Search found 193 matches

by lauren_knows
Tue Dec 06, 2022 10:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: cFIREsim - question on Guyton-Klinger calculation
Replies: 3
Views: 683

Re: cFIREsim - question on Guyton-Klinger calculation

lauren_knows wrote: Tue Dec 06, 2022 10:49 am Short answer: It looks like "current withdrawal rate" is being calculated like this: (last_years_spending / original_portfolio_amount), instead of using the current portfolio amount.

I'm looking into whether this is the way GK intended it or not...
So yeah, this was a bug! I updated it to calculate the "current withdrawal rate" based on the year that it's calculating the spending for. The graph should look a lot different to you.

Cheers!

-Lauren
by lauren_knows
Tue Dec 06, 2022 10:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: cFIREsim - question on Guyton-Klinger calculation
Replies: 3
Views: 683

Re: cFIREsim - question on Guyton-Klinger calculation

Short answer: It looks like "current withdrawal rate" is being calculated like this: (last_years_spending / original_portfolio_amount), instead of using the current portfolio amount.

I'm looking into whether this is the way GK intended it or not...
by lauren_knows
Fri Aug 12, 2022 8:11 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: James Welch and i-ORP off-line? [Now back online]
Replies: 49
Views: 9593

Re: James Welch and i-ORP off-line?

Was able to receive some information on this topic. Jim is no longer able to maintain the I-ORP website. He is looking to find and hand over to another developer going forward but that is still in the works. The website will be down until further notice. He does appreciate everyone's concern. Alas, I was afraid of this. From the cFIREsim thread sometime last year: - I'm glad to see your relative youth -- once of my concerns about i-ORP is that the maintainer has no legacy plan (AFAIK) and I don't know of a good alternate. Any interest or thoughts in replicating or building upon i-ORP's tools? (Two arguments against: I sense you like simplicity, and the inputs required are non-simple; also the maintenance burden is tracking and implementing...
by lauren_knows
Tue Aug 09, 2022 3:52 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: James Welch and i-ORP off-line? [Now back online]
Replies: 49
Views: 9593

Re: James Welch and i-ORP off-line?

Was able to receive some information on this topic. Jim is no longer able to maintain the I-ORP website. He is looking to find and hand over to another developer going forward but that is still in the works. The website will be down until further notice. He does appreciate everyone's concern. Alas, I was afraid of this. From the cFIREsim thread sometime last year: - I'm glad to see your relative youth -- once of my concerns about i-ORP is that the maintainer has no legacy plan (AFAIK) and I don't know of a good alternate. Any interest or thoughts in replicating or building upon i-ORP's tools? (Two arguments against: I sense you like simplicity, and the inputs required are non-simple; also the maintenance burden is tracking and implementing...
by lauren_knows
Fri Jun 03, 2022 9:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: cFIREsim has been revised and is super easy to use.
Replies: 257
Views: 35395

Re: Cfiresim has been revised and is super easy to use.

LICinvestor wrote: Fri Jun 03, 2022 9:26 am
lauren_knows wrote: Fri Jun 03, 2022 8:06 am
Answering from my mobile, so I can't find a source right now, but there is a lengthy thread in these forums that details how cFIREsim calculates bonds SLIGHTLY differently that Firecalc. Also, I haven't updated the data in about 6 months, so it's possible that skews the numbers very slightly. Lots of assumptions can be slightly different... don't trust any one specific calculator :)
Thanks so much Lauren! And also thanks for being so kind to reply to us contacting you directly by email 😀
I aim to differentiate myself by being heavily involved in the PF and FIRE communities :D You're totally welcome!
by lauren_knows
Fri Jun 03, 2022 8:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: cFIREsim has been revised and is super easy to use.
Replies: 257
Views: 35395

Re: Cfiresim has been revised and is super easy to use.

Cfiresim is more optimistic than firecalc. Interesting. I was under the impression that they were both based on the same underlying historical data and used the same algorithm and formulas when based on the same input data. So I'd be curious about why this is true. Thanks for the heads-up Dottie. I appreciate it. [edit: I actually thought it was simply a front-end to Firecalc, and relayed your input data right into Firecalc. Is this not the case? Thanks again.] They are based on the same underlying data, but long story short: cFIREsim calculates bond returns based on the 10 year long interest rate slightly more accurately than Firecalc, based on some extensive conversations with users on this forum (namely LongInvest). Source: I am the cre...
by lauren_knows
Sun Mar 06, 2022 2:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: cFIREsim has been revised and is super easy to use.
Replies: 257
Views: 35395

Re: cFIREsim has been revised and is super easy to use.

