Search found 6704 matches

by jeffyscott
Sun May 20, 2018 12:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: No Need For Corp Bonds?
Replies: 35
Views: 3103

Re: Larry Swedroe: No Need For Corp Bonds?

Thanks for all the information, Robert.
by jeffyscott
Sun May 20, 2018 9:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: No Need For Corp Bonds?
Replies: 35
Views: 3103

Re: Larry Swedroe: No Need For Corp Bonds?

Why are you choosing such a high equity allocation (75%)? Why is it assumed to be that you must have only one or the other? As just one example, could have 50% stocks, 25% treasuries, and 25% corporates...or perhaps better for individuals, who have tax advantaged accounts, would be 50% stocks, 25% 5...
by jeffyscott
Sun May 20, 2018 7:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buffett says Bonds are a terrible investment now. What should we invest in besides stocks?
Replies: 76
Views: 8714

Re: Buffett says Bonds are a terrible investment now. What should we invest in besides stocks?

Berkshire owns a lot of short term high quality "bonds" (debt instruments-many of which retail investors do not have access to). Well, in the case of treasuries, those with maturities of 10 years or less are officially "notes" and "bills", not "bonds". Perhaps he does not classify those short term ...
by jeffyscott
Sat May 19, 2018 10:32 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: New phone to continue T-mobile legacy prepaid plan
Replies: 10
Views: 891

Re: New phone to continue T-mobile legacy prepaid plan

So it seems that some of my issues with roaming failures may be due to elimination of 2G on non-t-mobile networks. I guess t-mobile will follow that in a year or two, so the simple solution of replacing my phone with a used-but-working same model isn't the most appealing. Will the $10 legacy plan s...
by jeffyscott
Sat May 19, 2018 5:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: No Need For Corp Bonds?
Replies: 35
Views: 3103

Re: Larry Swedroe: No Need For Corp Bonds?

Seems like there's even more of a case there that there is no need for treasuries, that we'd be better off with CDs. ...for individual investors who have access to the CD market. FDIC-insured CDs, which also have no credit risk (as long as you remain within the limits of the insurance), typically ca...
by jeffyscott
Sat May 19, 2018 2:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do I understand duration correctly?
Replies: 18
Views: 1195

Re: Do I understand duration correctly?

People and books always make the point that there is zero difference between individual bonds and a collection of them in a bond fund. I think it's more that there is no difference between a collection of bonds that you hold directly and a collection of the same in a fund. If you own and maintain a...
by jeffyscott
Sat May 19, 2018 11:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do I understand duration correctly?
Replies: 18
Views: 1195

Re: Do I understand duration correctly?

Take a bond fund with a duration of 5 in a rising interest rate environment. Year 1, interest rates increase by 1%. Here's my oversimplified way of looking at this: Let's say it has a yield of 3%, so you lose 5% in NAV, but then are earning 4%. So, $10,000 falls to $9500 and you earn 4% on that, so...
by jeffyscott
Sat May 19, 2018 10:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buffett says Bonds are a terrible investment now. What should we invest in besides stocks?
Replies: 76
Views: 8714

Re: Buffett says Bonds are a terrible investment now. What should we invest in besides stocks?

Buffet's advice is to be 90% S&P 500 at the very least. If you think this is advice that should apply to you, then that is what it is. If your net worth is about $85,000,000,000, like Mr. Buffet, then that 10% is still over $8 billion. A 99% loss of the other 90% would still leave him with just und...
by jeffyscott
Sat May 19, 2018 7:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buffett says Bonds are a terrible investment now. What should we invest in besides stocks?
Replies: 76
Views: 8714

Re: Buffett says Bonds are a terrible investment now. What should we invest in besides stocks?

US Stocks right now have a forward earnings yield of around 6%. Add in around 2% in earnings growth (tagged to real GDP growth) and that is almost an 8% real return. That's not really that bad. How consistent the current earnings yield would be in the future, I do not know. People like Shiller like...
by jeffyscott
Fri May 18, 2018 1:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: In plan Roth conversion and RMDs
Replies: 6
Views: 528

Re: In plan Roth conversion and RMDs

I'm not working :happy

Did make some Roth contributions. But now will be converting to top of the 12% bracket.
by jeffyscott
Thu May 17, 2018 7:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: YTD: VBTLX down 2.28%; VBILX down 2.99%; VTSAX down 0.23%
Replies: 78
Views: 6651

