Search found 3423 matches

by AlohaJoe
Fri Jul 20, 2018 12:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Should I Dump a Pile of Money on Young Son?
Replies: 88
Views: 4468

Re: Should I Dump a Pile of Money on Young Son?

I would do it. You know your kid better than a bunch of pessimists on Bogleheads. He's going to get it, and a lot more, eventually. Why not give him some when it will do some good? He's not a child anymore.
by AlohaJoe
Thu Jul 19, 2018 10:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Take Risk on Equity Side?
Replies: 70
Views: 4063

Re: Why Take Risk on Equity Side?

Using Portfolio Visualizer, you can see (for the one dataset of returns from 1970 mind you) that there's an issue of the assets not mixing quite as well in terms of risk-adjusted return. 50% TSM/50% Int. Treasuries: 9.90% CAGR | 0.66 Sharpe Ratio | 21% Max Drawdown 50% TSM/50% HY Corp Bonds: 10.15%...
by AlohaJoe
Thu Jul 19, 2018 8:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Take Risk on Equity Side?
Replies: 70
Views: 4063

Re: Why Take Risk on Equity Side?

Another example of this is Emerging Markets Equities versus Emerging Markets Bonds. Or reinsurance :twisted:

I think the saying "take your risk on the equity side" doesn't really mean much and feels like a hold over from simplistic CAPM analysis where there are only two things to invest in.
by AlohaJoe
Thu Jul 19, 2018 7:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to calculate daily return for a portfolio of more than one stock?
Replies: 5
Views: 331

Re: How to calculate daily return for a portfolio of more than one stock?

You should do what livesoft suggests. It is simple, easy, clear, and obvious. Also talking about "owning the same number of shares" is wrong; number shares are meaningless. The only thing that matter is how much money you have. However, if someone really wanted to do it THE HARD WAY then it is just ...
by AlohaJoe
Thu Jul 19, 2018 4:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market timing benefit? Or just pure luck?
Replies: 15
Views: 1963

Re: Market timing benefit? Or just pure luck?

The outperformance of strategy (5) is still observed in other time periods, though. Take the time period from 1970 to 2007 as an example, It doesn't really make sense to say "the outperformance is observed" when you're talking about a random process. It can't outperform 100% of the time because you...
by AlohaJoe
Tue Jul 17, 2018 10:57 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Water leaking from skylight window - Roofer cannot find cause!
Replies: 10
Views: 621

Re: Water leaking from skylight window - Roofer cannot find cause!

You've only had one roofer look at it and give you a quote. And you didn't like his answer.

Is there some reason you're not calling another roofer instead of posting on the internet?
by AlohaJoe
Tue Jul 17, 2018 10:12 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why is my bond fund going up with interest rates?
Replies: 16
Views: 1508

Re: Why is my bond fund going up with interest rates?

The Federal Reserve doesn't have any power to affect the interest rates on any of the bonds in your portfolio. The interest rates on your bonds did not go up. Here's some reading that might help: http://aswathdamodaran.blogspot.com/2015/09/the-fed-interest-rates-and-stock-prices.html or if you pref...
by AlohaJoe
Tue Jul 17, 2018 8:56 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why is my bond fund going up with interest rates?
Replies: 16
Views: 1508

Re: Why is my bond fund going up with interest rates?

InvestInLife wrote:
Tue Jul 17, 2018 8:49 am
So there's a delay as federal interest rates trickle down to create a new environment at the private lending level?
No, there's no trickle down. The Federal Reserve doesn't set the rates in any meaningful way for the bonds you own; the market does.
by AlohaJoe
Tue Jul 17, 2018 8:37 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why is my bond fund going up with interest rates?
Replies: 16
Views: 1508

Re: Why is my bond fund going up with interest rates?

I am invested in municipal bond fund fmotx. In the last few months the Fed has raised interest rates, yet the bond fund is on a slow increase in value. I am prepared for bond funds to drop for a while, and have delayed investing more capital for this reason. I know some of the bonds are corporate, ...
by AlohaJoe
Tue Jul 17, 2018 7:09 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Why own a bed?
Replies: 140
Views: 8983

Re: Why own a bed?

