Search found 6547 matches

by AlohaJoe
Sat Mar 16, 2024 7:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anybody heard stories of well "prepared" retirees running out of money?
Replies: 84
Views: 9772

Re: Anybody heard stories of well "prepared" retirees running out of money?

Yes, I know lots of stories. Bogleheads are overly focused on stock market crashes and withdrawal rates. They like to think they can perfectly predict their expenses 50 years out. Some things I've seen push retired people into financial precarity: House insurance rises significantly faster than expected due to wild fires, hurricanes, rising sea levels, land slides, etc adding thousands of dollars of unplanned expenses per year. Property tax increasing significantly faster than inflation because of local gentrification or development of new amenities that become popular. Becoming sole caretaker of grandchildren after the death of their daughter and gaining all the related expenses and needing to set aside money for their college. Discovering...
by AlohaJoe
Sat Jul 01, 2023 4:48 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Bond funds for a resident of emerging country.
Replies: 3
Views: 1412

Re: Bond funds for a resident of emerging country.

There aren't any great answers for someone in your position. (I live in Vietnam, so I've also thought about how bonds could possibly work in a situation like this....) Bonds primarily goal -- from a Bogleheads perspective, at least -- is to dampen volatility in the value (real or nominal) of your portfolio in the currency you use today so that you "sleep well at night" and don't panic when your portfolio drops by 40%. USD-hedged funds work against the "dampen volatility in your current currency" -- if you spend in Euros and your portfolio drops because of forex movements between EUR/USD ... that's not really what your bond portfolio to be doing. On the other hand, I know that for many of us there is some sense that USD i...
by AlohaJoe
Mon Jun 26, 2023 11:27 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Bonds vs SBLOC for cash for home purchase
Replies: 6
Views: 713

Re: Bonds vs SBLOC for cash for home purchase

I was reading various posts on the forum yesterday that were suggesting not to think about mortgage and bonds in the same category in terms of your AA. I'd be interested to hear more opinions from people who share that view. There have been hundreds, possibly thousands, of threads about it over the years. If you search for "reverse bond" you'll find many of them. They tend to cover the same ground over and over again so are a bit repetitive especially for forum regulars. Here's an early one from 2008 (15 years ago!): https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=47550&mrr=1261697621 At the end of the day picking an asset allocation is largely (but not entirely) about what helps you feel comfortable. A lot of people put the...
by AlohaJoe
Fri Jun 23, 2023 11:35 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Bonds vs SBLOC for cash for home purchase
Replies: 6
Views: 713

Re: Bonds vs SBLOC for cash for home purchase

This would shift our AA from 80/20 to 90/10. Your AA is the same either way. If I understand it right: Plan 1: Use SBLOC to take out $700,000 in cash. Sell house for $900k. Use $700k to pay off house, $200k towards mortgage. You're left with: $1.4m equities, $700k bonds, $520k mortgage (a negative bond) for a net AA of 88/12. Plan 2: Use SBLOC to take out $330k. Sell $370k in equities (now $1.03m left) Sell $370 in bonds (now $330k left) and buy equities (back to $1.4m)\ Sell house for $900k. Pay off $330k SBLOC. Put $570k towards new mortgage. You're left with: $1.4m equities, $330k bonds, $150k mortgage (a negative bond) for a net AA of 88/12 Exactly the same both ways. It is only different if you engage in mental math and pretend severa...
by AlohaJoe
Fri Jun 23, 2023 11:21 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Partial ETF Shares
Replies: 11
Views: 1288

Re: Partial ETF Shares

Carolina Shagger wrote: Thu Jun 22, 2023 9:35 pmI guess I will have to let my heirs sort this out.
Why would your heirs have to sort out anything?

We have computers nowadays, all of this is handled automatically at any half decent brokerage. Your heirs will spend exactly 0 minutes sorting anything out.
by AlohaJoe
Fri Jun 16, 2023 12:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: In-kind transfers *from* Optum?
Replies: 14
Views: 1470

Re: In-kind transfers *from* Optum?

