Search found 2541 matches

by AlohaJoe
Tue Nov 21, 2017 8:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Are you your own worse enemy when it comes to investing?
Replies: 22
Views: 1127

Re: Are you your own worse enemy when it comes to investing?

Are most of the problems we face as investors real or fabrications we create to justify the way we want to invest. I have no objective evidence, but I'd be willing to bet that 99% of investors suffer from this crippling problem. I submit all the "crash is coming", "flee to cash", "bonds are dangero...
by AlohaJoe
Tue Nov 21, 2017 9:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How long does it take a losing company to shutdown?
Replies: 16
Views: 802

Re: How long does it take a loosing company to shutdown?

BogleMelon wrote:
Tue Nov 21, 2017 8:43 am
AlohaJoe wrote:
Tue Nov 21, 2017 8:36 am

If you don't trust your leaders then find a new job. If you do trust your leaders why are you posting on an anonymous forum with no accountability?
What if I don't know/never met the leaders? :mrgreen:
Then look for another job. Why are you still there if you are worried?
by AlohaJoe
Tue Nov 21, 2017 8:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How long does it take a losing company to shutdown?
Replies: 16
Views: 802

Re: How long does it take a loosing company to shutdown?

There is no average. They could last 10 years, they could last 10 days. If you have to ask random strangers on the internet then you don't have enough information to guess. If you don't trust your leaders then find a new job. If you do trust your leaders why are you posting on an anonymous forum wit...
by AlohaJoe
Tue Nov 21, 2017 12:46 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Slice and Dice
Replies: 18
Views: 971

Re: Slice and Dice

I ask because at some point its just not worth managing 7 funds for an extra .5 in return for the year.Your thoughts please. That extra .5 per year might be $15,000. What would you do for $15,000 a year for the rest of your life? People spend time clipping coupons or driving an extra 5 minutes to s...
by AlohaJoe
Tue Nov 21, 2017 12:38 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Do I need a cash reserve
Replies: 7
Views: 809

Re: Do I need a cash reserve

brak wrote:
Mon Nov 20, 2017 9:11 pm
I keep hearing conflicting things about whether I need a cash reserve past a six month emergency fund.
Why do you think you won't hear conflicting things here?

People have different opinions.
by AlohaJoe
Mon Nov 20, 2017 8:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What percentage of your annual expenditures are you targeting for travel once you are retired?
Replies: 19
Views: 1168

Re: What percentage of your annual expenditures are you targeting for travel once you are retired?

TheTimeLord wrote:
Mon Nov 20, 2017 2:48 pm
What percentage of your annual expenditures are you targeting for travel once you are retired? In our case it is looking like somewhere in the 25%-35% range if we followthrough on plans.
Somewhere between 50% and 95%, depending on how much travel I feel like at any given point in time.
by AlohaJoe
Mon Nov 20, 2017 8:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Investing at the top
Replies: 19
Views: 1253

Re: Investing at the top

It must be frustrating that everyone is giving canned “nobody knows nothing”, “it’s time in the market not timing the market” answers instead of directly addressing your question. I am not able at the moment to do the proper research, but I’ll try if I can to just re-direct the thread. There have b...
by AlohaJoe
Mon Nov 20, 2017 7:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Survivorship bias and stock for the long term
Replies: 4
Views: 546

Re: Survivorship bias and stock for the long term

Your points are valid but also apply to bonds and the rate of inflation so where does that leave you?

The US had some of the best bonds of the 20th century and some of the lowest inflation (IIRC only Switzerland's inflation was lower).
by AlohaJoe
Sun Nov 19, 2017 11:47 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How much do you budget for vacation?
Replies: 88
Views: 4481

Re: How much do you budget for vacation?

Speaking of vacations, does anyone else struggle with feeling some remorse due to the carbon footprint created from traveling? "For over seven years, Qantas and Virgin Australia have offered passengers the chance to add carbon credits to the cost of their tickets" It is handled under Australia's Fl...
by AlohaJoe
Sun Nov 19, 2017 10:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Morningstar - AQR: The Vanguard of Alternative Investing?
Replies: 52
Views: 3360

Re: Morningstar - AQR: The Vanguard of Alternative Investing?

I suppose one could argue that WisdomTree's managed futures is "wrong" and AQR's is "right"? I don't actually know enough about managed futures to say one way or another. The WisdomTree fund is basically never discussed on Bogleheads so I'm not sure. I would argue that WisdomTree's managed futures ...
by AlohaJoe
Sun Nov 19, 2017 10:57 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How much do you budget for vacation?
Replies: 88
Views: 4481

Re: How much do you budget for vacation?

