Search found 2617 matches

by AlohaJoe
Mon Dec 18, 2017 1:57 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Investing in a startup business?
Replies: 14
Views: 651

Re: Investing in a startup business?

So - how do I evaluate the books on this company? Any advice? Thoughts? You can look at a lot of things. Valuation to revenue or profits is a simple one. (e.g. "Take your small business' yearly positive cash flow and multiply it by four.") You could look at free cash flow. You could look at their s...
by AlohaJoe
Mon Dec 18, 2017 12:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing in "Frontier" Markets
Replies: 16
Views: 861

Re: Investing in "Frontier" Markets

Huh, why is the number of securities so low? The Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange in Vietnam alone has 400 listed companies. Those indexes are the 85% market cap versions (large and mid cap, no small cap). You need to look at the all cap indexes to get the fuller coverage. And for an investable index mos...
by AlohaJoe
Mon Dec 18, 2017 12:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are dividends and buybacks equivalent within the context of an index fund?
Replies: 15
Views: 766

Re: Are dividends and buybacks equivalent within the context of an index fund?

Buybacks, in principle, don’t change a company’s capitalization. Therefore an index fund would have to take no action. In principle, buybacks does not affect a stock's price, it does reduce the company's capitalization. How things work "in principle" doesn't seem like a useful thought exercise, sin...
by AlohaJoe
Mon Dec 18, 2017 12:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing in "Frontier" Markets
Replies: 16
Views: 861

Re: Investing in "Frontier" Markets

SimpleGift wrote:
Sun Dec 17, 2017 11:02 pm
the Frontier Markets Index consists of only 100+ stocks and 0.3% of the total.
  • Image
    Source: MSCI, as of November 30, 2017
Huh, why is the number of securities so low? The Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange in Vietnam alone has 400 listed companies.
by AlohaJoe
Sun Dec 17, 2017 9:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Am I wrong in thinking about the bull this way?
Replies: 12
Views: 2051

Re: Am I wrong in thinking about the bull this way?

We have no control over how far the market will drop: 20, 30, 40%. However, if the market is going to drop anyway, isn't it better that it drops from a higher point? First, let me agree with you that people are completely irrational about market crashes. That said, the typical crash fear captures s...
by AlohaJoe
Sun Dec 17, 2017 8:20 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: too much $ in my company of work?
Replies: 42
Views: 2638

Re: too much $ in my company of work?

carolinaman wrote:
Sun Dec 17, 2017 8:01 am
Keep an eye on the proposed new tax reform law which may be passed this week. It includes requirement that you must sell the oldest stock first which would increase your tax liability.
No it doesn't. Which is why discussing proposed legislation is banned on this forum....
by AlohaJoe
Sun Dec 17, 2017 5:44 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: too much $ in my company of work?
Replies: 42
Views: 2638

Re: too much $ in my company of work?

The company I work (large cap value) for has done well this year. If I sell it to rotate will trigger quite a bit of tax hit. All my other investments are in index funds. As a back-of-the-envelope guess, the tax hit is around 8% of the total value (15% capital gains tax on the profits, assuming 100...
by AlohaJoe
Sat Dec 16, 2017 9:57 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bonds-Is the "coupon" what we should expect for return??
Replies: 13
Views: 748

Re: Bonds-Is the "coupon" what we should expect for return??

Should be mostly the same for corporate bonds of investment grade under most circumstances, but less so if there are issues with credit and you're looking at something with significant BBB holdings. A year ago AAA yields (according to FRED) were 3.51% but the Bloomberg 5-10 Year Corporate Index is ...
by AlohaJoe
Fri Dec 15, 2017 10:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bonds-Is the "coupon" what we should expect for return??
Replies: 13
Views: 748

Re: Bonds-Is the "coupon" what we should expect for return??