For heaven's sake, you spend at least one third of your life in bed and a good raised bed with solid support is among the best investments to improve your quality of life. Please treat your body well. The Japanese and other Asians sleep with a mattress on the floor, even those who are wealthy. Thei...
by AlohaJoe
Tue Jul 17, 2018 6:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is leveraging property good but leveraging stocks bad?
Replies: 174
Views: 11133

Re: Why is leveraging property good but leveraging stocks bad?

michaeljc70 wrote:
Tue Jul 17, 2018 5:55 am
What data are you using? What level do you consider a crash?
I was looking at: http://www.multpl.com/case-shiller-home ... -adjusted/
by AlohaJoe
Tue Jul 17, 2018 2:17 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Why own a bed?
Replies: 140
Views: 8983

Re: Why own a bed?

For heaven's sake, you spend at least one third of your life in bed and a good raised bed with solid support is among the best investments to improve your quality of life. Please treat your body well. The Japanese and other Asians sleep with a mattress on the floor, even those who are wealthy. Thei...
by AlohaJoe
Tue Jul 17, 2018 1:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is leveraging property good but leveraging stocks bad?
Replies: 174
Views: 11133

Re: Why is leveraging property good but leveraging stocks bad?

I would say the additional benefits of a mortgage is that as long as you can service the loan, no matter the price of your property, at least it provides you with shelter. So the worst case is that you underperform relative to the market but hopefully it doesn't leave you destitute. Obviously, the ...
by AlohaJoe
Mon Jul 16, 2018 10:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: GMO 7 year forecasts are worse than a toss of a coin
Replies: 25
Views: 2269

Re: GMO 7 year forecasts are worse than a toss of a coin

And yet we still have threads like "what return do you expect for the next 10 years" or "Bogle predicts x%" blah blah blah. I don't disagree yet....all GMO has really done is to take the very common "I'm worried about valuations" and "this the longest bull market EV-AR and there will be a correctio...
by AlohaJoe
Mon Jul 16, 2018 9:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is leveraging property good but leveraging stocks bad?
Replies: 174
Views: 11133

Re: Why is leveraging property good but leveraging stocks bad?

JBTX wrote:
Sun Jul 15, 2018 11:58 pm
Margin loans are typically higher than mortgage rates plus you have margin calls.
My margin loan rate is currently 3.1%. What's your mortgage rate? I thought mortgages were currently at 4.6% or so?
by AlohaJoe
Mon Jul 16, 2018 9:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is leveraging property good but leveraging stocks bad?
Replies: 174
Views: 11133

Re: Why is leveraging property good but leveraging stocks bad?

At least with regard to margin loans, 2x to 4x leverage is pretty much the regulatory maximum amount of leverage brokers are allowed to provide under Regulation T with initial margin requirements of 50% and maintenance margin requirements of 25%.[/quote[ I can borrow 5.1x margin from my broker (equ...
by AlohaJoe
Mon Jul 16, 2018 9:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is leveraging property good but leveraging stocks bad?
Replies: 174
Views: 11133

Re: Why is leveraging property good but leveraging stocks bad?

Until recently, home values had never fallen nationally. You mean other than in the national housing crashes of 1890, 1915, 1942, 1978, and 1987? Housing prices didn't reach their 1915 levels again until 1945. 30 years just to break even. Housing prices didn't reach their 1890 levels again until 20...
by AlohaJoe
Mon Jul 16, 2018 9:35 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: A different take on retirement income: time segmentation
Replies: 145
Views: 8275

Re: A different take on retirement income: time segmentation

Walkure wrote:
Mon Jul 16, 2018 9:14 am
I think the cross-sectional sample makes it a lot harder to draw any sort of "spending reduction" conclusion from the data.
Longitudinal samples show the same pattern and support the results from cross-sectional samples.
by AlohaJoe
Mon Jul 16, 2018 8:15 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Duration of Sequence of Return risk for long retirements
Replies: 40
Views: 2241

Re: Duration of Sequence of Return risk for long retirements

I'll have to look into Kitces's post more but when I looked at I got a pretty different answer... https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/800/1*gqzgl1DTuI1p_KBaPmRjUw.png The peak is around year 15 but years 7-17 is pretty high. You aren't really safe until past year 20, I'd say. So....I'd say it never ...
by AlohaJoe
Mon Jul 16, 2018 8:08 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Does transferring US ETFs to a foreign custodian create tax problems?
Replies: 1
Views: 104

Re: Does transferring US ETFs to a foreign custodian create tax problems?