I don't think Optum has a choice. Allowing in-kind transfers is a FINRA rule, AFAIK.

https://www.finra.org/rules-guidance/ru ... ules/11870

Anyway, you should call Optum and ask them instead of relying what anonymous people on the internet say. (What if we're wrong?)
by AlohaJoe
Tue May 16, 2023 11:23 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: is there a max limit on a personal check
Replies: 11
Views: 1589

Re: is there a max limit on a personal check

There is no limit.

Mitsubishi once wrote a check for $9 billion.

Image

Your $160,000 is small potatoes by comparison. People write checks that size all the time.
by AlohaJoe
Sun Mar 05, 2023 10:13 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Anyone make use of securities backed loans for house down payments?
Replies: 15
Views: 2235

Re: Anyone make use of securities backed loans for house down payments?

hap_ca wrote: Sun Mar 05, 2023 12:40 am I’m thinking about potentially transferring assets to Schwab which offers a Pledged Asset Line and a partnership with rocket mortgage.
Check how long the hold time is between transferring new assets in and transferring margin cash out.

When I used margin to buy a house a few years ago, I didn't read the fine print closely enough and discovered there was a 10 business day waiting period. Which meant 2 weeks. Luckily the seller ran into delays of their own so I didn't have to explain why I didn't have the money when I told them I would.
by AlohaJoe
Fri Feb 17, 2023 11:34 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Tax Efficiency 2022 (this year adds Avantis to Vanguard and iShares)
Replies: 20
Views: 6116

Re: Tax Efficiency 2022 (this year adds Avantis to Vanguard and iShares)

jcloudm wrote: Fri Feb 17, 2023 12:43 pm This is a follow on to excellent work done by triceratop here and here and followed up by someone else in 2018 that I could never find
I posted it as a comment in the 2017 thread, so that's probably why you couldn't find it.

viewtopic.php?p=4788420#p4788420
by AlohaJoe
Fri Feb 03, 2023 11:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Deep history of stock and bond returns
Replies: 107
Views: 17311

Re: Deep history of stock and bond returns

Apologies if I missed this in the discussion, but was there a determination made of the historical real return of short term (1-3 year) treasuries? In various internet sources, I've seen bills listed at about 0.5%, and intermediate treasuries as about 2% - I suppose that would put short term treasuries somewhere in between, just a guess but maybe at about 1-1.5% real? Is that correct? It depends on what you're going to use it for. As a high-level estimate, sure it's fine. In reality, the yield curve has varied tremendously over time. I think it was basically always negatively sloping until the 1930s. Then the structure of bonds and investing changed and now that would be very unusual outside of a recession. And during the 1950s the whole s...
by AlohaJoe
Sun Jan 15, 2023 9:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Chart of previous stock market returns 1928-2022
Replies: 48
Views: 6163

Re: Chart of previous stock market returns 1928-2022

burritoLover wrote: Wed Jan 04, 2023 10:17 am I always wonder how they reconstruct an S&P 500 index going back to 1928. Is it just the top 500 companies or do they try to duplicate profitability screens/etc?
The company that makes the S&P goes back to 1860. S&P stands for "Standard & Poor's". Henry Varnum Poor published his first set of financial data on railroad companies in 1860. So the company is substantially older than you probably thought.
by AlohaJoe
Wed Jan 11, 2023 8:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?
Replies: 1177
Views: 204284

Re: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?

Sure. With 7 years remaining a year 2000 retiree has left (all amounts are adjusted for inflation, as is usual in these calculations). With a 60/40 portfolio: $566,000 (14x expenses) With a 3-fund portfolio (40% US, 20% intl, 40% bond): $498,000 (12x expenses) With a 100% US equity portfolio: $300,000 (7x expenses) Link to PortfolioVisualizer If we saw another 50% drop right now (i.e. on top of the current draw down), the 60/40 portfolio would be fine. Even the 3-fund portfolio is almost certainly bulletproof at this point. Even the 100% stocks portfolio is probably going to work out fine, assuming the market recovers in the next year or two. And if they are worried, they could spend $300,000 to buy an immediate annuity that pays out $40,00...
by AlohaJoe
Wed Jan 11, 2023 8:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Structure of Vanguard - should you be worried?
Replies: 162
Views: 11684

Re: Structure of Vanguard - should you be worried?

