Search found 3159 matches

by AlohaJoe
Mon May 21, 2018 9:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Equal Weighting
Replies: 10
Views: 428

Re: Equal Weighting

What are the thoughts on equal weighting ?I cant seem to find much on it . I wrote a longer blog entry about equal-weighting: https://medium.com/@justusjp/the-magic-of-equal-weighted-portfolios-dac58e1e1da0 including talking Optimal Versus Naive Diversification: How Inefficient is the 1/N Portfolio...
by AlohaJoe
Mon May 21, 2018 9:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Book: Living off Your Money, by M. McClung (Prime Harvesting)]
Replies: 436
Views: 82444

Re: [Book: Living off Your Money, by M. McClung (Prime Harvesting)]

That 50/50 allocation does make for a much smoother ride. Joe Tomlinson has written a few articles in AdvisorPerspectives on smoothing withdrawals. These authors (Siegel & Waring) contended that withdrawals should adjust immediately for changes in the underlying portfolio and should not be smoothed...
by AlohaJoe
Sun May 20, 2018 11:22 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Re: done with Gmail
Replies: 74
Views: 6631

Re: done with Gmail

I was changing passwords with keepass - when there was a crash. Password took, but keepass doesn't have the password. Trying to get it unlocked has been like being a Kafka novel. Right now, they will be reviewing and decide in the next 5 days whether I will get my email back (it''s locked). You wil...
by AlohaJoe
Sun May 20, 2018 10:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Book: Living off Your Money, by M. McClung (Prime Harvesting)]
Replies: 436
Views: 82444

Re: [Book: Living off Your Money, by M. McClung (Prime Harvesting)]

VPW and Prime Harvesting are not comparable, one is a withdrawal strategy and one is not. You have to compare VPW to EM. Is there a good comparison of VPW vs EM (and/or ECM) somewhere? I was a bit surprised this long and informative thread did not look at that (maybe i missed it). Hmmm....looking b...
by AlohaJoe
Sun May 20, 2018 9:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Book: Living off Your Money, by M. McClung (Prime Harvesting)]
Replies: 436
Views: 82444

Re: [Book: Living off Your Money, by M. McClung (Prime Harvesting)]

This is where I start to fall apart. I am trying to figure out if a 60% tilt is really all that different from a 10% tilt, and from the looks of it, there really isn't much of a difference here. Of course there's a difference. Just look at the first part of the table where the difference between 60...
by AlohaJoe
Sun May 20, 2018 9:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Book: Living off Your Money, by M. McClung (Prime Harvesting)]
Replies: 436
Views: 82444

Re: [Book: Living off Your Money, by M. McClung (Prime Harvesting)]

Prime harvesting both lowers the initial withdrawal rates and the range of the initial rates in "tilts" are compressed at higher initial valuations. Prime Harvesting doesn't do either one of these things. Prime Harvesting has nothing to do with withdrawal rates. You are talking about EM or ECM. Pri...
by AlohaJoe
Sun May 20, 2018 8:42 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Difference in Emerging and Small Cap?
Replies: 4
Views: 247

Re: Difference in Emerging and Small Cap?

I have gone to google and can’t yet get a clear cut answer if there is a a specific or distinct difference in the two. I'm not entirely clear: are you asking what's the difference between Emerging Market and Small Cap? Here's a wiki entry on what Emerging Markets are: https://www.bogleheads.org/wik...
by AlohaJoe
Sun May 20, 2018 12:25 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Career planning in IT/software development when over 40
Replies: 42
Views: 3124

Re: Career planning in IT/software development when over 40

I think you mentioned PMP earlier. I'd avoid that like the plague. Current hotness is Agile - if you want to get in project mgmt you should be looking at scrum master training and the like. Waterfall is a bad word, and PMP is generally tied to the waterfall methodology. There doesn't seem to be a w...
by AlohaJoe
Sat May 19, 2018 8:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: No Need For Corp Bonds?
Replies: 38
Views: 3532

Re: Larry Swedroe: No Need For Corp Bonds?

