Search found 1858 matches

by Sammy_M
Fri Nov 10, 2017 3:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Treasury Inflation Protected Securities [TIPS] Questions
Replies: 12
Views: 770

Re: Treasury Inflation Protected Securities [TIPS] Questions

I have posted about this a few times so please bear with me again. I am age 70 and a 30/70 stock/bond portfolio going forward would make sense. I have finally decided to set up a TIPs bond ladder within my traditional IRA. Many articles suggest that an investor should have some percent (e.g. 25 or ...
by Sammy_M
Fri Nov 10, 2017 5:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 yr tips yield: 1% to 0.83% over last 2 weeks!
Replies: 36
Views: 3458

Re: 30 yr tips yield: 1% to 0.83% over last 2 weeks!

With CDs don't forget about state taxes. What is the source for the 2.25% 10 year inflation estimAte? The Philly survey? Good point. In my case, they'd be held in tax-advantaged. Yes, the Philly survey. https://www.philadelphiafed.org/research-and-data/real-time-center/survey-of-professional-foreca...
by Sammy_M
Thu Nov 09, 2017 7:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 yr tips yield: 1% to 0.83% over last 2 weeks!
Replies: 36
Views: 3458

Re: 30 yr tips yield: 1% to 0.83% over last 2 weeks!

I cannot commit to 30 years at current yield levels, but maybe I'll regret that if we experience ILG-like negative real yields in the future. To me, TIPS look attractive vs. nominal Treasuries, but not to CDs. On the secondary market, CD NOMINAL less TIPS REAL rate... 1/15/2023 - 2.36 1/15/2024 - 2....
by Sammy_M
Thu Nov 09, 2017 7:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 yr tips yield: 1% to 0.83% over last 2 weeks!
Replies: 36
Views: 3458

Re: 30 yr tips yield: 1% to 0.83% over last 2 weeks!

Without looking, our TIPS position is maybe 10 to 15% of our Treasuries and the longest is 8 years. Unlike Grok we have little need for an inflation protected LMP. I'm currently buying sevens and hence am restricted to the secondary market and I want to avoid ABP hassles on top of the OID so this l...
by Sammy_M
Sun Nov 05, 2017 5:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I-bond inflation irony?
Replies: 35
Views: 3577

Re: I-bond inflation irony?

dodecahedron wrote:
Sun Nov 05, 2017 1:41 pm
so an individual who has set up a revocable trust with its own EIN can buy $20K per year, $10K under his SSN and $10K under the EIN of his trust.)
Doesn't have to be a separate EIN for the trust. See discussion here viewtopic.php?t=77395
by Sammy_M
Tue Oct 24, 2017 6:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Moving back to active: Will Vanguard beat American Funds by 0.24%?
Replies: 6
Views: 1214

Re: Moving back to active: Will Vanguard beat American Funds by 0.24%?

financeidiot wrote:
Tue Oct 24, 2017 3:03 pm
Unfortunate that there's a penalty for passive investing. Seems like the 401k provider is acting in their own best interest rather than the interests of plan participants.
Their view is that I've been free-riding up to this point. Time to pay my fair share. :wink:
by Sammy_M
Tue Oct 24, 2017 10:41 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Moving back to active: Will Vanguard beat American Funds by 0.24%?
Replies: 6
Views: 1214

Re: Moving back to active: Will Vanguard beat American Funds by 0.24%?

I may be misinterpreting what you wrote, but isn't the total administrative expense equal for both funds? If you're charged 0.29% administrative fees and credited for 12b-1 fees and other service fees, then wouldn't these be the total costs? Vanguard = Expense ratio + 0.29% administrative service f...
by Sammy_M
Tue Oct 24, 2017 9:25 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Moving back to active: Will Vanguard beat American Funds by 0.24%?
Replies: 6
Views: 1214

Moving back to active: Will Vanguard beat American Funds by 0.24%?

I was successful in arguing for Vanguard funds to be added to our plan several years ago. Our plan currently offers both active and passive funds. However, the plan is now instituting a change where they will charge participants a 0.29% administrative fee, and then credit us the "rate of service fee...
by Sammy_M
Thu Sep 14, 2017 6:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's likely to happen to stocks if/when interest rates rise?
Replies: 22
Views: 1474

Re: What's likely to happen to stocks if/when interest rates rise?

