Search found 4031 matches

by AlohaJoe
Tue Jan 22, 2019 11:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Investing in only 3 target funds just seems.... strange.
Replies: 12
Views: 965

Re: Investing in only 3 target funds just seems.... strange.

I can't explain it but to be so heavily invested in target type funds seems odd, Am I over(under) analyzing this or what? It doesn't seem like you've analysed it at all, since you can't explain it and are just going based on "feelings". Anyway, the Vanguard fund clearly has 4 funds. So you already ...
by AlohaJoe
Tue Jan 22, 2019 10:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Rebalance Timing Luck"
Replies: 3
Views: 448

"Rebalance Timing Luck"

Newfound Research has an interesting new piece out about (inadvertent) market timing by those who rebalance on a fixed date (i.e. monthly, quarterly) Though they point out that even people using rebalance bands are subject to timing luck based on when they start the portfolio. https://papers.ssrn.co...
by AlohaJoe
Tue Jan 22, 2019 9:54 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Has anyone see an inheritance not go as planned? I would like to hear stories from others of what can go wrong.
Replies: 110
Views: 7604

Re: Has anyone see an inheritance not go as planned? I would like to hear stories from others of what can go wrong.

Reading over these stories, I am struck by how 90% of them boil down to, "Elderly person didn't want to discuss their plans with heirs and so disappointment and bitter feelings ensued." It seems clear what the actionable advice should be for all of us. Yet I wonder, how many of us who are, say, 50+ ...
by AlohaJoe
Tue Jan 22, 2019 9:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Spend Down Strategies Part 1
Replies: 4
Views: 857

Re: Larry Swedroe: Spend Down Strategies Part 1

FWIW, I thought this was by far the best chapter in the book. So now you can read the best part for free. :D
by AlohaJoe
Tue Jan 22, 2019 7:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Muscular Portfolios Questions
Replies: 17
Views: 2364

Re: Muscular Portfolios Questions

I saw an article today investigating two of the portfolios from the book: https://allocatesmartly.com/livingstons-muscular-portfolios/ The short and sweet take: neither of these strategies tread new ground – they’re both based on the tried and true concept of “relative” (aka cross-sectional) momentu...
by AlohaJoe
Tue Jan 22, 2019 1:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: One Fund to Rule Them All
Replies: 52
Views: 4268

Re: One Fund to Rule Them All

Vanguard Total World Admiral. It will be offered in early February. Having her go 0% international with a 40 year time horizon will be a bad choice. She'll miss out on great companies on this planet Earth if she goes U.S. only. The U.S. only advice is outdated. Which great companies might those be?...
by AlohaJoe
Mon Jan 21, 2019 6:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Value "Premium" has been ZERO for 30 years
Replies: 86
Views: 7130

Re: The Value "Premium" has been ZERO for 30 years

The late John C. Bogle argued that all such premia are rapidly attenuated by mean reversion: https://imgur.com/58mgkXc.jpg If you believe in this line of argument then isn't it an argument in favor of -- and not against -- value funds right now? After all, Bogle's argument is: Mean reversion happen...
by AlohaJoe
Mon Jan 21, 2019 9:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why brokers don’t support auto invest ETF, but can do it with dividends.
Replies: 16
Views: 1371

Re: Why brokers don’t support auto invest ETF, but can do it with dividends.

Why can’t they provide a similar option for automatic investment They clearly can since Vanguard's Personal Advisor Services, Schwab Intelligent Portfolios, Betterment, M1Finance, and others do exactly that. Looking at that my guess is the answer to question is: because they want to keep that funct...
by AlohaJoe
Mon Jan 21, 2019 5:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Was the great bond bull market just plain bull?
Replies: 18
Views: 2428

Re: Was the great bond bull market just plain bull?

A much more detailed article on the same topic: https://blog.thinknewfound.com/2017/04/declining-rates-actually-matter/ What we can see is that coupon return dominates roll and shift. On an annualized basis, coupon was 6.24%, while roll only contributed 0.24% and shift contributed 2.22%. Which leave...
by AlohaJoe
Mon Jan 21, 2019 2:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Value "Premium" has been ZERO for 30 years
Replies: 86
Views: 7130

