Search found 3434 matches

by AlohaJoe
Mon Jul 23, 2018 2:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Journal article on stocks in retirement accounts / bonds in taxable
Replies: 1
Views: 318

Re: Journal article on stocks in retirement accounts / bonds in taxable

I'm interested if anyone has a critique of the article, given the common advice on this board of holding bonds in retirement accounts The article seems mostly fine to me. As you've discovered with common advice, it isn't always correct, especially when it is offered with no empirical explanations a...
by AlohaJoe
Mon Jul 23, 2018 1:44 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Engineers come in.
Replies: 18
Views: 997

Re: Engineers come in.

Keepcalm wrote:
Mon Jul 23, 2018 1:32 am
He was under the impression that if he was wired to be an engineer then hopping from lecture to lecture without any effort back home on his part would work fine.
What a ridiculous thing to believe.
by AlohaJoe
Sun Jul 22, 2018 9:37 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Weekly reading to increase knowledge on business / tech
Replies: 10
Views: 714

Re: Weekly reading to increase knowledge on business / tech

I question whether there's any value in increasing knowledge about business & tech. But since that's the goal you've set yourself: I think that longform reads are going to be a better place to put your 30 minutes of reading a day instead of more short-form, primarily knee-jerk reaction content. And ...
by AlohaJoe
Sun Jul 22, 2018 8:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can someone explain how hedging works
Replies: 12
Views: 539

Re: Can someone explain how hedging works

How does hedging work? After you bought your house, you had to go buy some insurance that says "if the house burns down, we will give you $200,000". That's a hedge. One of my friends bet $100 that Croatia would win the World Cup. He also bet $100 that France would win the World Cup. That's a also h...
by AlohaJoe
Sun Jul 22, 2018 8:17 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Giving money to adult kids
Replies: 13
Views: 1217

Re: Giving money to adult kids

Once you die, they will inherit all that money, right? You won't be around to monitor a joint checking account or have them clear spending with you first. If you don't trust them to spend the money wisely now, what is your plan for after you are gone? It seems like you should have the same system no...
by AlohaJoe
Sun Jul 22, 2018 7:59 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Requesting restitution from airline for delayed recovery baggage
Replies: 12
Views: 650

Re: Requesting restitution from airline for delayed recovery baggage

I was wondering apart from the concrete expenses for this, if the airline would be inclined if he wrote a letter as a business traveler and politely requested miles or voucher, they would be inclined to honor. Bogleheads is a forum about investing so may not be the best place to ask. I would find a...
by AlohaJoe
Sun Jul 22, 2018 7:50 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Inflation Adjusting for Standard of Living Increases
Replies: 2
Views: 237

Re: Inflation Adjusting for Standard of Living Increases

But I'm wondering about adjustment for productivity and standard of living. Does this raw CPI "then vs now" number take that all into account? Not really, no it doesn't. Put another way, am I missing something beyond CPI when comparing the value of $1 from a very long time ago versus today. Yes, yo...
by AlohaJoe
Sun Jul 22, 2018 7:21 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Requesting restitution from airline for delayed recovery baggage
Replies: 12
Views: 650

Re: Requesting restitution from airline for delayed recovery baggage

There are federal laws and DOT guidelines about it. There are dozens of blogs, newspaper articles, and forums about it. I'd start by using Google and then doing what the information I found via Google says to do. When you Googled your question, what answers did you find? Another hurdle is the time l...
by AlohaJoe
Sat Jul 21, 2018 10:51 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Buy house for retired mother?
Replies: 45
Views: 2630

Re: Buy house for retired mother

There may be state, federal, or local laws about charging family members below market rents. Have you researched them? Unless the OP was trying to claim a business loss resulting from below market rent to family members, I've never heard of any laws that would prohibit this. But state and especiall...
by AlohaJoe
Sat Jul 21, 2018 8:48 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Buy house for retired mother?
Replies: 45
Views: 2630

Re: Buy house for retired mother

There may be state, federal, or local laws about charging family members below market rents. Have you researched them?
by AlohaJoe
Sat Jul 21, 2018 9:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Value Stocks and Margin Loans as Inflation Hedges
Replies: 8
Views: 506

Re: Value Stocks and Margin Loans as Inflation Hedges

Park wrote:
Sat Jul 21, 2018 9:37 am
But margin loans in a taxable account might help an inflationary recession. And because it's a recession, valuations would less likely to be on the high side.
This seems like a lot of hand waving. Why don't you at least do a backtest and share with us the results instead of saying "might"?
by AlohaJoe
Fri Jul 20, 2018 12:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Should I Dump a Pile of Money on Young Son?
Replies: 126
Views: 8665

Re: Should I Dump a Pile of Money on Young Son?