Would doing so create tax complications if I remain a resident of the US? No. Would there be new reporting obligations (e.g. FBAR)? Yes. Would it somehow change the character/source of the dividend income, creating different tax obligations in the US (and possibly in the other country)? It depends ...
by AlohaJoe
Mon Jul 16, 2018 8:05 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: A different take on retirement income: time segmentation
Replies: 145
Views: 8275

Re: A different take on retirement income: time segmentation

How much of this is because they spent much of their modest nest eggs early on, unwisely perhaps, and now don't really have enough remaining to spend more? [...] I know we have examples of both cases above, but I suspect that, in the general public, retirees who run low on money are more common. Wh...
by AlohaJoe
Mon Jul 16, 2018 6:54 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Wire transfers from internet banks (CapOne 360)
Replies: 5
Views: 416

Re: Wire transfers from internet banks (CapOne 360)

sunny_socal wrote:
Mon Jul 16, 2018 6:14 am
I googled for the CapOne wire transfer details but couldn't find it. Nothing on their website either.
What did they say when you called their 24 hour customer support?
by AlohaJoe
Mon Jul 16, 2018 2:07 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: A different take on retirement income: time segmentation
Replies: 145
Views: 8275

Re: A different take on retirement income: time segmentation

Potentially combining these two approaches may offset some of the disadvantages of the common withdrawal methods. The basic gist of what I propose is this: split retirees' portfolio into two, one for essential spending (ES portfolio) and another for discretionary spending (DS portfolio). Then, appl...
by AlohaJoe
Sun Jul 15, 2018 10:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: U.S. expat starting to invest
Replies: 7
Views: 637

Re: U.S. expat starting to invest

Sure, the plan seems fine. As for whether you can retire? Who knows. You didn't tell us anything about your expenses. If you spend $1,000 a year, then probably yes. If you spend $60,000 a year, then probably no. It depends on whether you actually get that inheritance. Whether we see a massive stock ...
by AlohaJoe
Sun Jul 15, 2018 10:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any source for: "If markets fall X%, a X/X portfolio will fall X%?
Replies: 10
Views: 802

Re: Any source for: "If markets fall X%, a X/X portfolio will fall X%?

Multiplication.

If stocks fall 20% and stocks make up 75% of your portfolio then your portfolio will fall .2 * .75 = .15 = 15%
by AlohaJoe
Sun Jul 15, 2018 1:07 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Would you trade experiences in your youth for early retirement
Replies: 81
Views: 5160

Re: Would you trade experiences in your youth for early retirement

Interesting question. All is relative to where one sits in the journey, looking forward or looking back, and how far. Looking back as a senior with poor financial prospects in retirement, experiences would lose over better finances. Looking back as an early retired senior that has charted a solid f...
by AlohaJoe
Sun Jul 15, 2018 12:17 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Asset Allocation Adjusted with Annual Expense Multiple?
Replies: 2
Views: 322

Re: Asset Allocation Adjusted with Annual Expense Multiple?

This formula could help a lot with sequence of returns risk since you would be guaranteed to have a less aggressive portfolio as you get closer to your retirement/FI date. What does everyone think? It could help a lot? Or it does help a lot? Where can I read about the data, testing, charts, etc?
by AlohaJoe
Fri Jul 13, 2018 10:51 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Early retirement
Replies: 145
Views: 13186

Re: Early retirement

I retired early. I've had some very interesting interactions with people when they find out I've done so. Some are socially awkward, some rude, some confused and other bizarre reactions. Has anyone else experienced what I have? Nope. I mean, I expect that when you engage in a lifestyle that some sm...
by AlohaJoe
Fri Jul 13, 2018 10:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bucket Portfolio article by Christine Benz
Replies: 85
Views: 6306

Re: Bucket Portfolio article by Christine Benz

Are there actually bucket advocates who say the asset allocation should be fixed and the buckets refilled every year regardless of market conditions? I'll refer you to the excellent article by Kitces linked to in this post . Sure but in that post Kitces is creating a bit of a strawman, in that he's...
by AlohaJoe
Fri Jul 13, 2018 9:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bucket Portfolio article by Christine Benz
Replies: 85
Views: 6306

Re: Bucket Portfolio article by Christine Benz

Only when you use something like a free-floating AA bucket model can the bucket strategy yield different results than a more conventional fixed or glidepath AA. I mean....yes? All bucket strategies assume free floating asset allocation, don't they? They don't call it out and they don't ever bother ...
by AlohaJoe
Fri Jul 13, 2018 9:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What's your *real* asset allocation?
Replies: 30
Views: 3060

Re: What's your *real* asset allocation?

