Search found 193 matches

by Frank2012
Wed Aug 16, 2023 2:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Summers Sees 10-Year Yields Averaging 4.75% in Coming Decade
Replies: 12
Views: 2459

Summers Sees 10-Year Yields Averaging 4.75% in Coming Decade

According to Larry Summers, “looking at 4.75 on the 10-year — and it obviously could end up being higher than that."

The Bloomberg article is behind a paywall, but here is the link:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... #xj4y7vzkg

Yikes, and my bond funds already took a beating! :oops:
by Frank2012
Tue May 02, 2023 2:12 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: 55+ Communities in Charlotte, North Carolina: Any Tips?
Replies: 14
Views: 2457

Re: 55+ Communities in Charlotte, North Carolina: Any Tips?

My wife and I are interested in relocating to North Carolina to be with family, and we are interested in buying a home in a 55+ community near Charlotte. We're in the early phase of our due diligence, but so far came up with the list below of 55+ communities near Charlotte: 1. Cresswind Charlotte 2. Sun City Carolina Lakes 3. Regency at Palisades 4. Trilogy Lake Norman 5. The Vineyards on Lake Wylie 6. 3 Cherry Way 7. Imagery 8. The Farm at Ingleside 9. The Polo Club at Weddington 10. The Cypress of Charlotte 11. Troon at Ballantyne 12. Southminster 13. Carmel Place 14. Brightmore of South Charlotte If any Bogleheads are living in any of these 55+ communities, would you be willing to share your experience? Are you happy with the community?...
by Frank2012
Mon Apr 24, 2023 11:18 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: 55+ Communities in Charlotte, North Carolina: Any Tips?
Replies: 14
Views: 2457

55+ Communities in Charlotte, North Carolina: Any Tips?

My wife and I are interested in relocating to North Carolina to be with family, and we are interested in buying a home in a 55+ community near Charlotte. We're in the early phase of our due diligence, but so far came up with the list below of 55+ communities near Charlotte: 1. Cresswind Charlotte 2. Sun City Carolina Lakes 3. Regency at Palisades 4. Trilogy Lake Norman 5. The Vineyards on Lake Wylie 6. 3 Cherry Way 7. Imagery 8. The Farm at Ingleside 9. The Polo Club at Weddington 10. The Cypress of Charlotte 11. Troon at Ballantyne 12. Southminster 13. Carmel Place 14. Brightmore of South Charlotte If any Bogleheads are living in any of these 55+ communities, would you be willing to share your experience? Are you happy with the community? ...
by Frank2012
Tue Oct 25, 2022 10:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Now that long TIPS yields are 60 bp off their highs I will…
Replies: 2937
Views: 611646

Re: Now that long TIPS hit a real yield above 2.0% I will…

[I’ve updated the thread title] Here is a personal update, since we are discussing actions to take now that long TIPS yields have hit 2.0%. Because I am not anonymous on the forum, I’ll use idealized dollar amounts to describe what I have done and what I am thinking to do next. Assume I started the year with a million dollar portfolio allocated 60/40 (neither is true but this will serve for illustration). After a few weeks of buying LTPZ, I now have a 60/30/10 portfolio, with the latter in long TIPS. The $100,000 in LTPZ now shows a loss of a couple of thousand dollars, since I pulled the trigger early when long TIPS hit 1.77% (“do not let the perfect be the enemy of the good”). But that’s immaterial. To get there I emptied all my short- a...
by Frank2012
Sat Oct 08, 2022 4:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Update: 700 Years of Falling Interest Rates, 1311-2021
Replies: 44
Views: 6506

Re: Update: 700 Years of Falling Interest Rates, 1311-2021

If this research is true, is it actionable? What is new in this research is the statistical identification of a stationary , declining trend in real interest rates (-0.016% per year), a falling trend line that rates have tended to revert back towards over long periods. What's actionable is that investors in the 21st century should not have expectations that real interest rates will revert back to their historical averages of the 20th century (say 3% or 4%) — but rather should expect that real rates will remain low, perhaps becoming negative, for extended periods in the decades ahead. Shorter periods of higher real rates can and will occur (like today), but the persistent trend is toward low real rates. Excellent post and thread, thanks!
by Frank2012
Fri Oct 07, 2022 5:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Update: 700 Years of Falling Interest Rates, 1311-2021
Replies: 44
Views: 6506

