Search found 2805 matches

by AlohaJoe
Fri Feb 23, 2018 3:46 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Do bond ETFs like BND & TIPS diversify?
Replies: 2
Views: 225

Re: Do bond ETFs like BND & TIPS diversify?

I had a question regarding Bond ETFs like BND & TIPS. Recently, with the interest rate going up, my BND & TIPS have seen capital loss & so far, I'm down 2.60% for BND & 1.86% for TIPS overall. You haven't sold, right? So you have no actual loss. It is exactly the same situation as with individual b...
by AlohaJoe
Thu Feb 22, 2018 9:29 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How Secure Is Your Apartment
Replies: 25
Views: 2331

Re: How Secure Is Your Apartment

I once came out of the bathroom after a shower, wearing a towel, to find the supervisor in the living room. He said he'd knocked and there was no answer, very possibly true as I wouldn't have heard him over the water noise, but still. A lease says advance notice has to be given except in case of em...
by AlohaJoe
Thu Feb 22, 2018 1:56 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Morningstar's Holding Style: Good enough to base allocations??
Replies: 12
Views: 549

Re: Morningstar's Holding Style: Good enough to base allocations??

I have never read a book that said have 10% small, 20% mid and 70% large. The TSM is well out of the usually recommended allocation [...] For reference here are the books i read last month in trying to learn this stuff. Retire Inspired, Hogan The Index Fund Solution, Evans & Malkiel What Wall Stree...
by AlohaJoe
Wed Feb 21, 2018 11:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retirees: The common sense withdrawal method
Replies: 137
Views: 11898

Re: Retirees: The common sense withdrawal method

Instead of a set percentage for withdrawal, has anyone consider or currently using a withdrawal from tax-deferred accounts (401, 403, tIRA, etc.) up to the top of the 12% tax bracket (I think that's around $101k MFJ). The idea is to minimize taxes on the tax-deferred prior to RMD, and use any of th...
by AlohaJoe
Wed Feb 21, 2018 11:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Interactive Brokers Feature Question (Rebalancing, Accumulate)
Replies: 4
Views: 302

Re: Interactive Brokers Feature Question (Rebalancing, Accumulate)

I know this is bogleheads forum not interactive brokers forum but IB customer service is famously lacking and their guide is outdated I don't want to pretend that IB is cutting edge customer service & support or anything....but I find that they have a number of good videos that help explain their s...
by AlohaJoe
Tue Feb 20, 2018 4:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: J. Montier: US equity market is obscenely overvalued
Replies: 33
Views: 3205

Re: J. Montier: US equity market is obscenely overvalued

In 2011 James Montier predicted that over the next 7 years the S&P 500 would return just 0.2%.

I'm not sure why you think he'll be right this time when he's been wrong about literally everything he has written in the past 8 years.

What makes you think he is right now?
by AlohaJoe
Mon Feb 19, 2018 10:13 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Expat Living
Replies: 40
Views: 4262

Re: Expat Living

Has anyone here retired outside of the U.S.? If so, what have been the pros and cons of doing so? Learning about your experiences would be very interesting. There are 194 countries in the world outside the US. They are different from one another; in some cases wildly different. It is probably more ...
by AlohaJoe
Mon Feb 19, 2018 8:35 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Sell me on the benefits of an emergency fund
Replies: 119
Views: 6741

Re: Sell me on the benefits of an emergency fund

Everyone who states they don't have or don't need an emergency fund usually has a sizable amount of money in after-tax accounts. That's just the 1% that is the bogleheads. I'd actually argue that the opposite is closer to the truth. Someone who can fund 6-12 months of expenses, on top of saving for...
by AlohaJoe
Mon Feb 19, 2018 1:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "The Effects of Social Security Benefits and RMDs on Tax-Efficient Withdrawal Strategies"
Replies: 10
Views: 2028

"The Effects of Social Security Benefits and RMDs on Tax-Efficient Withdrawal Strategies"

Not too long ago, the conventional wisdom was that during retirement you should spend all of your taxable funds first, then all of your tax-deferred funds (e.g. 401k), then all of your tax-exempt funds (e.g. Roth), in that order. (For instance, this is the order that Vanguard recommends as their def...
by AlohaJoe
Sun Feb 18, 2018 10:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Recent market downturn and TLH
Replies: 8
Views: 358

