Search found 3889 matches

by AlohaJoe
Thu Dec 13, 2018 3:21 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What is/ was your career and would you recommend it now?
Replies: 379
Views: 36715

Re: What types of jobs do Bogleheads have?

Here's the Bogleheads' investment philosophy 1 Develop a workable plan 2 Invest early and often 3 Never bear too much or too little risk 4 Diversify 5 Never try to time the market 6 Use index funds when possible 7 Keep costs low 8 Minimize taxes 9 Invest with simplicity 10 Stay the course so it seem...
by AlohaJoe
Thu Dec 13, 2018 1:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How does negative interest rate work?
Replies: 11
Views: 1187

Re: How does negative interest rate work?

But for savers/investors do they really get negative rate on CD and short duration bonds? Banks have eaten the cost of negative rates for retail clients, so no. I know of one German business that, while I was having dinner with the CEO (it was a group dinner and I was a friend-of-a-friend invite), ...
by AlohaJoe
Wed Dec 12, 2018 7:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Early retirement mistakes???
Replies: 27
Views: 4358

Re: Early retirement mistakes???

At the risk of sounding negative, I would rally like to hear from those brave enough to tell lessons learned by retiring too early. *Did you underestimate the amount needed? *Did you misjudge healthcare costs? The Society of Actuaries (SOA) Committee on Post-Retirement Needs and Risks has a number ...
by AlohaJoe
Wed Dec 12, 2018 7:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: VASVX Capital Gains Distribution - when to sell
Replies: 4
Views: 454

Re: VASVX Capital Gains Distribution - when to sell

https://advisors.vanguard.com/VGApp/iip/site/advisor/researchcommentary/article/IWE_News2018EstYEDstMFsandETFs?EXCMPGN=EX:EM:FAS:010117:ADVISOR:ANNOUNCE:EMAIL:ET:2017&sub=33776&st=S You need to sell before the ex-div date. What is the ex-div date? For Selected Value, the record/declaration date is ...
by AlohaJoe
Tue Dec 11, 2018 9:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shrinking dividends?
Replies: 30
Views: 3908

Re: Shrinking dividends?

An article in the New Republic reports, "The Wall Street Journal found that “57% of the more than 350 companies in the S&P 500 that bought back shares so far this year are trailing the index’s 3.2% increase.” https://newrepublic.com/article/150382/apples-stock-market-scam The whole article is worth...
by AlohaJoe
Tue Dec 11, 2018 8:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What Happened to you during the Financial crisis of 2007–2008
Replies: 170
Views: 12268

Re: What Happened to you during the Financial crisis of 2007–2008

I was 100% stocks. Didn't care about the crash. Went to work. Lived my life. I wasn't going to use the money for several decades anyway. Found the "maybe this is the end of modern economies" stuff histrionic. I was trying to sell my house at the time which meant it took 6 months and I ended up selli...
by AlohaJoe
Tue Dec 11, 2018 4:23 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard order fill
Replies: 12
Views: 905

Re: Vanguard order fill

Asking to find out if any one knows why Vanguard takes so long to fill orders? I placed an order last week and VTSAX went up $3 before the order was finally filled the next day. Of course I paid the higher price per stock because of this. This morning I placed an order (also VTSAX) at 0935 and the ...
by AlohaJoe
Mon Dec 10, 2018 8:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Tax Loss Harvesting - Bonehead Move
Replies: 7
Views: 775

Re: Tax Loss Harvesting - Bonehead Move

https://taxmap.irs.gov/taxmap/pubs/p550 ... MP212cbd13

In particular the section, "More or less stock bought than sold".
by AlohaJoe
Mon Dec 10, 2018 7:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard total corporate VTC: Why is the yield so low compared to its parts?
Replies: 9
Views: 794

Re: Vanguard total corporate VTC: Why is the yield so low compared to its parts?

I would think the advantage of a 'Total Corporate' bond fund, would be that there should be lower turnover, the fund isn't constantly having to sell bonds and buy new ones within its target maturity/duration.... but with Vanguard's VTC being a fund of funds it loses that opportunity, iShares USIG w...
by AlohaJoe
Mon Dec 10, 2018 6:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard total corporate VTC: Why is the yield so low compared to its parts?
Replies: 9
Views: 794

Re: Vanguard total corporate VTC: Why is the yield so low compared to its parts?

