Search found 1458 matches

by gvsucavie03
Wed Sep 02, 2020 5:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 36221
Views: 4650904

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

I only just noticed that years ago, I had saved a bookmark to this posting by Trader007 that made a nice, specific prediction. I'd saved it meaning to check later to see if the prediction had been fulfilled. Better late than never. by Trader007 » Sat Dec 17, 2011 8:38 am Stock indices should continue down for several months now. Looks like end of February-end of March. Will be more specific later. Here's what actually happened: https://imgur.com/GfhagDA.png Over the entire period "end of February-end of March," the Vanguard Total Stock Market Index ETF, VTI, and the Vanguard S&P 500 Index ETF, VOO were always at least 10% higher in price than they were on the date of the prediction. (Since then, Trader007 has posted nothing f...
by gvsucavie03
Tue Sep 01, 2020 6:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Three-Fund Portfolio
Replies: 3895
Views: 2424145

Re: Basic 3 Fund Question

LXEX55 wrote: Tue Sep 01, 2020 2:09 pm Is the three fund portfolio also a good asset allocation once a person is retired, as opposed to saving for retirement?
The allocation of each fund is up to you. I hold 90% stocks and 10% bonds. 25% of stocks in international. I have at least 25 years until retirement. When I hit retirement, I'd like to be 50/50 and stay put.
by gvsucavie03
Mon Aug 31, 2020 5:40 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What are you listening to now
Replies: 5802
Views: 574267

Re: What are you listening to now

Renegade by Styx is on my agenda tomorrow in my pop music class. The students liked that :happy
by gvsucavie03
Mon Aug 31, 2020 5:37 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What is the best concert you ever witnessed?
Replies: 434
Views: 39237

Re: What is the best concert you ever witnessed?

I would have a hard time narrowing it down to one particular concert, so I'll just list a few that remain special in my mind: I thought of one more. In January of 2006, the Knoxville Symphony Orchestra performed "Fantasia on a Theme by Thomas Tallis", a work by Ralph Vaughn Williams. Listening to that work there in the Tennessee Theater was the only time ever that a piece of music literally brought tears of joy to my eyes. I love my recording I have of this tune. 5 Variants of Dives and Lazarus and Greensleeves are also on it (Academy of St. Martin in the Fields?) I saw the CSO play Pictures at an Exhibition live. I don't know if my ears will ever hear the ending of this piece the same way again. It was absolutely stunning. That ...
by gvsucavie03
Mon Aug 10, 2020 10:59 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Compare the state tax across states - California, Florida
Replies: 69
Views: 7254

Re: Compare the state tax across states - California, Florida

For many reasons, a retiree is best suited to leave Michigan...

6% sales tax
4.25% flat income tax (after personal exemptions of $4,050 per dependent)
Car insurance surcharge of about $70-100 per month
Gas tax
Property taxes
City income taxes
The myriad of miscellaneous fees charged for local and state government services

All of this and our roads are still mostly terrible. Cross the border or head to the UP or Canada and the roads are instantly better with cheaper gas both in IN and OH.

Pure Michigan.
by gvsucavie03
Sat Jul 25, 2020 8:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: In retirement, why not 100% Total Stock Market + Cash?
Replies: 53
Views: 6708

Re: In retirement, why not 100% Total Stock Market + Cash?

If your portfolio is large enough that dipping on a long down-turn isn't detrimental, then go for it. Perhaps the biggest factor is whether you can SWAN in a long, deep bear... It's easy to analyze on a spreadsheet/computer screen, but watching violent swings up and down (emphasis on the down) with your life savings is probably not where you would want to be. I heard a fantastic podcast on new research on SWR (yes, he maintained that starting at a 4% SWR is prudent) and the guest said that long term bonds provide the upswing when the market drops. You pull off of LT bonds in a bear, plus you get better returns than cash. He said that holding anything over about 2 years of expenses in cash is a drag on your overall financial picture. I belie...
by gvsucavie03
Sun Jul 12, 2020 6:08 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What are you listening to now
Replies: 5802
Views: 574267

