Search found 3036 matches

by AlohaJoe
Sun Apr 22, 2018 8:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Individual bonds versus bond funds.
Replies: 10
Views: 562

Re: Individual bonds versus bond funds.

Just curious if anyone is in individual bonds rather than bond funds as many financial planners favor them over funds. The fact that they have a set maturity date and if kept till that date the holder gets all of investment back plus interest. There are bond funds with a set maturity date. Can you ...
by AlohaJoe
Sun Apr 22, 2018 7:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Individual bonds versus bond funds.
Replies: 10
Views: 562

Re: Individual bonds versus bond funds.

dan1953 wrote:
Sun Apr 22, 2018 5:36 pm
Just curious if anyone is in individual bonds rather than bond funds as many financial planners favor them over funds.
The fact that they have a set maturity date and if kept till that date the holder gets all of investment back plus interest.
There are bond funds with a set maturity date.
by AlohaJoe
Sun Apr 22, 2018 1:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Limits of Modern Portfolio Theory - Do Investors Understand What They Own?
Replies: 15
Views: 1534

Re: The Limits of Modern Portfolio Theory - Do Investors Understand What They Own?

It is an intriguing idea but I'm not convinced. Did investors understand what they owned when they bought a mutual fund like Magellan? Did investors understand what they owned when they paid into a pension fund? Did investors understand what they owned when they bought a conglomerates like GE in the...
by AlohaJoe
Sun Apr 22, 2018 1:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Boglehead Philosophy Open To Change?
Replies: 114
Views: 5346

Re: Boglehead Philosophy Open To Change?

What is "the Boglehead philosophy" and which parts of it do you think might change in the next 5 or 10 years? Here's the Boglehead Philosophy ™. 1. Develop a workable plan. 2. Invest early and often. 3. Never bear too much or too little risk. 4. Diversify. 5. Never try to time the market. 6. Use ind...
by AlohaJoe
Sun Apr 22, 2018 1:33 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: AAA? What to do in car emergencies?
Replies: 48
Views: 2075

Re: AAA? What to do in car emergencies?

There are also flat rate (as opposed to subscription) services like urgent.ly roadside assistance https://www.geturgently.com/urgently-ro ... e-services
by AlohaJoe
Sat Apr 21, 2018 9:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emerging Markets - Extending historical returns
Replies: 20
Views: 2592

Re: Emerging Markets - Extending historical returns

I would actually vote against it. [..] I am a little hesitant too, this is why I wanted to have such open discussion. Your points basically elaborate on the list of 'cons' I listed. But you view them as conveying more weight than the other posters so far. I can understand. This being said, one coul...
by AlohaJoe
Sat Apr 21, 2018 9:30 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Best Way to Decline an International Job Assignment
Replies: 23
Views: 1512

Re: Best Way to Decline an International Job Assignment

RollTide31457 wrote:
Sat Apr 21, 2018 9:16 am
Any advice on how to tactfully decline an international job assignment?
Say no and tell them why.
by AlohaJoe
Sat Apr 21, 2018 9:24 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Lending Club Investing
Replies: 26
Views: 2058

Re: Lending Club Investing

Wezzley77 wrote:
Fri Apr 20, 2018 8:56 pm
Great responses. I guess since we on the topic, is there anything else such as this that people invest in that is away from the market. Something Similar to LC or any other options?
Crowdfunded real estate has seemingly taken the "new hotness" title.
by AlohaJoe
Sat Apr 21, 2018 2:35 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Bose quiet comfort noise cancelling headphones
Replies: 10
Views: 1402

Re: Bose quiet comfort noise cancelling headphones

mouses wrote:
Fri Apr 20, 2018 11:28 am
Thanks, I suspect it is the foam surround of the earpads and I need to try replacing that. I do not look forward to messing with a $300 device :-)
Replacing the foam is easy. It cost me $3.60 and took about 60 seconds to swap in the new pads.
by AlohaJoe
Sat Apr 21, 2018 1:53 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Learning about buying a home for complete beginner
Replies: 8
Views: 841

Re: Learning about buying a home for complete beginner

What is a good resource for learning about buying a home if you are a complete beginner. Go to Amazon. Search for the subject you want to learn more about. See what the top selling books and are read their reviews. Go get one or more of them from the library. This applies for learning about anythin...
by AlohaJoe
Fri Apr 20, 2018 6:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: We crush stock indexes, Yale claims
Replies: 98
Views: 11011