As the subject stated, why is the yield so low for thus fund of funds? .07 ER and is split between roughly 40% short, and 30% each long and int corporates. However, the sec yield is 3.47 vs (short, int, long) of 3.69, 4.37, 4.96. ytm is 4.3 with a duration of 7 years and average maturity of 10.5. T...
by AlohaJoe
Mon Dec 10, 2018 2:09 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)
Replies: 792
Views: 262009

Re: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)

Assuming that's correct, and since there is no mention of IRA RMDs , I presume it isn't designed to accommodate those. RMDs have nothing to do with withdrawals. Withdrawals are about spending money. RMDs are about moving money from a tax-deferred account to a taxable account. No one says you have t...
by AlohaJoe
Sun Dec 09, 2018 11:46 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Are US long-term capital gains a marginal tax rate?
Replies: 8
Views: 737

Re: Are US long-term capital gains a marginal tax rate?

Iovanaire wrote:
Sun Dec 09, 2018 10:58 pm
Where do I find (ideally at irs.gov) where this is explained?
Publication 17 "Your Federal Income Tax", which contains the answer for virtually every federal tax question ever asked on Bogleheads. :D
by AlohaJoe
Sat Dec 08, 2018 3:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is the division of international markets into "developed" and "emerging" meaningful?
Replies: 16
Views: 1357

Re: Is the division of international markets into "developed" and "emerging" meaningful?

The US and developed international markets are highly correlated This is true-ish but also a bit misleading. By looking at developed (or emerging) in aggregate it becomes a bit weird to talk about whether they are correlated with the US and whether that's a useful difference between developed and e...
by AlohaJoe
Sat Dec 08, 2018 3:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Retirement Is Broken And Needs To Be Reinvented
Replies: 174
Views: 11965

Re: Why Retirement Is Broken And Needs To Be Reinvented

By this definition, Social Security is not a pension. Contributions are not made by an employer, and the pool of funds is not invested on the employee's behalf. Employers do make a contribution. (Employers contribute exactly the same amount as employees do.) The funds are also invested. Here is the...
by AlohaJoe
Fri Dec 07, 2018 9:02 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: YNAB: Age of Money
Replies: 21
Views: 2580

Re: YNAB: Age of Money

while i don't use YNAB.. easily my money is older then that, as i have 18 months of spending as cash. (also known as an emergency fund) That's not what "Age of Money" means in YNAB, though. It is talking about the money that you spend today, tomorrow, everyday, normally. Not about some emergency fu...
by AlohaJoe
Fri Dec 07, 2018 8:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Retirement Is Broken And Needs To Be Reinvented
Replies: 174
Views: 11965

Re: Why Retirement Is Broken And Needs To Be Reinvented

Social Security is not a pension. It’s an insurance plan, as stated right in the name. I prefer to think of it as a reasonably guaranteed cash flow stream... Those can be the same thing. It doesn’t make it a pension plan and it wasn’t intended as a pension plan. What's the definition of a pension p...
by AlohaJoe
Fri Dec 07, 2018 8:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's Your Personal Inflation Rate?
Replies: 38
Views: 2498

Re: What's Your Personal Inflation Rate?

Inflation, as measured by the CPI, measures the change in prices of a fixed set of items. So if chicken thighs are one of the items and the price of chicken thighs goes up, it will cause an increase in the index. Your substitution of pork chops for chicken thighs isn’t reflected in the CPI changes....
by AlohaJoe
Fri Dec 07, 2018 10:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's the effect of high inflation (in a developing country) when you hold all assets outside the country
Replies: 3
Views: 266

Re: What's the effect of high inflation (in a developing country) when you hold all assets outside the country

If a westerner goes to live in a developing country, and that country has a period of higher inflation than the low inflation of the west, but all assets are held outside that country in a global portfolio, what is the real effect of the inflation for that person purchasing power? Is it essentially...
by AlohaJoe
Fri Dec 07, 2018 1:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Lognormal Inflation Model in Monte Carlo Retirement Planning
Replies: 13
Views: 925

Re: Lognormal Inflation Model in Monte Carlo Retirement Planning

6. If I don't use MC then I'm not sure what to do for retirement planning to estimate if the money will last for 30 years (also an arbitrary choice on my part). I agree with randomguy that there is limited value in trying to be too precise. I don't think there's anything wrong with using Monte Carl...
by AlohaJoe
Thu Dec 06, 2018 9:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Wanting to buy on the dip today didn't workout
Replies: 44
Views: 5890