There's not a strict budget but in the neighborhood of $40,000-$50,000 a year.
by AlohaJoe
Sun Nov 19, 2017 10:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Morningstar - AQR: The Vanguard of Alternative Investing?
Replies: 52
Views: 3360

Re: Morningstar - AQR: The Vanguard of Alternative Investing?

When AQR funds are widely available to retail investors at reasonable minimums, wake me up. Until then, they might as well be DFA or Stone Ridge. They don't exist in my non-advisor retail investor world. While I empathise with the underlying sentiment...Since AQR is a sorta-passive-kinda place, the...
by AlohaJoe
Sun Nov 19, 2017 7:35 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Southeast Asia trip - Cash handling
Replies: 19
Views: 1238

Re: Southeast Asia trip - Cash handling

Vietnam limited daily withdrawals to about $70 or so (guessing here), which was a bit frustrating but not the end of the world. Despite what some people say upthread, credit cards are widely accepted - maybe not at roadside stalls and markets, but everywhere else. (I live in Vietnam.) Vietnam does ...
by AlohaJoe
Sat Nov 18, 2017 10:54 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What we don't know
Replies: 42
Views: 2715

Re: What we don't know

If we don't have certainty anywhere else in life, why should it exist in investing theory....a subject that has been around for maybe 40-50 years max?
by AlohaJoe
Sat Nov 18, 2017 10:42 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What we don't know
Replies: 42
Views: 2715

Re: What we don't know

Yes, we play the averages. Just like, on average, your spouse won't cheat on you but how do you definitively know? And your children won't turn out to be murdering cannibals. And your car won't explore in a fireball of death tomorrow because Central American narco-terrorists mistook you for an inves...
by AlohaJoe
Fri Nov 17, 2017 8:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Current precarious equity environment for a retiree
Replies: 43
Views: 3024

Re: Current precarious equity environment for a retiree

If you've won the game, why keep playing? You haven't won the game. The game isn't over until you're dead. Until then you are still playing. Put everything in (nominal) bonds? Now you're exposed to inflation risk which, historically, has been far worse than equity risk. Put everything in TIPS to av...
by AlohaJoe
Fri Nov 17, 2017 8:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Does Vanguard hunt down overseas investors?
Replies: 8
Views: 1439

Re: Does Vanguard hunt down overseas investors?

Does Vanguard actually do this? Yes. If so, do they just search for info randomly on various customers, or only if they have a hunch something they find questionable is going on? I was under the impression that they are a huge organization without the time for this kind of thing, but I could be wro...
by AlohaJoe
Fri Nov 17, 2017 12:43 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: RE sale: long close vs. bird-in-hand
Replies: 28
Views: 1898

Re: RE sale: long close vs. bird-in-hand

3% is the wrong discount rate to be using to compare the NPV of the two options. Using 3% means you think the deal with Buyer A is safer than a basket of AAA bonds from the largest companies in the planet. I don't think that is correct. The discount rate should be much higher, which makes the two de...
by AlohaJoe
Thu Nov 16, 2017 10:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fixed percentage withdrawal of maximum portfolio value?
Replies: 14
Views: 1145

Re: Fixed percentage withdrawal of maximum portfolio value?

This is a very nice way of comparing various withdrawal methods. Nice work, and thanks for posting. Have you by any chance done a similar analysis of the Variable Cape-based (WR = 1/CAPE * a + b) as discussed at ERN I'm not a big fan of this. I think his post was a good exploration but pretty far f...
by AlohaJoe
Thu Nov 16, 2017 10:24 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Pile of Cash - What to do
Replies: 25
Views: 2819

Re: Pile of Cash - What to do

lt1948 wrote:
Thu Nov 16, 2017 10:08 am
I have 450k sitting at Amex Online Bank at 1.25%, looking to deploy, but the market seems too high?!

