Search found 1230 matches

by donaldfair71
Sat Mar 16, 2024 3:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: M1 adding monthly fee for users under $10k assets
Replies: 13
Views: 1830

Re: M1 adding monthly fee for users under $10k assets

Best decision I made was closing an account there 5 years ago. They wanted to charge me a fee for keeping nothing there in assets (even though it was temporary- I didn’t plan on not ever having assets there again).
by donaldfair71
Fri Mar 08, 2024 12:03 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: feeling stuck with kid expenses and this phase of life
Replies: 61
Views: 7376

Re: feeling stuck with kid expenses and this phase of life

When we had 2 in higher cost daycare, from 2015 to 2018, we lowered retirement contributions tremendously. Just had to, there was no other way to make up the $2400 monthly cost. It stunk and it did kind of hurt, not going to lie.

Key was increasing right back when they were out, which we did. We are still paying daycare for 1 that came in 2019, but his daycare ends this June. We will take that savings (roughly 1300/month) and add most of that to retirement accounts.

You will make more money, and those costs do go away. Just stay strong with it, keep faith, and it does get easier.
by donaldfair71
Thu Mar 07, 2024 4:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do large cap growth stocks have periods of outperformance?
Replies: 35
Views: 3549

Re: Why do large cap growth stocks have periods of outperformance?

nisiprius wrote: Tue Mar 05, 2024 9:37 am
alex_686 wrote: Tue Mar 05, 2024 9:12 am One last thought.

Lets say you proved that a coin had a bias, that it would come up heads 55% of the time.

A fair coin would have 4 straight tails 6% of the time, the unfair one 4%.

With this in mind, how much would you alter you betting? Would you bet your house on this slight advantage? You can only make 1 bet and you won’t know if you have won for 10 years.
Beautiful!
This is ironically why I tilt to SV. I couldn’t handle making this bet and losing from 2000-2010, when the 4% likelihood showed up and I made nothing in the SP500. Lost, in fact.
by donaldfair71
Tue Mar 05, 2024 12:36 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: about Norway rats
Replies: 31
Views: 4745

Re: about Norway rats

2 suggestions:

Get some cats, ones you take care of well (even if they are outside-only).

Use bait/traps. I’ve gotten both online.

I’ve used both, both work well. Cats have always been my best deterrent, but allergic considerations and having ongoing pets might limit this choice.

You’ll want to seal up the entry either way.
by donaldfair71
Mon Mar 04, 2024 9:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emerging Markets Stocks have been a complete disaster
Replies: 170
Views: 15837

Re: Emerging Markets Stocks have been a complete disaster

pascalwager wrote: Mon Mar 04, 2024 8:25 pm
Bill Bernstein wrote: Mon Mar 04, 2024 7:30 pm "Bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism, and die on euphoria. The time of maximum pessimism is the best time to buy, and the time of maximum optimism is the best time to sell."

--John Templeton
Seems like market timing.
I see it the opposite way. DON’T market time out things because of recent low returns.
by donaldfair71
Mon Mar 04, 2024 3:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emerging Markets Stocks have been a complete disaster
Replies: 170
Views: 15837

Re: Emerging Markets Stocks have been a complete disaster

Nathan Drake wrote: Mon Mar 04, 2024 11:40 am Peak pessimism in EM makes me feel good about my large allocation going forward
:sharebeer
by donaldfair71
Fri Mar 01, 2024 3:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Announces CEO Retirement and Appointment of President
Replies: 368
Views: 34499

Re: Vanguard Announces CEO Retirement and Appointment of President

I’m probably wrong, but my first reaction to this was one where the direction goes even further from Bogle. One where Vanguard will begin to offer the full suite of speculative assets for which it doesn’t presently provide a platform.
by donaldfair71
Sat Feb 24, 2024 4:03 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Heavy Value Tilt Away from Mag 7 stocks
Replies: 221
Views: 13738