Re: What are you listening to now

Bigger Pockets Money. Some great guests and topics!
by gvsucavie03
Thu Jul 09, 2020 9:42 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What are you listening to now
Replies: 5802
Views: 574267

Re: What are you listening to now

Crime in Sports podcast.
by gvsucavie03
Sun Jul 05, 2020 6:55 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: YoutubeTV subscription now $64.99/month
Replies: 174
Views: 21126

Re: Streaming TV (YouTube TV raising rates AGAIN)

Ouch. Why not go with an antenna? We receive about 50 channels, including all locals for $0 per month. You can add a DVR to live tv as well, if desired. Rural area, antenna would only get a few channels on a good day. Are you SURE? Go here: https://www.antennaweb.org Plug in your zip code. On the next page, you get a list of channels you can receive. Further down that page is a map, showing where the towers are (thus where to point the antenna), and most importantly what kind of antenna you need to get those channels. Alternatively, download Antenna Point app. It sometimes gives slightly different results. We have a ROKU television with OTA tuner and OTA channels via antenna are pretty well integrated. My wife and I don't miss cable at all...
by gvsucavie03
Wed Jul 01, 2020 6:11 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: YoutubeTV subscription now $64.99/month
Replies: 174
Views: 21126

Re: Streaming TV (YouTube TV raising rates AGAIN)

Ouch. Why not go with an antenna? We receive about 50 channels, including all locals for $0 per month. You can add a DVR to live tv as well, if desired. Rural area, antenna would only get a few channels on a good day. Are you SURE? Go here: https://www.antennaweb.org Plug in your zip code. On the next page, you get a list of channels you can receive. Further down that page is a map, showing where the towers are (thus where to point the antenna), and most importantly what kind of antenna you need to get those channels. Alternatively, download Antenna Point app. It sometimes gives slightly different results. We have a ROKU television with OTA tuner and OTA channels via antenna are pretty well integrated. My wife and I don't miss cable at all...
by gvsucavie03
Tue Jun 30, 2020 10:55 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: YoutubeTV subscription now $64.99/month
Replies: 174
Views: 21126

Re: Streaming TV (YouTube TV raising rates AGAIN)

runner3081 wrote: Tue Jun 30, 2020 10:52 pm Ouch.

Why not go with an antenna? We receive about 50 channels, including all locals for $0 per month.

You can add a DVR to live tv as well, if desired.
Rural area, antenna would only get a few channels on a good day.
by gvsucavie03
Tue Jun 30, 2020 10:54 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: YoutubeTV subscription now $64.99/month
Replies: 174
Views: 21126

Re: Streaming TV (YouTube TV raising rates AGAIN)

02nz wrote: Tue Jun 30, 2020 10:50 pm Sling TV, $30/mo. Meets your criteria, but local channels vary so check that, but I think it also works with an antenna for local channels. The DVR is only 10 hours but you can pay for more.
Thank you. $5/50hrs DVR. Not too bad. We can't do antenna here, but I do think you can get locals. I'll check or do a trial run.
by gvsucavie03
Tue Jun 30, 2020 10:47 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: YoutubeTV subscription now $64.99/month
Replies: 174
Views: 21126

Streaming TV options (YouTube TV raising rates AGAIN)

[Thread merged into here, see below. --LadyGeek]

Started $35/mo a couple years ago, went up to $49.99, going up to $64.99 in August. Time to move on.

1. Needs live TV
2. Needs local channels
3. Needs to be a streaming app (no box/cable set-up), multiple devices
4. Needs a good-sized cloud DVR (fast-forwarding ads preferred)
5. Needs to be less than $65/mo.
6. No Showtime, HBO, extra sports networks, etc.

No dice on digital antenna... Rural area, only a couple channels available.

What do you use? What do you like about it?

