Search found 533 matches

by donaldfair71
Fri Dec 13, 2019 11:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Three-Fund Portfolio
Replies: 2665
Views: 1740631

Re: The Three-Fund Portfolio

Just came across this thread. I don't understand why should one invest in Total International Stock ETF (VXUS). Since inception, it has underperformed even BND, while the risk profile is much much higher than BND. Currently I am 90% VTI (have been since 2013) and reaped the benefits, but would like...
by donaldfair71
Fri Dec 13, 2019 11:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Index Myth
Replies: 47
Views: 4759

Re: The Index Myth

Can't active outperformance during bear markets be explained partially by the cash positions that actively-managed funds tend to have, regardless of fees?

I guess the same can be said during bull markets in reverse. Doesn't explain all alpha, or alpha lost, but explains some of it.
by donaldfair71
Sat Dec 07, 2019 11:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Total Stock vs. S&P 500
Replies: 54
Views: 5152

Re: Total Stock vs. S&P 500

Both here, by necessity.

S&P500 in my workplace plans, as it's what is offered.
Total stock in taxable and 529 plans
by donaldfair71
Thu Nov 14, 2019 7:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SP500 is very top heavy right now
Replies: 134
Views: 11990

Re: SP500 is very top heavy right now

The concentration at 17% doesn’t bother me at all either. This seems like a more than reasonable amount of an AA to allot to these companies 1.5-3.5% of total. Also, there’s no way I could do better stock picking (or meddling around with tilting) than what my portfolio has done indexing to the tota...
by donaldfair71
Thu Nov 14, 2019 7:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SP500 is very top heavy right now
Replies: 134
Views: 11990

Re: SP500 is very top heavy right now

This is a pretty cool site that lets you see holdings of the S&P 500 by year: https://etfdb.com/history-of-the-s-and-p-500/#1999 Top 5 in 1999: Microsoft GE Cisco Wal-Mart Exxon Mobil And by owning the index you automatically rebalanced from these to the new list without taxable side effects. This ...
by donaldfair71
Thu Nov 07, 2019 5:21 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard suggesting I move to ETF's
Replies: 40
Views: 3790

Re: Vanguard suggesting I move to ETF's

I'm surprised that Vanguard is actually recommending ETFs over mutual funds. I would have guessed that they would have been neutral. I’ve come to opinion that Vanguard would prefer other brokerages have the customer service / brokerage responsibility. Same. I think, in Vanguard’s perfect world, the...
by donaldfair71
Wed Nov 06, 2019 10:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2020 I Bonds: what's your plan?
Replies: 19
Views: 1682

Re: 2020 I Bonds: what's your plan?

The fixed rate changed to 0.2% on Nov. 1. So for 2020 , are you planning on buying I Bonds with the 0.2% fixed rate at the beginning of the year, or waiting to see what the fixed rate will be on May 1? If you plan to buy your max I Bond allocation, you should not buy I Bonds in January. The first t...
by donaldfair71
Tue Nov 05, 2019 9:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is it OK to take less risk and spend more money once you’ve reached your goals even if you are young?
Replies: 63
Views: 5602

Re: Is it OK to take less risk and spend more money once you’ve reached your goals even if you are young?

Just keep in the back of your mind the idea that, the more you increase spending, the bigger your FI number increases. At the same time, your savings rate decreases. It’s kind of a double whammy in that way. You need more while saving less. If FI isn’t part of your plan, then disregard. I’m sorry b...
by donaldfair71
Tue Nov 05, 2019 9:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Saudi Aramco, a microcosm of International Equities issues.
Replies: 38
Views: 3036

Re: Saudi Aramco, a microcosm of International Equities issues.

Whoever holds an international index fund "will participate". So what ? It seems like you know something others don't and Aramco's actual value is in fact a lot lower than what the market estimates presently. Red flag number #1. Do I dare know something the market does not? Let's talk about this id...
by donaldfair71
Mon Nov 04, 2019 7:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is it OK to take less risk and spend more money once you’ve reached your goals even if you are young?
Replies: 63
Views: 5602

Re: Is it OK to take less risk and spend more money once you’ve reached your goals even if you are young?

Just keep in the back of your mind the idea that, the more you increase spending, the bigger your FI number increases. At the same time, your savings rate decreases. It’s kind of a double whammy in that way. You need more while saving less.