No, you should expect the return to be on average closer to the yield (to maturity, or in some cases yield to worst). I think (but am not sure) that this is only true for Treasuries. At least, I've never seen any other bond used in the usual "yield predict return" charts. Plus, no one really thinks...
by AlohaJoe
Fri Dec 15, 2017 7:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Factor-Based Investing: The Long-Term Evidence - Dimson & Marsh
Replies: 90
Views: 3600

Re: Factor-Based Investing: The Long-Term Evidence - Dimson & Marsh

But I don't have a non-market allocation. Don't you? You're not holding the (global) market at global weight. So your factor exposure is 0.91 market, -0.21 size, -0.08 value, -0.05 momentum (and a ton of unexplained alpha!) according to PortfolioVisualizer. I mean, whenever people talk about "US ou...
by AlohaJoe
Thu Dec 14, 2017 3:27 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Sinking fund for dream cars
Replies: 23
Views: 1597

Re: Sinking fund for dream cars

rashad3000 wrote:
Wed Dec 13, 2017 10:13 am
Should we just start sinking funds right now for those vehicles?
People are way too focused on the specific cars mentioned.

You should always have a "sinking fund" for your next vehicle purchase. Whether it is a mental account or a real one is up to each person.
by AlohaJoe
Wed Dec 13, 2017 10:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Thoughts on using safe-ish investments to buy S&P 500 on margin in December?
Replies: 176
Views: 4679

Re: Thoughts on using safe-ish investments to buy S&P 500 on margin in December?

If you have $100k in mutual funds, your broker will treat that as $50k in cash for margin purposes. Brokers will lend you far more than 50%. You're only looking at Reg T margin and not Portfolio Margin. If I had $100k in mutual funds, my broker would give me ~$82k in margin. So which is more Bogle-...
by AlohaJoe
Wed Dec 13, 2017 10:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Overweight bonds and REITs in tax-advantaged accounts?
Replies: 5
Views: 585

Re: Overweight bonds and REITs in tax-advantaged accounts?

My dilemma: This means that if asset prices are driven mainly by what taxable investors are willing to pay (I would love to know to what extent they are, if anyone has some idea), tax-inefficient investments should outperform tax-efficient investments in my tax advantaged accounts Your hypothesis i...
by AlohaJoe
Tue Dec 12, 2017 10:21 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: South American bank interest rates question
Replies: 10
Views: 852

Re: South American bank interest rates question

Pulling it from high interest loan returns ( literally just thought of that as I was typing and maybe that's the answer )? Yes. Here in Vietnam I have a 12-month CD that pays 7.8%. But if you want to borrow money from the bank they charge you (at least) 8.2%. That leaves 0.4% of profit/covering los...
by AlohaJoe
Tue Dec 12, 2017 9:59 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: New job - possible to keep my 2017 bonus?
Replies: 4
Views: 717

Re: New job - possible to keep my 2017 bonus?

You are going to lose your bonus unless you stay until March 2017 or convince the new employer to compensate you.
by AlohaJoe
Mon Dec 11, 2017 10:16 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Pakistan Real Estate?
Replies: 38
Views: 3531

Re: Dubai and Pakistan Real Estate?

In the cities it's not uncommon to find a person owning 2-3 houses (each worth $250-350K), 3-4 lots (some worth over $100k). Think about what you just wrote here. "It's not uncommon" means "it is common". "It is common to find people, in a country where the annual per capita income is $650 a year, ...
by AlohaJoe
Mon Dec 11, 2017 3:05 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Gap Year, Sabbatical, Leave of Absence - Questioning My Sanity
Replies: 32
Views: 3617

Re: Gap Year, Sabbatical, Leave of Absence - Questioning My Sanity

From the Bogleheads who took these sorts of breaks, any recommendations, advice, or suggestions? I know lots of people who have done this. I don't know a single person who has said they regretted it. Every company on the planet offers unpaid leaves of absence. Whether they will let you take it or n...
by AlohaJoe
Sun Dec 10, 2017 7:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Forward looking expected returns and SD:your guess and reason
Replies: 6
Views: 543

Re: Forward looking expected returns and SD:your guess and reason

Instead of asking a bunch of internet yahoos why don't you read the many, many Expected Returns white papers that are published every year around now. Robeco, BNY Mellon, iShares, JP Morgan, etc. They all explain their reasons in a lot more detail than some anonymous message board post will.
by AlohaJoe
Sun Dec 10, 2017 12:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Are So Many Companies Announcing Share Buyback?
Replies: 32
Views: 2930

Re: Why Are So Many Companies Announcing Share Buyback?