Dry-Drink wrote: Wed Jan 11, 2023 4:28 pm Board members of companies have a fiduciary duty to maximize shareholder profits.
No they don't. This is flat out wrong. It is a persistent myth.

https://www.nytimes.com/roomfordebate/2 ... ze-profits
To quote the U.S. Supreme Court opinion in the recent Hobby Lobby case: “Modern corporate law does not require for-profit corporations to pursue profit at the expense of everything else, and many do not.”
Chik-fil-a closes on Sundays, which definitely doesn't maximize shareholder profits. There are thousands of similar examples out there.
by AlohaJoe
Tue Dec 20, 2022 9:09 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Remote work from Spain
Replies: 12
Views: 2294

Re: Remote work from Spain

Hello, I plan to spend 2-weeks in Spain in January. I am a US Citizen and work for a US company. Is it legal to remotely work from Spain (for a US company) for about 5-7 business days? Any legal or tax implications? Thanks. In general, no it isn't legal. (This comes up all the time in digital nomad discussions.) To work in a foreign country -- even to work for a US-based company -- you need to have a work permit or a business visa (and your activities follow the rules for the business visa). No country allows people to work while traveling on a tourist visa. Usually the tourist visa explicitly disallows doing anything that earns money. Yes, it is all a bit 19th century and doesn't really match up with how people travel and work in the 21st...
by AlohaJoe
Thu Dec 15, 2022 11:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?
Replies: 1177
Views: 204284

Re: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?

Any updates on this as of October 2022 is greatly appreciated! Current balance $856,405 or $483,648 inflation adjusted As of end of November 60/40 portfolio balance (inflation-adjusted): $630,000 (15x spending remaining) 100% stocks (inflation-adjusted): $555,000 (13x spending remaining) 40/20/40 (3-fund: US/Intl/Bond): $361,000 (9x spending remaining) Looks to me that you need to swap the 100% stock and 40/20/40 figures around .. to .. 100% stocks (inflation-adjusted): $361,000 (9x spending remaining) 40/20/40 (3-fund: US/Intl/Bond): $555,000 (13x spending remaining) Thanks for the correction, I clearly wasn't paying close enough attention when I copied & pasted from PortfolioVisualizer. Also, that is cutting it real close for a 3 fun...
by AlohaJoe
Wed Dec 14, 2022 8:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?
Replies: 1177
Views: 204284

Re: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?

alex123711 wrote: Sat Nov 19, 2022 5:41 pm
pop77 wrote: Wed Nov 02, 2022 5:45 pm Any updates on this as of October 2022 is greatly appreciated!
Current balance $856,405 or $483,648 inflation adjusted
As of end of November

60/40 portfolio balance (inflation-adjusted): $630,000 (15x spending remaining)
100% stocks (inflation-adjusted): $555,000 (13x spending remaining)
40/20/40 (3-fund: US/Intl/Bond): $361,000 (9x spending remaining)


Copy & paste error. See seajay's correction at viewtopic.php?p=7010014#p7010014

60/40 portfolio balance (inflation-adjusted): $630,000 (15x spending remaining)
100% stocks (inflation-adjusted): $361,000 (9x spending remaining)
40/20/40 (3-fund: US/Intl/Bond): $555,000 (13x spending remaining)
by AlohaJoe
Sat Dec 10, 2022 10:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retirees: who really keeps track of their withdrawal rate?
Replies: 74
Views: 8466

Re: Retirees: who really keeps track of their withdrawal rate?

I track it.