Re: The Value "Premium" has been ZERO for 30 years

Doesn't look like it has been zero to me: https://i.imgur.com/xhel1UG.png You selected the Benchmark dataset instead of the Research dataset. it also doesn't look like it has been zero if you believe there is a world outside of the US: https://i.imgur.com/HNYqhhC.png (Global) https://i.imgur.com/cmB...
by AlohaJoe
Sun Jan 20, 2019 11:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dow Jones Index has beaten cap weighting
Replies: 8
Views: 825

Re: Dow Jones Index has beaten cap weighting

According to Portfolio Visualizer, from Jan 1999 to Dec 2018 (the available period) DIA (SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF) has had a higher CAGR and lower volatility than VTSMX and VFINX And over other time periods it did worse. Just compare the actual annual returns. The entirety of the outpe...
by AlohaJoe
Sun Jan 20, 2019 11:00 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: best way to cash a Aussie $ check
Replies: 11
Views: 708

Re: best way to cash a Aussie $ check

They still use checks? A wire transfer is well suited for this transaction. No, nobody in Australia uses checks. I've never seen one. I've heard stories that 20 years ago some businesses used them. I don't think normal people have used checks for a very long time. I wouldn't even know how to get a ...
by AlohaJoe
Sun Jan 20, 2019 10:58 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: best way to cash a Aussie $ check
Replies: 11
Views: 708

Re: best way to cash a Aussie $ check

I am looking for the cheapest option with least transaction fee. I do not mind if the money is not in my account immediately. Wire transfer costs money both ways. So? Is the cost of the wire transfer more or less than the cost of having your bank convert the money for you? What exchange rate do the...
by AlohaJoe
Sun Jan 20, 2019 8:21 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: best way to cash a Aussie $ check
Replies: 11
Views: 708

Re: best way to cash a Aussie $ check

Why on Earth would you keep the money in AUD? I don't understand what you are trying to accomplish.

Get paid in USD, not AUD. Use a wire transfer or one of the many international money transfer services like ofx or transferwise or currencyfair.
by AlohaJoe
Sun Jan 20, 2019 7:19 pm
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Australian Chapter ?
Replies: 19
Views: 3928

Re: Australian Chapter ?

vish100 wrote:
Sun Jan 20, 2019 2:45 am
Can Australians not invest in same funds that American do with a broker that deals in international securities/instruments? Is it safe?
Not in retirement funds, generally. In taxable funds, yes. But why should they buy US funds when there are Australian funds available?
by AlohaJoe
Sun Jan 20, 2019 12:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is index investing better than other quantitative strategies?
Replies: 38
Views: 3539

Re: Why is index investing better than other quantitative strategies?

Is there some sort of mathematical reason for it The original call for index funds came from three main sources: Burton Malkiel (1973), Paul Samuelson (1974), and Charles Ellis (1975). Burton Malkiel espoused Boglehead investing (or something very close to it) before Vanguard even existed. (Though ...
by AlohaJoe
Sat Jan 19, 2019 10:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What does 20% extra of portfolio allocated to equities get you?
Replies: 112
Views: 6629

Re: What does 20% extra of portfolio allocated to equities get you?

I agree with klangfool here, and IMO the best stock/bond risk factors are 30/70 to 50/50. I believe this allocation is best for everyone whether you are 25 or 86. The math clearly shows that 70/30 is pretty much the optimal AA. Optimal in what way? No investment or AA is optimal in every way. While...
by AlohaJoe
Sat Jan 19, 2019 10:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What does 20% extra of portfolio allocated to equities get you?
Replies: 112
Views: 6629

Re: What does 20% extra of portfolio allocated to equities get you?

james7777 wrote:
Sat Jan 19, 2019 1:21 pm
2) U.S. interest rates are currently the highest in the world
What a strange thing to claim. The US does not have the highest rates in the world -- Mexico is over 8% and it is nowhere close to the highest rate in the world.
by AlohaJoe
Sat Jan 19, 2019 10:08 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Wire $50K Out of the Country
Replies: 15
Views: 1284

Re: Wire $50K Out of the Country

Not sure it's just you and them. There are likely intermediate banks in the middle. The client is probably actually sending $1000, but that's not what your bank recieves. Ah, true, I forgot about correspondent banks & their hidden fees. If you don't pay careful attention it is very easy to get hit ...
by AlohaJoe
Sat Jan 19, 2019 3:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My trend following strategy and experience
Replies: 157
Views: 5737

Re: My trend following strategy and experience

You've got over 1,000 replies to go before you catch up to the greatest trend following post/flamewar in Bogleheads's history

viewtopic.php?t=27460

Good luck on your adventure ;)
by AlohaJoe
Sat Jan 19, 2019 2:35 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Wire $50K Out of the Country
Replies: 15
Views: 1284