Re: We crush stock indexes, Yale claims

Maybe passive doesn't always beat active? At least for institutional investors. https://www.institutionalinvestor.com/article/b17qpx3nyyqywd/we-crush-stock-indexes,-yale-claims Thanks for the link. Very interesting. I started writing a reply, but it quickly got out of hand and I realized I had way ...
by AlohaJoe
Thu Apr 19, 2018 5:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The portfolio currency-hedging decision
Replies: 4
Views: 308

Re: The portfolio currency-hedging decision

I'm not sure what "currency trailing returns" means. It's Figure 1 on page three. Can you please explain in more detail? Thank you. It is actually "trailing currency returns" (you wrote it slightly backwards). It is just the returns due to currency over the past 3 years or the past 10 years. What a...
by AlohaJoe
Thu Apr 19, 2018 1:04 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Once retired, tools to determine available spend?
Replies: 18
Views: 1773

Re: Once retired, tools to determine available spend?

I think that's the idea. The suggested withdrawal doesn't account for my budget. So it doesn't adjust based on past actual withdrawals. I suppose I could view the 'suggested withdrawal' amounts as an upper bound? Yes, just look at it as the upper bound. I'm pretty sure longinvest isn't going to com...
by AlohaJoe
Wed Apr 18, 2018 11:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emerging Markets - Extending historical returns
Replies: 20
Views: 2592

Re: Emerging Markets - Extending historical returns

I would actually vote against it. I think one of the uses of the Simba spreadsheet is to help people see what kind of returns they could have realistically gotten in the past. That's already a bit tricky when we talk about things like "index returns in 1922" when there weren't even really mutual fun...
by AlohaJoe
Wed Apr 18, 2018 8:52 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Once retired, tools to determine available spend?
Replies: 18
Views: 1773

Re: Once retired, tools to determine available spend?

But once in retirement, is there a tool to determine how much you can spend over the next twelve months, based on your balances at that time? I'm not aware of any tool. I think most probably feel it doesn't warrant a tool. But I'm not sure I see what the problem with the VPW spreadsheet is? What do...
by AlohaJoe
Wed Apr 18, 2018 7:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Theoretical question. What would happen if 100% of investors are buy and hold.
Replies: 19
Views: 2014

Re: Theoretical question. What would happen if 100% of investors are buy and hold.

vyacheslav.lenskyy wrote:
Wed Apr 18, 2018 8:28 am
What would happen if 100% of investors are buying and holding index funds?
Civilization would collapse. There would be world wars. Billion of people would die.

You wouldn't be worried about whether it is profitable or not.
by AlohaJoe
Wed Apr 18, 2018 2:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Your Money Or Your Life
Replies: 49
Views: 6520

Re: Your Money Or Your Life

I thought that was actually a really good article that, in a relatively brief space, covered a lot of ground on FIRE. redefining career & retirement the early proponents of FIRE changes in the investing landscape since those early days the increased exposure to long-term inflation as an early retire...
by AlohaJoe
Tue Apr 17, 2018 11:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "If You Can: How Millennials Can Get Rich Slowly"-- A Gem
Replies: 6
Views: 6378

Re: "If You Can: How Millennials Can Get Rich Slowly"-- A Gem

dantempkin wrote:
Tue Apr 17, 2018 11:43 pm
Is there an audiobook version of If You Can: How Millennials Can Get Rich Slowly?
Does the Amazon.com page for the book list one? That's where I'd normally check.
by AlohaJoe
Tue Apr 17, 2018 7:24 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Foreign Tax Credit - Interactions with other Itemized Deductions
Replies: 2
Views: 340

Re: Foreign Tax Credit - Interactions with other Itemized Deductions

Are there any charities that expats can actually contribute to? if you contribute to Red Cross USA, that isn't a charity in the UK, so you can't deduct it from your UK taxes. If you contribute to Red Cross UK, that isn't a charity in the US, so you can't deduct it from your US taxes. (The IRS says "...
by AlohaJoe
Tue Apr 17, 2018 5:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: CAPE mean reversion: country specific or to the global average?
Replies: 23
Views: 1521

Re: CAPE mean reversion: country specific or to the global average?