Re: Update: 700 Years of Falling Interest Rates, 1311-2021

This post reports on a new follow-up paper to the groundbreaking 2019 study of the "supra-secular" decline in real interest rates over 700 years, since the 14th century (chart below). The original paper is discussed in this Forum thread . https://i.imgur.com/RjFV5U4.jpg Note: Trend line in black is GDP-weighted among countries. Chart source: The Economist While the original paper was quite readable, this follow-up paper is more statistically oriented. Some key findings: 1. Global real, long-term rates exhibit a gentle but firm downward trend (averaging about -1.6% every 100 years), and the evidence is strongly consistent with the hypothesis that they are stationary around this trend. In other words, rates tended to mean revert ar...
by Frank2012
Tue Aug 02, 2022 6:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stocks for the Long Haul? Maybe Not.
Replies: 146
Views: 21495

Re: Stocks for the Long Haul? Maybe Not.

This is an interesting discussion. It was stimulated by Ben Felix commenting on an article that reevaluated Jeremy Siegel's "stocks for the long run" hypothesis that stocks consistently outperform bonds and that substantial exposure to the stock market is essential to growing your wealth. Here is the link to the paper in question: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3805927 This paper was written by Edward F. McQuarrie. He is listed as Professor Emeritus of the Leavey School of Business at Santa Clara University. Unfortunately, the paper is not peer reviewed. McQuarrie reports a series of articles in which he, with the help of others, did painstaking work to correct shortcomings in the data that Seigel used for hi...
by Frank2012
Wed Jul 20, 2022 2:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Total Bond Market Index Fund -- A Very Unusual Occurrence
Replies: 223
Views: 72885

Re: Total Bond Market Index Fund -- A Very Unusual Occurrence

Bogleheads: We are experiencing a very unusual occurrence in the bond market: Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Fund (VBTLX) is down -10.3%. Since inception Vanguard Total Bond Market Index worst annual return was -2.9% in 1994 . It is reassuring to know that in 1995 (the following year) Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Fund gained +18.5% . Past performance does not forecast future performance. Stay the course. Taylor Jack Bogle's Words of Wisdom: "Stay the Course. No matter what happens, stick to your program. I've said "Stay the course" a thousand times, and I meant it every time. It is the most important single piece of investment wisdom I can give to you." Well, we are living in historic times, but I'm staying the co...
by Frank2012
Tue Jul 19, 2022 8:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bonds - Throw it all on the table!
Replies: 499
Views: 92676

Re: Bonds - Throw it all on the table!!!

abuss368 wrote: Mon Jul 18, 2022 10:54 pm Bogleheads -

In light of the current interest rate environment, this is an opportune time for updated thoughts and strategies.

Please share.

Best.
Tony
I agree!

Who knows what the future holds, but when 10-year treasuries yield above 3%, it seems that bonds once again provide ballast to a stock heavy portfolio. So I'm continuing my investments in FUAMX (Fidelity Treasury Bond Fund) come what may.

Good luck to all!
by Frank2012
Wed Jul 13, 2022 3:16 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Management Fee is 45% for Condo Rental
Replies: 41
Views: 5603

Re: Management Fee is 45% for Condo Rental

Are you required to use the condo association's property management service for rentals? If so, you can either accept it and purchase the condo you are considering or look elsewhere. If you are not required to use their service, contact other property management companies in the area and find out their fee structure. Have you looked at other condos and ascertained how they handle property management services for rentals, including their fee structures? Just find out what you can expect to pay for property management on each of the actual condos you are considering and include that in your calculations. That information and those calculations will be a lot more helpful, IMO, than the opinions/experiences of others about whether the particul...
by Frank2012
Wed Jul 13, 2022 3:06 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Management Fee is 45% for Condo Rental
Replies: 41
Views: 5603

Re: Management Fee is 45% for Condo Rental

JoeRetire wrote: Sat Jul 09, 2022 7:50 am
Frank2012 wrote: Fri Jul 08, 2022 4:31 pmthe condo HOA fees are very low, so perhaps the 45% subsidizes the HOA?
That seems unlikely.

