Search found 3509 matches

by AlohaJoe
Tue Aug 14, 2018 9:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Importance of sequence of real returns for SWR, CAPE valuation, and Luck
Replies: 79
Views: 2578

Re: Importance of sequence of real returns for SWR, CAPE valuation, and Luck

2) How well has CAPE predicted returns AFTER Shiller first proposed it in 1988? Correlations aren't always the best thing to look at. CAPE's correlation has actually gone up but so has its forecast error. And forecast error is probably what people really care about. Out-of-sample forecasts made sin...
by AlohaJoe
Tue Aug 14, 2018 6:43 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: No one seems to have an answer - NIIT on Short Term Cap Gains
Replies: 7
Views: 415

Re: No one seems to have an answer - NIIT on Short Term Cap Gains

The IRS puts all the forms & instructions online making it pretty easy to check there and find answers to tax questions:

https://www.irs.gov/forms-pubs/about-form-8960

It says to use Form 1040 line 13. It doesn't say to use Schedule D line 15.
by AlohaJoe
Tue Aug 14, 2018 1:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 183
Views: 8925

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

Weren't the 10,000 other threads on international investing not enough for you?
by AlohaJoe
Mon Aug 13, 2018 11:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Importance of sequence of real returns for SWR, CAPE valuation, and Luck
Replies: 79
Views: 2578

Re: Importance of sequence of real returns for SWR, CAPE valuation, and Luck

CAPE was below it's mean and median for about 6 weeks in 2009. Maybe 8 weeks. That's a bit of an exaggeration. Looking at Shiller's spreadsheet, CAPE10 was below 16.5 from October 2008 to July 2009 and it was below 15.5 from November 2008 to April 2009. So anywhere from 6-10 months depending on whe...
by AlohaJoe
Mon Aug 13, 2018 11:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Importance of sequence of real returns for SWR, CAPE valuation, and Luck
Replies: 79
Views: 2578

Re: Importance of sequence of real returns for SWR, CAPE valuation, and Luck

But I doubt that anyone here would say "CAPE is at 10! I can have 6% withdrawals for the next 30 years without ever checking up on my portfolio's performance!" Along these lines, go back to 2009 when CAPE was actually below its mean & median and see if you can find a single post/blog/article from a...
by AlohaJoe
Mon Aug 13, 2018 8:18 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: If USPS runs at a loss, how can Junk mail subsidize First Class?
Replies: 6
Views: 997

Re: If USPS runs at a loss, how can Junk mail subsidize First Class?

Mass mailing doesn't subsidise first class (letter) mail. If that's what someone meant, they are mistaken. Mass mailing and first class (letter) mail subsidise parcel delivery. The basic idea is: if you have a monopoly then you have pricing power. So you can overcharge and subsidise the products whe...
by AlohaJoe
Mon Aug 13, 2018 7:21 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help needed understanding Global small cap risk
Replies: 6
Views: 304

Re: Help needed understanding Global small cap risk

My worry is that if U.S economy took a long prolonged nose dive would the index still remain heavily U.S as would it not just be repopulated with u.s companies that are in decline and now fall within the less than 2$Bill Market Cap. Presumably your fund is market cap weighted. If the US takes a pro...
by AlohaJoe
Mon Aug 13, 2018 7:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How can I use the Rising Equity Glide Path?
Replies: 52
Views: 2776

Re: How can I use the Rising Equity Glide Path?

From what I've read on the topic, the idea is to DECREASE equities a few years before retirement (my potential situation), to then increase again a few years after I retire. That is my understanding as well. However, I am uncertain about increasing equities after retirement. Does increasing the per...
by AlohaJoe
Sun Aug 12, 2018 11:26 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is your monthly expense really that stable or in reality, pretty volatile?
Replies: 46
Views: 3046

Re: Is your monthly expense really that stable or in reality, pretty volatile?

