Search found 145 matches

by LawProf
Thu Apr 02, 2020 7:55 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Why are you NOT buying rental properties?
Replies: 1134
Views: 117320

Re: Why are you NOT buying rental properties?

I really want to hear an update from tomtoms.
by LawProf
Mon Mar 30, 2020 10:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market is irrational
Replies: 56
Views: 5081

Re: Market is irrational

Don't fight the Fed.
by LawProf
Tue Mar 24, 2020 12:26 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Why are you NOT buying rental properties?
Replies: 1134
Views: 117320

Re: Why are you NOT buying rental properties?

Anything from the landlords out there? I'm interested to see what is happening on the ground in terms of tenants making their payments. What are you asking? I mean this all basically started in March, and its still March... So March rent should have already been paid. Not much to report :confused I...
by LawProf
Mon Mar 23, 2020 7:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will the Dow ever see 29500 again?
Replies: 86
Views: 8784

Re: Will the Dow ever see 29500 again?

I'm still waiting for it to hit 36,000.
by LawProf
Mon Mar 23, 2020 4:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's Not Different This Time
Replies: 358
Views: 34809

Re: It's Not Different This Time

Boglehead Logic:

(1) No one knows nothing

(2) No one can predict the future

(3) This time is not different
by LawProf
Sun Mar 22, 2020 9:59 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Why are you NOT buying rental properties?
Replies: 1134
Views: 117320

Re: Why are you NOT buying rental properties?

Anything from the landlords out there? I'm interested to see what is happening on the ground in terms of tenants making their payments.
by LawProf
Sun Mar 22, 2020 5:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 4002
Views: 306639

Re: Coronavirus and the market

Still feels to me like people are underselling the scope of what is happening in terms of the effect on the market. The news is really, really bad and not all of it is baked in. Plus, (a) more people are getting nervous about things and will thus "panic" sell and (b) more people are going to be forc...
by LawProf
Sat Mar 21, 2020 5:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.
Replies: 1221
Views: 108480

Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

OP did the smart thing. Same thing I should have done if not listened to Boglehead brainless dogma. This time it actually was 100% (not 99%, 100%) clear what was going to happen once cases outside China started popping up and China went full lockdown. It's not brainless. It's good advice the vast, ...
by LawProf
Sat Mar 21, 2020 10:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is it really that bad?
Replies: 96
Views: 8178

Re: Is it really that bad?

I expect very bad news out of NYC in the next week.
by LawProf
Sat Mar 21, 2020 8:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.
Replies: 1221
Views: 108480

Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

OP did the smart thing. Same thing I should have done if not listened to Boglehead brainless dogma. This time it actually was 100% (not 99%, 100%) clear what was going to happen once cases outside China started popping up and China went full lockdown. It's not brainless. It's good advice the vast, ...
by LawProf
Sat Mar 21, 2020 8:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.
Replies: 1221
Views: 108480

Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

OP did the smart thing. Same thing I should have done if not listened to Boglehead brainless dogma. This time it actually was 100% (not 99%, 100%) clear what was going to happen once cases outside China started popping up and China went full lockdown. It's not brainless. It's good advice the vast, ...
by LawProf
Fri Mar 20, 2020 5:31 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Why are you NOT buying rental properties?
Replies: 1134
Views: 117320

Re: Why are you NOT buying rental properties?

Challenges in landlording: (1) Does mortgage relief apply to landlords? (2) The movement against evictions grows. Political risk tends to be an underappreciated risks of having tenants. (3) College students are demanding to be released from their leases. (4) Presumably real estate values are going t...
by LawProf
Wed Mar 18, 2020 4:07 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Why are you NOT buying rental properties?
Replies: 1134
Views: 117320

Re: Why are you NOT buying rental properties?

I really want to see how some of the assumptions on this thread play out in the current crisis.
by LawProf
Wed Mar 18, 2020 1:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why not liquidate?
Replies: 48
Views: 4455

Re: Why not liquidate?