Re: Wire $50K Out of the Country

Question for foreign wires. This happens to me and happens to foreign clients who wire money to me. When someone wires, say $1000, to a foreign bank (or vice versa), I receive only $975 and I also pay a $15 wire transfer fee, so I only receive $960. How come I can't receive $1000 (of course I owe t...
by AlohaJoe
Fri Jan 18, 2019 9:37 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Wire $50K Out of the Country
Replies: 15
Views: 1284

Re: Wire $50K Out of the Country

Looking for a recommendation on the best way to wire $50K Out of the country. My bank offer wire transfers but their exchange rate is not the greatest and will end up losing close to $1K because of their exchange rate. Why are you using your bank to exchange money? Just wire it in USD and leave it ...
by AlohaJoe
Thu Jan 17, 2019 10:25 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Have I Now Become Out of Touch Financially? Aging question...
Replies: 90
Views: 11141

Re: Have I Now Become Out of Touch Financially? Aging question...

The Fed might say inflation is around 2% The Federal Reserve doesn't measure inflation. From the latest fed meeting notes: "The information reviewed for the December 18-19 meeting indicated that labor market conditions continued to strengthen in recent months and that real GDP growth was strong. Co...
by AlohaJoe
Thu Jan 17, 2019 8:07 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How long until we see negative ER funds?
Replies: 44
Views: 3183

Re: How long until we see negative ER funds?

I have not seen a straight answer from Fidelity as to what happens to lending revenue. I'm not sure what you mean by straight answer here -- what else does Fidelity need to say beyond what is in the prospectus and annual reports? -- but Fidelity ZERO Total Market Index Fund made $7.4 million in sec...
by AlohaJoe
Thu Jan 17, 2019 7:44 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How long until we see negative ER funds?
Replies: 44
Views: 3183

Re: How long until we see negative ER funds?

I have not seen a straight answer from Fidelity as to what happens to lending revenue. I'm not sure what you mean by straight answer here -- what else does Fidelity need to say beyond what is in the prospectus and annual reports? -- but Fidelity ZERO Total Market Index Fund made $7.4 million in sec...
by AlohaJoe
Thu Jan 17, 2019 7:34 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How long until we see negative ER funds?
Replies: 44
Views: 3183

Re: How long until we see negative ER funds?

This assumes that securities lending revenue is passed on to the fund’s shareholders. Is there any evidence that that does indeed happen? Yes, there is evidence. There is no assumption being made. You can read the annual reports that are filed with the SEC and sent to every fund holder. In the year...
by AlohaJoe
Thu Jan 17, 2019 7:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If Everyone Did The 3 Fund Vanguard Strategy, Would Vanguard Be Controlling US Companies?
Replies: 10
Views: 1424

Re: If Everyone Did The 3 Fund Vanguard Strategy, Would Vanguard Be Controlling US Companies?

If everyone did the 3 Fund Vanguard strategy, would any of these be true? "What if everyone in the world gave AlohaJoe all their money? Would that mean he controls all the companies? Or would it mean he is broke because money ceases to have value? And how can I use these insights in a personal & ac...
by AlohaJoe
Thu Jan 17, 2019 11:46 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How long until we see negative ER funds?
Replies: 44
Views: 3183

Re: How long until we see negative ER funds?

What makes you think there isn't already a negative ER fund? VTWO (from Vanguard) & IWM (from iShares) already have negative effective ERs. The world has long since moved past ER at the truly meaningful number thanks to confounding factors like securities lending. What really matters is tracking err...
by AlohaJoe
Thu Jan 17, 2019 7:09 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Have I Now Become Out of Touch Financially? Aging question...
Replies: 90
Views: 11141

Re: Have I Now Become Out of Touch Financially? Aging question...

HAL 9000 wrote:
Wed Jan 16, 2019 9:26 pm
The Fed might say inflation is around 2%
The Federal Reserve doesn't measure inflation.
by AlohaJoe
Wed Jan 16, 2019 11:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retirement savings new research
Replies: 29
Views: 5998

Re: Retirement savings new research

It is similar (overlapping) what Wade Phau says that when you retire that getting through the first few years is everything. He prefers a higher concentration in bonds and then slowly increasing your stock holdings I think that's a mischaracterisation. He prefers you not hold any bonds at all. Read...
by AlohaJoe
Wed Jan 16, 2019 10:29 pm
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Australian Chapter ?
Replies: 19
Views: 3928

Re: Australian Chapter ?