I would do it. You know your kid better than a bunch of pessimists on Bogleheads. He's going to get it, and a lot more, eventually. Why not give him some when it will do some good? He's not a child anymore.
by AlohaJoe
Thu Jul 19, 2018 10:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Take Risk on Equity Side?
Replies: 78
Views: 5022

Re: Why Take Risk on Equity Side?

Using Portfolio Visualizer, you can see (for the one dataset of returns from 1970 mind you) that there's an issue of the assets not mixing quite as well in terms of risk-adjusted return. 50% TSM/50% Int. Treasuries: 9.90% CAGR | 0.66 Sharpe Ratio | 21% Max Drawdown 50% TSM/50% HY Corp Bonds: 10.15%...
by AlohaJoe
Thu Jul 19, 2018 8:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Take Risk on Equity Side?
Replies: 78
Views: 5022

Re: Why Take Risk on Equity Side?

Another example of this is Emerging Markets Equities versus Emerging Markets Bonds. Or reinsurance :twisted:

I think the saying "take your risk on the equity side" doesn't really mean much and feels like a hold over from simplistic CAPM analysis where there are only two things to invest in.
by AlohaJoe
Thu Jul 19, 2018 7:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to calculate daily return for a portfolio of more than one stock?
Replies: 5
Views: 344

Re: How to calculate daily return for a portfolio of more than one stock?

You should do what livesoft suggests. It is simple, easy, clear, and obvious. Also talking about "owning the same number of shares" is wrong; number shares are meaningless. The only thing that matter is how much money you have. However, if someone really wanted to do it THE HARD WAY then it is just ...
by AlohaJoe
Thu Jul 19, 2018 4:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market timing benefit? Or just pure luck?
Replies: 15
Views: 2072

Re: Market timing benefit? Or just pure luck?

The outperformance of strategy (5) is still observed in other time periods, though. Take the time period from 1970 to 2007 as an example, It doesn't really make sense to say "the outperformance is observed" when you're talking about a random process. It can't outperform 100% of the time because you...
by AlohaJoe
Tue Jul 17, 2018 10:57 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Water leaking from skylight window - Roofer cannot find cause!
Replies: 10
Views: 628

Re: Water leaking from skylight window - Roofer cannot find cause!

You've only had one roofer look at it and give you a quote. And you didn't like his answer.

Is there some reason you're not calling another roofer instead of posting on the internet?
by AlohaJoe
Tue Jul 17, 2018 10:12 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why is my bond fund going up with interest rates?
Replies: 16
Views: 1524

Re: Why is my bond fund going up with interest rates?

The Federal Reserve doesn't have any power to affect the interest rates on any of the bonds in your portfolio. The interest rates on your bonds did not go up. Here's some reading that might help: http://aswathdamodaran.blogspot.com/2015/09/the-fed-interest-rates-and-stock-prices.html or if you pref...
by AlohaJoe
Tue Jul 17, 2018 8:56 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why is my bond fund going up with interest rates?
Replies: 16
Views: 1524

Re: Why is my bond fund going up with interest rates?

InvestInLife wrote:
Tue Jul 17, 2018 8:49 am
So there's a delay as federal interest rates trickle down to create a new environment at the private lending level?
No, there's no trickle down. The Federal Reserve doesn't set the rates in any meaningful way for the bonds you own; the market does.
by AlohaJoe
Tue Jul 17, 2018 8:37 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why is my bond fund going up with interest rates?
Replies: 16
Views: 1524

Re: Why is my bond fund going up with interest rates?

I am invested in municipal bond fund fmotx. In the last few months the Fed has raised interest rates, yet the bond fund is on a slow increase in value. I am prepared for bond funds to drop for a while, and have delayed investing more capital for this reason. I know some of the bonds are corporate, ...
by AlohaJoe
Tue Jul 17, 2018 7:09 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Why own a bed?
Replies: 140
Views: 9102

Re: Why own a bed?