"In general, CAPE is not directly comparable across countries or sectors – the first term in equation (4) includes the long-term growth rate of per-share earnings and the book-to-market ratio. Differences in profitability, earnings dilution and accounting rules can induce differences in earnings gro...
by AlohaJoe
Tue Apr 17, 2018 12:12 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How long for irs to pull from checking
Replies: 13
Views: 1512

Re: How long for irs to pull from checking

If I need to pay 40k for my estimated taxes while filing an extension to wait on a K1 for my partnership income, will that money need to be in my checking account tomorrow if I file electronically? I have most of my money in no penalty CDs and need a few days to get it to my checking. I filled out ...
by AlohaJoe
Mon Apr 16, 2018 7:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Book: Living off Your Money, by M. McClung (Prime Harvesting)]
Replies: 417
Views: 78910

Re: [Book: Living off Your Money, by M. McClung (Prime Harvesting)]

I am comparing 'Prime' and 'Alternate Prime' to longinvest's VPW. For now, VPW is my default setting, with the 'age' set at 102 (I will never live that long, unless there are breakthroughs in medicine). My cursory look tells me 'Prime' seems better if you have a bequest motive, and VPW if you do no...
by AlohaJoe
Mon Apr 16, 2018 6:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How accurately can we measure INFLATION?
Replies: 89
Views: 3660

Re: How accurately can we measure INFLATION?

One thing I have never understood. When inflation numbers are presented, they are usually presented with this caveat, "....these numbers strip out food and energy, because of their volatility", or something to that effect. My question is why strip out Food and Energy? Food and Energy are huge parts...
by AlohaJoe
Mon Apr 16, 2018 5:51 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Need Help to FIRE in Thailand
Replies: 28
Views: 3207

Re: Need Help to FIRE in Thailand

My standard advice to those considering retiring in SE Asia: don't cut it too close on spending. Though all the governments in the area have done much better in the past few years, historically inflation has been a bit higher than US/Euro areas. You say you get a inflation-adjusted pension from Sing...
by AlohaJoe
Mon Apr 16, 2018 1:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Angel investor breakfast
Replies: 19
Views: 2203

Re: Angel investor breakfast

if you try to professionalize it as a fund to passive investors, the fund fees will eat up the excess returns. I didn't not understand this. Please elaborate. Not the OP but the way i'd read this: the literature is pretty clear that lots of active mutual funds, hedge funds, etc "beat the index" fai...
by AlohaJoe
Sun Apr 15, 2018 10:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Using Stock/Bond Market Total Valuations to Guide Portfolio Allocations
Replies: 9
Views: 1007

Re: Using Stock/Bond Market Total Valuations to Guide Portfolio Allocations

Does anybody think that the market capitalizations should be used this way to guide a person's personal stock/bond allocations? Sometimes this has been brought up as a disconnect in the usual Boglehead way of thinking. "If market cap is good enough for equities (i.e. the total stock market index fu...
by AlohaJoe
Sun Apr 15, 2018 8:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How accurately can we measure INFLATION?
Replies: 89
Views: 3660

Re: How accurately can we measure INFLATION?

There's a joint effort by Harvard and MIT to measure inflation in different countries using online prices called the billion prices project. This isn't an effort to measure inflation per se: as the name says it just measures prices. All of those prices need to be combined somehow and as far I can t...
by AlohaJoe
Sun Apr 15, 2018 7:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What to do about withdrawal this year if market doesn't go up?
Replies: 32
Views: 2848

Re: What to do about withdrawal this year if market doesn't go up?

first withdrawal from principle Do this. Even if the market went up 10% wouldn't you need to withdraw from principle? I'm a little confused about what the market going up or down has to do with it. If you don't get enough from interest + dividends then you need to make up the shortfall somewhere el...
by AlohaJoe
Sun Apr 15, 2018 7:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How accurately can we measure INFLATION?
Replies: 89
Views: 3660

Re: How accurately can we measure INFLATION?

For investors, measuring inflation is important. It determines: It is worth pointing out that CPI is not "cost of living", so things like SWR studies and calculations of real returns that use CPI are somewhat misleading. Traditionally people think of inflation as "increase in cost of living" so the...
by AlohaJoe
Sun Apr 15, 2018 7:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: We crush stock indexes, Yale claims
Replies: 98
Views: 11011

Re: We crush stock indexes, Yale claims

Much of Yale's holdings are in illiquid assets that rarely trade. The valuation must involve a good deal of estimation. I wonder how reliable their reported returns and performance actually are. That's what I've been saying for years. If there is no market price, then you use a model price. With th...
by AlohaJoe
Sun Apr 15, 2018 6:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: We crush stock indexes, Yale claims
Replies: 98
Views: 11011

Re: We crush stock indexes, Yale claims

I pretty much discounted anything said in the article after reading the first line: "Yale University's endowment has offered a rebuttal to Warren Buffett and other proponents of low-fee, passive investments." Obviously, the author missed the point. If Buffett's argument was that no one could ever b...
by AlohaJoe
Fri Apr 13, 2018 10:32 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: PURE insurance for high net worth families. Has anyone heard of them?
Replies: 3
Views: 804

Re: PURE insurance for high net worth families. Has anyone heard of them?

