Search found 2697 matches

by AlohaJoe
Thu Jan 18, 2018 2:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?
Replies: 337
Views: 30583

Re: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?

With that background, it seems entirely realistic to me that equity returns in the 80s and 90s could have been lower than they were--easily by 1 or 2 percent per year--and we would still call them great decades to be an investor. Inflation could have settled into the 3-4 percent range than the 2-3 ...
by AlohaJoe
Thu Jan 18, 2018 12:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?
Replies: 337
Views: 30583

Re: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?

Second, nobody had a pot of money that they put into the market on the peak of the Nikkei and then retired on it. They were investing since they were 30 in 1959 (age 60 in 1989) or even for early retirees since 1969 when they were 30 (age 50 in 1989). They got the amazing runup during that time tha...
by AlohaJoe
Wed Jan 17, 2018 9:53 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Capital Gains 1 Day Short? Help?
Replies: 12
Views: 1189

Re: Capital Gains 1 Day Short? Help?

So am I really going to have to pay STCG over 1 day when my alternative is to hold the entire balance for another 6 months. Yes, you really have to pay short term capital gains. I have to believe this is somewhat common and there should be a solution to this. I doubt that many people have investmen...
by AlohaJoe
Wed Jan 17, 2018 7:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is a Stable Value fund just a Variable Annuity?
Replies: 25
Views: 1520

Re: Is a Stable Value fund just a Variable Annuity?

It's not any sort of annuity as far as I know. I'm just going based on some googling, which turned up Fabrozzi'a The Handbook of Stable Value Investments in the section on Legal Forms & Strcutures says "GICs are issued by life insurance companies and are typically formatted as group annuity contrac...
by AlohaJoe
Wed Jan 17, 2018 7:16 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is a Stable Value fund just a Variable Annuity?
Replies: 25
Views: 1520

Is a Stable Value fund just a Variable Annuity?

I have done some preliminary googling which tells me that a Stable Value fund is, in fact, just an annuity. But I feel like I'm missing something because my general impression is that Bogleheads are OK with Stable Value funds but Not OK with Annuities That Are Not SPIAs. Is it just that they have a ...
by AlohaJoe
Tue Jan 16, 2018 11:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bond Market
Replies: 30
Views: 2258

Re: Bond Market

I was watching Peter Schiff's video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=StYxb3hNqxY I'm trying to understand why he is saying the Bond Market is going to unravel? Peter Schiff is saying that because he's a crazy, attention-seeking, ultra-pessimistic perma-bear whose predictions have been consistently ...
by AlohaJoe
Tue Jan 16, 2018 9:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emerging Markets equities went sideways for 50 years 1920-70
Replies: 24
Views: 2043

Re: Emerging Markets equities went sideways for 50 years 1920-70

And it was longer than that when you include the 1917 Communist takeover in Russia which made their stock market go to zero. Why would you say this? I don't see anything in the link you provided that says this. And they say they are using Global Financial Data -- which already includes Russia's sto...
by AlohaJoe
Tue Jan 16, 2018 10:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: “Future US Equity Returns: A Best-Case Upper Limit”
Replies: 20
Views: 1648

Re: “Future US Equity Returns: A Best-Case Upper Limit”

Interesting article on future returns in equities seems to give credence to Jack's(and other's) take on future returns. What? How do you see that? One is saying 4% nominal and one is saying 4% real. Those aren't even in the same ballpark and this post disagrees strongly Bogle's take; it doesn't giv...
by AlohaJoe
Tue Jan 16, 2018 9:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A 4% move in the Dow and S&P in 12 days? Seems odd
Replies: 88
Views: 6419

Re: A 4% move in the Dow and S&P in 12 days? Seems odd

It happens all the time.

