope 6/4..don't have 6/13

When I read these posts I sure am glad I closed my Vanguard 401k. When I retired and received my 401k rollover check, I drove 7 miles to the local Scottrade (now TDA) office and deposited into a new tIRA. It was processed the same day and Scottrade gave me a $1k new account bonus. It is nice to be ...
by jeffyscott
Fri Jun 15, 2018 8:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Factor-based strategy is better (winer), OK. then who are the losers?
Replies: 55
Views: 2475

Re: Factor-based strategy is better (winer), OK. then who are the losers?

Part of the small/value premium is a risk premium. There is a larger chance of your investment in a small and/or value company going to zero than there is with a large/growth company. Buying an index of many small value companies will eliminate single stock risk, but it also greatly increases the o...
by jeffyscott
Thu Jun 14, 2018 7:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: You Can Market Time At Valuation Extremes
Replies: 36
Views: 3909

Re: You Can Market Time At Valuation Extremes

The way to market-time is not to switch into cash when the market is expensive and wait for a fall. Because it's entirely possible than even expensive equities will return more than cash over the amount of time you spend waiting for that fall. What you need to do, if you want to time, is change you...
by jeffyscott
Wed Jun 13, 2018 4:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: You Can Market Time At Valuation Extremes
Replies: 36
Views: 3909

Re: You Can Market Time At Valuation Extremes

1996, when valuations were "extreme" was actually the CHEAPEST point-in-time to buy stocks in the past 22 years. Uh, no. That would be March 2009. The return from 1996 to then was less than cash (short term treasuries) or bonds. Shiller was correct, the S&P 500 was priced to deliver low long term r...
by jeffyscott
Wed Jun 13, 2018 3:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Schwab's market predictions next 10 years
Replies: 20
Views: 2670

Re: Schwab's market predictions next 10 years

My favorite Larry Swedroe articles are the ones where he reviews the "sure things." (He uses the phrase tongue-in-cheek. His point is how often, and how quickly, and how badly the "sure thing" forecasts fail). At the beginning of the year he summarizes the universal consensus wisdom, the things tha...
by jeffyscott
Wed Jun 13, 2018 3:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 3.75 mortgage with PMI or refinance 4.4 no PMI
Replies: 6
Views: 662

Re: 3.75 mortgage with PMI or refinance 4.4 no PMI

Those high closing costs would change the increased interest to $99 per month in my calculation, while also increasing the balance by $8500. I get a 27 year payback as you save only $26 per month. With those parameters, I would wait for a better deal, were me. The $8500 saved would cover the $125 pe...
by jeffyscott
Wed Jun 13, 2018 7:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Schwab's market predictions next 10 years
Replies: 20
Views: 2670

Re: Schwab's market predictions next 10 years

It's a 10 year forecast, which is a much more reasonable thing to attempt than trying to predict the next year. So if the linked Vanguard paper was attempting to make a prediction for 2017, that is something they should stop doing. Schwab is much more optimistic regarding stocks (particularly US) th...
by jeffyscott
Wed Jun 13, 2018 7:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 3.75 mortgage with PMI or refinance 4.4 no PMI
Replies: 6
Views: 662

Re: 3.75 mortgage with PMI or refinance 4.4 no PMI

I never encountered anything like a cost of $20,000 to refinance. Can you look for a different lender? That was my first thought, too...but rereading it I see that the $20K includes paying off part of the principle. If the current lender will not allow dropping PMI, even if you pay off $50K of the ...
by jeffyscott
Tue Jun 12, 2018 2:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Vanguard Small Cap Index really small cap?
Replies: 32
Views: 1843

Re: Is Vanguard Small Cap Index really small cap?

It's also worth noting that due to the cap weighted nature of these indexes, most of your invested dollars are steered towards the larger companies. Even though the CRSP small cap index goes pretty small, the biggest few companies tend to dominate the index. Just like you see with total market indi...
by jeffyscott
Tue Jun 12, 2018 10:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard -Data Concerns
Replies: 29
Views: 2213

Re: Vanguard -Data Concerns

I agree it is simply unacceptable to publish wrong data. What accounts for this? Maybe the problem is not that Vangaurd is too big but that they are not big enough (enough resources) to manage the operation. I think that is a more polite way of asking "Are they too cheap?" :?: IOW, are they big in ...
by jeffyscott
Tue Jun 12, 2018 6:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard -Data Concerns
Replies: 29
Views: 2213

Re: Vanguard -Data Concerns

Pajamas wrote:
Mon Jun 11, 2018 2:52 pm
Lefty517 wrote:
Mon Jun 11, 2018 2:37 pm
I question is Vanguard too big ?
What is the relationship between Vanguard being "big" and errors in reporting prices?
Perhaps the question should be is Vanguard too cheap?
by jeffyscott
Tue Jun 12, 2018 6:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Indexing will fail investors in next decade
Replies: 57
Views: 8851

Re: Indexing will fail investors in next decade

Yes, it is. Maybe, maybe not, but the point was that "Paper has no value, currency can be manipulated, printed, and created out of thin air in all sorts of ways", is not a logical reason to buy real estate. Many people (and I am one) do not want to be a landlord and don't want debt. I'd rather lend...
by jeffyscott
Mon Jun 11, 2018 6:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should I move my tax-efficient funds from Roth IRA to Taxable before or after distribution?
Replies: 16
Views: 831

Re: Should I move my tax-efficient funds from Roth IRA to Taxable before or after distribution?