I can't imagine being so selfish I wouldn't use my money to help my family, community, and other causes I care about.

If I spend $60,000 on myself and my withdrawal rate spreadsheet says I can spend $75,000 this year, that means I can give thousands to a niece who is pregnant and expecting a baby, or a nephew who is in an elite basketball program that stretches his parents finances. Or the program nearby that takes in street children and teaches them skills so they can get jobs.

[An off-topic comment has been removed - moderator ClaycordJCA.]
by AlohaJoe
Thu Dec 08, 2022 6:23 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: After living abroad, now need to buy US health ins.
Replies: 3
Views: 552

Re: After living abroad, now need to buy US health ins.

healthcare.gov

Just follow the instructions there.
by AlohaJoe
Wed Dec 07, 2022 8:18 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Best Luggage Set
Replies: 23
Views: 2720

Re: Best Luggage Set

LegacyWealth2013 wrote: Wed Dec 07, 2022 7:51 pm Thank you for recommendations of luggage brands and sets to review for long term heavy use (24 trips minimum per year). Also, if you have guidance about particular design features and functionality I should consider, I would love that too. I am aware that there may be some design updates in luggage since I last purchased in 2010.
I've used a Rick Steves "Classic Back Door Bag" for 25 years now, including a period when I flew internationally (Vietnam - Australia) every 6 weeks or so for work.

I only bought a new bag recently because I got bored of having the same bag for so long :D
by AlohaJoe
Wed Dec 07, 2022 9:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 4% Rule Conundrum
Replies: 150
Views: 13263

Re: 4% Rule Conundrum

educatedguesser wrote: Wed Dec 07, 2022 7:00 am
exodusing wrote: Wed Dec 07, 2022 6:45 amThere have been many posts on this issue...
Thanks - could you point me to a post that explains it best in your opinion?
viewtopic.php?t=329473
by AlohaJoe
Mon Dec 05, 2022 9:00 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Is Vanguard always this tardy?
Replies: 10
Views: 1656

Re: Is Vanguard always this tardy?

investor4life wrote: Mon Dec 05, 2022 6:52 pm it should have gone through soon after COB on Friday, no?
This is what Vanguard says "when are transactions processed"
These transactions then go through a nightly processing cycle and are generally reflected in the account the morning following the trade date (approximately 8 a.m., Eastern time).
So it happens sometime at night because Vanguard apparently runs their IT on a single laptop from the 1980s or something.....
by AlohaJoe
Mon Dec 05, 2022 12:28 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Method for consolidating all tax lots?
Replies: 11
Views: 1150

Re: Method for consolidating all tax lots?

leetcodelegend wrote: Sun Dec 04, 2022 6:36 pm This becomes a challenge when I'm looking to sell off to raise cash and want to pick the tax lot with the lowest capital gains, in order to minimize my capital gains tax
Good brokerages handle this automatically for you. There's no need to pick individual lots in the 21st century when computers can easily do it.

Schwab calls it Tax Lot Optimizer. Fidelity calls it Tax-Sensitive. Interactive Brokers calls it Tax Optimizer. TD Ameritrade calls it Tax Efficient Loss Harvester. WellsTrade has Lowest Cost Short Term. I'm sure other brokerages call it other things but I'm not going to Google anymore....
by AlohaJoe
Thu Dec 01, 2022 7:08 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Living on dividends during retirement
Replies: 77
Views: 13796

Re: Living on dividends during retirement

bpkasl wrote: Thu Dec 01, 2022 7:00 am Our total bond index vbtlx pays infrequently as opposed to BND which is monthly so thinking about a switch
VBTLX pays monthly, so I'm not sure what you're talking about

https://investor.vanguard.com/investmen ... tributions
by AlohaJoe
Wed Nov 30, 2022 8:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Interactive Brokers (Best Kept Secret)
Replies: 924
Views: 207669

Re: Interactive Brokers (Best Kept Secret)