I take this to mean that he doesn't have any direct evidence for data quality issues in the earlier years other than an "abnormally" high credit premium and Sharpe ratio. That is to say, his chief reason for doubting the data is that to him it looks too good. I imagine his judgement is sound, but.....
by AlohaJoe
Sat May 19, 2018 8:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond Yields and Federal Funds Rate
Replies: 27
Views: 2067

Re: Bond Yields and Federal Funds Rate

Enough "aberrations" in behavior relative to your model and should you really understand it as that? To add to this, the Federal Reserve themselves say that the Federal Funds Rate does not drive longer term bond yields & interest rates anymore. They've written dozens, maybe hundreds by now!, papers...
by AlohaJoe
Sat May 19, 2018 11:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond Yields and Federal Funds Rate
Replies: 27
Views: 2067

Re: Bond Yields and Federal Funds Rate

The FFR has about a .90 correlation with movements of market interest rates. The Federal Funds Rate had a correlation of 0.358 with 10 year Treasuries over the period 1983-2007. Over the subperiod 2001-2007 the correlation was even lower, 0.128. From the paper "Decoupling between the Federal Funds ...
by AlohaJoe
Sat May 19, 2018 4:08 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What’s your phone/internet bill?
Replies: 76
Views: 4345

Re: What’s your phone/internet bill?

teddytimtam wrote:
Sat May 19, 2018 3:44 am
Internet(75mbps)/Basic TV (13 channels) = $55/month
Phone bill = $110/month (4 lines)

AlohaJoe, that's incredibly low! Which phone provider are you using?
I use FPT for internet and Viettel for my mobile.

Not everyone on this forum lives in America.
by AlohaJoe
Sat May 19, 2018 2:33 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What’s your phone/internet bill?
Replies: 76
Views: 4345

Re: What’s your phone/internet bill?

My internet bill is $19 a month for 55Mbps fiber.
My phone bill is $3 a month which gets me 7GB/month of 4G.

I don't feel any need to try to lower either one.
by AlohaJoe
Sat May 19, 2018 12:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rob Arnott:index Investors Buy High, Sell Low
Replies: 35
Views: 3134

Re: Rob Arnott:index Investors Buy High, Sell Low

Aren't VG and the other large fund companies allowed to swap stocks between funds? Seems like that would take most of the wind out of the sails of people trying to front run the S&P500 index. Fair point. I don't know how much of an effect that has. Just looking at the most recent iShares Core MSCI ...
by AlohaJoe
Fri May 18, 2018 10:37 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Financial times: Wealthfront's experiment in risk parity has a rocky start
Replies: 14
Views: 1710

Re: Financial times: Wealthfront's experiment in risk parity has a rocky start

A couple of months is so short a time for comparing these funds that it is pointless. Get back to this in 10 years or so. In the article's defense, Wealthfront were the ones who claimed their strategy delivered superior results over short time frames. They had a table showing that over 6 and a half...
by AlohaJoe
Fri May 18, 2018 10:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buffett says Bonds are a terrible investment now. What should we invest in besides stocks?
Replies: 76
Views: 9222

Re: Buffett says Bonds are a terrible investment now. What should we invest in besides stocks?

Why do you listen to Buffet about bonds but ignore him about equities? Does he tell you to invest in things besides stocks? No, he doesn't.
by AlohaJoe
Fri May 18, 2018 9:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rob Arnott:index Investors Buy High, Sell Low
Replies: 35
Views: 3134

Re: Rob Arnott:index Investors Buy High, Sell Low

To me the ideal passive stock market fund would be one that never, ever trades. That's even better than an index fund that trades smartly. The only downside is a gradual loss of diversification, which is meaningless over a human lifetime. Why is that ideal? So it never bought Amazon or Facebook whe...
by AlohaJoe
Fri May 18, 2018 8:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rob Arnott:index Investors Buy High, Sell Low
Replies: 35
Views: 3134

Re: Rob Arnott:index Investors Buy High, Sell Low

Would you be thinking of "passive funds that are willing to accept a little tracking error" in general, or would you be thinking specifically of Dimensional Fund Advisors (DFA?) I ask because DFA is the only fund family I personally am aware of that does this. FWIW, Vanguard does this, too. Their n...
by AlohaJoe
Fri May 18, 2018 8:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Finding Rates for Inflation Indexed Annuities
Replies: 3
Views: 316

Re: Finding Rates for Inflation Indexed Annuities

I was just curious if there was a place I could look at how much that might theoretically cost to buy in an annuity without having to submit information and get a quote. Just type in your information at immediateannuities.com and get a quote. You're making a $375,000 decision and afraid that someon...
by AlohaJoe
Fri May 18, 2018 9:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: No Need For Corp Bonds?
Replies: 38
Views: 3532

Re: Larry Swedroe: No Need For Corp Bonds?