But if the management fee is made artificially high so that it could subsidize the HOA, that would imply that you could find a lower management fee elsewhere.
You turned out to be correct...the management fee is completely separate and has nothing to do or any impact with the HOA. Thanks
by Frank2012
Fri Jul 08, 2022 4:31 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Management Fee is 45% for Condo Rental
Replies: 41
Views: 5603

Re: Management Fee is 45% for Condo Rental

JoeRetire wrote: Fri Jul 08, 2022 3:59 pm
Frank2012 wrote: Fri Jul 08, 2022 10:47 am
Yes, they basically "do it all"...change the sheets, clean the condo, handle emergency maintanance. So I would say it would be stress free for 45%.
Seems like they will be doing a lot, and quite often - perhaps up to 7 times per week.

Can you find someone else to do an equally good job for less?
If not, then 45% is a "good deal", or at least "good enough".
Yes, that's what I am thinking...also, the condo HOA fees are very low, so perhaps the 45% subsidizes the HOA? Not sure, but looking into it. But at this point, the 45% is looking more reasonable to me.
by Frank2012
Fri Jul 08, 2022 12:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Treasury Yield 10 Years (^TNX) dropping
Replies: 23
Views: 3184

Re: Treasury Yield 10 Years (^TNX) dropping

rockstar wrote: Fri Jul 08, 2022 11:57 am
Frank2012 wrote: Fri Jul 08, 2022 7:49 am Bam! Just like that, treasury yields are RISING due to today's U.S. Employment Report:

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/08/10-year ... -data.html
Wait until the CPI comes out next week.
Yep...if CPI comes in hot, I would expect 10-year yields to go way up. Might be a good buying opportunity to add to my treasury bond fund (FUAMX) if that happens....
by Frank2012
Fri Jul 08, 2022 11:59 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Management Fee is 45% for Condo Rental
Replies: 41
Views: 5603

Re: Management Fee is 45% for Condo Rental

Designairohio wrote: Fri Jul 08, 2022 11:53 am I had a cabin in Gatlinburg Tn, sold it 5 yrs ago. 40% was normal for all the management companies in the area, they changed sheets and lined up the cleaners, did quality control inspections, met the fire Marshall, handled all tenant complaints, all advertising, check in check out. We covered our mortgage but that was about it.
We still spent money out of pocket for any upgrades, maintenance and decorating.
Ken
Thanks Ken/Designairohio, that pretty much sums up what the management company would be doing for the condo we are considering. Completely turnkey rental, and we wouldn't have to do a thing.
by Frank2012
Fri Jul 08, 2022 10:47 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Management Fee is 45% for Condo Rental
Replies: 41
Views: 5603

Re: Management Fee is 45% for Condo Rental

alex_686 wrote: Fri Jul 08, 2022 10:40 am What does the fee cover? Without knowing that it is impossible to say if it is a good value or not?

Do they handle booking? Check in? Customer complaints? Basic services like changing the sheets? Overview in case the renters trash the place? Who handles the midnight call when somebody flushes a diaper down the drain? etc.

I might find a 55% cut that was stress free from my unused property attractive. I am assuming this is akin to Air BnB.
Yes, they basically "do it all"...change the sheets, clean the condo, handle emergency maintanance. So I would say it would be stress free for 45%...you make a good point, I hadn't considered the value of "stress free"....
by Frank2012
Fri Jul 08, 2022 10:43 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Management Fee is 45% for Condo Rental
Replies: 41
Views: 5603

Re: Management Fee is 45% for Condo Rental

A fairly standard arrangement is 10% of rent + 1 months' rent every time there is a new occupant. The problem you have is that you want to do short-term rental with you using the property several times a year. So a rental agent will need to know in advance when it is to be rented and for how long. This adds a lot of time and expense to the process. You can also expect lots of unrented days. The condo I lived in would not allow rentals for less than 6 months. It sounds as if the property is managed and rented by a single firm on behalf of the BOD. So for long-term rentals, this is extravagant. For multiple 1 week or 2–3-day rentals it is probably reasonable. It's in a touristy area where the rentals would be 1-3 days and at most 1 week. I w...
by Frank2012
Fri Jul 08, 2022 10:42 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Management Fee is 45% for Condo Rental
Replies: 41
Views: 5603