Instead of "struggling to recall" why not look at the actual data and tell us whether this is a two standard deviation event or not?
by AlohaJoe
Mon Jan 15, 2018 5:39 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Understanding the Great Recession Impact
Replies: 44
Views: 3280

Re: Understanding the Great Recession Impact

I talked to one couple, Barb and Chuck. He had been head of product development at McDonald’s MCD, +0.10% before he retired. He lost his nest egg in the 2008 crash and Barb did, too. I am having a hard time understanding how the recession could truly wipe out the savings of a couple like this. His ...
by AlohaJoe
Sun Jan 14, 2018 10:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A modified-Bogle approach to safe withdrawals
Replies: 7
Views: 1093

Re: A modified-Bogle approach to safe withdrawals

Bogle is currently predicting a real rate of return of 1.6% during the next decade (3.6% portfolios - 2% inflation). I've extended that prediction (my "modified-Bogle") for the length of my retirement. I hope he's wrong but don't relish betting against him. I have no problem betting against him. Hi...
by AlohaJoe
Sun Jan 14, 2018 8:40 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What unexpected emergencies require sizeable emergency cash funds available immediately in a checking account?
Replies: 69
Views: 5090

Re: What unexpected emergencies require sizeable emergency cash funds available immediately in a checking account?

Paying bribes. They certainly don't take credit cards or electronic bank transfers. Whether you can wait a few days to sell some of your portfolio and transfer money will depend on how important it is to get past the bribe at that exact moment. Most bribes are quite small -- after all, they know mos...
by AlohaJoe
Sun Jan 14, 2018 8:28 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Looking for a reasonably priced, safe international destination
Replies: 107
Views: 6130

Re: Looking for a reasonably priced, safe international destination

I live in the DC area (DCA, IAD, BWI). Have two young kids, 6 and 3. Have up to a week off. I only speak English. The trip will be first week of May. Wants: Safe for the family Not too expensive Outside the US I was thinking Iceland. Any other destinations that fit this bill? If you think Iceland i...
by AlohaJoe
Sun Jan 14, 2018 1:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Year 2000 retirees using the '8% rule' - Where are they now?
Replies: 40
Views: 6457

Re: Year 2000 retirees using the '8% rule' - Where are they now?

AThe point of all of this is... I have yet to se anything in a paper, plan or article that address the spending curve associated with an active while you can retirement. Actuarially based VPW doesn't do it [...] You bring up a very real problem with several of the withdrawal strategies, including t...
by AlohaJoe
Sat Jan 13, 2018 2:21 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Our 'cure' for emergency expenses
Replies: 63
Views: 6918

Re: Our 'cure' for emergency expenses

That sounds similar to what we do, except we know it as "envelope budgeting" with some envelopes being sinking funds for expected/irregular expenses (whether known like holiday gifts, or unknown like auto repairs and clothing). Instead of a spreadsheet, I use a personal financial app that does enve...
by AlohaJoe
Fri Jan 12, 2018 5:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Accelerated Bookbuild - who's informed and when? And what are the consequences?
Replies: 21
Views: 1067

Re: Accelerated Bookbuild - who's informed and when? And what are the consequences?

FYI, in the US this would be very illegal. No it isn't. Page 92 of United States Securities Law: A Practical Guide talks about exactly this, how it works, and what SEC regulations it follows. (Rule 144, Rule 144A, Section 4(2), etc) Page 55 of Investment Banking: A Guide to Underwriting and Advisor...
by AlohaJoe
Fri Jan 12, 2018 1:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shares Are Wildly Overpriced. But Bonds May Be Even Worse
Replies: 35
Views: 5640

Re: Shares Are Wildly Overpriced. But Bonds May Be Even Worse

What does the forum think? I think the article was written by the same James Mackintosh who wrote in November 10, 2010, "Equity returns will be poor for the next decade". CAGR since then has been 14.28%. The decade isn't quite up yet, by we're over 70% done with it. I think he's a journalist that h...
by AlohaJoe
Fri Jan 12, 2018 12:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Zimbabwe stock market acting strangely again
Replies: 15
Views: 1889

Re: Zimbabwe stock market acting strangely again

Having been to Zimbabwe, I would wonder about the sanity of anyone investing in their stock market. Where should a Zimbabwean citizen invest and how should they do it? What bank and brokerage should they open an account with? Most require you to submit a bank statement from a bank in a country that...
by AlohaJoe
Thu Jan 11, 2018 11:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Study: The Rate of Return on Everything, 1870-2015
Replies: 105
Views: 17537