Re: Heavy Value Tilt Away from Mag 7 stocks

How have you enjoyed underperforming the market for the last 15 years? At what point to you capitulate? Couldn’t this be applied similarly to anyone not solely in QQQ the last decade? No, the market has not underperformed the market. The market has of course underperformed particular sectors that have outperformed but when you own the total market you are guaranteed not to underperform the total market. Would International be included in the total market? Something like VT (All World ETF) is what I have in mind. Reasonable minds differ on whether international diversification is necessary. IMO it is a good idea. Yeah that’s kind of where I’m at. I think that anyone who has diversified internationally has trailed US-only for 15 years, but I...
by donaldfair71
Sat Feb 24, 2024 11:15 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Heavy Value Tilt Away from Mag 7 stocks
Replies: 221
Views: 13738

Re: Heavy Value Tilt Away from Mag 7 stocks

aristotelian wrote: Sat Feb 24, 2024 10:59 am
donaldfair71 wrote: Sat Feb 24, 2024 9:57 am
aristotelian wrote: Fri Feb 23, 2024 8:37 pm How have you enjoyed underperforming the market for the last 15 years? At what point to you capitulate?
Couldn’t this be applied similarly to anyone not solely in QQQ the last decade?
No, the market has not underperformed the market. The market has of course underperformed particular sectors that have outperformed but when you own the total market you are guaranteed not to underperform the total market.
Would International be included in the total market? Something like VT (All World ETF) is what I have in mind.
by donaldfair71
Sat Feb 24, 2024 9:57 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Heavy Value Tilt Away from Mag 7 stocks
Replies: 221
Views: 13738

Re: Heavy Value Tilt Away from Mag 7 stocks

aristotelian wrote: Fri Feb 23, 2024 8:37 pm How have you enjoyed underperforming the market for the last 15 years? At what point to you capitulate?
Couldn’t this be applied similarly to anyone not solely in QQQ the last decade?
by donaldfair71
Sun Feb 18, 2024 8:00 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Small Cap Value - US/International
Replies: 25
Views: 2399

Re: Small Cap Value - US/International

masterofcoin wrote: Fri Feb 16, 2024 1:56 pm I appreciate all responses. Understood that 100% SCV is not advisable.

Respectfully, no one gave a direct answer to my question. I included risk parity and global all cap composition to aid in AVUV/AVDV allocation recommendations. If confined to those two ETFs, what would be your recommended split? Why?
Why not start at global Market Cap?
Say 60/30/10 US/Developed Int/Emerging

If you DO NOT want emerging, 60/40 US/Developed
by donaldfair71
Fri Feb 09, 2024 12:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Einhorn: Value is not working
Replies: 116
Views: 11368

Re: Einhorn: Value is not working

RyeBourbon wrote: Fri Feb 09, 2024 11:31 am
donaldfair71 wrote: Fri Feb 09, 2024 11:02 am There's some delicious irony that his interviewer once wrote an entire article covering the "Death of Equities" right before the greatest bull market in equities we have ever seen.
I wonder how many people knew at the time that the author was 18 years old.
Interesting, and impressive for BR. I always had heard he was this very dynamic and achieved writer, and I know that he has mentioned (perhaps in jest?) that the article wasn't really supposed to be what it wound up being.
by donaldfair71
Fri Feb 09, 2024 11:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Einhorn: Value is not working
Replies: 116
Views: 11368

Re: Einhorn: Value is not working

There's some delicious irony that his interviewer once wrote an entire article covering the "Death of Equities" right before the greatest bull market in equities we have ever seen.
by donaldfair71
Fri Feb 09, 2024 10:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Einhorn: Value is not working
Replies: 116
Views: 11368

Re: Einhorn: Value is not working

Quite honestly, Value hasn't been working at least when you compare it to Growth. FANG, FAANG, MAMAA, The Magnificent Seven, whatever you want to call them have driven home the point that US High Tech is driving the markets. Hence Growth outperforms Value and US outperforms International. Hard to say if the markets have fundamentally changed or if Value will have its day again. People have been talking about how terrible Value has been, that isn't true, Value has been doing just fine; it is the comparisons with Growth that are getting people frustrated. So for now Growth investing and passive indexing are winning, Value has done fairly well but just hasn't kept up. If the author is frustrated, he isn't alone. It might well be that the mark...
by donaldfair71
Fri Feb 09, 2024 10:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Einhorn: Value is not working
Replies: 116
Views: 11368

Re: Einhorn: Value is not working

ivgrivchuck wrote: Thu Feb 08, 2024 4:00 pm Summary:
- His stock picks aren't working
- He is frustrated
- Index funds are to blame
Kind of took it the same way.

