Search found 3906 matches

by AlohaJoe
Mon Dec 17, 2018 10:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do trading curbs make sense?
Replies: 9
Views: 612

Re: Do trading curbs make sense?

I always wondered why they didn't have trading curbs when the market goes up. (Well, not really, traders would grab the nearest pitchforks and torches if the market was shut down because stocks had a stellar day.) What problems would that prevent? The market went up 11% on October 13, 2008 (the big...
by AlohaJoe
Mon Dec 17, 2018 9:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Allan Roth: 3 Correlation Myths In Portfolio Construction
Replies: 97
Views: 5741

Re: Allan Roth: 3 Correlation Myths In Portfolio Construction

I guess one way to put it is that someone in the LDI/LMP camp puts a lot more of their eggs in something that approximates a riskless asset for the given investment horizon I think one of the bigger failings of the LDI/LMP camp is that there is almost no thought/analysis given to the gap between th...
by AlohaJoe
Mon Dec 17, 2018 8:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do trading curbs make sense?
Replies: 9
Views: 612

Re: Do trading curbs make sense?

the purpose was to let the little guy get in and sell before the bottom fell out. That was never the purpose of trading curbs. The goal of trading curbs was to give traders enough time to talk with specialists and decide what the "real" price of things were. You can go read the Brady Report to see ...
by AlohaJoe
Mon Dec 17, 2018 8:42 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Can I retire
Replies: 126
Views: 9597

Re: Can I retire

But it's clear that having $150K in expenses and only $2.5M in retirement savings IS NOT a combination that works for early retirement. Either cut expenses, or save more. Absolutely. The OP even actually seems to be on-track for a normal retirement without any serious spending cuts. (With $2.5 mill...
by AlohaJoe
Mon Dec 17, 2018 10:37 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Can I retire
Replies: 126
Views: 9597

Re: Can I retire

On the other hand, you really shouldn't be using the word "trivial" above when talking about spending that only the top 2% can do. That's equally ridiculous. I didn't mean to imply that it is trivial to do. Only that it is trivial to come up with examples of other people doing. Remember, this digre...
by AlohaJoe
Sun Dec 16, 2018 10:48 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Can I retire
Replies: 126
Views: 9597

Re: Can I retire

Public school is always an option, as is where you live. It is actually illegal for me to send my children to public school where I live. In Australia public schools cost up to AUD$18,000 a year if you aren't a permanent resident (i.e. are just there on a visa for work for a few years) under the th...
by AlohaJoe
Sun Dec 16, 2018 10:29 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Can I retire
Replies: 126
Views: 9597

Re: Can I retire

Public school is always an option, as is where you live. It is actually illegal for me to send my children to public school where I live. In Australia public schools cost up to AUD$18,000 a year if you aren't a permanent resident (i.e. are just there on a visa for work for a few years) under the th...
by AlohaJoe
Sun Dec 16, 2018 9:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Passing assets to next generation, best way !!!
Replies: 23
Views: 1165

Re: Passing assets to next generation, best way !!!

LiveSimple wrote:
Sun Dec 16, 2018 8:47 pm
Reading on the topic of what is the best way pass the assets to the next generation, from a tax perspective and ease.
The best way is to do it via annual gifts that are under the gift tax exclusion.
by AlohaJoe
Sun Dec 16, 2018 7:49 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Can I retire
Replies: 126
Views: 9597

Re: Can I retire

How can someone spend 250k a year in living expenses? Maybe I/we need to spend more but there is no way I can see use spend 250k per year! What am I missing? (Just curious if my calculations are wrong and in no way trying to shame anyone) Is it really so hard to imagine that other people could spen...
by AlohaJoe
Sun Dec 16, 2018 7:54 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Can I retire
Replies: 126
Views: 9597

Re: Can I retire

How can someone spend 250k a year in living expenses? Maybe I/we need to spend more but there is no way I can see use spend 250k per year! What am I missing? (Just curious if my calculations are wrong and in no way trying to shame anyone) Is it really so hard to imagine that other people could spen...
by AlohaJoe
Sun Dec 16, 2018 1:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can Vanguard freeze mutual fund redemptions during times of duress?
Replies: 14
Views: 2995

Re: Can Vanguard freeze mutual fund redemptions during times of duress?