In the last few days, at least Bank of America, Home Depot, Honeywell, Mastercard, T-Mobile US, and United Airlines have announced share buyback. Is this more than normal? What this indicates? https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2017-08-14/corporate-america-isn-t-buying...
by AlohaJoe
Sat Dec 09, 2017 11:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TSM vs High Dividend Yield if I never choose to sell?
Replies: 36
Views: 2328

Re: TSM vs High Dividend Yield if I never choose to sell?

while the TSM wouldn't give off nearly as big of a dividend. This isn't true. Rather, it may or may not be true but you haven't done any work to see whether it is. High Dividend Yield may have a higher yield but that doesn't mean it has a higher dividend. The dividend is the result of the yield tim...
by AlohaJoe
Sat Dec 09, 2017 10:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Pakistan Real Estate?
Replies: 38
Views: 3531

Re: Dubai and Pakistan Real Estate?

From the conversations I gather that the prices DOUBLE in 2-3 years. People buy lots for $30K and then sell for $60K. They tell me that the prices never go down, because the cities are always growing and there's an influx of money and demand from the large expat population. Is anyone here familiar ...
by AlohaJoe
Sat Dec 09, 2017 7:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Are So Many Companies Announcing Share Buyback?
Replies: 32
Views: 2930

Re: Why Are So Many Companies Announcing Share Buyback?

In the last few days, at least Bank of America, Home Depot, Honeywell, Mastercard, T-Mobile US, and United Airlines have announced share buyback. Is this more than normal? What this indicates? https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2017-08-14/corporate-america-isn-t-buying...
by AlohaJoe
Fri Dec 08, 2017 10:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is Vanguard switching all accounts to brokerage accounts?
Replies: 45
Views: 5388

Re: Why is Vanguard switching all accounts to brokerage accounts?

[...] ease of securing against hackers [...] Can you tell a bit more about this? One the face of it, a brokerage account, where it is possible to trade very many types of securities intraday at whatever price, seems like a much more desirable target for hackers than a mutual fund account that only ...
by AlohaJoe
Fri Dec 08, 2017 8:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is Vanguard switching all accounts to brokerage accounts?
Replies: 45
Views: 5388

Re: Why is Vanguard switching all accounts to brokerage accounts?

Cost, ease of future development, ease of security auditing, ease of financial auditing, ease of securing against hackers, ease of disaster recovery, ease of scheduling on call rotations for the development and sysadmin team, ease of training good customer support agents, ....
by AlohaJoe
Thu Dec 07, 2017 8:17 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Do people still use AAA?
Replies: 181
Views: 10956

Re: Do people still use AAA?

The financial cost is easily self-insured. The inconvenience, aggravation, and process of getting cleaned up is often more costly than the $ I don't know what inconvenience, aggravation, or "getting cleaned up" you are talking about. I still pay someone to tow when things happen. I just don't pay a...
by AlohaJoe
Thu Dec 07, 2017 6:55 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Do people still use AAA?
Replies: 181
Views: 10956

Re: Do people still use AAA?

No, I don't.

AAA is insurance.

I can afford to self-insure.

That's normally how Bogleheads approach insurance. I'm a bit surprised to see so many taking a different approach with AAA.
by AlohaJoe
Wed Dec 06, 2017 8:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does it look like a bubble to you?
Replies: 42
Views: 3604

Re: Does it look like a bubble to you?

Image

Being massively behind the 2004-2008 trendline is called being in a bubble?

Looks to me like it is just the rest of the world is finally recovering from the Global Financial Crisis.

I guess people can always find something to be scared of.
by AlohaJoe
Wed Dec 06, 2017 1:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why would I invest in this bond fund vs keeping it in a savings account?
Replies: 3
Views: 928

Re: Why would I invest in this bond fund vs keeping it in a savings account?

Why would anyone invest in this? - Because they want to invest $2 million, which is far above FDIC limits. - Because they don't have access to a US bank account. (e.g. foreign investor or just a US citizen living overseas without a US mailing address) - Because the difference of <1% on something th...
by AlohaJoe
Tue Dec 05, 2017 11:34 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Paying taxes with credit card?
Replies: 28
Views: 2655

Re: Paying taxes with credit card?

