Search found 3530 matches

by AlohaJoe
Sun Aug 19, 2018 9:42 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Tax loss harvesting??
Replies: 1
Views: 108

Re: Tax loss harvesting??

1. Vanhuard has an option to invest in to VA: total stock market index (https://personal.vanguard.com/us/funds/snapshot?FundId=0604&FundIntExt=INT&investor_disable_redirect=true) and Fidelity has an option as well (http://fundresearch.fidelity.com/annuities/summary/FXVLT) Does any one know if these...
by AlohaJoe
Sun Aug 19, 2018 9:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which is more diversified? TSM or TSM+value?
Replies: 2
Views: 89

Re: Which is more diversified? TSM or TSM+value?

What's your definition of "diversified"? What metric does it have? What does that metric say about your two options?

(Why is "most diversified" an investing goal for you?)
by AlohaJoe
Sun Aug 19, 2018 9:27 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: No tax on capital gain while changing country of residency?
Replies: 2
Views: 89

Re: No tax on capital gain while changing country of residency?

Do I have to pay any capital gain tax anywhere if I sell my investment while travelling from country A to country B? During the few days I will travel will I be considered with no residency? Tax laws are country specific. (I mean...obviously?) By writing "Country A" and "Country B" you have made it...
by AlohaJoe
Sun Aug 19, 2018 4:36 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 'Online Banking – School Me’ 2
Replies: 15
Views: 744

Re: 'Online Banking – School Me’ 2

Why do you think being about to touch it matters? Do you think the US government has one set of banking laws for banks with branches and one set of (riskier) banking laws for internet banks? Did "being able to touch it" help any with banking crises during the Great Depression or the Savings & Loan c...
by AlohaJoe
Sun Aug 19, 2018 1:08 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What kind of medical events that may ruin your retirement?
Replies: 27
Views: 1794

Re: What kind of medical events that may ruin your retirement?

Just FYI, for extended travel you may need visas and you may be required to have medical insurance to get a visa. You can buy "anywhere but the US" global medical insurance for $2,000 or so for a couple your age. Be sure to read all the fine print on those, some of them apparently exclude things li...
by AlohaJoe
Sat Aug 18, 2018 10:33 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What kind of medical events that may ruin your retirement?
Replies: 27
Views: 1794

Re: What kind of medical events that may ruin your retirement?

You can buy "anywhere but the US" global medical insurance for $2,000 or so for a couple your age.

If you're going to be in the US for two months a year you'll need to check whether that means you owe penalties for not having ACA compliant health care.
by AlohaJoe
Sat Aug 18, 2018 10:25 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Real estate dropping like a rock in U.K. - can the U.S. be far behind?
Replies: 32
Views: 3357

Re: Real estate dropping like a rock in U.K. - can the U.S. be far behind?

the party seems to be over in the U.K. Is this likely to be a global phenomenon? Bad time to be buying? From the article you linked A report by the Office for National Statistics and Land Registry yesterday showed: Overall UK house prices rose by only 3 per cent or £6,714 to £228,384 in the 12 mont...
by AlohaJoe
Sat Aug 18, 2018 12:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Remind me (again) how real estate isn't a GREAT investment?
Replies: 85
Views: 6501

Re: Remind me (again) how real estate isn't a GREAT investment?

Pretty frequently I'll hear people say they "bought" a rental property, and the tenant's rent covers the entire mortgage payment. It sounds like that's not uncommon at all. In fact, it sounds more common that rent covers the mortgage payment than the opposite. Many even say it covers the mortgage a...
by AlohaJoe
Thu Aug 16, 2018 11:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Elderly Relative Short on Money
Replies: 74
Views: 5550

Re: Elderly Relative Short on Money

Realistically...she can just withdraw 6%. 6% withdrawals still worked 2/3rds of the time (as long as you had more than 50% stocks). And that's assuming a 30-year retirement. The reality is that most people die before 30 years, which makes 6% even safer in practice. When you take mortality into accou...
by AlohaJoe
Thu Aug 16, 2018 9:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Enough. How do I invest in Australia.
Replies: 22
Views: 1474

Re: Enough. How do I invest in Australia.

