Search found 108 matches

by ulrichw
Wed Apr 01, 2020 6:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Covered calls, secure puts - when are they used?
Replies: 9
Views: 515

Re: Covered calls, secure puts - when are they used?

I think you should let us know what you understand about them first before people give you an entire explanation - that way you won't get yet another explanation that you don't understand. I'll answer the "when" part of your question: You use covered calls when you're holding a stock and don't expec...
by ulrichw
Tue Mar 31, 2020 7:35 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: First world problem , large monthly cash flow, what would you do?
Replies: 15
Views: 2208

Re: First world problem , large monthly cash flow, what would you do?

Given that you already have an emergency fund, putting the money to work in a taxable investment account is exactly what I would do. Even if the market goes down from here some more (and I do expect it will), you'll effectively be DCA'ing into the dip and hopefully up during the recovery, too. I do ...
by ulrichw
Tue Mar 31, 2020 7:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Last few days stocks have risen - but rally lacks conviction
Replies: 49
Views: 3403

Re: Last few days stocks have risen - but rally lacks conviction

How does one detect conviction in market movements? It's interesting that OP hasn't responded to your comment or others' responses to it, but I feel the point was made quite simply in the first sentence of his post: Last few days stocks have risen - but the volume is low. The rally lacks conviction...
by ulrichw
Mon Mar 30, 2020 2:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market will be at all time high by year-end
Replies: 121
Views: 11677

Re: Market will be at all time high by year-end

Keep your eye on the number of US cases. Up until 2 days ago, we were on a exponential trendline that would have seen tens of millions infected in April. Over the last 2 days, we have deviated significantly downward from that curve. Distancing/isolation measures implemented ~2 weeks ago are startin...
by ulrichw
Mon Mar 23, 2020 12:57 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Selling 100% stocks on a bounce
Replies: 207
Views: 17102

Re: Selling 100% stocks on a bounce

[...] When I say that I was not prepared for a depression, I mean that I am not prepared for a free fall in stock prices of more than 60%. Risk tolerance is based on how much you can tolerate in losses. Being prepared for a bear market means that I can tolerate the loss in stocks from peak to troug...
by ulrichw
Sun Mar 22, 2020 11:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P500 and Dow Futures Hit Limit Down After Reaching 5% Down Limit for Monday Open
Replies: 155
Views: 13234

Re: S&P500 and Dow Futures Halted After Reaching 5% Down Limit for Monday Open

[...] TMK, the reason that store shelves are empty is not because deliveries aren't being made, because they are. People are just grabbing as much as they possibly can when items become available. But such things can quickly turn into a self-fulfilling prophecy, as we've already seen happen with to...
by ulrichw
Sun Mar 22, 2020 11:06 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Selling 100% stocks on a bounce
Replies: 207
Views: 17102

Re: Selling 100% stocks on a bounce

[...] What I see today is very different from what I saw back in 2008. [...] You're right about that - I remember 2008. A total collapse of financial markets. Major financial houses with household names going out of business. Insurance industry collapsed. Thousands and thousands of foreclosures - p...
by ulrichw
Sun Mar 22, 2020 8:16 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Upside down car: advice [car loan]
Replies: 57
Views: 2919

Re: Upside down car: advice

Another vote in the keep the car camp. This is sunk money - the mistake was made - he should suck it up and keep paying. 3% interest isn't awful, and hopefully the payments will teach him a valuable lesson. The Audi should easily last the 7 years of the loan. High mileage isn't as big a deal as it m...
by ulrichw
Sat Mar 21, 2020 2:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is it really that bad?
Replies: 96
Views: 7971

Re: Is it really that bad?

[...] I wasn't really in the market in 2008, 2001, or 1987, so...are we in a period like those? [...] 1987 was just a weird blip, so I wouldn't compare it to the other crashes - I suppose, perhaps, that this time could be like that, but it would require the bad news to taper drastically in the next...
by ulrichw
Thu Mar 19, 2020 1:39 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How much cash to have during coronavirus panic?
Replies: 144
Views: 10781

Re: How much cash to have during coronavirus panic?