Re: Management Fee is 45% for Condo Rental

Are you required to use the condo association's property management service for rentals? If so, you can either accept it and purchase the condo you are considering or look elsewhere. If you are not required to use their service, contact other property management companies in the area and find out their fee structure. Have you looked at other condos and ascertained how they handle property management services for rentals, including their fee structures? Just find out what you can expect to pay for property management on each of the actual condos you are considering and include that in your calculations. That information and those calculations will be a lot more helpful, IMO, than the opinions/experiences of others about whether the particul...
by Frank2012
Fri Jul 08, 2022 10:22 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Management Fee is 45% for Condo Rental
Replies: 41
Views: 5603

Re: Management Fee is 45% for Condo Rental

Dottie57 wrote: Fri Jul 08, 2022 10:10 am
Frank2012 wrote: Fri Jul 08, 2022 10:07 am DW and I are looking to buy a condo in a touristy part of the U.S. that would like to rent out when we're not using. We would prefer a management service to handle renting the unit to vacationers. The condo association has a management service but the management fee is 45%. Does anyone know if this fee is standard or is it excessive?

Thanks!
Why would you fork out almost half the rent? Why are you buying?
We're thinking of buying to periodically live in the condo part of the year. We would like to NOT fork over almost half the rent, that's why I'm asking to see if their are any Bogleheads with experience in this area. 45% seems excessive to me as well...
by Frank2012
Fri Jul 08, 2022 10:07 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Management Fee is 45% for Condo Rental
Replies: 41
Views: 5603

Management Fee is 45% for Condo Rental

DW and I are looking to buy a condo in a touristy part of the U.S. that would like to rent out when we're not using. We would prefer a management service to handle renting the unit to vacationers. The condo association has a management service but the management fee is 45%. Does anyone know if this fee is standard or is it excessive?

Edit: The condo is in a touristy area where the rentals would be 1-3 days and at most 1 week. So no long term rentals, just tourists staying for a few days vacation.

Thanks!
by Frank2012
Fri Jul 08, 2022 9:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Winning the game and investing in Fixed Income
Replies: 272
Views: 37251

Re: Winning the game and investing in Fixed Income

From my personal perspective, if you have "won the game" then maintaining purchasing power is more important than realizing gains because you aren't dependent on gains (returns above 0% real) for your retirement plan to work. Because of this I see no reason to take on risk in the Fixed Income allocation of my portfolio, instead I prefer that any risk I take be in the equity allocation of my portfolio. As far as if it matters or not once someone achieves some level savings, in most cases likely not but if it doesn't matter why take the risk of 70s style inflationary environment. Hopefully this outlines the way I am approaching this. I would not think where you take the risk is as important as what the overall risk is. Remember if ...
by Frank2012
Fri Jul 08, 2022 7:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Treasury Yield 10 Years (^TNX) dropping
Replies: 23
Views: 3184

Re: Treasury Yield 10 Years (^TNX) dropping

Bam! Just like that, treasury yields are RISING due to today's U.S. Employment Report:

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/08/10-year ... -data.html
by Frank2012
Thu Jul 07, 2022 7:38 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Bonds?
Replies: 17
Views: 3141

Re: Bonds?

Are bond funds still the way to go? Sorry to be "that guy" but where you want to go is the most important part of deciding the best way to get there. Want to go to an island without a landing pad or an airstrip? Sounds like a boat is 'the way to go'. Then again, if you want to take your kids to school in the morning because they missed the bus, a boat probably won't do you a lot of good (sorry if I just marginalized someone who uses a boat to take their kids to school - no offense intended :wink: ). So, what do you want to do with this money you are considering putting into bonds? When do you want it to be available to be spent, and how certain is your timeline? How safe does this money need to be? How much money is there to be i...
by Frank2012
Tue Jul 05, 2022 1:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Treasury Yield 10 Years (^TNX) dropping
Replies: 23
Views: 3184

Re: Treasury Yield 10 Years (^TNX) dropping

Can a Boglehead explain the theory behind why the Treasury Yield 10 Years (^TNX) been dropping the pass few market days? Paul So here's my theory: 1. A few weeks back the 10 year treasury yield hit 3.5% due to investor concerns that the Fed would raise rates and ease up on Quantitative Easing (which would then be Quantitative Tightening)...so investors sold off bonds, thus increasing yields. 2. But then, a few weeks go by, and investors are now worried about recession, and so start buying treasuries as "insurance" against stocks dropping; therefore, investors started buying treasuries like crazy and the yield goes down. So, my theory is: Investors are now buying bonds because they are more worried about a recession than they are ...
by Frank2012
Tue Jul 05, 2022 11:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Treasury Yield 10 Years (^TNX) dropping
Replies: 23
Views: 3184