Questions : Does it ever happen to you during certain month where your expense just go way up and how do you generally think about managing your cash flow in this case? I presume retirees will have much stable expenses during later stage of life so my concern is mostly towards couples in their 30s ...
by AlohaJoe
Sun Aug 12, 2018 9:59 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: iORP Monte Carlo vs FireCalc
Replies: 8
Views: 818

Re: iORP Monte Carlo vs FireCalc

Now, I expect Monte Carlo is not the 'best' way to run this sim, since it assumes completely random returns from year to year. iORP doesn't actually assume completely random returns from year to year. It attempts to incorporate some kind of mean reversion or trend or something. Most likely you'll n...
by AlohaJoe
Sun Aug 12, 2018 9:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Total International MF/ETF Performance Difference
Replies: 2
Views: 289

Re: Vanguard Total International MF/ETF Performance Difference

Although I'm still confused why the Friday losses are -1.76 and one is -1.90 shouldn't those be closer? In addition to the point the other poster makes about differences between NAV.... The ETF's price is from 4:30pm. The mutual fund's price is set at something like 7pm or 9pm or whenever Vanguard ...
by AlohaJoe
Sun Aug 12, 2018 8:05 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: reliable online public forum
Replies: 24
Views: 1982

Re: reliable online public forum

JoeRetire wrote:
Sun Aug 12, 2018 6:13 am
What does "reliable" mean to you in this context?
Reliable means "at least one poster says what I want to hear and validates my pre-existing beliefs" :twisted:
by AlohaJoe
Sun Aug 12, 2018 7:39 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: ow much money I can give my son as a tax freegift
Replies: 7
Views: 1005

Re: ow much money I can give my son as a tax freegift

And I'm concerned if the Austrian government tax my son as an income when I send him money to buy home. thank you for advice My first advice would be for your adult son to figure this out for you. My second advice, if he can't figure it out on his own, is to call the ATO at 13 28 61 and ask them. T...
by AlohaJoe
Sun Aug 12, 2018 4:44 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: House Value & Mortgage as a Percentage of Net Worth
Replies: 67
Views: 4106

Re: House Value & Mortgage as a Percentage of Net Worth

There is no universal, so the question doesn't really make sense. Housing is just consumption. If one person decides to spend 30% on housing and 0% on, I dunno, whatever you decide to spend money on, then why is that a worse choice than someone who spends 20% on housing and 10% on vacations or child...
by AlohaJoe
Sat Aug 11, 2018 6:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jamie Dimon: Higher rates are coming
Replies: 42
Views: 6463

Re: Jamie Dimon: Higher rates are coming

If you're really worried about inflation, consider TIPS and I Bonds. Aren't I-Bonds currently returning negative real returns when you factor in taxes? Yes but it is a known (& relatively slight) loss. With nominal bonds and stocks you could lose 10% a year, just to inflation. You'll never lose 10%...
by AlohaJoe
Fri Aug 10, 2018 8:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Illiquidiity scenarios for Mutual Funds/ETFs
Replies: 21
Views: 1108

Re: Illiquidiity scenarios for Mutual Funds/ETFs

dpm321 wrote:
Fri Aug 10, 2018 8:01 am
Can it happen? Just look at what happened to the VIX ETFs not too long back.
XIV is the only thing that closed AFAIK.
It wasn't an ETF.
by AlohaJoe
Fri Aug 10, 2018 8:10 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Should I tell my family/friend that they are making a financial mistake?
Replies: 87
Views: 7557

Re: Should I tell my family/friend that they are making a financial mistake?

Do you give your friends parenting advice if you think they are about to make a mistake with their children? Do you give your friends religious advice if you think they are about to make a mistake with their immortal soul? Do you give your friends political advice if you think they are about to vote...
by AlohaJoe
Thu Aug 09, 2018 8:33 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 1024.99 for a book. Why?
Replies: 21
Views: 3230

Re: 1024.99 for a book. Why?

I was under the impression that most people had decided it was due to money laundering: http://mebfaber.com/2018/04/18/how-to-launder-money-with-amazon-aka-why-all-my-books-are-now-free/ https://techcrunch.com/2018/02/26/crooks-launder-money-using-real-and-fake-amazon-ebooks/ https://www.theguardian...
by AlohaJoe
Thu Aug 09, 2018 8:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: NYT: The Big, Dangerous Bubble in Corporate Debt
Replies: 18
Views: 3409

Re: NYT: The Big, Dangerous Bubble in Corporate Debt

Thoughts? Can any fixed income bankers here confirm / deny this trend? As an alternative viewpoint try: Time To Not Freak Out About Debt Again . (He covers household debt, corporate debt, and federal debt; scroll down to the corporate debt section.) Corporate leverage today is not materially differ...
by AlohaJoe
Thu Aug 09, 2018 5:47 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: When is a small etf too small?
Replies: 6
Views: 534

Re: When is a small etf too small?