It's stupid. Over panicking. and Anthony Fauci says "if it looks like you're overreacting, you're probably doing the right thing." I wonder which one of you knows what he is talking about. If you think Fauci's advice extends to runs on toilet paper and banks, you're not listening carefully enough. ...
by ulrichw
Thu Mar 19, 2020 1:37 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Unprepared for Potential Great Depression Part 2
Replies: 244
Views: 22815

Re: Unprepared for Potential Great Depression Part 2

Posted on Aug 5th, 2019: (from: https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=287405&p=4681359#p4681120) I buy only when I see blood in the streets, which is at least a 15% to 20% correction or worse. fast forward to today with the markets down around 30%... [...] I am certain many smart inve...
by ulrichw
Thu Mar 19, 2020 12:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do buy and hold investors create a floor for the market?
Replies: 5
Views: 560

Re: Do buy and hold investors create a floor for the market?

Only shares that move have a role in setting the price for the market. Shares that don't move might as well not exist.
by ulrichw
Mon Mar 16, 2020 6:28 pm
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Market crash. Should I put it all in at once or dollar cost average???
Replies: 10
Views: 1420

Re: Market crash. Should I put it all in at once or dollar cost average???

If you really don't need the money, you won't be fretting about 20% when you withdraw [...] I think that this 20% does matter. [...] Maybe a different way of stating my original thesis is that there will be many other events over the next 30 years that will be equally or more important to OP's futu...
by ulrichw
Fri Mar 13, 2020 6:08 pm
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Market crash. Should I put it all in at once or dollar cost average???
Replies: 10
Views: 1420

Re: Market crash. Should I put it all in at once or dollar cost average???

If you really don't need the money, you won't be fretting about 20% when you withdraw (because you're probably going to be looking a 200-300% gains or more), so it really doesn't matter. Personally, I like spreading the purchase around with the hope that at least some of my purchase comes at a price...
by ulrichw
Fri Mar 13, 2020 1:52 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Need wisdom - caught by timing
Replies: 6
Views: 632

Re: Need wisdom - caught by timing

I would not sell out of equities into bonds right now in your situation. You have 8 years of living expenses - over that time period, it is very, very likely (not certain, but very likely) that your stocks at current valuations will out-peform your bond investments. That's not hard to do, given how...
by ulrichw
Fri Mar 13, 2020 1:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market Timing - Should we have seen this coming?
Replies: 67
Views: 3829

Re: Market Timing - Should we have seen this coming?

MortgageOnBlack wrote:
Fri Mar 13, 2020 12:16 am
Hindsight is... 2020
oooh - nice one!
by ulrichw
Thu Mar 12, 2020 11:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin is around $6k... why is nobody talking about this?
Replies: 104
Views: 8430

Re: Bitcoin is around $6k... why is nobody talking about this?

bitdocmd wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 10:30 pm
[...]
Bitcoin is for sale. [...]
FTFY
by ulrichw
Tue Mar 03, 2020 12:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Where does the 50% number come from/worst case scenario?
Replies: 32
Views: 2575

Re: Where does the 50% number come from/worst case scenario?

Would a -90% crash even be possible today? Where would all the money go? Into bonds? The money doesn't have to go anywhere. If someone simultaneously sold 1 share of each company in the market for 10% of its current value, and no other trades occur, the market has dropped 90%. The actual amount of ...
by ulrichw
Tue Mar 03, 2020 12:46 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How to get free $20K credit for about one year?
Replies: 22
Views: 2130

Re: How to get free $20K credit for about one year?

I don't know about free, but IB's current margin loan rate on $25K is 3.06%
by ulrichw
Sun Mar 01, 2020 1:00 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: New retiree perspective during Corona Crash
Replies: 57
Views: 7023

Re: New retiree perspective during Corona Crash

Good sentiments in this thread, but before you feel too good about this, put this "Crash" into perspective. I'd hesitate to call the current market event a "crash." We've had a correction that has (so far) lasted about a week. The financial crisis crash (and that was a *real* crash) started around D...
by ulrichw
Fri Mar 30, 2018 1:03 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Cryptos- "Bear" with me here
Replies: 31
Views: 3130

Re: Cryptos- "Bear" with me here

I know most here aren't into gambling on it, and I totally understand. [...] FTFY. IMO, the lesson to learn is that "investments" like bitcoin are for play money. Be prepared to lose it all. Hope to make a small windfall. The bulk of your investing should be in vehicles that go with this forum's ce...
by ulrichw
Fri Feb 16, 2018 4:30 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Confused - placing for best after tax return- 401k and Roth 401k
Replies: 15
Views: 1482