Looking at those graphs it appears perhaps all of the Australian out performance is due to the 1930s. Australia didn't take much of a hit during great depression. The US lost much more than 50% After that I suspect the returns are pretty similar. Here's the decade-by-decade performance comparison f...
by AlohaJoe
Thu Aug 16, 2018 8:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why the Yale Endowment Hate? [Request for portfolio help]
Replies: 70
Views: 5303

Re: Why the Yale Endowment Hate?

I've been hearing index investors lambasting the Yale model recently. Where is this coming from? It's my understanding that the Yale model is a respected allocation for index investors. Is this allocation no longer any good? Bogleheads argue with the Yale model because David Swensen and Warren Buff...
by AlohaJoe
Thu Aug 16, 2018 2:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 538
Views: 31277

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

Australian stocks have dramatically outperformed US stocks over the period from 1900 to present. That's much longer term than a mere 30 years! Since including US stocks would have dragged down returns compared to an all-Australia portfolio, why are we still considering investing in the US when the ...
by AlohaJoe
Thu Aug 16, 2018 1:37 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: House in foreign country - US Tax benefits
Replies: 1
Views: 200

Re: House in foreign country - US Tax benefits

Sure, you can deduct mortgage interest on a foreign property so long as it meets all the requirements the IRS lays out in Publication 936.
by AlohaJoe
Wed Aug 15, 2018 10:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone try to tax loss harvest and fail?
Replies: 12
Views: 955

Re: Anyone try to tax loss harvest and fail?

Would it not be conceivable I put in an order to TLH a fund down 2% today only to have it rally tomorrow and instead lock in gain? Is TLH better with ETF versions? Sure, it is conceivable. In practice I haven't found it to be much of an issue. Sure, it is better with ETFs. It also isn't that hard t...
by AlohaJoe
Wed Aug 15, 2018 9:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bullish/bearish on GE? Make your case here - new lows today
Replies: 58
Views: 4212

Re: Bullish/bearish on GE? Make your case here - new lows today

tmcc wrote:
Wed Aug 15, 2018 12:15 pm
GE is doing decade lows today. I bought $2000 worth at 12.xx today .
[...]
I don't really know anything about the company other than that I buy their light bulbs and they made my oven.
And people are worried that indexing is going to take over the world and ruin capitalism.....
by AlohaJoe
Wed Aug 15, 2018 8:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Taking stock of current financial state and way forward
Replies: 6
Views: 777

Re: Taking stock of current financial state and way forward

You say your monthly income is $14,000 but you only list $7,400 in expenses. Where does the other $6,600 a month go? You're putting a lot into your company stock, which many here would not advise due to the concentration of risk. (When the company does poorly you'll lose your job and the value of th...
by AlohaJoe
Wed Aug 15, 2018 8:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: When do you change your IPS?
Replies: 8
Views: 793

Re: When do you change your IPS?

Like others have said, my IPS says when (and how often) I can change my IPS. For my IPS it says something like: Only allowed to change the IPS every 3 years If it has been less than 3 years since the last change, tough, wait. If it has been more than 3 years, then you have to wait 3 months since hav...
by AlohaJoe
Wed Aug 15, 2018 9:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Take your canes out in Emerging Markets
Replies: 23
Views: 2735

Re: Take your canes out in Emerging Markets

All Real Bogleheads ™ look to grap0013, praise be his username, for all of our emerging markets market timing predictions: viewtopic.php?f=10&t=182107
by AlohaJoe
Wed Aug 15, 2018 9:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Take your canes out in Emerging Markets
Replies: 23
Views: 2735

Re: Take your canes out in Emerging Markets

I shall ignore the 110-year-old anecdote about alleged successes of unidentified "old veterans of Wall street" unless you can convince me that those venerable gents in were investing in emerging markets index funds in 1908. Well, apparently Henry Clews was a British citizen who was investing in the...
by AlohaJoe
Wed Aug 15, 2018 3:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is short-term dollar-cost averaging (e.g. across 1 week) beneficial?
Replies: 21
Views: 1123

Re: Is short-term dollar-cost averaging (e.g. across 1 week) beneficial?