I only include liquid assets. Assets that can be converted to cash within one business day. I can't eat my house. I need it to keep the rain out. You can't convert any Vanguard mutual fund to cash within one business day. You can't convert any stock or ETF to cash within one business day. Sure I ca...
by AlohaJoe
Fri Jul 13, 2018 8:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Saving 20% of paycheck isn't enough
Replies: 111
Views: 12392

Re: Saving 20% of paycheck isn't enough

I feel that 10-20% savings is simply not enough and should be aimed more at 40% to achieve an early retirement goal. Is someone arguing with you about this? You've set up massive strawman that no one is world actually supports. "If you save 10% you can retire early." Who says that? No one. :oops: O...
by AlohaJoe
Thu Jul 12, 2018 8:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Yield Curve Inversions — Any Benefit from Market Timing?
Replies: 16
Views: 934

Re: Yield Curve Inversions — Any Benefit from Market Timing?

I've yet to see a market timing scheme that outperformed consistently over long periods. You had seen it. It is right in front of you. It is a fixed AA with buy, holds, and rebalancing. With a fixed AA and rebalancing, you always "buy low and sell high". It is the best market timing tool by not tim...
by AlohaJoe
Thu Jul 12, 2018 8:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Yield Curve Inversions — Any Benefit from Market Timing?
Replies: 16
Views: 934

Re: Yield Curve Inversions — Any Benefit to Market Timing?

...but if you really wanted to try again with monthly Treasury data you can look at https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1LBRAy1SCCAr8YkjJqGNrTpyNnDIOGmeowTXrn9vdXXs/edit#gid=2025919577 Under the "Monthly raw data" tab and use the "Barclays 1 5" column. That's the total return data from the Bloom...
by AlohaJoe
Thu Jul 12, 2018 8:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Yield Curve Inversions — Any Benefit from Market Timing?
Replies: 16
Views: 934

Re: Yield Curve Inversions — Any Benefit from Market Timing?

I've yet to see a market timing scheme that outperformed consistently over long periods. You had seen it. It is right in front of you. It is a fixed AA with buy, holds, and rebalancing. With a fixed AA and rebalancing, you always "buy low and sell high". It is the best market timing tool by not tim...
by AlohaJoe
Thu Jul 12, 2018 7:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What's your *real* asset allocation?
Replies: 30
Views: 3060

Re: What's your *real* asset allocation?

jebmke wrote:
Thu Jul 12, 2018 5:29 pm
I only include liquid assets. Assets that can be converted to cash within one business day. I can't eat my house. I need it to keep the rain out.
You can't convert any Vanguard mutual fund to cash within one business day. You can't convert any stock or ETF to cash within one business day.
by AlohaJoe
Thu Jul 12, 2018 7:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Yield Curve Inversions — Any Benefit from Market Timing?
Replies: 16
Views: 934

Re: Yield Curve Inversions — Any Benefit to Market Timing?

One factor you could look at is the duration of the bonds you switch to such as intermediate term treasuries. Possibly. Unfortunately, I don't have monthly total return data (price change plus yield) for, say, 5-year Treasuries. Also, I'm not entirely convinced it would make a great deal of differe...
by AlohaJoe
Thu Jul 12, 2018 7:51 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Anyone take naps at work?
Replies: 93
Views: 5361

Re: Anyone take naps at work?

JoeRetire wrote:
Thu Jul 12, 2018 6:07 am
AlohaJoe wrote:
Wed Jul 11, 2018 8:38 pm
The lights in the office were turned off from 12-1.
Where was this? What kind of office?
Open plan offices. 20-200 people. In Asia.
by AlohaJoe
Wed Jul 11, 2018 8:38 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Anyone take naps at work?
Replies: 93
Views: 5361

Re: Anyone take naps at work?

Everyone I worked with in my last two jobs took a nap at work. Many people kept pillows at work. The lights in the office were turned off from 12-1. Most people would just put their head down at their desk. Some would lay down under their desk. Not everyone would take a nap every day. If you were on...
by AlohaJoe
Wed Jul 11, 2018 8:40 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: When to start taxable?
Replies: 22
Views: 1994

Re: When to start taxable?