Thanks!
by gvsucavie03
Tue Jun 23, 2020 9:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 36221
Views: 4650904

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

TheTimeLord wrote: Tue Jun 23, 2020 9:21 pm
gvsucavie03 wrote: Tue Jun 23, 2020 9:15 pm Help me out... Price per share of, say, VTI is still trading $12-15 below the high in Feb. I say we're still behind, what am I missing?
The peak for the S&P was I believe 3,386 on Feb. 19th and today we closed at 3,131 so we are down about 7.5% from the peak. So yes we down since the peak.
Thanks!
by gvsucavie03
Tue Jun 23, 2020 9:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 36221
Views: 4650904

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Help me out... Price per share of, say, VTI is still trading $12-15 below the high in Feb. I say we're still behind, what am I missing?
by gvsucavie03
Tue Jun 16, 2020 9:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Who ever follows the “Top-Ranked” Financial Advisors on the radio?
Replies: 38
Views: 3989

Re: Who ever follows the “Top-Ranked” Financial Advisors on the radio?

I had to stop listening to Ric Edelman... Way too much sales pitch and all of his stories are fear mongering followed by a well-timed "if you are unsure, give us a call"
by gvsucavie03
Wed Jun 03, 2020 7:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 36221
Views: 4650904

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

theplayer11 wrote: Wed Jun 03, 2020 6:54 pm love to dig up some of those panic posts from a few months ago..might be good for a few laughs. I don't think the world ended.
Even with most of the world economy put to a grinding stand-still, we keep pushing forward.
by gvsucavie03
Wed Jun 03, 2020 3:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 36221
Views: 4650904

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Quick math as of today using VTI price as a gauge, FWIW...

Price as of today June 3: $158.35

Compared to the low on March 23 ($111.91), now up 41.5%

Compared to the high on February 19 ($172.17), now down only 8%

Might be a 90-day recovery, who knows. Just thought I'd share. :beer
by gvsucavie03
Tue Jun 02, 2020 8:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Single Favorite Mutual Fund
Replies: 102
Views: 14714

Re: Single Favorite Mutual Fund

LeslieSmiley wrote: Tue Jun 02, 2020 7:35 am
DoWahDaddy wrote: Tue Jul 30, 2013 1:27 pm Contrafund, outperformance over the S&P 500 for over 20 years is greatly appreciated, and is thus appropriate to maintain, Boglehead or otherwise.
+1
After subtracting the 80 basis points of additional expense?
by gvsucavie03
Mon Jun 01, 2020 6:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 36221
Views: 4650904

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

This house of cards known as the US stock market will eventually come crashing down. The Fed has been doing everything in its power to hold things together but it can’t do it forever. I need to be careful how I word this part of the post so it doesn’t get deleted. The pandemic has caused millions of job losses and small/medium businesses that have been devastated. Just as we were coming out of the pandemic with phased re-openings across the county, something else happened this weekend (I’m not allowed to mention it) that will further complicate things. Some businesses that were barely hanging on have now been permanently destroyed. I can’t imagine anyone traveling, shopping, dining out, or going anywhere anytime soon, assuming they were pl...
by gvsucavie03
Sat May 30, 2020 7:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Single Favorite Mutual Fund
Replies: 102
Views: 14714

Re: Single Favorite Mutual Fund

PSLDX will make me rich. It's 50% of my AA. 1.11% ER :shock: Technically only 0.59% ER, the rest of it is cost of leverage that comes with the strategy. In any case, since inception in 2007 the fund has returned 15% CAGR after expenses compared to 8% for the S&P over the same period, with similar drawdown risk (tested through three market crashes). https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/fund-performance?s=y&symbol=PSLDX&benchmark=VFINX And unless you have at least $1M invested, front load of 3.75%, back end 1% and a higher ER.... No thanks. None of the above applies. You can buy it for $10 commission at Ally. https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=305950 I didn't read the whole thread, still not sure I'd move that direct...
by gvsucavie03
Sat May 30, 2020 5:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Single Favorite Mutual Fund
Replies: 102
Views: 14714

Re: Single Favorite Mutual Fund

HEDGEFUNDIE wrote: Sat May 30, 2020 12:18 pm
gvsucavie03 wrote: Sat May 30, 2020 11:57 am
HEDGEFUNDIE wrote: Sat May 30, 2020 11:54 am PSLDX will make me rich.