If you're worried about losing more money, are convinced the market will go down, and will hate yourself if the market does exactly as you think it will do, sell. But don't sell as some type of cute market-timing maneuver.
by LawProf
Wed Mar 18, 2020 12:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 4002
Views: 306639

Re: Coronavirus and the market

Things are bad. Based on anecdotal evidence from friends, commercial tenants are walking out on leases, residential renters are calling property management companies to inform them they cannot pay rent, and mortgage payments are being missed. Whole industries are sick (airlines, tourism). Other indu...
by LawProf
Sun Mar 15, 2020 3:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 4002
Views: 306639

Re: Coronavirus and the market

Uk choosing different strategy to minimize economic and market dislocations:

https://marginalrevolution.com/marginal ... virus.html

It will be good for future situations to see how different strategies play out this time around.
by LawProf
Sun Mar 15, 2020 10:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Corona Virus = Black Swan, Book Recommendation
Replies: 127
Views: 8348

Re: Corona Virus = Black Swan, Book Recommendation

We're now getting into the potential Black Swan phase of this thing. Pandemics are foreseeable and a resulting stock crash from one, too. But the chain reactions of this thing are where the dangers now lie and what those chain reactions are, if any, still remain to be seen.
by LawProf
Sun Mar 15, 2020 10:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should people STOP investing in favor of boosting their emergency funds?
Replies: 83
Views: 5666

Re: Should people STOP investing in favor of boosting their emergency funds?

Times like this show why paying off a house can be a good decision, even if such a move is not economically-maximizing when markets keep going up and up. Having no debt is a nice cushion to weather storms like this, plus a paid off house serves as its own emergency fund via a HELOC.
by LawProf
Sat Mar 14, 2020 4:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 4002
Views: 306639

Re: Coronavirus and the market

There has been a lot of negative vibe regarding our car culture and single family suburban homes here in the USA. But there may be a silver lining these days. I imagine it is far easier for suburbanites to self isolate and certainly easier to independently commute to a testing site (once thy are es...
by LawProf
Sat Mar 14, 2020 10:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So what does shutting down the US economy for a few months look like?
Replies: 200
Views: 15310

Re: So what does shutting down the US economy for a few months look like?

Leverage works until it doesn't. The debt mindset in this country is out of control and magnifies all risk. Common threads around here: (a) should I pay off my house? or (b) can I afford x amount of house? No one-size fits all answer exists to these questions, but having a paid off house makes marke...
by LawProf
Fri Mar 13, 2020 7:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market Timing - Should we have seen this coming?
Replies: 67
Views: 3924

Re: Market Timing - Should we have seen this coming?

Yeah, you should’ve seen it coming. 1. I saw the way it moved by following news (anyone could have). 2. I read that Hong Kong and Japan closed schools (anyone could have). So I added 1 + 2 together and got 3. 3. I posted on February 27th that schools would close here (anyone could have). Now, that ...
by LawProf
Thu Mar 12, 2020 11:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 19464
Views: 2695806

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Brazil's president has the virus. Was with Trump last week. This is a worldwide pandemic, plenty of room still to fall. This is not yet known. Bolsonaro's press secretary has it. Bolsonaro is being tested. Hit my rebalance point so went back to 70/30. My bad. Some media outlets jumped the gun on Tw...
by LawProf
Thu Mar 12, 2020 11:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 19464
Views: 2695806

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Brazil's president has the virus. Was with Trump last week. This is a worldwide pandemic, plenty of room still to fall.
by LawProf
Thu Mar 12, 2020 10:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?
Replies: 573
Views: 38335

Re: Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?

Prediction: 40%. I think it could easily go lower, but I think the government will step in to buttress the market at some point. We live in a flat world now, and this virus threatens to seriously disrupt that. Centralization and interconnectivity provide great efficiencies and benefits, but they al...
by LawProf
Thu Mar 12, 2020 12:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 4002
Views: 306639

Re: Coronavirus and the market

this was one of the rare times when the data was obvious and NOT factored into the market for weeks. Some people read the situation and knew we were going down. good for them. This. Seemed completely obvious weeks ago. I moved everything to cash, only time I've sold equities in 20 years. It was one...
by LawProf
Wed Mar 11, 2020 9:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 4002
Views: 306639

Re: Coronavirus and the market

this was one of the rare times when the data was obvious and NOT factored into the market for weeks. Some people read the situation and knew we were going down. good for them. This. Seemed completely obvious weeks ago. I moved everything to cash, only time I've sold equities in 20 years. It was one...
by LawProf
Wed Mar 11, 2020 9:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 4002
Views: 306639