Any more Sydneysiders hanging around? I know a couple more Boglehead sympathisers on other forums. I'm a Sydneysider. But I think it is an uphill battle to make this forum anything but American-focused and you're better off trying to start an Australian equivalent somewhere else. (I think Canadians...
by AlohaJoe
Wed Jan 16, 2019 8:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why are you NOT buying rental properties?
Replies: 221
Views: 16120

Re: Why are you NOT buying rental properties?

So, I have to ask..if you are willing to hustle and you have the money, why are you not buying rental properties? No mortgages where I live, so I'd have to pay the full price in cash, so no leverage. No tax benefits where I live. No insurance where I live, so all damages & liabilities are paid in f...
by AlohaJoe
Wed Jan 16, 2019 1:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When would you stop being a Boglehead?
Replies: 95
Views: 7409

Re: When would you stop being a Boglehead?

Pretty much everyone here (myself included) is convinced about the low-cost, do-it-yourself investing philosophy. But I’m curious: at which point would you start considering to delegate the management of your portfolio to firms like Merrill Lynch and Morgan Stanley? $10M? $50M? Literally never? I w...
by AlohaJoe
Wed Jan 16, 2019 12:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: An Annuity Hater Revisits SPIAs
Replies: 22
Views: 2924

Re: An Annuity Hater Revisits SPIAs

When did 10% become "hyperinflation"? Sheesh, talk about watering down the meaning of words.
by AlohaJoe
Tue Jan 15, 2019 9:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Book on withdrawal strategies / retirement income?
Replies: 19
Views: 1861

Re: Book on withdrawal strategies / retirement income?

http://longevity.stanford.edu/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/Optimizing-Retirement-Income-Solutions-November-2017-SCL-Version.pdf http://longevity.stanford.edu/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/How-to-pensionize-any-IRA-401k-final.pdf One of the co-authors -- Steve Vernon -- has published a book Retirement Ga...
by AlohaJoe
Tue Jan 15, 2019 10:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Book on withdrawal strategies / retirement income?
Replies: 19
Views: 1861

Re: Book on withdrawal strategies / retirement income?

I'm considering buying How Much Can I Spend in Retirement?: A Guide to Investment-Based Retirement Income Strategies by Wade Pfau next. I found this pretty....not good. And definitely not practical. Could you give us the one paragraph expansion of that statement? The book is mostly a collection of ...
by AlohaJoe
Mon Jan 14, 2019 8:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Book on withdrawal strategies / retirement income?
Replies: 19
Views: 1861

Re: Book on withdrawal strategies / retirement income?

germark wrote:
Mon Jan 14, 2019 3:47 pm
I'm considering buying How Much Can I Spend in Retirement?: A Guide to Investment-Based Retirement Income Strategies by Wade Pfau next.
I found this pretty....not good. And definitely not practical.
by AlohaJoe
Mon Jan 14, 2019 7:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: PG&E Bonds
Replies: 49
Views: 5078

Re: PG&E Bonds

Also looks like you might get to see what happens in real time since PG&E just announced it would file for bankruptcy this morning... And their stock is down about 50% at the moment. In a capital structure reorganization shareholders are last in line to be paid. Frequently there's nothing left afte...
by AlohaJoe
Sun Jan 13, 2019 10:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Opinion: Half of investment-grade bonds are only one step away from junk status
Replies: 23
Views: 2422

Re: Opinion: Half of investment-grade bonds are only one step away from junk status

I hope my perception of biting sarcasm in your response is false. Of the major investment-grade corporate bond funds, the Vanguard Intermediate-Term Corporate Bond ETF (VCIT) is the riskiest to own. This $18 billion fund yields 3.6% (TTM, or trailing 12 months) but has a dangerous mix of assets. VC...
by AlohaJoe
Sun Jan 13, 2019 7:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Opinion: Half of investment-grade bonds are only one step away from junk status
Replies: 23
Views: 2422

Re: Opinion: Half of investment-grade bonds are only one step away from junk status

What does the article have to do with VCIT? I don't understand the relationship. Go to Vanguard's page and tell me what percent is in BBB bonds.
by AlohaJoe
Sat Jan 12, 2019 8:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emerging markets cannot be fairly valued and investors are better off elsewhere: Change my mind :)
Replies: 128
Views: 7428

Re: Emerging markets cannot be fairly valued and investors are better off elsewhere: Change my mind :)

Nicolas Perrault wrote:
Sat Jan 12, 2019 2:46 pm
I had the chance to visit Fiji about ten years ago.
What does Fiji have to do with emerging markets? Fiji isn't an emerging market.