Re: Recent market downturn and TLH

Hi, I see a good number of posts stating that recent market downturn was an opportunity for tax loss harvesting. When I looked at my portfolio almost all my assets were still up even at the bottom of this downturn. So how did everyone else do TLH? They bought something higher than the bottom. Right...
by AlohaJoe
Sun Feb 18, 2018 8:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dynamic Allocation based on the Intelligent Investor
Replies: 15
Views: 1212

Re: Dynamic Allocation based on the Intelligent Investor

And it circumscribes the risk of a dot.com or Japan 1989 style meltdown. This is the Shiller PE in Japan over the past ~30 years http://i0.wp.com/siblisresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/Japan-Shiller-PE.png?resize=785%2C289 Notice how it went above 40 in 1984 -- many years before the crash. A...
by AlohaJoe
Sun Feb 18, 2018 2:40 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Sell me on the benefits of an emergency fund
Replies: 119
Views: 6741

Re: Sell me on the benefits of an emergency fund

You're not missing anything. You don't need an emergency fund. Many people feel better if they have one. If you're not one of those people, then there's no need to have it, provided you have some vaguely plausible plan to handle whatever emergencies you consider reasonable. After all, even holding a...
by AlohaJoe
Sun Feb 18, 2018 12:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retirees: The common sense withdrawal method
Replies: 137
Views: 11898

Re: Retirees: The common sense withdrawal method

Unlike other retirement withdrawal writers (Pfau, Kitces, etc.), he's not promoting financial services or annuity sales, and as an early retiree, he's living retirement withdrawal strategies first-hand I don't think this is accurate. He's not retired and he does promote financial services (to the s...
by AlohaJoe
Sat Feb 17, 2018 10:32 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Monthly Stipends (Now) to Future Heirs?
Replies: 10
Views: 1494

Re: Monthly Stipends (Now) to Future Heirs?

I can think of two things to keep an eye on with an approach like this. 1. Others have talked about not wanting to see this go to lifestyle creep but....I honestly don't understand what the point of that level of wealth is other than lifestyle creep. With a $10+ million portfolio, even across five o...
by AlohaJoe
Sat Feb 17, 2018 9:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Help me understand the effect of bonds during bear markets
Replies: 5
Views: 681

Re: Help me understand the effect of bonds during bear markets

Is there a way to determine whether this gain was attributed from the bonds in the fund itself, or that investors were jumping ship from falling stocks and buying bonds, driving up the cost, and thus, the return? I'm not sure there's any widely agreed decomposition for this. You'd need to have a mo...
by AlohaJoe
Sat Feb 17, 2018 8:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retirees: The common sense withdrawal method
Replies: 137
Views: 11898

Re: Retirees: The common sense withdrawal method

My point in starting this thread was that before computers or sophisticated models, my suspicion is that some people financially navigated their way through retirement. Was wondering if some, like me, are doing that. My mom did. I'm not implying that I spend whatever I want, whenever. Before comput...
by AlohaJoe
Fri Feb 16, 2018 7:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retirees: The common sense withdrawal method
Replies: 137
Views: 11898

Re: Retirees: The common sense withdrawal method

I was wondering if there are people like me who just use common sense...they take out what they need, when they need it. Obviously, the overwhelming majority of people don't use formulas. Instead of looking at individual anecdotes, we can look at more rigorous surveys and research, such as this rec...
by AlohaJoe
Fri Feb 16, 2018 9:32 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Reality of the market being "down"...
Replies: 10
Views: 1012

Re: Reality of the market being "down"...

Google, Yahoo, Morningstar, and Bloomberg are some of the well known providers of information on the markets. You can check the numbers with them and see what they say.
by AlohaJoe
Thu Feb 15, 2018 11:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Morningstar's SWR study
Replies: 44
Views: 3450

Re: Morningstar's SWR study

Furthermore, the SWR reasoning is really a bad case of (very narrow) tunnel vision. You are correct that the differences in return between Asset Allocations tend to shrink when looking at the worst possible retirement cycles (those leading to the lowest SWR). But then the differences expand as you ...
by AlohaJoe
Thu Feb 15, 2018 10:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Pledged Asset Line (PAL)/Line of Credit for Real Estate Investments
Replies: 9
Views: 521

