Search found 6563 matches

by jeffyscott
Wed Feb 21, 2018 10:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: J. Montier: US equity market is obscenely overvalued
Replies: 32
Views: 2853

Re: J. Montier: US equity market is obscenely overvalued

To me it's reasonable to cut equity a little because of poor expected returns. But I wouldn't gamble on getting a chance to buy back in cheaper. You might be stuck with your lower equity allocation. I do think that many people could reduce risk by cutting their US equity exposure, either weighting ...
by jeffyscott
Tue Feb 20, 2018 8:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any reason for equities in tIRA, if there is space for Total Equity Allocation in Taxable and Roth Accounts
Replies: 7
Views: 545

Re: Any reason for equities in tIRA, if there is space for Total Equity Allocation in Taxable and Roth Accounts

OffGridder wrote:
Sun Feb 18, 2018 11:21 pm
Of course there could be some years when there is a correction in equities, in which case that would temporarily suppress growth of of the tIRA.
With stock prices where they are, maybe keep equities in tIRA and convert after they crash :( :wink: .
by jeffyscott
Tue Feb 20, 2018 8:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "The Effects of Social Security Benefits and RMDs on Tax-Efficient Withdrawal Strategies"
Replies: 10
Views: 1990

Re: "The Effects of Social Security Benefits and RMDs on Tax-Efficient Withdrawal Strategies"

We're definitely low income and I've been converting to the top of the zero tax bracket. So I'm not sure how to use this information. I really don't want to have to pay tax on anything if I can help it. We should stay in the zero bracket, with the possibility that I may need to do sudden drawdowns ...
by jeffyscott
Tue Feb 20, 2018 7:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: J. Montier: US equity market is obscenely overvalued
Replies: 32
Views: 2853

Re: J. Montier: US equity market is obscenely overvalued

AlohaJoe wrote:
Tue Feb 20, 2018 4:51 am
In 2011 James Montier predicted that over the next 7 years the S&P 500 would return just 0.2%.
Well, 0.2% real, does that bring him close enough? :wink:
by jeffyscott
Tue Feb 20, 2018 7:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond Fund Interest as QDI?
Replies: 1
Views: 149

Re: Bond Fund Interest as QDI?

No, qualified dividends are from stocks only.

Bond interest (even if we call it dividends) is ordinary income. Of course, there are tax-exempt bonds/bond funds and treasuries, etc. are exempt from state income taxes.
by jeffyscott
Tue Feb 20, 2018 7:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does Non-deductible IRA make sense
Replies: 7
Views: 591

Re: Does Non-deductible IRA make sense

I think I would use I-bonds and, if able to hold for 20 years, EE-bonds, rather than putting taxable bond funds in a non-deductible IRA. EE bonds earn about 3.5% (more than even 30 year treasuries), if held exactly 20 years. They are tax deferred until cashed in, the same tax treatment as non-deduct...
by jeffyscott
Tue Feb 20, 2018 7:19 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Withdrawls from Retirement Accounts
Replies: 3
Views: 696

Re: Withdrawls from Retirement Accounts

Assuming neither is a Roth account, if you will be converting some to Roth as well as withdrawing and spending some, you might do the withdraw and spend from the 401K and the Roth conversions with the IRA. In-plan conversion of 401K to Roth 401K does not change the RMD requirement, Roth 401K will st...
by jeffyscott
Wed Feb 14, 2018 9:07 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Medical Lab Fees - Not Covered
Replies: 13
Views: 1241

Re: Medical Lab Fees - Not Covered

It's not a scam. It's negotiation. When I was an in-network doctor, cash patients would sometimes ask for "the insurance rate". I told them I would be happy to give them the insurance rate if they give me what insurance companies give me....10+ new paying patients each week. My neighbor owns a car ...
by jeffyscott
Tue Feb 13, 2018 6:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Valuation-dependent Safe Withdrawal Rate?
Replies: 29
Views: 1345

Re: Valuation-dependent Safe Withdrawal Rate?

What you are ignoring is the rather strong mean reversion tendency of stocks. When stocks have just dropped in value by 30%, they have a higher expected return going forward than when stocks have recently soared by 30%. I don't think so. Looking at it in reverse, I'm suggesting a 3.5-4.2% withdrawa...
by jeffyscott
Tue Feb 13, 2018 3:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Valuation-dependent Safe Withdrawal Rate?
Replies: 29
Views: 1345

Re: Valuation-dependent Safe Withdrawal Rate?