Growth stocks don't look as good. See W. Berstein's "Of Mines, Forests, and Impatience". http://www.efficientfrontier.com/ef/401/fisher.htm Thanks! :happy It looks very interesting and intelligently written. I came across this sentence though: 'However, money rates of interest are never negative.' ...
by Sammy_M
Thu Sep 14, 2017 5:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's likely to happen to stocks if/when interest rates rise?
Replies: 22
Views: 1474

Re: What's likely to happen to stocks if/when interest rates rise?

Growth stocks don't look as good. See W. Berstein's "Of Mines, Forests, and Impatience".
http://www.efficientfrontier.com/ef/401/fisher.htm
by Sammy_M
Tue Jul 25, 2017 5:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ben Carlson on Commodities
Replies: 12
Views: 1226

Re: Ben Carlson on Commodities

I suspect the lack of interest in commodity/CCF funds and precious metals/PME is driven by the economic climate we have today with little inflation and recent strong returns from equities. The tide will turn one day.
by Sammy_M
Fri Jun 23, 2017 5:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Your Favorite Portfolio Tilts
Replies: 86
Views: 7804

Re: Your Favorite Portfolio Tilts

. Using an indicative ‘market portfolio’ of: 30% US stocks 25% non-US stocks 23% US bonds 22% Non-US bonds (re: pg 22 of Bill Sharpe’s online book http://web.stanford.edu/~wfsharpe/RISMAT/RISMAT-7.pdf) My preferred long-term tilts are: Equities (75% relative to 55% in ‘market portfolio’) Value (tar...
by Sammy_M
Wed Jun 14, 2017 2:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Stocks, Bonds, & Risk
Replies: 61
Views: 6116

Re: Larry Swedroe: Stocks, Bonds, & Risk

Great article, consistent with Larry's teachings on this forum. I don't think Bodie is against equity investing. He merely suggests that an investor build a TIPS/I-Bonds foundation sufficient to "get by" for the duration of one's life expectancy before investing in risky assets. Practically, I think...
by Sammy_M
Mon Jun 12, 2017 3:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Present US equity risk premium
Replies: 4
Views: 741

Present US equity risk premium

Is this approach reasonable for calculating the expected US equity risk premium? Schiller P/E10 is about 30 . Earnings yield is the inverse, or E10/P, so 3.3%. But we then need to multiply by 1.075 to adjust for lag , so adjusted to 3.6%. Longest TIPS is 30 years, and is presently yielding about 1% ...
by Sammy_M
Sat Jun 10, 2017 5:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Move taxable to 529 for FAFSA benefits?
Replies: 14
Views: 854

Re: Move taxable to 529 for FAFSA benefits?

This is only true if the parent owns the account and the student is the beneficiary. http://www.savingforcollege.com/intro_to_529s/does-a-529-plan-affect-financial-aid.php Are assets counted on the Free Application for Federal Student Aid (FAFSA)? Yes, but assets in accounts owned by a dependent st...
by Sammy_M
Sat Jun 10, 2017 5:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Move taxable to 529 for FAFSA benefits?
Replies: 14
Views: 854

Re: Move taxable to 529 for FAFSA benefits?

Funds in 529 and taxable accounts are treated equally for FAFSA purposes. I'm not sure that is correct for student owned accounts. For student owned taxable, I think the expected contribution is 20%. For student owned 529s, I think it is treated as if owned by the parent, and thus has a lower expec...
by Sammy_M
Fri Jun 09, 2017 5:51 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard High-Yield Corporate Fund Investor Shares VWEHX
Replies: 47
Views: 4784

Re: Vanguard High-Yield Corporate Fund Investor Shares VWEHX

Also, now is not the best time to get into High Yield bonds. Spreads are very low - meaning that the yield premium you get for taking the extra credit risk is small relative to the yield spreads we've seen historically. Note that I don't recommend market timing as a strategy, so I just mention the ...
by Sammy_M
Sat May 13, 2017 11:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ultimate Buy and Hold - 8 slices vs 4
Replies: 719
Views: 305242

Re: Ultimate Buy and Hold - 8 slices vs 4

^It's going to be very time dependent. From 5/2009 to present using equal parts VTI, VBR, VTRIX, VSS - you could have raised your VFIUX allocation from 20 to 32% and achieved the same return with less volatility, i.e. greater sharpe ratio. https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&t...
by Sammy_M
Fri May 12, 2017 5:23 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Retiree Portfolio Review
Replies: 3
Views: 878