In addition to tracking the total absolute yield I'm interested to see how sticky/volatile the utilization and unusually elevated fee rate is over time (hoping it's not transient from day to day, week-week, etc...). It is extremely transient. Just this year I've had it as low as $48 for all of January up to $638 in August, with the exact same securities. Interest rates have changed significantly since January, I'm certain everyone has received more for share lending since the beginning of the year. I'd say without actually crunching the numbers my shares are lent out at a relatively similar amount and frequency every month that I've looked. The change isn't due to interest rates. It went from $48 to $638. Are you suggesting that rates went...
by AlohaJoe
Wed Nov 30, 2022 8:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Interactive Brokers (Best Kept Secret)
Replies: 924
Views: 207669

Re: Interactive Brokers (Best Kept Secret)

corp_sharecropper wrote: Wed Nov 30, 2022 8:07 am In addition to tracking the total absolute yield I'm interested to see how sticky/volatile the utilization and unusually elevated fee rate is over time (hoping it's not transient from day to day, week-week, etc...).
It is extremely transient. Just this year I've had it as low as $48 for all of January up to $638 in August, with the exact same securities.
by AlohaJoe
Tue Nov 22, 2022 10:53 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Tax prep software sharing sensitive financial data with Meta
Replies: 54
Views: 5259

Re: Article: Major tax-filing websites secretly share income data with Meta

Joey Jo Jo Jr wrote: Tue Nov 22, 2022 10:42 pm I’ve never understood why someone didn’t start a nonprofit version of the various social media companies that ensured privacy and put the vampires out of business. Are the IP limitations that difficult to overcome?
There have been many such attempts. Why do you assume it would be automatically successful? They have all failed for a reason. The people have spoken: they don't value privacy and most aren't willing to pay even $1 for it.
by AlohaJoe
Mon Nov 21, 2022 12:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Sequence of Health Risk: AKA What Age is it Worth Planning For a Full Life To?
Replies: 73
Views: 9283

Re: Sequence of Health Risk: AKA What Age is it Worth Planning For a Full Life To?

This 2016 article covers most of the research on this line of thinking.

https://www.kitces.com/blog/age-banding ... -category/

As it notes, a combination of the "end of history illusion" cognitive bias and the relative complexity of trying to take it into account tends to mean it is pretty rare for people to talk about.
by AlohaJoe
Fri Nov 18, 2022 12:27 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Check refrigerated items on a 30 hour intl airplane trip?
Replies: 53
Views: 6000

Re: Check refrigerated items on a 30 hour intl airplane trip?

We are traveling to SE Asia. It is DW's home country. DW wants to bring the refrigerated baby food (it is sold refrigerated, is NOT shelf stable, also says cannot be frozen). DS is pretty picky so I understand, although I worry it will spoil. Most things in this country are done with bribes, so I suspected any customs issues will be taken care of this way (usually call to DW's parents who call someone they know etc). Unfortunately, this makes quality control for products sold in stores also quite poor in this country, so I'm not sure I would feel comfortable with baby food there. DS can eat real food and does so, but again is quite picky... I live in Vietnam, which is where you are traveling to. Your understanding of quality control in any...
by AlohaJoe
Thu Nov 17, 2022 1:08 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: [How to save for non-working spouse's retirement]
Replies: 15
Views: 2165

Re: Spouse is emigrant without American degree/no income/ 3 kids

Lots and lots of people have stay at home spouses who don't work.

You can save money without using a 401k. A 401k is nice but not necessary.
by AlohaJoe
Wed Nov 16, 2022 2:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Inflation + GDP Growth = Long Term Total Stock Index Growth?
Replies: 19
Views: 1851

Re: Inflation + GDP Growth = Long Term Total Stock Index Growth?