I've bought & sold shares of ETFs equal to 10% - 20% of the daily volume without any issues. I probably wouldn't want to be doing that on a monthly basis but it is hard to imagine scenarios where that would happen. Even very low volume ETFs -- say 10,000 shares a day $30-80 a share -- works out to a...
by AlohaJoe
Wed Aug 08, 2018 10:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If it were March, 2000, would you still allocate 50% to Stocks?
Replies: 94
Views: 4151

Re: If it were March, 2000, would you still allocate 50% to Stocks?

I have a spreadsheet where I (sometimes) keep track of previous prognostications from scared investors. In January 2016 riptide said "Why buy now, why not wait until the market really crashes??". Markets are up 61% since then. In April 2017 etf_gaucho asked "Moving to a Lazy portfolio : Should I wai...
by AlohaJoe
Wed Aug 08, 2018 7:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Would buy and hold work if Japan's lost decade happens?
Replies: 64
Views: 7323

Re: Would buy and hold work if Japan's lost decade happens?

For example, from June 1988 to June 2018 (30 years), the inflation adjusted annual (real) return (in yen, so no currency changes affecting it) was 0.045% per year. So basically no growth. If you had been taking out 4% a year for a 30 year retirement, you would be out of money. There was a link in a...
by AlohaJoe
Wed Aug 08, 2018 10:38 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Rebalancing When Average Are Under or Over Market Prices(?)
Replies: 8
Views: 636

Re: Rebalancing When Average Are Under or Over Market Prices(?)

I don't understand what average price has to do with anything or why anyone should care whether it is higher or lower than the market? I think what you are trying to say is "do you still rebalance, even when doing so would generate capital gains taxes"? You'll probably that most people will Rebalanc...
by AlohaJoe
Wed Aug 08, 2018 12:05 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: 3 weeks in Australia
Replies: 21
Views: 1120

Re: 3 weeks in Australia

Between driving on the left, avoiding roos (think deer) While roos == deer is a decent rule of thumb for Americans they are actually quite different. Roos are substantially lighter -- especially since what people are mostly dealing with are wallabies and not roos 8-) -- which means they are much le...
by AlohaJoe
Tue Aug 07, 2018 8:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Would buy and hold work if Japan's lost decade happens?
Replies: 64
Views: 7323

Re: Would buy and hold work if Japan's lost decade happens?

It would be interesting to do a 30-year spreadsheet starting in 1988 to today, with $1,000 a month (or whatever) placed into the Nikkei. I think you'll find you actually would have been okay. I don't think many people would call it "okay". If you invested $1,000 a month ($12,000 a year, using 2016 ...
by AlohaJoe
Tue Aug 07, 2018 10:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Would buy and hold work if Japan's lost decade happens?
Replies: 64
Views: 7323

Re: Would buy and hold work if Japan's lost decade happens?

It would be interesting to do a 30-year spreadsheet starting in 1988 to today, with $1,000 a month (or whatever) placed into the Nikkei. I think you'll find you actually would have been okay. I don't think many people would call it "okay". If you invested $1,000 a month ($12,000 a year, using 2016 ...
by AlohaJoe
Tue Aug 07, 2018 5:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Age in Bonds" fails almost everyone
Replies: 217
Views: 12537

Re: "Age in Bonds" fails almost everyone

"Own your age in bonds" is repeated so often as conventional wisdom that I'm not sure many investors stop and appreciate just how bad this piece of advice is. In a slight defense of "age in bonds", it is meant to include the value of your Social Security in the bonds part. Bogle -- which is how bas...
by AlohaJoe
Mon Aug 06, 2018 11:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bankruptcy rising for older Americans
Replies: 4
Views: 869

Re: Bankruptcy rising for older Americans

Appreciate any additional thoughts on actionable issues... Also see this response on how the NYT article is "not very good": https://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2018/08/just-stop-it-the-elderly-are-doing-fine/ Something happened very broadly during the mid-80s and mid-90s, and whatever it was af...
by AlohaJoe
Mon Aug 06, 2018 9:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jamie Dimon: Higher rates are coming
Replies: 42
Views: 6463

Re: Jamie Dimon: Higher rates are coming

JPMorgan Chase & Co. Chief Executive Officer Jamie Dimon says the U.S. should be prepared to deal with higher interest rates, including the benchmark 10-year bond yield at 5% or higher. “I think rates should be 4 percent today,” Jamie said Saturday at the Aspen Institute’s 25th Annual Summer Celebr...
by AlohaJoe
Mon Aug 06, 2018 9:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Would buy and hold work if Japan's lost decade happens?
Replies: 64
Views: 7323

Re: Would buy and hold work if Japan's lost decade happens?