One of my colleagues mentioned that he uses a company called PURE (Privilege Underwriter's Reciprocal Exchange) for all his insurance needs (auto, home, umbrella). He said they had excellent rates and great customer service as they only cater to a small sector of the population (high net worth). I ...
by AlohaJoe
Fri Apr 13, 2018 10:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is global debt an issue for investors?
Replies: 17
Views: 1053

Re: Is global debt an issue for investors?

How and why are global or domestic debt levels (government debt, priv. corporations, households) factoring into your investment decisions? Especially: Do you perceive rising debt as a risk for a long term recession that might outlive some of us? https://www.newyorker.com/news/john-cassidy/the-reinh...
by AlohaJoe
Fri Apr 13, 2018 9:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bill Bernstein, new podcast
Replies: 56
Views: 5858

Re: Bill Bernstein- Article

The article is by Cullen Roche, not Bernstein. Could you retitle the thread and maybe give a title that hints at the contents? Thanks! Over half the article is a quotation from Bill Bernstein. I assumed the intent was to discuss Roche's additional commentary. If it was just "Bernstein did an interv...
by AlohaJoe
Fri Apr 13, 2018 8:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bill Bernstein, new podcast
Replies: 56
Views: 5858

Re: Bill Bernstein- Article

The article is by Cullen Roche, not Bernstein. Could you retitle the thread and maybe give a title that hints at the contents? Thanks!
by AlohaJoe
Fri Apr 13, 2018 8:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is global debt an issue for investors?
Replies: 17
Views: 1053

Re: Is global debt an issue for investors?

How and why are global or domestic debt levels (government debt, priv. corporations, households) factoring into your investment decisions? Especially: Do you perceive rising debt as a risk for a long term recession that might outlive some of us? https://www.newyorker.com/news/john-cassidy/the-reinh...
by AlohaJoe
Fri Apr 13, 2018 6:50 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Employee IPO windfall - mid 7 figures
Replies: 30
Views: 3400

Re: Employee IPO windfall - mid 7 figures

but what if there was an opportunity for another 2x in the next year, which would be even more life-changing? I used to work with a guy whose wife was a VP at WorldCom. (You can see where this story is going....) They had >$1 million in equity from WorldCom but she believed in the company and its v...
by AlohaJoe
Fri Apr 13, 2018 4:57 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Employee IPO windfall - mid 7 figures
Replies: 30
Views: 3400

Re: Employee IPO windfall - mid 7 figures

Which one would you regret more? Selling it all and missing an increase of 20% next year? Or not selling it all and seeing it drop by 30% next year? Look at the tax cost of at least splitting it into selling 50% now and 50% in January in a new tax year. When I was in a similar situation I opted to D...
by AlohaJoe
Fri Apr 13, 2018 12:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emerging Markets - Extending historical returns
Replies: 20
Views: 2592

Re: Emerging Markets - Extending historical returns

If you're going to extract data from a graph I'd also take a look at the DMS "emerging markets index". I think it was in the 2014 Credit Suisse book. It was 1900-present, so it covers a lot of ground. I seem to recall they made some questionable (but defensible) choices. Emerging markets was any cou...
by AlohaJoe
Thu Apr 12, 2018 9:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Two Centuries of U.S. Stock Market Indexes, 1802-2017
Replies: 47
Views: 3684

Re: Two Centuries of U.S. Stock Market Indexes, 1802-2017

...and if Cowles was selecting the largest stocks by market cap at the time(instead of survivorship bias and arbitrary judgments about erratic pricing), 30 stocks might not be terrible. I think you're mixing up Cowles and Smith&Cole (the latter is who Zweig is talking about). G. William Schwert's p...
by AlohaJoe
Thu Apr 12, 2018 8:37 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Should I join a startup?
Replies: 14
Views: 1372

Re: Should I join a startup?