Re: Treasury Yield 10 Years (^TNX) dropping

Can a Boglehead explain the theory behind why the Treasury Yield 10 Years (^TNX) been dropping the pass few market days? Paul So here's my theory: 1. A few weeks back the 10 year treasury yield hit 3.5% due to investor concerns that the Fed would raise rates and ease up on Quantitative Easing (which would then be Quantitative Tightening)...so investors sold off bonds, thus increasing yields. 2. But then, a few weeks go by, and investors are now worried about recession, and so start buying treasuries as "insurance" against stocks dropping; therefore, investors started buying treasuries like crazy and the yield goes down. So, my theory is: Investors are now buying bonds because they are more worried about a recession than they are ...
by Frank2012
Tue Jun 28, 2022 9:12 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: how would you invest money in fixed income now?
Replies: 28
Views: 6275

Re: how would you invest money in fixed income now?

The key here is "for a year". If you are going to spend the money in a year, you don't want it in a long-term bond fund that could gain or lose more than 10% if interest rates fall or rise. A one-year CD would be appropriate, or in a high tax bracket, something like Vanguard Short-Term Tax-Exempt with a one-year duration. ... OTOH, intermediate-term bond funds such as Vanguard Total US Bond Market Index fund have lost about 11% YTD. It would be unprecedented wouldn't it if the fund lost another 10%? I think the probability that this fund goes up 5% in the next year is much higher than if it is down 5% from here a year from now. I concur...seems like 10-year treasury at 3.2% yield is a buying opportunity...maybe with yields above ...
by Frank2012
Tue Jun 21, 2022 9:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What made you get rid of your funny money?
Replies: 58
Views: 7048

Re: What made you get rid of your funny money?

I got rid of my fun money because picking stocks became very stressful for me, and I picked one too may clunkers for it to make my winners worth it. Bottom line, the juice was not worth the squeeze.
by Frank2012
Tue Jun 21, 2022 9:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: ex-US Stocks Continue to Soar!
Replies: 574
Views: 72004

Re: ex-US Stocks Continue to Soar!

Robot Monster wrote: Tue Jun 21, 2022 9:19 am The weather: cloudy, with a chance of this thread getting locked.
I honestly don't get the point of this thread anymore, and will likely stop peeking at it. Nothing actionable, just jokes it seems....
by Frank2012
Mon Jun 13, 2022 11:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Silver lining in stock market crash?
Replies: 48
Views: 6269

Re: Silver lining in stock market crash?

For anyone in or near retirement, high heavy inflation rates combined with stock market crash has to be super worrisome! According to this CNBC article, you can expect any money you have in CDs or money market to halve its value in 8 to 8.5 years: https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/10/how-does-inflation-impact-your-savings-the-rule-of-72-may-help.html The only way to survive this inflation rate is to invest in stock market. How convenient then, that the stock market is making it easier for you to get on board, by offering a 20% discount (SPY trading 20% below its peak)? I was about 50% stock and 50% money market (thankfully I avoided the bond crash). Now moving more of my money into stocks. It is scary because the 2008 crash happened over multip...
by Frank2012
Mon Jun 13, 2022 10:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 36221
Views: 4652275

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Robot Monster wrote: Mon Jun 13, 2022 10:23 am
dreambig wrote: Mon Jun 13, 2022 10:03 am A lot of market timers here on a forum that preaches time in the market. As recalled in several places, there were countless "warnings" that never materialized. Maybe some of you got lucky this time, but you're playing a losing game in the long run.
Okay, I'll play the time in the market game. Will deploy dry powder...
I think you should do it. In fact, I might buy SP500 index or add to my treasury mutual fund today....
by Frank2012
Mon Jun 13, 2022 9:39 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Lost 1 million ! Any body else in same boat ? Looking for some reassurance
Replies: 394
Views: 59525