But it's only worthwhile up to the amount that you would have spent at Amazon anyway (or would have bought somewhere and Amazon is still good value). Yes, indeed. For instance, we know we will buy all the dog's food from Amazon. That's a lot of dog food from Amazon! Maybe it is expensive artisinal ...
by AlohaJoe
Tue Dec 05, 2017 9:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond Risk question
Replies: 18
Views: 1747

Re: Bond Risk question

[...]but the Fed moves are usually not unexpected and are not that large. If the Fed moved the target rate by 100 bps that would probably cause a spike. I agree they usually are not. But it has happened multiple times, so we don't have to guess about the effects, we can look at the actual historica...
by AlohaJoe
Tue Dec 05, 2017 9:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond Risk question
Replies: 18
Views: 1747

Re: Bond Risk question

Since the value of bond funds typically go down when interest rates rise am I better to ladder individual (high quality, short term) bonds to minimize loss? There have been rate spikes before. Go check how bond funds performed during those previous rate spikes then come back and tell us how much th...
by AlohaJoe
Tue Dec 05, 2017 9:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond Risk question
Replies: 18
Views: 1747

Re: Bond Risk question

Also, here is the performance on bonds according to Vanguard: Historic risk/return (1926–2010) Average return 5.5% Best year 32.6% (1982) Worst year –8.1% (1969) Years with a loss 13 of 85 (15.3%) As Vanguard notes, those stats are based on corporate bonds. But you're not talking about a ladder of ...
by AlohaJoe
Tue Dec 05, 2017 3:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond Risk question
Replies: 18
Views: 1747

Re: Bond Risk question

Since the value of bond funds typically go down when interest rates rise am I better to ladder individual (high quality, short term) bonds to minimize loss? There have been rate spikes before. Go check how bond funds performed during those previous rate spikes then come back and tell us how much th...
by AlohaJoe
Mon Dec 04, 2017 11:30 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How does non-US BH invest?
Replies: 9
Views: 724

Re: How does non-US BH invest?

I mean the emerging market. I am from one of these countries! People do not invest. I also live in one of those countries and I would offer slightly different phrasing: People do not invest in public companies via the stock market. People certainly do invest. Property is far and away the #1 choice....
by AlohaJoe
Mon Dec 04, 2017 11:14 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: The 4% rule, Firecalc and Human Nature
Replies: 86
Views: 5962

Re: The 4% rule, Firecalc and Human Nature

It is a " planning guide". The Trinity authors said in their article "The word planning is emphasized because of the great uncertainties in the stock and bond markets. The Trinity authors didn't discover it. The person who did has no problems calling it "the 4% rule". If it is good enough for him, ...
by AlohaJoe
Mon Dec 04, 2017 10:43 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: The 4% rule, Firecalc and Human Nature
Replies: 86
Views: 5962

Re: The 4% rule, Firecalc and Human Nature

Also notice that this author refers to "the 4% number as a planning guide". I wish everyone would stop using the term "4% rule", because its is not a rule. Rule doesn't mean "a physical law of the universe that can never be broken". I mean, there's a reason why there are sayings in English "the exc...
by AlohaJoe
Mon Dec 04, 2017 9:35 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: The 4% rule, Firecalc and Human Nature
Replies: 86
Views: 5962

Re: The 4% rule, Firecalc and Human Nature

wrongfunds wrote:
Mon Dec 04, 2017 8:58 am
You should provide more information as to where and how you came to this conclusion.
I provided a link. You could have clicked on it.
by AlohaJoe
Sun Dec 03, 2017 10:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: The 4% rule, Firecalc and Human Nature
Replies: 86
Views: 5962

Re: The 4% rule, Firecalc and Human Nature

By definition, history includes all starting points including average and below average valuations, but the current combination of extremely high valuations for both stocks and bonds is unprecedented (or the "n" is extremely small). Returns depend on starting valuations, and high valuations also in...
by AlohaJoe
Sun Dec 03, 2017 8:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: The 4% rule, Firecalc and Human Nature
Replies: 86
Views: 5962

Re: The 4% rule, Firecalc and Human Nature

For us, I assume we will both spend our entire retirement years in a good long term care facility. Those costs are much higher than the optimistic assumption that we will spend at our current rates until we die. It is illuminating. I am suspecting those numbers would be about $500K per year for the...
by AlohaJoe
Sun Dec 03, 2017 8:37 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: A " Bond Tent" During the "Retirement Red Zone?"
Replies: 52
Views: 4683

Re: A " Bond Tent" During the "Retirement Red Zone?"