I can't believe I didn't know about this tool yet. I think I may have run across it last year and dismissed it because of the simplistic front page. I've been holding FIRECalc as my gold standard for those free tools and only checked cFIREsim because of this thread and learning it was a rewrite of FIRECal. I watched the recorded intro Lauren did for a Boglehead Chapter Series https://youtu.be/Lg7NX2Lx9wY, great overview I like the tool. It took me a while to wrap my head about how the data is presented over a century and a half instead of stacking the simulation results over the next N years like Firecalc and most other tools (e.g. PErsonal Capital retirement planner) do. I think I found a minor UI bug: I was running an Investigation then ...
by lauren_knows
Fri Mar 04, 2022 11:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: cFIREsim has been revised and is super easy to use.
Replies: 257
Views: 35395

Re: cFIREsim has been revised and is super easy to use.

Neither here nor there, just an interesting observation. By the way, I can't stop running the simulations :mrgreen: If you ever do aggregate the sims, mine are probably like 1,000 of them. Anyway, I just observed an interesting result. I only changed one parameter, the spending floor using VPW, and as you might expect, I could generate a 100% success, or a fail of some measure (93%) as a result of the change. No surprise. What I found interesting is that it shuffles the 50 worst periods somewhat! In the sim where I fail, it's almost all (8 of 10) periods starting from the mid-late 60s (probably the worst time to retire in modern history in the US) Of the 7 $0 results, 6 are in the 1960s. In the sim where I don't fail, 6 of the bottom 10 ar...
by lauren_knows
Thu Mar 03, 2022 11:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: cFIREsim has been revised and is super easy to use.
Replies: 257
Views: 35395

Re: cFIREsim has been revised and is super easy to use.

Hi Lauren, It's that time of year where I reflect on last year, our progress towards FI, and I annoy my spouse with talk of budgeting. In that spirit, I fired up cfiresim again and started to tweak some of the spending parameters. Am I correct in assuming that the choice of variable spending floor labeled "adjustments" means a "floor" of $0 portfolio withdrawals? As in, you are only relying on pensions and SS? Cheers Variable Floor of "adjustments" takes into account any income stream listed in the lower part of the form that is "Income/Savings" or "Pension". That includes SS, Pensions, or other income streams. Your spending will never be marked below that threshold. Hi Lauren, I appreciate...
by lauren_knows
Thu Mar 03, 2022 10:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: cFIREsim has been revised and is super easy to use.
Replies: 257
Views: 35395

Re: cFIREsim has been revised and is super easy to use.

stocknoob4111 wrote: Thu Mar 03, 2022 10:03 am In the Portfolio dips section it would be nice to know, in addition to the starting year, the year in which the portfolio reached bottom in the cycle.
It currently provides the "Cycle #" which you would just add to the Start Year to determine the year, but maybe that's not very intuitive. Duly noted!
by lauren_knows
Thu Mar 03, 2022 10:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: cFIREsim has been revised and is super easy to use.
Replies: 257
Views: 35395

Re: cFIREsim has been revised and is super easy to use.

Marseille07 wrote: Sun Jan 30, 2022 3:04 pm
nigel_ht wrote: Sun Jan 30, 2022 11:28 am Hmmm…be more balanced between TLT and BIL?

Gotta rethink a little bit even keeping the sameish AA.
Maybe lauren_knows can chime in and tell us which bonds data is being used. My wild guess is ITT but I'm not sure.

I don't hold bonds, and when I run sims I choose cash and change Growth Of Cash to 0.
The bond data in cFIREsim is the GS10 Long Interest rate, provided by the Shiller data set.
by lauren_knows
Thu Mar 03, 2022 9:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: cFIREsim has been revised and is super easy to use.
Replies: 257
Views: 35395

Re: cFIREsim has been revised and is super easy to use.

Also, another feature request. How about a "save as a PDF" option? I know I can "print to PDF" (on a Mac, I know nothing about Windows) but the formatting/ page cutoffs are awkward, especially if you drop down the bottom 50 portfolio dips. A summary of the inputs page would also give it context. I end up "printing to PDF" both, then merging the pages. Like savings the whole output page as a PDF, graphs and all? Not just the CSV data? BTW, any chance at an expanded view of the graphs? On my long list of things to do is to reevaluate the javascript library that I use for graphing, and redesign the output page a little. I vaguely remember messing around with an option in the current library that allowed the graph...
by lauren_knows
Thu Mar 03, 2022 9:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: cFIREsim has been revised and is super easy to use.
Replies: 257
Views: 35395

Re: cFIREsim has been revised and is super easy to use.