Re: Lost 1 million ! Any body else in same boat ? Looking for some reassurance

As of last week , YTD - I am down 1 million in my portfolio, which is about 17% of value of my overall portfolio from beginning of year I am holding course and continuing to buy at my asset allocation of 65/35 I went through 2008 and held on in spite of losses but did not lose this much as I had much lower assets Anybody else lost this much? Are you doing anything different ? I've lost more in this bear market than any previous bear market. But that doesn't change what I do in this bear market. I'll do the same thing I did before. I actually calculated my loss in 2008. It was $78,000. Not sure I'll do that this time. Definitely down a 7 figure amount though from the peak. Never really expected to tax loss harvest bond funds for any signifi...
by Frank2012
Mon Jun 13, 2022 8:02 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Time to short bonds and buy commodities?
Replies: 37
Views: 4620

Re: Time to short bonds and buy commodities?

Interesting that some folks want to short bonds and buy commodities. I want to buy bonds as yields surge and price craters. Same goes for my cratering shares in international and SP500 indexes. So I plan to continue investing and do annual rebalancing per my IPS.
by Frank2012
Mon Jun 13, 2022 7:43 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Lost 1 million ! Any body else in same boat ? Looking for some reassurance
Replies: 394
Views: 59525

Re: Lost 1 million ! Any body else in same boat ? Looking for some reassurance

Misa.1 wrote: Mon Jun 13, 2022 6:47 am Look at it from a different perspective. You still have your shares. And because you don’t need to sell any of them for the next ten years, who cares what their current price is?
Love this comment! :sharebeer
by Frank2012
Fri Jun 10, 2022 10:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bonds: What Are They Doing? Are They Doing Things?? Let's Find Out!
Replies: 2297
Views: 256261

Re: Bonds: What Are They Doing? Are They Doing Things?? Let's Find Out!

Are bonds doing anything today? :twisted: Yields are going to the moon. I'm liking 5 year TIPS now held to maturity. Then you'd probably like a 20 year TIPS held to maturity even better! I bought some 10 year TIPS at the last auction. I don't like long duration. I'll probably buy some 5 year TIPS in the near future. I'm aiming for 10-20% in TIPS with the shortest positive yielding duration I can get. I don't expect 10 years of high inflation. However, we may end at 3% inflation as the bottom, rather than 2%. You don't need 10 years of "high inflation" for a 20 year TIPS (yielding 0.81% real) to generate a higher return than a 5 year TIPS (yielding 0.09% real). I am going to cross my fingers and hope the 3 fund portfolio is not ob...
by Frank2012
Mon Jun 06, 2022 4:04 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: please explain tax loss harvesting
Replies: 169
Views: 21535

Re: please explain tax loss harvesting

So if someone bought VTI in an IRA and taxable within the last 30 days on the same day, then sells at a loss all the shares in taxable only (leaving VTI alone in the IRA) and leaves it in cash for example, the shares in the IRA would make it a wash sale correct? Yes. You bought VTI in the IRA within 30 days of selling VTI in taxable for a loss. Since you still own VTI in the IRA you have a wash sale. If all the shares in both the IRA and the taxable account were sold and replaced with say VT, that would also be a wash sale? No. If ALL the shares in both accounts were sold the taxable loss would not create a wash sale because you sold all the "replacement" shares. And VT is not "substantially identical" to VTI. And lastl...
by Frank2012
Mon Jun 06, 2022 11:56 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: please explain tax loss harvesting
Replies: 169
Views: 21535

Re: please explain tax loss harvesting

So if someone bought VTI in an IRA and taxable within the last 30 days on the same day, then sells at a loss all the shares in taxable only (leaving VTI alone in the IRA) and leaves it in cash for example, the shares in the IRA would make it a wash sale correct? Yes. You bought VTI in the IRA within 30 days of selling VTI in taxable for a loss. Since you still own VTI in the IRA you have a wash sale. If all the shares in both the IRA and the taxable account were sold and replaced with say VT, that would also be a wash sale? No. If ALL the shares in both accounts were sold the taxable loss would not create a wash sale because you sold all the "replacement" shares. And VT is not "substantially identical" to VTI. And lastl...
by Frank2012
Mon Jun 06, 2022 11:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bonds: What Are They Doing? Are They Doing Things?? Let's Find Out!
Replies: 2297
Views: 256261

Re: Bonds: What Are They Doing? Are They Doing Things?? Let's Find Out!