Re: Wanting to buy on the dip today didn't workout

How do people buy on the spot prices without a monster delay? The settlement times only really apply when you want to withdraw money from an account. Which is what you're trying to do here. Settlement times don't apply when you sell in an account and then want to buy in the same account. If you log...
by AlohaJoe
Thu Dec 06, 2018 8:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Retirement Is Broken And Needs To Be Reinvented
Replies: 174
Views: 11965

Re: Why Retirement Is Broken And Needs To Be Reinvented

Social Security is not a pension plan, it is insurance. [...] It’s sort of astonishing how little people really know about a program that has been in existence since the early 1930’s. My own grandparents referred to Social Security as the “monthly pension”. It seems like a distinction without a dif...
by AlohaJoe
Thu Dec 06, 2018 7:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Retirement Is Broken And Needs To Be Reinvented
Replies: 174
Views: 11965

Re: Why Retirement Is Broken And Needs To Be Reinvented

Lack of education didn't create the problem, education isn't going to fix it. I am also mystified about the calls for education. The article mentions that "only" 16% of high school students are required to take a personal finance class in high school. Where are the results of this massive increase ...
by AlohaJoe
Thu Dec 06, 2018 8:30 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What Now?
Replies: 11
Views: 1168

Re: What Now?

The stock market swings are beyond any reasonable consideration and as an older person(78) I no longer care to participate. This is based on your considered mathematical analysis of the the current market versus all previous markets? Could you post those details? Or did you just make up something t...
by AlohaJoe
Thu Dec 06, 2018 7:35 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How does accumulating bond ETF make money?
Replies: 7
Views: 464

Re: How does accumulating bond ETF make money?

J G Bankerton wrote:
Thu Dec 06, 2018 7:05 am
If these work like regular bonds the principal will return to book value at maturity. Bonds are for income not growth. Hold to maturity and one gets 100% of the principal back.
They don't. In particular they are a fund, not a bond. There is also no income at all.
by AlohaJoe
Thu Dec 06, 2018 7:00 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How does accumulating bond ETF make money?
Replies: 7
Views: 464

Re: How does accumulating bond ETF make money?

Bonds are for income. Buy a 10 year bond at 3% and it will pay 3% a year and after 10 years you get your principal back. The worth of your principal goes up or down depending on interest rate and time to maturity. This is true but irrelevant to the OP's question. The OP is asking about accumulating...
by AlohaJoe
Thu Dec 06, 2018 2:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Lognormal Inflation Model in Monte Carlo Retirement Planning
Replies: 13
Views: 925

Re: Lognormal Inflation Model in Monte Carlo Retirement Planning

What I did was cap the upper limit at 16% (I remember too well the early 80's) with no possibility of deflation. Since there have repeatedly been periods of deflation (more common than high inflation, for that matter), it seems weird to eliminate the possibility. Anyway, for a model it is fine-ish....
by AlohaJoe
Thu Dec 06, 2018 12:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Lognormal Inflation Model in Monte Carlo Retirement Planning
Replies: 13
Views: 925

Re: Lognormal Inflation Model in Monte Carlo Retirement Planning

Using a normal distribution for inflation doesn't make sense to me because in reality we haven't seen many instances of deflation. I don't understand this sentence. If I have a normal process with mean of 15% and standard deviation of 2% it will never go below 0 but will still be a normal distribut...
by AlohaJoe
Wed Dec 05, 2018 11:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why buying homes with mortgages is good but buying stocks on margin is bad
Replies: 36
Views: 2892

Re: Why buying homes with mortgages is good but buying stocks on margin is bad

Can someone explain to me why the advise is NEVER buy stocks on margin; however, everyone who has a mortgage and still buying stocks is basically doing the same thing? Can't seem to wrap my head around this one. I use margin. I have about $270,000 of margin at the moment with Interactive Brokers. I...
by AlohaJoe
Wed Dec 05, 2018 10:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why buying homes with mortgages is good but buying stocks on margin is bad
Replies: 36
Views: 2892

Re: Why buying homes with mortgages is good but buying stocks on margin is bad

To play devil's advocate, if long term bonds are bad investments, why do banks offer them? The argugument is overstated but... First, the US government indirectly subsides the intrest rate on home loans. Second, these long bonds are great for insurance companies and pension funds - risk adverse inv...
by AlohaJoe
Wed Dec 05, 2018 9:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The risks of equities when saving for retirement
Replies: 38
Views: 3361