For heaven's sake, you spend at least one third of your life in bed and a good raised bed with solid support is among the best investments to improve your quality of life. Please treat your body well. The Japanese and other Asians sleep with a mattress on the floor, even those who are wealthy. Thei...
by AlohaJoe
Tue Jul 17, 2018 6:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is leveraging property good but leveraging stocks bad?
Replies: 174
Views: 11250

Re: Why is leveraging property good but leveraging stocks bad?

michaeljc70 wrote:
Tue Jul 17, 2018 5:55 am
What data are you using? What level do you consider a crash?
I was looking at: http://www.multpl.com/case-shiller-home ... -adjusted/
by AlohaJoe
Tue Jul 17, 2018 2:17 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Why own a bed?
Replies: 140
Views: 9102

Re: Why own a bed?

For heaven's sake, you spend at least one third of your life in bed and a good raised bed with solid support is among the best investments to improve your quality of life. Please treat your body well. The Japanese and other Asians sleep with a mattress on the floor, even those who are wealthy. Thei...
by AlohaJoe
Tue Jul 17, 2018 1:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is leveraging property good but leveraging stocks bad?
Replies: 174
Views: 11250

Re: Why is leveraging property good but leveraging stocks bad?

I would say the additional benefits of a mortgage is that as long as you can service the loan, no matter the price of your property, at least it provides you with shelter. So the worst case is that you underperform relative to the market but hopefully it doesn't leave you destitute. Obviously, the ...
by AlohaJoe
Mon Jul 16, 2018 10:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: GMO 7 year forecasts are worse than a toss of a coin
Replies: 42
Views: 3489

Re: GMO 7 year forecasts are worse than a toss of a coin

And yet we still have threads like "what return do you expect for the next 10 years" or "Bogle predicts x%" blah blah blah. I don't disagree yet....all GMO has really done is to take the very common "I'm worried about valuations" and "this the longest bull market EV-AR and there will be a correctio...
by AlohaJoe
Mon Jul 16, 2018 9:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is leveraging property good but leveraging stocks bad?
Replies: 174
Views: 11250

Re: Why is leveraging property good but leveraging stocks bad?

JBTX wrote:
Sun Jul 15, 2018 11:58 pm
Margin loans are typically higher than mortgage rates plus you have margin calls.
My margin loan rate is currently 3.1%. What's your mortgage rate? I thought mortgages were currently at 4.6% or so?
by AlohaJoe
Mon Jul 16, 2018 9:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is leveraging property good but leveraging stocks bad?
Replies: 174
Views: 11250

Re: Why is leveraging property good but leveraging stocks bad?

At least with regard to margin loans, 2x to 4x leverage is pretty much the regulatory maximum amount of leverage brokers are allowed to provide under Regulation T with initial margin requirements of 50% and maintenance margin requirements of 25%.[/quote[ I can borrow 5.1x margin from my broker (equ...
by AlohaJoe
Mon Jul 16, 2018 9:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is leveraging property good but leveraging stocks bad?
Replies: 174
Views: 11250

Re: Why is leveraging property good but leveraging stocks bad?

Until recently, home values had never fallen nationally. You mean other than in the national housing crashes of 1890, 1915, 1942, 1978, and 1987? Housing prices didn't reach their 1915 levels again until 1945. 30 years just to break even. Housing prices didn't reach their 1890 levels again until 20...
by AlohaJoe
Mon Jul 16, 2018 9:35 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: A different take on retirement income: time segmentation
Replies: 169
Views: 9973

Re: A different take on retirement income: time segmentation

Walkure wrote:
Mon Jul 16, 2018 9:14 am
I think the cross-sectional sample makes it a lot harder to draw any sort of "spending reduction" conclusion from the data.
Longitudinal samples show the same pattern and support the results from cross-sectional samples.
by AlohaJoe
Mon Jul 16, 2018 8:15 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Duration of Sequence of Return risk for long retirements
Replies: 47
Views: 3080

Re: Duration of Sequence of Return risk for long retirements

I'll have to look into Kitces's post more but when I looked at I got a pretty different answer... https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/800/1*gqzgl1DTuI1p_KBaPmRjUw.png The peak is around year 15 but years 7-17 is pretty high. You aren't really safe until past year 20, I'd say. So....I'd say it never ...
by AlohaJoe
Mon Jul 16, 2018 8:08 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Does transferring US ETFs to a foreign custodian create tax problems?
Replies: 1
Views: 106

Re: Does transferring US ETFs to a foreign custodian create tax problems?

