Search found 4012 matches

by AlohaJoe
Sat Jan 19, 2019 3:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My trend following strategy and experience
Replies: 132
Views: 4323

Re: My trend following strategy and experience

You've got over 1,000 replies to go before you catch up to the greatest trend following post/flamewar in Bogleheads's history

viewtopic.php?t=27460

Good luck on your adventure ;)
by AlohaJoe
Sat Jan 19, 2019 2:35 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Wire $50K Out of the Country
Replies: 9
Views: 715

Re: Wire $50K Out of the Country

Question for foreign wires. This happens to me and happens to foreign clients who wire money to me. When someone wires, say $1000, to a foreign bank (or vice versa), I receive only $975 and I also pay a $15 wire transfer fee, so I only receive $960. How come I can't receive $1000 (of course I owe t...
by AlohaJoe
Fri Jan 18, 2019 9:37 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Wire $50K Out of the Country
Replies: 9
Views: 715

Re: Wire $50K Out of the Country

Looking for a recommendation on the best way to wire $50K Out of the country. My bank offer wire transfers but their exchange rate is not the greatest and will end up losing close to $1K because of their exchange rate. Why are you using your bank to exchange money? Just wire it in USD and leave it ...
by AlohaJoe
Thu Jan 17, 2019 10:25 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Have I Now Become Out of Touch Financially? Aging question...
Replies: 90
Views: 10646

Re: Have I Now Become Out of Touch Financially? Aging question...

The Fed might say inflation is around 2% The Federal Reserve doesn't measure inflation. From the latest fed meeting notes: "The information reviewed for the December 18-19 meeting indicated that labor market conditions continued to strengthen in recent months and that real GDP growth was strong. Co...
by AlohaJoe
Thu Jan 17, 2019 8:07 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How long until we see negative ER funds?
Replies: 39
Views: 2474

Re: How long until we see negative ER funds?

I have not seen a straight answer from Fidelity as to what happens to lending revenue. I'm not sure what you mean by straight answer here -- what else does Fidelity need to say beyond what is in the prospectus and annual reports? -- but Fidelity ZERO Total Market Index Fund made $7.4 million in sec...
by AlohaJoe
Thu Jan 17, 2019 7:44 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How long until we see negative ER funds?
Replies: 39
Views: 2474

Re: How long until we see negative ER funds?

I have not seen a straight answer from Fidelity as to what happens to lending revenue. I'm not sure what you mean by straight answer here -- what else does Fidelity need to say beyond what is in the prospectus and annual reports? -- but Fidelity ZERO Total Market Index Fund made $7.4 million in sec...
by AlohaJoe
Thu Jan 17, 2019 7:34 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How long until we see negative ER funds?
Replies: 39
Views: 2474

Re: How long until we see negative ER funds?

This assumes that securities lending revenue is passed on to the fund’s shareholders. Is there any evidence that that does indeed happen? Yes, there is evidence. There is no assumption being made. You can read the annual reports that are filed with the SEC and sent to every fund holder. In the year...
by AlohaJoe
Thu Jan 17, 2019 7:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If Everyone Did The 3 Fund Vanguard Strategy, Would Vanguard Be Controlling US Companies?
Replies: 10
Views: 1373

Re: If Everyone Did The 3 Fund Vanguard Strategy, Would Vanguard Be Controlling US Companies?

If everyone did the 3 Fund Vanguard strategy, would any of these be true? "What if everyone in the world gave AlohaJoe all their money? Would that mean he controls all the companies? Or would it mean he is broke because money ceases to have value? And how can I use these insights in a personal & ac...
by AlohaJoe
Thu Jan 17, 2019 11:46 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How long until we see negative ER funds?
Replies: 39
Views: 2474

Re: How long until we see negative ER funds?

What makes you think there isn't already a negative ER fund? VTWO (from Vanguard) & IWM (from iShares) already have negative effective ERs. The world has long since moved past ER at the truly meaningful number thanks to confounding factors like securities lending. What really matters is tracking err...
by AlohaJoe
Thu Jan 17, 2019 7:09 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Have I Now Become Out of Touch Financially? Aging question...
Replies: 90
Views: 10646

Re: Have I Now Become Out of Touch Financially? Aging question...