It's 50% of my AA.
1.11% ER :shock:
Technically only 0.59% ER, the rest of it is cost of leverage that comes with the strategy.

In any case, since inception in 2007 the fund has returned 15% CAGR after expenses compared to 8% for the S&P over the same period, with similar drawdown risk (tested through three market crashes).

https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/fun ... mark=VFINX
And unless you have at least $1M invested, front load of 3.75%, back end 1% and a higher ER.... No thanks.
by gvsucavie03
Sat May 30, 2020 11:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Single Favorite Mutual Fund
Replies: 102
Views: 14714

Re: Single Favorite Mutual Fund

HEDGEFUNDIE wrote: Sat May 30, 2020 11:54 am PSLDX will make me rich.

It's 50% of my AA.
1.11% ER :shock:
by gvsucavie03
Wed May 13, 2020 10:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Considering a "Callan Diversification" style AA - your opinion
Replies: 35
Views: 2103

Re: Considering a "Callan Diversification" style AA - your opinion

abuss368 wrote: Wed May 13, 2020 9:56 am A lot of complexity there. I would avoid managing 11 plus funds and concentrate on a couple or few total market index funds.

Remember Jack Bogle's wise advise: "Simplicity is the master key to financial success."
Thank you for the feedback!
by gvsucavie03
Wed May 13, 2020 8:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Considering a "Callan Diversification" style AA - your opinion
Replies: 35
Views: 2103

Re: Considering a "Callan Diversification" style AA - your opinion

I currently have a Three Fund Portfolio - 58/19/23 (Total Stock/Total Int Stock/Interm. Bond). Looking to diversify and take on some additional risk in hopes of greater return. gvsicavoe03: It is a mistake to complicate your simple, low-cost, diversified, three-fund portfolio which holds over 15,000 stocks and bonds. If you are willing to take additional risk of loss, simply increase your stock allocation and reduce your bond allocation. What Experts Say About The Three-Fund Portfolio Read my "Simplicity" link below. Best wishes. Taylor Jack Bogle's Words of Wisdom: "The odds of outpacing an all-market index fund are, well, terrible." ^^this guy has two or three times the experience investing you have and spends his dow...
by gvsucavie03
Wed May 13, 2020 7:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Considering a "Callan Diversification" style AA - your opinion
Replies: 35
Views: 2103

Re: Considering a "Callan Diversification" style AA - your opinion

Diversification doesn’t come from more and more holdings, after a certain point you aren’t getting more benefit. It comes from holding assets with low or negative correlation and positive returns. It’s near impossible to find assets with equal expected return and low correlation though so often you may increase risk adjusted return but decrease overall return. Long treasuries for example have low equity correlation and while they’ve done exceedingly well in the past 4 decades, their expected return is dismal today. I personally just focus on the higher return side of things with strong exposure to size and value factors but long treasuries is all I would add to improve upon that. Investing is simple but not easy, don’t overcomplicate thing...
by gvsucavie03
Wed May 13, 2020 7:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Considering a "Callan Diversification" style AA - your opinion
Replies: 35
Views: 2103