If FI isn’t part of your plan, then disregard.
by donaldfair71
Sat Nov 02, 2019 5:38 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Still don’t understand Bond Index Funds..
Replies: 10
Views: 2186

Re: Still don’t understand Bond Index Funds..

Individual bonds have individual issuer risks. Diversified bond index funds are designed to avoid single issuer defaults . Diversified bond index funds are designed to spread the risk of any one single issuer default from having a significant impact on the performance of the fund. An index fund is ...
by donaldfair71
Wed Oct 30, 2019 2:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Paul Merriman: This strategy beats a total stock market fund]
Replies: 173
Views: 13874

Re: [Paul Merriman: This strategy beats a total stock market fund]

Not even near to being on topic, but saving more is an easy way to have extra portfolio growth. Yes, that is obvious, but more growth is the desired result from all of the above portfolio yoga. Individuals could focus on more savings instead of the emphasis in this thread of trying to mine extra mo...
by donaldfair71
Wed Oct 30, 2019 8:23 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Changing Vanguard Funds
Replies: 10
Views: 1426

Re: Changing Vanguard Funds

Taylor what is it about the Target Date funds that are unsurpassed?\ I'm not Taylor but I agree with him. One can treat feeding money into this fund with the same simplicity of funding a bank account. It is managed for you from now until the day you die should you want it to. It will get more conse...
by donaldfair71
Tue Oct 29, 2019 10:40 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: I’m done with index funds
Replies: 229
Views: 28472

Re: I’m done with index funds

OP, it appears the consensus here is overwhelmingly against your proposed strategy. I'm curious if your mind has been swayed by the responses or if you still plan to go ahead with your strategy? I'm also interested in OP's updated decision process, if it's changed. I can't get over the 70bp per yea...
by donaldfair71
Tue Oct 29, 2019 10:35 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: I’m done with index funds
Replies: 229
Views: 28472

Re: I’m done with index funds

Cost People have pointed out that the .7% reduces one's return in a compound fashion. The counter argument is that unrealized capital gains also grows in a compound fashion, which has to be paid at the terminus. As long as the fee is lower than the long term capital gain taxes you win. As some have...
by donaldfair71
Mon Oct 28, 2019 12:18 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Just surrendered my whole life policy!
Replies: 13
Views: 1253

Re: Just surrendered my whole life policy!

Yes, the salesperson is still our "financial advisor" as we actually haven't met for almost 2 years and I have discovered bogleheads in the interim. We'll see whether he still is after our next meeting. While we may no longer needs his "advice," he does have valuable connections that we may utilize...
by donaldfair71
Sat Oct 26, 2019 7:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: BOSVX vs IJS for SCV Loading?
Replies: 55
Views: 2128

Re: BOSVX vs IJS for SCV Loading?

With regard to BOSVX versus IJS, I think a minor but significant point for tillers is the following. When one uses a fund with deeper exposures to size and value, that means he needs to take on less market beta risk (the risk he is trying to diversify away from in the first place) to get his desire...
by donaldfair71
Fri Oct 25, 2019 9:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: BOSVX vs IJS for SCV Loading?
Replies: 55
Views: 2128

Re: BOSVX vs IJS for SCV Loading?

Writing for the forum’s perspective as I know you’ve studied this. So I did go ahead and left an investment advisor but have kept the majority of the portfolio intact, with the exception of Muni’s which I switched to MUB (better credit rating, broader, cheaper). The one I’m questioning pulling out ...
by donaldfair71
Thu Oct 24, 2019 8:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Paul Merriman: This strategy beats a total stock market fund]
Replies: 173
Views: 13874

Re: Investing in the largest 10 companies?

Why do I want 20% of my money in the largest 10 companies? rascott: It makes me happy to know that at least 20% of my money is invested in the largest and most successful companies in the United States. :happy Best wishes Taylor I think everybody would be happy with it when things are going as well...
by donaldfair71
Wed Oct 23, 2019 2:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Paul Merriman: This strategy beats a total stock market fund]
Replies: 173
Views: 13874

Re: [Paul Merriman: This strategy beats a total stock market fund]

I'm just a layman but I'm unconvinced. 1. If I own Total Stock Market and Total Int'l Stock Market then I already own every single equity in Merriman's more complicated portfolio, just in somewhat different weights. 2. The market has already valued every single equity at their current values. Any o...
by donaldfair71
Wed Oct 23, 2019 11:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Dogs of the Dow" in a Roth IRA with Zero Commissions
Replies: 52
Views: 3463