Is there any scenario that allows Vanguard to temporarily limit or freeze redemptions from its mutual funds? Yes, there are scenarios where mutual funds (from any company) are allowed to freeze or delay redemptions. As just one example, mutual funds are allowed to delay redemptions when there is "r...
by AlohaJoe
Sat Dec 15, 2018 10:42 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How much do you pay for internet only?
Replies: 71
Views: 4122

Re: How much do you pay for internet only?

RickBoglehead wrote:
Sat Dec 15, 2018 10:32 am
It's irrelevant to compare. Different markets, different providers. Only relevant if same market, then it's a difference of ability to push provider.
I was curious what the OP is actually going to do with this thread. Print it out, take it to the Optimum office and demand they price match?
by AlohaJoe
Sat Dec 15, 2018 10:31 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How much do you pay for internet only?
Replies: 71
Views: 4122

Re: How much do you pay for internet only?

I pay $17 a month for fiber to the house with no contracts.
by AlohaJoe
Sat Dec 15, 2018 12:13 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Can I retire
Replies: 126
Views: 9597

Re: Can I retire

54 year old male married to 52 year old wife (non-working) with a 16 year old son. I want to retire as soon as possible. Please tell me its possible 8-) . I had a free consult with Vanguard rep a couple of years ago who just laughed at me. Salary: $255,000 per year Annual Bonus (non guaranteed): $5...
by AlohaJoe
Fri Dec 14, 2018 8:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is the worst 30 year rolling return in history? Could 2000-2030 be worse?
Replies: 20
Views: 2658

Re: What is the worst 30 year rolling return in history? Could 2000-2030 be worse?

What is the worst 30 year rolling return for S and p 500? I think it's something like 8% from 1929-1959, but maybe I'm wrong. Yes, you are wrong. It is 4.7% from 1903-1932. It included the Panic of 1903, Panic of 1907, the entering WW1 crash, the exiting WW1 crash, and the Depression of 1920, as we...
by AlohaJoe
Fri Dec 14, 2018 8:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is there any market that is not inflated?
Replies: 58
Views: 3623

Re: Is there any market that is not inflated?

they certainly aren't remotely high enough to make 16.6 into CAPE's 29 (which is actually going to fall significantly in a few weeks once 2008's earnings finally drop off) The really low earnings weren't in 2008, they were in 2009. So there's still a ways to go (October of 2019) before those earnin...
by AlohaJoe
Thu Dec 13, 2018 3:21 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What is/ was your career and would you recommend it now?
Replies: 379
Views: 37164

Re: What types of jobs do Bogleheads have?

Here's the Bogleheads' investment philosophy 1 Develop a workable plan 2 Invest early and often 3 Never bear too much or too little risk 4 Diversify 5 Never try to time the market 6 Use index funds when possible 7 Keep costs low 8 Minimize taxes 9 Invest with simplicity 10 Stay the course so it seem...
by AlohaJoe
Thu Dec 13, 2018 1:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How does negative interest rate work?
Replies: 12
Views: 1558

Re: How does negative interest rate work?

But for savers/investors do they really get negative rate on CD and short duration bonds? Banks have eaten the cost of negative rates for retail clients, so no. I know of one German business that, while I was having dinner with the CEO (it was a group dinner and I was a friend-of-a-friend invite), ...
by AlohaJoe
Wed Dec 12, 2018 7:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Early retirement mistakes???
Replies: 37
Views: 6173

Re: Early retirement mistakes???

At the risk of sounding negative, I would rally like to hear from those brave enough to tell lessons learned by retiring too early. *Did you underestimate the amount needed? *Did you misjudge healthcare costs? The Society of Actuaries (SOA) Committee on Post-Retirement Needs and Risks has a number ...
by AlohaJoe
Wed Dec 12, 2018 7:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: VASVX Capital Gains Distribution - when to sell
Replies: 4
Views: 549

Re: VASVX Capital Gains Distribution - when to sell

https://advisors.vanguard.com/VGApp/iip/site/advisor/researchcommentary/article/IWE_News2018EstYEDstMFsandETFs?EXCMPGN=EX:EM:FAS:010117:ADVISOR:ANNOUNCE:EMAIL:ET:2017&sub=33776&st=S You need to sell before the ex-div date. What is the ex-div date? For Selected Value, the record/declaration date is ...
by AlohaJoe
Tue Dec 11, 2018 9:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shrinking dividends?
Replies: 30
Views: 4002

Re: Shrinking dividends?