I gave his argument credit and listened attentively until he referenced Michael Green as someone who showed him the light on this.
by donaldfair71
Wed Jan 31, 2024 4:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")
Replies: 5214
Views: 829741

Re: USA v International - WSJ article

the_wiki wrote: Wed Jan 31, 2024 12:08 am The problem is that many are investing for 30, 40, 50, even 70 years.

How can anyone predict US dominance for that long? Would you tell an 18 year old to invest like that?
No.
by donaldfair71
Sun Jan 28, 2024 7:33 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio Review please - Small-Cap Tilt GeoBuffett V1.2
Replies: 23
Views: 2218

Re: Portfolio Review please - Small-Cap Tilt GeoBuffett V1.2

You can extend backtests on the DFA funds by using their MF equivalents:

DFSVX
DISVX
DFEVX
by donaldfair71
Tue Jan 16, 2024 5:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Where does the loyalty to Vanguard come from?
Replies: 72
Views: 6406

Re: Where does the loyalty to Vanguard come from?

AlohaBill wrote: Mon Jan 15, 2024 9:50 pm Really, Puma? Rot? Really? :confused
I can only use personal experience as a judge, and I’ve had nothing but positive experiences with VG.
by donaldfair71
Thu Jan 11, 2024 5:08 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Delaying SS - The math doesn't seem that great.
Replies: 25
Views: 5974

Re: Delaying SS - The math doesn't seem that great.

The math shouldn't be that great. It's supposed to be relatively neutral, at least for one earner. For a couple, if the two benefits are significantly different, there is a bit of advantage to delaying the higher benefit because of the survivor factor (survivor gets the higher of the two benefits). The "longevity insurance" aspect is a tradeoff, not a free lunch. You don't do the delay because you expect to gain financially, you do it to protect against the case where you live an unusually long life and might otherwise run short of money. If you consider the delay to be roughly neutral, it can still offer some potential benefit for space to do some additional Roth conversion, if that is possible/desirable to you. The bolded part ...
by donaldfair71
Wed Jan 10, 2024 8:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is the reason why hedge funds / managers lose to the S&P 500 because they’re forced to make short term decisions?
Replies: 81
Views: 9547

Re: Is the reason why hedge funds / managers lose to the S&P 500 because they’re forced to make short term decisions?

I can't add much more to the thread, don't know enough about hedge funds to really reliably add. One thing I have seen in the posts is the idea that returns need/should be benchmarked to the SP500. As someone in a state pension system mentioned in this thread, and is still over a decade away from drawing, I don't believe I would feel safe at all with all the monies in something so volatile. Would outperform a 60/40, and likely the hedge fund universe over time, but I would be afraid that the market would remain irrational longer than the system can remain solvent. Which leads to the next question, and my quick google search yielded not a whole lot, what is the appropriate benchmark that might be considered a Boglehead-approved, investable a...
by donaldfair71
Mon Jan 08, 2024 10:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ronald Read the Janitor who amassed 8 million
Replies: 104
Views: 24451

Re: Ronald Reed the Janitor who amassed 8 million

To some people, living below means and saving the difference is just natural to do. No more or less than folks who like to run/work out and eat healthy wind up being a pretty good physical shape. The process is the goal and enjoyment, the destination happens to be wealth for the janitor or great health for the runner. But it isn't work at all, or hard. Scorpion and the Frog stuff.
by donaldfair71
Mon Dec 25, 2023 7:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How does Fidelity make money if offering free trades
Replies: 34
Views: 5512

