Search found 4303 matches

by AlohaJoe
Sat Apr 20, 2019 6:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jason Zweig WSJ: You, Dear Investor,Are Patient, Prudent And Calm
Replies: 12
Views: 1804

Re: Jason Zweig WSJ: You, Dear Investor,Are Patient, Prudent And Calm

Let’s say you estimate on your adviser’s questionnaire that stocks will return 10% over the next year and an average of 9% annually over the next decade. Next, says Ms. Duke, you should set a range around each forecast, based on how certain you are. Make it narrow if you’re confident (say, from 8% ...
by AlohaJoe
Sat Apr 20, 2019 7:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: This could be the biggest risk that retirees face?
Replies: 117
Views: 7876

Re: This could be the biggest risk that retirees face?

I would personally be scared to death at seeing a declining balance even if I were past my accumulation years. I'm curious how you are going to avoid ever having a declining balance during decumulation. You can't hold any stocks, because they are guaranteed to decline and that would (apparently) ki...
by AlohaJoe
Fri Apr 19, 2019 10:37 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Fun with FIRECalc
Replies: 20
Views: 1441

Re: Fun with FIRECalc

TheTimeLord wrote:
Fri Apr 19, 2019 9:09 pm
I ran 50%, 60%, 70% and 75% and was quite surprised by the results.
I'm curious what you found surprising about the results?
by AlohaJoe
Fri Apr 19, 2019 10:04 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: For those who like travel, when did you retire and where are the most exciting places you travelled to?
Replies: 66
Views: 3747

Re: For those who like travel, when did you retire and where are the most exciting places you travelled to?

The title says everything. I'm not fully retired, but travel is the thing to which I want to retire. (Your financial situations may also help, if you don't mind). FWIW, I think this is an area where one of those ubiquitous travel books is far superior to asking on a forum, just because they will te...
by AlohaJoe
Fri Apr 19, 2019 9:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: This could be the biggest risk that retirees face?
Replies: 117
Views: 7876

Re: This could be the biggest risk that retirees face?

I'm not aware of any models that allow some sort of "if portfolio drops below by x%" (or some similar trigger), "then reduce spending by y% for z years", or some such. There are a million models. Coding up a new model is pretty straightforward. Here's what yours looks like. If the portfolio drops 1...
by AlohaJoe
Fri Apr 19, 2019 9:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Hedging against hyperinflation scenario
Replies: 47
Views: 2907

Re: Hedging against hyperinflation scenario

For the sake of clarity, or just to confirm my own understanding of what's being said about how lagging inflation adjustments might affect the potential usefulness of TIPS, wouldn't this specific problem be limited to TIPS coupon payments, as opposed to the return of inflation-adjusted principal at...
by AlohaJoe
Fri Apr 19, 2019 8:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Hedging against hyperinflation scenario
Replies: 47
Views: 2907

Re: Hedging against hyperinflation scenario

Were you able to sell your S&P shares from your Venezuelan brokerage prior to capital controls kicking in? What about the Venezuelan currency in your Venezuelan bank? You are correct if looking from the outside, it's different when it's your own host country, which is where my point focused on. I l...
by AlohaJoe
Fri Apr 19, 2019 9:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Hedging against hyperinflation scenario
Replies: 47
Views: 2907

Re: Hedging against hyperinflation scenario

The problem with trying to hedge against an economic extreme in your home country, is there would likely be capital controls put into place to prevent the flow of funds out of the country during the crisis... which leads to foreign retaliatory measures preventing moving money back in, possible conf...
by AlohaJoe
Fri Apr 19, 2019 8:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Hedging against hyperinflation scenario
Replies: 47
Views: 2907

Re: Hedging against hyperinflation scenario

Question: How does one hedge against hyperinflation scenario in his own country, assuming that he holds 50/50, or 3-fund portfolio? Traditional investments will not protect you in a true economic collapse scenario. This seems a strange claim to make, especially since traditional assets have done pe...
by AlohaJoe
Fri Apr 19, 2019 2:39 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Should I repatriate my cash?
Replies: 19
Views: 1618

Re: Should I repatriate my cash?

I’d move the money to the US if only to avoid FATCA filings and other tax reporting hassles. There is no such thing as FATCA filings (for individuals). The only thing you have to file is FBAR (now FinCEN 114), which has nothing to do with FATCA. FBAR comes from the 1970 Bank Secrecy Act. FBAR takes...
by AlohaJoe
Thu Apr 18, 2019 10:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Hedging against hyperinflation scenario
Replies: 47
Views: 2907

Re: Hedging against hyperinflation scenario

US TIPS hedge against US inflation (in a tax exempt account). Also US ibonds. These are a hedge against inflation, but begin to fail under Venezuelan levels of inflation. Yep, TIPS don't work very well in that kind of situation. (Plus you have to wonder if an government under that kind of strain wo...
by AlohaJoe
Thu Apr 18, 2019 9:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: This could be the biggest risk that retirees face?
Replies: 117
Views: 7876

Re: This could be the biggest risk that retirees face?