Long Term Total Stock Market Index Growth = Inflation + GDP Growth (+/- short term valuation changes)? Nope, this equation doesn't really make any sense. US companies don't only sell in the US and don't only produce in the US. What does US inflation matter when a company's factories are in Indonesia, for instance? What does US GDP growth matter when 50% of sales from outside the US? And on the flip side, dilution means things don't keep up with GDP either. See "The Two-Percent Dilution" by Arnott & Bernstein. Plus I doubt you are actually any good at predicting what productivity growth or demographic growth (including immigration) is likely to be over the next 20-30 years. Not a slight on you; nobody has an actual track recor...
by AlohaJoe
Sun Nov 13, 2022 8:23 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Which international return figures can be relied upon?
Replies: 14
Views: 1951

Re: Which international return figures can be relied upon?

johnanglemen wrote: Sun Nov 13, 2022 1:33 pm And all I'm asking is: Can I trust those numbers? Because I seem to recall that at various times, someone will ask "hey, why has so-and-so international fund performed so poorly relative to its benchmark or relative to <some other fund>?" And then someone else will chime in and say "ignore that, it's just because of noise in how international NAVs are calculated."
Yes, you can trust those numbers. The things people are talking about have very small effects over very short periods of time (like, over night) and really only applies to mutual funds (since ETFs are priced by the wisdom of the crowds instead of mutual fund managers at 4pm).
by AlohaJoe
Sat Nov 12, 2022 10:47 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Which international return figures can be relied upon?
Replies: 14
Views: 1951

Re: Which international return figures can be relied upon?

johnanglemen wrote: Sat Nov 12, 2022 2:25 pm Thank you! Is there any way to specify which types of return figures should *not* be relied on?
Honestly, I don't understand the original claim. It doesn't make much sense. You'd need to link to someone trying to explain what they mean by it.

You can trust all performance numbers.
by AlohaJoe
Sat Nov 12, 2022 2:24 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Which international return figures can be relied upon?
Replies: 14
Views: 1951

Re: Which international return figures can be relied upon?

johnanglemen wrote: Sat Nov 12, 2022 12:15 am My question is, if I plug Vanguard Total International (VTIAX) and Fidelity Total International (FTIHX) into Morningstar Charts or Portfolio Visualizer in order to compare them, can I rely on the results if it tells me that, say, VTIAX returned 9.52% vs FTIHX returning 9.36%?
Yes.
by AlohaJoe
Fri Nov 11, 2022 11:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is tilting ever a good idea?
Replies: 166
Views: 13708

Re: Is tilting ever a good idea?

I’m guessing a lot of us are tilting to US, without considering it a tilt. Exactly. Everyone here tilts. Absolutely nobody here has the "market weight" of stocks vs. bonds (why would the fact that insurance companies are required by law to own bonds shape my own bond holdings?) or US bonds vs international bonds. They also (usually) don't even have US junk bonds or US municipals or US TIPS in market weight (Total Bond Market funds usually exclude them: "Provides broad exposure to the taxable investment-grade U.S. dollar-denominated bond market, excluding inflation-protected and tax-exempt bonds."). They don't hold gold at its market weight. They don't hold Bitcoin at its market weight. They don't hold real estate at its...
by AlohaJoe
Thu Nov 10, 2022 7:47 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: A warning for using Fully Paid Lending Programs
Replies: 39
Views: 11509

Re: A warning for using Fully Paid Lending Programs

Loandapper wrote: Fri Mar 18, 2022 5:11 pm If someone ONLY has ETFs (VTI/VOO/SPY) and some individual large cap stocks, would this still be an issue?
Yes.