I've partially convinced myself that it would be like another tier to my emergency fund Your Roth IRA is your next tier of emergency fund. I see many folks here talking about their taxable accounts - have you all been maxing tax advantaged accounts first, or did you start a taxable account before t...
by AlohaJoe
Wed Jul 11, 2018 3:02 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Compensation
Replies: 21
Views: 3562

Re: Compensation

Apply to other jobs. If they make you an offer, that's what you're worth.
by AlohaJoe
Tue Jul 10, 2018 9:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: $860 Million ETF Trade
Replies: 16
Views: 2052

Re: $860 Million ETF Trade

Agree that this was not a market order as given normal volume of SCHX it would have moved it too much and more than likely not have been filled. I'm not sure about that. It is only 17x daily volume. A little while back an Emerging Markets bond ETF had 13x daily volume with no impact. I think our in...
by AlohaJoe
Tue Jul 10, 2018 9:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Bonds Always Safe? — A Second Look at U.S. Portfolio Disasters
Replies: 108
Views: 8578

Re: Are Bonds Always Safe? — A Second Look at U.S. Portfolio Disasters

What stands out to me is how severe the Oil and Inflation Shocks of the 1970s were for both UK and US stocks and bonds — and probably for all the other developed nations that relied so heavily on imported oil (including Canada, Australia, Japan [/i] and Western Europe). It's easy to forget these co...
by AlohaJoe
Tue Jul 10, 2018 9:14 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Hyperbitcoinization?
Replies: 14
Views: 1340

Re: Hyperbitcoinization?

If you think something is going to go from $6,000 to $100,000,000 in the next 12 years then you should put everything in it. You should take out a second mortgage on your home, get a margin loan from your broker, and pile up the credit card debt to buy it now. I mean, I personally think your link is...
by AlohaJoe
Tue Jul 10, 2018 8:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Bonds Always Safe? — A Second Look at U.S. Portfolio Disasters
Replies: 108
Views: 8578

Re: Are Bonds Always Safe? — A Second Look at U.S. Portfolio Disasters

My question: How long did it take for our reputation as creditworthy to return? Or did it never really take a hit? Actionability: How can we see the 'signal' that would indicate taking a haircut is a growing possibility? As far as I know there were no consequences. If anything, the resulting Suprem...
by AlohaJoe
Tue Jul 10, 2018 2:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Bonds Always Safe? — A Second Look at U.S. Portfolio Disasters
Replies: 108
Views: 8578

Re: Are Bonds Always Safe? — A Second Look at U.S. Portfolio Disasters

I don't know what data sources you have available, but rerunning this with T-Bills and/or cash would be helpful, I think (particularly since those have, AFAIK, weathered inflation better). Treasury bills didn't really exist before December 10, 1929, so there are limits on what using them can tell u...
by AlohaJoe
Mon Jul 09, 2018 11:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Bonds Always Safe? — A Second Look at U.S. Portfolio Disasters
Replies: 108
Views: 8578

Re: Are Bonds Always Safe? — A Second Look at U.S. Portfolio Disasters

Is there a way to tie interest or mortgage rates into this? I believe the last time mortgage rates were at these historical lows was the 1950s or so. Is that something to consider with all this? Uh, how? What do you have in mind? I'm not really seeing how mortgage rates affect one's portfolio. Or a...
by AlohaJoe
Mon Jul 09, 2018 7:24 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Amazon won't sell this book to me.
Replies: 68
Views: 8334

Re: Amazon won't sell this book to me.

I wonder if this is some sort of experiment with an obscure (sorry, OP) product to test how many people looking at the book could be motivated to sign up for Prime because of the desire to buy it. Is this the direction that Amazon is going? Perhaps they will end up like Costco, open only to paying ...
by AlohaJoe
Mon Jul 09, 2018 6:49 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Rent Cost vs Commute -- How would you calculate trade-off financially?
Replies: 11
Views: 842

Re: Rent Cost vs Commute -- How would you calculate trade-off financially?

I would absolutely spend $100 a month to live 10 minutes closer. That's a no brainer easy decision for me. 20 minutes a day, 5 days a week, 4 weeks a month = 6.6 hours saved per month for only $100? People spend $100 a month on a cleaner to save 4 hours. So I would pick the one 10 minutes away. Plus...
by AlohaJoe
Mon Jul 09, 2018 6:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Run your retirement like an insurance company: liability matching
Replies: 13
Views: 1743

Re: Run your retirement like an insurance company: liability matching

So you just match 35 years worth of liabilities and, if God takes you home sooner, you leave behind some (currently grieving but soon to be) happy heirs. :sharebeer 35 years isn't enough. I'm pretty sure insurance company CEOs don't go "hey, we only have a 5% chance of going out of business, that's...