That seems like a safer investment than lump-sum investing the $50k on Monday into VTSAX itself, without any real detriment to returns... right? I don't see why it would be safer or why it wouldn't have any real detriment to returns? Do you have any evidence or backtesting for your beliefs? If anyt...
by AlohaJoe
Tue Aug 14, 2018 9:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Importance of sequence of real returns for SWR, CAPE valuation, and Luck
Replies: 95
Views: 3663

Re: Importance of sequence of real returns for SWR, CAPE valuation, and Luck

2) How well has CAPE predicted returns AFTER Shiller first proposed it in 1988? Correlations aren't always the best thing to look at. CAPE's correlation has actually gone up but so has its forecast error. And forecast error is probably what people really care about. Out-of-sample forecasts made sin...
by AlohaJoe
Tue Aug 14, 2018 6:43 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: No one seems to have an answer - NIIT on Short Term Cap Gains
Replies: 10
Views: 688

Re: No one seems to have an answer - NIIT on Short Term Cap Gains

The IRS puts all the forms & instructions online making it pretty easy to check there and find answers to tax questions:

https://www.irs.gov/forms-pubs/about-form-8960

It says to use Form 1040 line 13. It doesn't say to use Schedule D line 15.
by AlohaJoe
Tue Aug 14, 2018 1:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 538
Views: 31277

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

Weren't the 10,000 other threads on international investing not enough for you?
by AlohaJoe
Mon Aug 13, 2018 11:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Importance of sequence of real returns for SWR, CAPE valuation, and Luck
Replies: 95
Views: 3663

Re: Importance of sequence of real returns for SWR, CAPE valuation, and Luck

CAPE was below it's mean and median for about 6 weeks in 2009. Maybe 8 weeks. That's a bit of an exaggeration. Looking at Shiller's spreadsheet, CAPE10 was below 16.5 from October 2008 to July 2009 and it was below 15.5 from November 2008 to April 2009. So anywhere from 6-10 months depending on whe...
by AlohaJoe
Mon Aug 13, 2018 11:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Importance of sequence of real returns for SWR, CAPE valuation, and Luck
Replies: 95
Views: 3663

Re: Importance of sequence of real returns for SWR, CAPE valuation, and Luck

But I doubt that anyone here would say "CAPE is at 10! I can have 6% withdrawals for the next 30 years without ever checking up on my portfolio's performance!" Along these lines, go back to 2009 when CAPE was actually below its mean & median and see if you can find a single post/blog/article from a...
by AlohaJoe
Mon Aug 13, 2018 8:18 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: If USPS runs at a loss, how can Junk mail subsidize First Class?
Replies: 6
Views: 1039

Re: If USPS runs at a loss, how can Junk mail subsidize First Class?

Mass mailing doesn't subsidise first class (letter) mail. If that's what someone meant, they are mistaken. Mass mailing and first class (letter) mail subsidise parcel delivery. The basic idea is: if you have a monopoly then you have pricing power. So you can overcharge and subsidise the products whe...
by AlohaJoe
Mon Aug 13, 2018 7:21 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help needed understanding Global small cap risk
Replies: 6
Views: 322

Re: Help needed understanding Global small cap risk

My worry is that if U.S economy took a long prolonged nose dive would the index still remain heavily U.S as would it not just be repopulated with u.s companies that are in decline and now fall within the less than 2$Bill Market Cap. Presumably your fund is market cap weighted. If the US takes a pro...
by AlohaJoe
Mon Aug 13, 2018 7:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How can I use the Rising Equity Glide Path?
Replies: 61
Views: 3611

Re: How can I use the Rising Equity Glide Path?

From what I've read on the topic, the idea is to DECREASE equities a few years before retirement (my potential situation), to then increase again a few years after I retire. That is my understanding as well. However, I am uncertain about increasing equities after retirement. Does increasing the per...
by AlohaJoe
Sun Aug 12, 2018 11:26 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is your monthly expense really that stable or in reality, pretty volatile?
Replies: 46
Views: 3167

Re: Is your monthly expense really that stable or in reality, pretty volatile?