An article in the New Republic reports, "The Wall Street Journal found that “57% of the more than 350 companies in the S&P 500 that bought back shares so far this year are trailing the index’s 3.2% increase.” https://newrepublic.com/article/150382/apples-stock-market-scam The whole article is worth...
by AlohaJoe
Tue Dec 11, 2018 8:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What Happened to you during the Financial crisis of 2007–2008
Replies: 231
Views: 17950

Re: What Happened to you during the Financial crisis of 2007–2008

I was 100% stocks. Didn't care about the crash. Went to work. Lived my life. I wasn't going to use the money for several decades anyway. Found the "maybe this is the end of modern economies" stuff histrionic. I was trying to sell my house at the time which meant it took 6 months and I ended up selli...
by AlohaJoe
Tue Dec 11, 2018 4:23 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard order fill
Replies: 12
Views: 920

Re: Vanguard order fill

Asking to find out if any one knows why Vanguard takes so long to fill orders? I placed an order last week and VTSAX went up $3 before the order was finally filled the next day. Of course I paid the higher price per stock because of this. This morning I placed an order (also VTSAX) at 0935 and the ...
by AlohaJoe
Mon Dec 10, 2018 8:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Tax Loss Harvesting - Bonehead Move
Replies: 7
Views: 789

Re: Tax Loss Harvesting - Bonehead Move

https://taxmap.irs.gov/taxmap/pubs/p550 ... MP212cbd13

In particular the section, "More or less stock bought than sold".
by AlohaJoe
Mon Dec 10, 2018 7:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard total corporate VTC: Why is the yield so low compared to its parts?
Replies: 9
Views: 805

Re: Vanguard total corporate VTC: Why is the yield so low compared to its parts?

I would think the advantage of a 'Total Corporate' bond fund, would be that there should be lower turnover, the fund isn't constantly having to sell bonds and buy new ones within its target maturity/duration.... but with Vanguard's VTC being a fund of funds it loses that opportunity, iShares USIG w...
by AlohaJoe
Mon Dec 10, 2018 6:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard total corporate VTC: Why is the yield so low compared to its parts?
Replies: 9
Views: 805

Re: Vanguard total corporate VTC: Why is the yield so low compared to its parts?

As the subject stated, why is the yield so low for thus fund of funds? .07 ER and is split between roughly 40% short, and 30% each long and int corporates. However, the sec yield is 3.47 vs (short, int, long) of 3.69, 4.37, 4.96. ytm is 4.3 with a duration of 7 years and average maturity of 10.5. T...
by AlohaJoe
Mon Dec 10, 2018 2:09 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)
Replies: 792
Views: 262880

Re: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)

Assuming that's correct, and since there is no mention of IRA RMDs , I presume it isn't designed to accommodate those. RMDs have nothing to do with withdrawals. Withdrawals are about spending money. RMDs are about moving money from a tax-deferred account to a taxable account. No one says you have t...
by AlohaJoe
Sun Dec 09, 2018 11:46 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Are US long-term capital gains a marginal tax rate?
Replies: 8
Views: 744

Re: Are US long-term capital gains a marginal tax rate?

Iovanaire wrote:
Sun Dec 09, 2018 10:58 pm
Where do I find (ideally at irs.gov) where this is explained?
Publication 17 "Your Federal Income Tax", which contains the answer for virtually every federal tax question ever asked on Bogleheads. :D
by AlohaJoe
Sat Dec 08, 2018 3:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is the division of international markets into "developed" and "emerging" meaningful?
Replies: 16
Views: 1363

Re: Is the division of international markets into "developed" and "emerging" meaningful?