Re: Confused - placing for best after tax return- 401k and Roth 401k

Assuming tax-rate is the same now as retirement, they should be equal. I don't think it is this simple. It could be better to pay 33% on your contributions now on Roth 401K money because the gains are tax free. You'd need good returns and a lot of time, but I'd rather pay 33% on a bit of principal ...
by ulrichw
Sun Jan 28, 2018 2:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Using CAPE to time market- timing?
Replies: 23
Views: 2070

Re: Using CAPE to time market- timing?

[...] Let's assume that the market is more likely enter a serious decline whenever CAPE is significantly elevated, as it appears to be now. [...] I'm glad you said "Let's assume", because this is an assumption that is not justified by the research behind CAPE (as I understand it, at least). Shiller...
by ulrichw
Sun Jan 28, 2018 1:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: WSJ: Wall Street to Vanguard: We’re Not Your Doormat [Fidelity charging some plans to hold Vanguard funds]
Replies: 63
Views: 12574

Re: Wall Street to Vanguard: We’re Not Your Doormat

Your link didn't work for me - here's one that did: https://www.wsj.com/articles/wall-street-to-vanguard-were-not-your-doormat-anymore-1517157915 (I'm an online WSJ subscriber) Key points: "Fidelity, the largest 401(k) plan administrator in the country, will now charge new corporate customers that h...
by ulrichw
Sat Jan 27, 2018 6:56 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: I don't think my lady is very good at saving money, how do I handle?
Replies: 50
Views: 4388

Re: I don't think my lady is very good at saving money, how do I handle?

These threads are always tricky because we're only hearing one side of the story. Sounds to me like you're probably both right - you're right that she buys impulsively and sometimes spends wastefully, and she's right that you're too cheap. Your main complaints are anecdotal, which leads me to believ...
by ulrichw
Sat Jan 27, 2018 5:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If you're really rich you're probably not an index-fundi Boglehead
Replies: 61
Views: 13133

Re: If you're really rich you're probably not an index-fundi Boglehead

One of the weaknesses of wealth-based analyses is that wealth is heavily correlated with age. An age-normalized comparison would remove some of the noise: There's a big difference between the 22 year-old college who just started his/her first job and has a $10K net worth and the 65-year old working-...
by ulrichw
Sat Jan 27, 2018 5:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Robert Shiller: Stock Market Like 1928
Replies: 57
Views: 7696

Re: Robert Shiller: Stock Market Like 1928

[...] Ask yourself: what happens to CAPE when the earnings from 2008 and 2009 are replaced with 2018 and 2019? What will be cape 10 when 08 and 09 are removed assuming similar earnings? The answer is it'll be somewhere between 10 and 15% lower than it would have with a flatter earnings history. You...
by ulrichw
Sat Jan 27, 2018 4:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: likely date for a bitcoin crash: does this make sense to you?
Replies: 115
Views: 13242

Re: likely date for a bitcoin crash: does this make sense to you?

So I finally watched the excellent BBC video, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cRxL2GKDU5E , and realized something I hadn't known before. At this point there is a huge investment in mining hardware, infrastructure, facilities etc. that, according to the video, is specialized for bitcoin . They can'...
by ulrichw
Sat Jan 27, 2018 4:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Robert Shiller: Stock Market Like 1928
Replies: 57
Views: 7696

Re: Robert Shiller: Stock Market Like 1928

To be fair to Shiller what he said was (emphasis mine): “ In some sense , we’re similar to the 1920 — I’ll say the ’28 market.” Shiller [...] concludes with - The truth is that it is impossible to pin down the full cause of the high price of the US stock market. The lack of any clear justification f...
by ulrichw
Wed Jan 24, 2018 6:36 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: am I crazy to do a lump sum investment with my entire retirement in this current stock market?
Replies: 47
Views: 7423

Re: am I crazy to do a lump sum investment with my entire retirement in this current stock market?