Harry Livermore wrote: Thu Mar 03, 2022 9:05 am Hi Lauren,
It's that time of year where I reflect on last year, our progress towards FI, and I annoy my spouse with talk of budgeting. In that spirit, I fired up cfiresim again and started to tweak some of the spending parameters.
Am I correct in assuming that the choice of variable spending floor labeled "adjustments" means a "floor" of $0 portfolio withdrawals? As in, you are only relying on pensions and SS?
Cheers
Variable Floor of "adjustments" takes into account any income stream listed in the lower part of the form that is "Income/Savings" or "Pension". That includes SS, Pensions, or other income streams. Your spending will never be marked below that threshold.
by lauren_knows
Sun Jan 30, 2022 10:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: cFIREsim has been revised and is super easy to use.
Replies: 257
Views: 35395

Re: cFIREsim has been revised and is super easy to use.

nigel_ht wrote: Sun Jan 30, 2022 9:47 am
lauren_knows wrote: Sun Jan 30, 2022 9:14 am
nigel_ht wrote: Sun Jan 30, 2022 8:59 am What am I doing wrong?

https://www.cfiresim.com/6c8390aa-9dfb- ... 0446829ff9

1929 should be a failure case right?
Surprising to many, but no. I think the only actual failures involve start dates in the 60s where stagflation crushed people's portfolios.
Odd…I thought that was one of the 5 Trinity failure cases. 90-10 I don’t think failed either…
Trinity study was 50 50 stocks bonds.That fails for a start year of 1906, because at the end you get crushed by 1929. If you start right before the crash, it does in fact recover (the market). In practice, though, I wonder if the societal shift would have allowed you to keep afloat
by lauren_knows
Sun Jan 30, 2022 9:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: cFIREsim has been revised and is super easy to use.
Replies: 257
Views: 35395

Re: cFIREsim has been revised and is super easy to use.

nigel_ht wrote: Sun Jan 30, 2022 8:59 am What am I doing wrong?

https://www.cfiresim.com/6c8390aa-9dfb- ... 0446829ff9

1929 should be a failure case right?
Surprising to many, but no. I think the only actual failures involve start dates in the 60s where stagflation crushed people's portfolios.
by lauren_knows
Sun Nov 07, 2021 8:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: cFIREcim simulations of VPW - what does rate of return do in historical simulations?
Replies: 9
Views: 909

Re: cFIREcim simulations of VPW - what does rate of return do in historical simulations?

LadyGeek wrote: Sun Nov 07, 2021 7:57 am lauren_knows - longinvest is the developer of the VPW spreadsheet.
Thanks! I know. We worked together on the cFIREsim adaptation nearly a decade ago :D
by lauren_knows
Sun Nov 07, 2021 7:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: cFIREcim simulations of VPW - what does rate of return do in historical simulations?
Replies: 9
Views: 909

Re: cFIREcim simulations of VPW - what does rate of return do in historical simulations?

One question I do have is why is there a box to enter 'rate of return' (RoR) in the simulation? Being as this is a historical back test wouldn't the RoR be known? I can understand why the RoR is used in the VPW worksheet as it's looking forward. cFIREsim creator here. On the face of it, that does sound confusing. But the "rate of return" on the VPW inputs has nothing to do with the market returns. It is a "rate" that is used to calculate the yearly annuity formula for VPW that ultimately determines spending. For any of you math/programming nerds, the formula in cFIREsim looks something like this: rate = inputs.vpw_rate_of_return / 100 nper = cycle.years - segment.cycle_index + 1 #which year in the simulation its in #pre...
by lauren_knows
Sun Nov 07, 2021 7:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: cFIREsim has been revised and is super easy to use.
Replies: 257
Views: 35395

Re: cFIREsim has been revised and is super easy to use.

LadyGeek wrote: Sun Nov 07, 2021 7:19 am FYI - SunRainSnow is asking a question in this thread: cFIREcim simulations of VPW - what does rate of return do in historical simulations?

(The developer's participation would be appreciated.)
I'll check it out!
by lauren_knows
Fri Jul 23, 2021 12:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: cFIREsim has been revised and is super easy to use.
Replies: 257
Views: 35395

Re: Cfiresim has been revised and is super easy to use. (It's based on Firecalc)

- Is there a workaround to simulate a bond-tent approach to the portfolio mix? Not really. Similar to the request before you, having the ability to do multiple glide-paths in a simulation would solve this. Yep; I was writing my thoughts in a separate window as I caught up on the thread. - Someone else mentioned PortfolioVisualizer's sequence-of-returns-risk knob. I would like to see some form of that in cFIREsim. I'll have to check that out, because I am not familiar with that part of PortfolioViz (don't look at it too often). https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/monte-carlo-simulation https://i.imgur.com/vbI8hwQ.png I was wondering how that works. "Worst x years first". Are we talking about 1907, 1931 and 2008 all one after the o...
by lauren_knows
Fri Jul 23, 2021 12:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: cFIREsim has been revised and is super easy to use.
Replies: 257
Views: 35395