Retiree Portfolio Review

May I please have your thoughts on the following investment portfolio for a recently retired couple with about 80% of income needs addressed through inflation adjusted pensions and social security. Little need to take risk, but there is ability and willingness to take reasonable risks to achieve por...
by Sammy_M
Sun May 07, 2017 2:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: PowerShares S&P 500 Value with Momentum ETF (SPVM)
Replies: 10
Views: 1028

Re: PowerShares S&P 500 Value with Momentum ETF (SPVM)

Several risks that this fund will not beat the TSM, among them are high turnover, which brings with it transaction costs, value risk, industry concentration risk, non-correlation risk, and momentum investing risk. This fund attempts to down select the market of 500 stock to 200 and then does a mome...
by Sammy_M
Sun May 07, 2017 8:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: PowerShares S&P 500 Value with Momentum ETF (SPVM)
Replies: 10
Views: 1028

Re: PowerShares S&P 500 Value with Momentum ETF (SPVM)

No arguments there. IF I were to use this fund, it would be a very small allocation in my IRA, complementing TSM in my 401K, to help achieve my desired value tilt. SPVM will probably be about as concentrated as the Guggenheim Pure Value ETFs. You/Jared are likely right that it will not necessarily h...
by Sammy_M
Sun May 07, 2017 6:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: PowerShares S&P 500 Value with Momentum ETF (SPVM)
Replies: 10
Views: 1028

PowerShares S&P 500 Value with Momentum ETF (SPVM)

I am interested in thoughts on the captioned new Value + Momentum fund that has a 0.30% ER. Mine are that while non-diversified, it should have strong Value and Momentum characteristics. It will be interesting to see once it has a longer history. SPVM seeks to track the S&P 500 High Momentum Value I...
by Sammy_M
Mon Mar 20, 2017 6:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What do you expect to achieve with your Tilt?
Replies: 85
Views: 7347

Re: What do you expect to achieve with your Tilt?

The standard deviation also tells us more than just what to expect annually, it provides an indication of what to expect over longer time horizons e.g. 25 years. For example a SD of 14 implies returns of one in every six 25 year periods of 2.8 percent below the mean [14/SQRT(25)] i.e. there is abou...
by Sammy_M
Sat Feb 04, 2017 7:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone have a tilt portfolio similar to this
Replies: 22
Views: 2499

Re: Anyone have a tilt portfolio similar to this

Hello, I was just curious if anyone has a portfolio similar to this for their equity portion. 30% total stock market fund 30% Small Cap Value 20% total international fund 20% emerging market This fund is 60/40 as far as US/International. Its also 50% total stock market funds versus 50% in SCV and E...
by Sammy_M
Tue Dec 27, 2016 9:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 100% TIPS and 0% in Nominal Bonds?
Replies: 168
Views: 10928

Re: 100% TIPS and 0% in Nominal Bonds?

If I consider my mortgage a negative nominal bond, I have close to 100% in TIPS.
by Sammy_M
Wed Dec 07, 2016 6:03 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: TIPS [good time to invest?]
Replies: 4
Views: 808

Re: TIPS [good time to invest?]

It depends on the comparison point. The 10-year breakeven inflation rate is presently 1.94. 5 year b/e inflation rate is 1.79. If actual inflation turns out to be higher over those time frames, you were better off investing in TIPS than nominal Treasuries. See m A better option may be CDs that can b...
by Sammy_M
Sat Sep 24, 2016 12:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Arnott and Asness Square Off on Factor Investing
Replies: 17
Views: 2193

Re: Arnott and Asness Square Off on Factor Investing

Yes, the title is not descriptive. They are agreeing more than disagreeing. The markets, by their very nature, are going to look for inefficiencies and squash them. The inefficiencies are likely to be dynamic. They're likely to change over time. There are a few timeless ones--momentum, for sure; val...
by Sammy_M
Sat Sep 24, 2016 9:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Arnott and Asness Square Off on Factor Investing
Replies: 17
Views: 2193

Arnott and Asness Square Off on Factor Investing

m Interesting comment. You asked about all of the attention focused on factors. One thing I would say to that is attention doesn't change prices. Money changes prices. Where these flows are coming from is fascinating. We've seen flows out of traditional stock-picking active management into both stra...
by Sammy_M
Thu Sep 08, 2016 6:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fidelity and new Factor-based ETF's
Replies: 6
Views: 889

Re: Fidelity and new Factor-based ETF's

Just hope that this doesn't steer them toward discontinuing their deal with iShares. IUSV at 7bp is hard to beat for value.
by Sammy_M
Mon Aug 22, 2016 3:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How do you view debt?
Replies: 108
Views: 8455

Re: How do you view debt?