OP - you presented 3 facts: 1. You & husband are high-earners 2. You have about $95,000 to invest 3. You think you can retire on $500,000 (and are assuming you can get a 10% annual return) I'll start with #3 - I believe you're significantly underestimating how much you need to save. The general rule...
by ulrichw
Mon Dec 25, 2017 1:43 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Blockchain Technology Companies and Funds/ETFs/Futures
Replies: 24
Views: 2938

Re: Blockchain Technology Companies and Funds/ETFs/Futures

Blockchain will revolutionize many industries [...] Curious about what industries you think will be revolutionized by blockchain... [...] Any industry in which there is cost, time and effort involved in verifying transactions. Finance and energy are probably the two most logical. I agree that the c...
by ulrichw
Mon Dec 25, 2017 1:20 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Blockchain Technology Companies and Funds/ETFs/Futures
Replies: 24
Views: 2938

Re: Blockchain Technology Companies and Funds/ETFs/Futures

Blockchain will revolutionize many industries [...] Curious about what industries you think will be revolutionized by blockchain... Blockchain is a technology that lets you create an incontrovertible (practically speaking) public record of transactions/contracts. This is especially useful in situat...
by ulrichw
Fri Dec 22, 2017 2:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin in Freefall
Replies: 191
Views: 27028

Re: Bitcoin in Freefall

The significant thing is probably not the size of the drop (yet). More significant: https://i.imgur.com/wfyjmYo.png CNBC: Coinbase, one of the biggest bitcoin marketplaces, says buying and selling is temporarily disabled amid price rout. Coinbase says at 11:11 a.m. ET that "all buys and sells have ...
by ulrichw
Wed Dec 13, 2017 8:44 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Backdoor Roth IRA worth it?
Replies: 22
Views: 3709

Re: Backdoor Roth IRA worth it?

Another option if you're in a field like mine where job-switching happens semi-regularly is to simply put money into an after-tax tIRA and keep it there without converting it. When you find an employer with a better 401(k) plan, or your employer changes their investment offerings, move your rollover...
by ulrichw
Mon Dec 11, 2017 8:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Security Keys
Replies: 54
Views: 7220

Re: Vanguard Security Keys

As I understand it, here is the threat that exists from Vanguard's current system of sending backup codes via SMS: Imagine I am a malicious person and I have somehow obtained the password to your Vanguard account. Maybe you use the same password at a different site (yahoo) and it was compromised. I...
by ulrichw
Thu Dec 07, 2017 6:54 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Tax Gain Harvesting
Replies: 6
Views: 936

Re: Tax Gain Harvesting

The latter.

Michael Kitces has a detailed explanation of the mechanics: https://www.kitces.com/blog/understandi ... -in-basis/
by ulrichw
Thu Dec 07, 2017 6:51 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 112K pension- need help w/the rest
Replies: 26
Views: 2959

Re: 112K pension- need help w/the rest

This is my "wisdom" which is apparently NOT conventional. :D The argument that a pension shouldn't change your AA is incomprehensible to me. If you have a pension providing X income and your expenses are less than X how can that not let you tolerate more risk in your AA? To the extent it doesn't co...
by ulrichw
Thu Dec 07, 2017 3:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Bitcoin & It’s Risks
Replies: 57
Views: 6823

Re: Larry Swedroe: Bitcoin & It’s Risks

Now if you take bitcoin or commodities or currencies, what will the average person in these markets make on profits? Zero (after inflation and over the long term). Because it is a zero sum game. You are assuming that bitcoin is a zero sum game. Bitcoin certainly hasn't been a zero sum game so far. ...
by ulrichw
Tue Dec 05, 2017 9:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Bitcoin & It’s Risks
Replies: 57
Views: 6823

Re: Larry Swedroe: Bitcoin & It’s Risks

I know Bitcoin fairly well, including at the technical level, and thought Swedroe did a decent job summing up the risks involved with Bitcoin speculation. The only thing I'd possibly disagree with is: "Bitcoin is purely speculation, and smart investors don’t speculate." I would qualify this as "smar...
by ulrichw
Sun Dec 03, 2017 4:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin - How it works for the layman
Replies: 30
Views: 4212

Re: Bitcoin - How it works for the layman

Even if society migrates to bitcoin as a currency, that doesn't mean it makes sense to consider it an investment. Actually, if society were to migrate, it might very much make sense as an investment. Why? Because there is a fixed supply of Bitcoin. That means if society's economy is growing, Bitcoi...
by ulrichw
Fri Dec 01, 2017 8:56 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Considering Building Gaming PC - Good Builds/Price Points?
Replies: 34
Views: 3438

Re: Considering Building Gaming PC - Good Builds/Price Points?