Re: YTD: VBTLX down 2.28%; VBILX down 2.99%; VTSAX down 0.23%

zaboomafoozarg wrote:
Thu May 17, 2018 5:24 pm
But sometimes I think I would feel way better about life in general if I remained blissfully ignorant...
That applies in many areas of life for me, unfortunately. :( :sharebeer
I think I need overanalyzer's anonymous...
by jeffyscott
Thu May 17, 2018 6:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: In plan Roth conversion and RMDs
Replies: 6
Views: 528

Re: In plan Roth conversion and RMDs

Thanks for confirming.
by jeffyscott
Thu May 17, 2018 2:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: In plan Roth conversion and RMDs
Replies: 6
Views: 528

In plan Roth conversion and RMDs

I understand that for 401(K), 403(b), and 457(b) plans that if you convert to Roth in-plan (or have made Roth contributions) that there will still be RMDs from the Roth portion. My understanding is that Roth IRAs have no required RMDs, even if the money originated in a 401(K), etc. and I assume that...
by jeffyscott
Thu May 17, 2018 2:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: This is Unbelievable - another Vanguard customer support odyssey
Replies: 55
Views: 10932

Re: This is Unbelievable - another Vanguard customer support odyssey

In this case there's no paperwork, just a check in an envelope. And I verified before mailing that was really what I was supposed to send. I did leave the check attached to the stub, which has my address on it. I figure I'll let it fester for another week or two. But if I ultimately have to start ov...
by jeffyscott
Thu May 17, 2018 12:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: This is Unbelievable - another Vanguard customer support odyssey
Replies: 55
Views: 10932

Re: This is Unbelievable - another Vanguard customer support odyssey

Reading this as my first rollover attempt becomes a hassle... I don't know why rollovers need be so convoluted in the first place...but, anyway, my employer mailed check made out to Vanguard to me, which I promptly put in the mail to them. Now 9 days later Vanguard says: ...we have no record of your...
by jeffyscott
Thu May 17, 2018 11:41 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is it worth quitting my private-sector job and taking a government job so I can invest in the 457 account, too?
Replies: 15
Views: 1559

Re: Is it worth quitting my private-sector job and taking a government job so I can invest in the 457 account, too?

I thought HSAs were for people with high-deductible health insurance. Are there other circumstances where one can have an HSA? Otherwise, I would think your state government job should come with a solid health insurance plan that would have a low deductible. Well with mine, it had become a choice b...
by jeffyscott
Wed May 16, 2018 6:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Value Premium Lives!
Replies: 39
Views: 2781

Re: Larry Swedroe: Value Premium Lives!

There may not have been a value premium, but I think there's been a Wellington premium :?: :twisted:
by jeffyscott
Wed May 16, 2018 10:37 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is it worth quitting my private-sector job and taking a government job so I can invest in the 457 account, too?
Replies: 15
Views: 1559

Re: Is it worth quitting my private-sector job and taking a government job so I can invest in the 457 account, too?

Sounds like a pretty good gig. Was it worth it to you? I believe it was preferable to the alternatives for me. But, of course, I did not live through the alternatives in order to be able to truly compare. I do know of a number of people who came in from the private sector in their 50s, planning to ...
by jeffyscott
Wed May 16, 2018 8:13 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is it worth quitting my private-sector job and taking a government job so I can invest in the 457 account, too?
Replies: 15
Views: 1559

Re: Is it worth quitting my private-sector job and taking a government job so I can invest in the 457 account, too?

Interestingly, I was similarly enticed into taking a public sector job recently (with a good pay raise too), but soon realized that it is not for me. Lack of processes, unbelievable bureaucracy, extreme politics, etc. I quit after a few months, and am now back in the private sector. I do miss the g...
by jeffyscott
Wed May 16, 2018 7:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: YTD: VBTLX down 2.28%; VBILX down 2.99%; VTSAX down 0.23%
Replies: 78
Views: 6651

Re: YTD: VBTLX down 2.28%; VBILX down 2.99%; VTSAX down 0.23%

The reason to invest is to make money. If you started out the year with 100k of VBILX at $11.33 a share. Today, on May 15, 2018 the NAV is $10.85. That means your 100k is now worth 95.76k, or a loss of more than 4k. Let's be generous and say that the yield is 3% for the year, that means in 5 months...
by jeffyscott
Tue May 15, 2018 9:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: YTD: VBTLX down 2.28%; VBILX down 2.99%; VTSAX down 0.23%
Replies: 78
Views: 6651