The greatest risk to retirees may be that you'll be too successful The statistics are pretty clear. The greatest risk to retirees is a spending shock. Not a stock market crash or inflation or living too long. There's about a 13% chance that at least one person in a couple will live to be 100. On th...
by AlohaJoe
Thu Apr 18, 2019 8:30 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Should I repatriate my cash?
Replies: 19
Views: 1618

Re: Should I repatriate my cash?

I’d move the money to the US if only to avoid FATCA filings and other tax reporting hassles. There is no such thing as FATCA filings (for individuals). The only thing you have to file is FBAR (now FinCEN 114), which has nothing to do with FATCA. FBAR comes from the 1970 Bank Secrecy Act. FBAR takes...
by AlohaJoe
Wed Apr 17, 2019 10:34 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Re-balancing "organically"
Replies: 12
Views: 1259

Re: Re-balancing "organically"

I see a lot of rebalancing threads. Curious why it's such a heated topic. Isn't it as simple as: I dunno. Have actually run any numbers? Seen if your theory actually works in the real world? (Anyway, I see rebalancing threads maybe once a month if that. Can't remember the last time anything "heated...
by AlohaJoe
Wed Apr 17, 2019 5:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market timers thread
Replies: 177
Views: 9777

Re: Market timers thread

Not getting out, but am thinking about Strategic Rebalancing if markets fall a great degree. Or perhaps, more likely, using such a strategy in retirement when sequence of return risk is a threat. ABSTRACT A mechanical rebalancing strategy, such as a monthly or quarterly reallocation towards fixed p...
by AlohaJoe
Wed Apr 17, 2019 3:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stocks will return about 4% annually over the next decade or so rather than the 10% average annual returns - John Bogle
Replies: 82
Views: 10009

Re: Stocks will return about 4% annually over the next decade or so rather than the 10% average annual returns - John Bo

Valuethinker wrote:
Wed Apr 17, 2019 3:50 am
Would I find this on his website?
Yep.

http://www.econ.yale.edu/~shiller/data.htm

Look for "alternative version of CAPE" on the page. He doesn't use any formatting so it is a bit hard to see what's what there.
by AlohaJoe
Wed Apr 17, 2019 2:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stocks will return about 4% annually over the next decade or so rather than the 10% average annual returns - John Bogle
Replies: 82
Views: 10009

Re: Stocks will return about 4% annually over the next decade or so rather than the 10% average annual returns - John Bo

I think Shiller recently did an alternative version of CAPE that takes buybacks into account. I believe it shows the market as more expensive than his original measure did. His new measure shows that it is less expensive. By the old measure, the market is 2.4 standard deviations above its long term...
by AlohaJoe
Tue Apr 16, 2019 8:45 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: In Laws Retirement Nest Egg
Replies: 154
Views: 13087

Re: In Laws Retirement Nest Egg

I'm not clear on what is "actionable" out of all of this? Is the OP going to somehow force them to go back to work? Is the OP going to sit down with the parents and...what, exactly? Tell them that he's not comfortable with their decision to retire without consulting him? Ask them to walk him through...
by AlohaJoe
Tue Apr 16, 2019 4:56 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Vanguard US or Australia
Replies: 7
Views: 471

Re: Vanguard US or Australia

So my question plainly is should I invest in US market and create 3 fund portfolio? Or are there benefits to investing in Australian market at the moment? Where you open your account has nothing to do with what you invest in. You can open your account in the US but invest 100% in Australian equitie...
by AlohaJoe
Tue Apr 16, 2019 2:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Peers Can Change Financial Behavior
Replies: 14
Views: 1742

Re: Larry Swedroe: Peers Can Change Financial Behavior

The closest to a control group I can think of is the county workers in Galveston, TX. The county opted out of Social Security in ~1981 and substituted a "privatized" alternative. Everyone who is a county worker has "skin in the game", and the reports I have read in the past are that their financial...
by AlohaJoe
Mon Apr 15, 2019 11:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What TIPS yield is equivalent to 4% SWR but guarantees 30 year portfolio survival?
Replies: 30
Views: 2764

Re: What TIPS yield is equivalent to 4% SWR but guarantees 30 year portfolio survival?