Questions : Does it ever happen to you during certain month where your expense just go way up and how do you generally think about managing your cash flow in this case? I presume retirees will have much stable expenses during later stage of life so my concern is mostly towards couples in their 30s ...
by AlohaJoe
Sun Aug 12, 2018 9:59 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: iORP Monte Carlo vs FireCalc
Replies: 10
Views: 1062

Re: iORP Monte Carlo vs FireCalc

Now, I expect Monte Carlo is not the 'best' way to run this sim, since it assumes completely random returns from year to year. iORP doesn't actually assume completely random returns from year to year. It attempts to incorporate some kind of mean reversion or trend or something. Most likely you'll n...
by AlohaJoe
Sun Aug 12, 2018 9:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Total International MF/ETF Performance Difference
Replies: 2
Views: 315

Re: Vanguard Total International MF/ETF Performance Difference

Although I'm still confused why the Friday losses are -1.76 and one is -1.90 shouldn't those be closer? In addition to the point the other poster makes about differences between NAV.... The ETF's price is from 4:30pm. The mutual fund's price is set at something like 7pm or 9pm or whenever Vanguard ...
by AlohaJoe
Sun Aug 12, 2018 8:05 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: reliable online public forum
Replies: 24
Views: 2048

Re: reliable online public forum

JoeRetire wrote:
Sun Aug 12, 2018 6:13 am
What does "reliable" mean to you in this context?
Reliable means "at least one poster says what I want to hear and validates my pre-existing beliefs" :twisted:
by AlohaJoe
Sun Aug 12, 2018 7:39 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: ow much money I can give my son as a tax freegift
Replies: 7
Views: 1042

Re: ow much money I can give my son as a tax freegift

And I'm concerned if the Austrian government tax my son as an income when I send him money to buy home. thank you for advice My first advice would be for your adult son to figure this out for you. My second advice, if he can't figure it out on his own, is to call the ATO at 13 28 61 and ask them. T...
by AlohaJoe
Sun Aug 12, 2018 4:44 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: House Value & Mortgage as a Percentage of Net Worth
Replies: 83
Views: 5733

Re: House Value & Mortgage as a Percentage of Net Worth

There is no universal, so the question doesn't really make sense. Housing is just consumption. If one person decides to spend 30% on housing and 0% on, I dunno, whatever you decide to spend money on, then why is that a worse choice than someone who spends 20% on housing and 10% on vacations or child...
by AlohaJoe
Sat Aug 11, 2018 6:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jamie Dimon: Higher rates are coming
Replies: 42
Views: 6567

Re: Jamie Dimon: Higher rates are coming

If you're really worried about inflation, consider TIPS and I Bonds. Aren't I-Bonds currently returning negative real returns when you factor in taxes? Yes but it is a known (& relatively slight) loss. With nominal bonds and stocks you could lose 10% a year, just to inflation. You'll never lose 10%...
by AlohaJoe
Fri Aug 10, 2018 8:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Illiquidiity scenarios for Mutual Funds/ETFs
Replies: 21
Views: 1153

Re: Illiquidiity scenarios for Mutual Funds/ETFs

dpm321 wrote:
Fri Aug 10, 2018 8:01 am
Can it happen? Just look at what happened to the VIX ETFs not too long back.
XIV is the only thing that closed AFAIK.
It wasn't an ETF.
by AlohaJoe
Fri Aug 10, 2018 8:10 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Should I tell my family/friend that they are making a financial mistake?
Replies: 87
Views: 7679

Re: Should I tell my family/friend that they are making a financial mistake?

Do you give your friends parenting advice if you think they are about to make a mistake with their children? Do you give your friends religious advice if you think they are about to make a mistake with their immortal soul? Do you give your friends political advice if you think they are about to vote...
by AlohaJoe
Thu Aug 09, 2018 8:33 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 1024.99 for a book. Why?
Replies: 21
Views: 3286

Re: 1024.99 for a book. Why?

I was under the impression that most people had decided it was due to money laundering: http://mebfaber.com/2018/04/18/how-to-launder-money-with-amazon-aka-why-all-my-books-are-now-free/ https://techcrunch.com/2018/02/26/crooks-launder-money-using-real-and-fake-amazon-ebooks/ https://www.theguardian...
by AlohaJoe
Thu Aug 09, 2018 8:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: NYT: The Big, Dangerous Bubble in Corporate Debt
Replies: 18
Views: 3511

Re: NYT: The Big, Dangerous Bubble in Corporate Debt

Thoughts? Can any fixed income bankers here confirm / deny this trend? As an alternative viewpoint try: Time To Not Freak Out About Debt Again . (He covers household debt, corporate debt, and federal debt; scroll down to the corporate debt section.) Corporate leverage today is not materially differ...
by AlohaJoe
Thu Aug 09, 2018 5:47 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: When is a small etf too small?
Replies: 6
Views: 550

Re: When is a small etf too small?