So if at "normal" valuations one might say 5-6% would be okay. Lets assume a 50% decline in stocks and maybe 10% in bonds gets us to normal. If you have a 50/50 portfolio, you would lose 30% in that scenario. If after a 30% loss, 5% would be "safe", this means 3.5% should be safe now. If 6% would b...
by jeffyscott
Tue Feb 13, 2018 11:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Valuation-dependent Safe Withdrawal Rate?
Replies: 29
Views: 1345

Re: Valuation-dependent Safe Withdrawal Rate?

Looking at history, we see something like this 20% of the time - you could withdraw 7-8% and not run out of money in 30 years 60% of the time - you could withdraw 5-6% and not run out of money in 30 years 20% of the time - you could withdraw 4% and not run out of money in 30 years So people looked ...
by jeffyscott
Tue Feb 13, 2018 10:55 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Costco Kirkland Brand Toothpaste
Replies: 22
Views: 2095

Re: Costco Kirkland Brand Toothpaste

If you love Charmin, stock up while it's on sale, because the buyer may have just made a deal for several cargo ships worth of Quilted Northern. Oh good, it's about time. Hate Charmin and we only buy quilted northern ultra plush :wink: . Never even saw Kirkland brand toothpaste in 6+ years at our s...
by jeffyscott
Tue Feb 13, 2018 10:44 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Costco 'Goodyear' wiper blades
Replies: 29
Views: 2663

Re: Costco 'Goodyear' wiper blades

Costco blades were good when they stocked the beam type blades, especially at the unbelievably cheap price of $5, when they would have $3 off. They call the new crappy ones "hybrid", which mean conventional blades with some plastic covering the brackets. After that change at Costco, tried the cheape...
by jeffyscott
Sun Feb 11, 2018 11:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: how did you determine your risk tolerance?
Replies: 103
Views: 4862

Re: how did you determine your risk tolerance?

You wouldn't know what your risk tolerance level is until you live through a period like 2000-2001. And/or 2008-2009. I think a factor is also how much money you have invested at the time. Had about 6x as much invested in 2008 as in 2000, losing 50% of, say, $100,000 is a lot different than losing ...
by jeffyscott
Sun Feb 11, 2018 11:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ally online savings now at 1.45%
Replies: 72
Views: 8118

Re: Ally online savings now at 1.45%

allisgoodintheshire wrote:
Sun Feb 11, 2018 11:05 am
I have a large chunk of cash ($500K) in an IRA moved over to Schwab some months back. I was reluctant to put into stocks and thank goodness I didn't.
Not sure what "some months" means, but US stocks (VTSMX) have a total return of 1.74% over the past 3 months per morningstar.
by jeffyscott
Sun Feb 11, 2018 10:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ally online savings now at 1.45%
Replies: 72
Views: 8118

Re: Ally online savings now at 1.45%

The G fund is not fixed income! It is a stable value fund. The difference is important in the context of portfolio composition. I'm not sure why one would not include stable value in the "fixed income" category? If you consider a binary division of a portfolio into stocks/fixed income, where fixed ...
by jeffyscott
Fri Feb 09, 2018 10:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bank Loan ETFs
Replies: 2
Views: 233

Re: Bank Loan ETFs

I don't think liquidity risk is that high because if there is a run on these funds (and I don't remember if there was one in 2008), they could temporarily suspend redemptions until the current tranche of loan funds is turned over. I'm not sure what you mean by liquidity risk, but basically what you...
by jeffyscott
Fri Feb 09, 2018 10:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ally online savings now at 1.45%
Replies: 72
Views: 8118

Re: Ally online savings now at 1.45%

MikeG62 wrote:
Fri Feb 09, 2018 7:52 am
Barclays or Marcus (which are both at 1.50%)
While offering 1.5% on savings accounts, those same banks have things like 3 mo. CD at 0.35% and 6 month CD at 0.6% :confused .
by jeffyscott
Fri Feb 09, 2018 9:55 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What qualifies as ending FSA coverage for HSA eligibility?
Replies: 6
Views: 369

Re: What qualifies as ending FSA coverage for HSA eligibility?

I don't know the answer, but does your employer happen to offer a limited purpose FSA? I'm guessing not or they would have told you to roll the money to that, as you can have it at the same time as an HSA. When I switched my employer did not yet offer the limited purpose option. They told me that I ...
by jeffyscott
Fri Feb 09, 2018 9:43 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Performance-based trust fund
Replies: 7
Views: 348

Re: Performance-based trust fund

Seems like a good way to make your kids resent each other and you.