A bit buried in Kizer's paper is his fundamental claim that Ibbotson's corporate bond return data is wrong for from 1927 to the 1950s or 1960s and overstate returns by ~2% a year. Considering that that data is used for all kinds of historical backtesting, it would be interesting to see Ibbotson's re...
by AlohaJoe
Fri May 18, 2018 4:17 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Cash instead of bonds for 3-fund
Replies: 22
Views: 1964

Re: Cash instead of bonds for 3-fund

UpperNwGuy wrote:
Fri May 18, 2018 12:55 am
There is a market value for a brokered CD, is there not?
Hmmm, good point! I'm not actually sure how those work since I've never looked into them. But those probably do have a market, unlike bank CDs.
by AlohaJoe
Fri May 18, 2018 12:37 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Cash instead of bonds for 3-fund
Replies: 22
Views: 1964

Re: Cash instead of bonds for 3-fund

I have no personal experience with CDs, never having owned one, but if you owned a three or five year CD purchased a year ago, wouldn’t its market value also be down right now? If so, why invest in cash? There's no market for CDs, so there is no such thing as a "market value for CDs". Any given CD ...
by AlohaJoe
Fri May 18, 2018 12:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Challenge: guess the effect of rebalancing (by interval or bands) in 2008-2009
Replies: 35
Views: 3522

Re: Challenge: guess the effect of rebalancing (by interval or bands) in 2008-2009

lack_ey wrote:
Fri May 18, 2018 12:19 am
Do people only understand rebalancing as a kind of mantra
I think this is true not just for rebalancing but for many things in investing and life :happy Most of the time it kinda sorta mostly works.
by AlohaJoe
Thu May 17, 2018 8:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Cash instead of bonds for 3-fund
Replies: 22
Views: 1964

Re: Cash instead of bonds for 3-fund

Is this a terrible idea? No, it isn't a terrible idea. Many respected authors (such as William Bernstein) have suggested that you should only have short-term bonds. As you say, pithy quotes like "bonds are for safety" suggest that cash is perfectly fine and people need to come up with a good, nuanc...
by AlohaJoe
Thu May 17, 2018 8:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: more rotten service from Vanguard [ACH transfer, fund availability]
Replies: 26
Views: 3052

Re: more rotten service from Vanguard [ACH transfer, fund availability]

In this day & age of massive fraud and account hijacking, I'm always surprised people are upset about having to spend an extra 60 seconds proving their identity. Every time I've had a financial institution say "hm, this signature doesn't quite match the one we have on record, just a second" or "you ...
by AlohaJoe
Thu May 17, 2018 10:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Challenge: guess the effect of rebalancing (by interval or bands) in 2008-2009
Replies: 35
Views: 3522

Re: Challenge: guess the effect of rebalancing (by interval or bands) in 2008-2009

For #3 I'll pick c) Mostly on the basis that that is the "wrong" answer according to Conventional Wisdom™ (rebalancing is supposed to reduce risk; volatility is risk; the one where you don't rebalance should have the highest risk & volatility) and you probably wouldn't be posting this if it were sim...
by AlohaJoe
Thu May 17, 2018 9:54 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is Vanguard's Tax Managed Balanced Fund (VTMFX) truly passive/Index??
Replies: 16
Views: 1116

Re: Is Vanguard's Tax Managed Balanced Fund (VTMBF) truly passive/Index??

1210sda wrote:
Thu May 17, 2018 9:50 am
Based on it's investment strategy, is VTMBF truly an Index/Passive fund??
Who said it was an index fund or passive? I don't see anyone claiming that.
by AlohaJoe
Wed May 16, 2018 11:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Thinking about self-managing my account
Replies: 25
Views: 1402

Re: Thinking about self-managing my account

Yes, this is a taxable account. Sounds like I need to simplify the bond side and go with one. I read about VBTLX and it looked like a good one. Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Fund. Vanguard Total Bond Market Index isn't appropriate for a taxable account. You should stick with tax-exempt funds. If...
by AlohaJoe
Wed May 16, 2018 10:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Thinking about self-managing my account
Replies: 25
Views: 1402

Re: Thinking about self-managing my account

The portfolio is basically fine. What follows is quibbling that likely won't make any real difference in the long run. The difference between 3 funds and 6 funds is inconsequential when it comes to managing your portfolio: both only take a few minutes a year. I don't understand the point of equal we...
by AlohaJoe
Wed May 16, 2018 10:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Thinking about self-managing my account
Replies: 25
Views: 1402

