Bogleheads.org

jeffyscott

I think NAESX was converted from an actively managed fund to an index fund in the early 1990's. https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=35929 The Fund was organized as a Maryland corporation under the name of Naess & Thomas Special Fund, Inc. on December 15, 1959. On August 17, 1989, the F...

jeffyscott

It is interesting that at 4:30pm EST they let you submit the trade to begin with, since you did not have enough available funds due to MF trade not submitted, right? They should have just declined your 4:30pm EST request on the spot. No. They have way to know that you have a push deposit in transit...

jeffyscott

Yes, CD/bond market hours are until 5. I learned this after my CD purchase. I was actually surprised when I noticed the time...almost as surprised as I was a to see a 4 month CD with YTM of 3.15% :) . After re-reading the email, that listed conditions for trading without settled funds, it seems the ...

jeffyscott

Sequence was: bought CD at 4:30 EST, placed order to sell mutual fund immediately after. So the fund sale occurred at next days close. And both trades settled the day after. Never had a brokerage account until about 4 months ago, so I don't really know if that would be considered a violation. I figu...

jeffyscott

It closes at 5pm EST. Thanks, did not know I had an extra hour available. Or not... It turns out Schwab will basically not let me make use of that extra hour of the bond market. I got a trade violation email because the mutual fund sale to cover CD purchase happened the next day (since market was c...

jeffyscott

02nz wrote: ↑
Wed Oct 17, 2018 9:58 am
I plan to write a letter and seek either adjustment of price back to the date that the money was received but incorrectly processed.

Depending on if it is higher or lower, of course

jeffyscott

Thanks for the tips. We'll be well below that income limit. I don't see 60 days mentioned at that link, perhaps that was somewhere else? I'll get it done in less than 60 days, that'll be about what's left in the year, anyway, as I should cash them in Nov. 1 to get an extra month's interest. The link...

jeffyscott

TSP only has traditional (tax-deferred) and Roth balances, it shouldn't even possible to transfer anything from TSP to a regular brokerage account Sure it is possible, it would just be a withdrawal. As you noted: had I not discovered the error I could have been subject to a 10% withdrawal penalty a...

jeffyscott

Don't disagree with the CD price aspects, but would you sell Treasuries that were up 10% to buy corporates that were down 10%. That's a 20% freebee. If it happens once every ten years that's 200 bps a year. And at a capital gains rate at that. I guess I'd leave decision to the bond fund managers th...

jeffyscott

The non-callable new-issue 2-year CDs at 3.00% settle on 10/26/2018 and mature 10/26/2020. I saw yield of 2.879% for a Treasury maturing 10/31/2020 at Schwab for min quantity 10 (yields are lower at Vanguard and Fidelity for this quantity). So even in an IRA, or where there is no state tax in a tax...

jeffyscott

My issue is not with the yield difference but with the Treasury price increase (think capital gain) in a "flight to quality" situation like the fall of '08. Right, and I understand that way of looking at it. While I would assume CDs would not decline in that scenario since interest rates would fall...

jeffyscott

You are comparing a CD held to maturity with a fund that normally sells it's holding with one year remaining. That comparison could be misleading. As could annualizing the last 30 days total return (SEC yield) and comparing it to a future fixed income multi-year promise. Okay, how about this one? :...

jeffyscott

We are planing to fund 529 accounts with proceeds from I-bonds, avoiding taxes on the I-bond interest and earning a state income tax deduction for the contributions. As I understand it, the 529s will need to be initially established in my name and my spouses name in order to avoid taxes on the I-bon...

jeffyscott

Seems like current rule for best of the new issues in the 2-5 year range is 0.15% extra yield per year. There 3.0% for 2 year, 3.15% for 3 year, and 3.45% for 5 year. I took a few secondaries in between 2-3 year at about 3.2% today. I figured since that is nearly equal to SEC yield of Vg short term ...

jeffyscott

I buy them through a broker, but you also can buy them at Treasury Direct. One potential small advantage of TD is that you can buy in increments of $100. A disadvantage is that selling early is more difficult, the instructions for doing so indicate that you must transfer them to a broker, which req...

jeffyscott

You can do a Morningstar growth of $10,000 over the time frames of interest and compare that to the results using your data.

jeffyscott

It closes at 5pm EST. Thanks, did not know I had an extra hour available. All I could find on Schwab site is: "Quotes and order placement are available 22 hours/day, 7 days/week (not available 2:00 a.m. – 4:00 a.m. EST). Orders placed outside market hours will be executed the next market day, if th...