I would just give/leave an equal amount to each.
by jeffyscott
Thu Feb 08, 2018 9:42 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Comcast Modem Part 2
Replies: 6
Views: 880

Re: Comcast Modem Part 2

When we had TWC TV, phone, internet, they would charge a modem rental fee but not a fee for using the very same device just for the phone. So we bought a modem, kept the exact same piece of equipment from TWC but no longer had to pay a rental fee. The modem function was now handled by our purchased ...
by jeffyscott
Thu Feb 08, 2018 9:32 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Radon: basement stair and basement gym considerations
Replies: 11
Views: 1010

Re: Radon: basement stair and basement gym considerations

Just get a meter, $130 @ HD: https://www.homedepot.com/p/Safety-Siren-Pro-Series-3-Electronic-Gas-Radon-Detector-PS3RDU/206974226 We had similar levels. Post mediation meter shows long term average of 0.5, short term (weekly) has ranged from 0.3 to around 1.0. Short term is same as long, 0.5, most o...
by jeffyscott
Wed Feb 07, 2018 9:58 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Cheap cell phone plans
Replies: 48
Views: 3331

Re: Cheap cell phone plans

Check out FreedomPop, it uses Sprint's network. +1 We have been with them for over a year, no issues. With their current fees, you would be looking at $5.99 up front ($.99 sim card, $5.00 Downgrade fee) and then $.01 inactivity fee for months you don't use it. It's not for everyone, but we've been ...
by jeffyscott
Sun Feb 04, 2018 10:11 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Jewelry and other insurance riders for valuables
Replies: 2
Views: 292

Re: Jewelry and other insurance riders for valuables

I don't even want the coverage as we have nearly nothing in the category, but some coverage for jewelry, watches, furs is automatically included in my homeowners insurance because we have chosen the H-05 coverage form. It appears to say $2500 per item to a total of $6500. But I also have a $5000 ded...
by jeffyscott
Sun Feb 04, 2018 9:48 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: what to do in retirement
Replies: 11
Views: 2109

Re: what to do in retirement

I can't see how it would make any sense for you to gift her money. She's got nearly $900K plus an SS benefit available and spending of $30K. Whether she takes SS now or delays, she should withdraw from her retirement accounts to cover expenses (and convert to Roth if not needed), rather than take mo...
by jeffyscott
Wed Jan 24, 2018 11:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's your one big takeaway from the Crash of 2008?
Replies: 379
Views: 62381

Re: What's your one big takeaway from the Crash of 2008?

We had no idea in 2008-9 how things would sort themselves out. Yep, there was a chance that it would basically be the end of the economy as we had known it. My wife and I talked about the possibility of a long collapse, like the great depression and kids maybe needing to move back home with us for ...
by jeffyscott
Sun Jan 21, 2018 9:42 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How do you adjust side mirrors in a car?
Replies: 61
Views: 3675

Re: How do you adjust side mirrors in a car?

First even by the standard of setting the mirrors wide the head to the window method does not work. The NHTSA document suggests the mirrors be angled outward by about 15 degrees. When I tried the head to the window method the mirror is angled outward by over 30 degrees. This leaves a blind spot you...
by jeffyscott
Sat Jan 20, 2018 6:40 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How do you adjust side mirrors in a car?
Replies: 61
Views: 3675

Re: How do you adjust side mirrors in a car?

I have not seen a trustworthy source recommend setting the mirrors wide. NHTSA has a document called "Blindzone Glare Elimination Mirror Method" with instructions for setting mirrors wide on their site. It is under "Fact Sheets for Novice Teen Drivers" at: https://www.nhtsa.gov/road-safety/teen-dri...
by jeffyscott
Sat Jan 20, 2018 9:16 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Recommend an A.C. powered auto tire inflator
Replies: 43
Views: 2558

Re: Recommend an A.C. powered auto tire inflator

Whether or not you have to run the car depends solely on the car you have. My Audi powered the cigarette jacks without needing to run the car. My current car, the Hyundai Genesis, requires the car be turned on for the jacks to be powered. Are you sure you have to actually run the car? Doesn't the j...
by jeffyscott
Fri Jan 19, 2018 9:45 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How do you adjust side mirrors in a car?
Replies: 61
Views: 3675

Re: How do you adjust side mirrors in a car?