Re: How does Fidelity make money if offering free trades

Mountain Doc wrote: Mon Dec 25, 2023 3:26 pm
donaldfair71 wrote: Mon Dec 25, 2023 3:14 pm This may or may not answer your question, but I just assume that Vanguard happily executes my ETF purchases for the pennies they get in bid/ask spread.
I think the bid/ask spread is going to market makers, not brokers.
Good point.
by donaldfair71
Mon Dec 25, 2023 3:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How does Fidelity make money if offering free trades
Replies: 34
Views: 5512

Re: How does Fidelity make money if offering free trades

This may or may not answer your question, but I just assume that Vanguard happily executes my ETF purchases for the pennies they get in bid/ask spread.

Seems like it was a lifetime ago where I’d have to also include a $7 fee for every purchase of non-VG ETFs. Guess it’s been several years.
by donaldfair71
Fri Dec 15, 2023 3:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AVUV surges past 2021 high
Replies: 42
Views: 7828

Re: AVUV surges past 2021 high

Whakamole wrote: Fri Dec 15, 2023 3:51 pm DFSV is also at an all-time high... very happy to be holding it.

The international version DISV has recovered quite nicely as well.
Very good fund, I would use it just as likely as AVUV. Going to behave similarly over the long haul. Same with DISV/AVDV.
by donaldfair71
Fri Dec 15, 2023 3:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AVUV surges past 2021 high
Replies: 42
Views: 7828

Re: AVUV surges past 2021 high

JSPECO9 wrote: Fri Dec 15, 2023 2:20 pm Are Bogleheads comfortable holding AVUV for life? What are the chances of this becoming a significant part of your portfolio and then going to 0 or Avantis going out of business? Is there a realistic chance of that happening? What happens then?
I am, but it’s part of a bigger slice of SV I allocate to in my portfolio.

If it becomes a significant part of my portfolio, I rebalance out of it. My concerns for Avantis itself going out of business? I would consider that risk to be similar to any of the fund companies going out of business. One I don’t worry much about, but if I did, I don’t know how I’d invest in any fund or ETF.
by donaldfair71
Fri Dec 15, 2023 2:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Multifactor fund VFMF has had a bad year
Replies: 189
Views: 24242

Re: Vanguard Multifactor fund VFMF has had a bad year

It's nearly the end of 2023. How are we feeling about VFMF? Personally, I need to decide whether to invest new money in it to get it up to my target allocation, or start thinking about other funds. Backtest, 70/30, vs. VTI: https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&sl=1buhPesd7cRJWvxBcuV3tN IMO VFMF has done a great job of consistently targeting the factors it is designed to (quality/value/momentum). I would not use short term performance to judge a factor strategy, if you're concerned on ~5 year time frame, better to just invest in total market. Bingo. What we want to know is whether or not it’s achieving exposure(s) intended by the fund. I don't know, but I bought the fund when it was new and still have it. My impres...
by donaldfair71
Mon Dec 11, 2023 5:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Multifactor fund VFMF has had a bad year
Replies: 189
Views: 24242

Re: Vanguard Multifactor fund VFMF has had a bad year

HippoSir wrote: Mon Dec 11, 2023 2:46 pm
foosball wrote: Mon Dec 11, 2023 2:03 pm It's nearly the end of 2023. How are we feeling about VFMF? Personally, I need to decide whether to invest new money in it to get it up to my target allocation, or start thinking about other funds.

Backtest, 70/30, vs. VTI:
https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/bac ... WvxBcuV3tN
IMO VFMF has done a great job of consistently targeting the factors it is designed to (quality/value/momentum). I would not use short term performance to judge a factor strategy, if you're concerned on ~5 year time frame, better to just invest in total market.
Bingo. What we want to know is whether or not it’s achieving exposure(s) intended by the fund.
by donaldfair71
Sat Nov 25, 2023 7:49 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Sold All Bond Funds to follow Individual Treasury Ladder Strategy
Replies: 99
Views: 9614