jeffyscott

For taxable it is true. I don't hold brokered CDs in taxable either. I just got some Wellsfargo CD in secondary market for ~3.13% which is maturing in ~2.6 years, in tax-advantaged accounts, of course. As a Boglehead, ~20 basis points are quite a bit to me. Was it CUSIP 949763GQ3, by chance? That's...

jeffyscott

I saw a small batch of CDs ($11,000) with 2-1/2 years to maturity and YTM of 3.185% and put in an order. It gave me an estimated amount and a settlement date, but then when I checked order status it was "canceled". When I now search for the CUSIP, I see someone selling the same number of CDs (11), b...

jeffyscott

Even if closely correlated with the US, that would obviously not mean that the returns can not differ greatly, since they have done so over the past decade. The next decade could see a similar, but opposite, divergence of returns, even if just has highly correlated as the past decade. False. A 30/7...

jeffyscott

Why invest in an asset class that when compared to the US stock market has lower returns, higher volatility, is closely correlated to the US market, and is loaded with currency exchange risk ? Why? Because only one of those four descriptions is relevant, only two of the four descriptions are object...

jeffyscott

Phoned Schwab - advised if I bring the check of my CD proceeds to my local branch. I can place the trade over the phone at the office, and it will be made that day. No commission to purchase the T-Bills... There is no commission, but don't they have a $25 "service charge" for broker assisted trade?

jeffyscott

I don't have a Vanguard account, my Schwab account does not let you sweep into whatever cash fund you choose - it goes in their very low paying one, then you have to transfer it to a higher paying one. Maybe all brokerage cos. are the same now, don't know. Your right not much to compound, but say I...

jeffyscott

If I had to choose a CD, I would split between the 24 mo. 3% CD and Synchrony's 15 mo. 2.75% CD or the 16 mo. 2.836% CD on the secondary market, although the latter only has 10 qty available atm, and you'd have to pay a brokerage fee for buying from the secondary market which will bring the yield d...

jeffyscott

Many persons are saying that they pay monthly fees $2.5 from their bank. Doesn't it mean they are using post tax dollars to pay what can be paid by pre tax dollars if taken from HSA account. Yes, but this would mean that an extra $30 is invested in tax-free (or at least tax-deferred) account, rathe...

jeffyscott

What if rates go up as they are expected to do (about 1% over the next 12 - 15 months)? While short term bonds may not reflect that full 1% rise, money market funds being essentially zero term will likely rise accordingly. In short before the 2 or 3 year term is up, the CD may well be yielding less...

jeffyscott

This was the first time I was buying without funds already in settlement account and I found that Schwab did allow this, which is good because their settlement account is lousy. The cost of the CD is shown as "estimated cost", so when I entered trade to fund the settlement account, I sold a bit ext...

jeffyscott

doin tings wrote: ↑
Mon Oct 01, 2018 10:25 am
It just has an empty entry for QDI like it is N/A.

It is N/A. Qualified dividends are from stocks not bonds.

jeffyscott

Fidelity and Schwab now also have a 2-year new-issue at 2.95% offered by JP Morgan Chase, in addition to the one from Wells Fargo. JPM settlement is 10/16 with interest paid semi-annually. WF settlement is 10/12 with interest paid monthly. There are much larger quantities of the WF CD at both Schwa...

jeffyscott

MotoTrojan wrote: ↑
Mon Oct 01, 2018 8:07 am
Glad I didn’t invest in 2008! Crazy P/E.

That is what is known as a recession, at which time looking at the 1 year P/E is problematic for obvious reasons. We are not in a recession now, nor were we in one in 1998-2000, both periods feature similar CAPE as well as 1 year trailing P/E.

jeffyscott

MotoTrojan wrote: ↑
Sat Sep 29, 2018 11:11 am
What were the 12 month trailing and forward estimated P/E ratios in February 98?

I don't know about forward, but trailing was about the same, based on this chart of earnings yield (inverse of P/E):

http://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-earnings-yield

jeffyscott

thanks! still, it seems to me the wiki article is incorrect. shouldn't the balance have been adjusted positively when the index rose? It was, the article says it went 1.035, 1.05, 0.985. I think you are misinterpreting that to mean inflation was 3.5%, then 5%, then -1.5%, but the article does not e...

jeffyscott

Deflation is when the inflation rate falls below 0%, to use your wording. The example does not list the inflation rates, just it's effect on the bond's adjusted principle value. If that ratio is 1.035, my understanding is that means there has been a cumulative net total of 3.5% inflation since the i...