The problem is that the U.S. is such a dominant market, that if it falters, the rest of the world is likely to falter as well. Japan is a much smaller market on a relative basis. Er? This shows a lack of understanding of what Japan was like in the 1980s. By 1989 Japan made up 45% of the global mark...
by AlohaJoe
Mon Aug 06, 2018 5:53 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help with rebalancing
Replies: 10
Views: 772

Re: Help with rebalancing

I've never used Personal Capital. But it looks like it is mixing up some categories, which is adding to your confusion. VEIEX and VTSNX can't be mid-cap. Mid-cap means "US stocks mid-cap". In any case, you just need to create a spreadsheet if really care about the details. But I reckon that most peo...
by AlohaJoe
Sun Aug 05, 2018 10:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Would buy and hold work if Japan's lost decade happens?
Replies: 64
Views: 7323

Re: Would buy and hold work if Japan's lost decade happens?

I was reading about Japan's lost decade, and looking at its current stock market prices, it seems like the market has still not recovered to its peak. Would that mean someone who was half way into his career would have lost most of the gains after crash and never recovered those? Like almost all di...
by AlohaJoe
Sun Aug 05, 2018 10:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The stock market is shrinking.
Replies: 68
Views: 7105

Re: The stock market is shrinking.

So it seems to me this is the key question w/r/t public vs private equity: Does the shrinking number of public equities mean that an investor only invested in public equities would be missing out on an important engine of future US economic growth? If the answer is yes, this implies that an investo...
by AlohaJoe
Sun Aug 05, 2018 9:38 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: "Skin in the game"
Replies: 105
Views: 6830

Re: "Skin in the game"

This is why I plan on sending my children to a private elementary school but making them work to pay the tuition themselves.
by AlohaJoe
Sun Aug 05, 2018 2:20 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Ten days in Australia
Replies: 17
Views: 1294

Re: Ten days in Australia

Whether you rent a car depends on what you're doing. Australia is the same size America, so without specific details it is hard to say. Since you have family there, when you asked them about renting a car, what did they say? The Sydney metro area is approximately the size of Connecticut. There's a b...
by AlohaJoe
Sat Aug 04, 2018 9:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 4% rule .. but when?
Replies: 35
Views: 4103

Re: 4% rule .. but when?

You are missing one piece: The study you are referring to specifically did not use 100% stocks, they used a 50/50 mix of stocks and bonds. This is not correct. Here is the study that "discovered" the 4% rule: http://www.retailinvestor.org/pdf/Bengen1.pdf It didn't (only) use 50/50. Figure 2 on page...
by AlohaJoe
Thu Aug 02, 2018 9:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Interactive Brokers Stock Lending Yield for ICSH and SHV
Replies: 8
Views: 565

Re: Interactive Brokers Stock Lending Yield for ICSH and SHV

I made $222 last month on security lending. The rates were highest on REET (10.88% - 11.64%) and RZV (11.46% - 11.68%). Most days ICSH was lent with 1.7% rate... Yeah who would want to short a short duration fund paying such high borrow fee ..I wonder... I don't think most securities lending is done...
by AlohaJoe
Thu Aug 02, 2018 8:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will dividend spending only portfolio last forever ?
Replies: 90
Views: 5603

Re: Will dividend spending only portfolio last forever ?

If you look at your chart the decline in dividend yield has coincided with the increase in value, so the dollar value is still constant or increasing ( except for extreme circumstances) No, the dollar value is not constant or increasing. This is the actual inflation-adjusted monthly cashflow for 3 ...
by AlohaJoe
Thu Aug 02, 2018 8:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will dividend spending only portfolio last forever ?
Replies: 90
Views: 5603

Re: Will dividend spending only portfolio last forever ?