When you flare out/adjust side mirrors to eliminate blind spots completely, you render them useless for other functions—such as using them to back out of parking spaces while avoiding support pillars and other parked cars/obstacles, aligning car to curb when parallel parking, etc. I already know ho...
by jeffyscott
Thu Jan 18, 2018 10:15 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How do you adjust side mirrors in a car?
Replies: 61
Views: 3675

Re: How do you adjust side mirrors in a car?

When I lean my head to the left, I should just barely see the side of the car in the driver side mirror. Adjustment of the passenger side is similar :sharebeer That's the way I do it too, after reading something many years ago advising that, rather than aiming them to see the sides of the car. That...
by jeffyscott
Tue Jan 16, 2018 9:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyway to compare metrics of today w stock bubble in 2000
Replies: 26
Views: 2340

Re: Anyway to compare metrics of today w stock bubble in 2000

...In 1999, there was euphoria in the market. I don't get any sense of euphoria today. In fact, I'd say that until last year, this was the most unloved bull market I've ever heard of... I continue to think the difference is that the 1995-2000 bull market was piled on top of a solid and long-sustain...
by jeffyscott
Mon Jan 15, 2018 5:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyway to compare metrics of today w stock bubble in 2000
Replies: 26
Views: 2340

Re: Anyway to compare metrics of today w stock bubble in 2000

Still only at about 75% of peak valuations from 2000 (using CAPE).

http://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe/

Using the link for monthly table there, CAPE (Shiller PE) hit 43 in 2000 vs. 32 now. There are also links to other valuation metrics there.
by jeffyscott
Mon Jan 15, 2018 5:31 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: FlipPhone
Replies: 18
Views: 1579

Re: FlipPhone

For limited users, the cheapest pay as you go is Tello (1 cent per text, 2 cents per MB, 3 cents per minute) and cheapest prepaid plans are probably RedPocket (as low as $60 per year). https://www.prepaidphonenews.com/2011/02/best-prepaid-data-carriers-and-plans.html I had a flip phone that I had ke...
by jeffyscott
Mon Jan 15, 2018 11:05 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Recommend an A.C. powered auto tire inflator
Replies: 43
Views: 2558

Re: Recommend an A.C. powered auto tire inflator

It does not have A/C, but I have been happy with a Slime pump. It is pretty fast even though only running on the car battery and does have what seems to be an accurate digital gauge with a pressure preset, so it shuts itself off. Don't know if they make an A/C model. Do you have to run the car engi...
by jeffyscott
Sun Jan 14, 2018 7:07 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Recommend an A.C. powered auto tire inflator
Replies: 43
Views: 2558

Re: Recommend an A.C. powered auto tire inflator

It does not have A/C, but I have been happy with a Slime pump. It is pretty fast even though only running on the car battery and does have what seems to be an accurate digital gauge with a pressure preset, so it shuts itself off. Don't know if they make an A/C model. This is the one I have: https://...
by jeffyscott
Fri Jan 12, 2018 11:11 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Yahoo Mail: Delete Not Working
Replies: 24
Views: 1258

Re: Yahoo Mail: Delete Not Working

No problem here, using chrome in linux. Clear browsing history. I'm not sure if "history" was intended to mean all browsing data, but I think it's usually clearing cache and cookies that seem to be recommended as a way to try to fix browser issues. Just mentioning as in chrome you can delete just "h...
by jeffyscott
Tue Jan 02, 2018 6:07 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Want adequate filter to discharge clothes drier indoors
Replies: 24
Views: 2378

Re: Want adequate filter to discharge clothes drier indoors

The Electrolux EFDE210TIW is not a heat pump condensing dryer (HPCD). It's a condensing dryer that uses a resistive heating element. It's not as efficient as an HPCD, so you won't get a 10-year payback. Condensing gas dryers make even less economic sense. Natural gas costs about $1.30 a therm in th...
by jeffyscott
Tue Jan 02, 2018 9:21 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Oregon and N California trip, need advice
Replies: 20
Views: 1623

Re: Oregon and N California trip, need advice

Highway 199 between Grants Pass OR & Crescent City CA (CCC) is a lovely scenic road, alas, full of RVs in June. I remember taking a well maintained gravel road as an alternative to part of our route from CCC to Crater Lake many years ago. After looking here: https://www.nps.gov/redw/planyourvisit/d...
by jeffyscott
Tue Jan 02, 2018 9:06 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: South Florida visit in early March
Replies: 20
Views: 1444