Re: Pledged Asset Line (PAL)/Line of Credit for Real Estate Investments

I am curious if the loan is interest only This is meaningless when talking about margin loans. There is no minimum payment. Interest accrues every month. If you don't make a payment then your margin amount increases. (Think of it like taking out an extra $500 in margin and using it to mail a check ...
by AlohaJoe
Thu Feb 15, 2018 10:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Morningstar's SWR study
Replies: 44
Views: 3450

Re: Morningstar's SWR study

So AA does have an impact on the SWR, but whether this is 'substantial' is a matter of opinion. Indeed. And I think it is not substantial :D . Taking Australia as one of the more extreme examples, the difference between 100% bonds and 100% equities is what, 0.5%? Fair enough, but start looking at m...
by AlohaJoe
Thu Feb 15, 2018 8:35 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Rant about relocation mortgage assistance, and a question
Replies: 54
Views: 3005

Re: Rant about relocation mortgage assistance, and a question

Why sell stock that is painful due to capital gains, especially if the goal is to sell house and pay off loan? This seems like an ideal situation for portfolio lending where your portfolio is the collateral for the loan. That’s not a bad idea. Our mutual funds are all at Vanguard, which I don’t thi...
by AlohaJoe
Thu Feb 15, 2018 8:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Pledged Asset Line (PAL)/Line of Credit for Real Estate Investments
Replies: 9
Views: 521

Re: Pledged Asset Line (PAL)/Line of Credit for Real Estate Investments

Curious what other options I should be exploring. Thanks in advance. I used margin at my Interactive Brokers account to buy my current house. There are a few gotchas with the process: - Opening up the IB account should be straightforward but you never know. (I personally ran into problems due to li...
by AlohaJoe
Thu Feb 15, 2018 11:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Morningstar's SWR study
Replies: 44
Views: 3450

Re: Morningstar's SWR study

So AA does have an impact on the SWR, but whether this is 'substantial' is a matter of opinion. Indeed. And I think it is not substantial :D . Taking Australia as one of the more extreme examples, the difference between 100% bonds and 100% equities is what, 0.5%? Using the stereotypical "$1 million...
by AlohaJoe
Thu Feb 15, 2018 11:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Morningstar's SWR study
Replies: 44
Views: 3450

Re: Morningstar's SWR study

Also most safe withdrawal rate maxes occurred in the first half of the 20th century. Was this related to the world wars? What would happen if you excluded those? Unfortunately none of us have access to the (very expensive) annual data that would let us look at that. And it is the kind of speculativ...
by AlohaJoe
Thu Feb 15, 2018 10:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Morningstar's SWR study
Replies: 44
Views: 3450

Re: Morningstar's SWR study

Would be interesting to see the results for Wade's international diversification study with higher equity allocations than 50%. It probably doesn't change anything. Asset allocation has very little impact on safe withdrawal rates in general. In another study (unfortunately, I don't recall which one...
by AlohaJoe
Wed Feb 14, 2018 10:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is VTI really "total stock market" with only 1478 holdings?
Replies: 12
Views: 1755

Re: Is VTI really "total stock market" with only 1478 holdings?

edit: stlutz was 30 seconds faster :shock: Is VTI really "total stock market" with only only 1478 holdings? Compared to the Russell 3000 or the Wilshire 5000? VTI has 3,638 holdings. https://i.imgur.com/0dmtpzp.png And is VXUS really "total international stock market" when it has half the holdings o...
by AlohaJoe
Tue Feb 13, 2018 11:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Morningstar's SWR study
Replies: 44
Views: 3450

Re: Morningstar's SWR study

Now it is popular on bogleheads.org to write that all of their work includes a 1% administrative fee! It just isn't true, and it is plainly stated in the linked articles (that no one actually reads): From the linked articles at the start of the thread... The first link: In Exhibit 2 we recreate the...
by AlohaJoe
Tue Feb 13, 2018 8:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What if you only live off dividends?
Replies: 109
Views: 9837

Re: What if you only live off dividends?

skime wrote:
Tue Feb 13, 2018 7:51 pm
Use SDY. It destroys SPY long term.
Image



They look nearly identical to me.
by AlohaJoe
Tue Feb 13, 2018 8:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Misguided Beliefs of Financial Advisors
Replies: 15
Views: 2833