Re: Coronavirus and the market

this was one of the rare times when the data was obvious and NOT factored into the market for weeks. Some people read the situation and knew we were going down. good for them. This. Seemed completely obvious weeks ago. I moved everything to cash, only time I've sold equities in 20 years. It was one...
by LawProf
Wed Mar 11, 2020 8:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 4002
Views: 306639

Re: Coronavirus and the market

Call me an alarmist, but it seems to me this could actually cause a depression rather than a recession. If people can't work, shop, or leave their homes, how is the economy going to function? If money isn't flowing into the economy, how are employers going to make payroll, how are consumers going t...
by LawProf
Wed Mar 11, 2020 7:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 4002
Views: 306639

Re: Coronavirus and the market

Call me an alarmist, but it seems to me this could actually cause a depression rather than a recession. If people can't work, shop, or leave their homes, how is the economy going to function? If money isn't flowing into the economy, how are employers going to make payroll, how are consumers going t...
by LawProf
Wed Mar 11, 2020 5:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The end of cruise ships [cruise line stock prices]
Replies: 246
Views: 26328

Re: The end of cruise ships

I'd worry about bankruptcy risk. I'm rather naive and uneducated on such big corporate matters, but isn't bankruptcy actually a protection for shareholders? Isn't it basically telling bond and other debt holders, "Hey, sorry, but we can't pay. See ya later!"? I get it's not that simple... bankruptc...
by LawProf
Wed Mar 11, 2020 5:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The end of cruise ships [cruise line stock prices]
Replies: 246
Views: 26328

Re: The end of cruise ships

I'd worry about bankruptcy risk.
by LawProf
Wed Mar 11, 2020 11:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 4002
Views: 306639

Re: Coronavirus and the market

Merkel said 70% of Germans might get the virus. I think that would have to affect Europe's economy in a bad way and push markets everywhere down. and if 70% get it, 8/10 of them will be fine to work as their symptoms will resemble the common cold - if anything It’s a very small portion of the popul...
by LawProf
Wed Mar 11, 2020 9:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 4002
Views: 306639

Re: Coronavirus and the market

Merkel said 70% of Germans might get the virus. I think that would have to affect Europe's economy in a bad way and push markets everywhere down.
by LawProf
Tue Mar 10, 2020 4:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 19464
Views: 2695806

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

I’m beginning to think that the federal government will never allow us to have a bear market again, or at least die trying to prevent that.
by LawProf
Tue Mar 10, 2020 1:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 4002
Views: 306639

Re: Coronavirus and the market

Governor Cuomo creating a containment zone around New Rochelle with the assistance of the National Guard. That cannot be good for stocks. At some point they're going to close the trading floor, I imagine.
by LawProf
Mon Mar 09, 2020 7:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 19464
Views: 2695806

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

...Who knows? Maybe now it is overreacting rather than underreacting. Time will tell. +1 That is my bet. Mister Market comes to your door every day and offers you a different price for the same goods as yesterday and the day before, depending on his mood. He has bipolar syndrome, sometimes wildly o...
by LawProf
Sun Mar 08, 2020 11:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 4002
Views: 306639

Re: Coronavirus and the market

People are not panicking. A run on bottled waters and toilet papers -- no cost, common sense precautions that provide great upside should you have to stay at home for a couple of weeks -- is not panic. Governments around the world are panicking. But people in the U.S. are still, on average, pretty h...
by LawProf
Sat Mar 07, 2020 11:55 am
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 195779

Re: Coronavirus and the market

Went to our doctor to get some vitamins yesterday and saw huddled in the waiting room corner a mom with two kids. All wearing surgical masks, looking miserable, and they could not stop coughing :shock: Kept my distance, quickly got my stuff, got the heck out of there and bathed in Purell before get...
by LawProf
Fri Mar 06, 2020 10:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Toilet Paper Hoarders = Shoeshine boy stock tips?
Replies: 41
Views: 2782

Re: Toilet Paper Hoarders = Shoeshine boy stock tips?