I think the correct answer is to wait until after. If I buy more VSS in the Roth before the distribution I'll be paying more foreign taxes on it. The foreign tax is the only variable that I think matters in the Roth. Also this way I avoid buying the dividends in the taxable, although I've read rece...
by jeffyscott
Mon Jun 11, 2018 5:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Indexing will fail investors in next decade
Replies: 57
Views: 8851

Re: Indexing will fail investors in next decade

Umm.. literally everything that has a government attached to it (which is close to everything period) is enforced and enforceable by violence. This is nothing new. Its a sad truth we all have to live with unless you want to go entirely off the grid. I think some of us are trying to understand your ...
by jeffyscott
Sun Jun 10, 2018 6:52 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Best banks for checking accounts?
Replies: 33
Views: 3214

Re: Best banks for checking accounts?

Is two factor really that unusual?

Schwab has it (they use Symantec VIP app) and my credit union also has it (using SMS).
by jeffyscott
Sun Jun 10, 2018 5:40 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Home Insurance : H03 Vs H05 policy types
Replies: 27
Views: 6404

Re: Home Insurance : H03 Vs H05 policy types

Thanks, one thing I did find on insurance commission site was a consumer brochure that said HO5 is not often sold today and then under the HO3 mentions an HO-15 endorsement, with a somewhat cryptic description of it...but elsewhere found this description: Homeowners who want additional coverage may...
by jeffyscott
Sun Jun 10, 2018 4:31 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Home Insurance : H03 Vs H05 policy types
Replies: 27
Views: 6404

Re: Home Insurance : H03 Vs H05 policy types

Bongleur wrote:
Sun Jun 10, 2018 4:12 pm
What is "ISO" ???
Insurance Services Office
by jeffyscott
Sun Jun 10, 2018 3:52 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Home Insurance : H03 Vs H05 policy types
Replies: 27
Views: 6404

Re: Home Insurance : H03 Vs H05 policy types

Mine says "Homeowners 5 - Comprehensive Form" in heading on page 1 of the policy. So pretty easy to determine assuming this is the standard form and mine is ISO, per the copyright at the bottom of each page. There is also "HO 00 05 05 11" printed at the bottom of each page. You can do that because ...
by jeffyscott
Sun Jun 10, 2018 3:48 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Home Insurance : H03 Vs H05 policy types
Replies: 27
Views: 6404

Re: Home Insurance : H03 Vs H05 policy types

But without buying a separate rider, wouldn't even a HO-5 policy have a stated (low) coverage limit for jewelry? The ISO HO-3 policy covers "$1,500 for loss by theft of jewelry, watches, furs, precious and semiprecious stones." The ISO HO-5 policy covers "$1,500 for loss by theft, misplacing or los...
by jeffyscott
Sun Jun 10, 2018 3:37 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Home Insurance : H03 Vs H05 policy types
Replies: 27
Views: 6404

Re: Home Insurance : H03 Vs H05 policy types

The state brochure where I first saw the reference is dated Jan. 2017, though. In the HO-3 description, it says: "For an additional premium, a special personal property coverage endorsement (HO-15) can be added to extend HO‑3 to provide “comprehensive” coverage on unscheduled personal property." Th...
by jeffyscott
Sun Jun 10, 2018 3:35 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Home Insurance : H03 Vs H05 policy types
Replies: 27
Views: 6404

Re: Home Insurance : H03 Vs H05 policy types

Bringing this back to life as I have the same decision to make. I'd really like a list of the things the insurance company is trying to avoid covering by using named perils for the personal property, does such a list exist? I haven't seen a list, but the example of the diamond ring keeps coming up....
by jeffyscott
Sun Jun 10, 2018 3:13 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Home Insurance : H03 Vs H05 policy types
Replies: 27
Views: 6404

Re: Home Insurance : H03 Vs H05 policy types

Thanks, one thing I did find on insurance commission site was a consumer brochure that said HO5 is not often sold today and then under the HO3 mentions an HO-15 endorsement, with a somewhat cryptic description of it...but elsewhere found this description: Homeowners who want additional coverage may...
by jeffyscott
Sun Jun 10, 2018 3:06 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Home Insurance : H03 Vs H05 policy types
Replies: 27
Views: 6404

Re: Home Insurance : H03 Vs H05 policy types

My renewal happes to be due, but looking at the paperwork, I can't tell which type I have. You can find out by reading your policy. Not the declarations page, but the actual 20-50 page policy. Mine says "Homeowners 5 - Comprehensive Form" in heading on page 1 of the policy. So pretty easy to determ...
by jeffyscott
Sun Jun 10, 2018 5:43 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Best banks for checking accounts?
Replies: 33
Views: 3214

Re: Best banks for checking accounts?

Ally is my primary checking/online savings. Currently, 1.6% interest rate. Good interface and customer service. I keep a secondary account at Schwab for International travel and local banking. If schwab had a better interest rate, I might move everything there. Their website says checking is 0.1% f...