If somebody is able to plan their expenses in retirement to only spend dividends , then wouldn’t that portfolio last forever?(except for truly extreme circumstances). I know that the emphasis on this forum is on total returns, but dividend spending only maybe a way to enforce discipline on spending...
by AlohaJoe
Thu Aug 02, 2018 10:34 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: weekender bag?
Replies: 30
Views: 2512

Re: weekender bag?

by AlohaJoe
Thu Aug 02, 2018 9:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 4% rule .. but when?
Replies: 35
Views: 4103

Re: 4% rule .. but when?

You are missing one piece: The study you are referring to specifically did not use 100% stocks, they used a 50/50 mix of stocks and bonds. This is not correct. Here is the study that "discovered" the 4% rule: http://www.retailinvestor.org/pdf/Bengen1.pdf It didn't (only) use 50/50. Figure 2 on page...
by AlohaJoe
Thu Aug 02, 2018 6:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 4% rule .. but when?
Replies: 35
Views: 4103

Re: 4% rule .. but when?

Why 4% rule applies to the $ at retirment. Because the guy who wrote an article in 1994 did it that way. Shouldn't be some average of the past few years, for instance? And shouldn't it be adptative to the performance of your funds in the future? Sure, feel free to do that. There's no retirement pol...
by AlohaJoe
Tue Jul 31, 2018 11:12 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: what is the penalty for not paying quarterly tax?
Replies: 7
Views: 1187

Re: what is the penalty for not paying quarterly tax?

I typed "what is the penalty for not paying quarterly taxes" into Google and found the answer pretty easily. Have you tried searching?
by AlohaJoe
Tue Jul 31, 2018 10:56 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: RMD option online at WellsTrade
Replies: 7
Views: 315

Re: RMD option online at WellsTrade

Does WellsTrade have a option to do RMD service online like Vanguard does? Or has anyone had to do RMDs with WellsTrade? Seems like you have to call Wells for everything. This was the top result when I used Google: https://www.wellsfargofunds.com/assets/edocs/form/ira-distribution-request.pdf I ass...
by AlohaJoe
Tue Jul 31, 2018 10:54 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: RMD option online at WellsTrade
Replies: 7
Views: 315

Re: RMD option online at WellsTrade

livesoft wrote:
Tue Jul 31, 2018 10:50 am
I rarely call WellsTrade, but when I do I always get superb competent service even better than bogleheads.org. :)
Some people are terrified of the phone, even though it would get them the answers they seek quicker & more definitively.
by AlohaJoe
Tue Jul 31, 2018 10:41 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Which Vanguard fund is best to tilt to SCV?
Replies: 16
Views: 994

Re: Which Vanguard fund is best to tilt to SCV?

Be careful. That comparison has three different start dates, so it's not really an apples-to-apples comparison. True, I hadn't noticed that when I did my quick check. But VBR still beats VIOV in the recent history, too. Since 2017 (a short time, but stick with me), it wins 0.40-0.25. Since 2016: VB...
by AlohaJoe
Tue Jul 31, 2018 10:27 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Which Vanguard fund is best to tilt to SCV?
Replies: 16
Views: 994

Re: Which Vanguard fund is best to tilt to SCV?

Sticking just with Vanguard funds, the answer is "nobody knows". Or maybe more correctly: "nobody agrees". Let's take 3 of the ones mentioned above, VIOV, VBR, and VTMSX. Here are their actual factor regressions: https://i.imgur.com/wPCLcXk.png?1 VIOV clearly has the best small factor exposure (but ...
by AlohaJoe
Tue Jul 31, 2018 2:28 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 88 Year old IRAs are in VBTLX
Replies: 13
Views: 1502

Re: 88 Year old IRAs are in VBTLX

I personally would not be investing in a bond fund with an average duration longer than the time period for which I'll need to money (unless this would fit into a legacy plan of some sort). This isn't unique to being 88, but if you think you'll need the money in a shorter period of time, you might ...
by AlohaJoe
Mon Jul 30, 2018 8:37 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Firecalc Says No Benefit to a Higher Equity Asset Allocation??
Replies: 47
Views: 4477

Re: Firecalc Says No Benefit to a Higher Equity Asset Allocation??

Where does this data come from and what years does it come from? I haven't seen any global portfolios (not to say they are not out there) that cover the great depression. It comes from the Dimson-Marsh-Staunton database of global bond & equity data that has been around since 2002. It covers the per...