Re: Considering a "Callan Diversification" style AA - your opinion

Looks fine to me if you have the time and perseverance to stick with it. What is your rebalancing plan? I appreciate the reply. I would rebalance with new money each month and also annual rebalancing. My entire retirement is in 1 account, so that makes it easier. It won't take long before new money won't be enough. If you are going to only rebalance once a year, there is no sense in having such a complicated AA, you might as well just have a 3-fund portfolio. All your small positions (VNQ, CMDY, VWO, VSS, BNDX, USHY, ICSH) will quickly have significant deviations, such that you might as well not have allocations to them. You should develop a percent-base rebalancing method, which will require frequent computation of your AA, as well as kee...
by gvsucavie03
Tue May 12, 2020 11:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Considering a "Callan Diversification" style AA - your opinion
Replies: 35
Views: 2103

Re: Considering a "Callan Diversification" style AA - your opinion

aristotelian wrote: Tue May 12, 2020 11:13 pm
gvsucavie03 wrote: Tue May 12, 2020 10:55 pm
Cash equivalents (90-day bills, money markets, other cash instruments) is a viable asset class. Again, diversification and rebalancing opportunities is my goal.

Is it really overweighting? What is the market share of these assets?
I only meant overweight relative to TBM. I have no idea what global market weight would be but don't think that should drive the decision. Most research I have seen says that cash is a net drag on your portfolio. If you are looking for non correlation and rebalancing, again ITT or LTT would seem better.
Got it
by gvsucavie03
Tue May 12, 2020 10:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Considering a "Callan Diversification" style AA - your opinion
Replies: 35
Views: 2103

Re: Considering a "Callan Diversification" style AA - your opinion

There's quite a bit of long-term treasuries in TBM, yes? I chose the ultra-short because of the absence of them in TBM. High yield as well. The other sectors could definitely be simplified a bit. Thanks for the feedback! Hmm... I looked up BND on Vanguard's website. It says 20-30 year is 15%. It also has very little bonds with under a year duration. My mistake, I was looking at Investor Shares which is defunct. TBM does not have any in ultra short but has plenty (27%) in 1-3 year range. What is your reasoning for wanting to overweight ultra short? For risk adjusted returns you would historically be better off overweighting Treasuries as opposed to junk, and long vs short. Cash equivalents (90-day bills, money markets, other cash instrument...
by gvsucavie03
Tue May 12, 2020 10:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Considering a "Callan Diversification" style AA - your opinion
Replies: 35
Views: 2103

Re: Considering a "Callan Diversification" style AA - your opinion

gvsucavie03 wrote: Tue May 12, 2020 10:03 pm
aristotelian wrote: Tue May 12, 2020 9:52 pm
gvsucavie03 wrote: Tue May 12, 2020 9:23 pm
There's quite a bit of long-term treasuries in TBM, yes? I chose the ultra-short because of the absence of them in TBM. High yield as well.

The other sectors could definitely be simplified a bit. Thanks for the feedback!
TBM does contain Treasuries but I believe you've got it backwards.
Coupon Range % Fund %
0% or Paid In Kind 0.01
0–2 18.92
2–4 62.29
4–6 14.59
6–8 2.59
8–10 0.33
>10 0.01
Thank you for the clarification.
Hmm... I looked up BND on Vanguard's website. It says 20-30 year is 15%. It also has very little bonds with under a year duration.
by gvsucavie03
Tue May 12, 2020 10:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Considering a "Callan Diversification" style AA - your opinion
Replies: 35
Views: 2103

Re: Considering a "Callan Diversification" style AA - your opinion

4) you'll constantly compare your performance with the "simpler" portfolios. when you're down, you'll be tempted to revert back. Cavie: This is the biggest behavioral challenge of tilts. Anytime you tilt away from a market allocation you guarantee under- or over- performance. If there is an extended period of under-performance, you will be under behavioral pressure to change. If you don’t have a well researched basis for your tilt, you will have no logical defense to oppose the emotional pressure. As I always say: “ You need to believe in your tilt enough to convince yourself to stay the course through a decade or more of underperformance ”. If you don’t have that kind of belief, stay with total market and call it good. Excellent...
by gvsucavie03
Tue May 12, 2020 10:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Considering a "Callan Diversification" style AA - your opinion
Replies: 35
Views: 2103

Re: Considering a "Callan Diversification" style AA - your opinion

aristotelian wrote: Tue May 12, 2020 9:52 pm
gvsucavie03 wrote: Tue May 12, 2020 9:23 pm
There's quite a bit of long-term treasuries in TBM, yes? I chose the ultra-short because of the absence of them in TBM. High yield as well.