Tom_T wrote: Mon Jun 06, 2022 11:04 am
Frank2012 wrote: Mon Jun 06, 2022 9:56 am Well, as of 10:45am today the 10-year treasury has a 3.018% yield. Anyone see this as a buying opportunity, or a pitstop on the way to 4%?
It hit 3.13% on May 9. By May 27 it dropped to 2.72%. Good example of how trying to predict rates is like throwing darts.
As hard as picking stocks, it seems...
by Frank2012
Mon Jun 06, 2022 10:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bonds: What Are They Doing? Are They Doing Things?? Let's Find Out!
Replies: 2297
Views: 256261

Re: Bonds: What Are They Doing? Are They Doing Things?? Let's Find Out!

dbr wrote: Mon Jun 06, 2022 10:08 am
Frank2012 wrote: Mon Jun 06, 2022 9:56 am Well, as of 10:45am today the 10-year treasury has a 3.018% yield. Anyone see this as a buying opportunity, or a pitstop on the way to 4%?
I don't think it is productive to try to guess future interest rates. A practical alternative is to acquire and hold a Treasury bond index fund over decades of accumulation and deaccumulation. Maybe choosing a TIPS fund over a Treasury fund would be prudent if the objective is saving and investing for retirement.

If your investment is being held for a certain planned purpose ten or so years from now, you will have to take your chances.
Yes, that is true and I just keep buying into BND and FUAMX and let the chips fall where the may.
by Frank2012
Mon Jun 06, 2022 9:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bonds: What Are They Doing? Are They Doing Things?? Let's Find Out!
Replies: 2297
Views: 256261

Re: Bonds: What Are They Doing? Are They Doing Things?? Let's Find Out!

Well, as of 10:45am today the 10-year treasury has a 3.018% yield. Anyone see this as a buying opportunity, or a pitstop on the way to 4%?
by Frank2012
Wed Jun 01, 2022 7:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What if you were forced to use only Bonds/Fixed Income?
Replies: 73
Views: 8959

Re: What if you were forced to use only Bonds/Fixed Income?

If I were forced to use only one bond fund, it would be FUAMX (Fidelity Intermediate Treasury).
by Frank2012
Sat May 28, 2022 3:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: is share value of bond funds leveling out ?
Replies: 36
Views: 3573

Re: is share value of bond funds leveling out ?

But...the Fed is also reducing assets on its balance sheet starting in June and continuing for the next 3 months...won't all this selling of treasuries and mortgage backed securities have an impact on bonds and bond funds...and wouldn't that impact be to drive up yields furthering the losses to us long-suffering bond holders? Yes, it will increase yields, but the important question is how much. And the answer is not a lot. There's been a lot of research on the effects of quantitative easing on longer term yields. The general consensus is about 0.20%. That is, when the Fed was purchasing $80 billion in Treasuries per month, it depressed yields by about 0.20%. When the Fed stopped purchasing Treasuries, in its gradual taper from last Decembe...
by Frank2012
Sat May 28, 2022 9:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: is share value of bond funds leveling out ?
Replies: 36
Views: 3573

Re: is share value of bond funds leveling out ?

It's not true that interest rates are very likely to experience further significant increases. I've said it all along, most of you folks are taking the Fed words at face value, and that is a very big mistake. The Fed doesn't know what the Fed is going to do. It will depend on what actual inflation numbers (and other economic data) are as the data comes in. The bigger mistake is those who think that the yields on 3 year, 5 year, 10 year, etc. bonds had not already priced in the Fed expectations and that future changes to those yields would be based on changes in Fed expectations and Fed actions that differ from those expectations. IF there is a rate hike in July, it's only going to be 0.25%. Expectations are still for 50 BP at the next meet...
by Frank2012
Sat May 28, 2022 9:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: is share value of bond funds leveling out ?
Replies: 36
Views: 3573

Re: is share value of bond funds leveling out ?

jeffyscott wrote: Sat May 28, 2022 8:50 am
Frank2012 wrote: Sat May 28, 2022 8:11 amBut...the Fed is also reducing assets on its balance sheet starting in June and continuing for the next 3 months...won't all this selling of treasuries and mortgage backed securities have an impact on bonds and bond funds...and wouldn't that impact be to drive up yields furthering the losses to us long-suffering bond holders?
It already has, everyone knows that is the expectation. Those who actively trade and, therefore, set the prices at which they are willing to buy/sell bonds have been bidding accordingly.