Re: Cfiresim has been revised and is super easy to use. (It's based on Firecalc)

- Similarly, Retirement End could be filled in from an Age field with a separate operation against an actuarial table. This has been suggested before, but let me double-check that it was recorded on Trello... - Is there a workaround to simulate a bond-tent approach to the portfolio mix? Not really. Similar to the request before you, having the ability to do multiple glide-paths in a simulation would solve this. - I'm glad to see your relative youth -- once of my concerns about i-ORP is that the maintainer has no legacy plan (AFAIK) and I don't know of a good alternate. Any interest or thoughts in replicating or building upon i-ORP's tools? (Two arguments against: I sense you like simplicity, and the inputs required are non-simple; also the...
by lauren_knows
Thu Jul 22, 2021 9:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: cFIREsim has been revised and is super easy to use.
Replies: 257
Views: 35395

Re: cFIREsim has been revised and is super easy to use.

Hey Lauren, thanks for your app, I love it. Do you have a tracker for bug reports or feature requests? Or is this thread enough? I'd have two feature requests: (1) Implement "reverse gliding path" for those of us who plan to reduce stock allocation before retirement but also increase it back in retirement. (2) Damn, I forgot the other one. I'll go play with my simulation and come back when my brain reconnects. I try to keep track of all feature requests that come in from this forum, Twitter, email, and Reddit on my Trello board: https://trello.com/b/jTh8tuDE/cfiresim I'm not that prolific with code writing during the summer, because we go on a lot more adventures with my kids, but it's a good place to keep track of the things tha...
by lauren_knows
Thu Jul 22, 2021 8:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: cFIREsim has been revised and is super easy to use.
Replies: 257
Views: 35395

Re: cFIREsim has been revised and is super easy to use.

Fixed a bug today, thanks on the report of a user. I had been working on flawed information regarding Social Security. I was given the impression that any "estimated benefit" for the future was in nominal dollars and THEN began to be inflated once it was taken (a lot like some pensions). However, after asking some folks on Twitter, I was pointed to this SSA document that states otherwise: https://www.ssa.gov/policy/docs/rsnotes/rsn2008-05.html. The estimated benefit is adjusted for inflation along the way.

A special thanks to athinkergem for pointing this out to me. And I hope this improves people's simulations!

-Lauren
by lauren_knows
Thu Jul 01, 2021 6:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: cFIREsim has been revised and is super easy to use.
Replies: 257
Views: 35395

Re: Results different from Firecalc when pension included

Hello Posting here as I think this is the most recent Cfiresim thread. Im aware that cfiresim and firecalc provide very similar outcomes when using investable assets only. However I noticed that if I enter my pension or social security, the results start to diverge significantly with Firecalc being more "optimistic" than cfiresim For example, using the default $1MM in portfolio, 75% stock, no pensions or SS, I get max 100% success spending in cfiresim as $35,865. Firecalc results in $35,947 with similar inputs. The difference is ~0.2%. If I add a pension/ss of $40,000, starting in 2037 (both simulations run from 2021 to 2050), the 100% success in cfiresim as $42,054. Firecalc results in $48,071 with similar inputs. The difference...
by lauren_knows
Mon May 03, 2021 6:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: cFIREsim has been revised and is super easy to use.
Replies: 257
Views: 35395

Re: cFIREsim has been revised and is super easy to use.

mtmingus wrote: Sun May 02, 2021 9:55 pm
lauren_knows wrote: Sun May 02, 2021 7:09 pm
Padlin wrote: Sun May 02, 2021 6:51 pm Can someone explain the Spending Analysis? I don't know the meaning of the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 4th quarters.
If your retirement period is 32 years, each "quarter" is 8 years. So, the average spending in the first 8 years, 2nd 8 years, etc. This is only particularly relevant if using variable spending methods.
I tried two simulations:
1) initial 82k with Spending Plan = Inflation Adjusted (CPI) (82k the max with 100% success)
2) initial 82k with Spending Plan = VPW
the 2nd simulation shows much higher medium spending in each of the 4 quarters.

Thanks Lauren!
Well, that makes sense. VPW is a spending plan designed to spend down your portfolio before death.
by lauren_knows
Sun May 02, 2021 7:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: cFIREsim has been revised and is super easy to use.
Replies: 257
Views: 35395

Re: cFIREsim has been revised and is super easy to use.