HAL 9000 wrote:
Wed Jan 16, 2019 9:26 pm
The Fed might say inflation is around 2%
The Federal Reserve doesn't measure inflation.
by AlohaJoe
Wed Jan 16, 2019 11:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retirement savings new research
Replies: 23
Views: 4346

Re: Retirement savings new research

It is similar (overlapping) what Wade Phau says that when you retire that getting through the first few years is everything. He prefers a higher concentration in bonds and then slowly increasing your stock holdings I think that's a mischaracterisation. He prefers you not hold any bonds at all. Read...
by AlohaJoe
Wed Jan 16, 2019 10:29 pm
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Australian Chapter ?
Replies: 16
Views: 3778

Re: Australian Chapter ?

Any more Sydneysiders hanging around? I know a couple more Boglehead sympathisers on other forums. I'm a Sydneysider. But I think it is an uphill battle to make this forum anything but American-focused and you're better off trying to start an Australian equivalent somewhere else. (I think Canadians...
by AlohaJoe
Wed Jan 16, 2019 8:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why are you NOT buying rental properties?
Replies: 190
Views: 12009

Re: Why are you NOT buying rental properties?

So, I have to ask..if you are willing to hustle and you have the money, why are you not buying rental properties? No mortgages where I live, so I'd have to pay the full price in cash, so no leverage. No tax benefits where I live. No insurance where I live, so all damages & liabilities are paid in f...
by AlohaJoe
Wed Jan 16, 2019 1:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When would you stop being a Boglehead?
Replies: 90
Views: 6719

Re: When would you stop being a Boglehead?

Pretty much everyone here (myself included) is convinced about the low-cost, do-it-yourself investing philosophy. But I’m curious: at which point would you start considering to delegate the management of your portfolio to firms like Merrill Lynch and Morgan Stanley? $10M? $50M? Literally never? I w...
by AlohaJoe
Wed Jan 16, 2019 12:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: An Annuity Hater Revisits SPIAs
Replies: 22
Views: 2826

Re: An Annuity Hater Revisits SPIAs

When did 10% become "hyperinflation"? Sheesh, talk about watering down the meaning of words.
by AlohaJoe
Tue Jan 15, 2019 9:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Book on withdrawal strategies / retirement income?
Replies: 19
Views: 1827

Re: Book on withdrawal strategies / retirement income?

http://longevity.stanford.edu/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/Optimizing-Retirement-Income-Solutions-November-2017-SCL-Version.pdf http://longevity.stanford.edu/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/How-to-pensionize-any-IRA-401k-final.pdf One of the co-authors -- Steve Vernon -- has published a book Retirement Ga...
by AlohaJoe
Tue Jan 15, 2019 10:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Book on withdrawal strategies / retirement income?
Replies: 19
Views: 1827

Re: Book on withdrawal strategies / retirement income?

I'm considering buying How Much Can I Spend in Retirement?: A Guide to Investment-Based Retirement Income Strategies by Wade Pfau next. I found this pretty....not good. And definitely not practical. Could you give us the one paragraph expansion of that statement? The book is mostly a collection of ...
by AlohaJoe
Mon Jan 14, 2019 8:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Book on withdrawal strategies / retirement income?
Replies: 19
Views: 1827

Re: Book on withdrawal strategies / retirement income?

germark wrote:
Mon Jan 14, 2019 3:47 pm
I'm considering buying How Much Can I Spend in Retirement?: A Guide to Investment-Based Retirement Income Strategies by Wade Pfau next.
I found this pretty....not good. And definitely not practical.
by AlohaJoe
Mon Jan 14, 2019 7:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: PG&E Bonds
Replies: 49
Views: 5050

Re: PG&E Bonds

Also looks like you might get to see what happens in real time since PG&E just announced it would file for bankruptcy this morning... And their stock is down about 50% at the moment. In a capital structure reorganization shareholders are last in line to be paid. Frequently there's nothing left afte...
by AlohaJoe
Sun Jan 13, 2019 10:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Opinion: Half of investment-grade bonds are only one step away from junk status
Replies: 23
Views: 2402

Re: Opinion: Half of investment-grade bonds are only one step away from junk status

I hope my perception of biting sarcasm in your response is false. Of the major investment-grade corporate bond funds, the Vanguard Intermediate-Term Corporate Bond ETF (VCIT) is the riskiest to own. This $18 billion fund yields 3.6% (TTM, or trailing 12 months) but has a dangerous mix of assets. VC...
by AlohaJoe
Sun Jan 13, 2019 7:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Opinion: Half of investment-grade bonds are only one step away from junk status
Replies: 23
Views: 2402