The other sectors could definitely be simplified a bit. Thanks for the feedback!
TBM does contain Treasuries but I believe you've got it backwards.
Coupon Range % Fund %
0% or Paid In Kind 0.01
0–2 18.92
2–4 62.29
4–6 14.59
6–8 2.59
8–10 0.33
>10 0.01
Thank you for the clarification.
by gvsucavie03
Tue May 12, 2020 10:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Considering a "Callan Diversification" style AA - your opinion
Replies: 35
Views: 2103

Re: Considering a "Callan Diversification" style AA - your opinion

Thanks for the great feedback everyone. Indeed, my international allocation could be simplified to just VXUS. My FI allocation is to ammend the TBM which doesn't hold international bonds, HY, and not much in the way of ultra-short (6-12 month) bonds. There were several folks suggesting LT, but I question some recency bias as LT is way up this year, or maybe I'm missing something. I'd still consider SCV and REITs. The TSM is heavily controlled by a small number of companies and the mid cap range is predominantly growth stocks. Also, I agree with Rick Ferri that tilting towards REITs gives a more fair representation of our economy having a larger percentage in commercial real estate. All of that said, a stronger tilt towards stocks (age minus...
by gvsucavie03
Tue May 12, 2020 9:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Considering a "Callan Diversification" style AA - your opinion
Replies: 35
Views: 2103

Re: Considering a "Callan Diversification" style AA - your opinion

Bogleheads: I currently have a Three Fund Portfolio - 58/19/23 (Total Stock/Total Int Stock/Interm. Bond). Looking to diversify and take on some additional risk in hopes of greater return. Since this is pretty theoretical, I won't post my personal info. Through several sources, including the Callan Period Table, I've come up with an asset allocation (still 58/19/23) with many more splits including REITs, SCV, HY Bonds, int. bonds, ultra-short bonds (cash equivalents), commodities, and small cap ex-us. Here's a "draft" of my hopeful AA.... I preface by saying that I read all of White Coat Investor's "150 Portfolios Better than Yours" blog as well as articles written by Rick Ferri and others. Please let me know your thoug...
by gvsucavie03
Tue May 12, 2020 9:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Considering a "Callan Diversification" style AA - your opinion
Replies: 35
Views: 2103

Re: Considering a "Callan Diversification" style AA - your opinion

I currently have a Three Fund Portfolio - 58/19/23 (Total Stock/Total Int Stock/Interm. Bond). Looking to diversify and take on some additional risk in hopes of greater return. Since this is pretty theoretical, I won't post my personal info. Maybe get clear on your goals and then go back to the drawing board. Your allocation actually doesn't seem that far off from total market indices, you just have it all sliced and diced. For example, your foreign equity could just as well go in a single total international index. I would get rid of high yield bond. They are highly correlated with stocks but with lower returns. You would get better diversification benefit from long term treasuries, even if you drop your fixed allocation down to 20-21%. T...
by gvsucavie03
Tue May 12, 2020 9:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Considering a "Callan Diversification" style AA - your opinion
Replies: 35
Views: 2103

Re: Considering a "Callan Diversification" style AA - your opinion

i sliced and diced my portfolio a decade ago and i can say now it wasn't worth it. 1) your stock vs bond allocation makes the most difference by far, it's not even close. 2) next up is your US vs ex-US. international has returned ~4% CAGR for the past decade. no tilting can compensate for that. all the two-fund total US + total bond people are laughing right now. 3) my slice & dice domestically beat the US total market for the past decade, until it was all undone in a single month. since February, my small/mid tilts dropped a lot more than large caps, and have recovered less since. basically, all the planning was for naught. 4) you'll constantly compare your performance with the "simpler" portfolios. when you're down, you'll ...
by gvsucavie03
Tue May 12, 2020 9:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Considering a "Callan Diversification" style AA - your opinion
Replies: 35
Views: 2103