Why do you think that would make it not an issue?
by AlohaJoe
Thu Nov 10, 2022 3:29 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: VWRA Liquidity, Spread& limit price
Replies: 6
Views: 1321

Re: VWRA Liquidity, Spread& limit price

- 2 Avoid trading at either the market open or close (see box of key terms on page 3); I don't think this advice is really valid any more. 70-75% of trading happens in the first and last hour of the day, so that's where all the liquidity is, so that's where the bid-ask spread is best. By avoiding market open and close you're intentionally avoiding the most liquid trading times and increasing your bid-ask spread. The Vanguard paper suggests not to trade before 10:15am because they think it takes market makers 45 minutes to figure out how to price things. Which, I dunno, maybe that was the case in 2015 when they wrote the paper but isn't really true now. And they say not to trade after 3:45 because they claim market makers stop working. But ...
by AlohaJoe
Thu Nov 10, 2022 12:44 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: The Ten Cheapest Countries to Live in
Replies: 5
Views: 1220

Re: The Ten Cheapest Countries to Live in

I live in Vietnam and am moderately familiar with some of the other countries on the list (Cambodia, Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia)

This list is dumb. It is mindless "content" to generate advertising clicks. Anyone using that list for anything but entertainment is crazy. They suggest Nha Trang, Vietnam; Udon Thani, Thailand; and Sihanoukville, Cambodia.

:oops:
by AlohaJoe
Wed Nov 09, 2022 7:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Planning for Social Security after 2040
Replies: 114
Views: 9118

Re: Planning for Social Security after 2040

Kookaburra wrote: Wed Nov 09, 2022 7:39 pmIs it as simple as multiplying the projected SS income shown by 75%?
Yes.
by AlohaJoe
Tue Nov 08, 2022 9:28 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Withdraw large sum of cash from online bank
Replies: 44
Views: 3554

Re: Withdraw large sum of cash from online bank

harkdh wrote: Tue Nov 08, 2022 11:25 am My question is, what methods, if any, are there to withdraw a large sum of cash right away, say in the tune of $5,000 to $10,000?
Why don't you call the online bank and ask them instead of asking us. Surely they would give you a definitive answer.
by AlohaJoe
Mon Nov 07, 2022 8:48 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: do not understand my margin account ; please help
Replies: 11
Views: 1793

Re: do not understand my margin account ; please help

Call your broker and tell them you want to switch back to a regular account.
by AlohaJoe
Sun Nov 06, 2022 8:04 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How to incorporate rising sea levels into house purchase
Replies: 62
Views: 5160

Re: How to incorporate rising sea levels into house purchase

davidferrer31 wrote: Sun Nov 06, 2022 4:56 pm My question is, how does one tell if a town/city will be liveable during the rising sea levels in coming years?
To actually answer your question:

The local, state, and federal government all do studies and reports on this kind of thing for communities.

Newburyport in particular has a Resiliency Committee that has published a Climate Resiliency Plan that you can look up.

The US Army Corps of Engineers has also published detailed climate change preparedness and resiliency plans.
by AlohaJoe
Sun Nov 06, 2022 7:42 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: can wire transfers initiated over the weekend be cancelled?
Replies: 8
Views: 773

Re: can wire transfers initiated over the weekend be cancelled?

boglechiq wrote: Sun Nov 06, 2022 12:14 am is there anyway she could cancel the wire and i get stuck with no money and no car?
Yes, the wire transfer could be cancelled.

In general wire transfers can be cancelled up until the money is "picked up" by the receiving bank. In your case that (probably) means it could be cancelled until some time on Monday or possibly Tuesday when your bank starts processing the transfer.

Virtually all banks allow you to cancel the wire transfer within a few minutes (30 minutes is a common window) of making it. That is, they could make a wire transfer, take a screenshot, then call their bank and say they made a mistake and have it cancelled.
by AlohaJoe
Sat Nov 05, 2022 9:25 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Vacation home <= 10% of net worth?
Replies: 4
Views: 1321

Re: Vacation home <= 10% of net worth?

No, I don't think rules of thumb like that make any sense.

Most rules of thumb based on your net worth are nonsensical.

Figure out from first principles whether you can afford the vacation home and whether you'd get enough value from it to be worth the price you'd pay.
by AlohaJoe
Thu Nov 03, 2022 5:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard not serving investors with this new dog? [Active ESG stock fund]
Replies: 68
Views: 6727

Re: Vanguard not serving investors with this new dog?