Re: Opinion: Half of investment-grade bonds are only one step away from junk status

What does the article have to do with VCIT? I don't understand the relationship. Go to Vanguard's page and tell me what percent is in BBB bonds.
by AlohaJoe
Sat Jan 12, 2019 8:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emerging markets cannot be fairly valued and investors are better off elsewhere: Change my mind :)
Replies: 128
Views: 7393

Re: Emerging markets cannot be fairly valued and investors are better off elsewhere: Change my mind :)

Nicolas Perrault wrote:
Sat Jan 12, 2019 2:46 pm
I had the chance to visit Fiji about ten years ago.
What does Fiji have to do with emerging markets? Fiji isn't an emerging market.

I'm confused about the relevance of your anecdote.
by AlohaJoe
Fri Jan 11, 2019 3:33 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: International debate again!!
Replies: 16
Views: 1134

Re: International debate again!!

Vanguard has just upped it's recommendation to 40% International now: https://www.yahoo.com/amphtml/finance/news/vanguard-recommends-investors-increase-non-013404803.html i'm right now at 20% but just wondering if anyone is taking this advice seriously. Aren't there arguments against this? Since wh...
by AlohaJoe
Thu Jan 10, 2019 9:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: PG&E Bonds
Replies: 49
Views: 5050

Re: PG&E Bonds

Indexes don't get updated daily, though. I think most are "reconstituted" quarterly.
by AlohaJoe
Wed Jan 09, 2019 11:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Would your FIRE plan work had your journey started 1965?
Replies: 66
Views: 4426

Re: Would your FIRE plan work had your journey started 1965?

The stock market went down over 70% between 1965 and 1982 , following a 15-year bull market. Now we are standing at the start of another bear market. What if the history repeats itself? A 4% "safe" withdrawl rate is surely not safe... If my memory serves me, interest rates were extremely high back ...
by AlohaJoe
Wed Jan 09, 2019 10:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Does The Bucket Approach Destroy Wealth?
Replies: 56
Views: 5773

Re: Larry Swedroe: Does The Bucket Approach Destroy Wealth?

Would love to see a more detailed analysis with a wider variety of approaches. I don't understand the rules for your bucket strategy. When do you refill Bucket 1? When do you refill Bucket 2? How do you insure that equities remains at 40-60% with the refilling rules you've chosen? Buckets are refil...
by AlohaJoe
Wed Jan 09, 2019 10:40 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why isn't an AA of 75/25 with a SWR 3.75% the standard??
Replies: 62
Views: 6798

Re: Why isn't an AA of 75/25 with a SWR 3.75% the standard??

It is worth keeping in mind that even as high as 4%, the most likely outcome is that you will die with more than you started. If you go down to 3%, it is almost guaranteed. The way you've phrased this isn't quite true (though I know what you meant) simply because you are quite likely to die :). For...
by AlohaJoe
Wed Jan 09, 2019 7:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Does The Bucket Approach Destroy Wealth?
Replies: 56
Views: 5773

Re: Larry Swedroe: Does The Bucket Approach Destroy Wealth?

Who has done a study explicitly considering my risk of dying before I run out of money? Lots and lots of people have done the study. Here is one recent example called "Rich, Broke, Dead". Here's an simulation showing some retiring early (at age 55) but using 4% withdrawal (what many people would co...
by AlohaJoe
Wed Jan 09, 2019 6:42 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Investing as an Expatriate
Replies: 11
Views: 499

Re: Investing as an Expatriate

I will be paid by the Australian office in AUD. However, I know that my 401k contributions will be taken out state side so that will remain the same. Huh? So you'll still be on the US payroll? You have to have US source income to do that, so you have to be on the payroll of a US company, I thought?...
by AlohaJoe
Tue Jan 08, 2019 9:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Does The Bucket Approach Destroy Wealth?
Replies: 56
Views: 5773

Re: Larry Swedroe: Does The Bucket Approach Destroy Wealth?

WoodSpinner wrote:
Tue Jan 08, 2019 7:42 pm
Would love to see a more detailed analysis with a wider variety of approaches.
I don't understand the rules for your bucket strategy. When do you refill Bucket 1? When do you refill Bucket 2? How do you insure that equities remains at 40-60% with the refilling rules you've chosen?
by AlohaJoe
Tue Jan 08, 2019 9:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Does The Bucket Approach Destroy Wealth?
Replies: 56
Views: 5773

Re: Larry Swedroe: Does The Bucket Approach Destroy Wealth?