Re: The risks of equities when saving for retirement

If you think this is a real possibility, your best bet is to buy guns, not bonds. This tired quote -- only ever said by Americans -- is tiresome and completely lacking in factual basis. There have been many examples of negative equity risk premium and buying guns was never the answer. The answer wa...
by AlohaJoe
Wed Dec 05, 2018 7:51 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Advice on an expat assignment in Vietnam
Replies: 6
Views: 1012

Re: Advice on an expat assignment in Vietnam

On the verge of making a major professional and personal decision and wanted to get advice from any of you that have gone / are going down this path. I am a foreigner who moved to Vietnam on an expat assignment several years ago and ended up staying here, retiring here, buying a house here. Feel fr...
by AlohaJoe
Mon Dec 03, 2018 9:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Determining a rate for a loan and...
Replies: 19
Views: 864

Re: Determining a rate for a loan and...

- how do I determine today's current interest for a 7 year loan? I can't compare it to anything I know of since loan institutions seem to advertise rates for 15 and 30 year loans. I don't think I've seen them advertise rates for 7 years. Go to bankrate.com. Click "Mortgage Loans". Click "Purchase"....
by AlohaJoe
Mon Dec 03, 2018 9:10 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: NYT Article: The Myth of Steady Retirement Spending
Replies: 50
Views: 6933

Re: NYT Article: The Myth of Steady Retirement Spending

I'm a homebody who is also a globe trotter, and I'm a foodie. I may or may not become a healthcare spender,. Since you didn't perform cluster analysis on yourself using the proprietary JP Morgan dataset we know your claims are without basis. I don't understand why you are so upset with this study t...
by AlohaJoe
Mon Dec 03, 2018 8:50 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: NYT Article: The Myth of Steady Retirement Spending
Replies: 50
Views: 6933

Re: NYT Article: The Myth of Steady Retirement Spending

I'm a homebody who is also a globe trotter, and I'm a foodie. I may or may not become a healthcare spender,. Since you didn't perform cluster analysis on yourself using the proprietary JP Morgan dataset we know your claims are without basis. I don't understand why you are so upset with this study t...
by AlohaJoe
Mon Dec 03, 2018 8:11 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: NYT Article: The Myth of Steady Retirement Spending
Replies: 50
Views: 6933

Re: NYT Article: The Myth of Steady Retirement Spending

It’s cluster factor analysis to creat statistically relevant groups. It does not mean there is not overlap, but that the dominant tendency is likely in that group. It’s math. Don’t get stuck in the marketing side. The end point, however, is that for 60% of people, spending increases. That's not wha...
by AlohaJoe
Mon Dec 03, 2018 8:00 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: NYT Article: The Myth of Steady Retirement Spending
Replies: 50
Views: 6933

Re: NYT Article: The Myth of Steady Retirement Spending

For example, globe-trotters will travel a lot during their early retirement until they've been to every place they want to go, then their spending will drop considerably as they travel less. That's not what their research found. Surprisingly, perhaps, there are just as many globetrotters over age 7...
by AlohaJoe
Mon Dec 03, 2018 7:57 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: NYT Article: The Myth of Steady Retirement Spending
Replies: 50
Views: 6933

Re: NYT Article: The Myth of Steady Retirement Spending

This part of the article struck me as ridiculous. How on earth is deciding if one is a globe trotter or a health care spender or a foodie helpful in predicting retirement spending? First, those categories are not mutually exclusive and second, the most important one -- health care spender -- is unk...
by AlohaJoe
Mon Dec 03, 2018 6:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Older Dads - how do you plan for your own retirement while still raising kids?
Replies: 38
Views: 5065

Re: Older Dads - how do you plan for your own retirement while still raising kids?

Hi Bogleheads, I read a lot on this forum on planning for retirement (particular early retirement) and saving for kid’s education. However, I have not found a post combining both. I see tons of posts on the subject. Here are few I found with a quick search. https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopi...
by AlohaJoe
Sun Dec 02, 2018 8:07 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: iShares iBonds ETFs
Replies: 5
Views: 720

Re: iShares iBonds ETFs

My fixed income portfolio is composed of a 10 year TIPS ladder, with the rest is in a short term Pimco bond fund. I am considering selling the fund and in its place building a 4-5 year ladder of corporate bonds using the iShares iBonds ETFs. Does anyone use them and if anyone think that there could...
by AlohaJoe
Sun Dec 02, 2018 1:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Coming Retirement Crisis - Real Vision
Replies: 14
Views: 3163