The other questions are what are the downsides to joining a startup, let's assume this is where I want to grow career-wise and compensation is ok. How do I evaluate the risks of a startup folding? What other risks should I be aware of? Some (possible) downsides to startups. (Obviously these aren't ...
by AlohaJoe
Thu Apr 12, 2018 8:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Two Centuries of U.S. Stock Market Indexes, 1802-2017
Replies: 47
Views: 3684

Re: Two Centuries of U.S. Stock Market Indexes, 1802-2017

That Zweig piece is devastating, Thus the indexes relied on by Prof. Siegel exclude 97% of all the stocks that existed in the earliest years of the U.S. market, Any index that excludes 97% of stocks at the time might charitably be described as historical fiction. The Dow Jones Industrial Average ex...
by AlohaJoe
Thu Apr 12, 2018 8:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Two Centuries of U.S. Stock Market Indexes, 1802-2017
Replies: 47
Views: 3684

Re: Two Centuries of U.S. Stock Market Indexes, 1802-2017

P.S. I don't think "S&P 90" index is right, by the way. I've been trying to unscramble this story for some time but still don't quite have it. A while ago I made an attempt at unscrambling it some About Cowles: https://medium.com/@justusjp/making-of-an-index-the-cowles-commission-f5d083a9b994 About...
by AlohaJoe
Thu Apr 12, 2018 7:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Unimpressive category averages of managed futures, multialternative, market neutral, etc.
Replies: 82
Views: 5063

Re: Unimpressive category averages of managed futures, multialternative, market neutral, etc.

Low correlation? First things first. If your diversifier has less return than a money market mutual fund , it is going to drag down your return so much that it is almost impossible for any low correlation effect to offset it. Doesn't this apply to bonds as well? They are a diversifier with very low...
by AlohaJoe
Thu Apr 12, 2018 7:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why not annuitize most of portfolio?
Replies: 104
Views: 8023

Re: Why not annuitize most of portfolio?

A few posts in this thread have made the claim that SPIAs are massive profit centers for insurance companies and are made to be sold, not bought. I'm not sure how those conclusions were reached. There's a fair amount of research showing it isn't the case. The Money's Worth Ratio, among other empiric...
by AlohaJoe
Thu Apr 12, 2018 2:03 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bond funds in taxable accounts?
Replies: 7
Views: 839

Re: Bond funds in taxable accounts?

Opinions differ. There is no consensus. No matter what you choose, it is unlikely to be the single thing that makes or breaks your retirement. Okay, should I just go with VBTLX or try to pick a better one like Vanguard Tax-Exempt Bond Index ( VTEBX ) You should use your own tax bracket and see what...
by AlohaJoe
Thu Apr 12, 2018 1:55 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Ray Dalio - All-weather - which Vanguard EFTs to invest?
Replies: 20
Views: 2328

Re: Ray Dalio - All-weather - which Vanguard EFTs to invest?

In the spirit of the All Weather strategy and being prepared for any possible economic future, you may want to consider making half of your gold holdings physical gold rather than just "digital gold." This gives you extra insurance against a true disaster in commerce. What do you recommend for 'phy...
by AlohaJoe
Thu Apr 12, 2018 1:49 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bond funds in taxable accounts?
Replies: 7
Views: 839

Re: Bond funds in taxable accounts?

Opinions differ. There is no consensus. No matter what you choose, it is unlikely to be the single thing that makes or breaks your retirement.
by AlohaJoe
Thu Apr 12, 2018 12:50 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How can I Invest 4 million dollars to earn 120k (inflation adjusted) a year for life?
Replies: 84
Views: 13306

Re: How can I Invest 4 million dollars to earn 120k (inflation adjusted) a year for life?

bigred77 wrote:
Wed Apr 11, 2018 9:38 am
You put 1/3 each into the US stocks, International stocks, and US Bonds.
The OP said he wants 8+% annual growth. This portfolio won't do that.
by AlohaJoe
Wed Apr 11, 2018 7:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe on CAPE: liked the article but disagree with the conclusions
Replies: 25
Views: 1340

Re: Larry Swedroe on CAPE: liked the article but disagree with the conclusions

But there is another way of using valuations, and that is to tilt one's allocation in stocks towards those geographical regions (like EM, or Europe) with lower valuations, and then leave it with that tilt for a long time. There are a number of firms, like RA, GMO or StarCapital in Europe, that sugg...