jeffyscott

PortfolioVisualizer will adjust a chart (but not, alas, the calculated numbers) for inflation. Here's Total Bond, adjusted for inflation. I can't find that, how do you make it adjust for inflation? There is also a "drawdowns" tab, here it is for 7-10 year treasuries (IEF): http://i.imgur.com/RxVTyh...

jeffyscott

I've never been able to reconcile the seemingly potential losses of -5% or so in intermediate-term bond funds with the apocalyptic language. Yes, if they had been talking 20-30 year bonds, it would make some sense, but they specifically cited the 10 year. Here's 20-30 year treasuries (TLT) vs. 7-10...

jeffyscott

So, I say feared interest rate scenario occurred--but their feared consequences did not. I would say that even if their feared consequences had occurred: "If over the next year, 10-year interest rates, which are now 2.8%, rise to 3.15%, bondholders will suffer a capital loss equal to the current yi...

jeffyscott

My family member worked in the financial industry over 30+ years. His annual salary and bonus are in the 7 figures range. He has a master degree in economics from the University of Chicago. I lost 50% of my whole life savings during Telecom Bust. He lost 10 million during Telecom bust. Are you smar...

jeffyscott

In Rekenthaler's illustration, if we suppose that the yield had gone instantly from 2.5% back to 3.8%, bursting the supposed bubble, that would have been a 1.3% rise. Currently, in Total Bond, an instant rise of 1.3% would cause a decline of 1.3%/year x -6.1 years = -8%. At a current SEC yield of 3...

jeffyscott

k66 wrote: ↑
Sat Sep 29, 2018 10:28 am
And was there no gain in the stock market from 1998 to 2010? Portfolio Visualizer suggests that a $10k investment in VTI would have grown to $14,500 over that period

And meanwhile an investment in cash would've grown to about $18,000, based on Vanguard short term treasury.

jeffyscott

Just to add some more context to the discussion. It's impressive the fundamental US large cap index has kept up with the S&P 500, given the fact the Fundamental index significantly underweights the technology sector due to their high valuations. At least in the current portfolio stats on M*, it's a...

jeffyscott

Just to add some more context to the discussion. It's impressive the fundamental US large cap index has kept up with the S&P 500, given the fact the Fundamental index significantly underweights the technology sector due to their high valuations. At least in the current portfolio stats on M*, it's a...

jeffyscott

Let's say that CAPE exceeds 35 today, and based on my CAPE policy, I reduce my equity allocation to 25%. I'll need to hold that new allocation for at least 10 years, regardless of what CAPE does in the meantime, yes? It's a long-term timing strategy . But that's not what people do who advocate and ...

jeffyscott

The other claim I've heard Arnott make is that the last 10 years or so value has outperformed growth significantly , yet the fundamental index hasn't underperformed the index appreciably (or, as you say, it wouldn't be unreasonable to call it a tie). His claim is something to the effect of the outp...

jeffyscott

I think if you haven't had a smartphone before, you will be surprised in how much data can be used up quickly. Though there are things you can do to tweak and reduce it, a lot of apps use data in the background. I get 5GB a month, am mostly at home on Wifi, and use almost all of it. I don't really ...

jeffyscott

While it does not overcome the wisdom that costs matters and it is unlikely that one can pick the successful active managers in advance, does a solid track record, low ERs, and VG's oversight of these managers not provide the confidence that active VG funds could still be the right answer? It is ce...

jeffyscott

I got my first smart phone a little over a year ago at a similar age. After 7 years the screen started failing on a flip phone that I had used with grandfathered paygo Boost plan, for which I had been paying $5 every 3 months. After a year with a used $30 Moto E2, I recently upgraded to a factory un...

jeffyscott

While I thoroughly understand the arguments for passive investing, VG makes it hard by offering such outstanding active funds. Not sure I can find a reason to change after this brief analysis. Low costs are the key. It is not like you are proposing to keep an active fund with an ER of 1% or somethi...

jeffyscott

Every time a renewal comes due, my rates increase 15-20% without any claims, accidents, traffic violations, etc. When I call to question these absurd increases for nothing I did, I get the same old spiel - "we have had more claims than expected, so we had to increase rates." I don't believe this fo...

jeffyscott

I have owned the STAR fund in my IRA since the beginning of the fund itself and although it would feel odd to part with such an old friend, I looked around for its closest index counterpart. I assumed this was the LS Moderate Growth fund, which is 60.19% equity or the Target Date 2025 fund, which i...

jeffyscott

VWESX may be more diversified, the index fund has 70% in one category, industrial. VWETX/VWESX has about 45% in that category.

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