I don't view debt as evil, it's just a slippery slope that a lot of people use unwisely. My general guidance would be: Don't buy what you don't need. If you use debt, maintain ample liquidity. Pay down/off any debt that is > Prime + 3%. Then fund your retirement accounts. Pay down/off any debt great...
by Sammy_M
Thu Jul 28, 2016 6:27 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Universal life as p/o fixed income allocation
Replies: 4
Views: 506

Re: Universal life as p/o fixed income allocation

afan wrote:Not all of the premium goes into the investment fund. Some may be deducted for commissions, some for premium taxes and other expenses.

Thanks. This is exactly what I was looking to learn.
by Sammy_M
Mon Jul 25, 2016 2:48 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Universal life as p/o fixed income allocation
Replies: 4
Views: 506

Universal life as p/o fixed income allocation

I help a relative of mine with her finances. She took out a small universal life 'plus' policy from Ameriprise in the early 90s with a $100K death benefit. Cash value is now in the high 4-figures. I haven't paid much attention to this policy, but in reviewing this weekend I saw the fixed account int...
by Sammy_M
Mon Jul 11, 2016 5:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Valuations and market timing, and the current CAPE 10
Replies: 88
Views: 10350

Re: Valuations and market timing, and the current CAPE 10

Sammy, should not add 1.5 to the 3.8. The figure should be 3.8% x (1 + [5 x2]) Five year lag and earnings grow about 2% per year in real terms. That brings current earnings yield up to 4.2% and that is the real expected return. It's not the DDM which you add g to the div yield Larry Got it. Thank y...
by Sammy_M
Mon Jul 11, 2016 3:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Valuations and market timing, and the current CAPE 10
Replies: 88
Views: 10350

Re: Valuations and market timing, and the current CAPE 10

Interesting that even with CAPE 10 over 26, today's equity risk premiums are still fairly attractive because bond yields are so low.

1/PE10 is 3.8 +1.5 = 5.3%
The longest TIPS available is yielding around 0.6% real
4.7% equity risk premium is a little low, but not terribly outside the 'norm'.
by Sammy_M
Fri Feb 12, 2016 2:30 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Managing kid's internet use
Replies: 48
Views: 5950

Re: Managing kid's internet use

Open DNS and blocking at the router level. That way any devices that connect to the wireless network are subject to parental controls. Plus keeping the main computer in common area. What's a router? What's DNS? Seriously, the technical skill for doing these things is probably more than the average ...
by Sammy_M
Sun Feb 07, 2016 10:12 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Managing kid's internet use
Replies: 48
Views: 5950

Re: Managing kid's internet use

Open DNS and blocking at the router level. That way any devices that connect to the wireless network are subject to parental controls.

Plus keeping the main computer in common area.
by Sammy_M
Sat Feb 06, 2016 8:10 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How to behave on a RGD (Really Good Day)?
Replies: 17
Views: 2132

Re: How to behave on a RGD (Really Good Day)?

Recall a past topic in which Larry Swedroe advocated 5/20 bands. My half-memory of his argument was that as rebalancing is to control risk/return, wider bands would expose us to more/less risk/return than we originally established with our chosen AA. Of course, if we accept the risk (we are as like...
by Sammy_M
Sat Feb 06, 2016 8:00 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Fidelity or iShares for total stk market?
Replies: 34
Views: 4054

Re: Fidelity or iShares for total stk market?

To the OP's question, the answer is simple. If taxable, buy the iShares Core ETF which has no transaction fees and reasonable bid-ask spread.
by Sammy_M
Fri Feb 05, 2016 6:40 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How to behave on a RGD (Really Good Day)?
Replies: 17
Views: 2132

Re: How to behave on a RGD (Really Good Day)?

Kevin M wrote:Maybe the 5/25 bands are too narrow considering taxes and the volatility of the investment.