Re: Thinking about self-managing my account

I don't know what those tickers are. You might consider updating your post to spell them out to get more feedback.
by AlohaJoe
Wed May 16, 2018 10:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I’m still not a fan of international bond funds
Replies: 168
Views: 13068

Re: I’m still not a fan of international bond funds

I am curious how this asset class would respond during extend and deep periods of market trauma such as a financial crisis. The role of bonds in an investment portfolio is to provide safety and income. Investors need bonds the most during market stress. The question is would international bonds "do...
by AlohaJoe
Wed May 16, 2018 9:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I’m still not a fan of international bond funds
Replies: 168
Views: 13068

Re: I’m still not a fan of international bond funds

Unhedged international bond funds are terrible. You get currency volatility without the extra risk premium. I think it is overly dramatic to call them "terrible", though hedged is clearly better. One problem with judging bond returns (of most kinds, at least) is that both the return and the volatil...
by AlohaJoe
Wed May 16, 2018 9:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I’m still not a fan of international bond funds
Replies: 168
Views: 13068

Re: I’m still not a fan of international bond funds

lack_ey wrote: But haven't they determined that the cost of currency hedging is something like single digits (or was it low teens) basis points for developed currencies back to USD? I think you're overstating the costs here. That being the effective "spread" they cross to enter into the currency fo...
by AlohaJoe
Wed May 16, 2018 8:44 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Mortgage decision killing me
Replies: 52
Views: 6202

Re: Mortgage decision killing me

Personally I hate 30 year notes because early payments have such minuscule impact on principal. I'd go with the 15. I don't follow this. If you get a 15 year note on $250,000 at 4% then the monthly payments are $2,236. In the first month that breaks down as: $833 interest; $1,015 principal If you g...
by AlohaJoe
Tue May 15, 2018 11:30 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is it worth quitting my private-sector job and taking a government job so I can invest in the 457 account, too?
Replies: 15
Views: 1565

Re: Is it worth quitting my private-sector job and taking a government job so I can invest in the 457 account, too?

If I leave this job for a state government job, I'll almost certainly have to take a little bit of a pay cut, but then I'll get the 457 account. And with that, I can max out both a 401k and a 457 (as well as an HSA), putting me $18.5K ahead in terms of tax-deferred investing. What do you think? Wor...
by AlohaJoe
Tue May 15, 2018 10:35 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Junk Bond fund
Replies: 65
Views: 3581

Re: Vanguard Junk Bond fund

I assume we are talking about VWEHX? How did this fund hold up in 2008? Oh that's right, it dropped about 30% in the market crash. Now that is some stability right there..... VWEAX dropped the same amount a 60/40 portfolio did. Actually, it dropped slightly less. A 60/40 portfolio dropped -30.72% w...
by AlohaJoe
Tue May 15, 2018 1:46 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How can I clear $40-60,000/yr with $1,000,000 cash... Low Risk?
Replies: 71
Views: 10391

Re: How can I clear $40-60,000/yr with $1,000,000 cash... Low Risk?

No .. I do not have the expertise nor the time to assemble my own Bond Ladder. There are Bond Ladder ETF's like Bulletshares that does this. I was just posing the question to other BH's for advice on how to generate $40-60K from $1,000,000 ... trying to keep this question simple and direct Bulletsh...
by AlohaJoe
Tue May 15, 2018 12:03 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: US expat frustrations with Australian superannuation
Replies: 13
Views: 1900

Re: US expat frustrations with Australian superannuation

I looked at the First State Super website but can't seem to locate the specific list of funds, or information on them. Do you have a link? Click "Super" in the top menu. Select "Your investment options". Look at "Single asset options". For more details look at "Investments Member Booklet Supplement...
by AlohaJoe
Mon May 14, 2018 11:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: US expat frustrations with Australian superannuation
Replies: 13
Views: 1900

Re: US expat frustrations with Australian superannuation

The problem is more one of market design & investor education. In Canada, the banks dominate mutual fund distribution and so high costs and loads (or trailer commissions to distributors) are common. (I know a bit about the Canadian fund management industry, not much about the Australian). As you sa...
by AlohaJoe
Mon May 14, 2018 11:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How can I clear $40-60,000/yr with $1,000,000 cash... Low Risk?
Replies: 71
Views: 10391

Re: How can I clear $40-60,000/yr with $1,000,000 cash... Low Risk?