AlohaJoe, a couple of questions about your cases for the graphs. What withdrawal rate were you using for those case? Also, what withdrawal strategy was assumed (ie equal withdrawal from stocks and bonds at all times or bonds only during downturn or ??)? Are you saying those things have an effect on...
by AlohaJoe
Sun Dec 03, 2017 6:09 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Philanthropy and related issues
Replies: 50
Views: 3341

Re: Philanthropy and related issues

I have yet to see any posts by the financially fortunate people here about donating some of their wealth to charity or other non-profit causes. It seems to be more of a 'do I have enough to retire' even when the OP has millions of dollars!!! This board is for "investing advice inspired by John Bogl...
by AlohaJoe
Sun Dec 03, 2017 5:42 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Card declined - blocked country
Replies: 49
Views: 3171

Re: Card declined - blocked country

A random google turns up one bank's listed of blocked countries: https://www.alabamacu.com/FAQs/ID-Theft-Protection/Blocked-Countries-for-MasterCard-Transactions. I don't know what kind of cards they issue, but blocking a chip-and-pin card for in-person transaction just don't makes sense. I'm not a...
by AlohaJoe
Sun Dec 03, 2017 5:03 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Card declined - blocked country
Replies: 49
Views: 3171

Re: Card declined - blocked country

Anyone know what's going on? Your credit card company told you what's going on...not really sure what more you're looking for? This is the 1st I've heard of a whole country being blocked It has happened to me several times. especially a well-respected country like UAE (with cities like Dubai, which...
by AlohaJoe
Sun Dec 03, 2017 3:44 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: A " Bond Tent" During the "Retirement Red Zone?"
Replies: 52
Views: 4683

Re: A " Bond Tent" During the "Retirement Red Zone?"

Any comments or thoughts on this subject are greatly appreciated. I think it probably doesn't actually work in the real world, though it may have behavioural benefits. The upside of a bond tent can be split into two parts. How it helps before retirement and how it helps after retirement. For the po...
by AlohaJoe
Fri Dec 01, 2017 10:26 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: The College Bubble - investment opportunities after the collapse?
Replies: 114
Views: 7782

Re: The College Bubble - investment opportunities after the collapse?

I dunno. Isn't perpetual wealth self-correcting over generations? Look at the Vanderbilts. Looking at the 2016 Forbes' richest families... 1. Walton family. Founder died a quarter century ago ago but I guess this still counts as "new" wealth? 2. Koch family. Conglomerate was founded by Fred Sr. Koc...
by AlohaJoe
Thu Nov 30, 2017 10:19 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Price of haircut?
Replies: 194
Views: 10437

Re: Price of haircut?

Luckywon wrote:
Thu Nov 30, 2017 9:49 pm
Interested in what others on this forum spend.

I'm 51, male, pay $50 plus $15 tip.
I pay $2 - $2.50, no tip.
by AlohaJoe
Thu Nov 30, 2017 8:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rational Optimism for Global Stock Returns?
Replies: 21
Views: 1857

Re: Rational Optimism for Global Stock Returns?

It is peculiar that we haven't had even a modest correction this year — and I don't have a clue what that's all about. Shiller originally became famous for his paper showing that since dividends don't have 20% volatility, it is crazy that stock prices should have 20% volatility. If someone uses the...
by AlohaJoe
Thu Nov 30, 2017 7:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rational Optimism for Global Stock Returns?
Replies: 21
Views: 1857

Re: Rational Optimism for Global Stock Returns?

I was always under the impression that a healthy market required more volatility and corrections to establish down-side support levels and provide an opportunity for new money to enter the market. It seems like an eternity since we've see a 10% correction. None of that is true. None of it even make...