The US and developed international markets are highly correlated This is true-ish but also a bit misleading. By looking at developed (or emerging) in aggregate it becomes a bit weird to talk about whether they are correlated with the US and whether that's a useful difference between developed and e...
by AlohaJoe
Sat Dec 08, 2018 3:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Retirement Is Broken And Needs To Be Reinvented
Replies: 174
Views: 12047

Re: Why Retirement Is Broken And Needs To Be Reinvented

By this definition, Social Security is not a pension. Contributions are not made by an employer, and the pool of funds is not invested on the employee's behalf. Employers do make a contribution. (Employers contribute exactly the same amount as employees do.) The funds are also invested. Here is the...
by AlohaJoe
Fri Dec 07, 2018 9:02 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: YNAB: Age of Money
Replies: 21
Views: 2592

Re: YNAB: Age of Money

while i don't use YNAB.. easily my money is older then that, as i have 18 months of spending as cash. (also known as an emergency fund) That's not what "Age of Money" means in YNAB, though. It is talking about the money that you spend today, tomorrow, everyday, normally. Not about some emergency fu...
by AlohaJoe
Fri Dec 07, 2018 8:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Retirement Is Broken And Needs To Be Reinvented
Replies: 174
Views: 12047

Re: Why Retirement Is Broken And Needs To Be Reinvented

Social Security is not a pension. It’s an insurance plan, as stated right in the name. I prefer to think of it as a reasonably guaranteed cash flow stream... Those can be the same thing. It doesn’t make it a pension plan and it wasn’t intended as a pension plan. What's the definition of a pension p...
by AlohaJoe
Fri Dec 07, 2018 8:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's Your Personal Inflation Rate?
Replies: 38
Views: 2508

Re: What's Your Personal Inflation Rate?

Inflation, as measured by the CPI, measures the change in prices of a fixed set of items. So if chicken thighs are one of the items and the price of chicken thighs goes up, it will cause an increase in the index. Your substitution of pork chops for chicken thighs isn’t reflected in the CPI changes....
by AlohaJoe
Fri Dec 07, 2018 10:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's the effect of high inflation (in a developing country) when you hold all assets outside the country
Replies: 3
Views: 271

Re: What's the effect of high inflation (in a developing country) when you hold all assets outside the country

If a westerner goes to live in a developing country, and that country has a period of higher inflation than the low inflation of the west, but all assets are held outside that country in a global portfolio, what is the real effect of the inflation for that person purchasing power? Is it essentially...
by AlohaJoe
Fri Dec 07, 2018 1:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Lognormal Inflation Model in Monte Carlo Retirement Planning
Replies: 13
Views: 930

Re: Lognormal Inflation Model in Monte Carlo Retirement Planning

6. If I don't use MC then I'm not sure what to do for retirement planning to estimate if the money will last for 30 years (also an arbitrary choice on my part). I agree with randomguy that there is limited value in trying to be too precise. I don't think there's anything wrong with using Monte Carl...
by AlohaJoe
Thu Dec 06, 2018 9:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Wanting to buy on the dip today didn't workout
Replies: 44
Views: 5920

Re: Wanting to buy on the dip today didn't workout

How do people buy on the spot prices without a monster delay? The settlement times only really apply when you want to withdraw money from an account. Which is what you're trying to do here. Settlement times don't apply when you sell in an account and then want to buy in the same account. If you log...
by AlohaJoe
Thu Dec 06, 2018 8:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Retirement Is Broken And Needs To Be Reinvented
Replies: 174
Views: 12047

Re: Why Retirement Is Broken And Needs To Be Reinvented

Social Security is not a pension plan, it is insurance. [...] It’s sort of astonishing how little people really know about a program that has been in existence since the early 1930’s. My own grandparents referred to Social Security as the “monthly pension”. It seems like a distinction without a dif...
by AlohaJoe
Thu Dec 06, 2018 7:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Retirement Is Broken And Needs To Be Reinvented
Replies: 174
Views: 12047

Re: Why Retirement Is Broken And Needs To Be Reinvented

Lack of education didn't create the problem, education isn't going to fix it. I am also mystified about the calls for education. The article mentions that "only" 16% of high school students are required to take a personal finance class in high school. Where are the results of this massive increase ...
by AlohaJoe
Thu Dec 06, 2018 8:30 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What Now?
Replies: 11
Views: 1178

Re: What Now?