The only risks are The extra TIPS maturing in 2029 can't be reinvested at a 0% real yield or better to mature in 2030 - 2031. The extra TIPS maturing in 2032 can't be reinvested at a 0% real yield or better to mature in 2033 - 2036. The extra TIPS maturing in 2040 can't be sold at par or better in ...
by AlohaJoe
Mon Apr 15, 2019 9:39 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Do not use Personal Capital
Replies: 76
Views: 9544

Re: Do not use Personal Capital

without me giving explicit permission the Personal Capital Wealth Advisor had complete and unrestricted access to my account You did give them explicit permission. It is in the Terms of Use that you agreed to when you signed up. "A financial consultation is a personalized analysis of your financial...
by AlohaJoe
Mon Apr 15, 2019 10:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What TIPS yield is equivalent to 4% SWR but guarantees 30 year portfolio survival?
Replies: 30
Views: 2764

Re: What TIPS yield is equivalent to 4% SWR but guarantees 30 year portfolio survival?

Thanks...I have never used a spreadsheet, so that's an issue. If #cruncher ever runs the current yield scenario, I would guess the 'break-even' the way I am looking will be around 3.6%. The same functions -- PMT, NPER, and RATE -- also exist on every financial calculator ever made. Every platform -...
by AlohaJoe
Mon Apr 15, 2019 9:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Note on Curious Relations of Stock Market Capitalization and GDP
Replies: 5
Views: 545

Re: Note on Curious Relations of Stock Market Capitalization and GDP

As the World Bank says they have these data sets going back 50 years, it might be an interesting research project to plot how the correlation of CAP and GDP has evolved through part of the modern era. Historically, my sense is that developed countries have been much more highly “equitized” than eme...
by AlohaJoe
Mon Apr 15, 2019 9:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What TIPS yield is equivalent to 4% SWR but guarantees 30 year portfolio survival?
Replies: 30
Views: 2764

Re: What TIPS yield is equivalent to 4% SWR but guarantees 30 year portfolio survival?

Second question...if 1.31% is “equivalent” to 4% and 0% is “equivalent” to 3.33% SWR, how does one calculate the “equivalent” for various TIPS yield. For instance take 0.6% yield, what “SWR” will make this last 30 years? As dbr said, you can use the PMT spreadsheet function. The NPER function is th...
by AlohaJoe
Sun Apr 14, 2019 11:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What TIPS yield is equivalent to 4% SWR but guarantees 30 year portfolio survival?
Replies: 30
Views: 2764

Re: What TIPS yield is equivalent to 4% SWR but guarantees 30 year portfolio survival?

I don't think these numbers are accurate. I came up with 1% constant real return to make it through year 30 with nothing left last time I calculated. 1% constant real returns run out of money after 28.5 years; it doesn't last 30 years. If nothing else, it would be extremely surprising if the answer...
by AlohaJoe
Sun Apr 14, 2019 9:10 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Schwab international fund
Replies: 9
Views: 597

Re: Schwab international fund

However SWAGX is focused only on developed economies so not really VTIAX equivalent (which had both developed and emerging) Any better Schwab fund for this purpose? Here's all 14 Schwab international funds: https://www.schwabfunds.com/public/csim/home/products/product_finder?assetcriteria=internati...
by AlohaJoe
Sun Apr 14, 2019 8:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What TIPS yield is equivalent to 4% SWR but guarantees 30 year portfolio survival?
Replies: 30
Views: 2764

Re: What TIPS yield is equivalent to 4% SWR but guarantees 30 year portfolio survival?

I didn't quite follow all of your math or what it was trying to show...but I think it is a lot simpler than what you're doing. Use the RATE function in a spreadsheet =rate(30, -4, 100, 0, 1) =1.31% That's 1.31% real for the entire portfolio. Right now, TIPS are much lower than that, 0.95% at 30-year...
by AlohaJoe
Sun Apr 14, 2019 8:07 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard JUNK BOND FUND?
Replies: 4
Views: 482

Re: Vanguard JUNK BOND FUND?