Re: Sold All Bond Funds to follow Individual Treasury Ladder Strategy

In order to maintain the average duration of the bond index and yield associated with the duration, bonds need to be sold before maturity in an intermediate bond fund which results in a realized loss in a rising rate environment. I would never sell a treasury note and realize a loss before maturity in a rising rate environment. It really doesn't matter. As soon as yields go up, the yield of your existing bond goes up. Some of that yield will be coupon, some will be recovery of face value. But your $1,000 yielding 3% is now $900 yielding 4% or whatever, and it doesn't matter if you exchange that bond for a longer maturity bond today or next year. Please explain what I'm missing here and why my calculation is not resulting in similar return....
by donaldfair71
Wed Nov 22, 2023 5:03 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Hey Men, what are you wearing to the gym?
Replies: 123
Views: 17391

Re: Hey Men, what are you wearing to the gym?

T shirt and pocketed mesh shorts have served me well for going on a quarter century.
by donaldfair71
Mon Nov 20, 2023 4:31 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Do you rebalance with new money, or do you stick with set percentage based contribution?
Replies: 16
Views: 1079

Re: Do you rebalance with new money, or do you stick with set percentage based contribution?

I contribute set amounts then rebalance in the Summer. Just works best for me but not right for everyone.
by donaldfair71
Wed Nov 15, 2023 5:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30/70 is as good as 60/40
Replies: 179
Views: 25952

Re: 30/70 is as good as 60/40

sambb wrote: Wed Nov 15, 2023 4:56 am i think these calculators are based on past results, but past results have no bearing on future performance or results. Bonds or stocks might behave differently.
Yep.

And in the case of bonds, as we found out in 2022, they were all but guaranteed to behave differently. “Return free risk”.
by donaldfair71
Mon Nov 13, 2023 2:22 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How much does your employer sponsered health insurance cost you?
Replies: 85
Views: 7960

Re: How much does your employer sponsered health insurance cost you?

It’s about 62/month.

My wife and I get a discount by working in the same school district. If either of us left, would vault to about 260/month. 3 kids, but they don’t increase the cost at all.

This is for Anthem Healthkeepers HMO.
by donaldfair71
Fri Nov 10, 2023 4:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 8% SWR!
Replies: 112
Views: 13055

Re: 8% SWR!

If you retire at 65, pick up some consulting or other extras, have low expenses, SS and/or a pension, live to expected age of 80, 8% could be conservative. Listen to the clip from the beginning -- he was giving this advice to a 30 year old. The guy was planing FI base on 3% withrawls and Dave to him to plan for 12% returns in deciding when he could quit his job. It's hard to imagine a more irresponsible answer to a guy with $100k in assets who is 30. But if you follow it to the end, he tells the guy to stay on the Ramsey plan. More specifically, to stay on the plan to save 15% towards retirement until house is paid off and then increase savings at that point. So he says nutty stuff in his rants but gets back to a perfectly reasonable actio...
by donaldfair71
Thu Nov 09, 2023 9:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does the S&P 500 track Large Cap or TSM more closely?
Replies: 22
Views: 1880

Re: Does the S&P 500 track Large Cap or TSM more closely?

When Tesla met all objective standards by the September reconstitution, yet wasn't added until December, they did just that: Used subjective opinion to not add them to the SP500. I will grant that S&P had gotten itself into a pickle. A key point to running a investable index fun is that you want it to be investable. That is, you don't want distortions. i.e., trading costs should be low. So whenever you reconstitute a index you do not want people (hedge funds, arbitrage traders, etc.) front running you and grabbing free profits. There is no way one could have added Tesla to the index without massive distortions. Note, other indexes didn't have this problem. The vast majority of large cap funds use the S&P index as their benchmark, i...
by donaldfair71
Thu Nov 09, 2023 9:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does the S&P 500 track Large Cap or TSM more closely?
Replies: 22
Views: 1880

Re: Does the S&P 500 track Large Cap or TSM more closely?