Re: South Florida visit in early March

For myself, I think Everglades Nation Park would be worth the 2 hour drive each way to the main area. But if not that, there are some things, such as around the Shark Valley Visitor Center, along/near the US 41 route, which you could take as an alternate route to or from Naples.
by jeffyscott
Tue Jan 02, 2018 7:48 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: SALT Tax Deduction Max of $10K is NOT indexed to Inflation
Replies: 29
Views: 4365

Re: SALT Tax Deduction Max of $10K is NOT indexed to Inflation

The taxation of SS benefits is another thing that is not indexes and has, I believe, never been adjusted. I assume this was by design to slowly make more SS benefits taxable over time. Actually, the taxation of SS benefits has been adjusted many times over the years. You might not be old enough to ...
by jeffyscott
Mon Jan 01, 2018 6:43 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: SALT Tax Deduction Max of $10K is NOT indexed to Inflation
Replies: 29
Views: 4365

Re: SALT Tax Deduction Max of $10K is NOT indexed to Inflation

It seems the $750,000 cap on mortgage interest deduction is also fixed, not indexed to inflation. So seems to be a design feature to slowly reduce some of the more popular tax subsidies. The taxation of SS benefits is another thing that is not indexes and has, I believe, never been adjusted. I assum...
by jeffyscott
Mon Jan 01, 2018 12:51 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Want adequate filter to discharge clothes drier indoors
Replies: 24
Views: 2378

Re: Want adequate filter to discharge clothes drier indoors

A heat pump condensing dryer is an air conditioner turned inside out. It uses half as much electricity as a traditional electric dryer. It doesn't make economic sense in the U.S. The average American household uses 590 kWh a year drying clothes. At an average of $0.13 per kWh, that's only $77 a yea...
by jeffyscott
Mon Jan 01, 2018 12:00 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Lost about $100 due to shipping issue?
Replies: 24
Views: 1844

Re: Lost about $100 due to shipping issue?

Did you pay USPS for insurance?

Unlike UPS and FedEx, which I believe include insurance for up to $100 in the base shipping charges, I think with USPS it is always an optional extra charge for parcel post.
by jeffyscott
Sun Dec 31, 2017 10:31 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Top load washing machine
Replies: 11
Views: 1173

Re: Top load washing machine

I just went through this; had a front loading, high tech LG washing machine for about 8 years. Had to replace the water pump 3 times and then the control board went and the door seal was also showing serious wear. The water pump is cheap (maybe $40), but you have to essentially take half the machin...
by jeffyscott
Sat Dec 30, 2017 10:13 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Gulf coast vacation ideas?
Replies: 9
Views: 877

Re: Gulf coast vacation ideas?

We have stayed in and liked both Gulf Shores and Orange Beach, AL. We are not really into shopping or restaurants, but I think Orange Beach is a little more developed, though it has been a while since we have been to Gulf Shores and when we did stay there we were out of town toward Fort Morgan. Last...
by jeffyscott
Wed Dec 20, 2017 12:43 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Advance payment of property tax
Replies: 8
Views: 735

Re: Advance payment of property tax

You can pay in 2017 (in full) your California (actually county) tax bill for "Fiscal Year Beginning July 1, 2017 and Ending June 30, 2018" and deduct it on your 2017 federal taxes. This is a tax imposed in 2017 - even though the 2nd (last) payment happens to be due February 1, 2018. Section 11042 o...
by jeffyscott
Wed Dec 20, 2017 10:56 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Advance payment of property tax
Replies: 8
Views: 735

Re: Advance payment of property tax

I believe advance payment is specifically excluded for state tax deduction but not for property taxes...? Does not affect me as we won't itemize, but I read an article about the final bill that indicated what you recall. I have in the past paid state income taxes in advance, itemizing in alternate ...
by jeffyscott
Mon Nov 20, 2017 3:58 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Holding a mortgage for someone else - options?
Replies: 35
Views: 2561

Re: Holding a mortgage for someone else - options?

Hi Jeffy, can you tell me more about how you "balanced things out" in the Roth? How do you account for the change in value of the assets in the Roth vs the change in value of the home (or would it be the value of the cash given?) Do you adjust the percentage going to each beneficiary on a regular b...
by jeffyscott
Mon Nov 06, 2017 1:59 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Considering a LG 55" OLED TV
Replies: 50
Views: 4963

Re: Considering a LG 55" OLED TV

I wonder if the slight difference in model numbers would be an issue for that? Costco has it as Model OLED55B7 Best Buy has it as Model: OLED55B7A You might actually be better off to use https://shopping.google.com and searching for OLED55B7P, and taking one of those sites for the price match. I ha...