Re: Study: The Rate of Return on Everything, 1870-2015

But if you buy and hold a broad stock index fund, you can keep turnover minimal. All of those broad stock index funds that were available in Italy, Portugal, and the Spain from 1870 to 1970....? They assume 7.7% costs of buying or selling real estate and 75bps cost of buying or selling stock, which...
by AlohaJoe
Thu Jan 11, 2018 11:42 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How much/little money to give kids in will so they continue to work
Replies: 95
Views: 8004

Re: How much/little money to give kids in will so they continue to work

Give them a dollar from the trust for every dollar they earn. I suppose that's one way to tell one's daughters they are never allowed to be a stay-at-home mom for their children or even just switch to part-time work.... Hey, don't forget house husbands! OP, I wonder if you're not overcomplicating t...
by AlohaJoe
Thu Jan 11, 2018 11:01 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How much/little money to give kids in will so they continue to work
Replies: 95
Views: 8004

Re: How much/little money to give kids in will so they continue to work

HomerJ wrote:
Thu Jan 11, 2018 8:45 pm
Give them a dollar from the trust for every dollar they earn.
I suppose that's one way to tell one's daughters they are never allowed to be a stay-at-home mom for their children or even just switch to part-time work....
by AlohaJoe
Thu Jan 11, 2018 10:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Chained CPI Impact
Replies: 8
Views: 912

Re: Chained CPI Impact

Bonnan wrote:
Thu Jan 11, 2018 10:15 pm
With the new tax bill revising how the CPI is calculated; will this impact the future performance of the VIPSX Inflation Protected Securities Fund?
Why would it?

The tax bill didn't revise how CPI is calculated.

It also didn't change how adjustments to TIPS are made.
by AlohaJoe
Thu Jan 11, 2018 7:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How many years of fixed income for Sequence of Return Risk
Replies: 26
Views: 1952

Re: How many years of fixed income for Sequence of Return Risk

My question is "How many years of fixed income would you set aside for relative "safety" ( I realize that in theory nothing is totally safe) if you increased you equity to between 30 and 35 percent. Would the market likely rebound within 10 years? This is what it was like with 10 years of bonds.......
by AlohaJoe
Thu Jan 11, 2018 7:25 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Buy bonds until market correction
Replies: 28
Views: 2330

Re: Buy bonds until market correction

The Wizard wrote:
Thu Jan 11, 2018 7:09 am
MiddleOfTheRoad wrote:
Thu Jan 11, 2018 6:11 am
AlohaJoe,
Wow. That is epic!
Thanks
Epic, yes, but way too many questions to be considered.
Some folks will encounter Analysis Paralysis with this.
Better, I think, is to have an all-weather AA that you simply live with, no questions with new money.
Yes, that was my point.
by AlohaJoe
Thu Jan 11, 2018 5:11 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Buy bonds until market correction
Replies: 28
Views: 2330

Re: Buy bonds until market correction

No, I wouldn't. Ok, but all or nothing probably isn't the right approach. If I came into an extra $10,000 this week, I'd likely put $6000 into stock funds and $4000 into bond-equivalent funds... Okay, here's a less glib reply. I wouldn't put it into 100% bonds or even 60/40 unless that was my desir...
by AlohaJoe
Wed Jan 10, 2018 8:56 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How much/little money to give kids in will so they continue to work
Replies: 95
Views: 8004

Re: How much/little money to give kids so they continue to work

What is the maximum a typical 25-year old could inherit without the money changing their work ethic? I don't think there is a maximum. If I look at the lists of "richest people in the world", a fair number of them inherited substantial wealth at a young age -- the Koch brothers, the Walton family, ...
by AlohaJoe
Wed Jan 10, 2018 9:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Accelerated Bookbuild - who's informed and when? And what are the consequences?
Replies: 21
Views: 1067

Re: Accelerated Bookbuild - who's informed and when? And what are the consequences?

Lauretta wrote:
Wed Jan 10, 2018 9:46 am
This process doesn't seem very ethical to me since [...]