I think OP is referring to the example of TSLA being added to the S&P 500 in December 2020 when it was brought in as the 6th highest market cap company. The S&P committee members protected investors from a possible sham company for a long time. How should the S&P committee acted instead? After the abuses of index manipulation during the dot.com boom age the S&P put in some objective safeguards to prevent a similar case of abuse. 1 year positive earnings from core earnings. Objectively speaking, Tesla for a long time did not have positive core earnings. It was only profitable form a series of one off expectational actions that, in the words of Tesla, were not expected to be repeated in the future. Are you suggesting that the...
by donaldfair71
Wed Nov 08, 2023 7:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Vanguard STAR Fund still relevant in 2023?
Replies: 56
Views: 12166

Re: Is Vanguard STAR Fund still relevant in 2023?

$21.5 billion in net assets as of 9/30/2023. Peter Lynch's darling of the 1980s Fidelity Magellan still has $26B in it, and it is 0.52% expense ratio fund that holds Microsoft, Amazon, NVIDIA, Alphabet, and Meta as Top 5 holdings. It would be interesting to see what STAR's actual top holdings were by company not by fund. Copy/Pasted so please excuse layout: Microsoft Corp(USD) MSFT 2.06 -- Info Tech Vanguard STAR Inv (USD) VGSTX 2.06 2023-09-30 -- Amazon.com Inc(USD) AMZN 1.20 -- Cons Disc Vanguard STAR Inv (USD) VGSTX 1.20 2023-09-30 -- NVIDIA Corp(USD) NVDA 1.03 -- Info Tech Vanguard STAR Inv (USD) VGSTX 1.03 2023-09-30 -- Apple Inc(USD) AAPL 0.98 -- Info Tech Vanguard STAR Inv (USD) VGSTX 0.98 2023-09-30 -- Eli Lilly and Co(USD) LLY 0.8...
by donaldfair71
Mon Nov 06, 2023 12:40 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: On the fence of adding small cap value
Replies: 49
Views: 6975

Re: On the fence of adding small cap value

First time poster I've been on the fence about Adding a tilt toward small cap value. As of the moment I am very happy with my asset allocation. I just started getting into the low cost index fund investing space about a year and half ago. As of the moment I'm 80/20 US/Intl with zero bonds (yes i'm aware of the risk) I'm also 28 as well. My 401k has ample amount of Fidelity funds to allow me to mirror that AA across accounts using FXAIX/FTIHX. I've been thinking of adding AVUV at about 25% to be at 55% FXAIX, 25%AVUV and 20% FTIHX. I would hope it would add about 0.5-1.0 increase in returns over 30+ years as well as some added diversification. My concerns are though, I would only want to add AVUV and not any of Fidelitys small cap value fun...
by donaldfair71
Wed Nov 01, 2023 7:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: William Bernstein on TIPS, asset allocation, and four deep risks
Replies: 189
Views: 30090

Re: William Bernstein on TIPS, asset allocation, and four deep risks

Being able to buy small amounts of fixed maturity TIPS through iShares is an excellent point, thanks for bringing that up. But once you have enough to meet the secondary market minimums, you're better off with a ladder, of course. I think a lot of people are just afraid to learn how to navigate the brokerage sites' Treasury trading menu. And, of course, you can buy small amounts at auction, but only for 5, 10, and 30 years. The best part of a ladder is it's fire and forget. You show the maturities to the kids, and they can see where your HOA dues are coming from. It's a lot simpler than teaching them how to rebalance your TIPS funds to match your life expectancy. First off, loved the episode and all your writings. You should know that you’...
by donaldfair71
Sun Oct 29, 2023 8:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: William Bernstein on TIPS, asset allocation, and four deep risks
Replies: 189
Views: 30090

Re: William Bernstein on TIPS, asset allocation, and four deep risks

Being able to buy small amounts of fixed maturity TIPS through iShares is an excellent point, thanks for bringing that up. But once you have enough to meet the secondary market minimums, you're better off with a ladder, of course. I think a lot of people are just afraid to learn how to navigate the brokerage sites' Treasury trading menu. And, of course, you can buy small amounts at auction, but only for 5, 10, and 30 years. The best part of a ladder is it's fire and forget. You show the maturities to the kids, and they can see where your HOA dues are coming from. It's a lot simpler than teaching them how to rebalance your TIPS funds to match your life expectancy. First off, loved the episode and all your writings. You should know that you’...
by donaldfair71
Sun Oct 29, 2023 5:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Considering shift from Avantis AVGE over to Vanguard VTI/VXUS
Replies: 11
Views: 2203