Padlin wrote: Sun May 02, 2021 6:51 pm Can someone explain the Spending Analysis? I don't know the meaning of the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 4th quarters.
If your retirement period is 32 years, each "quarter" is 8 years. So, the average spending in the first 8 years, 2nd 8 years, etc. This is only particularly relevant if using variable spending methods.
by lauren_knows
Fri Apr 02, 2021 7:11 am
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Chicago virtual Bogleheads meeting
Replies: 65
Views: 12212

Re: Chicago virtual Bogleheads meeting

The developer of the free product cfiresim has graciously agreed to demonstrate the product and participate in a Q & A session on Thursday April 15th at 7 pm Central time You can try out the product here https://www.cfiresim.com/ Thursday April 15 at 5 pm Pacific 6 pm Mountain 7 pm Central 8 pm Eastern If you would like to attend the Zoom meeting please contact me via email at chicagovirtualbogleheads@gmail.com or Private Message me with your EMAIL or join your local chapter (local chapter coordinators will be distributing the invitation) You can find the local chapters here. You can also find a calendar of upcoming events here. Hi there, bogleheads. I'm the developer/creator of cFIREsim. As the date draws near for my presentation, I w...
by lauren_knows
Sun Mar 28, 2021 2:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: cFIREsim has been revised and is super easy to use.
Replies: 257
Views: 35395

Re: cFIREsim has been revised and is super easy to use.

Lauren - I’m loving the program. Thanks so much! Quick question - when simulating bonds, what is that equivalent to? I suspect 10 year treasuries, but just want to be certain! Again - thanks so much. You're spot on. It's the GS10 Long Interest Rate from historical data. -Lauren Awesome - thanks for getting back to me! Last question, when I input cash for the portfolio does this imply the three month treasury rate or is cash adjusted by solely the growth of cash rate? The reason this is interesting to me is levered portfolios on the efficient frontier use negative cash and I was wondering if the borrowing costs would be historical or just user adjusted according to the growth of cash input. The ability to add negative cash into cfiresim is ...
by lauren_knows
Sun Mar 28, 2021 1:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: cFIREsim has been revised and is super easy to use.
Replies: 257
Views: 35395

Re: cFIREsim has been revised and is super easy to use.

This is probably stupid question, but I'll ask anyway: all the calculations assume US stock market, correct? And the bonds are 10 year treasuries? So if I am 60/40 US/International stocks, and total bond fund, then the results are not exactly the same, but close enough for long term planning? Thanks. The bonds are GS10 Long Interest Rate bonds. Not sure if that's really close to international stocks. I'm looking to add some datasets in the near future, but definitely having issues. I might pick up the data from the Simba spreadsheet, but that's only from 1927 on. I'm also partially done with a "monte carlo" option that lets you define your own assets (by giving a rate of return and a volatility number), then it gives a random nor...
by lauren_knows
Sun Mar 28, 2021 1:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: cFIREsim has been revised and is super easy to use.
Replies: 257
Views: 35395

Re: cFIREsim has been revised and is super easy to use.

Lock wrote: Sun Mar 28, 2021 12:46 pm Lauren - I’m loving the program. Thanks so much!

Quick question - when simulating bonds, what is that equivalent to? I suspect 10 year treasuries, but just want to be certain!

Again - thanks so much.
You're spot on. It's the GS10 Long Interest Rate from historical data.

-Lauren
by lauren_knows
Sat Mar 27, 2021 9:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: cFIREsim has been revised and is super easy to use.
Replies: 257
Views: 35395

Re: Cfiresim has been revised and is super easy to use.

OP here. Just a thought. I know people keep asking for extra features, but, like the Google home page, the value is in its clean simplicity. So maybe it owes its appeal and value to the fact that it strikes the perfect balance of clarity and versatility. Adding much more might make it unwieldy and intimidating. And the importance of cFIREsim is that it can help the largest number of people because it is so understandable, but also does not oversimplify things. It take all the key facts into account, and presents all the highly useful results clearly. There is nothing really extraneous in the inputs or output. There are already other tools out there for those who want the ultimate flexibility in designing complex scenarios and generating vo...
by lauren_knows
Fri Mar 26, 2021 12:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: cFIREsim has been revised and is super easy to use.
Replies: 257
Views: 35395

Re: Cfiresim has been revised and is super easy to use.

Lauren, First: thank you! I’d like to use the pension thing to represent a NQDC account with a ten year payout. Now that differs from a pension in that it has invested assets, so I need to model that separately from the rest of the portfolio which has a different allocation and a longer period for drawdown. Doable? I had never heard of an NQDC account before. After briefly looking at the definition, I'd probably need some more details about how they work, what their payout is based on, do they go up by inflation, should they be able to be modeled separately with a different allocation/rate-of-return than the rest of your portfolio, etc. At first glance, it looks like it's not necessarily possible to separately represent it. If it's just in...
by lauren_knows
Fri Mar 26, 2021 11:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: cFIREsim has been revised and is super easy to use.
Replies: 257
Views: 35395

Re: Cfiresim has been revised and is super easy to use.