BitTooAggressive wrote: Thu Nov 03, 2022 3:23 am The exact opposite of a low cost, diversified, index fund.
You seem to be under the mistaken belief that Vanguard only has low cost, diversified index funds. It's had funds like Capital Opportunity, Explorer, PRIMECAP, and others for a long time.

Jack Bogle launched a bunch of terrible funds way back in 1983-84 to capitalize on the bull market that had kicked off in August 1982. That's when all their active sector funds were launched.

Vanguard has never been only about diversified index funds.
by AlohaJoe
Sat Oct 29, 2022 8:24 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Is favoring buybacks over Dividends an example of "Tail wagging the dog" ?
Replies: 15
Views: 1971

Re: Is favoring buybacks over Dividends an example of "Tail wagging the dog" ?

When a dividend is issued, the market expectation is that it remains stable and ideally increases slowly overtime. If a dividend is cut or reduced the stock will be asymmetrically punished by the market, which encourages the board to maintain and grow it at a predictable cadence. I'm surprised that you don't draw the obvious conclusion from this that since companies are asymmetrically punished it causes them to hoard money and invest in borderline projects, vanity projects, or worse rather than return it as a dividend and risk having to cut it next year. By having the flexibility to cut buybacks without being penalized, companies are able to actually return cash to investors instead of hoarding it. You've set up a completely invalid compar...
by AlohaJoe
Sat Oct 29, 2022 8:15 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: recurrent international money transfer
Replies: 21
Views: 1620

Re: recurrent international money transfer

longlife wrote: Sat Oct 29, 2022 6:50 pm Fidelity seems to offer free wires – not sure if this includes free international wires as well? Are there any limits on the frequency and the amount?
You should call Fidelity and ask them.

The amounts you are discussing are currently under the annual gift tax exclusion limits.
by AlohaJoe
Thu Oct 27, 2022 12:38 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Unknown bank a/c number linked to my Fidelity ROTH IRA by Plaid
Replies: 4
Views: 3966

Re: Unknown bank a/c number linked to my Fidelity ROTH IRA by Plaid

What did Fidelity say when you called them to ask about this?
by AlohaJoe
Tue Oct 25, 2022 10:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Replacing bonds with cash - new historical analysis
Replies: 30
Views: 3861

Re: Replacing bonds with cash - new historical analysis

Poe22 wrote: Tue Oct 25, 2022 10:38 am Suppose he used treasury bills: 1 month are at 3.6%.
Those are bonds.

So the article is really about short term bonds versus medium term bonds?
by AlohaJoe
Tue Oct 25, 2022 9:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Replacing bonds with cash - new historical analysis
Replies: 30
Views: 3861

Re: Replacing bonds with cash - new historical analysis

Poe22 wrote: Tue Oct 25, 2022 7:12 am- Using cash instead of bonds yields better success rates.
I don't see how this is possible.

In the Great Depression 11,000 banks failed. There was no FDIC. Anyone with cash in those banks suffered a100% loss.

It is mathematically impossible for cash to have a higher SWR than government bonds unless you assume that you somehow knew in advance which banks to not put your cash in.

But if you're going to make weird assumptions like that why not just assume you invested in a fund that never had a down year?

The only way to avoid idiosyncratic risk on cash before FDIC is to have actual cash in your house. But then there's no interest being earned and cash does much worse than bonds in other periods.
by AlohaJoe
Sun Oct 23, 2022 5:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Margin Rates are rising - Are you still using margin to leverage?
Replies: 30
Views: 4251

Re: Margin Rates are rising - Are you still using margin to leverage?

RayKeynes wrote: Fri Jun 24, 2022 3:03 am Are there statitics available what % in the stock market uses margin loans and might get squeezed by increasing rates and thus forced to sell?
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BOGZ1FL663067003Q

Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US)

Release: Z.1 Financial Accounts of the United States

Units: Millions of Dollars, Not Seasonally Adjusted

Frequency: Quarterly

Source ID: FL663067003.Q