I've bought & sold shares of ETFs equal to 10% - 20% of the daily volume without any issues. I probably wouldn't want to be doing that on a monthly basis but it is hard to imagine scenarios where that would happen. Even very low volume ETFs -- say 10,000 shares a day $30-80 a share -- works out to a...
by AlohaJoe
Wed Aug 08, 2018 10:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If it were March, 2000, would you still allocate 50% to Stocks?
Replies: 94
Views: 4285

Re: If it were March, 2000, would you still allocate 50% to Stocks?

I have a spreadsheet where I (sometimes) keep track of previous prognostications from scared investors. In January 2016 riptide said "Why buy now, why not wait until the market really crashes??". Markets are up 61% since then. In April 2017 etf_gaucho asked "Moving to a Lazy portfolio : Should I wai...
by AlohaJoe
Wed Aug 08, 2018 7:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Would buy and hold work if Japan's lost decade happens?
Replies: 64
Views: 7511

Re: Would buy and hold work if Japan's lost decade happens?

For example, from June 1988 to June 2018 (30 years), the inflation adjusted annual (real) return (in yen, so no currency changes affecting it) was 0.045% per year. So basically no growth. If you had been taking out 4% a year for a 30 year retirement, you would be out of money. There was a link in a...
by AlohaJoe
Wed Aug 08, 2018 10:38 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Rebalancing When Average Are Under or Over Market Prices(?)
Replies: 8
Views: 663

Re: Rebalancing When Average Are Under or Over Market Prices(?)

I don't understand what average price has to do with anything or why anyone should care whether it is higher or lower than the market? I think what you are trying to say is "do you still rebalance, even when doing so would generate capital gains taxes"? You'll probably that most people will Rebalanc...
by AlohaJoe
Wed Aug 08, 2018 12:05 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: 3 weeks in Australia
Replies: 21
Views: 1169

Re: 3 weeks in Australia

Between driving on the left, avoiding roos (think deer) While roos == deer is a decent rule of thumb for Americans they are actually quite different. Roos are substantially lighter -- especially since what people are mostly dealing with are wallabies and not roos 8-) -- which means they are much le...
by AlohaJoe
Tue Aug 07, 2018 8:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Would buy and hold work if Japan's lost decade happens?
Replies: 64
Views: 7511

Re: Would buy and hold work if Japan's lost decade happens?

It would be interesting to do a 30-year spreadsheet starting in 1988 to today, with $1,000 a month (or whatever) placed into the Nikkei. I think you'll find you actually would have been okay. I don't think many people would call it "okay". If you invested $1,000 a month ($12,000 a year, using 2016 ...
by AlohaJoe
Tue Aug 07, 2018 10:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Would buy and hold work if Japan's lost decade happens?
Replies: 64
Views: 7511

Re: Would buy and hold work if Japan's lost decade happens?

It would be interesting to do a 30-year spreadsheet starting in 1988 to today, with $1,000 a month (or whatever) placed into the Nikkei. I think you'll find you actually would have been okay. I don't think many people would call it "okay". If you invested $1,000 a month ($12,000 a year, using 2016 ...
by AlohaJoe
Tue Aug 07, 2018 5:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Age in Bonds" fails almost everyone
Replies: 217
Views: 12808

Re: "Age in Bonds" fails almost everyone

"Own your age in bonds" is repeated so often as conventional wisdom that I'm not sure many investors stop and appreciate just how bad this piece of advice is. In a slight defense of "age in bonds", it is meant to include the value of your Social Security in the bonds part. Bogle -- which is how bas...
by AlohaJoe
Mon Aug 06, 2018 11:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bankruptcy rising for older Americans
Replies: 4
Views: 891

Re: Bankruptcy rising for older Americans

Appreciate any additional thoughts on actionable issues... Also see this response on how the NYT article is "not very good": https://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2018/08/just-stop-it-the-elderly-are-doing-fine/ Something happened very broadly during the mid-80s and mid-90s, and whatever it was af...