Re: "Dogs of the Dow" in a Roth IRA with Zero Commissions

OP, you are well aware of the benefits of diversification. If you are looking for the board's blessing on this, you're not going to get it. As far as attempts to beat the market go, I would say that this is not the best, but not the worst either. You can always try it and see what happens. I would ...
by donaldfair71
Wed Oct 23, 2019 11:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Paul Merriman: This strategy beats a total stock market fund]
Replies: 173
Views: 13874

Re: [Paul Merriman: This strategy beats a total stock market fund]

I'm just a layman but I'm unconvinced. 1. If I own Total Stock Market and Total Int'l Stock Market then I already own every single equity in Merriman's more complicated portfolio, just in somewhat different weights. 2. The market has already valued every single equity at their current values. Any o...
by donaldfair71
Wed Oct 23, 2019 7:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Dogs of the Dow" in a Roth IRA with Zero Commissions
Replies: 52
Views: 3463

Re: "Dogs of the Dow" in a Roth IRA with Zero Commissions

Dogs of the Dow is a simple strategy that works. This is why I considered it with a small portion of under 5% of my net worth to it. The 10 companies are not random unknown companies. If any of them failed the S&P 500 would drop significantly. If only 5%, then why bother? Also, I would take excepti...
by donaldfair71
Wed Oct 23, 2019 7:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Paul Merriman: This strategy beats a total stock market fund]
Replies: 173
Views: 13874

Re: [Paul Merriman: This strategy beats a total stock market fund]

"TSM is diversified because it's the wisdom of the masses. 0.001% smallcap is what the market has deigned to be correct" - if TSM is so diversified why did it follow the Nasdaq off a cliff and go nowhere from 1999 to 2013? Megacap indexing does have flaws which can be managed. How many years of "go...
by donaldfair71
Wed Oct 23, 2019 4:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Dogs of the Dow" in a Roth IRA with Zero Commissions
Replies: 52
Views: 3463

Re: "Dogs of the Dow" in a Roth IRA with Zero Commissions

I don't agree with putting all my net worth into total market index funds. This prevents me from having the opportunity to outperform. I don't like to preclude myself of any opportunities to do better than the average. I reach for high performance. I don’t understand. As of a few months ago the Dog...
by donaldfair71
Tue Oct 22, 2019 12:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Paul Merriman: This strategy beats a total stock market fund]
Replies: 173
Views: 13874

Re: Paul Merriman article

I did talk with Paul once about his Ultimate Portfolio. I pointed him to the thread here that discusses the simplified version of that. Paul always likes to say if he finds a better portfolio he will change. The thread here is: Ultimate Buy and Hold - 8 slices vs 4 However, he never responded to th...
by donaldfair71
Tue Oct 22, 2019 8:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Paul Merriman: This strategy beats a total stock market fund]
Replies: 173
Views: 13874

Re: Paul Merriman article

I feel lost. I have listened to every one of his podcasts and thought that the goal of the 8 fund (and subsequent 4 fund invented here) was to have an equal (or just about equal) amount in the Morningstar style boxes that rep: Small/Mid/large Value/Blend/Growth Is it possible that this is what is me...
by donaldfair71
Tue Oct 22, 2019 8:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Paul Merriman: This strategy beats a total stock market fund]
Replies: 173
Views: 13874

Re: Paul Merriman article

I did talk with Paul once about his Ultimate Portfolio. I pointed him to the thread here that discusses the simplified version of that. Paul always likes to say if he finds a better portfolio he will change. The thread here is: Ultimate Buy and Hold - 8 slices vs 4 However, he never responded to th...
by donaldfair71
Wed Oct 09, 2019 10:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 'Stay the course' with international stock but give up on value?
Replies: 101
Views: 7109

Re: 'Stay the course' with international stock but give up on value?

What leads you to that conclusion? Would you consider a BH 3 Fund to have "enough" diversification? My question was related to your conclusion that diversification isn't in the control of investors: I'm wondering why you think that investors don't have control of portfolio diversification within re...
by donaldfair71
Wed Oct 09, 2019 10:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 'Stay the course' with international stock but give up on value?
Replies: 101
Views: 7109

Re: 'Stay the course' with international stock but give up on value?