Now if they do something different from those expectations (or the expectations of what they are going to do changes) then that would affect the prices at the time it happens.
Agree with your post, thanks!
by Frank2012
Sat May 28, 2022 8:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: is share value of bond funds leveling out ?
Replies: 36
Views: 3573

Re: is share value of bond funds leveling out ?

It's not true that interest rates are very likely to experience further significant increases. I've said it all along, most of you folks are taking the Fed words at face value, and that is a very big mistake. The Fed doesn't know what the Fed is going to do. It will depend on what actual inflation numbers (and other economic data) are as the data comes in. The bigger mistake is those who think that the yields on 3 year, 5 year, 10 year, etc. bonds had not already priced in the Fed expectations and that future changes to those yields would be based on changes in Fed expectations and Fed actions that differ from those expectations. IF there is a rate hike in July, it's only going to be 0.25%. Expectations are still for 50 BP at the next meet...
by Frank2012
Sun May 22, 2022 8:24 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: When stocks and bonds drop at the same time, what do you do?
Replies: 98
Views: 12714

Re: When stocks and bonds drop at the same time, what do you do?

What do I do? Unfortunately, I have concluded that I cannot trust my decisions, so I just follow my IPS and rebalance when 5% band is kicked. In the past, I've traded stocks, gone in an out of cash, and other market timing escapades, and always came up short. So now I have an asset allocation that I'm comfortable with, and I don't tinker.
by Frank2012
Sat May 14, 2022 8:39 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What is the BEST thing you spent money on?
Replies: 461
Views: 69270

Re: What is the BEST thing you spent money on?

Lifetime access to Bogleheads Forum :sharebeer
by Frank2012
Wed May 04, 2022 12:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bonds: What Are They Doing? Are They Doing Things?? Let's Find Out!
Replies: 2297
Views: 256261

Re: Bonds: What Are They Doing? Are They Doing Things?? Let's Find Out!

000 wrote: Tue Feb 16, 2021 5:16 pm Edit May 03, 2022: Changed title from "Bonds in free fall" to "Bonds: What Are They Doing? Are They Doing Things?? Let's Find Out!" as suggested here.
--

I like the new title better than "Bonds in free fall"...but any title is better than "The Final, Definitive Thread on Brokerage Transfer Bonuses" :sharebeer
by Frank2012
Wed May 04, 2022 11:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: what sets the NAV of a bond fund?
Replies: 13
Views: 947

Re: what sets the NAV of a bond fund?

alex_686 wrote: Wed May 04, 2022 11:14 am
Frank2012 wrote: Wed May 04, 2022 11:09 am So if we are basing NAV on arms length trade data, then wouldn't a bond ETF be priced more accurately than a bond mutual fund?
I tend to think so. Actually, I tend to think that ETF pricing is of a higher quality than mutual fund pricing in general - not just for bonds. However this is a nuanced subject. Both methods are of high quality. You really need to dig into the weeds on how things are priced and pick apart why and how they fail.
That's interesting. I sometimes worry when an ETF price goes below NAV, but then again, I would agree that arms length trade data would be better than accountants who could make an error. So seems like the issue of an ETF trading below NAV...is really a non-issue.
by Frank2012
Wed May 04, 2022 11:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bonds: What Are They Doing? Are They Doing Things?? Let's Find Out!
Replies: 2297
Views: 256261

Re: Bonds in free fall

000 wrote: Tue May 03, 2022 4:06 pm
Frank2012 wrote: Tue May 03, 2022 7:23 am So does bonds leading stocks mean first bonds go down hard, and then eventually stocks go down hard as well?
Yes that is what I mean by that phrase.
If that is your thesis (which is perfectly reasonable), what does an investor do about it? Go to cash...or just stay the course and rebalance?
Probably stay the course and rebalance unless the investor had already decided on a different strategy as their long term investment plan. As for myself, I am looking not to sell bonds, but to buy more bonds.
Crazy times we are living in!!
Yep. 8-)

Hmmmm...so if you're looking to buy bonds, what is your buy price? Will you pounce when the 10-year treasury yield around 3.5%? Or just do by regular rebalancing?