Re: YTD: VBTLX down 2.28%; VBILX down 2.99%; VTSAX down 0.23%

If your investment horizon is over ten years, there is absolutely no reason to own bond funds right now. VBTLX has a 2.64% dividend yield, while VBILX has 2.76%. You should at least look at current yields, rather than trailing, so 3.11% and 3.38%. If you like the yield of corporate stocks at 1.74%,...
by jeffyscott
Tue May 15, 2018 7:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Good idea investing now in long term funds?
Replies: 57
Views: 3938

Re: Good idea investing now in long term funds?

So that's my point. It seems you cannot pick individual stocks and beat the market and yet there seems to be lot of people that want to time the market for bonds. I don't understand the heart of the difference. What if you look at it from the perspective that you are making a loan to some entities?...
by jeffyscott
Mon May 14, 2018 5:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Good idea investing now in long term funds?
Replies: 57
Views: 3938

Re: Good idea investing now in long term funds?

In the case of treasuries, you won't get much better yield by extending maturities 2.96% for 7 year, 3.00% for 10, 3.06% for 20, and 3.13% for 30.
by jeffyscott
Mon May 14, 2018 5:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Volatility tolerance build up
Replies: 11
Views: 849

Re: Volatility tolerance build up

Ask me again after the next 50% plus drop in stocks, combined with the possible end of the economy as we have known it. In over 20 years of investing, the only time I really felt a lot of stress about it was 2008-09. The losses were about equal to about 1.5 year's income and by the end (and we did n...
by jeffyscott
Mon May 14, 2018 5:25 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: When to claim Social Security: two reasons not to wait
Replies: 68
Views: 11443

Re: When to claim Social Security: two reasons not to wait

(Full disclosure: I'm 64 and my wife is 63 this year. We are planning to both wait until 70 to start our benefits. We still have 6-7 years to change our minds. No matter what, we intend to be happy.) Joe: I would take a good look at the numbers if the lower-earning spouse takes SS at FRA (likely 66...
by jeffyscott
Sun May 13, 2018 7:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fixed dollar bond allocation
Replies: 6
Views: 842

Re: Fixed dollar bond allocation

...one reason people give for increasing the equity portion of their AA is that the time line for when the money gets used is longer when they consider their children; i.e., they might be 65 but their children, who may be 40,will not need the money for 25-30 years. That is actually a factor for me,...
by jeffyscott
Sat May 12, 2018 7:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mutual fund v. ETF
Replies: 7
Views: 720

Re: Mutual fund v. ETF

I have never gotten in to ETFs, but my understanding is they are not necessarily bought/sold at NAV. If I were going to use ETFs (and I am not), I would want to learn about premiums/discounts and bid/ask spreads...are these potentially hidden costs in addition to the reported ER? Just picking one to...
by jeffyscott
Fri May 11, 2018 9:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond Fund Point of Indifference vs. Principle Recovery
Replies: 56
Views: 4433

Re: Bond Fund Point of Indifference vs. Principle Recovery

We have not had rising rates over the last 3-5 years. Let's just look at 5-year Treasury yield... 5 year was 0.4% in May 2013 (5 years ago), 1.6% three years ago, and is 2.8% today. 10 year was 1.9% five years ago 2.3% three years ago and is now near 3%. So the rates have risen over both the 3 year...
by jeffyscott
Fri May 11, 2018 5:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond Fund Point of Indifference vs. Principle Recovery
Replies: 56
Views: 4433

Re: Bond Fund Point of Indifference vs. Principle Recovery

You wouldn't differentiate between short and long term ? Perhaps eliminating long term while the interest rate scenario is rising. We have had rising rates for several years, yet if you look at bond fund returns long term > Intermediate > Short term over the past 3 and 5 years. This is the case for...
by jeffyscott
Fri May 11, 2018 3:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ally online savings now at 1.60%
Replies: 171
Views: 25613

Re: Ally online savings now at 1.60%

Things can change, but Fed is expected to raise rates maybe 3 more times this year and 4 next, so that's an increase of +1.75% in short term rate. So, yes, expecting yield on cash to be 3-4% seems reasonable. https://www.cnbc.com/2018/03/21/federal-reserve-dot-plots-march-2018.html The Fed also uppe...
by jeffyscott
Fri May 11, 2018 3:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Total Bond - SEC yield breaks 3%
Replies: 97
Views: 10540