Would doing so create tax complications if I remain a resident of the US? No. Would there be new reporting obligations (e.g. FBAR)? Yes. Would it somehow change the character/source of the dividend income, creating different tax obligations in the US (and possibly in the other country)? It depends ...
by AlohaJoe
Mon Jul 16, 2018 8:05 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: A different take on retirement income: time segmentation
Replies: 169
Views: 9973

Re: A different take on retirement income: time segmentation

How much of this is because they spent much of their modest nest eggs early on, unwisely perhaps, and now don't really have enough remaining to spend more? [...] I know we have examples of both cases above, but I suspect that, in the general public, retirees who run low on money are more common. Wh...
by AlohaJoe
Mon Jul 16, 2018 6:54 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Wire transfers from internet banks (CapOne 360)
Replies: 5
Views: 419

Re: Wire transfers from internet banks (CapOne 360)

sunny_socal wrote:
Mon Jul 16, 2018 6:14 am
I googled for the CapOne wire transfer details but couldn't find it. Nothing on their website either.
What did they say when you called their 24 hour customer support?
by AlohaJoe
Mon Jul 16, 2018 2:07 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: A different take on retirement income: time segmentation
Replies: 169
Views: 9973

Re: A different take on retirement income: time segmentation

Potentially combining these two approaches may offset some of the disadvantages of the common withdrawal methods. The basic gist of what I propose is this: split retirees' portfolio into two, one for essential spending (ES portfolio) and another for discretionary spending (DS portfolio). Then, appl...
by AlohaJoe
Sun Jul 15, 2018 10:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: U.S. expat starting to invest
Replies: 7
Views: 645

Re: U.S. expat starting to invest

Sure, the plan seems fine. As for whether you can retire? Who knows. You didn't tell us anything about your expenses. If you spend $1,000 a year, then probably yes. If you spend $60,000 a year, then probably no. It depends on whether you actually get that inheritance. Whether we see a massive stock ...
by AlohaJoe
Sun Jul 15, 2018 10:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any source for: "If markets fall X%, a X/X portfolio will fall X%?
Replies: 10
Views: 807

Re: Any source for: "If markets fall X%, a X/X portfolio will fall X%?

Multiplication.

If stocks fall 20% and stocks make up 75% of your portfolio then your portfolio will fall .2 * .75 = .15 = 15%
by AlohaJoe
Sun Jul 15, 2018 1:07 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Would you trade experiences in your youth for early retirement
Replies: 81
Views: 5174

Re: Would you trade experiences in your youth for early retirement

Interesting question. All is relative to where one sits in the journey, looking forward or looking back, and how far. Looking back as a senior with poor financial prospects in retirement, experiences would lose over better finances. Looking back as an early retired senior that has charted a solid f...
by AlohaJoe
Sun Jul 15, 2018 12:17 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Asset Allocation Adjusted with Annual Expense Multiple?
Replies: 2
Views: 322

Re: Asset Allocation Adjusted with Annual Expense Multiple?

This formula could help a lot with sequence of returns risk since you would be guaranteed to have a less aggressive portfolio as you get closer to your retirement/FI date. What does everyone think? It could help a lot? Or it does help a lot? Where can I read about the data, testing, charts, etc?
by AlohaJoe
Fri Jul 13, 2018 10:51 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Early retirement
Replies: 145
Views: 13338

Re: Early retirement

I retired early. I've had some very interesting interactions with people when they find out I've done so. Some are socially awkward, some rude, some confused and other bizarre reactions. Has anyone else experienced what I have? Nope. I mean, I expect that when you engage in a lifestyle that some sm...
by AlohaJoe
Fri Jul 13, 2018 10:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bucket Portfolio article by Christine Benz
Replies: 85
Views: 6320

Re: Bucket Portfolio article by Christine Benz

Are there actually bucket advocates who say the asset allocation should be fixed and the buckets refilled every year regardless of market conditions? I'll refer you to the excellent article by Kitces linked to in this post . Sure but in that post Kitces is creating a bit of a strawman, in that he's...
by AlohaJoe
Fri Jul 13, 2018 9:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bucket Portfolio article by Christine Benz
Replies: 85
Views: 6320

Re: Bucket Portfolio article by Christine Benz

Only when you use something like a free-floating AA bucket model can the bucket strategy yield different results than a more conventional fixed or glidepath AA. I mean....yes? All bucket strategies assume free floating asset allocation, don't they? They don't call it out and they don't ever bother ...
by AlohaJoe
Fri Jul 13, 2018 9:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What's your *real* asset allocation?
Replies: 30
Views: 3070

Re: What's your *real* asset allocation?