What do you think?
I think markets don't care what is ethical, only what is legal.
by AlohaJoe
Wed Jan 10, 2018 8:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Running Maximum Withdrawal Percentage: Any data on this?
Replies: 26
Views: 1541

Re: Running Maximum Withdrawal Percentage: Any data on this?

9.2% https://medium.com/@justusjp/1921-was-the-best-year-to-retire-c26cf5da6b97 The question is different - what is the largest you could take out and still have been fine for 30 years no matter when you retired, rather than what year was best. I guess I'm confused then. What does the OP think the ...
by AlohaJoe
Wed Jan 10, 2018 12:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?
Replies: 337
Views: 30583

Re: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?

Except that in 1999 no one was saying have global cap weight. And very few were saying all U.S. portfolio would be subject to home country bias. That's what seems reasonable to you now in 2018. Four Pillors did not come out until 2002, after the market crash. Then people started saying, Oh, you hav...
by AlohaJoe
Tue Jan 09, 2018 10:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?
Replies: 337
Views: 30583

Re: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?

willthrill81....An interesting post. Might I suggest an ancillary analysis. You have shown that a 4% withdrawal looks to be successful for a retiree, circa 2000. Now the question I have is what would have been SafeMax for the same time period? Is that knowable? Can it even be estimated? It can't be...
by AlohaJoe
Tue Jan 09, 2018 3:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?
Replies: 337
Views: 30583

Re: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?

Wow. So what you are stipulating is that, companies should be able to pay out a 2% dividend no matter what, even if they economy is in the toilet.. No, I'm saying that it a well known that dividends are not as volatile as prices and you need to take both into account when thinking about total retur...
by AlohaJoe
Tue Jan 09, 2018 3:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?
Replies: 337
Views: 30583

Re: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?

What I would really be interested in, is a hypothetical 75% crash 1 year after retirement, bear market for 5 years, then a status quo 6.5% annual return after that. 6.5% returns after a 75% crash aren't "status quo". They represent a continuing decline. It is pretty easy to see why... Imagine start...
by AlohaJoe
Tue Jan 09, 2018 1:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?
Replies: 337
Views: 30583

Re: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?

And what are your longevity expectations? If you are hitting 83 and are still healthy (i.e. not obese, no cancer, diabetes, no cognitive decline, still mobile,no strokes,....) how much have your odds increased to living more than 12 years versus what they were 18 years ago? At age 65, for a single ...
by AlohaJoe
Mon Jan 08, 2018 11:31 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: FIRECALC Question
Replies: 12
Views: 1470

Re: FIRECALC Question

I see that FIRECALC uses 75% stocks/25% bonds. Is there anyway to try FIRECALC with different stock/bond AAs? I am curious if the 75/25 has the highest success rate? I don't plan to be more than 60/40 by retirement. Click "Your Portfolio" and type in any numbers you want. FWIW, cFIREsim is a better...
by AlohaJoe
Mon Jan 08, 2018 9:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?
Replies: 337
Views: 30583

Re: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?

protagonist wrote:
Mon Jan 08, 2018 9:24 pm
I'm curious, Joe, where you got those numbers....are they available via an online reference?
I made them myself; all I have is what I posted already, though.
by AlohaJoe
Mon Jan 08, 2018 9:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?
Replies: 337
Views: 30583

Re: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?

Anything could happen going forward, but it looks as though retirees who rigidly followed the '4% rule' will make it to the 30 year milestone. I wrote something similar a few months ago; I agree. To provide even more context & support https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/800/1*OIFLAAP0clK9VSRnr_efRw...
by AlohaJoe
Mon Jan 08, 2018 9:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogleheadish investing books in Australia?
Replies: 7
Views: 555

Re: Bogleheadish investing books in Australia?

I haven't read it myself but I've heard The Barefoot Investor by Scott Pape is good.
by AlohaJoe
Mon Jan 08, 2018 5:25 am
Forum: Forum Issues and Administration
Topic: Help me understand question-less financial status (e.g. "2 comma club") threads.
Replies: 175
Views: 8505

Re: Help me understand question-less financial status (e.g. "2 comma club") threads.