I agree..... holding only SP500/ Total Market Index (same thing) is leaving a lot of possible diversification on the table. At least factor investors can point to historical returns as an argument for including them in a portfolio. That's one way to look at it. Another way is to look at it like the...
by donaldfair71
Wed Oct 09, 2019 9:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 'Stay the course' with international stock but give up on value?
Replies: 101
Views: 7109

Re: 'Stay the course' with international stock but give up on value?

I think that the options available to a lot of investors through their respective retirement accounts would lead one to believe that diversification isn't as much in the investor's control. What leads you to that conclusion? Would you consider a BH 3 Fund to have "enough" diversification? My questi...
by donaldfair71
Wed Oct 09, 2019 7:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 'Stay the course' with international stock but give up on value?
Replies: 101
Views: 7109

Re: 'Stay the course' with international stock but give up on value?

vineviz wrote:
Wed Oct 09, 2019 7:51 am
donaldfair71 wrote:
Wed Oct 09, 2019 7:39 am
I think that the options available to a lot of investors through their respective retirement accounts would lead one to believe that diversification isn't as much in the investor's control.
What leads you to that conclusion?
Would you consider a BH 3 Fund to have "enough" diversification?
by donaldfair71
Wed Oct 09, 2019 7:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 'Stay the course' with international stock but give up on value?
Replies: 101
Views: 7109

Re: 'Stay the course' with international stock but give up on value?

Owning a market cap weighted TSM index fund essentially removes all idiosyncratic (i.e. single company) risk, but it does nothing to diversify away from market beta. In fact, the only thing 'left' in such a fund is market beta. Whether market beta alone represents an adequate level of diversificati...
by donaldfair71
Wed Oct 09, 2019 7:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 'Stay the course' with international stock but give up on value?
Replies: 101
Views: 7109

Re: 'Stay the course' with international stock but give up on value?

SCV is essentially level with large cap US since March 09, it's just bounced around more. And value is supposedly doing better ex-US. Just relying on the S&P 500 alone for US stocks is a horrible strategy as we saw in the Dotcom bust. I agree..... holding only SP500/ Total Market Index (same thing)...
by donaldfair71
Fri Oct 04, 2019 10:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 'Stay the course' with international stock but give up on value?
Replies: 101
Views: 7109

Re: 'Stay the course' with international stock but give up on value?

SCV is essentially level with large cap US since March 09, it's just bounced around more. And value is supposedly doing better ex-US. Just relying on the S&P 500 alone for US stocks is a horrible strategy as we saw in the Dotcom bust. I agree..... holding only SP500/ Total Market Index (same thing)...
by donaldfair71
Thu Oct 03, 2019 10:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 'Stay the course' with international stock but give up on value?
Replies: 101
Views: 7109

Re: 'Stay the course' with international stock but give up on value?

I think you have a point. I am in the camp of "Gave up on factor tilting but not on International", and I can tell you my reasoning. Whether that's everyone else's I don't know. I acknowledge that long-term, through an entire cycle, factors have at least a 50/50 likelihood at outperformance of the a...
by donaldfair71
Wed Oct 02, 2019 6:07 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: VTI now has lower fees than VTSAX
Replies: 30
Views: 3758

Re: VTI now has lower fees than VTSAX

Even if it’s meaningless, why would anyone pay more than necessary? Please educate me. Not trying to "educate" you, I am not qualified to do any of that here. But here are some reasons one might use the MF>ETF in this case: - You like automated investing and your brokerage doesn't have the ability ...
by donaldfair71
Tue Oct 01, 2019 2:58 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: VTI now has lower fees than VTSAX
Replies: 30
Views: 3758

Re: VTI now has lower fees than VTSAX

Even if it’s meaningless, why would anyone pay more than necessary? Please educate me. Not trying to "educate" you, I am not qualified to do any of that here. But here are some reasons one might use the MF>ETF in this case: - You like automated investing and your brokerage doesn't have the ability ...
by donaldfair71
Tue Oct 01, 2019 2:50 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Mouse in the house
Replies: 46
Views: 4540

Re: Mouse in the house

Then one day several weeks later as we were lounging on the couch in front of the TV, a mouse apparently came to her attention. In a split-second, she'd leapt off the couch and was ALL over it. I'd never seen her move so fast.... Humans really are inferior to most other animals in terms of physical...
by donaldfair71
Tue Oct 01, 2019 1:57 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Retirement Class of 1998
Replies: 62
Views: 10855

Re: Retirement Class of 1998 updated comments to 2019

2019 personal retirement update: We are doing well as our 21st retirement year ends today. We are now at 86 and 79 years of age. I feel healthy mentally and physically and am able to do most things as I did 30 years ago except that I won't get on the roof anymore, only on a step ladder to paint the...
by donaldfair71
Tue Oct 01, 2019 9:07 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: TSP: Moving out of G Fund to F?
Replies: 49
Views: 3488

Re: TSP: Moving out of G Fund to F?