1. Already fully vested with IRA, Roth IRA and Brokerage 1.3 Mill
2. Looking for ideas and strategies
Why didn't you invest it in January?
by AlohaJoe
Thu Nov 16, 2017 9:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fixed percentage withdrawal of maximum portfolio value?
Replies: 14
Views: 1145

Re: Fixed percentage withdrawal of maximum portfolio value?

cjking wrote:
Thu Nov 16, 2017 9:11 am
Sorry, I meant what percentage of the highest-ever balance?
5%. I chose 5% since that's the most commonly used percentage for "take a percentage of the current portfolio value" strategies.
by AlohaJoe
Thu Nov 16, 2017 8:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fixed percentage withdrawal of maximum portfolio value?
Replies: 14
Views: 1145

Re: Fixed percentage withdrawal of maximum portfolio value?

cjking wrote:
Thu Nov 16, 2017 8:53 am
AlohaJoe wrote:
Thu Nov 16, 2017 5:44 am
In 1929 it would resulted in you running out of money after just 26 years.
I've skimmed his post a couple of times but not seen anywhere that he's specified the percentage, so not sure what you based this on?
60/40 portfolio.
by AlohaJoe
Thu Nov 16, 2017 7:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fixed percentage withdrawal of maximum portfolio value?
Replies: 14
Views: 1145

Re: Fixed percentage withdrawal of maximum portfolio value?

columbia wrote:
Thu Nov 16, 2017 7:32 am
In the bar graph, EM = ...what?
It is from Michael McClung's book Living Off Your Money. The full name is "Extended Mortality Updating Using Failure Percentage".
by AlohaJoe
Thu Nov 16, 2017 5:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fixed percentage withdrawal of maximum portfolio value?
Replies: 14
Views: 1145

Re: Fixed percentage withdrawal of maximum portfolio value?

I'm not seeing any substantial advantages of this over other methods. https://i.imgur.com/posXG5S.png It appears to have the worst Withdrawal Efficiency Ratio of any withdrawal strategy in my backtest. https://i.imgur.com/YnpPWWG.png In 1929 it would resulted in you running out of money after just 2...
by AlohaJoe
Thu Nov 16, 2017 5:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should we be using high equity retirement portfolios? - Some cFIREsim scenarios.
Replies: 50
Views: 4261

Re: High equity portfolios in retirement - cFIREsim scenarios.

Have you read Frank Armstrong's 'The Informed Investor' chapt 18 ? I have not. What is the gist? Side-stepping 'Sequence of Return Risk' entirely through use of two buckets. The biggest risk of retirees. Stocks in Bucket 1. Five or seven years of necessary income in Bucket 2 (ST Bonds and Cash). Dr...
by AlohaJoe
Thu Nov 16, 2017 3:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should we be using high equity retirement portfolios? - Some cFIREsim scenarios.
Replies: 50
Views: 4261

Re: Should we be using high equity retirement portfolios? - Some cFIREsim scenarios.

Nope, you're not missing anything. The volatility of stocks overwhelms bonds so it doesn't really matter how many bonds you have (at least until you get to things like 20% bonds but then you are very exposed to inflation and longevity risks). Javier Estrada performed a similar exercise in his paper ...
by AlohaJoe
Wed Nov 15, 2017 11:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do you subscribe to taking risk only on the equity side
Replies: 40
Views: 2296

Re: Do you subscribe to taking risk only on the equity side

No. As others have pointed out no one actually believes this. If someone is taking any credit or term risk in their bonds (for instance by holding TBM) then they obviously believe some kinds of risk are worth taking on the bond side. At that point it just becomes an argument about which risks are w...
by AlohaJoe
Wed Nov 15, 2017 10:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do you subscribe to taking risk only on the equity side
Replies: 40
Views: 2296

Re: Do you subscribe to taking risk only on the equity side

No. As others have pointed out no one actually believes this. If someone is taking any credit or term risk in their bonds (for instance by holding TBM) then they obviously believe some kinds of risk are worth taking on the bond side. At that point it just becomes an argument about which risks are wo...
by AlohaJoe
Tue Nov 14, 2017 9:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Mother in retirement: Withdraw annually or monthly?
Replies: 19
Views: 1952

Re: Mother in retirement: Withdraw annually or monthly?

One downside of annual withdrawals is that, for most people, it is more at risk of behavioural errors. For most people 1 year's income is a substantial amount of money. To go into their brokerage and say sell for that much is stressful. It probably increases the chances of things like, "Well I heard...
by AlohaJoe
Tue Nov 14, 2017 10:07 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: problem new Vanguard Global Wellington fund
Replies: 29
Views: 1893

Re: problem new Vanguard Global Wellington fund

Also, this isn't true. The prospectus has a section titled "Portfolio Holdings" that answers your question. No, the prospectus does not have the info I am asking about, just descriptive strategy and objectives. The prospectus states, "This is the Fund’s initial prospectus, so it does not contain pe...
by AlohaJoe
Tue Nov 14, 2017 8:50 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: problem new Vanguard Global Wellington fund
Replies: 29
Views: 1893

Re: problem new Vanguard Global Wellington fund

The prospectus is just strategy and objectives. Also, this isn't true. The prospectus has a section titled "Portfolio Holdings" that answers your question. More generally, funds, especially active one's like Wellington absolutely do not want to disclose their trades on a daily basis. That would pro...
by AlohaJoe
Tue Nov 14, 2017 7:37 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Do you meditate?
Replies: 107
Views: 6450

Re: Do you meditate?