What would be your opinion of substituting the Vanguard High Yield Corporate junk bond fund VWEHX or another high performance Vanguard Bond fund like VWESX, Long Term Investment Grade bond fund, instead of the Vanguard Total US Bond fund to make up the bond part of the Bogle theee fund portfolio. M...
by AlohaJoe
Sat Apr 13, 2019 11:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stocks will return about 4% annually over the next decade or so rather than the 10% average annual returns - John Bogle
Replies: 82
Views: 10009

Re: Stocks will return about 4% annually over the next decade or so rather than the 10% average annual returns - John Bo

What to do in this situation? I think the best thing to do in this situation is to see if "news" that is a year and a half old has already been discussed on Bogleheads, since it seems unlikely that somehow nobody has heard of this Bogle guy or what he said back in 2017. (How's his prediction turnin...
by AlohaJoe
Fri Apr 12, 2019 12:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Baby boomer vicious cycle crash
Replies: 63
Views: 5502

Re: Baby boomer vicious cycle crash

Is my fear overblown? Yes, your fear is overblown. (In general, I would avoid making half-baked theories based on superficial evidence about very complex topics that one is not an expert on. The real world is always more complex & complicated than any simple theory makes it out to be.) Read this 20...
by AlohaJoe
Thu Apr 11, 2019 6:32 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Do Australians with a home bias even need EM exposure? (high correlation)
Replies: 4
Views: 449

Re: Do Australians with a home bias even need EM exposure? (high correlation)

Was reading an very old but still very relevant thread when I came upon this post . Though Australia is certainly considered a developed market, I've read that its stock market is increasingly correlated with emerging markets, especially China and Asian emerging markets. With such a large proportio...
by AlohaJoe
Thu Apr 11, 2019 5:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are individual corporate bonds offered by brokerages?
Replies: 3
Views: 277

Re: Are individual corporate bonds offered by brokerages?

Virus4762 wrote:
Thu Apr 11, 2019 5:34 am
Has anyone here bought any individual corporate bonds? Are they even offered by brokerages?
Yes, they are offered by brokerages.
by AlohaJoe
Wed Apr 10, 2019 10:31 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Are Airport Lounges Worth the Money?
Replies: 95
Views: 8047

Re: Are Airport Lounges Worth the Money?

I have an Amex Platinum that comes with lounge access. $550/year, but I get $200 of airline credit, lounge access, and a 100,000 bonus mile sign up offer. If I renew it after this year it will be because of the lounges. I have been in great lounges and also just ok ones. In Johannesburg I was able ...
by AlohaJoe
Wed Apr 10, 2019 7:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Non-Transparent ETFs APPROVED!
Replies: 6
Views: 685

Re: Non-Transparent ETFs APPROVED!

Bizarre. So there are people that want to intra-day trade funds that are themselves internally actively traded by the managers... ? I think you meant "there are people who don't want capital gains distributions from their actively traded funds". If you had said that, you probably wouldn't find it a...
by AlohaJoe
Wed Apr 10, 2019 12:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fidelity rep confirms Zero funds are loss leaders (Jane Bryant Quinn)
Replies: 32
Views: 2986

Re: Fidelity rep confirms Zero funds are loss leaders (Jane Bryant Quinn)

Yup, but then again zero doesn't mean no income. Sure, but securities lending revenue is really only meaningful for small cap funds. Go ahead and look at other funds and you'll see that securities lending does not make a significant amount of money for most funds; substantially less than their expe...
by AlohaJoe
Wed Apr 10, 2019 12:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Growth More Popular Than Value?
Replies: 8
Views: 1225

Re: Growth More Popular Than Value?

David Jay wrote:
Tue Apr 09, 2019 8:29 pm
There you go, chase what’s popular. I’ll bet growth even backtests well over the last 5-10 years.
"Why not just invest 100% in Growth? Why bother with TSM or the whole S&P 500?" :twisted:
by AlohaJoe
Tue Apr 09, 2019 8:55 pm
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Best Superannuation Funds (Australia)
Replies: 6
Views: 390

Re: Best Superannuation Funds (Australia)

asset_chaos has also posted a few times on the subject

viewtopic.php?f=22&t=254870&p=4040606&h ... n#p4037431
by AlohaJoe
Tue Apr 09, 2019 8:53 pm
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Best Superannuation Funds (Australia)
Replies: 6
Views: 390

Re: Best Superannuation Funds (Australia)

The Bogleheads wiki has the answer to your question:https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Investi ... _Investing
by AlohaJoe
Tue Apr 09, 2019 8:16 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How Much Do You Pay For Haircut?
Replies: 115
Views: 6187

Re: How Much Do You Pay For Haircut?

I pay $1.70. No tip.
by AlohaJoe
Tue Apr 09, 2019 12:18 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How to plan for a range of long-term doomsday scenarios during a 50+-year retirement
Replies: 10
Views: 1200

Re: How to plan for a range of long-term doomsday scenarios during a 50+-year retirement

Since you seem to be scared of stocks, don't but any. There's no law saying you have to buy them.