One of the bigger economic ripples of COVID-19 is going to be people missing work...that means supplies we always take for granted might not be hitting the shelves with regularity. Toilet paper is just one of those items that sucks to be without when the time comes. Buying it in bulk now is possibl...
by LawProf
Fri Mar 06, 2020 8:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I once held a stock that went to zero
Replies: 24
Views: 2217

Re: I once held a stock that went to zero

Rosencrantz1 wrote:
Fri Mar 06, 2020 7:56 pm
LawProf wrote:
Fri Mar 06, 2020 6:54 pm
I once had a stock that went to zero
The market suffocated it with a pillow
I looked up and down
My money couldn't be found
And Jack Bogle became my new hero
Clever. I'll demonstrate my ignorance... it this some form of Haiku? :beer
Limerick. There once was a girl from Nantucket ...
by LawProf
Fri Mar 06, 2020 6:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I once held a stock that went to zero
Replies: 24
Views: 2217

Re: I once held a stock that went to zero

I once had a stock that went to zero
The market suffocated it with a pillow
I looked up and down
My money couldn't be found
And Jack Bogle became my new hero
by LawProf
Fri Mar 06, 2020 1:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 4002
Views: 306639

Re: Coronavirus and the market

A big reason for the market tanking is trust. When you have a leader in business ,gov’t, a school or whatever field, that is known to not tell the truth, it creates a huge problem when a crisis develops that needs real truthful information. Not great for dealing with one’s life savings. The market ...
by LawProf
Fri Mar 06, 2020 10:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 4002
Views: 306639

Re: Coronavirus and the market

EDV (Vanguard Long term Extended Dur Treasury) up almost 8% as I type this. :shock: Vglt up 5.76%. I think the panic is only now starting. The new few months will, unfortunately, be very interesting, and probably not good. I am not sure what is "Panic" and what is simply rational repricing of the e...
by LawProf
Thu Mar 05, 2020 11:20 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 195779

Re: Coronavirus and the market

Why do you say "Good Lord?" "It’s possible that COVID-19 will be similar to a bad flu year b ut there are a number of indications that it will be very much like the 1918 Flu Pandemic . To put that in perspective, the 1918 flu did not end civilization as we know it but it was the second-deadliest ev...
by LawProf
Thu Mar 05, 2020 6:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 4002
Views: 306639

Re: Coronavirus and the market

Market makers & traders, people that pay billions for the terminals, they have access to instant information with fast computers ready to execute orders in nano-seconds, to take advantage of any arbitrage opportunity that presents in a tiny fraction of time. You are comparing yourself to the same p...
by LawProf
Thu Mar 05, 2020 6:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 4002
Views: 306639

Re: Coronavirus and the market

Everything looks as if outcomes were expected after the fact. There are always many different possibilities, every day, millions of actions and events around the world, some of the expected outcomes turn out true, some of them don't. When our expectations matches the list of outcomes that came out ...
by LawProf
Thu Mar 05, 2020 5:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 4002
Views: 306639

Re: Coronavirus and the market

The answer is obvious if you know anything about the China and Chinese culture. I don't know anything about China and Chinese culture. What's the answer? Canceling Chinese New Year is like us canceling the Super Bowl, except much bigger. The same with Saudi Arabia shutting down travel to Mecca.
by LawProf
Thu Mar 05, 2020 5:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 4002
Views: 306639

Re: Coronavirus and the market

Everything looks as if outcomes were expected after the fact. There are always many different possibilities, every day, millions of actions and events around the world, some of the expected outcomes turn out true, some of them don't. When our expectations matches the list of outcomes that came out ...
by LawProf
Thu Mar 05, 2020 1:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 4002
Views: 306639

Re: Coronavirus and the market

Everything looks as if outcomes were expected after the fact. There are always many different possibilities, every day, millions of actions and events around the world, some of the expected outcomes turn out true, some of them don't. When our expectations matches the list of outcomes that came out ...
by LawProf
Thu Mar 05, 2020 9:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 4002
Views: 306639

Re: Coronavirus and the market

Number of new cases per day in S Korea march 1…1062 march 2…600 march 3…516 march 4…438 march 5…322 Except the rest of the world has not been as aggressive as South Korea and China in dealing with the virus on the front-end. That's the worry and enough people still don't believe it, as evidenced by...