Lauren, First: thank you! I’d like to use the pension thing to represent a NQDC account with a ten year payout. Now that differs from a pension in that it has invested assets, so I need to model that separately from the rest of the portfolio which has a different allocation and a longer period for drawdown. Doable? I had never heard of an NQDC account before. After briefly looking at the definition, I'd probably need some more details about how they work, what their payout is based on, do they go up by inflation, should they be able to be modeled separately with a different allocation/rate-of-return than the rest of your portfolio, etc. At first glance, it looks like it's not necessarily possible to separately represent it. If it's just in...
by lauren_knows
Fri Mar 26, 2021 9:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: cFIREsim has been revised and is super easy to use.
Replies: 257
Views: 35395

Re: Cfiresim has been revised and is super easy to use.

Lauren, First: thank you! I’d like to use the pension thing to represent a NQDC account with a ten year payout. Now that differs from a pension in that it has invested assets, so I need to model that separately from the rest of the portfolio which has a different allocation and a longer period for drawdown. Doable? I had never heard of an NQDC account before. After briefly looking at the definition, I'd probably need some more details about how they work, what their payout is based on, do they go up by inflation, should they be able to be modeled separately with a different allocation/rate-of-return than the rest of your portfolio, etc. At first glance, it looks like it's not necessarily possible to separately represent it. If it's just in...
by lauren_knows
Fri Mar 26, 2021 6:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: cFIREsim has been revised and is super easy to use.
Replies: 257
Views: 35395

Re: Cfiresim has been revised and is super easy to use.

Lauren, I just checked out the new improved version. It's great! Thanks for allowing Social Security to be entered as a monthly amount. I noticed something and don't know if it's supposed to work the way it does. When the toggle labeled "Maximum Initial Yearly Spending For 100% Success" is turned on the output dollar amount changes depending on the percentage selected in the "minimum success rate" box below it. Speaking of the minimum success rate, if one accidentally selects a rate that's greater than 100% it appears that the program goes into an endless loop. Thanks again for making such a great tool and for being so responsive to suggestions for improvements. Like the above poster, I think there's an infinite loop bu...
by lauren_knows
Thu Mar 25, 2021 7:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: cFIREsim has been revised and is super easy to use.
Replies: 257
Views: 35395

Re: Cfiresim has been revised and is super easy to use.

Question for folks in this thread: I've made it so "Pension" adjustments have the ability to add an End Year to them. This now raises the question... Is there really any difference between an "Income/Savings" adjustment and an "Pension/Annuity" adjustment? Technically speaking the answer is no. Should I consolidate the names into 1 type "Income/Savings/Pension/Annuity etc" or something like that, and describe more of the details on the tutorial page? It seems redundant to keep them all there, but I don't want to confuse people. https://i.imgur.com/R4uPPwM.png Personally, I find "Income/Savings" the most confusing. It took me a while to figure it out. Income means constant stream of money, s...
by lauren_knows
Thu Mar 25, 2021 4:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: cFIREsim has been revised and is super easy to use.
Replies: 257
Views: 35395

Re: Cfiresim has been revised and is super easy to use.

Question for folks in this thread: I've made it so "Pension" adjustments have the ability to add an End Year to them. This now raises the question... Is there really any difference between an "Income/Savings" adjustment and an "Pension/Annuity" adjustment?

Technically speaking the answer is no. Should I consolidate the names into 1 type "Income/Savings/Pension/Annuity etc" or something like that, and describe more of the details on the tutorial page? It seems redundant to keep them all there, but I don't want to confuse people.

Image
by lauren_knows
Wed Mar 24, 2021 2:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: cFIREsim has been revised and is super easy to use.
Replies: 257
Views: 35395

Re: Cfiresim has been revised and is super easy to use.

Harry Livermore wrote: Wed Mar 24, 2021 2:21 pm Great improvements! The "inputs populated from sim tab" label is handy. I created a whole bunch of tabs and that function worked flawlessly.
Why are the end dates for pensions locked? I'm trying to have my pension end at my presumed date of death (it's not a very high-dollar pension, and my wife's pension is worth 3x mine per year, so we are likely to roll the dice with the higher annual payout that has no survivor benefit)
Cheers
Huh, you know, there is no technical reason. I always viewed pensions as "for life", which is not really different from Social Security, but I really got a lot of people wanted to model SS "ending" for one spouse. No reason I can't change this... I'll check it out tonight :happy
by lauren_knows
Wed Mar 24, 2021 1:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: cFIREsim has been revised and is super easy to use.
Replies: 257
Views: 35395

Re: Cfiresim has been revised and is super easy to use.