I only include liquid assets. Assets that can be converted to cash within one business day. I can't eat my house. I need it to keep the rain out. You can't convert any Vanguard mutual fund to cash within one business day. You can't convert any stock or ETF to cash within one business day. Sure I ca...
by AlohaJoe
Fri Jul 13, 2018 8:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Saving 20% of paycheck isn't enough
Replies: 112
Views: 13183

Re: Saving 20% of paycheck isn't enough

I feel that 10-20% savings is simply not enough and should be aimed more at 40% to achieve an early retirement goal. Is someone arguing with you about this? You've set up massive strawman that no one is world actually supports. "If you save 10% you can retire early." Who says that? No one. :oops: O...
by AlohaJoe
Thu Jul 12, 2018 8:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Yield Curve Inversions — Any Benefit from Market Timing?
Replies: 16
Views: 935

Re: Yield Curve Inversions — Any Benefit from Market Timing?

I've yet to see a market timing scheme that outperformed consistently over long periods. You had seen it. It is right in front of you. It is a fixed AA with buy, holds, and rebalancing. With a fixed AA and rebalancing, you always "buy low and sell high". It is the best market timing tool by not tim...
by AlohaJoe
Thu Jul 12, 2018 8:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Yield Curve Inversions — Any Benefit from Market Timing?
Replies: 16
Views: 935

Re: Yield Curve Inversions — Any Benefit to Market Timing?

...but if you really wanted to try again with monthly Treasury data you can look at https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1LBRAy1SCCAr8YkjJqGNrTpyNnDIOGmeowTXrn9vdXXs/edit#gid=2025919577 Under the "Monthly raw data" tab and use the "Barclays 1 5" column. That's the total return data from the Bloom...
by AlohaJoe
Thu Jul 12, 2018 8:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Yield Curve Inversions — Any Benefit from Market Timing?
Replies: 16
Views: 935

Re: Yield Curve Inversions — Any Benefit from Market Timing?

I've yet to see a market timing scheme that outperformed consistently over long periods. You had seen it. It is right in front of you. It is a fixed AA with buy, holds, and rebalancing. With a fixed AA and rebalancing, you always "buy low and sell high". It is the best market timing tool by not tim...
by AlohaJoe
Thu Jul 12, 2018 7:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What's your *real* asset allocation?
Replies: 30
Views: 3070

Re: What's your *real* asset allocation?

jebmke wrote:
Thu Jul 12, 2018 5:29 pm
I only include liquid assets. Assets that can be converted to cash within one business day. I can't eat my house. I need it to keep the rain out.
You can't convert any Vanguard mutual fund to cash within one business day. You can't convert any stock or ETF to cash within one business day.
by AlohaJoe
Thu Jul 12, 2018 7:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Yield Curve Inversions — Any Benefit from Market Timing?
Replies: 16
Views: 935

Re: Yield Curve Inversions — Any Benefit to Market Timing?

One factor you could look at is the duration of the bonds you switch to such as intermediate term treasuries. Possibly. Unfortunately, I don't have monthly total return data (price change plus yield) for, say, 5-year Treasuries. Also, I'm not entirely convinced it would make a great deal of differe...
by AlohaJoe
Thu Jul 12, 2018 7:51 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Anyone take naps at work?
Replies: 93
Views: 5367

Re: Anyone take naps at work?

JoeRetire wrote:
Thu Jul 12, 2018 6:07 am
AlohaJoe wrote:
Wed Jul 11, 2018 8:38 pm
The lights in the office were turned off from 12-1.
Where was this? What kind of office?
Open plan offices. 20-200 people. In Asia.
by AlohaJoe
Wed Jul 11, 2018 8:38 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Anyone take naps at work?
Replies: 93
Views: 5367

Re: Anyone take naps at work?

Everyone I worked with in my last two jobs took a nap at work. Many people kept pillows at work. The lights in the office were turned off from 12-1. Most people would just put their head down at their desk. Some would lay down under their desk. Not everyone would take a nap every day. If you were on...