I'm confused about the relevance of your anecdote.
by AlohaJoe
Fri Jan 11, 2019 3:33 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: International debate again!!
Replies: 16
Views: 1139

Re: International debate again!!

Vanguard has just upped it's recommendation to 40% International now: https://www.yahoo.com/amphtml/finance/news/vanguard-recommends-investors-increase-non-013404803.html i'm right now at 20% but just wondering if anyone is taking this advice seriously. Aren't there arguments against this? Since wh...
by AlohaJoe
Thu Jan 10, 2019 9:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: PG&E Bonds
Replies: 49
Views: 5078

Re: PG&E Bonds

Indexes don't get updated daily, though. I think most are "reconstituted" quarterly.
by AlohaJoe
Wed Jan 09, 2019 11:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Would your FIRE plan work had your journey started 1965?
Replies: 66
Views: 4440

Re: Would your FIRE plan work had your journey started 1965?

The stock market went down over 70% between 1965 and 1982 , following a 15-year bull market. Now we are standing at the start of another bear market. What if the history repeats itself? A 4% "safe" withdrawl rate is surely not safe... If my memory serves me, interest rates were extremely high back ...
by AlohaJoe
Wed Jan 09, 2019 10:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Does The Bucket Approach Destroy Wealth?
Replies: 56
Views: 5808

Re: Larry Swedroe: Does The Bucket Approach Destroy Wealth?

Would love to see a more detailed analysis with a wider variety of approaches. I don't understand the rules for your bucket strategy. When do you refill Bucket 1? When do you refill Bucket 2? How do you insure that equities remains at 40-60% with the refilling rules you've chosen? Buckets are refil...
by AlohaJoe
Wed Jan 09, 2019 10:40 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why isn't an AA of 75/25 with a SWR 3.75% the standard??
Replies: 62
Views: 6867

Re: Why isn't an AA of 75/25 with a SWR 3.75% the standard??

It is worth keeping in mind that even as high as 4%, the most likely outcome is that you will die with more than you started. If you go down to 3%, it is almost guaranteed. The way you've phrased this isn't quite true (though I know what you meant) simply because you are quite likely to die :). For...
by AlohaJoe
Wed Jan 09, 2019 7:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Does The Bucket Approach Destroy Wealth?
Replies: 56
Views: 5808

Re: Larry Swedroe: Does The Bucket Approach Destroy Wealth?

Who has done a study explicitly considering my risk of dying before I run out of money? Lots and lots of people have done the study. Here is one recent example called "Rich, Broke, Dead". Here's an simulation showing some retiring early (at age 55) but using 4% withdrawal (what many people would co...
by AlohaJoe
Wed Jan 09, 2019 6:42 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Investing as an Expatriate
Replies: 11
Views: 500

Re: Investing as an Expatriate

I will be paid by the Australian office in AUD. However, I know that my 401k contributions will be taken out state side so that will remain the same. Huh? So you'll still be on the US payroll? You have to have US source income to do that, so you have to be on the payroll of a US company, I thought?...
by AlohaJoe
Tue Jan 08, 2019 9:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Does The Bucket Approach Destroy Wealth?
Replies: 56
Views: 5808

Re: Larry Swedroe: Does The Bucket Approach Destroy Wealth?

WoodSpinner wrote:
Tue Jan 08, 2019 7:42 pm
Would love to see a more detailed analysis with a wider variety of approaches.
I don't understand the rules for your bucket strategy. When do you refill Bucket 1? When do you refill Bucket 2? How do you insure that equities remains at 40-60% with the refilling rules you've chosen?
by AlohaJoe
Tue Jan 08, 2019 9:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Does The Bucket Approach Destroy Wealth?
Replies: 56
Views: 5808

Re: Larry Swedroe: Does The Bucket Approach Destroy Wealth?

However, Estrada's 21 countries have to include some that got clobbered in World War II, experienced currency devaluation, and so forth. [...] I can't read Estrada's papers at work, but I will certainly look into them when I get home. It doesn't sound crazy to me. All of things you listed are not g...