This may be a stupid question, but I tried and tried, with zero result. How do you account for variable spending? Say I want to start withdrawing $40K first 3 years, then $60K for the rest of retirement. I did it by adding $20K in Spending in the Adjustments section on the bottom, but the output still showed I took out $40K/year for the first 5 years. Thank you very much! Personally, you are 100% doing it the way that I do, and intended it to work. The statistics page actually only goes off of the spending calculated from the "Initial Yearly Spending". I have always kept "Spending" and "Adjustments" separate. Does this group think that any "Adjustments" of type "Spending" should be added to...
by lauren_knows
Wed Mar 24, 2021 10:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: cFIREsim has been revised and is super easy to use.
Replies: 257
Views: 35395

Re: Cfiresim has been revised and is super easy to use.

This may be a stupid question, but I tried and tried, with zero result. How do you account for variable spending? Say I want to start withdrawing $40K first 3 years, then $60K for the rest of retirement. I did it by adding $20K in Spending in the Adjustments section on the bottom, but the output still showed I took out $40K/year for the first 5 years. Thank you very much! Personally, you are 100% doing it the way that I do, and intended it to work. The statistics page actually only goes off of the spending calculated from the "Initial Yearly Spending". I have always kept "Spending" and "Adjustments" separate. Does this group think that any "Adjustments" of type "Spending" should be added to...
by lauren_knows
Tue Mar 23, 2021 1:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: cFIREsim has been revised and is super easy to use.
Replies: 257
Views: 35395

Re: Cfiresim has been revised and is super easy to use.

FWIW, I took some of the suggestions in this thread and implemented them: Social Security values toggleable between Annual and Monthly On the Output page, add a "Lowest 5% and Lowest 10%" Ending portfolio row. When clicking from an output tab back to the inputs tab, reload the inputs FROM the simulation that you clicked over from. Minor UI thing: After clicking "Open Investigation" button, change the text to "Close Investigation". Also add another close investigation button. Add a "Run Simulation" button to the top of the page as well. Still on the to-do: Expandable Output charts Clean up the CSV export On the adjustments tab, have an easy way to set End Date or Start Date to "Retirement Start Da...
by lauren_knows
Sun Mar 21, 2021 8:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: cFIREsim has been revised and is super easy to use.
Replies: 257
Views: 35395

Re: Cfiresim has been revised and is super easy to use.

Thanks very much Lauren! This is a great tool, and I (too) really appreciate how easy it is to use. I saw there is a button for "rebalance annually?" but I wasn't sure what the alternative to that is-- if that isn't checked is there no rebalancing ever or rebalancing on a more frequent basis (even daily, since many people use target retirement funds)? The alternative to rebalancing is to just let your allocation drift as parts of it increase/decrease independent of the starting percentages. Also, I ran a simple example of retiring in 4 years and taking a straight $80k per year inflation-adjusted from the portfolio (no SS or other adjustments) and it told me the median withdrawal was $80k, but the average was $72k. My guess of the...
by lauren_knows
Sun Mar 21, 2021 8:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: cFIREsim has been revised and is super easy to use.
Replies: 257
Views: 35395

Re: Cfiresim has been revised and is super easy to use.

Thanks very much Lauren! This is a great tool, and I (too) really appreciate how easy it is to use. I saw there is a button for "rebalance annually?" but I wasn't sure what the alternative to that is-- if that isn't checked is there no rebalancing ever or rebalancing on a more frequent basis (even daily, since many people use target retirement funds)? The alternative to rebalancing is to just let your allocation drift as parts of it increase/decrease independent of the starting percentages. Also, I ran a simple example of retiring in 4 years and taking a straight $80k per year inflation-adjusted from the portfolio (no SS or other adjustments) and it told me the median withdrawal was $80k, but the average was $72k. My guess of the...
by lauren_knows
Sun Mar 21, 2021 8:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: cFIREsim has been revised and is super easy to use.
Replies: 257
Views: 35395

Re: Cfiresim has been revised and is super easy to use.

mtwhmemn wrote: Sun Mar 21, 2021 8:14 am May be a stupid question, but in cfiresim.com how do you calculate the number that goes in the "SS Annual Value ($):" field? Is it a monthly beginning benefit number from ssa.gov?
Yeah, you're going to want to go to the "MySSA" section of ssa.gov, and it will give you benefits estimates based on your employment record. You can even use their tool to estimate "future" income if you think your income will significantly increase or decrease before age 62 (like I change the average to simulate retiring early, since you won't be contributing to your SSA benefit after retiring)

-Lauren
by lauren_knows
Sun Mar 21, 2021 5:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: cFIREsim has been revised and is super easy to use.
Replies: 257
Views: 35395

Re: Cfiresim has been revised and is super easy to use. (It's based on Firecalc)