However, Estrada's 21 countries have to include some that got clobbered in World War II, experienced currency devaluation, and so forth. [...] I can't read Estrada's papers at work, but I will certainly look into them when I get home. It doesn't sound crazy to me. All of things you listed are not g...
by AlohaJoe
Tue Jan 08, 2019 8:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why isn't an AA of 75/25 with a SWR 3.75% the standard??
Replies: 62
Views: 6798

Re: Why isn't an AA of 75/25 with a SWR 3.75% the standard??

Looking at the information provided from the Early Retirement Now forum it would seem like Bogleheads would all be singing the praises of a 3.75% SWR with a 75/25 AA. But I rarely hear it mentioned. The success rates seem to be excellent, so what's the concerns around using this? So before I take t...
by AlohaJoe
Mon Jan 07, 2019 3:19 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Would your FIRE plan work had your journey started 1965?
Replies: 66
Views: 4426

Re: Would your FIRE plan work had your journey started 1965?

which paper is that and i'd be curious to see what the strategy was to survive a period that took 30 years to recover.. the Dow regained it's 1965 peak only in 1995!!! "Determining Withdrawal Rates Using Historical Data" by Bill Bengen. There's no "strategy" needed. I think you don't understand how...
by AlohaJoe
Mon Jan 07, 2019 2:45 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Would your FIRE plan work had your journey started 1965?
Replies: 66
Views: 4426

Re: Would your FIRE plan work had your journey started 1965?

The stock market went down over 70% between 1965 and 1982 , following a 15-year bull market. Now we are standing at the start of another bear market. What if the history repeats itself? A 4% "safe" withdrawl rate is surely not safe... You're not the first person to realise that the 1960s & 1970s we...
by AlohaJoe
Mon Jan 07, 2019 2:36 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: International Health Plan
Replies: 3
Views: 342

Re: International Health Plan

then will move to Australia for a year, possibly two years. There's not enough information here to answer. Will you be covered by Medicare (the Australian one, not the US one)? Are you going on 482, 485, 600, 601, 417, or 462 visa? Anyway, you don't need an "international health plan", you need an ...
by AlohaJoe
Mon Jan 07, 2019 12:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Where does the 20% downpayment rule come from?
Replies: 3
Views: 823

Re: Where does the 20% downpayment rule come from?

The Housing Act of 1934 created the Federal Housing Administration which "invented" the 30-year, fixed-rate, 20% downpayment mortgage. Before that, mortgages were variable rate, usually required at least 30% down, and were rarely more than 5-years or so in length, requiring a balloon payment at the ...
by AlohaJoe
Sun Jan 06, 2019 11:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How do you view a savings surplus in retirement?
Replies: 117
Views: 5957

Re: How do you view a savings surplus in retirement?

So nobody would view it as a lump sum spendable pool of money to be dipped into at will? I wouldn't view it as a lump sum, no. My spending plan (I am retired) is a variable one, so an extra 25% in my portfolio would result in me being able to spend quite a bit more each year. (I'm not one of those ...
by AlohaJoe
Sun Jan 06, 2019 9:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Modeling "withdrawing just income generated"
Replies: 30
Views: 2372

Re: Modeling "withdrawing just income generated"

Figure 5 is also, as you probably expected, both fascinating and surprising to me. I did not expect that there to be such wide variability in real spending! That's obviously an important number for someone considering this strategy, as it clearly matters whether the money you receive each month is ...
by AlohaJoe
Sun Jan 06, 2019 8:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Modeling "withdrawing just income generated"
Replies: 30
Views: 2372

Re: Modeling "withdrawing just income generated"

Figure 5 is also, as you probably expected, both fascinating and surprising to me. I did not expect that there to be such wide variability in real spending! That's obviously an important number for someone considering this strategy, as it clearly matters whether the money you receive each month is ...
by AlohaJoe
Sun Jan 06, 2019 5:48 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Low risk, fixed 5% return too good to be true?
Replies: 27
Views: 3833

Re: Low risk, fixed 5% return too good to be true?