As you mentioned above, the TSP investor has a choice between the G Fund and the F Fund. Neither is a bad choice. The F Fund will give you a little extra return, at the cost of a little extra volatility. This kind of statement continues to obfuscate the reality of the choice the investor has availa...
by donaldfair71
Tue Sep 24, 2019 10:17 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Garrett Fee Only
Replies: 18
Views: 2050

Re: Garrett Fee Only

If you just want someone to give you a one-over, look through your finances without paying so very much, try https://planvisionmn.com/.
by donaldfair71
Tue Sep 24, 2019 10:00 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Deleted
Replies: 262
Views: 21744

Re: A 'really good book' you did NOT enjoy

Millionaire Next Door.

I just didn't understand what the fuss was all about. Not bad, but I wasn't really shocked by any of it.
by donaldfair71
Fri Sep 20, 2019 9:21 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: $2k repairs on $12K car
Replies: 81
Views: 5418

Re: $2k repairs on $12K car

Are you going to buy a new car every time you need new brakes and battery? :oops: Seriously, these are not even "repairs" items, they are "regular maintaince". If this wasn't such a silly topic, I'd assume it's a troll. If OP is that concerned about maintenance, maybe car ownership isn't for them; ...
by donaldfair71
Sun Sep 15, 2019 8:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 5% Withdrawal Rate Recommended by US News Columnist
Replies: 141
Views: 12173

Re: 5% Withdrawal Rate Recommended by US News Columnist

Merriman talks about and endorses this strategy IF you have substantially more than you'll ever need (defined on safely being able to live on 1-2% withdrawal, I believe). Basically, take 5% out each and every year of the account value on a certain date. With that amount, live/give/do whatever you w...
by donaldfair71
Sun Sep 15, 2019 8:06 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Picture Quality of YouTube TV Signal vs. Cable TV Signal
Replies: 3
Views: 613

Re: Picture Quality of YouTube TV Signal vs. Cable TV Signal

There is no difference between the two at all *for me. I also have my Chromecast hardwired and the one place I use wifi I ran a power line right next to so that the signal never went far.
by donaldfair71
Thu Sep 12, 2019 7:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: UPDATE: Vanguard Target Date Fund almost always better than Edward Jones?
Replies: 36
Views: 3042

Re: UPDATE: Vanguard Target Date Fund almost always better than Edward Jones?

On average, and with all other things being equal, would those who choose a Vanguard Target Date fund, that matches the date they will need the money, almost always come out ahead of the average Edward Jones advising (assuming loads, fees, higher ERs, etc.)? UPDATE: The reason I ask, is because I o...
by donaldfair71
Thu Sep 12, 2019 7:41 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Calling all iPhone SE Bogleheads
Replies: 61
Views: 4957

Re: Calling all iPhone SE Bogleheads

Not sure what the question is but I don't know if I would agree with your statement that iphone SE is the phone of choice for bogleheads. A lot of bogleheads opt for much less expensive Android based phones that give you better performance for less money and then the bogleheads that aren't concerne...
by donaldfair71
Tue Sep 10, 2019 9:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 5% Withdrawal Rate Recommended by US News Columnist
Replies: 141
Views: 12173

Re: 5% Withdrawal Rate Recommended by US News Columnist

Merriman talks about and endorses this strategy IF you have substantially more than you'll ever need (defined on safely being able to live on 1-2% withdrawal, I believe). Basically, take 5% out each and every year of the account value on a certain date. With that amount, live/give/do whatever you wa...
by donaldfair71
Mon Sep 09, 2019 11:14 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Have you been doing better than your parents?
Replies: 30
Views: 2326

Re: Have you been doing better than your parents?

No idea how my parents did. Only part of their financial life I can relate to is that they paid for my undergrad. I have that as a goal for my 3 kids, because it helped me greatly, but they're 7/4/4 months, so a lot can change. They gave me a pretty happy childhood, so in that way, I probably can't ...