Re: Considering a "Callan Diversification" style AA - your opinion

rkhusky wrote: Tue May 12, 2020 4:53 pm Looks fine to me if you have the time and perseverance to stick with it. What is your rebalancing plan?
I appreciate the reply. I would rebalance with new money each month and also annual rebalancing. My entire retirement is in 1 account, so that makes it easier.
by gvsucavie03
Tue May 12, 2020 9:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Considering a "Callan Diversification" style AA - your opinion
Replies: 35
Views: 2103

Re: Considering a "Callan Diversification" style AA - your opinion

- I would junk commodities - no real expected return and too much speculation for my blood - I believe that the fund just changed objectives but might be wrong as don't follow much. - I would junk the junk bonds - seems to be a mix of equity and bond and neither at the same time. - The rest I don't have much of an issue with although a lot would disagree... just watch the complexity and once you get this into the various buckets or Roth, 401K, spouse & you there are a lot of buckets boundaries that cause duplication of funds to allow for rebalancing. - The percentage to each is to each their own... 20% non-US is a way under market weight but only you can answer. Thank you for the feedback. I added commodities and junk bonds for diversi...
by gvsucavie03
Tue May 12, 2020 9:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Considering a "Callan Diversification" style AA - your opinion
Replies: 35
Views: 2103

Re: Considering a "Callan Diversification" style AA - your opinion

I currently have a Three Fund Portfolio - 58/19/23 (Total Stock/Total Int Stock/Interm. Bond). Looking to diversify and take on some additional risk in hopes of greater return. gvsicavoe03: It is a mistake to complicate your simple, low-cost, diversified, three-fund portfolio which holds over 15,000 stocks and bonds. If you are willing to take additional risk of loss, simply increase your stock allocation and reduce your bond allocation. What Experts Say About The Three-Fund Portfolio Read my "Simplicity" link below. Best wishes. Taylor Jack Bogle's Words of Wisdom: "The odds of outpacing an all-market index fund are, well, terrible." I appreciate the feedback Taylor. In fact, this portfolio (admittedly complex), has mo...
by gvsucavie03
Tue May 12, 2020 9:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Considering a "Callan Diversification" style AA - your opinion
Replies: 35
Views: 2103

Re: Considering a "Callan Diversification" style AA - your opinion

MotoTrojan wrote: Tue May 12, 2020 3:59 pm If you want some extra diversification benefit (I personally think the small/value tilt is enough) I would suggest you get it from something with a positive expected return rather than commodities. One option would be to put some of your bond allocation in an extra long duration treasury fund such as EDV to provide some imperfect correlation boost; just be ready to watch a bond fund move WELL into the double-digit % some years, in both directions.
Thanks!
by gvsucavie03
Tue May 12, 2020 9:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Considering a "Callan Diversification" style AA - your opinion
Replies: 35
Views: 2103

Re: Considering a "Callan Diversification" style AA - your opinion

Way too overcomplicated, you could get similar exposure with 4-5 funds IMHO. VBR is a nice fund but if you want to get a proper small-cap value fund look to SLYV/VIOV or AVUV; VBR is more of a 50/50 small/mid. I would do something closer to (adjust as you see fit, but you get the idea): 35% VTI 15% SLYV 20% VXUS 5% VSS (there are small-value options out there but they don't include emerging market and charge higher ERs; AVDV and FNDC are my two favorites) 25% BND or whatever bond fund makes you happy; your current intermediate is great You aren't gaining anything with this level of complexity. This for example could be simplified to 80% VXUS and would be almost the same exposure (VXUS is about 80% VEA & 20% VWO). Developed Markets (VEA...
by gvsucavie03
Tue May 12, 2020 3:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Considering a "Callan Diversification" style AA - your opinion
Replies: 35
Views: 2103