Buy 50 or 60 years of TIPS and you don't have to worry about inflation or stock market crashes.

They do exactly what you claim to want, so I'm not sure why you're not using the obvious choice.
by AlohaJoe
Mon Apr 08, 2019 9:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why bond/muni funds price don't change?
Replies: 10
Views: 1090

Re: Why bond/muni funds price don't change?

I'm curious what is causing this. Is that because it's not open for trading every day? or it just happened to be traded at the same price for a few days? (Is this even possible?) Bonds trade very differently from stocks. First, they don't trade every day. A given bond might not even trade every wee...
by AlohaJoe
Mon Apr 08, 2019 9:33 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Ex-pat jobs for US citizens
Replies: 10
Views: 1306

Re: Ex-pat jobs for US citizens

How did you get into that? Were you given the assignment when you were already in the company? Recruited externally? External recruiter? I am interested in this but trying to learn more. My current company is not international. I've moved countries twice. Once I moved, then found a job. The second ...
by AlohaJoe
Mon Apr 08, 2019 8:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Indexing's share of trading is 1%, VG White Paper
Replies: 11
Views: 1334

Re: Indexing's share of trading is 1%, VG White Paper

AlphaLess wrote:
Mon Apr 08, 2019 8:16 pm
- 1% is NOT that small.
1% seems pretty small when the context is price discovery and arguments about indexing destroying capital markets.
by AlohaJoe
Mon Apr 08, 2019 8:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bengen Floor & Ceiling Withdrawal Method
Replies: 12
Views: 1406

Re: Bengen Floor & Ceiling Withdrawal Method

AlohaJoe....Great comment. I have learned much reading your 'take' on this topic. Are you familiar with Stanford's recent study on withdrawal strategies? I stumbled across this on 'The Retirement Manifesto' recently. In essence, my takeaway was the ideal seemed to be delaying SSA to 70, and use the...
by AlohaJoe
Mon Apr 08, 2019 6:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bengen Floor & Ceiling Withdrawal Method
Replies: 12
Views: 1406

Re: Bengen Floor & Ceiling Withdrawal Method

The Bengen Floor & Ceiling doesn't adjust for inflation, it's simply a constant percentage with guard rails. Sure it does. The floor & ceiling are adjusted for inflation every year. Bengen and others have mentioned various floors & ceilings but it appears the number Bengen used the most was a floor...
by AlohaJoe
Sun Apr 07, 2019 9:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bengen Floor & Ceiling Withdrawal Method
Replies: 12
Views: 1406

Re: Bengen Floor & Ceiling Withdrawal Method

It looks like a pretty good strategy and not sure why we don't hear more about it on this forum. You don't hear about it for the same reason you don't hear more about Gummi's "Sensible Withdrawals" or Ingliss's "Feel Free Withdrawals" or Stout & Mitchell's "Model 3" or Pye's "Retrenchment Rule" or ...
by AlohaJoe
Sun Apr 07, 2019 10:29 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: DFE etf yield (WisdomTree Europe SmallCap Dividend Fund)
Replies: 6
Views: 378

Re: DFE etf yield (WisdomTree Europe SmallCap Dividend Fund)

Hi I see the etf page for DFE https://www.wisdomtree.com/etfs/equity/dfe The yield here shows as 1.03% But when I see in yahoo or etrade the yield shows as 4.63% .Anyone knows why these are different or am i looking at wrong numbers. The WisdomTree website says that the Distribution Yield is 1.03%....
by AlohaJoe
Sun Apr 07, 2019 5:13 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: DFE etf yield (WisdomTree Europe SmallCap Dividend Fund)
Replies: 6
Views: 378

Re: DFE etf yield (WisdomTree Europe SmallCap Dividend Fund)

Hi I see the etf page for DFE https://www.wisdomtree.com/etfs/equity/dfe The yield here shows as 1.03% But when I see in yahoo or etrade the yield shows as 4.63% .Anyone knows why these are different or am i looking at wrong numbers. The WisdomTree website says that the Distribution Yield is 1.03%....
by AlohaJoe
Sat Apr 06, 2019 11:46 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Those that have an "Anti-Boglehead" investment account, what are your "risky" plays?
Replies: 92
Views: 6269

Re: Those that have an "Anti-Boglehead" investment account, what are your "risky" plays?

for me, it's tech and biotech. two of the riskier/riskiest plays. but, again, it's a small enough amount of money that i can look at it almost like gambling with a bit more upside. I'm not sure why you think tech is anti-Boglehead or risky. The average Boglehead will have the S&P 500/Total Stock Ma...