You didn't say what kind of gaming. I actually think it's a somewhat awkward time to buy a PC if you plan on making it last for another decade. This is because I think VR is finally getting to the point where it's going to be viable & desirable for gaming (not so much the stand up and move around a ...
by ulrichw
Fri Dec 01, 2017 8:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: bitcoin - is there any real value here or is it a pure Ponzi scam?
Replies: 236
Views: 27125

Re: bitcoin - is there any real value here or is it a pure Ponzi scam?

[...] [L]ike any other currency it only works as long as people believe they can exchange it for goods and services. [...] In my opinion this statement is too limited, and not where Bitcoin derives most of its value from today (unless your concept of "goods and services" extends to other currencies...
by ulrichw
Thu Nov 30, 2017 8:55 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Mega Backdoor Roth via Solo 401k
Replies: 10
Views: 1551

Re: Mega Backdoor Roth via Solo 401k

The pro-rata rule applies to IRAs, not 401(k) accounts.
by ulrichw
Thu Nov 30, 2017 8:15 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Backdoor Roth / Rollover Question
Replies: 3
Views: 548

Re: Backdoor Roth / Rollover Question

You can do these steps in either order, but there are certain issues to consider in determining which order is best for you. [...] 2) Convert first - this is the cleanest because you convert only the basis (11,000) - then any small gain or loss in the remainder is pre tax, so you could roll the ent...
by ulrichw
Wed Nov 29, 2017 3:23 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: A good friend has nearly $1M in BitCoin what do I tell him?
Replies: 149
Views: 20012

Re: A good friend has nearly $1M in BitCoin what do I tell him?

Granted, he “saw the light” nearly 4 years ago, when BTC was $114. He bought $10K worth. I’m thinking it might be time to take some profits. He is a working stiff, but also a business man and a smart one at that. His opinion is that if if it goes to zero, $10K won’t break him, but if he sells, he m...
by ulrichw
Tue Nov 21, 2017 8:38 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Backdoor Roth Vs Traditional IRA for Wife’s Accounts
Replies: 12
Views: 1294

Re: Backdoor Roth Vs Traditional IRA for Wife’s Accounts

Thank you very much for the responses. I am surprised that people generally favored keeping he 401ks and doing backdoor roth. Won't the fees of three 401k's negate much of the benefit? I may take you up on the suggestion of posting the accounts for advice on asset allocation! I'll chime in and sugg...
by ulrichw
Tue Aug 08, 2017 1:41 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Personal Capital - Questions about the "Cash Flow" feature
Replies: 23
Views: 11756

Re: Personal Capital - Questions about the "Cash Flow" feature

1. Refund is not an income and it should be netted against related expense. [...] Thanks for your input. You confirmed my thinking on both items. Unfortunately it does not appear that is they way PC works. I can go through some manual calculations to make the appropriate adjustments. Regarding item...
by ulrichw
Fri Aug 04, 2017 8:05 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Startup vs big company (financial equity at stake)
Replies: 57
Views: 4862

Re: Startup vs big company (financial equity at stake)

Update!!! The founders arranged for me a meeting with one investor of the company today. The investor offered (still just informal discussion so far) me the possibility of buying from me some portion (or all) of my 0.7% vested and exercised shares at a discount of the current market value. In other...
by ulrichw
Tue Jul 04, 2017 2:13 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Best way to dispute/correct IRS bill
Replies: 18
Views: 2338

Re: Best way to dispute/correct IRS bill

[...] If it were me, I would check the box on the notice indicating "partially agree/disagree" and send back the notice with a letter of explanation [...] Totally agree with this - A number of years ago I was in a similar situation - I had made a mistake on a return, and the IRS came back with a nu...
by ulrichw
Mon Jul 03, 2017 5:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 100% stocks no debt?
Replies: 56
Views: 7466

Re: 100% stocks no debt?

Well, you're not really 100% stocks since you're holding $50K of cash, but seems reasonable to me if no short-term expenses that might require a withdrawal are planned.