I'm thinking a laddered bond approach? ... but would REALLY appreciate other BH's who were/are in a similar financial situation's feedback. Have you looked at what bonds pay 4-6%? It is easy to log in to your broker and get a list of bonds. What bonds are have you researched and are considering for...
by AlohaJoe
Mon May 14, 2018 10:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Grant date of ISOs reset when company acquired?
Replies: 9
Views: 726

Re: Grant date of ISOs reset when company acquired?

If you exercised the ISO, then you should have all shares of stock now. Options are gone, converted to actual shares. I think your post terminology is crossing swords between option speak and stock speak. :wink: A share of stock would have an acquisition date. Is that what you mean by option date? ...
by AlohaJoe
Mon May 14, 2018 7:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Margin debt ratio
Replies: 39
Views: 2350

Re: Margin debt ratio

25%. At that level even if the market drops substantially I don't have to interrupt my life to worry about margin. It also means I still have a lot of liquidity if I need it suddenly for some reason. I'm currently at 7.6% margin debt but expect that go up to maybe 15% by the end of the year. I used...
by AlohaJoe
Sun May 13, 2018 11:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Withdrawal Rates – Part 24: Flexibility Myths vs. Reality
Replies: 72
Views: 7882

Re: Withdrawal Rates – Part 24: Flexibility Myths vs. Reality

Getting rich really isn't complicated: 1) Make a lot of money 2) Save a big chunk of it 3) Invest it in some reasonable manner 4) Protect it from financial catastrophes as best you can without doing anything crazy But how would we get to 13,280 posts and 3,148 posts respectively if we just kept it ...
by AlohaJoe
Sun May 13, 2018 11:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Withdrawal Rates – Part 24: Flexibility Myths vs. Reality
Replies: 72
Views: 7882

Re: Withdrawal Rates – Part 24: Flexibility Myths vs. Reality

I think I'm with Taylor on this one. I'm amazed this series has hit Part 24. I dunno, withdrawal rates are vastly more important than asset allocation but we see way more discussions of asset allocation around here. As if the difference between 50% international and 30% international is ever going ...
by AlohaJoe
Sun May 13, 2018 9:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Margin debt ratio
Replies: 39
Views: 2350

Re: Margin debt ratio

I know this is something frowned upon by many. So this is a question for those who have it. What do you consider a safe margin debt ratio of the debt to your total asset value? 25%. At that level even if the market drops substantially I don't have to interrupt my life to worry about margin. It also...
by AlohaJoe
Sun May 13, 2018 9:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Withdrawal Rates – Part 24: Flexibility Myths vs. Reality
Replies: 72
Views: 7882

Re: Withdrawal Rates – Part 24: Flexibility Myths vs. Reality

That said, I think the "myths" he is referring to are more ones he reads on various early retirement blogs as opposed to what we read on Bogleheads. Mr. Money Mustache once argued that if you had 25x a minimal level of expenses saved then you could retire in your 30s (e.g. https://www.mrmoneymustac...
by AlohaJoe
Sun May 13, 2018 8:31 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What do you buy in Asian food stores?
Replies: 98
Views: 8054

Re: What do you buy in Asian food stores?

This post is curious. I've reported it, though I admit I don't really understand it. It is a direct copy & paste of VictoriaF's post from October 2017: https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=11&t=229812&hilit=asian I can only assume this is some kind of spamming or prelude to spamming or s...
by AlohaJoe
Sat May 12, 2018 11:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Withdrawal Rates – Part 24: Flexibility Myths vs. Reality
Replies: 72
Views: 7882

Re: Withdrawal Rates – Part 24: Flexibility Myths vs. Reality

On adjusting the allocation at and during retirement, McClung suggests starting near 50/50 allocation and withdrawing from bonds first, which would progressively increase your stock exposure, thus different authors with the same conclusion. I'm not familiar with McClung. So he's advocating that all...
by AlohaJoe
Sat May 12, 2018 10:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retirement bonds
Replies: 44
Views: 3903

Re: Retirement bonds

They might be called 'bonds', but they would function very similarly to certain period annuities. As such, I don't really see much value in the proposal. The short op-ed (which let's face it, is just a fancy word for "blog post" and has no chance of coming to fruition in France) obviously doesn't g...
by AlohaJoe
Sat May 12, 2018 8:28 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Need Input on My Early Retirement Plan.....
Replies: 45
Views: 5305

Re: Need Input on My Early Retirement Plan.....

2) Having three years of living expenses in cash protect us, in large measure, from sequence of return risk 3 years of living expenses in cash doesn't really protect you from sequence of return risk. But if it helps you sleep better at night I guess it won't hurt given your massive portfolio. 3) Th...