Re: Considering shift from Avantis AVGE over to Vanguard VTI/VXUS

When the value-tilted all-equity-markets Avantis AVGE fund became available, I thought it would be an easy single fund solution that could take some of the thought and worry out of rebalancing. So I made it the majority of my taxable equity allocation. Now a year later, I'm second guessing if a semi-managed fund at a 0.23-0.25% ER with a factor tilt is really the right approach for a long-term taxable account. Once I've built up significant capital gains, I will be unable to easily adjust this position given the tax implications. I'm sure the fact that AVGE has underperformed a 70/30 total US / international stock market index by ~3% doesn't help the perception, though I recognize that's largely in the noise. My AVGE position has now cross...
by donaldfair71
Fri Oct 27, 2023 8:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fidelity to copy Vanguard's dual ETF / MF expired patent
Replies: 61
Views: 6481

Re: Fidelity to copy Vanguard's dual ETF / MF expired patent

I believe this is #2 See: DFA applying to have ETF as share class of mutual fund The old open ended mutual fund shops with captive shareholders are looking to stave off long-term loss of assets. I can only hope the SEC approves this. It can only be good for investors. I guess all that is left is competing on advice services and customer care. There is almost not moat left anywhere in the fund management business. Zero fees is truly where we'll end up in the relatively near future. Really, there doesn't seem to be much money left on the table for those poor croupiers (w/ a nod to Jack). BTW, I think we can assume the the open ended mutual fund is essentially extinct and will die with the last Boomer (or maybe GenXer). Love for this to happe...
by donaldfair71
Thu Oct 26, 2023 8:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fidelity to copy Vanguard's dual ETF / MF expired patent
Replies: 61
Views: 6481

Re: Fidelity to copy Vanguard's dual ETF / MF expired patent

Love for this to happen, but as long as MFs can keep their monopoly on workplace retirement plans, I worry that they’ll always be with us. My MegaCorp plan allows 99% of all assets to be held in the brokerage option and 100% of that can be ETFs. It is just a matter of time before that monopoly is broken too. It just a matter of the plan sponsor choosing the option to provide a brokerage window/option. Like I said, I hope to heck it’s true and you’re right. I know in my workplace plan, we have a brokerage option in our 403b but legally they’re not permitted to use ETFs even though we have a brokerage option. Of course 457 plans can hold ETFs but our investment committee feels that that’s just a step too far in allowing folks the freedom the...
by donaldfair71
Thu Oct 26, 2023 8:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fidelity to copy Vanguard's dual ETF / MF expired patent
Replies: 61
Views: 6481

Re: Fidelity to copy Vanguard's dual ETF / MF expired patent

I believe this is #2 See: DFA applying to have ETF as share class of mutual fund The old open ended mutual fund shops with captive shareholders are looking to stave off long-term loss of assets. I can only hope the SEC approves this. It can only be good for investors. I guess all that is left is competing on advice services and customer care. There is almost not moat left anywhere in the fund management business. Zero fees is truly where we'll end up in the relatively near future. Really, there doesn't seem to be much money left on the table for those poor croupiers (w/ a nod to Jack). BTW, I think we can assume the the open ended mutual fund is essentially extinct and will die with the last Boomer (or maybe GenXer). Love for this to happe...
by donaldfair71
Tue Oct 17, 2023 9:22 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: International Small Cap Value?
Replies: 29
Views: 4568

Re: International Small Cap Value?

I use AVDV, Avantis International Dev SCV. It serves all the purposes I want it to serve.