I agree with this, specifically the 25% deviation part. PME has BIG swings. I hold in tax-advantaged, and still will not be rebalancing that frequently.
by Sammy_M
Fri Feb 05, 2016 6:27 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Fidelity or iShares for total stk market?
Replies: 34
Views: 4054

Re: Fidelity or iShares for total stk market?

iShares ETF if taxable. ETF is inherently more tax efficient. If you transfer brokerages you can move the ETF in-kind. I'm not certain whether that is the case with Fidelity Spartan funds. Maybe someone else can comment. Probably iShares ETF for tax-advantaged accounts too is you're not getting the ...
by Sammy_M
Sun Jan 31, 2016 12:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Rolling Over 529 $ from 2 Different States
Replies: 9
Views: 1005

Re: Rolling Over 529 $ from 2 Different States

betterfinances wrote:Uh, why are people trying to move 529s from one state to another?

No in-state tax deduction.
Fixed income rate changes.
Wisen up about benefits of a particular plan.
by Sammy_M
Sun Jan 31, 2016 11:12 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Rolling Over 529 $ from 2 Different States
Replies: 9
Views: 1005

Re: Rolling Over 529 $ *to* 2 Different States

Resurrecting this thread because I am in a similar position, but am trying to go to 2 states. Child 1 and Child 2's 529's are about the same size. Both are in State 1 plan. Child 1's has only been there since Sept '15 when it was transferred from another state. Unfortunately the rate dropped as of 1...
by Sammy_M
Wed Jan 27, 2016 11:10 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Software to combine multiple video or audio files
Replies: 16
Views: 1298

Re: Software to combine multiple video or audio files

For audio, Audacity has worked well for me. For video, I've used Windows Move Maker but there are probably better options. Both of the ones mentioned are free.
by Sammy_M
Sun Jan 24, 2016 9:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why don't people like the higher level of real estate allocation in Swensen lazy portfolio?
Replies: 33
Views: 4012

Re: Why don't people like the higher level of real estate allocation in Swensen lazy portfolio?

I don't invest in REITS because I have enough residential real estate exposure as it is. I like the idea of 20% in real estate, but not necessarily 20% in REITs. If you don't want to invest in real estate directly or via syndications and are only doing REITS, I think 20% is too much. How does one pr...
by Sammy_M
Sat Jan 23, 2016 6:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: I Bonds
Replies: 27
Views: 3699

Re: I Bonds

^It is also likely that times when you might need emergency funds (unemployment, high med expenses, etc.) are going to be times when your tax rate is lower.
by Sammy_M
Sat Jan 23, 2016 6:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: I Bonds
Replies: 27
Views: 3699

Re: I Bonds

3. In college savings, when you are in a state that has no state tax, under certain income levels you can use proceeds tax free for educational purposes. Many more I'm sure. You can use proceeds tax free for qualified educational purposes if under certain income levels, yes, this is true. I-Bonds a...
by Sammy_M
Sat Jan 23, 2016 2:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What was the 2000 crash like in real time?
Replies: 65
Views: 6972

Re: What was the 2000 crash like in real time?

^And then Enron and WorldCom fiasos in 2002
by Sammy_M
Thu Jan 21, 2016 5:57 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Going from 50/50 US/Int to All US
Replies: 80
Views: 7471

Re: Going from 50/50 US/Int to All US

Don't do it. Over the long run, it doesn't matter so much the allocation you choose, as much as the choice to stick with it, even when you are feeling like you are now. When things have been going bad, there will always be experts on the other side of the argument who make a lot of sense to you at t...
by Sammy_M
Wed Jan 20, 2016 8:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: eyeing micro-cap stocks
Replies: 39
Views: 3673

Re: eyeing micro-cap stocks

. Would just stick with passive funds - if you want micro-cap exposure Bridgeway (BRSIX) is a good choice IMO, but would not suggest market timing, but rather use as long-term holding. . I wholly agree about passive, but have been disappointed with BRSIX's tax efficiency and negative alpha in the l...
by Sammy_M
Wed Jan 20, 2016 7:50 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 529 vs Pre-Paid Plan in Massachusetts?
Replies: 13
Views: 1844

Re: 529 vs Pre-Paid Plan in Massachusetts?

I agree with randomguy's point, but would fund more than that in the U.Plan if you think they could end up going to a MA private university. The overage will still earn CPI tax free, and I don't feel the Am. Opportunity Credit should drive the decision. The Utah 529 plan is very good, particularly i...