I've tried meditation once or twice out of curiosity. What kept me from going further is that some of the common "tools" of meditation -- saying "OM", focusing on one's breathing and looking at a mandala -- are not things that provide a positive feeling in me. In particular, I have a specific disli...
by AlohaJoe
Tue Nov 14, 2017 7:08 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: problem new Vanguard Global Wellington fund
Replies: 29
Views: 1893

Re: problem new Vanguard Global Wellington fund

my name wrote:
Tue Nov 14, 2017 6:48 am
The prospectus is just strategy and objectives.
I asked what additional information you are looking for. Why didn't you answer the question?
by AlohaJoe
Tue Nov 14, 2017 6:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Book: Living off Your Money, by M. McClung (Prime Harvesting)]
Replies: 395
Views: 64976

Re: [Book: Living off Your Money, by M. McClung (Prime Harvesting)]

I guess my worry is that when using this system with a low withdrawal rate my portfolio could become too bond-heavy although that would take awhile. I still (hopefully) have a 40 year horizon (age 52). I will use my Social Security at age 70 as the Guaranteed Income portion. A portfolio can't becom...
by AlohaJoe
Tue Nov 14, 2017 6:40 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: problem new Vanguard Global Wellington fund
Replies: 29
Views: 1893

Re: problem new Vanguard Global Wellington fund

my name wrote:
Tue Nov 14, 2017 6:37 am
Yet, I cannot see any info about the fund.

So I've lost a bit of money. Is this a normal start for a new fund?
Yes, it is normal. Why wouldn't it be?

What "info about the fund" are you looking for? Vanguard released a detailed prospectus. What isn't in there that you're interested about?
by AlohaJoe
Mon Nov 13, 2017 10:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Opinion of Total Stock Market Index
Replies: 21
Views: 2292

Re: Opinion of Total Stock Market Index

TR 2040 has qualified dividends, too, so I'm not sure what you mean by that.
by AlohaJoe
Mon Nov 13, 2017 9:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Book: Living off Your Money, by M. McClung (Prime Harvesting)]
Replies: 395
Views: 64976

Re: [Book: Living off Your Money, by M. McClung (Prime Harvesting)]

Questions: One question I have is that my withdrawal rate is low (under 2%). So maybe all of this makes less sense for my situation? McClung's system -- assuming you are convinced -- is about making your retirement portfolio more efficient. If you're right on the edge then that bit of efficiency sh...
by AlohaJoe
Mon Nov 13, 2017 5:36 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Borrowing against portfolio for home down payment
Replies: 11
Views: 1199

Re: Borrowing against portfolio for home down payment

The margin rates at Vanguard are very high. I think over 7% the last time I looked. Moving assets to a new brokerage takes time, so you'd need to factor that in. (edit: the actual rates https://investor.vanguard.com/investing/margin) First I would make sure that your mortgage lender is okay with thi...
by AlohaJoe
Sun Nov 12, 2017 11:53 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Better way to get rid of old fridge?
Replies: 38
Views: 2450

Re: Better way to get rid of old fridge?

Stick it out next to the street with a sign: First try a sign that says "Free." A scrapper may take it away. If no takers, change the sign to "$50." A thief will then do the job that should have been done by the scrapper. DO NOT DO THIS WITHOUT REMOVING THE DOORS. Kids have been trapped and died in...
by AlohaJoe
Sun Nov 12, 2017 8:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What Makes U.S. Treasuries the World's "Safe" Asset?
Replies: 24
Views: 2479

Re: What Makes U.S. Treasuries the World's "Safe" Asset?

Another factor is the Federal Reserve. Despite all the grief they get from everyone and their cat :D A lot of the perceieved safe-ness of the US Treasuries comes from the negative correlation with other markets during crashes. There's nothing that mathematically requires that to happen -- it is easy...
by AlohaJoe
Sun Nov 12, 2017 8:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fidelity 10X Retirement Rule - - Valid???
Replies: 46
Views: 2964

Re: Fidelity 10X Retirement Rule - - Valid???