Re: Total Bond - SEC yield breaks 3%

My actual claim is this: when a direct CD with EWP has a positive yield spread to a treasury of equivalent maturity, as is not infrequently the case, it is a win for an investor . One may or may not beat inflation but it is not as if one could do better per unit of pure term risk. No he didn't My a...
by jeffyscott
Fri May 11, 2018 12:55 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: When to claim Social Security: two reasons not to wait
Replies: 68
Views: 11443

Re: When to claim Social Security: two reasons not to wait

Hold harmless works for somebody who is at least 65, otherwise it doesn't work because you are not on Medicare yet. This makes me lean toward starting SS no later than 65. Or maybe it would depend on the Medicare premiums that year, if the non-hold harmless beneficiaries got a large increase, maybe...
by jeffyscott
Fri May 11, 2018 11:24 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: When to claim Social Security: two reasons not to wait
Replies: 68
Views: 11443

Re: When to claim Social Security: two reasons not to wait

Hold harmless works for somebody who is at least 65, otherwise it doesn't work because you are not on Medicare yet. This makes me lean toward starting SS no later than 65. Or maybe it would depend on the Medicare premiums that year, if the non-hold harmless beneficiaries got a large increase, maybe...
by jeffyscott
Fri May 11, 2018 11:04 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: When to claim Social Security: two reasons not to wait
Replies: 68
Views: 11443

Re: When to claim Social Security: two reasons not to wait

What they do not consider is that the size of your benefit determines how much “tax deferred” income you receive and therefore how much income you will need from other sources to achieve the same after federal tax lifestyle. When you use your “Net Benefit”, Benefits minus taxes, instead of the gros...
by jeffyscott
Fri May 11, 2018 9:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Total Bond - SEC yield breaks 3%
Replies: 97
Views: 10540

Re: Total Bond - SEC yield breaks 3%

I am not sure if I should create another thread or not. At what SEC yield would it make sense to move money from a 3% stable value VOYA fund to the Total Bond Market fund? I have a lot of our bonds in the 3% fund but with the Total Bond yield now over 3% I am wondering when it would make sense, if ...
by jeffyscott
Wed May 09, 2018 4:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond Fund Point of Indifference vs. Principle Recovery
Replies: 56
Views: 4433

Re: Bond Fund Point of Indifference vs. Principle Recovery

In other words, with an initial SEC yield of 2%, you could end up earning annualized 1% to 3% over 5 or 10 years, which over 5 years is roughly cumulative 5% to 15%, and over 10 years roughly 10% to 30% (roughly, because I'm ignoring compounding). That's quite a large range of potential returns. Th...
by jeffyscott
Wed May 09, 2018 8:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Concerned about Total Bond Mkt duration increase?
Replies: 23
Views: 2364

Re: Concerned about Total Bond Mkt duration increase?

Also, in case you haven't noticed, some experts are saying that the Bloomberg Barclay's Aggregate Index is too risky because the duration is increasing, and others are saying it is becoming too conservative because the percentage of government issues in it is increasing. Shrug. I think the risk ret...
by jeffyscott
Wed May 09, 2018 8:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond Fund Point of Indifference vs. Principle Recovery
Replies: 56
Views: 4433

Re: Bond Fund Point of Indifference vs. Principle Recovery

<snip> ... and generally, with bond funds what they pay when you buy them predicts what they will pay as you hold them. I think I know what you're getting at here, but it's not really true. Please elaborate to explain more about what you mean (I know what some people mean when they say this, but th...
by jeffyscott
Tue May 08, 2018 10:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Total Bond - SEC yield breaks 3%
Replies: 97
Views: 10540

Re: Total Bond - SEC yield breaks 3%

...but if you take a step back and look at it, total bond had only one way to outperform this strategy, which was if the yield kept going down and become negative, and keeps going down more - so you get more capital gain. Well the other way might be some sort of failure of the stable value fund. So...
by jeffyscott
Tue May 08, 2018 7:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Total Bond - SEC yield breaks 3%
Replies: 97
Views: 10540