Again, it sounds like the cfiresim dev is an upstanding person and is not selling information (it’s not even clear if it is being saved). But even if someone is a good actor, if the information is saved then it’s also possible for the information to be hacked/stolen. So where possible I prefer open source code, not-for-profit organizations like Bogleheads with a strong charter, or paid services if they offer a strong privacy guarantee. This was more of a response to the “open source is bad” and to further the discussion of how and what can be collected from these types of websites. I'm not sure where you're going with it. The author already came out and said "I'm not tracking/selling anything (outside of saving inputs so you can come ...
by lauren_knows
Sat Mar 20, 2021 1:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: cFIREsim has been revised and is super easy to use.
Replies: 257
Views: 35395

Re: Cfiresim has been revised and is super easy to use. (It's based on Firecalc)

So the open source version has less features but doesn’t track IP and save your personal information? I’m guessing Portfolio Visualizer saves everything people input into it too, so don’t mean to be facetious. But if something is free, more often than not oneself becomes the product. The open-source version just isn't maintained anymore. I re-wrote it in a different language. I actually LOVE that quote that you paraphrased "If you're not paying for a product, you ARE the product", and you have no reason to believe me, but this is entirely a passion project for me. I'm not tracking/selling anything (outside of saving inputs so you can come back to the same simulation with a link). I've been FIRE-minded for years and do not need th...
by lauren_knows
Sat Mar 20, 2021 1:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: cFIREsim has been revised and is super easy to use.
Replies: 257
Views: 35395

Re: Cfiresim has been revised and is super easy to use.

nigel_ht wrote: Sat Mar 20, 2021 9:59 am Is there enough interest and/or traffic to have a fire subforum? I tend to subscribe to FIRE ones I see but it’s hit or miss.
I mean, I'm biased because I seek out FIRE communities vs straight up investing ones, but there is a large enough community out there that I think it would be popular. However, each set of forums on the internet has its own "vibe", and I can't tell you whether Bogleheads would have a thriving FIRE subforum or not... but I would encourage it.
by lauren_knows
Fri Mar 19, 2021 1:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: cFIREsim has been revised and is super easy to use.
Replies: 257
Views: 35395

Re: Cfiresim has been revised and is super easy to use.

A couple ideas for your consideration: When I run a sim I can click back on the Input Tab to see what the parameters were. But if I change parameters, maybe to adjust an annuity amount or retirement year, etc., and run the sim it opens a new sim tab. Now if I go back to look at the first sim I can not tell what the inputs were for that sim, only for the latest sim. So if I want to run 5 or 6 sims testing for variations in input it's great to be able to compare the results, but I always forget exactly what the inputs were on the previous sims. So I wonder if the input numbers could be copied to each sim tab in some kind of simple text format and maybe placed in the empty area down to the right of the Single Portfolio Dips area? That way eve...
by lauren_knows
Fri Mar 19, 2021 10:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: cFIREsim has been revised and is super easy to use.
Replies: 257
Views: 35395

Re: Cfiresim has been revised and is super easy to use.

What I do not understand is this "banning" stuff on another forum (which I heard of but do not participate in). How, and especially WHY does that happen? Isn't more information sharing better for everyone? Can someone who is familiar with the matter explain it to me? It's a private, moderated forum, just like this one. The moderators make the rules. Since they are the "unofficial" home of FIREcalc, the mods have chosen to exclude discussion of the merits of that tool versus all others. How: They added the names of some tools to the "naughty words list". Forums like this can use a list to ban certain words. Some forums automatically delete posts containing bad words. Other forums replace the words with *****. A...
by lauren_knows
Fri Mar 19, 2021 9:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: cFIREsim has been revised and is super easy to use.
Replies: 257
Views: 35395

Re: Cfiresim has been revised and is super easy to use.

prd1982 wrote: Fri Mar 19, 2021 9:42 am Average ending portfolio.
Image

For further clarification, you think that the first column on the output page (Ending Portfolio), could use some percentile categories in addition to the Average, Median, St. Deviation, Highest, Lowest? Seems reasonable to tack on a couple more categories (also easy)
by lauren_knows
Fri Mar 19, 2021 9:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Credit Suisse Global Investment Returns Yearbook - Full dataset?
Replies: 3
Views: 986

Credit Suisse Global Investment Returns Yearbook - Full dataset?

I know that folx are familiar with the Credit Suisse Global Investment Returns Yearbook.

https://www.credit-suisse.com/about-us- ... 2103.html

I can find references to it in a lot of places, I see the free pdf for the “summary” version, I see an ISBN for the actual book, but I cannot for the life of me find the FULL version that includes all of the data tables they reference. I want the raw data for the claimed "120 years of data". Does anyone know where I can get that, free or otherwise?