Speaking of social media, I should note that my secondary goal for this site has always been building a community [...] Many people find contributing to an online community intimidating. And that intimidation goes through the roof when they are being asked to contribute something that someone else ...
by AlohaJoe
Sun Jan 07, 2018 8:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Rearranging the Portfolio and Investing Big Chunk in the Current Market
Replies: 5
Views: 758

Re: Rearranging the Portfolio and Investing Big Chunk in the Current Market

1. Does the above plan make sense? Is it a fool's errand to time the market and should I just invest lump-sum? Yes, it is a fool's errand. That's okay, we are all fools sometimes. But I think spreading it out over 2 years is excessive. I would target more like 6-12 months if you're going to do it i...
by AlohaJoe
Sun Jan 07, 2018 7:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Memo to those who have won the game: it's time to quit playing
Replies: 210
Views: 17675

Re: Memo to those who have won the game: it's time to quit playing

Aloha Joe, I don’t understand your Alzheimer’s point. Are you saying we could live a lot longer than we expect and that our expenses much greater than we anticipate, so our need to take risk is potentially greater than we think? Yes. I'm saying that pretending you can accurately predict the next 20...
by AlohaJoe
Sun Jan 07, 2018 10:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Memo to those who have won the game: it's time to quit playing
Replies: 210
Views: 17675

Re: Memo to those who have won the game: it's time to quit playing

I'm amazed that these people know with certainty that they will never spend a decade in an assisted living home for people with Alzheimer's at a cost of $6,000 a month on top of all their other expenses that their spouse, who lives elsewhere, has. They can perfectly predict the future...but instead ...
by AlohaJoe
Sun Jan 07, 2018 9:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Asset Management: A systematic approach to Factor Investing by Andrew Ang
Replies: 4
Views: 413

Re: Asset Management: A systematic approach to Factor Investing by Andrew Ang

I've read it. I believe it is the single best volume on modern investment out there. It is an order of magnitude more dense, academic, and mathematic than any of Swedroe's books. I enjoyed it immensely but be aware that if you are not a professional money manager or an extremely enthusiastic amateu...
by AlohaJoe
Sun Jan 07, 2018 6:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Asset Management: A systematic approach to Factor Investing by Andrew Ang
Replies: 4
Views: 413

Re: Asset Management: A systematic approach to Factor Investing by Andrew Ang

I've read it. I believe it is the single best volume on modern investment out there. It is an order of magnitude more dense, academic, and mathematic than any of Swedroe's books. I enjoyed it immensely but be aware that if you are not a professional money manager or an extremely enthusiastic amateur...
by AlohaJoe
Sat Jan 06, 2018 10:51 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: When could I retire?
Replies: 8
Views: 1951

Re: When could I retire?

Annual gross income $37,000 Rental condo: Value $80000 (renting to my mom, $425/month) Rental condo: Value $220K (renting for $1525/month, stable) With an annual gross income of $37,000 and $23,400 of it coming from rental income, you only need to replace $13,600 a year. Social Security of $1,200/m...
by AlohaJoe
Sat Jan 06, 2018 9:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retire on dividends & pay taxes with principal?
Replies: 10
Views: 1260

Re: Retire on dividends & pay taxes with principal?

Dividends don't give you steady income. Why would you assume something crazy like that? Blue chip dividend tend to increase from year to year, correct... According to PortfolioVisualizer "living off dividends" would have meant going from $32,000 a year up to $57,000 and then down to $26,000 a year ...
by AlohaJoe
Sat Jan 06, 2018 6:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retire on dividends & pay taxes with principal?
Replies: 10
Views: 1260

Re: Retire on dividends & pay taxes with principal?

Dividends don't give you steady income. Why would you assume something crazy like that?
by AlohaJoe
Wed Jan 03, 2018 12:06 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard completely messed up my cost basis..big problem
Replies: 25
Views: 1577

Re: Vanguard completely messed up my cost basis..big problem

So the IRS has my accurate cost basis info? No, the IRS expects you to have it. You're the one filing out your tax return and signing it where it says, "Under penalty of perjury, I declare that I have examined this return and it accurately lists all amounts." The IRS doesn't care that your brokerag...