It is a perfectly fine rule of thumb, as plenty of empirical research has repeatedly shown. I think the Expenses Brigade always has a knee jerk reaction to this that they don't have for many other topics and I don't understand the religious fervor. If someone saves 10 years of salary by the time th...
by AlohaJoe
Sun Nov 12, 2017 8:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fidelity 10X Retirement Rule - - Valid???
Replies: 46
Views: 2964

Re: Fidelity 10X Retirement Rule - - Valid???

I'm pretty sure he didn't make this rule of thumb for bogleheads and White Coat investers. This is for the general public. I hate to pop your bubble but the investing world doesn't revolve around Bogleheads and Whitecoat investors. Correct. I think 10x salary is a decent starting point for most fol...
by AlohaJoe
Sun Nov 12, 2017 8:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fidelity 10X Retirement Rule - - Valid???
Replies: 46
Views: 2964

Re: Fidelity 10X Retirement Rule - - Valid???

Why don't they just tell people that? 25 X (your expenses minus social security). It's really not that much more complicated. This is the formula I use, and it is a vast improvement. But sadly, I fear it may be too complicated for the average Joe. [...] On the other hand, people generally know how ...
by AlohaJoe
Sun Nov 12, 2017 1:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fidelity 10X Retirement Rule - - Valid???
Replies: 46
Views: 2964

Re: Fidelity 10X Retirement Rule - - Valid???

It is a perfectly fine rule of thumb, as plenty of empirical research has repeatedly shown. I think the Expenses Brigade always has a knee jerk reaction to this that they don't have for many other topics and I don't understand the religious fervor. If someone saves 10 years of salary by the time the...
by AlohaJoe
Fri Nov 10, 2017 9:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does the S&P 500 just *seem* expensive because of sector weights?
Replies: 9
Views: 1106

Re: Does the S&P 500 just *seem* expensive because of sector weights?

Can anyone name a dominant global company based in Europe, I am sure there are some likely pharmaceuticals but right now the dominant companies that are likely to change the world seem to be in either the U.S. or China with a few exceptions. This seems like a silly point to try to make. You could m...
by AlohaJoe
Fri Nov 10, 2017 8:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: David Blanchett: Liability Driven Investing Misapplied
Replies: 16
Views: 1234

David Blanchett: Liability Driven Investing Misapplied

(Consider this an homage to Random Walker's posts on new research.) David Blanchett and Thomas Idzorek have a new paper on liability-driven investing (aka LMP, liability-matching portfolios): "LDI Misapplied: Income Portfolios and Liability-Driven Investing The abstract: Liability-driven investing ...
by AlohaJoe
Fri Nov 10, 2017 8:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wes Gray: Do Trend Folowing Managed Futures Increase Safe Withdrawal Rates?
Replies: 14
Views: 1022

Re: Wes Gray: Do Trend Folowing Managed Futures Increase Safe Withdrawal Rates?

Not sure it’s worthwhile to compare that AQR fund to an index. It uses trend following in multiple asset classes: I think equities, bonds, interest rates, commodities, currencies. It’s sort of it’s own beast I would think. I'm not sure what fund to use then? The other fund discussed in this thread ...
by AlohaJoe
Fri Nov 10, 2017 7:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Slaughtering The High Dividend Sacred Cow
Replies: 192
Views: 12988

Re: Larry Swedroe: Slaughtering The High Dividend Sacred Cow

To solve the problem apart from multi-decade return tabulations Fama and French should include dividends as a separate and additional factor. Then we could read factor studies that highlight alpha's, dividend premium, size premium, value premium, for small, mid, and large cap stocks. Alot of people...
by AlohaJoe
Fri Nov 10, 2017 12:52 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Buying bitcoin / Cryptocurrency to market cap (.3%)
Replies: 42
Views: 3105

Re: Buying bitcoin / Cryptocurrency to market cap (.3%)

There are a lot of things I don't hold at market cap.

I don't think the average Boglehead is going to see much point in holding something that makes up less than 1% of your portfolio. It goes against the general drive to simplify one's portfolio holdings.
by AlohaJoe
Thu Nov 09, 2017 8:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Do telecom stocks have a future?
Replies: 64
Views: 3339

Re: Do telecom stocks have a future?

(2) Are these stocks worth keeping as quasi-bond equivalents? Didn't Sprint drop by 15% today? If I bought a bond and it dropped by 15% in a single day...I think I'd be pretty disappointed with it. I'm not sure in what possible world they can be considered quasi-bond equivalents. 15% was just a few...