Dimensional’s ETF, while new, has a long-established track record as a Mutual Fund. If you want to approximate the exposures it might deliver, you can use DISVX as a proxy for historic attributes.
by donaldfair71
Tue Oct 17, 2023 8:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: High TIPS Yields are a Retiree's Best Friend - John Reckenthaler
Replies: 62
Views: 9942

Re: High TIPS Yields are a Retiree's Best Friend - John Reckenthaler

Stormbringer wrote: Tue Oct 17, 2023 8:23 pm
TipsQuestions wrote: Tue Oct 17, 2023 7:28 pm The only question, is how much of your portfolio to devote to such a ladder?
We are laddering enough so that, when combined with Social Security, our basic retirement expenses are covered. It just seems like such a no-brainer.

We can then be more aggressive with the rest.
Seems like a wonderful plan. A no-brainer, indeed.
by donaldfair71
Mon Oct 16, 2023 8:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: WSJ: Factor ETFs Fail to Deliver Their Promised Returns
Replies: 207
Views: 16373

Re: WSJ: Factor ETFs Fail to Deliver Their Promised Returns

For anyone that is interested: https://www.wsj.com/articles/dfa-funds-are-booming-but-that-adviser-fee-matters-1488769801 It turns out that in the past the DFA funds did not overperform after advisor fees (~1%). You would need to argue that your DFA advisor was adding services you otherwise would have paid for to justify the lagging performance. That could definitely be true for some people. The 2021 fund fee schedule is below. A ~1% advisor fee would be added to this historically. The fund fee was further reduced by 13% for 2022, but we know past fees were at least this big. Dimensional Funds start with a D and Vanguard funds start with a V. Performance is Jan 2000 to March 31 2021. stated, expense, net performance Small Value DFSVX 10.62...
by donaldfair71
Mon Oct 16, 2023 4:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: WSJ: Factor ETFs Fail to Deliver Their Promised Returns
Replies: 207
Views: 16373

Re: WSJ: Factor ETFs Fail to Deliver Their Promised Returns

This is the factor equivalent to the "Death of Equities" pronouncement. Load up, 'cause factors are about to go on a massive bull run. Surely all the factors can't have a bull run at the same time. If 'bull run' means 'outperforming the total market'. This is an important and prescient post, amid much longer ones, that I fear will get drowned out. There’s a lot of discussion re: factors where using them could lead to some disastrous outcome. That just hasn’t been shown to be the case. While SP500 has delivered, what, 13% the last decade, even a person who’s been in all value, even in all small value, has compounded at about the historic market return. I think sometimes folks think “disaster” as absolute rather than relative. Now ...
by donaldfair71
Sun Oct 15, 2023 8:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: WSJ: Factor ETFs Fail to Deliver Their Promised Returns
Replies: 207
Views: 16373

Re: WSJ: Factor ETFs Fail to Deliver Their Promised Returns

This is the factor equivalent to the "Death of Equities" pronouncement. Load up, 'cause factors are about to go on a massive bull run. Surely all the factors can't have a bull run at the same time. If 'bull run' means 'outperforming the total market'. This is an important and prescient post, amid much longer ones, that I fear will get drowned out. There’s a lot of discussion re: factors where using them could lead to some disastrous outcome. That just hasn’t been shown to be the case. While SP500 has delivered, what, 13% the last decade, even a person who’s been in all value, even in all small value, has compounded at about the historic market return. I think sometimes folks think “disaster” as absolute rather than relative. Now ...
by donaldfair71
Thu Oct 12, 2023 7:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If dividend irrelevance is true, then why did ...?
Replies: 144
Views: 19357

Re: If dividend irrelevance is true, then why did ...?

How dividends affect share is of course up the market. The clear implication from this article was that this after-hours announcement of an increased dividend that a positive impact of the share price. Focusing solely on that, as I stated in the original post, how can you possibly draw the conclusion that dividend changes are no effect on share price, when this is only one of thousands of examples of dividend announcements doing just that? Before looking for an explanation it’s important to make sure that this effect actually exists. A statistical analysis of S&P 500 companies’ price movements after dividend change announcements over the last 20 years would be a good step in that direction. The logical next step in believing what the O...