Seems to be VERY low risk for a fixed 5%. Why do you think this is low risk? You are buying an unrated baby bond from a single tiny, unknown bank that makes money by doing inventory-based lending to small & medium businesses. Why do you think that buying a bond from a single company -- any company ...
by AlohaJoe
Sat Jan 05, 2019 11:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Modeling "withdrawing just income generated"
Replies: 30
Views: 2372

Re: Modeling "withdrawing just income generated"

I'm interested in modeling questions like "What happens if I limit distributions to the income the portfolio generates, and invest in X% total stock market and Y% total bond market? What is the range of values I can expect to receive in terms of income each year, and final amount of capital at the ...
by AlohaJoe
Sat Jan 05, 2019 1:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Sky Isn’t Falling
Replies: 17
Views: 2071

Re: Larry Swedroe: Sky Isn’t Falling

Isn't the idea of "panic selling" really a myth? Didn't Vanguard report that the 401(k) plans that they managed are steady as a rock and only low single digit percentages of client make any changes? I'd like to have some hard facts that retail investors really do any of this bad stuff that everyone...
by AlohaJoe
Sat Jan 05, 2019 6:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: US Stock Market Returns in the 21st Century
Replies: 92
Views: 4368

Re: US Stock Market Returns in the 21st Century

Here's the 'real' inflation adjusted annualized total returns from each year (assuming bought at the start of the year and sold at the start of 2019) [...snip...] (Average 5.82%) If I had any idea how to do it I would repeat the exercise for Japanese stocks so we could finally put that boogeyman to...
by AlohaJoe
Sat Jan 05, 2019 2:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: US Stock Market Returns in the 21st Century
Replies: 92
Views: 4368

Re: US Stock Market Returns in the 21st Century

For the Shiller PE (CAPE10) naysayers, the 1/1/2000 value was 43.77 ( http://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe/table ), 1/CAPE10 would have estimated a 2.28% real return for the S&P 500. The S&P actually yielded a 2.94% real return for that period according to Portfolio Visualizer. Yes, I know those are tw...
by AlohaJoe
Sat Jan 05, 2019 2:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: US Stock Market Returns in the 21st Century
Replies: 92
Views: 4368

Re: US Stock Market Returns in the 21st Century

PS - The inflation data for December 2018 is not in yet and was extrapolated from the November CPI data by the above tool. I would expect the one month CPI extrapolation error to be very small and have a negligible impact on the 19 year average real returns. I was struck by how low -- and stable --...
by AlohaJoe
Fri Jan 04, 2019 7:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is there a way to construct a decent three asset portfolio before efficient market exchagnes? (Investment theory)
Replies: 24
Views: 1010

Re: Is there a way to construct a decent three asset portfolio before efficient market exchagnes? (Investment theory)

A boglehead portfolio is really just a simplification if dividing your investments between business, international business, and low risk currency lending, simplified and made more economical through the use of index funds. Since investing 100% in the S&P 500 is a Boglehead portfolio and investing ...
by AlohaJoe
Fri Jan 04, 2019 9:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Invesco to close two micro cap ETFs
Replies: 20
Views: 1330

Re: Invesco to close two micro cap ETFs

One reason to buy ETFs from a larger ETF provider like iShares or Vanguard. iShares and Vanguard also have shut down funds this year. I think it is more about pursuing niche strategies. Vanguard merged similar active funds. That doesn't carry the same potential tax consequences as shutting down an ...
by AlohaJoe
Thu Jan 03, 2019 6:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is there a way to construct a decent three asset portfolio before efficient market exchagnes? (Investment theory)
Replies: 24
Views: 1010

Re: Is there a way to construct a decent three asset portfolio before efficient market exchagnes? (Investment theory)

If we were in a society before stock exchanges and bond exchanges or boards, how would one construct a three asset portfolio similar to the bogleheads portfolio? Just because there's no stock exchange doesn't mean there's no partial ownership of companies. The London Stock Exchange was founded in 1...
by AlohaJoe
Wed Jan 02, 2019 11:58 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Loan to son for college with no interest
Replies: 39
Views: 3708

Re: Loan to son for college with no interest

So does this imply that any parent paying for their kid's school actually owes gift tax if it's over the annual gift tax exclusion? Or is it simply because the intent here is that the money is a loan? Good point, I may have misunderstood what the plan was. If they are paying 50% and loaning 50% tha...
by AlohaJoe
Wed Jan 02, 2019 10:18 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Loan to son for college with no interest
Replies: 39
Views: 3708

Re: Loan to son for college with no interest

It breaks into three parts: He is giving him a gift of 50% and needs to declare that annually on Form 709 since $75,000 * 50% = $37,500 is above the annual gift tax exclusion. He is giving him a gift by not charging interest. The value of the gift is the the difference between the IRS mandated Appli...