Considering a "Callan Diversification" style AA - your opinion

Bogleheads: I currently have a Three Fund Portfolio - 58/19/23 (Total Stock/Total Int Stock/Interm. Bond). Looking to diversify and take on some additional risk in hopes of greater return. Since this is pretty theoretical, I won't post my personal info. Through several sources, including the Callan Period Table, I've come up with an asset allocation (still 58/19/23) with many more splits including REITs, SCV, HY Bonds, int. bonds, ultra-short bonds (cash equivalents), commodities, and small cap ex-us. Here's a "draft" of my hopeful AA.... I preface by saying that I read all of White Coat Investor's "150 Portfolios Better than Yours" blog as well as articles written by Rick Ferri and others. Please let me know your though...
by gvsucavie03
Tue May 05, 2020 1:36 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Financial Advisor [use Ric Edelman?]
Replies: 41
Views: 17302

Re: Financial Advisor [use Ric Edelman?]

I do not feel he is an honest person. I don't mean he does anything illegal, I mean that nothing he presents is straightforward information at all, all of it is twisted in self-serving ways. Others have referenced his assertion that Vanguard index funds are not what they seem and have huge hidden fees. That's unconscionable because anyone can just compare the funds with the index and see that it isn't true. What's even worse is that he might not have said that --he might have been clever enough to say only words that are technically true, phrased in such as way that most of his audience thinks they heard something different. His essay, "Eleven Reasons Why You Should Carry A Big, Long Mortgage" is a masterpiece of spin. The man se...
by gvsucavie03
Fri Apr 17, 2020 4:01 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What's Your Credit Card Rewards Strategy?
Replies: 7203
Views: 1413128

Re: What's Your Credit Card Rewards Strategy?

$10,000 credit card funding on SkyOne Credit Union with my Citi Double Cash.

$200 sign-up bonus on a BOA spend $1,000... Should finish next week or so.
by gvsucavie03
Mon Mar 09, 2020 7:51 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Ok, I'll ask it... temporarily getting out of the market with a small % of portfolio?
Replies: 52
Views: 3623

Re: Ok, I'll ask it... temporarily getting out of the market with a small % of portfolio?

edge wrote: Mon Mar 09, 2020 7:44 pm I am following my IPS.
And my IPS says to buy!!
by gvsucavie03
Mon Mar 09, 2020 4:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 36221
Views: 4650904

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Did something happen today that I'm umaware of? :wink:
by gvsucavie03
Mon Mar 02, 2020 5:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 36221
Views: 4650904

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

occambogle wrote: Mon Mar 02, 2020 5:55 am
gvsucavie03 wrote: Mon Mar 02, 2020 5:47 am 60-day limit order on VTI set at 133 per share. Let's see how far we drop... :twisted: :moneybag
Do people really put limit orders so far ahead? What is the purpose? Do you put a number of different bands? Surely long before it went there you'd have additional information that would color your decision one way or the other? PS - This is a genuine question, I'm a newbie investor.
Well, darn. Market took a 4% leap today....

I only did this because I had a couple spare bucks laying around that was a multiple of $133. No strategy whatsoever, purely entertainment.
by gvsucavie03
Mon Mar 02, 2020 5:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 36221
Views: 4650904

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

60-day limit order on VTI set at 133 per share. Let's see how far we drop... :twisted: :moneybag
by gvsucavie03
Sat Feb 29, 2020 11:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 36221
Views: 4650904

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Bluce wrote: Mon Feb 24, 2020 7:12 pm
gvsucavie03 wrote: Mon Feb 24, 2020 5:26 pm Bonds up 0.5% :twisted:
TLT, iShares 20+ year Treasury ETF, was up 1.49% today. :shock:
Another .65 yesterday...