The Misguided Beliefs of Financial Advisors

That's the title of a new paper on SSRN: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3101426 Their claim isn't that advisors give bad advice because of conflicts of interest or bad incentives. But because the advisors "have misguided beliefs". Advisors are willing to hold the investments the...
by AlohaJoe
Tue Feb 13, 2018 7:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Morningstar's SWR study
Replies: 44
Views: 3450

Re: Morningstar's SWR study

The interesting bit I found was the longer the retirement timeframe (ie 40 years) the higher the equity allocation did not provide a higher SWR rate at 99% probability of success. It isn't entirely clear from their phrasing, but I think the charts you are talking about are based on their prediction...
by AlohaJoe
Tue Feb 13, 2018 11:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What if you only live off dividends?
Replies: 109
Views: 9837

Re: What if you only live off dividends?

getrichslowly wrote:
Tue Feb 13, 2018 10:12 am
What if you drop this assumption altogether and just withdraw the dividends and bond interest payments?
If you can live off of just dividends then you are rich.

Congratulations on your financial success.

Telling people "just be rich" doesn't seem like useful advice.
by AlohaJoe
Tue Feb 13, 2018 11:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Valuation-dependent Safe Withdrawal Rate?
Replies: 29
Views: 1350

Re: Valuation-dependent Safe Withdrawal Rate?

So if at "normal" valuations one might say 5-6% would be okay. Lets assume a 50% decline in stocks and maybe 10% in bonds gets us to normal. If you have a 50/50 portfolio, you would lose 30% in that scenario. If after a 30% loss, 5% would be "safe", this means 3.5% should be safe now. If 6% would b...
by AlohaJoe
Tue Feb 13, 2018 3:25 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Did you learn anything from the market correction?
Replies: 160
Views: 11137

Re: Did you learn anything from the market correction?

Our first market correction (10% decline from peak) after an 8 year bull run There was a correction in 2010 (-16%), a correction in 2011 (-19%), another correction in 2011 (-9.8%), one in 2012 (-9.9%), one in 2015 (-12%), and another one in 2015-2016 (-13%). (All based on the S&P 500.) So 6 correct...
by AlohaJoe
Mon Feb 12, 2018 10:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: realized startup equity / schwab private client
Replies: 15
Views: 789

Re: realized startup equity / schwab private client

I have more money than you and I don't doubt Boglehead simplicity. As your assets grew, how did your number of securities change? It didn't change from $800,000 to >$3 million. All of the questions you (and Schwab) ask have been repeatedly answered (probably thousands of times) on this forums and i...
by AlohaJoe
Mon Feb 12, 2018 9:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Deferred Income Annuity
Replies: 10
Views: 985

Re: Deferred Income Annuity

I guess I'll be one of the few to say that I don't think deferred annuities are an obviously bad decision. However, immediate annuities in general aren't popular and deferred annuities haven't really been commercially available for very long, so you're unlikely to find many people who a) have them a...
by AlohaJoe
Mon Feb 12, 2018 8:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why not just do CDs and skip bonds?
Replies: 37
Views: 6988

Re: Why not just do CDs and skip bonds?

Perhaps I’m missing something, but with CD’s being insured up to $250K and having rates comparable or in excess of most or many more highly rated bonds, why not just predominantly rely on CD’s for fixed income and largely skip bonds? (I do recognize the holding requirement for CD’s and some tax ben...
by AlohaJoe
Mon Feb 12, 2018 8:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: realized startup equity / schwab private client
Replies: 15
Views: 789

Re: realized startup equity / schwab private client

I'm starting to doubt the bogle simplicity at this asset level. I have more money than you and I don't doubt Boglehead simplicity. All of the questions you (and Schwab) ask have been repeatedly answered (probably thousands of times) on this forums and in articles by people like Jason Zweig, JL Coll...
by AlohaJoe
Mon Feb 12, 2018 8:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Valuation-dependent Safe Withdrawal Rate?
Replies: 29
Views: 1350

Re: Valuation-dependent Safe Withdrawal Rate?

The 4% rule was established over high equation valuations but not high bond valuations. We currently have both, which is a historical abnormality. Also, even the 4% rule has a 5% chance of a failure baked in, so it was never perfect. So if you are retiring on the top of end valuations, you can prob...
by AlohaJoe
Mon Feb 12, 2018 12:59 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Do you think it is worth the money to travel to warm weather destinations during the winter?
Replies: 77
Views: 6409

Re: Do you think it is worth the money to travel to warm weather destinations during the winter?