Re: Total Bond - SEC yield breaks 3%

Have been holding all fixed income in various CDs and also 401k stable value funds the last 3-5 years and with no total bond. The results have been much better than the 1.38% five-year-return of total bond. I phased out total bond when the yield became less than my stable value fund. I started back...
by jeffyscott
Tue May 08, 2018 3:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Total Bond - SEC yield breaks 3%
Replies: 97
Views: 10540

Re: Total Bond - SEC yield breaks 3%

...a brokered CD has the same interest rate risk as a similar duration bond fund (say, Treasuries, to keep the guarantees similar). But, at least currently, the brokered CD has a higher yield. Same risk, higher return so the CD = free lunch? Is this because most invested money is in taxable account...
by jeffyscott
Tue May 08, 2018 10:33 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: United Mileage Plus CC - worth it?
Replies: 32
Views: 2936

Re: United Mileage Plus CC - worth it?

If all else fails, at least you should be able to close the account, re-do this and earn a bonus. I think Chase bonuses are available as long as you have not gotten it in the last 2 years. The current offer says: This product is not available to either (i) current Cardmembers of this credit card, or...
by jeffyscott
Tue May 08, 2018 10:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Total Bond - SEC yield breaks 3%
Replies: 97
Views: 10540

Re: Total Bond - SEC yield breaks 3%

So would a 5yr rolling CD ladder do better than a nominal 5yr duration bond fund in a rising rate environment? If so, how much better? Has anyone done the math on this? Or is there any backtested data available? Kevin M has done many blogposts and forum posts on this topic. An example , among many ...
by jeffyscott
Tue May 08, 2018 9:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fixed dollar bond allocation
Replies: 6
Views: 842

Re: Fixed dollar bond allocation

We could lose 100% after SS and Medicare kick in, about 5-10 years from now and this would likely have no impact on our lifestyle. Based on that we could have 90% in stocks as we only need about 10% of assets to cover likely expenses over that 5-10 year time frame. Yet we, instead, have about 40% st...
by jeffyscott
Mon May 07, 2018 8:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond Fund Point of Indifference vs. Principle Recovery
Replies: 56
Views: 4433

Re: Bond Fund Point of Indifference vs. Principle Recovery

I may not have stated it explicitly, although it should be clear in the first chart and with my explanation of the chart, but to try and make sure there's no misunderstanding, "point of indifference" is not about recouping lost capital. It's the point in time at which you would have earned the same...
by jeffyscott
Sun May 06, 2018 9:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ally online savings now at 1.60%
Replies: 171
Views: 25613

Re: Ally online savings now at 1.50%

I'm in the 12% Federal tax bracket for 2018 and pay no state income taxes. I have $50,000 (+ or -) so the difference in yearly interest is $740 at Ally vs $660 with the Vanguard fund but it is tax free. You would be better off with Prime Money Market at 1.83%, which would be 1.61% after 12% tax vs....
by jeffyscott
Sun May 06, 2018 5:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I-bond fixed rate = 0.3%
Replies: 62
Views: 7020

Re: I-bond fixed rate = 0.3%

To argue with myself a bit, you only earn 15 bps per year of extra yield for extending maturity to three years with the TIPS from about one year with the I Bond (you can't sell the I Bond for one year, and then pay the 3-month penalty if you sell before five years). That's OK, but it isn't particul...
by jeffyscott
Sun May 06, 2018 12:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I-bond fixed rate = 0.3%
Replies: 62
Views: 7020

Re: I-bond fixed rate = 0.3%

I just feel that the price of the inflation insurance is too high right now, and at this point am not very worried about the probability + consequence of really bad outcomes. Maybe I should be. As I said, I accept that a very rational case can be made for using TIPS (or I Bonds to a limited extent)...
by jeffyscott
Sat May 05, 2018 4:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Working Hours Glide Path
Replies: 10
Views: 878

Re: Working Hours Glide Path

What I was able to do is take some long periods of time off, before making retirement official, using accumulated leave. The last increments were taking off most of a summer, then back for about 10 weeks, then 9 months off. This made it easier, psychologically, as by the time I made it official, I f...
by jeffyscott
Sat May 05, 2018 1:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Chart: When 90% of the Stock Market is Indexed
Replies: 20
Views: 2653

Re: Chart: When 90% of the Stock Market is Indexed

The latest global survey data I've found indicates that institutional investors today allocate about 68% of their market cap to active equity strategies and 32% to passive ones. Interestingly the linked document indicates that many institutional investors are concerned about this issue: 56% (of ins...