Re: The Coming Retirement Crisis - Real Vision

brentflog wrote:
Sat Dec 01, 2018 9:03 pm
What is this chart?
BolderBoy wrote:
Sat Dec 01, 2018 11:15 pm
Ditto. What is this chart?
AlphaLess wrote:
Sat Dec 01, 2018 11:38 pm
What's the scale on the y-axis?
The chart is the Google Ngram Viewer which shows the trends in words & phrases over time. The y-axis is percent time the phrase is mentioned that year.
by AlohaJoe
Sat Dec 01, 2018 8:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Coming Retirement Crisis - Real Vision
Replies: 14
Views: 3163

Re: The Coming Retirement Crisis - Real Vision

It is one of several videos from Real Vision (Raoul Paul). Interesting analysis - curious what this group thinks/knows about him. I was curious about the last retirement crisis so I went looking https://i.imgur.com/vm1zxHo.png?1 Everyone remember the retirement crisis scare of 1980? Remember how ov...
by AlohaJoe
Sat Dec 01, 2018 7:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stock Buybacks Don't Increase Share Prices
Replies: 33
Views: 2756

Re: Stock Buybacks Don't Increase Share Prices

Let's look at the mathematics of stock buybacks. [...] Now that we understand the underlying mathematics, we can look at the title of this thread, " Stock Buybacks Don't Increase Share Prices ", and confidently state that it is misleading see that it is ambiguous . If it means that the share price ...
by AlohaJoe
Sat Dec 01, 2018 5:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stock Buybacks Don't Increase Share Prices
Replies: 33
Views: 2756

Re: Stock Buybacks Don't Increase Share Prices

Why do people keep repeating the claim that stock buybacks increase share prices? You do know that your theory of how things works has been repeatedly shown to be empirically wrong, right? Do you have any empirical evidence that your theory is correct? "Anomalous Price Behavior Around Repurchase Te...
by AlohaJoe
Sat Dec 01, 2018 4:06 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Vacation for single parent and 2 teens: Belize or where?
Replies: 29
Views: 2308

Re: Vacation for single parent and 2 teens: Belize or where?

My local libraries are awful; the books are so old they are useless. Every library I've ever been to has Inter-Library Loans that allow you to get a book from any library in the country and not simply the ones on the local shelves. One time I wanted to borrow a rare, out of print book on Japanese g...
by AlohaJoe
Fri Nov 30, 2018 9:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The S&P 500 Goes Supernova
Replies: 90
Views: 13160

Re: The S&P 500 Goes Supernova

...the S&P 500 returns have been out of this world since the global financial crisis and is highly unlikely to repeat this performance in our lifetimes... 1) But half of that was just climbing out of the hole. 2) Vanguard 500 Index: 2010-2017 inclusive: CAGR 13.76%, Sharpe ratio 1.13. 1992-1999 inc...
by AlohaJoe
Fri Nov 30, 2018 11:15 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Any single income earners with kids able to retire "early"?
Replies: 23
Views: 1556

Re: Any single income earners with kids able to retire "early"?

So, I was wondering....how many of you BHers are on track OR were able to meet your goal of an "early retirement" as a single incomer with kids? Any advice? I know the medical insurance situation is the elephant in the room.... I retired early in that situation. The advice is to make a lot of money...
by AlohaJoe
Fri Nov 30, 2018 8:42 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Nullify Sequence of Returns Risk by Borrowing?
Replies: 31
Views: 1935

Re: Nullify Sequence of Returns Risk by Borrowing?

Would I alleviate the sequence of returns / failure risk by borrowing the difference above the 4% withdrawal rate? The answer is "yes but no". The short answer is "yes". In all my examinations of the topic, using debt extended the life of portfolios that were under stress. You can read more details...
by AlohaJoe
Thu Nov 29, 2018 9:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Where do the losses in HY show up? [High Yield bonds]
Replies: 62
Views: 4630

Re: Where do the losses in HY show up?

I don't understand what you mean by market failure? Different investors will always prefer investments with different characteristics. But the usual Bogleheads argument about high-yield is that they are mathematically identical to having a bit more equity. There is no "preference" involved. It is p...
by AlohaJoe
Thu Nov 29, 2018 9:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Where do the losses in HY show up? [High Yield bonds]
Replies: 62
Views: 4630

Re: Where do the losses in HY show up?

I think taking risk in bonds is a little silly. Is it? So the trillions of dollars invested in non-government bonds represents a complete failure of efficient markets (and critical thinking) by thousands of people? Doesn't that seem...unlikely? Or at least something that requires a comprehensive ex...