I think it is worth the money to live somewhere with warm weather. After years of living in Pittsburgh, Boston, and Colorado .... I took a 30% salary cut to live in Sydney, Australia, and now Saigon, Vietnam. So count me in as another vote for yes. Though $1,500 for four or five days seems pretty st...
by AlohaJoe
Sun Feb 11, 2018 11:45 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: moving my mother's "escape" fund to me
Replies: 28
Views: 3251

Re: moving my mother's "escape" fund to me

I know she could give my wife, my daughter, and I up to $14,000 each per year, tax free. Should she liquidate the funds in the other firm first, and then give $14,000 to each us of each year until the money runs out? This isn't true. Your aunt can give you $10 million tax free. Unless your aunt's e...
by AlohaJoe
Sun Feb 11, 2018 9:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Are REITs essentially taboo for years now with rising rates?
Replies: 55
Views: 5248

Re: Are REITs essentially taboo for years now with rising rates?

BaylorBears wrote:
Sun Feb 11, 2018 2:26 pm
How long until REITs may again become good DCA options?
My REITs are up 30% over the past year, despite the Fed hikes.

If you limit yourself to the U.S. market you really only have yourself to blame.
by AlohaJoe
Sun Feb 11, 2018 2:48 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Arguments against rising equity glide path?
Replies: 40
Views: 2428

Re: Arguments against rising equity glide path?

Assuming that this means higher return or ending value, I think there are lots of good arguments that rising equity may not be optimal. No, that's not what it means in this context. But you are right that defining success is important. So now I’m curious, what criteria for success did McClure mean ...
by AlohaJoe
Sun Feb 11, 2018 2:38 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Arguments against rising equity glide path?
Replies: 40
Views: 2428

Re: Arguments against rising equity glide path?

I think the big problem with using Monte Carlo simulations, which all of the others you mention use, is that they are simplistic and don't capture any of the complex interactions of the real world. None of them use Monte Carlo, actually. I'm not sure what made you think that they all use Monte Carl...
by AlohaJoe
Sun Feb 11, 2018 1:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: leveraged Investing , Account Margining.. And the SEC
Replies: 9
Views: 719

Re: leveraged Investing , Account Margining.. And the SEC

Is leveraged investing or account margining one of the reasons for corrections and recessions? Investing my money in the market is risky enough for me, let alone borrowing money to invest.. Wow. Have you ever had a mortgage? Have you ever contributed even $1 to your 401k while you had a mortgage? C...
by AlohaJoe
Sun Feb 11, 2018 1:40 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Can’t decide if we’re getting close to FIRE without knowing health care costs
Replies: 30
Views: 2268

Re: Can’t decide if we’re getting close to FIRE without knowing health care costs

But I cannot accurately estimate my family’s health care costs in early retirement — if I retired today, it would be over 15 years before either of us qualified for Medicare. To complicate matters further... Why do you think Medicare will be around in its current form in 15 years? It is worse shape...
by AlohaJoe
Sun Feb 11, 2018 1:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: 4 Horsemen Of Your Portfolio
Replies: 108
Views: 10362

Re: Larry Swedroe: 4 Horsemen Of Your Portfolio

Everything I wrote holds for 2.5 as well.

I've been to Hong Kong many times; I live in Southeast Asia.

It is possible to say "something is good/not good" without falling back on the American habit of making everything the best/worst in the world.
by AlohaJoe
Sun Feb 11, 2018 12:44 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Arguments against rising equity glide path?
Replies: 40
Views: 2428

Re: Arguments against rising equity glide path?

BigJohn wrote:
Sun Feb 11, 2018 12:35 am
Assuming that this means higher return or ending value, I think there are lots of good arguments that rising equity may not be optimal.
No, that's not what it means in this context. But you are right that defining success is important.
by AlohaJoe
Sun Feb 11, 2018 12:13 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Arguments against rising equity glide path?
Replies: 40
Views: 2428

Re: Arguments against rising equity glide path?

Anyone has or came across fact-based opposing arguments? Sure, there are a ton of fact-based opposing arguments. Let's start with other people who have tested rising equity glide paths and found them wanting: Living Off Your Money by Michael McClung "A Rising Glidepath strategy showed a moderate im...