The stock market swings are beyond any reasonable consideration and as an older person(78) I no longer care to participate. This is based on your considered mathematical analysis of the the current market versus all previous markets? Could you post those details? Or did you just make up something t...
by AlohaJoe
Thu Dec 06, 2018 7:35 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How does accumulating bond ETF make money?
Replies: 7
Views: 474

Re: How does accumulating bond ETF make money?

J G Bankerton wrote:
Thu Dec 06, 2018 7:05 am
If these work like regular bonds the principal will return to book value at maturity. Bonds are for income not growth. Hold to maturity and one gets 100% of the principal back.
They don't. In particular they are a fund, not a bond. There is also no income at all.
by AlohaJoe
Thu Dec 06, 2018 7:00 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How does accumulating bond ETF make money?
Replies: 7
Views: 474

Re: How does accumulating bond ETF make money?

Bonds are for income. Buy a 10 year bond at 3% and it will pay 3% a year and after 10 years you get your principal back. The worth of your principal goes up or down depending on interest rate and time to maturity. This is true but irrelevant to the OP's question. The OP is asking about accumulating...
by AlohaJoe
Thu Dec 06, 2018 2:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Lognormal Inflation Model in Monte Carlo Retirement Planning
Replies: 13
Views: 930

Re: Lognormal Inflation Model in Monte Carlo Retirement Planning

What I did was cap the upper limit at 16% (I remember too well the early 80's) with no possibility of deflation. Since there have repeatedly been periods of deflation (more common than high inflation, for that matter), it seems weird to eliminate the possibility. Anyway, for a model it is fine-ish....
by AlohaJoe
Thu Dec 06, 2018 12:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Lognormal Inflation Model in Monte Carlo Retirement Planning
Replies: 13
Views: 930

Re: Lognormal Inflation Model in Monte Carlo Retirement Planning

Using a normal distribution for inflation doesn't make sense to me because in reality we haven't seen many instances of deflation. I don't understand this sentence. If I have a normal process with mean of 15% and standard deviation of 2% it will never go below 0 but will still be a normal distribut...
by AlohaJoe
Wed Dec 05, 2018 11:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why buying homes with mortgages is good but buying stocks on margin is bad
Replies: 36
Views: 2905

Re: Why buying homes with mortgages is good but buying stocks on margin is bad

Can someone explain to me why the advise is NEVER buy stocks on margin; however, everyone who has a mortgage and still buying stocks is basically doing the same thing? Can't seem to wrap my head around this one. I use margin. I have about $270,000 of margin at the moment with Interactive Brokers. I...
by AlohaJoe
Wed Dec 05, 2018 10:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why buying homes with mortgages is good but buying stocks on margin is bad
Replies: 36
Views: 2905

Re: Why buying homes with mortgages is good but buying stocks on margin is bad

To play devil's advocate, if long term bonds are bad investments, why do banks offer them? The argugument is overstated but... First, the US government indirectly subsides the intrest rate on home loans. Second, these long bonds are great for insurance companies and pension funds - risk adverse inv...
by AlohaJoe
Wed Dec 05, 2018 9:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The risks of equities when saving for retirement
Replies: 38
Views: 3372

Re: The risks of equities when saving for retirement

If you think this is a real possibility, your best bet is to buy guns, not bonds. This tired quote -- only ever said by Americans -- is tiresome and completely lacking in factual basis. There have been many examples of negative equity risk premium and buying guns was never the answer. The answer wa...
by AlohaJoe
Wed Dec 05, 2018 7:51 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Advice on an expat assignment in Vietnam
Replies: 6
Views: 1017

Re: Advice on an expat assignment in Vietnam

On the verge of making a major professional and personal decision and wanted to get advice from any of you that have gone / are going down this path. I am a foreigner who moved to Vietnam on an expat assignment several years ago and ended up staying here, retiring here, buying a house here. Feel fr...
by AlohaJoe
Mon Dec 03, 2018 9:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Determining a rate for a loan and...
Replies: 19
Views: 870

Re: Determining a rate for a loan and...

- how do I determine today's current interest for a 7 year loan? I can't compare it to anything I know of since loan institutions seem to advertise rates for 15 and 30 year loans. I don't think I've seen them advertise rates for 7 years. Go to bankrate.com. Click "Mortgage Loans". Click "Purchase"....